Name: Brandyn Hillman
Height: 6’0″
Weight: 200 lbs.
High school: Portsmouth (VA) Churchland
Position: Safety
Class: Junior
Jersey number: #6
Last year: I ranked Hillman #49 and said he would be a backup nickel (LINK). He played in twelve games and made 21 tackles, 1.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack, and 2 pass breakups.
TTB Rating: 83
Hillman seemed to slide into some serious time last season after playing a minor role in 2023, albeit burning his redshirt during the national championship season. He played over 300 snaps in 2024 and turned into a ferocious hitter, perhaps Michigan's most exciting hitter at safety since Ernest Shazor. A former high school quarterback - a trait I love in defensive players - he should move into an even more prominent role in 2025 now that Makari Paige and Quinten Johnson have moved on.
Michigan has a deep safety group, and Hillman should be in a battle with the likes of Jaden Mangham, T.J. Metcalf, and Rod Moore to start. Moore's health is a question mark (thus his placement at #20 in the countdown), and Metcalf seems a likely pick for the nickel spot. That could leave the trio of Hillman, Mangham, and Moore playing safety - keeping a third starter-level player available to be insurance for Moore - and Metcalf as a chess piece who can be moved around a little bit.
Prediction: Starting safety
Mister Bring The Wood!
ReplyDeleteWe have depth at Safety, so while I'm a big fan of Hillman, I'd still have RB1a & RB1b ahead. Our season hinges on them carrying the offense
Yep I like Hillman too and am all the way bought in on Thunder's ex-QB thing defensively. Obviously not the type of QB that is afraid of contact LOL. Hillman is going to be stepping into a starting role and may lead the defense in snaps if he stays healthy all year.
ReplyDeleteI am not as confident about the depth at Safety as Thunder is though. We have very few options beyond the starters. Compared to say RB3 it's a bigger concern to me, because it wasn't just Johnson and Paige (600-700 snaps each) gone but Walker (340 snaps) and Berry (630 snaps) moving over to CB full time. That's 4 of your top 13 players in snap counts gone from the safety rotation.* Michigan needs guys like Hillman (~250) and Curtis (~100) to step up into MUCH bigger roles.
You need 3 starters here (including nickel) and as Thunder says you've got 3 solid proven ones here in Hillman, Metcalf, and (eventually) Moore. But you also need to rotate 4 of them. Mangham and Curtis are your other options but assuming Mangham starts until Moore comes back, it's bare bones with those 4 for a while at least.
If any of the top 4 are injured early in the season you are drawing in someone with zero experience to play meaningful snaps on the road against Oklahoma and Nebraska. Not great! So that's where you start looking at Teven (the younger) Metcalf and Oden being thrust into big roles.
For context: the safety rotation against OSU was Johnson (59 snaps), Paige (57), Walker (52) and Hillman (13). Against Alabama with Paige out it was Johnson (55), Walker (52), Hillman (37), Curtis (17). That's essentially the minimum number of guys that you need every game but note that it's 5 guys named since attrition will definitely happen.
I'm not saying you panic here, I'm just saying the options are kind of limited behind the starters. Last year you had Hillman as your 5th safety option (after Paige, Johnson, Walker, Berry) and he ended up playing 244 snaps (more than Jordan Marshall, Hansen, and Sprage played combined). This year you've got Curtis as your 4th safety option, essentially rotating in to cover 3 spots before you look at some newbs or consider moving Berry back. Getting Moore back is going to be critical since it's unlikely everyone from the presumed "starting" rotation (Hillman, Metcalf, Mangham, Curtis, Berry, Hill, and whoever wins CB3) is healthy all year.
If Curtis is your 5th safety you feel pretty good about things but while he is the 4th option it's a bit tenuous. Hopefully we keep hearing buzz about the younger options.
*Can't count all of Berry's snaps in the safety rotation because he moved over to CB midseason, but assuming about half were nickel is the right ballpark. .
We're fine at Safety
DeleteIf we're playing four (or FIVE) it's because they're close in ability, not missed if pulled, or playing everywhere (Zeke) ... two of those three indicate that Safeties Don't Matter, especially if we rotate through 4-5 without dropoff
Am I doing that right?
#lAnKoToMy (iYkYk)
Yep, surprisingly, actually, you're not THAT far off. Or at least sniffing in the right direction. Challenge accepted.
DeleteThe rotation at safety/nickel can be pared down to 4 guys in crunch time, that's a minimum, with most of it going to the starters if needed, but is typically going to be 5 guys (preferred) and really over the course of the season it will be 6 because it's likely somebody misses time. Analogous to the RB spot where you need to rotate 2 minimum, and you can give most of that to a "primary" back when needed, but prefer to use 3 if you can and almost certainly will at some point need the 3rd guy to step in for at least some meaningful duty.
Therefore Safety #6 is a lot like RB #3. Not part of the core rotation but likely to be needed to chip in at some point when things get stretched and if there are multiple injuries (not typical but it happens).
Now go ahead and guess which one generates lots of discussion and sometimes consternation and which one is almost completely ignored by essentially everyone as irrelevant deep bench depth that can be handled by frosh or walk-ons?
They matter the same* but one (RB3) is a relatively big deal and part of discourse (at least for sickos) and the other (S6) is just kinda not even discussed (see "we have good depth at safety" comment above).
Delete*Now, that's looking at it purely from a snap count relevance perspective that ignores positional value and positional risk. To get to the heart of the "matter" you gotta consider both alongside the depth chart picture.
Positional value I'm not going to rehash but it's a real thing that has been studied and pointed to repeatedly -- it's proven to be a low value position at the NFL level by NFL GMs. These are just facts and they've been discussed heavily. Assertions about college being different are popular and widely taken and consensus, not backed by ANY evidence. It's just feelings and more specifically the unprovable relevance of offensive effectiveness with different RBs present or not. (on/off or plus/minus stats are easy to come by in basketball but not so much football). CFB does run more than the NFL but the NFL runs plenty. I believe it's within 10%? maybe 15? Yet the NFL chooses not to prioritize or differentiate heavily between RBs.
Positional RISK is a more interesting topic and more relevant to the "matter" at hand. What happens when things REAL BAD? When it's a dire worst case scenario.
DeleteWe saw at Michigan what happens when you lose your top RB in 2022 (the offense thrived and Edwards was celebrated as a star and predicted to run for a 1000 yards AS A BACKUP the next season lol). Not only that but we also saw what happens when disaster strikes and the top 2 RBs both go down and Michigan is faced with playing an elite defense with walk-on types at RB -- (Michigan's come from behind victory, and 4 second half scoring drives, against a top 10 Illinois defense, with a walk-on and Charlotte-bound transfer leading the way).
Meanwhile we lost safety #4 (Moten) for the TCU bowl game and had to elevate safety #5 (Johnson) - he busted almost immediately and gave up a massive touchdown in a game where the defense got absolutely shredded. The not-even-worst-case scenario was quite bad!
Sidenote: for all the handwringing about the goalline fumble against TCU, on an awkward exchange with a gimmick play with the backup RB playing FB, Mullings proved himself as more than capable (multiple TDs in a short yardage role in 2022, a notable role as RB3 on the champ squad in 2023, and a part time starter and highlight maker in 2024). He is currently fighting for an NFL roster spot as a RB. Quinton Johnson, AFAIK, is done with football despite proving himself as a solid backup in '23 and a solid starter in '24.
I'm just looking at one season here but Michigan replaced it's best RB in a few decades with a walk-on and the offense technically did better with the walk-on. This can be dismissed as a sample size thing, and should be, but in that worst case scenario against Illinois it was not a problem. It didn't seem to matter very much unless you want to equate running backs to run game results exclusively. (BTW the reason Mullings might not make the NFL is reportedly his pass protection issues, which make sense since he did so little of it in college LOL).
Meanwhile using a fairly unexceptional DB, but an eventually capable one, who wasn't quite yet ready and Michigan gave up an explosive TD almost immediately. Not exactly a worst case scenario in the secondary but you can point directly to Q Johnson busting against TCU's Q Johnston and a bad outcome for the team. One to one - as clear as day and Johnson was pulled by the coaches after that and Michigan's defense struggled all game.
#essay
#notsorry
#jackhandy
Challenge accepted, answered, and addressed. Still waiting on the situation where Michigan so obviously struggled without their top RB. There will never be a better example than the Illinois game with one half with Corum and one half without to tell the story. Michigan's offense did better. We've lived through the worst case scenario (Illinois) we've heard the doom and gloom (can't beat OSU) and it got tossed out.
Let me know the situation where we lost a Dax Hill and plugged in a Caden Kolesar and it was not problem. Eager to see it. Challenge accepted? LOL. Guessing not. Great weekend for dodgeball coming up!
Man, six deep with no drop-off ... compared to RB, where - in most years (incl 2o24) - there's a difference maker and then some guys
Delete#3posts
#boring
#notevenlAnKoToMybelieveslAnKoToMy (iykyk)
"white flag accepted"
DeleteAm I doing this right?
No, lAnKoToMy (iykyk)
DeleteYour three essays did nothing to dispute that we can (and do) go deeper in the Safety room than RB, with less drop-off
#takenotes
#learningisoccurring
#lAnKoToMy (iykyk)
Yep it does actually. You didn't get it. I'll explain it more succinctly given the grievance voiced over having to read too many words. I'll use simpler sentence structure too.
DeleteRB3 and S6 are laid out as similarly relevant.
RB3 and S6 on this roster have similar levels of uncertainty and inexperience.
2 RBs who are rock solid make up the core ration at RB.
We don't have 5 safeties who are rock solid.
This is because Moore is still hurt/recovering.
Moreover there is MORE dropoff even among the top 4.
Mangham, frankly, is a pretty unproven player having started only a bad MSU defense. The top backup at RB is a 1a/1b situation while the top backup at safety (be it Curtis or Mangham) is a bit of uncertainty.
The safety room (covering 3 positions) is a less deep than the RB room (covering 1 position). 4 people you trust covering 3 positions vs 2 people you trust covering 1 position.
#hashtag
#emoji
-IYKYK
#hashtag.
You're reeeeaching. Again
DeleteWe think we have two "r0cK s0liD" RBs THIS year, but did NOT last year, or even the prior:
Mullings was HIM, putting on a cape and carrying the offense through at least three Wins
Corum before that during our NC run
*in both years, Edwards struggled. He was Boom enough to land on a video game cover, but Bust so often that he didn't get drafted. Who carried the ball mattered
We had enough Safties to rotate a bunch in, and it didn't matter
#period
#lAnKoToMy (iYkYk)
No we don't think that.
DeleteLast year we had 2 rock solid vets plus Hall (now at UNC) plus Marshall. So we had a bounty of good options. As per uzhe. People tried to make this out like it would be a problem (Michigan was a big time dog vs Bama) but lo, it was not.
Losing 2 NFL caliber RBs proved to have ZERO tangible impact on offensive results.
Mullings/Edwards vs OSU - 36 carries 127 yards. 13 points for the offense
Marshall/Hall vs Alabama - 39 carries 128 yards. 19 points for the offense
Same thing happened in 22 with Corum out. The offense did even better.
Loose relationship with historical facts on Edwards/Mullings above so let's note some facts here to address the obsessed rerun:
During the 23 national champ season Edwards was clearly ahead of Mullings (87 snaps all year). In 24 Mullings took on shared duties alongside Edwards and even got slightly more snaps (332 for Mullings compared to 315 for Edwards before Edwards got hurt against OSU) buuuut Edwards still started 10 of 12 games he played. Mullings started 4. That's the definition of 1a/1b even if Mullings outproduced Edwards by most rushing measures. Mullings was a better tackle breaker and more physical rusher but Edwards was better in other areas. Mullings also at one point (Indiana) was demoted to 3rd string behind Hall. aka Benched like Joe Milton LOL.
Nonetheless, BOTH RBs were honorable mention all conference and both RBs are currently competing to make NFL rosters. The dichotomous narrative of one as hero and the other as bust doesn't hold up -- they were both pretty good but neither was Blake. But that won't stop the narrative from being perpetuated.
Anyway again run game still had a quality performance against an elite opponent Bama despite incompetent QB play and a subpar OL and losing it's top 2 NFLish RBs. It didn't seem to matter that the freshman RB was inserted in. Marshall stepping in for Edwards/Mullings is reminiscent of Edwards stepping in for Corum in '22. Barely a hiccup.
Likely that if/when someone from the RB3 pool has to step up in 2025 there will again be a very good option and little to no drop off in offensive production, as has historically been the case. Not always so at other positions, including safety. Looking for Parker to be next man up to be talked up as incredibly valuable and important by folks like Zach Shaw. It's like clockwork.
DeleteTCU22 stands out as instructive -- Losing Corum (GOAT) didn't matter again. (Edwards and the offense continued to thrive no matter what labels people want to put on it the results speak for themselves) but it seems that losing Moten did align with a massive defensive collapse.* A team that had given up more than 17 points only 3 times all year (with a season high of 27) lost 51-45 giving up ~500 yards and 5 TDs to a good but not great offense.
*I would not put this ALL on Moten but changing the undermanned DB rotation and needing to rotate in Q Johnson proved to be disastrous to the defense's performance. The other big piece was Morris playing hurt and "not himself" IMO. Coaches could have managed better but this defense falling this flat was unprecedented for a team that held OSU to just 23 and PSU (who scored 30+ in every other game but 1 that year) to just 17.
So what changed? Well Moten wasn't there anymore.
#j#E#9#tHrEe you've been challenged before to provide any kind of comparable situation at RB. You have failed to do it time and time again. Instead leaning on the times where a change was NOT observed at other positions (e.g, Jones stepping in for Zinter). In other words a dodge.
So I'll stand by it and repeat the challenge. Knowing full well you'll dodge again and fail to produce an example. Instead you'll duck dodge and deflect.
The best example is Ill22 where the rush game stats declined going from Blake to a walk-on but the offense did BETTER going from Blake to a walk-on, and Michigan's offense still had multiple scoring drives to come from behind and beat an elite defense.
But the truth is there are NO such examples. So even if one had the capabilities I don't think it's possible to succeed here. Prove me wrong! Where is the example of a RB going missing and the offense collapsing in a similar manner as the defense collapsed against TCU in '22 season without Moten.
#HIU
#Safety5Matters
Lmao, you combined Edwards (who did nothing) with Mullings (who did all the work). Then you did the same with Marshall (who did all the work) with Hall (who did nothing) ... might as well throw in ... (checks notes) ... Cole Cabana too
Delete#classicLaNk0t0mY (iYkYk)
#outsmarted
#jeDub
*two posts, two usernames and a another lAnKoToMy lie:
examples are in the Justice Haynes thread, several times. We've done this before, and YOU always dodge, lAnKotoMy
Just wander on over to #page2 of TTB: same game, same opponent, behind the same OL. Only the ball carrier changes, with the results & differences immediate & undeniable
#namechanges
#whiteflagaccepted
#lAnKoToMy (iYkYk)
The facts are facts. Sorry for your loss.
Delete"examples are in the Justice Haynes thread"
Nope. I even checked! All you had/have was Illinois where the offense did better without Corum than with. Passing matters. So does scoring. Sorry for your loss.
Otherwise I know how bad you want me to read all your page2 responses but you'll just have to live with them just being you talking to yourself. Sorry for your loss.
Receipts: 16 Aug, 2025 at 9:56 AM
Deletehttp://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2025/08/2025-season-countdown-21-justice-haynes.html
#yourdenialisyourdodge
#exposed
#lAnKt0bY (iykyk)
let me know if I have to go back to the time I listed every Harbaugh RB who was NOT Harball, and the relatively few who were. I can do the same with SMASH, if you'd like that L too
#receipts
#gogetyourshinebox
#lAnKt0bY