The following 18 Michigan football players are participating in the 2024 NFL Combine. That's a record number of players invited to the Combine for any school. They are:
- QB J.J. McCarthy
- RB Blake Corum
- WR Cornelius Johnson
- WR Roman Wilson
- TE A.J. Barner
- OL Karsen Barnhart
- OL La'Darius Henderson
- OL Trente Jones
- OL Trevor Keegan
- OL Drake Nugent
- OL Zak Zinter
- EDGE Jaylen Harrell
- EDGE Braiden McGregor
- DT Kris Jenkins, Jr.
- LB Michael Barrett
- LB Junior Colson
- CB Mike Sainristil
- CB Josh Wallace
Over 300 players were invited to the Combine, and last year 259 players were drafted. So mathematically, not every player invited will end up being selected. But if everyone gets drafted, that would set a record for the most players drafted from a school in one year. The current record is 15, which was set by Georgia.
Former Michigan players TE Erick All (Iowa), QB Joe Milton (Tennessee), and EDGE Eyabi Okie-Anoma (Charlotte) will also be at the Combine, as will former Michigan signee WR Xavier Worthy (Texas).
Should be the most entertaining draft in years if you wear maize colored glasses like I do.
ReplyDeleteSome admittedly poorly informed guesses just going off what I saw in college:
QB J.J. McCarthy - Round 1
RB Blake Corum - Round 3
WR Cornelius Johnson - Round 7
WR Roman Wilson - Round 3
TE A.J. Barner - Round 5
OL Karsen Barnhart - UDFA
OL La'Darius Henderson - Round 4
OL Trente Jones - Round 7
OL Trevor Keegan - Round 5
OL Drake Nugent - Round 7
OL Zak Zinter - Round 3
EDGE Jaylen Harrell - UDFA
EDGE Braiden McGregor - UDFA
DT Kris Jenkins, Jr. - Round 2
LB Michael Barrett - Round 5
LB Junior Colson - Round 3
CB Mike Sainristil - Round 3
CB Josh Wallace - UDFA
There are slated to be 257 picks in the draft out of 321 players invited to the Combine. (Obviously, some guys can get picked who don't go to the Combine.) That's 80.1% of the invitees who could be drafted if they all come from that pool.
DeleteIf only 14 of 18 Michigan invitees get drafted, that's 77.8%.
That's not a large margin, but I would be VERY surprised if 4 of those guys go undrafted.
Wallace was one of the top-graded corners in the country, according to PFF. If he were a 4-star who came to Michigan initially and has the season he had in 2023, would you still think he would go undrafted?
Also, Braiden McGregor at 6'6", 267 pounds with decent athleticism...I would be pretty shocked if he goes undrafted.
Regarding Wallace -- you could be right. There is a heavy need for DBs and Wallace played well in multiple systems.
DeleteWallace's combine performance will make or break his draft stock IMO. He has the experience and size to be drafted. But does he test well enough in the athleticism?
I think the recruiting sites' projection in high school would have about the same relevancy as Shane Morris' had on his draft status. i.e., none.
You could be right on McGregor as well. I hope you are. I just don't think he has much pass rushing juice and is low ceiling. I would be glad to be wrong.
DeleteRashan Gary was criticized by many for having limited pass rush production while producing 9.5 sacks in 3 years. McGregor had 7 in 4 years. I don't think either is much of a factor - it proved not to be in Gary's case. It's more about the tape and the potential of athleticism.
Ultimately BM was Aiden Hutchinson's heir in a stat-friendly system, surrounded by elite talent but he was not that productive. And he was splitting time with younger guys. He had every opportunity to put up big numbers and didn't do it.
I think a thing working against some of the fringe Michigan prospects like McGregor is that the defense was loaded with elite players so in that context it can be challenging to evaluate individuals sometimes. BM was never going to get targeted for a double team and a guy like Wallace was going to be limited in how many times he faced the opposition's best receiver. If you're a RB trying to pick up a blitz in the backfield you're going to pay more attention to Mason Graham and Kris Jenkins than Braden McGregor.
I'd set the over under for UDFAs at 3.5 out of 18. Sounds like you like the under there.
DeleteI hope they all get drafted but more importantly that they all get camp invites and opportunities. Whether they are drafted or UDFA is not always a big difference for fringe guys (e.g., Christopher Hinton vs Will Campbell or Willie Henry). More important to find a fit.
Incredible development by the Harbaugh staff
ReplyDeleteI agree. And but also note that Harbaugh again demonstrated his adaptability here. Four of the guys are portal transfers. Critical starters on the national champ team who weren't even on our radars at the end of the previous season.
DeleteDon Brown, Tom Allen, and Herm Edwards get some developmental credit for those guys as well.
Where I think Harbaugh deserves EXTRA credit is in position switches for guys like Barrett and Sainristil.
If Wallace runs a sub 4.5 40, he will get drafted. If it is close to a 4.4 he might be a high draft pick. I will take Wallace over Turner (tackling optional) at Michigan. Harrell was a top guy on defense, but he is like 30 yo.
ReplyDeleteI agree that Wallace will probably get drafted if he runs in the 4.4s. I don't expect him to be that fast.
DeleteHowever, Jaylen Harrell is literally 21 years old after spending four years in college. I don't understand that comment at all.
Ha. I could see how Anon would think that. Harrell has played a lot and it does FEEL like he has been around forever.
DeleteThis is why I like looking at guys ages and real life class rather than conflating playing time and talking about their future eligibility options.
Remember when Brandon Peters looked like new born puppy in 2017? He was 20 years old. At 21, Harrell is considered "like 30".
This isn't even that unusual. Arguably both the "red-shirt freshman" and the "senior" should be considered to have similar runway for improvement given the similarity in age. The difference is that Harrell was a future NFL player, an all conference caliber starter at Michigan who carved out a role at younger age and we've watched him play meaningful snaps for years. Because he's a better player. But it FEELS like he's older.
Peters is objectively less talented and had to leverage experience to earn a starting role post-transfer to Illinois.
Better players will generally get better playing time sooner. It doesn't mean they older or less likely to improve. The coaches see all of them practice every week. We only see Saturdays. So I think it's understandable for people to mix this kind of thing up the same way some fans forget who is responsible for losing to Appalachian State.
"So I think it's understandable for people to mix this kind of thing up the same way some fans forget who is responsible for losing to Appalachian State."
DeleteClearly it was Warde Manuel.
Nobody can doubt that.
DeleteWilson at 3 is a surprise. I would have guessed UDFA based on his height unless he runs a sub 4.3.
ReplyDeleteWilson is considered to be a top-50 or top-60 player by a couple different talent evaluators, like Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler. I've seen SOME projections that he could go late in the 1st round, but I don't buy that. Regardless, I think he's pretty much universally thought to be a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
DeleteHeight is overrated. Looking at the most valuable WRs in the NFL, half of them a 6'0 or less. Half are 6'1 or 6'2. None are are over 6'2.
Deletehttps://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-10-most-valuable-wide-receivers-2023-season
Wilson is listed at 6' so his height is firmly in the prototypical range 6' to 6'2.