Preview: Michigan vs. Ohio State

 

Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (image via Columbus Dispatch)

RUSH OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan had a solid rushing effort last week against Maryland despite being down the top two running backs and ranks #10 nationally (223.5 yards/game) and #10 in yards per carry (5.59). Running back Jordan Marshall (143 carries, 871 yards, 10 touchdowns) should be back from the injury he suffered two games ago, while Bryson Kuzdzal (20 carries, 100 yards, 3 TD last week) had a bit of a breakout game and showed some nice speed, patience, and vision in his first career start. One key aspect may be the health of fullback/tight end Max Bredeson, who was in a boot by the end of last week's game. The offensive line has improved somewhat in the running game, despite three redshirt freshmen starting. Meanwhile, Ohio State is #2 in rush defense (80 yards allowed/game) and #4 in yards allowed per carry (2.67). They have not allowed 100+ yards on the ground since week one against Texas. Senior LB Sonny Styles (6'4", 243) leads the team with 62 tackles, followed by junior LB Arvell Reese (6'5", 243) with 59. Junior DT Kayden McDonald (6'3", 326) is a force in the middle of the defense with 47 tackles and 8 tackles for loss, and he's been more productive than Detroit Lions 1st round pick Tyleik Williams was last season. Senior DE Kaden Curry (6'3", 260) leads the team with 13 tackles for loss, and junior safety Caleb Downs (6'0", 205) plays down in the box and has made 5 tackles for loss himself. This is going to be strength against strength.
Advantage: Ohio State

Hit the jump for more.

PASS OFFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #101 in passing offense (196.9 yards/game) and #46 in yards per attempt (7.8). And they're #72 in passing efficiency. These are decent numbers, especially considering Michigan is #118 in passing attempts (279). Quarterback Bryce Underwood had one of his best passing games of the year against Maryland (16/23, 215 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT). Michigan has found its #1 receiver in freshman Andrew Marsh (42 catches, 641 yards, 3 TD), who had 12 catches for 189 yards against Northwestern two weeks ago. Wide receiver Donaven McCulley (32 catches, 488 yards, 3 TD) has also been effective and dangerous at times, but Underwood's chemistry with Marsh is better. The offensive line is iffy in pass protection, and I doubt Michigan will see a sudden improvement there. The Wolverines' best chance for giving Underwood time to throw is probably to establish the run game in order to use play action effectively. The matchup with Curry (9.0 sacks) on whichever tackle, most likely RT Andrew Sprague, is a concerning one. The Buckeyes are #23 in sacks per game (2.64). On the back end, Ohio State is #1 in pass defense (126.6 yards allowed/game), #1 in yards allowed per attempt (5.1), and #6 in passing efficiency defense. They have not forced turnovers a ton in the passing game, with just 6 interceptions total; they are led by Downs and junior CB Jermaine Mathews, Jr. (5'11", 190) with 2 each.
Advantage: Ohio State

RUSH DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE RUSH OFFENSE
The Wolverines are #11 in rushing yards allowed per game (94.0) and #10 in yards allowed per carry (2.98). There was an anomalous game mid-season against USC where Michigan totally stunk against the run, but they have been pretty respectable otherwise. In the past two weeks, it has taken opponents 51 carries to gain 132 yards. Linebacker Ernest Hausmann missed last week's game without any real explanation from him or the program, but he still leads the way with 68 tackles. He's followed by fellow LB Jimmy Rolder (57) and then two defensive backs in T.J. Metcalf and Brandyn Hillman with 41 each. The Wolverines are tied at #35 with 6.18 tackles for loss per game, including converted LB Jaishawn Barham's 6 run stuffs behind the line; Barham is mostly playing DE these days. The defensive tackles have mostly been unspectacular, but there sure are a lot of them - Damon Payne, Rayshaun Benny, Tre Williams, Trey Pierce, and Enow Etta all play a good amount of snaps. Ohio State has four running backs with 50+ carries this season, and while they put up good stats, no one truly seems special at this point, unlike last year's duo of Treveyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Freshman RB Bo Jackson (6'0", 217) is the lead back with 129 carries for 835 yards and 5 touchdowns, but senior West Virginia transfer C.J. Donaldson (6'2", 232) is the goal line back and has 10 scores. Freshman Isaiah West (5'10", 210) has picked up more carries lately, but mostly in blowouts. Quarterback Julian Sayin (6'1", 208) is a non-factor in the run game (27 carries, 20 yards, 0 TD). Overall, the Buckeyes are #56 in rushing (170.2 yards/game) and #33 in yards per carry (4.95).
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. OHIO STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #52 in passing defense (208.5 yards allowed/game), #31 in yards allowed per attempt (6.3), and #34 in defensive passing efficiency. The Wolverines made 11 interceptions in the first seven games, but they have just 1 interception in the last four contests. Surprisingly, the only player with multiple interceptions is backup LB Cole Sullivan (3 picks for 8 yards), and nine other players have 1 each. On the defensive line, Derrick Moore is #2 in the conference in sacks (9.5), behind Minnesota's Anthony Smith (10.5). However, Michigan is getting very little pass rush from the interior of the line, which is frustrating after we've seen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant over the past few seasons. For all the talk about Ohio State's receivers, who are formidable, their squad's volume passing numbers aren't out of this world. Sayin's numbers (79.4% completions, 27 TD, 4 INT) are good, but the team is #28 in passing (270.1 yards/game) and #5 in yards per attempt (9.4, tied with Indiana). Star WR Jeremiah Smith (6'3", 223) has 69 catches for 902 yards and 10 touchdowns, but he sat out last week's game. Meanwhile, the breakout star this year has been junior Carnell Tate (6'3", 195) with 39 catches for 711 yards and 7 touchdowns, but he has missed three games due to injury. Michigan tried to land Purdue transfer TE Max Klare (6'5", 243), but Klare picked Ohio State and is the #3 leading receiver with 38 catches for 400 yards and 2 scores. The offensive line is giving up just 0.55 sacks per game, which is #3 in the country, behind Cincinnati (with dual-threat QB Brendan Sorsby) and Army, a team with just 97 passing attempts. In other words, even though Sayin doesn't run much, it's very difficult to get to him.
Advantage: Ohio State

ROSTER NOTES

• Ohio State players recruited by Michigan include: OL Deontae Armstrong, OL Devontae Armstrong, DL Beau Atkinson, WR Mylan Graham, DE Eddrick Houston, CB Davison Igbinosun, RB Bo Jackson, DT Tywone Malone, S Jaylen McClain, DT Kayden McDonald, OL Luke Montgomery, RB James Peoples, LB Arvell Reese, TE Nate Roberts, DT Maxwell Roy, QB Julian Sayin, CB Aaron Scott, CB Lorenzo Styles, LB Sonny Styles, LB Joey Velazquez, WR Carnell Tate, CB Bryce West
• Ohio State LB Joey Velazquez played his first five years at Michigan before transferring to OSU for 2024
• Former Detroit Lions head coach Matt Patricia is Ohio State's defensive coordinator

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...

• On November 30, 2024, Michigan beat Ohio State 13-10
• RB Kalel Mullings ran 32 times for 116 yards and 1 TD
• QB Davis Warren completed 9/16 passes for 62 yards and 2 INT
• Michigan held Henderson and Judkins to a combined 22 carries for 67 yards

PREDICTION

• Ohio State 35, Michigan 17