That was domination. More so than any other game this season, that felt like Michigan truly dominated the team across from them. Despite winning by 24+ points against every other team on the schedule, it seemed like Michigan had gone through some rough stretches, including being down early against Rutgers and struggling for a while with Bowling Green. But right from the start, it seemed like Michigan just had way too much for Nebraska to handle. The #2 rushing defense in the country gave up 249 yards rushing to the Wolverines at 4.9 yards per carry. Punter Tommy Doman was only needed once - other than holding on kicks - and boomed his 1 punt for 65 yards. The only thing preventing Michigan from having a 45-0 shutout was a late 74-yard run by Joshua Fleeks, who sliced through a bunch of backups. Credit to him and Nebraska for not giving up, but it was indeed a garbage time score.
Hit the jump for more.
Hello, Josaiah Stewart. Early in the season, it seemed as if Josaiah Stewart might end up being another Cam Goode, a player who looked a little spicy on paper but ended up bland on the field. Stewart kept getting manhandled in the run game, and when it came to the pass rush, he was offering very little. Nebraska's offensive line is nothing special, but he finally showed up with a good game, notching 5 tackles and 2 sacks. The pass rush was a bonus, but if he can learn to play the run like he did on Saturday, then he might end up being a solid contributor. His size is what it is, so he has to play with good technique and discipline.
The running game seems to be gearing up. Blake Corum (16 carries, 74 yards, 2 touchdowns) had a solid, consistent, relatively ho-hum game. Former linebacker Kalel Mullings seems to have hit his stride the past couple games running the ball, showing some nifty feet and good vision. He ended up with 5 carries for 43 yards and 1 touchdown, a 20-yarder. All five of his carries came on 3rd or 4th down, and he earned one touchdown and four first downs. At 6'2" and 239 lbs., he's a bulldozer with some extra speed. I really like what I've seen from him this year, and I think Mike Hart deserves some credit for getting him prepared. When Mullings converted to running back late in the 2022 season, he was running tentatively and upright with very little vision. An entire off-season devoted to honing his footwork, vision, body lean, etc. seems to have helped him realize some of the running back potential he had coming out of high school, when he was recruited by the likes of Wisconsin to be a running back. Meanwhile, Donovan Edwards (14 carries, 48 yards) continued his uninspiring start to the season and had the lowest yards per carry (3.4) on the team, except for backup quarterback Jack Tuttle, who ran 1 time for 0 yards. I think Michigan needs Edwards down the stretch so he can be a big-play threat, a trick play threat, and a receiver, but perhaps he might start ceding some carries to Mullings.
Michigan lacks speed on the back end. There aren't many gripes to be had in a 5-0 season where Michigan is blowing everyone out, but one thing I wonder about hurting Michigan down the line is a lack of great makeup speed at defensive back. Michigan's safeties and corners all have good-not-great speed, with the possible exception of Mike Sainristil. But Sainristil plays in the slot and isn't often challenged deep. Josh Wallace, Keon Sabb, and Quinten Johnson all have so-so speed, and Rod Moore seems a half-step slower this year, perhaps because of the injury. There's no D.J. Turner with 4.26 speed to chase people down on the back end, and I wonder if that will hurt Michigan at some point. Nebraska wide receiver Marcus Washington had a 56-yard catch, but he's nothing special in the speed department and Michigan had a tough time tracking him down.
Big man pick! It's always nice to see a defensive lineman come away with an interception, so it was a beautiful thing to watch 6'4", 339 lb. Kenneth Grant's meaty hand reach out and grab a deflected ball for an interception. Of course, this came a week after Grant was in the spotlight against Rutgers, when he tracked down QB Gavin Wimsatt on Sainristil's interception return to throw a clean-but-not-quite-necessary block. Defensive end Braiden McGregor batted the ball into the air, and Grant did a nice job of tracking the carom to reel it in for the turnover.
Nebraska doesn't have much. Nebraska has some average players, but there's nobody who really scares you. I actually like quarterback Heinrich Haarberg's running ability and he would be interesting as a runner, but his feel for being a passer is very rudimentary. His footwork needs work, and he's not good at moving in the pocket to avoid pressure or find throwing lanes. He would be fun as a change-up QB to come in and run some option stuff, but he's just not ready to be a full-time player yet. Nose tackle Nash Hutmacher is an interesting player and linebacker Nick Henrich is solid, but I'm not sure there's a single player in Lincoln who would be starting at Michigan.
Agree wholeheartedly about the domination but that was transparently NOT the 2nd best run defense in country. Still, it was a complete victory in all phases. That's good to see, especially on the road.
ReplyDeleteI'd temper expectations on Stewart. I hope he's rounding into form and adapting to a higher level of performance -- but those Nebraska tackles are awful. More info needed.
Edwards will be substantially more productive than Mullings and this narrative will be forgotten by the end of the year. Call my prediction a hot take or feelings if you like. I call it a logical deduction based on available data.
Harbaugh wanted to sing "For He's a Jolly Good Fellow" for Kenneth Grant. Where you at student section? Time for a new tradition.
" I'm not sure there's a single player in Lincoln who would be starting at Michigan." Who would have thought this a couple years ago? What a team!
Completely agree re. Edwards. I think he's starting to round into form, and after a couple of 60+ yard runs these concerns will look a little silly. More importantly, I like what I've seen from him in the passing game so far - I think it's clear that he'll be a major threat there once we get into more high pressure situations.
DeleteEdwards will be fine. He's an elite athlete. But he's never going to be a paver, like we've seen out of HH, BC & even mullings. Feed him, but be creative about it
ReplyDeleteDude should be a recruiting tool
What's a paver?
DeleteAssume he just means that he's not a guy who's going to turn a 2 yard gain into a 4 yard gain (like Corum). I'd argue that Corum's ability to do so is more due to his vision and short area quickness, but point still stands.
DeleteGot it. I think Edwards does that pretty well. Force is mass x acceleration and he's got the later in spades. Plus we know he's not afraid of contact, to a fault perhaps. I also think we've seen it from him already multiple times, perhaps most notably against Purdue. Give him those carries and he'll get the results.
DeleteBut I see the point - he's definitely not Khalid Hill or Ben Mason. I don't think Corum is either, nor for that matter was Haskins (who was the primary back when M had a lot of short yardage and red-zone struggle in the middle of 2021). We don't want these guys just going in a straight line very often because it's a waste of their athleticism.
You don't need a moose if you've got a squirrel, a mountain lion, and a bulldog.
I just see Edwards as a higher runner - more of a long strider relative to someone like Corum. Would love to see his carry distribution (i.e., % of carries that go for 1-2 yards, 2-5, 5-10, etc.). My hypothesis would be that his distribution is a bit more bi-modal relative to Corum, but who knows. Maybe it's just an eye test thing. I don't think that Corum scores on that 75 yard TD against OSU - my guess is he's tackled by Ransom or tracked down from behind - so they both have their strengths.
DeleteYep - Corum's got short powerful legs - my ideal for RB body type. Easier to keep those feet resetting and churning when you're 5'8 rather than 6'1, generally. That's why I tend to be skeptical of taller backs (who have been marginalized to a large degree). Being compact is better than being big.
DeleteBut Charbonnet and Haskins were both very good so it's certainly not absolute.
That distribution data is what I want to see Anon. It's not available anywhere that I am aware of. But even that would not tell the full story. Since a 2 yard run on 4th and 1 is great but a 2 yard run on 4th and 3 is awful. That's where you need to turn 2 yards into 4. Success rate accounts for that, and we DO have access to that at least.
Success rate summary below for anyone interested. It's the equivalent of batting average in baseball - tells you nothing about hitting homeruns or striking out completely. It is a measure of consistency that takes into consideration context.
DeleteCorum '22 54%
Edwards '22 45%
Haskins '21 47%
Corum '21 42%
Edwards '21 43%
Bottomline: Haskins in 21 and Edwards in 22 were about the same. No indication that one gets the job done more regularly than the other. Corum produced better in '22 but essentially the same as Haskins/Edwards in '21.
I suspect things will stabilize in '23 as we get more carries but obviously right now the results for Edwards are UGLY(28%) as everyone has observed and is obvious from the YPC numbers as well. Meanwhile, Corum's success rate is excellent (61%) but will likely regress against better defenses. He hasn't broken a lot of long runs this year either, so his somewhat modest YPC is not standing out the way his success rate does. But I wouldn't read too much into Corum's "struggles" breaking 20+ yard runs either - we know he can hit home runs too.
For context, Higdon had a 40% success rate when he rushed for 1000 yards in 2018. Haskins and Charbonnet were at 43% and 45% in 2019. Anything above 40% is solid, above 45% is very good, and above 50% is outstanding.
So all of the numbers above from 2021 and 2022 are very strong for all the backs - which speaks mostly to the OL being what it is.
@ Lank 2:30 p.m.
DeleteI'm so confused right now. Lank, did you collect this data just to prove to us all that we're not crazy for believing that Edwards has kinda stunk this year? Because it seems like he has stunk, and then the numbers have stunk, and now your advanced stats show that he has stunk, and your word for it is "ugly" but up until now you've insisted that things are hunky dory.
It's actually kind of funny
DeleteI've never once argued that he's producing good results. So, no.
DeleteIt's data that points against him being a boom bust back.
Delete@ Lank 9:47 a.m.
DeleteI actually think it proves he's a boom-bust back. His success rate was 45% in 2022, which was 9 percentage points lower than the starter (Corum). Yet Edwards averaged 7.08 yards per carry, which was 1.16 yards/carry more than Corum. So he got what he was supposed to get less than the starter...but he had more explosive plays than the starter, which bumped up his YPC.
I don't really care much about the 2021 stuff, because Edwards was just a freshman and he only had 35 carries the entire season, which is like 3 carries per game. Good or bad, the numbers just don't mean much to me. He had some nice runs against MAC teams and a great receiving game against Maryland, and then outside of the Iowa TD pass to Roman Wilson, he just wasn't much of a factor.
This year Edwards's success rate is down, but as you've said, there's been no boom. So he's a boom-bust back in 2023 with no boom, meaning...he's just been a bust so far.
@Thunder
DeleteI think we have a great deal of agreement here.
2021 agree - I would also dismiss Edwards freshman numbers based on 35 carries. Not enough to say much.
2022 agree - Edwards had plenty of boom in 2022.
2023 agree - You can't be a boom/bust back if there is no boom.
Where I disagree is in the interpretation of Edwards 2022 season. 45% is not indicative of a back who busts very often. It's less than Corum, yes, but right in line with Haskins success rate of 47% in 2021.
I haven't run the career numbers but it seems like all 3 backs are in the mid 40% range of success. Not identical, but the difference between low 40s, mid 40s, and high 40s is not all that great of a difference in my mind. All these backs are going bust quite often. So, not much evidence here that one back is more bust than others.
I'll "argue with myself" here and raise a counterpoint for consideration. (Don't stress it JE!)
DeleteA hitter who hits .250 is usually not very good and one who hits .280 is usually pretty good, and a 3 point shooter who shoots 34% is not very good but one who hits 37% is solid. Small differences in percentages can be meaningful.
But only in the long run! A great shooter can miss shots one game and hit them the next. Doesn't mean he's boom bust (i.e, inconsistent and unreliable) or gained something or lost something (i.e., development), it's just inherent variance from game to game. It can take a long time to get to regress to the mean. This is true across different spots (and in the real world).
A roulette wheel might land on black 10 times in a row. It happens. It doesn't mean the game is flawed or we have to craft a narrative about how the wheel is struggling right now with it's ability to land on red. It might feel like it though.
...and one who hits .200 for a while despite being a career .290 hitter can be considered to be in a slump.
DeleteThat depends on the sample size. You don't consider a guy batting .290 in his career who goes 3-15 in a series to be in a slump. That's just normal variance. Nobody would consider this worth remarking on. And you certainly wouldn't consider that guy to be struggling as a pinch hitter if he's 1-5 in his last 5 games.
DeleteAsk a baseball manager how long it takes to diagnose a slump. At a minimum it would take a full season's worth of college football games (a dozen or so games) to do it, and that's assuming you're getting a full workload (4-5 ABs a game) and not just a pinch hitter.
Nah. We're five games into the season, almost halfway. If it were baseball, this would be about 70 games in. If you're still not playing well through the first 70 games...that's absolutely a slump.
DeleteEdwards has not played 70 games. Football seasons are short, baseball seasons are long, the variance is still the variance.
DeleteI'll give you an recent example of the flaw in your logic: Blake Corum averaged 3.0 ypc in an entire season. I still told you "He had the most impressive freshman season we've seen from a RB in a while". This was just based on 26 carries and the context - carving out carries ahead of Evans and Charbonnet by the end of the year.
http://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2021/08/2021-season-countdown-17-blake-corum.html
Corum was good. He was playing well. The stats didn't show it, but it was there to be seen. You disagreed because of the results were the thing to look at - on paper they were not good. 2021 showed which interpretation was right.
You chalked it up to big improvement in offseason development by Corum and now you are chalking up Edwards "struggles" as an offseason development in Edwards. The change in results are attributed to the change in the guy. I call it bologna.
The case for Edwards being good now is far stronger than it was for Corum in '21. Edwards averaged over 7ypc in 140 carries last year. But that number had not yet stabilized either. I would bet my life that if he got Corum's workload (247 carries) he would not have been able to maintain that 7ypc last year. It was variance in Edwards favor. Remember that some people interpreted this as Edwards deserving to get carries on par with Corum, or possibly more than Corum.
But it wasn't real. What is real is regression to the mean. Now variance is working against Edwards. That's a sufficient explanation for everything that has happened this year. It's a real thing. It's science. It's math.
Variance was telling people a fake story in 2022 (that Edwards is better than Corum) and now variance is telling people a different fake story in 2023 (that Mulliings is better than Edwards). These narratives are schizophrenic. I think most of us know that which is why Thunder I think you would agree that Edwards is going to keep rushing for 3.3 ypc. Even you don't think the results this year are telling us anything meaningful about Edwards capabilities for the rest of the year. Go ahead and tell me if you disagree and you think Edwards is going to run for fewer than 4 ypc. You're calling this a slump, so you don't think it's indicative of his play -- but at the same time your are saying he got worse in the offseason.
It's all based on your priors. If you assume that RB play is a small factor in run game success, and you know that run game success is highly variable from play to play let alone game to game you see it differently than if you equate RB performance with run game success and you think RBs can go from bad to good play to play and game to game and year to year then you see it differently.
My personal view, but Edwards has played poorly to this point. He's made a number of poor decisions, which has contributed to his less than stellar YPC. That's a real thing. Some of the regression from 7YPC to 3.3 can be attributed to that play, some can be contributed to blocking and play calling, some can be contributed to small sample size. We can argue about the distribution there. I am confident that he'll turn it around for a number of different reasons, one of which is that I expect his decision making to improve over time.
DeleteI don't know why we pretend like RBs can't have bad games / bad stretches. I'm not going to pretend like the regression in YPC is 100% due to that, but it's a real thing. I don't think Corum is running for 3.3 YPC if he's provided with the exact same carries to this point.
Everyone agrees that RBs can have bad games and bad stretches. The question is if this attributable to poor play by the RB or situational variance. Anon you are absolutely right that it is not necessarily 100% one or the other. It can be both.
DeleteI am not saying it is 100% due to variance, but I think variance can explain all it. I think it does explain most of it in the case of Edwards. Edwards doesn't have to play any better to produce better IMO. He made comments along those lines this week, so I think he agrees. The coaches keep giving him carries because I think they agree too. We have no indication that NFL interest has waned, so it's possible to likely they agree as well.
Pointing at YPC as a definitive measure of RB performance, sometimes but not other times, is problematic. It's easy to site countless examples of where YPC doesn't tell you anything about a player that makes a lick of sense.
For example, Fitz Toussaint decreasing his YPC every year while at Michigan. We're talking about an NFL player here - he did not get worse! Those kinds of observations are nonsensical. But if you craft a narrative around YPC you can get to these places.
We just went through this with Corum and Edwards last year. Edwards had a better YPC than Corum. Now Corum is better than Edwards. You can read into last year and assume Edwards is going to be a 1000 yard back this year. OR, alternatively, you can take YPC with a grain of salt, look at the fact that Corum was getting WAY more carries than Edwards last year and thus, was probably a better player and going to continue to get more carries than Edwards, which would produce not enough carries for Edwards to get to a 1000 yards.
Note - even if Edwards was running for 7 ypc again (never a likely proposition), he would not have enough carries right now to be on pace for 1000 yards.
One response to this is "Edwards got worse". I don't believe this is likely or rational, even if, as you say Anon, Edwards is not playing as well.
Thunder has done two things: He predicted 1000 yards for Edwards and then, when it looked like he wasn't going to do it, declared that Edwards got worse this offseason. I disagree with both.
From a few days ago:
"Yes, I do actually think Edwards got worse in the off-season. I don't see the same vision, and I don't see the same chutzpah we saw from him at the end of last year. He's not patient through the hole, he's not seeing things, and he's not even really trying to be a physical runner. "
Okay, Lank, if the opinions didn't work...and neither did the stats...how about PFF's lead draft analyst Trevor Sikkema?
Delete“Edwards is an interesting one, because the slow start to the year really doesn’t bug me a ton,” Sikkema explained. “What you wanted to see from him, and if he was really going to take that leap into maybe being RB1 of this upcoming draft class — and who knows, maybe he ends up there, because I still think that could be in the cards — but it’s just that vision and patience. That’s what I wrote down when I went through summer scouting is, this guy had so much success with those 40-, 50-, 60-yard runs last year, and he knows how athletic he is, that he’s just trying to get to that open space as soon as possible. Marrying that speed and patience part of his game is what is going to yield higher yards per carry averages, not just being this feast or famine guy that will give you a 50-yard run or a 1-yard run. You want to see more consistency in there with him."
So Trevor Sikkema just said he's a boom-bust guy. Oh, wait...no, he said feast or famine. My bad.
Everyone is seeing the same thing except you.
Yes, my season prediction was 1,050 yards. Because I thought he would be the same player he was at the end of 2022, when he was showing good patience, vision, explosiveness, etc. He's not doing that. He's not showing good patience or vision (Trevor Sikkema agrees!) and he has zero explosive plays on the ground (as evidenced by, you know, facts).
Your discussion of variance is somewhat irrelevant. Great football players don't have five straight games where they stink without some sort of reason (injury, illness, etc.). We've all heard by now that Corum/Edwards didn't get tackled at all during fall camp, and maybe that's the explanation. Maybe it just takes Edwards five or six weeks of getting hit before he figures things out. But if I'm Mike Hart in 2024 (assuming Edwards returns to college)...I'm not letting Edwards go all camp without getting hit, because it's taking him half a season to get up to speed. And Michigan won't have half a season to wait to get him right - they need him operating at a higher level earlier in the 2024 season if they want to be hitting on all cylinders.
Thanks Thunder. That is useful perspective and interesting to me personally. It's another opinion to go along with others and particularly relevant from a neutral party. Of course, everyone is entitled to their opinions, but it's not necessarily compelling to everyone else. All I've ever asked is if there is distribution data available to back it up. I still haven't seen that but again, another perspective is helpful.
DeleteSo again, that's both useful an interesting. Here is what isn't:
Repeatedly pointing out that Edwards has zero explosive plays this year - because NOBODY is arguing with that.
Repeatedly pointing out that his YPC is lower when you take out the long runs doesn't either - because that's true for EVERYBODY. That data point is not interesting, regardless if it's coming from Zach Shaw or anyone else.
So that's the boom/bust topic above, which is a distinct topic, repeatedly being conflated, about if Edwards has gone from being a good RB last year to one who stinks this year.
"Great football players don't have five straight games where they stink without some sort of reason (injury, illness, etc.)."
Who told you Edwards was a great football player?
People are sitting here saying not only is he not great, he is downright not a good RB. You are saying he stinks!
Regarding the narrative about not getting hit -- that sounds like something you would say but it's easily disproven by you know, the fact that Blake went through the same thing and he is fine by your assessment.
I would assert, again, that Edwards IS up to speed. That Edwards does NOT stink. That there is, in fact, no problem here. Edwards is FINE, just like Corum is fine.
It's a fake narrative to explain things that just are what they are. Sometimes very good RBs go through stretches of 20 or 30 carries or 50 where they don't run for over 4 ypc and it doesn't mean they are playing bad, or that they stink, it just means they are probably going to regress to the mean at some point to get back up to whatever that mean is for them. For Edwards it's not 7ypc and it's not 3ypc. I guarantee you that. It's just math. It's not indicative of being great and then being terrible.
I don't agree with you on Edwards stinking and neither does Trevor Sikkema. "the slow start to the year really doesn’t bug me a ton". " I still think that could be in the cards" for him to be the top RB selected.
So Sikkema agrees with your boom/bust take -- cool. He also agrees with my take that the early season "struggles" are not meaningful -- also cool.
Variance is highly relevant to this discussion. How Hart decides to treat Edwards in camp of 2024 is not.
DeleteTo further clarify my perspective.
DeleteI have expressed doubt about the boom/bust depiction of Edwards. It could be true, but I want to see the data before I buy in that he is any more or less boom/bust than other backs. Everyone is seeing something different than me? I'm OK with that. I could be wrong or slow or whatever else but maybe I'm not.
That's one thing. The other thing is a different thing.
------------------------------------------------------------
I wholeheartedly disagree with the assertion that Edwards stinks, got worse in the offseason, or lost his vision in the offseason, or anything else like that. He is the same back in my view. Perhaps he is playing not as well as last year but while his YPC is half of what it is was that does NOT mean he is half the player that he was. I think it COULD be entirely variance and if it isn't entirely variance, it's mostly variance, which will play out as he gets more carries the rest of the year. I'll eat more eggs than Cool Hand Luke if he finishes the year below 4ypc.
Until then -- Pick a narrative. Is Edwards inconsistent (as indicated by 2022 supposedly) or does he just stink (as indicated by 2023 supposedly)? It can't be both.
@ Lank 5:46 p.m.
DeleteSpeaking of wagers, I'd like to place a wager that you cannot find a place where I have said Edwards is "terrible."
You're taking a story line from Michigan's season and a point of curiosity on my part about a 5-star running back whose production has dropped off significantly, and hyperbolically asserting that I am now calling him terrible. It's just not accurate.
5 games in and I'm feeling better about 1 of 2 big preseason concerns
ReplyDeleteTE blocking -
Loveland, Barner, and Bredeson seem to be grading out well. Trente Jones is chipping in as your dedicated extra blocker too - he could use more snaps (IMHO). Bredeson was probably the most underrated dude in the TTB countdown and has made a leap. We have even less depth than anticipated with Hibner transfer-shirting, but it appears Harbaugh is going to just lean on the 3 starters more heavily. Last year he was using a lot more of them.
With shorter games this is probably fine. But we're still 1 injury away (to any of the above 3) to disrupting the rotation and probably changing the play-calling in favor of a 3rd WR. But the important thing here is that Bredeson, Barner, and Loveland are all playing at a high level and it doesn't look like we miss Honigford or Schoonmacher (or All or Selzer) for now. That's good news.
Hopefully it translates to better competition.
DBs -
this remains the biggest concern on the roster even with Sabb and Wallace emerging as quality players. With shorter games we'll still need 6 or 7 guys against PSU and OSU. We should be good, if everyone is healthy. Harris and Q Johnson are around as insurance policies but could have big flashing targets on their backs against McCord if called into duty. Injuries have muddled things a bit but Nebraska game had Sabb and Johnson playing heavy snaps at safety and Moore rolling down to nickel corner. That might be telling us about how confident Michigan is in their 3rd outside corner right now. Walker returned for his first action of the season but, somewhat surprisingly Waller drew more snaps than Hill. Walker might be looking at a red-shirt and Harris is wobbly. Michigan is looking for someone to step up. One month to go.
Lots of football left to play this year but I'm guessing Michigan will be active in the portal this offseason to find a primary RB for 2024.
ReplyDeleteCompletely agree, and would assume that we'll be able to attract a very legitimate talent given the carries available.
DeleteThere was a 247 interview with Edwards earlier in the week. He conceded to a slow start ... you know what he did not say? He did not claim to be better than ever
ReplyDeleteI don't necessarily agree that Edwards is a "worse" player, but his production is significantly less (worse). I don't think a player loses their vision in an off-season either, but I do think the non contact has caused Edwards to not trust his vision. Corum said something after Week1, but I think it was more about not trusting his instincts. It happens
*RBs don't matter, but despite having 5-7 scholarship RBs, the coaches will test the portal for a better option? Interesting
Tremendous logic except it's already obvious by the fact that they offer any scholarship to the position. They also offer scholarships to long snappers, punters, multiple kickers. Every position matters! <--- still misses the point.
DeleteMore from Trevor Sikkema on Edwards.
ReplyDelete“I don’t really hold anything against him at this point, because that was already something that I was looking for more from him, and I think that we’re still looking for more. But success in the run game, especially when it comes to production, a lot of that has to do with the guys up front. Did they block for you the right way on this player versus another? Did they execute a block a little bit better for Corum when he was in a couple plays earlier, and then someone misses a block and Edwards gets the short end of the stick? For running backs, it’s always really tough to judge them independent of their offensive line, because offensive line play is more important for running."
He gets it.
This is a very probable cause. But, over 5 games now, are we to assume that the OL blocks poorly for Edward, while doing much better for Corum? Mullings? Franklin (!)? Maybe. But we've seen Edwards miss cuts and force things outside in search of a big play
DeleteMaybe it's a mix, but the results are what they are. Slow start indeed
In honor of unhinged double posting (LOL), I'll offer a triple point. Three things, besides RB performance, that affect yards gained on a run play:
Delete1 - OL execution (and TEs and WRs too, not to mention functional blocks via attention given to QB)
2 - offensive playcall and context (e.g., dive on 4th and 1 vs draw on 3rd and 10)
3 - defensive response (opponent response, talent, execution, level of effort, playcall)
Sikkema sounds like a smart dude so I very much doubt he thinks the variation is entirely explained by OL blocking. Maybe that's another pundit -- Trevor Strawman. For the things above to begin to equal out for apples to apples comparison it takes many carries (i.e., sample size matters).
Well considering this season is still fresh in our memories, is the slow start attributed to OL? WR/TE? Play calling? If so, how has that impacted the other RBs?
Delete*we know from watching, PFF or the UFRs that the above variables aren't the problem (except when they ran Edwards 4x in a row, expecting him to move the pile)
So we're supposed to believe that the OL blocks well for Blake Corum and Kalel Mullings but not for Donovan Edwards?
DeleteSikkema isn't saying that stuff *is* happening for Edwards. He's saying it's possible.
Sikkema says there's nothing to worry about.
Delete"I don’t really hold anything against him at this point"
Right. It's possible, but that's why we watch the game. It's why coaches & players study film: the data can point to a potential problem, but the subject matter expert must confirm
DeleteEverybody here watches the games.
DeleteSikkema presumably watches the games.
Edwards and the coaches watch the games.
NFL scouts watch the game.
Edwards UFR score was better than Corum's last week.
Here's Edwards doing the thing you all keep saying he doesn't do.
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yo89Fp6jkEU&ab_channel=BrianCook
Ah, let's unpack the misleading posts:
Delete- UFR has Edwards marginally ahead, while admitting more is expected out of Corum (even said "feelings"). They also close with something along the lines of what I say: "Edwards is working through it. He'll get there"
- actual praise is reserved for Mullings
- PFF had Corum ahead of Edwards (they also have all the other RBs ahead)
- I conceded last year that Edwards progressed to breaking arm tackles. This attempt came from Omar Brown, an FCS transfer with a whopping five tackles last year
@ Lank 5:16 p.m.
DeleteIt's funny to me that you literally cut out the second half of that sentence. Sikkema says he doesn't hold it against him at this point...because it was already something he was looking for more from! That's basically saying, "He has a weakness, and as far as it getting fixed, I'll believe it when I see it."
@ Lank 5:34 p.m.
DeleteAgain...LOL. You found one example out of 51 carries so far this season. That's like a Minnesota fan saying, "Athan Kaliakmanis is inaccurate!" and then having one fan respond with a clip of him throwing a bomb to Daniel Jackson against Michigan at the end of the second quarter.
Oh...I guess Kaliakmanis is accurate, then. Even though he's #11 in the Big Ten in completion percentage.
Edwards broke tackles and ran through contact in 2021. This isn't something new.
DeleteYou can look at his first few games in highlight clips below:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPhyq9LE1qE&ab_channel=HailHailToMichigan
And you can look at his most recent games agaisnt Nebraska and Minnesota.
I'm sorry I didn't include every run of his career to disprove your feels. LOL
Since I'm sure 2021 will be discounted for some reason (it's MAC teams! probably), and 2023 doesn't count, here's one (there are more) example of him running effectively between the tackles, dodging, bouncing, and getting extra yards through contract. No boom. No bust. Just solid RB play from a solid RB against a quality opponent.
Deletehttps://streamable.com/lhtpxk
UFR's review of Edwards as primary RB was this:
"Met the avg safety at 2 yards, bailed out bad playcalling."
"There weren't that many successful runs, but of the dozen there were, Edwards did a thing to generate more yards than the blocking gave him on seven of them."
So yes, I acknowledge that Mgoblog is among the chorus that thinks Edwards is struggling in 2023, he's also a guy that felt like Edwards was an excellent RB.
I am here saying the junior RB did not forget how to RB in one offseason. That the boom/bust narrative is viable but not data-driven and, at a minimum, likely overstated.
Small sample sizes can tell you any narrative you want, yesterday's game could flip every one of yours if, you take that kind of thing seriously.
Takeaways from both videos:
Delete1) Edwards went down after the *first guy hit him (except one v ohio)
2) I forgot he broke arm tackles in non-Con as a FR
3) from the Maryland game & after, we see how MICHIGAN can & should be using this special talent
*the TCU run was a weird inclusion, since that was Trevor Keegan caving in their DLine
Some of those are Edwards falling forward and getting extra yards, turning 4 into 6, etc.
DeleteHe doesn't break tackles like Deveon Smith. He isn't as shifty as Mike Hart. He doesn't have Corum's low center of gravity, or Haskin's balance. But he's got enough of each of those guys best traits to be very effective between the tackles. He's physical, not remotely afraid of contact, with demonstrated ability to break tackles, fall forward, etc. He's a good RB projected to go in the top couple rounds of the NFL draft to play RB. This shouldn't be a debate.
We all agree he's very good in space, though lacks the wiggle of Corum to beat a safety 1 on 1, he utilizes his speed instead to keep separation. I remember 1 run he bounced outside against TCU, just outrunning 2 guys that could have had him in the backfield but instead going for a few yard gain by outrunning them to the sideline. Good and by no means does it preclude him from being good between the tackles or deserve him to be insulted as a boom/bust back.
We all also agree that he's an excellent receiver. Ditto.
Where we disagree is that somehow these things preclude him from being a good RB in the traditional sense of between the tackles carries on 3rd and 3 or whatever. He's good at other stuff. But also this, as his career success rate indicates.
This guy could break his hand and lose almost all his catching ability and still be a great traditional RB. Hypothetically.
Donovan Edwards would need 191 yards on his next carry to reach last year's average of 7.08 yards per carry for this season.
ReplyDeleteFunny
DeleteI like how they played Edwards yesterday: they splits his RB carries w/two "Harball" backs, and used him in the passing game. Stopped playing him when the game was decided. One drop in 3yrs is acceptable. I want to see MOAR Donovan Edwards ... RB, Slot, in motion between the two ... take some of Tyler Morris snaps, and anyone else in Slot; they're not better than Edwards
I'm curious what you think this fact proves Thunder.
DeleteYesterday Edwards did EXACTLY what you two keep insisting he doesn't do and/or can't do. Run consistently for 4-6 yard ever carry. He didn't boom, he didn't bust. Corum did. Edwards didn't.
It's almost like you'll slice and dice ypc numbers to justify your feelings no matter what.
BTW, in Tuttle time, Mullings ripped off a 23 yarder and followed it up with -1 yarder before Leon Franklin came in. Boom/bust back or nah? Take away his 23 yarder and he had 7 carries for 24 yards, barely over 3 yards per carry.
DeleteCorum had a 40 yarder (where he avoided contact and ran OOB before he needed to) and was otherwise 8 carries for 29 yards, barely over 3 yards per carry. As with Mullings, it took him 2 tries to convert with 1 yard to go.
Maybe they need to put in a pile pusher like Edwards LOL.
Are these narratives dumb? You betcha. Are they backed by small sample size facts - you betcha. Is there are parallel to your Edwards narratives? Hmm, well I'll leave that to you.
@ Lank 5:07 p.m.
Delete*sigh*
Okay, let's do this again after last week:
YPC against Minnesota:
Tuttle: 18.0
Wilson: 10.0
Corum: 7.7
Dunlap: 7.0
Mullings: 5.9
Edwards: 5.0
McCarthy: 4.3
Franklin: 1.7
Denegal: 0.0
Michigan obliterated Minnesota on the ground (33 carries, 191 yards, 4 TD), and the only people Edwards beat out in YPC were two quarterbacks and a walk-on RB.
I've never said, "If Edwards gets 4 carries in a game, he'll never run for between 4-6 yards on all of them." That's such a ridiculously small sample size and a cockeyed narrative on your part, and you know it.
The stats are the stats. You keep trying to whittle it down to "Ah-ha, he did something consistent against Minnesota!" or "He drove his feet against Nebraska on that one play!"
These are the types of arguments I see from parents trying to argue for their kids to get more playing time. Yes, your kid scored a TD in a scrimmage. Yes, when we were beating a team by 30 points, your kid juked a linebacker in the hole. What about the rest of the time?
Donovan Edwards has the lowest rushing average of any (qualifying) running back in the Big Ten, and we're halfway through the season. Just accept that he's not playing well right now. It's okay. You will still have dinner on the table, and the sun will still come up tomorrow.
"That's such a ridiculously small sample size and a cockeyed narrative on your part, and you know it"
DeleteWelcome to my world!
It's funny that I am told things like "the stats are the stats" immediately after being scolded about sample size. You just listed YPC stats with sample sizes of one! It's almost like you'll use YPC to tell any story you want.
DeleteAgain, NOBODY is disputing the YPC stats. We are disputing the interpretation of them.
When Edwards had a better YPC than Corum last year he got criticized as being a boom/bust back (a.k.a. inconsistent and unreliable). I disagreed with THAT because there's no stats to prove he's less reliable or less consistent than other backs -- and as a starter for those 3 games he proved highly reliable.
Again - Edwards success rate in 22 was almost identical to Haskins in 21, and better than Higdon's in his 1000 yard season in 2018.
The narrative crafted around that boom/bust depiction (he doesn't break tackles or get extra yards) is disproved by a bunch of plays where he does the thing he supposedly doesn't do. It's anecdotal yes, but how else are you supposed to combat a fairy tale?
DeleteHow about this. Donovan Edwards has not yet broken a long run this season and his YPC is still respectable (as compared to other RBs if you remove long runs from theirs). As we all agree when you subtract long carries, YPC are going to go down. Nothing to subtract from Edwards in 23.
I'm not asking you to play Edwards more, LOL. You are the one who thought he was going to rush for 1000 yards, not me. I'm asking you to think about not going from predicting 1000 yards for a backup RB one week, to, a few weeks later, calling him a struggling player who is inconsistent and lacks vision and lacks patience and everything else.
I'm asking you to not forget the 140 carries we saw in 2022 just because you haven't seen those results more recently.
The results aren't there this year -- NOBODY nobody NOBODY nobody -- is arguing he is producing great results. It's all about how seriously you want to take 50 carries. How much you want to read into that knowing how much variance you get from play to play. (as evidenced by Mullings going form +23 to -1 on back to back plays -- guess he just wasn't playing well on the second one LOL). How much you want to lock into YPC in 2023 knowing what you saw last year showed you he is exceedingly capable of doing much more.
I told you not to take Ty Isaac's 40 carries at USC too seriously -- he topped out as a backup RB at Michigan, behind Deveon Smith who you say is not good.
I told you not to take Blake Corum's "struggles" in 26 carries as a freshman too seriously -- he lived up to the hype you doubted as a sophomore and you know the rest.
I told you not to take Michael Cox's 19 carries at Michigan too seriously - he went on to run for 3.6 ypc as a starter at UMass.
I promise you that the Donovan Edwards who is playing RB for Michigan in 2023 is the same Donovan Edwards who played RB for Michigan in 2022 and 2021.
The guy who averaged 5 ypc in one season and who averaged 7 ypc in another season is the same guy who is currently averaging only 3.5 ypc in this season.
He wasn't a 7ypc player last year (that number was inflated but an unusual number of very long runs). He isn't a 3.5 ypc player this year (that number is deflated by a lack of long runs). Both are true even if the first one was 140 carries and the second one is 51 carries.
Guys don't change this much from year to year, game to game, or half to half. YPC can and does. So don't read so much into it and then tell fairly tales to explain big swings in outcomes.
Donovan Edwards has 226 career carries for 1,342 yards at 5.9 ypc.
You are reading WAY too much into the last 50 of those. Just as you read too much into the longest 10 of those last year.
Hassan Haskins had 3 games in 2021 that he averaged under 3.5 ypc with 12 to 19 carries in each. He didn't suck those games. Karan Higdon had 3 games in 2019 when he ran for under 4.0 yards per carry with 15-30 carries in each. Those guys didn't suck those games! They got a boatload of carries and still didn't produce many long gainers. It's just like...normal stuff. And they were starters getting full workloads! Edwards is not.
Just accept that RB results are not all about how great they are playing individually at the moment. Accept that good RBs are good RBs and bad games can happen even if they are playing well. Dinner will still be on the table, etc.
I don't mean to sound too confrontational or come off as rude. Sorry about that. There's a lot of good analysis on this site which is why I read it.
DeleteI'll just say that I think there's a track record here of reading too much into RBs in general but especially via YPC based on limited sample sizes. And yes, that can be 15 carries, 50 carries, or 140 carries.
There's a track record of looking at backup RBs and saying this guy should play less or this guy should play more based on whatever happened in a given week. And an assumption that such a change will change things for the better. To my knowledge that has not ever been validated and has been directly disproven multiple times.
The last major reshuffling was in 2020 (when freshman Corum surged ahead of Charbonnet and Evans) by the end of the year and prior to that for a primary starter to be displaced was 2019 (when position-change Haskins surged ahead of Charbonnet by November). I don't think either of these were predicted by this blog.
Things are more stable than that most of the time.
Pecking order to finish 2020: Haskins, Corum, Charbonnet, Evans
Pecking order to finish 2021: Haskins, Corum, Edwards
Pecking order to finish 2022: Corum, Edwards, Mullings
Pecking order in 2023: Corum, Edwards, Mullings
Guys are who they are, mostly. That's how I see it and I don't think there's a lot of evidence that that's not the case in Michigan history, going back well beyond the Harbaugh era.
When Haskins or Higdon had those low production games, how did the rest of the offense do? Because Edwards slow start is happening while the rest of the offense is fine, including for the other RBs
DeleteYeah I mean if your offense is struggling as a whole your primary RB might not produce but it's worth remembering that Edwards isn't the starter. How did the offense do when he was the starter? -- exceptionally well.
DeleteRight now Edwards is getting a sprinkling of carries and even when he does what people say he isn't doing (running for 4-6 yards on every play) he is depicted as struggling. Even when he grades out favorable in things like UFR - he is depicted as struggling. When Edwards was getting big plays -- he was boom/bust and his YPC was ignored. Now that he's not getting big plays, his YPC is getting carted out as PROOF that he is not as good as last year.
The point of bringing up Higdon and Haskins bad games was their production varied from week to week. Even when they were at the summit's of their careers they varied. They had significant stretches where they did not produce an impressive YPC.
For example, Haskins ran for 47 yards in 19 carries in a game where Michigan scored 38 points against Wisconsin. Over 2 straight weeks he produce just 88 yards on 31 carries. The next two weeks he had over 110 yards on 20 carries and a couple TD. Thunder would perhaps tell you he changed something and played better or played worse but I would tell you he was the same guy we saw winning the starting job in 2019, leading the team in carries in 2020, and then wrecking most of the rest of his games in 2021. I don't think he was slumping or playing worse in those 2 games I think it's just inherent that production varies -- even mid season -- even with all conference caliber backs who are going to get drafted after putting up 5 TDs on OSU.
Against Iowa last year Edwards ran for 5.8 ypc while Corum averaged 4.6 ypc. Against Rutgers it was 7.3 vs Corum's 5.5. Did it mean anything? No. Was Corum 'struggling' relative to Edwards? No. Nor was Haskins struggling when he produced modest numbers over however many games or however many carries at some point in his career.
The results are the results. We only control what we read into it.
Last year Blake Corum averaged 8.4 YPC in 62 carries starting on the Michigan 20-40. Meanwhile he averaged just 6.1 YPC in 57 carries on the opponents 20-40. It seems like he really loses steam after getting into opponents territory. To the tune of a difference of 2.3 yards every time he touched the ball (on average). That's pretty close to the difference in Corum and Edwards YPC in 2023 of 2.5!
DeleteAnd don't get me started about the red zone. In 58 carries Blake averaged a woeful 2.5 YPC in the opponents red-zone.
Based on these stats it's clear that Corum was a guy who feasted at mid field and struggled in the red zone. These are large sample sizes!
So yes, he was a Heisman contender with lofty PFF ranks in 2022 but did you also know his YPC was down from the previous season. It's true. Blake Corum got worse from 2021 to 2022 and that was particularly true in the red zone where his YPC decrease from 4.1 to 2.5.
Blake Corum is a fraud!
<--- the stats are real. the narrative is satire.
@ Lank
DeleteEdwards is struggling in 2023. The stats show it. Everyone is noticing it. Edwards himself has said he's had a slow start. Has he improved the past couple weeks? Yeah, it seems so.
You can take the 4 carries against Minnesota and say, "See, he got 4-6 yards every time so you're wrong" or you can take the fact that we're six games in and there are questions about whether a linebacker-turned-running back is taking Edwards's spot on the depth chart. (P.S. I don't think Mullings is RB2, but I do think Edwards would have received more than 4 carries against Minnesota if he were playing a little better, so I do believe Mullings is starting to eat into Edwards's playing time a little bit.)
There's all this bluster about Michael Cox sucking and getting 3.6 YPC at UMass, but he played for a crappy team. Other running backs on the roster had the following YPC in 2012:
2.71
2.82
1.43
2.0
1.0
He went on to get drafted and make it to the NFL. It's pretty hilarious to me that my assessment of running backs is called into question because I looked at a 5th string running back and said, "Hey, this guy is pretty good, so maybe he should play more" and everyone laughed and then he made it to the NFL.
The same goes for Ty Isaac. I thought he was pretty good before coming to Michigan, and all he did was get to Michigan and rank #4 all-time (out of backs with 100+ carries) in yards per carry with 6.1, tied with Tyrone Wheatley. That's better than Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, who have played behind Joe Moore Award-winning lines. No, Isaac didn't make it to the NFL, but he was productive in college and had 192 carries, which is not an insignificant number.
There are guys I've missed on, so I'm not saying I'm 100% accurate and I should be trusted every time on running backs. Translating high school talent to the college level can be hit-and-miss. But I think I've been pretty good at seeing guys on the field in college and having a good handle on whether they can be successful or not. When you point to Isaac/Cox as examples of my failures to grasp the nuances of the running back position, that's actually a terrible argument that just shows you have an ax to grind rather than a valid point.
You keep saying I'm taking small sample sizes, but we're halfway into the season. On a game-to-game basis, it's a small sample size.
DeleteJ.J. McCarthy throwing 3 interceptions against BGSU was a small sample size. If we were halfway through the season and he was throwing 2-3 interceptions every week...he would probably be benched. This isn't a one-week thing with Edwards where he's a low-producing running back. It's happening every week.
I get your point but it's 51 carries compared to 48 he got in the the last 2 games last year.
DeleteHaskins and Higdon went through worst stretches of 50 carries in their thousand yard seasons. It's not concerning when you look at the bigger picture.
"there are questions about whether a linebacker-turned-running back is taking Edwards's spot on the depth chart"
Where? Who? Are they interested in a wager?
Michael Cox -- we've covered this before.
DeleteMichael Cox was drafted to return kicks in the NFL. He did that but also fell into 26 carries mostly when he was literally the only healthy option on the team. He averaged 2.9 ypc! Now here you are talking about how terrible Donovan Edwards - projected to go in the first couple rounds of the draft is - because he's averaged 3.5 ypc (against much tougher competition than Cox faced in college).
Here is a fact -- Michael Cox was never productive or successful as a RB after high school.
He had talent which - everyone acknowledged in the open field - but he was not a good RB. Think of Giles Jackson if it helps.
"I think I've been pretty good at seeing guys on the field in college and having a good handle on whether they can be successful or not. When you point to Isaac/Cox as examples of my failures to grasp the nuances of the running back position, that's actually a terrible argument that just shows you have an ax to grind rather than a valid point."
DeleteYou said Isaac should start over Smith during the Hoke era, after watching him play at USC and Smith play at Michigan. I argued with you and Harbaugh came and determined Smith was better. Isaac got a chance for a minute but then got passed by Higdon, who was younger and slower. Then both Smith and Isaac played in the same pro league and Smith was more productive there too, by a long shot. Smith is STILL playing pro ball and Isaac is in sales. So I don't know how you can claim that you made a good observation in that case when it was disproven twice over, at least.
Michael Cox is covered above. Yes - he made the NFL as a kick returner. He was not a successful RB anywhere, including college.
Cox was in the same era where you argued Michael Shaw should play over Vincent Smith. This was our original YPC debate. Rich Rod preferred Smith. Then Hoke/Borges arrived and they ALSO played Smith over Shaw (not to mention Cox). So you had a second coaching staff confirming both your takes of Shaw over Smith and Cox over Smith.
So in all 3 cases (Isaac, Cox, Shaw) you were proven wrong twice. Maybe you just have a blind eye for guys named Smith.
....
I'm not trying to call you out here. You've made plenty of good and bad predictions, that's the nature of predictions. One good one (or a good set, I should say) that I particularly like is your preference for defensive guys who used to play QB -- that one has worked out repeatedly. You were also all the way onboard the Mike Sainristil position switch while I was vehemently skeptical. So again, I'm not trying to call you out overall, but I do want to point out that your continued reliance on analysis via YPC has been disproven again and again and again.
For all the good cool-headed analysis over the years on your site, the RB analysis continues to be an achilles heel and I suspect your misinterpretation of YPC is the biggest culprit.
"Translating high school talent to the college level can be hit-and-miss."
DeleteAgree 100% and I think you've done well at times even when you've zagged away from the consensus of the sites. I think you've called out at least a dozen busts that the sites gave decent rankings to.
@Lank 1119: neither of those videos proved your point. Edwards went down after being hit, period. He did break a couple MAC arm tackles. But even in the Minnesota game, we saw Mullings & Corum hit defenders and keep going. We saw the Gopher RB26 push piles of MICHIGAN DL for yards at a time .... there's a huge difference
DeleteAnon's question wasn't answered. Which games did higdon & Haskins struggle in? I'd like to compare the rest of the offense. I remember "Illinois was Corum's worst game," but he had our biggest play and PFF rated him higher then anyone on the team. I'd like the context regarding the higdon & Haskins slumps, bc w/Edwards slow start, it's seeming worse because everything else is grand
@Lank 651: you say you're not trying to be confrontational, but this scenario speaks for itself ... no one wonders why plays are less explosive closer to the EZ
Not the Ty Issac & Michael Cox debates 🙄😂
@ Lank 9:09 p.m.
DeleteYes, 51 compared to the 48 to end last year! He was playing great at the end of 2022...and now he's not playing great. I have referred to this before as a slump. Cade McNamara was much better in 2021 than he looked at the beginning of 2022. Sometimes there are things that affect players, such as injuries, mindset, training, weight gain/weight loss, scheme, etc.
@ Lank 9:27 p.m.
Delete"Cox was not a successful RB anywhere, including college."
I mean, that depends on your definition of successful. He earned a starting running back job where he averaged almost a yard more than any other running back on the roster, he got drafted because of the talent he showed, and he played two years in the NFL. If you call that unsuccessful...hmm, okay.
@ Anonymous 4:07 p.m.
DeleteThat's kind of the point with Edwards, isn't it? This is not like every RB is struggling in 2013 because the offensive line is terrible. This is a good offensive line in 2023 and all the runners are finding success...EXCEPT for Edwards.
You can call it a slump, and that's a possible explanation, but not a certainty at all. The point about Corum's splits above is that you can look at 60 or 80 carries and see bigger differences - just based on things like which quarter they are playing in or what the starting yardage is or what the weather is like or the color of pants. Some of this stuff obviously does NOT matter, but some of it less obviously does not matter. We can create narratives around this stuff but some of it just strains credibility.
DeleteThe idea that Donovan Edwards is in a slump due to him personally playing worse is something that strains credibility to me. You've got people (like Mgoblog) also saying Blake Corum is not as good, and I don't buy that one either. These are ESTABLISHED player who are PROVEN to be good. They didn't just enter into a half-season long slump.
So I think you can say "he was playing great" and now he's "not playing great" and treat the YPC as evidence of that but then you better be willing to say based on YPC that "he plays great" between the 40s and "struggles " in the red zone. It's bologna though.
"Cade McNamara was much better in 2021"
Deletewas he though? I think this a great example of how the results can be very different but Cade showed us as a starter in 2020, in 2022, and in 2023 that he is not a very good Quarterback. As a starter in 2021 he had good games but I don't know how much we can credit him for this when we see how much better the Harbaugh offense has done without him, and realize that he's surrounded by the best OL in country, an elite coaching staff, and skill positions loaded with NFL picks.
Michigan made Cade look far better than he was for much of 2021. They won despite him, not because of him. He wasn't playing well so much as being managed well.
You see the trees but I'm trying to tell you about the forest.
@ Lank 9:13 p.m.
ReplyDelete"He got drafted as a kick returner, not a running back" is a really weak argument. He got drafted based on what he showed at running back. He had 2 kickoff returns for 2 yards in college, and both came at Michigan. The Giants didn't see him on kickoff returns and say, "Wow, that guy really sucks as a running back, but by Jove, he averaged 1.0 yards per kickoff return a few years ago, so let's draft him!"
If YPC were the only thing I looked at, why didn't I pound the table for Drake Johnson (5.02 YPC is more than De'Veon Smith's 4.18)? Why not Tavierre Dunlap (5.6 YPC is more than Kalel Mullings's 4.8)? Why not Tru Wilson (5.87 YPC was better than Karan Higdon's 5.26)? I could go on.
Cox was good with the ball in his hands. So was Isaac. Were they great pass blockers? Did they know the plays? Did they fumble the ball in practice? Those are things we can't see.
You know who's NOT good with the ball in his hands right now? A guy who's not running through tackles, finding creases, creating big plays, etc.? Donovan Edwards! This isn't to say that he can't do it, because of course he can - we've seen it. A home run hitter who hasn't hit a home run in 18 games isn't suddenly a slap hitter with no power. He CAN hit home runs. But he's not doing it right now. The same goes for Edwards. He's not playing well.
P.S. Edwards has indeed looked better the past two weeks, so maybe he's figuring it out.
I disagree with your assessment of Cox. The NFL does not draft on production and if they did they wouldn't have drafted Cox at all.
DeleteWhat is more likely - that they looked at him failing to win a starting RB or even top backup job at Michigan and then failing to get 4 ypc in a weak division thereafter and said "now this is a RB we want!"?... OR they looked at him and said "he showed flashes in the open field, maybe he has untapped potential as a returner"?
I'm not going to dig around to find the quotes but Giants said as much at the time. His NFL usage reflected their intent. He barely got drafted and didn't produce anything notable at the NFL level, so that's not much validation for Cox is an underrated RB takes.
You hung your hat on getting drafted (barely) with Rudock as well. But again he has fewer yards than Deveon Smith in the NFL so this isn't much of a case. It's one thing to note a 1st round draft pick but the line between a 7th rounder and an UFDA is not so distinct. In the end it is the production that matters, not that one other scout/GM had a twinkle in their eye about potential hiding in a 7th rounder. We are not talking about Tom Brady proving everyone wrong here. Nor are we talking even about somebody like recent Lions draft find Malcolm Rodriguez providng himself as a multi-year backup contributor. These guys were given a shot and didn't do anything with it and didn't last long so ultimately no different than most UDFAs.
If you want to hang your hat on Cox getting 1 ypc more than some nobody backup RB with no name (actually Jordan Broadnax) ...well that's one line of reasoning.
DeleteThis is not exactly Michigan football we are talking about. Broadnax weighs 184 pounds and also ran for less than 3 ypc when the starter at UMASS ran for 4.7.
Cox got the bulk of carries because he's obviously more talented than his teammates. He got a chance at Michigan, he got a chance at UMass, he got a chance with the NY Giants and in none of those places did he prove himself to be a high quality RB. I think that means you were proven wrong, definitely but you disagree.
@ Lank 2:12 p.m.
DeleteCox got a few carries, and I hopped on the bandwagon early on. Basically, as soon as I saw him on the field at Michigan. Everyone else guffawed when I was like, "Wait a minute, he's got something here." He then went to a crappy school and still got himself drafted.
Fun fact: UMass went from 1980 to 1999 and then to 2010 without having anyone drafted. Cox was the next guy picked in 2013. A school that was literally an afterthought to the NFL, and the guy I liked was the one the NFL singled out was one of just 4 guys in 34 years to be picked.
But nope...let's hold that guy up as a reason that Thunder doesn't know what he's talking about. LOL
I see you ignored my question about hanging my hat on yards per carry, by the way. All the guys with superior yards per carry averages that I never got on the bandwagon for...
Delete...but all I rely on is yards per carry?
@Thunder
DeleteI remember things differently. Cox broke a couple runs in garbage time and I think that caught everyone's attention. Well, at least the die-hards who were still watching at those times. But he was a young guy who looked good in space and that had everyone doing the eyeball emoji.
It was when you started saying arguing this guy should get more carries based on what he did against Delaware State and Bowling Green that people like me said "hold up, there are probably good reasons why this guy is still near the bottom of the depth chart".
Hoke arriving in 2011 was seen as a fresh opportunity for whatever grudge Rodriguez surely had against our would-be-hero, but Hoke came and...made the exact same decision. Cox, even as a senior, wasn't good enough to have a meaningful position on the RB depth chart at Michigan.
Ironically, this is was a case where you were looking at a guy with obvious-to-everyone talents as a runner in space (e.g., Issac, Shaw) and equating that with RB ability. You were proven incorrect again and again. He was NEVER successful as a RB at any level after high school. This is a fact that you repeatedly gloss over by just saying he was drafted. Which is another fact - he was drafted to return kicks.
It's interesting to me that your are so vehemently anti-Edwards now when he is the exact type of back you have historically advocated for -- a guy with speed who can break longer runs to inflate his YPC. I just didn't realize how flimsy this rationale was. But if you believe a guy can change from good back to bad back from game to game I guess it all adds up.
"all I rely on is yards per carry?"
Delete@Thunder
I don't think this and didn't think this. I think you are applying YPC inconsistently to back up your narrative.
@JE
DeleteThanks for making my point back to me. Remember when I said Joe is Cade. You finally got it.
Milton is getting managed - successfully. More successfully than Cade, because he is better than Cade. Milton will get drafted because of his potential, but also because he is outplaying and outproducing other guys who got drafted, like Jake Rudock and Nate Stanley to substantiate the glimmer. MAYBE we are talking about a 7th round flier, but draft projections say we are talking about round 3-5 which is a completely different tier of player and level of interest.
Where you are wrong is in asserting that Milton was managed successfully at M. The 2020 team was bad and did bad - with Cade and with Joe. Milton played hurt in a COVID year where the wheels fell off the offense, on OL, at the skill positions, on defense, etc. Everywhere except oh so important RB position. Three years later we have a lot more data that is informative. Cade stinks and is unsuccessful. Joe is successful.
You want to compare Milton to Dillon Gabriel and Hendon Hooker to Spencer Petras. That says it all right there.
I would like one of you to explain why Blake Corum last year averaged 7.3 YPC in 48 carries against teams where the final margin was 0-7 points and 4.6 YPC in 29 carries against teams where the final margin was 8-14 points. Or, alternative, why this number of carries is irrelevant to anything.
DeleteNote: this is a notable number of carries (29 and 48) with a difference in results of 2.7 YPC. The current difference in 2023 in YPC between Edwards and Corum is 2.5 YPC.
@ Lank 11:51 a.m.
DeleteI didn't say Edwards was a bad back. I said he's playing poorly and that he's struggling. I find it odd that other players can struggle at times (McCarthy had a poor stretch last year, Cornelius Johnson has had issues with consistency, etc.), but when I say Donovan Edwards is struggling right now, it's as if I called him a witch and asked him to be tied to a rock and thrown in a lake.
Have I called for Edwards to be benched? For his scholarship to be taken away? For Leon Franklin to start taking his reps? I don't even know why you're so worked up about this.
@ Lank 12:11 p.m.
DeleteYou're floundering.
I'll jump ahead and give you my answer. It doesn't matter. Blake Corum did not happen to play better against teams that Michigan beat by one score than teams that Michigan beat by two scores. That doesn't make any sense.
DeleteBlake Corum was the same player in games where Michigan won by one score as games where Michigan won by 2 scores. He performed the same. Why wouldn't he? There is no rational explanation for why would play better in one scenario than in another scenario but the results are substantially different.
No identifiable meaningful difference in his performance in these two scenarios -- but the results are different. The difference in results is substantial -- 2.7 yards per carry.
The reason is because...they just were. Every carry outcome has a randomness element and a litany of things happening that have nothing to do with how well the RB is playing.
1. Blocking execution by players including their ability/talent levels
2. Defensive execution by players including their ability/talent levels
3. Context of playcall (definition of success can be 1 yard or 10+)
4. Playcalls by OC and DC (mgoblog calls this RPS -- i.e., random)
5. How well the RB is playing
Continued insistence that the least important thing in the above list is the thing that determines running game results is a fundamentally incorrect perspective.
If you take the perspective that the first 4 things determine run game outcomes -- which you can see obviously they do given play by play variance for players (we just saw last week Mullings gain 23 on one play and -1 the next) - then you know it will take more than 50 carries to get to a place where apple to apple comparisons between RBs make sense.
They don't even make sense for 140 carries last year because if you believe Edwards was playing better than Corum in 2022 based on YPC well your hypothesis is certainly in doubt now isn't it? YPC told a certain story after 2022 but we also know who the starter was and who the backup was until injury came in.
So that's two cases where you can look at YPC and craft a narrative but it's bunk.
@Thunder
DeleteYou said Edwards got worse in the offseason and lost vision. I think that's bunk.
People can play poorly and people can struggle. Let me stop right there and agree with you. Me saying "he's not struggling" isn't the same thing as me saying nobody can ever struggle.
That's just not what's happening here. It's also not what is happening with Cornelius Johnson who has had bad hands for his career and probably will always have bad hands. Him dropping a pass doesn't mean he is playing poorly -- we just saw him last game drop and easy pass and catch a tough one. Just like it doesn't mean Kaleel Mullings is struggling when he runs for -1 or slips or whatever else.
Over 100 catch attempts, Corn Johnson will probably drop 5. Those can happen anytime, regardless of if he's playing well or planning poorly, sometimes random stuff happens. Over 100 rush attempts, Kaleel Mullings might fumble 1 of them. That 1 can happen at any time, because a certain playcall by the defense combined with a certain playcall by the offense and within that a certain block execution in a matchup between a DT and an OG results in a defenders helmet hitting the ball at a certain angle at a certain time. Randomness is part of the game.
That doesn't mean Mullings was bad last year and good this year. Even if he fumbled once every 14 carries in 2022 and has never fumbled in twice as many carries in 2023.
So when Edwards tells us and the coaches tell him that he doesn't need to do anything different but just keep at it -- that is the right approach. If you are doing something wrong - if you are struggling - you do something different. If you're doing the right thing and outcomes are just not all the way in your control -- you just keep doing what you are doing.
The coaches are telling Edwards to keep doing what he is doing. The results aren't there but if it was about his poor play - the coaches would tell him to change something and he would say I need to do something different.
It's very simple. Individual player performance and results are not related one to one. Pretending they are is a fantasy. It's a team game, with 22 players on the field. and they all have an influence. Yes, the influence is not the same for all 22 but it's not all about 1 guy.
DeleteLet's be honest. We all think that if Edwards is given 20-25 carries on Saturday - he's going to produce good results.
DeleteHis "struggles" will disappear into thin air. Because they are not a real thing.
His struggles are indeed a real thing. Through six games this year, he's running for a lower yards per carry than any other back in the Big Ten. That's real.
DeleteIndiana is #91 in rushing defense, so maybe he would have a good day. Akron's Lorenzo Lingard averaged 8.07 yards per carry and scored his only touchdown this season against Indiana.
Maryland's Antwain Littlejohn averaged 10.4 yards per carry against Indiana and hasn't topped 3.70 against any other team.
So yeah, Edwards could have a good game on Saturday. It doesn't mean he would be playing at a high level.
So in the first section you equate results with individual performance and in the last you point out that results vary by context and are not equivalent to performance.
DeleteWhich is it?
The results are real and no one disputes them. It's about how we interpret that. I've laid out a lot of instances where your interpretation of YPC has been disproven. You agree that it doesn't relate to performance except when it does.
I'd love to hear an explanation for the significant difference in results for Corum in one score and two score games over a sample size you are comfortable drawing conclusions with.
50 carries, sprinkled over 6 games, in various contexts and play calls and levels of difficulty. It's very easy to dismiss this as a real outcome not tied to any real difference in performance.
DeleteI gave an example above with Corum with two samples of 48 carries and 29 carries where there was a 2.7 ypc difference within the same year and in very similar contexts.
Now here is an example with Edwards with two samples of 51 carries and 27 carries where there is a 1.5 ypc difference.
Edwards through midseason in 2022 average 5.0 ypc and now through midseason he is averaging 3.5 ypc.
A more defensible "narrative" than Edwards is struggling because he got worse in the offseason is that Edwards is a back who needs more carries to get into his comfort zone. But even that narrative is dubious.
The above example with Corum tells us this scale of differences is easily explained by standard variance.
@Lank1202: what point did I make for you? Back in 2020, I said Cade wasn't going to be good enough. I was hoping Bowman would be our next Rudock (I think you agreed). In 2021, I pointed out that we were winning despite Cade, and that we game planned around him against Washington. You disagreed, questioned my fandom, and went on the typical rant whenever anyone (besides you) points something out about a player (esp Milton & Edwards). You're saying Milton is being managed well - he's bottom half of all QBs in QBR; the offense is screens, behind the LoS & other protective attempts. When the "Airraid" tries to live up to its name, Joe misses, throws a pic, or on a rare occasion connects. That is true now, and it was true at MICHIGAN. Even against Minnesota, he was 0% past 20yds, and something like half past 10yds. The rest were screens, flat routes or WIIIDE open slants. It wasn't the thumb, and games before & since that injury prove as much
Delete"Joe is Cade" is not a good thing. Your point on Cox stands: 'if' Joe is drafted, it's some GM getting twinkle eyed over the howitzer of an arm
JH was on Jansen, complimenting Minter on adjustments. minter doesn't wait for disaster; he sees a trend, and makes the adjustment. That's what good coaches do! Last week against Nebraska, Jim said they wanted to get Donovan going, and increased his carries (even in garbage time (it helped). Last week, we saw less carries but more involvement in the passing game. Most everyone (incl Edwards) acknowledges the slow start, and the offensive staff is making adjustments. If Lank were calling the shots, we would see the exact same thing over & over again, because everything is fine & Edwards is better than ever
I made the point that Joe, like Cade in 2021, is being effectively managed to good results. Joe is Cade.
DeleteJoe was NOT effectively managed in 2020, and Cade has not been effectively managed since 2021. Cade is Joe.
They both can be managed to success but are not great enough to be successful without help. There we agree. But that's not the end of the story and there is plenty of room to differentiate between the two within that range.
You remember correctly that we both had hopes that Bowman might usurp Cade.
" the offense is screens, behind the LoS & other protective attempts" This is flat out not true. Tenn takes downfield shots - probably more often than Michigan - and many of them are glorious. https://youtu.be/Vli89ftjY5w?feature=shared&t=230
Where Joe is managed is that he is not trusted to consistently move the offense in 10-15 yard chunks. It's boom/bust right now. That's how he is being managed. He is being treated as an not fully reliable passer. Not bad - just not excellent. Not Hendon Hooker but also not Spencer Petras (or his replacement).
Milton's INT rate is exceptionally low.
Milton is not NEARLY as bad as Cade is. His production since 2021 is far better. Cade keeps getting hurt since then but Milton's production since 2020 is better overall, in 2020 was statistically equivalent, and career-wise - including at both Michigan and their hand-chosen grad transfer destination - Milton is outproducing him and being evaluated higher by the NFL.
It's time to admit that, yes neither is a Heisman caliber QB, but also that the end of 2020 and Cade's 2021 are outliers in the larger Cade vs Joe debate.
If Lank was calling the shots I would sit Corum and let Donovan cook. So no JE, I hope you enjoy the strawman, but I am indeed pro adjustment. I am just not about being so flimsy with my opinions that I think good players can become bad players and vice versa from week in and week out. Blake Carry can run for <5 yards 30 times in a row and I'm not going to point the finger at him and call him a RB with no vision, but rather ask what the hell is going on with playcalling, blocking execution, etc.
Everything IS fine. There is no problem on offense whatsoever. I said it when people were crying about red zone efficiency in 2021 and 2022 and I don't believe that Corum and Edwards got worse in the offseason either. Doesn't pass my sniff test. I don't believe that fairy tales are true. Sorry.
Delete@ Lank 2:01 p.m.
Delete"So in the first section you equate results with individual performance and in the last you point out that results vary by context and are not equivalent to performance. Which is it?"
I'm saying Edwards COULD have a good game on Saturday. Indiana COULD beat Michigan. J.J. McCarthy COULD throw three interceptions again. It's impossible to predict how Saturday's game will play out. Indiana is not good at run defense. Kalel Mullings or C.J. Stokes or Cole Cabana or Benjamin Hall could have breakout games, too.
"I'd love to hear an explanation for the significant difference in results for Corum in one score and two score games over a sample size you are comfortable drawing conclusions with."
I. Don't. Care.
@Lank 430: you just repeated your own talking points, without addressing what I actually said. You even chopped my quote, ignoring the deep ball
DeleteJoe is not being managed as well as Cade in 21. Tenn got crushed by a really bad Florida team, with one of the ugliest INTs of the year. It's still early, but Joe is bottomed half of the nation in QBR, whereas Cade in 21 was almost twenty points higher; he contributed to a conference championship & playoff appearance. Tennessee is headed for a 7-8 win season
Joe is Cade is not a good thing. He's a bad QB, who will never be at the top of his league. That's not being managed as well, or even at the same level
Okay, why would you make the adjustment Lank? Would you make the adjustment because everything is fine & Edwards is better than ever, or bc he's is off to a slow start?
Who's crying? Remember when we went 5 tries in a row on the goal line against Rutgers? The offense never tried that again. They made an adjustment. Look above to your root causes for RBs not getting it done; the coaches realized they could score without ramming it up the middle, and by making defenses defend more, things got more effective
@Lank 432: what about the post game after Florida? Where's the concerns on consistency, moving in the pocket or making the throw? Where's the aversion to questions about the number of screens? Cherry-picking coach quotes is fun, but misleading. You know better
*as for the cade-JJ story. During the Tenn-SCar game, the announcers had a story about Joe & his maturity. Joe says he was asked to room with Shea, but did not want to live with his competition. Had no intention of interest in learning from & helping ea other while competing. Says he learned a new approach under Hooker, and is passing it on to Nico. Maybe, MAYBE our QB room (not unlike our WR room) had a toxic culture. MAYBE the results translated to the field. Maybe.
@Thunder
DeleteYes, anything can happen.
However, if Edwards really got worse this offseason he should continue on a trajectory of poor play that you assert and we should continue to see poor results if he lost vision, patience, chutpah, mojo, and whatever else you think he lost sometime between January and September.
You and I both know that isn't likely. Because we know Edwards is a very good player and his "struggles" can go away any minute. Because he didn't worse.
I get why you want to filter out the fact that Corum's YPC can vary by 2 or 3 yards for no discernable reason whatsoever. It undermines your premise that individual performance and team results in the run game are the same thing.
@ Lank 11:30 a.m.
DeleteI go down enough rabbit holes in these discussions. I don't need to do another research project just due to your whims. So yeah, I don't care.
The glaringly obvious differences here are that a) everybody else on Michigan's offense is doing well and b) Edwards is literally worse than every other back in the Big Ten according to YPC.
I think the key question at this point for you, Lank, is at what point would you be willing to accept that Edwards is playing poorly or in a slump? What if he gets 100 carries and is still averaging 3.5 yards/carry? What if he goes this entire season without scoring a touchdown? What if we get through OSU and he's only averaging 3.6 yards/carry and has scored 1 touchdown? What if Blake Corum gets hurt and Edwards gets all the reps...but he still puts up these same numbers?
DeleteIf there's no point at which you'll admit that Edwards is playing poorly/slumping, then I think that says a lot.
@JE
Delete"Joe is not being managed as well as Cade in 21"
Agree. Cade was a lesser player managed better on a better team, with a better coaching staff and a better defense and better surrounding skill position talent. Tenn is not as good.
Milton doesn't have the best rushing offense in the country to work off of. Milton is not managed as heavily or as well. But Milton is a better player so you get equivalent results in the passing game.
When you look at passer rating of Cade in 21 and Milton in 23 they are nearly identical (141 vs 139) and with Milton being a more productive runner it's pretty clear who the better player is.
You want to compare Milton to Hooker (a high round NFL draft pick) so OK but you need to compare apples to apples for Cade at Michigan - to JJ.
re: cherry picking. Funny accusation because I've repeatedly pointed out that Milton has better numbers for his career, is in a better position now, and is more likely to be drafted. You tell me McNamara is equivalent because of Rutgers 2020 or Austin Peay 2023 or whatever. You bring up a 2 interception game even though Milton has thrown 3 interceptions in 3 years at Tenn (including that game LOL).
I'm giving you the macro of career stats that disproves you equating these two and I'm giving you micro disproving part of your critique (on deep balls). You're going to argue with whatever I say. Because you decided back in 2020 that Joe was Joe and that meant a QB who should go to D3 to get a starting job. You can just admit you were wrong - it's fine.
I was wrong about thinking Alan Bowman would start and Wilton Speight would play in the NFL and that Brandon Peters looked like he had "it" as a sophomore. It's OK to admit when you are wrong.
As for culture - I didn't make this stuff up - listen to Sam Webb. Cade was toxic and actively undermining JJ...one year ago! Joe Milton not wanting to room with Shea is not the same thing. Not wanting to learn from your elders vs undermining your teammates. Not the same.
But even if it was -- Milton and Cade are the exact same age. You're talking about 2018 or 2019 with Joe and 2022 with Cade. That's 3 years later, at least. Cade's a kid with every advantage sulking around as a senior. Joe's a kid from the muck, notoriously raw coming out of HS, who has learned his lessons. Cade still hasn't - making snarky comments in press conferences and going on podcasts talking crap about JJ, the coaches, the program as a whole. I don't know why you view Joe - a proud Michigan alum who has humbly learned his lessons - with Cade a bitter brat shit talking the team we root for, despite everything we did for him.
So call that a rant if you like. but the way your are framing these guys as equivalent is overtly obsurd. We all know what happened in 2020 and 2021, but we have 2 more years since then and can look back on it with more information and different perspective. As I've said repeatedly -- in 2021 I was on board with saying McNamara was better than Milton. Everything that has happened since the 5 TD Haskins game against OSU has said otherwise.
@Thunder
DeleteI have never once argued with the YPC stats you have carted out repeatedly.
The YPC stats that I cited above for Corum are just as real.
Again, it's all in how you interpret.
@Thunder
DeleteThat's a great question. 100 carries would not be enough necessarily. But 20 might be enough. It depends.
Let me explain. 140 carries produced 7.1 YPC. That was 1.2 YPC more than Corum. Does that mean I thought Edwards was better than Corum? No, not even after 140 carries. Go back to my post on Edwards in the countdown. I was arguing against the 1000 yard prediction. I thought Corum was better and thus would continue to get more carries and Edwards would not be able to get to 1000 unless Corum was out of the way.
OTOH, If I got my wish and Corum was load managed (rested for a full game) and Edwards ran the ball 20 times+ against Indiana and if he was still putting up 3 YPC against Indiana while mulling got 10-20 carries and produced more than 5 YPC. Then I would very likely say he was struggling, and that I was wrong. In 2 days. Caveat: that assumes it wasn't just because he was getting swarmed in the backfield.
So I've answered you. Now answer me - is there any way that you would admit that the first 50 carries of the season are just meaningless noise, play to play variance that hasn't quite yet sorted itself out to the mean?
What would Edwards have to produce on say 10 carries against Indiana to change your mind that he has been struggling because he got worse in the offseason. Or is that impossible?
@ Lank 12:49 p.m.
Delete"is there any way that you would admit that the first 50 carries of the season are just meaningless noise, play to play variance that hasn't quite yet sorted itself out to the mean?"
No. Because I've seen what I've seen. He's missed cuts. He's run into blocked defenders. He's run out of bounds. He's taken plays that would have been explosive and turned them into ho-hum gains. He did it once against Minnesota, too, where he accepted about a 6-yard gain when he would have busted it for a bigger play last year. Again, Mike Hart and Donovan Edwards have talked about it being a slow start, that he wasn't tackled in fall camp, etc. It was the same case for Blake Corum, where he talked about getting up to speed, not trusting his knee, etc. Corum was also making weird plays in the first couple games.
"What would Edwards have to produce on say 10 carries against Indiana to change your mind that he has been struggling because he got worse in the offseason. Or is that impossible?"
It's not entirely about production. If he ran 9 times for 7 yards and then a gaping open hole opens up and he goes for 90, that doesn't tell me he's figured things out. Carlos Brown ran for like 85 yards on one play against Eastern Michigan, but it was on like a trap play where nobody touched him (he was infamous for going down on contact).
We agree it is not all about production.* We disagree on the weight you are putting on 50 carries.
DeleteHow much of the run games (very relative) struggles would you put on using Hinton (instead of Henderson), Barner having a slow start as a blocker, and practicing unfamiliar/ineffective plays (like outside zone, per Mgoblog). Beyond individual variance from play to play, I think it's very likely that the run game collectively didn't hit it's groove yet is explainable by OL turnover, Barner getting up to speed on a team, and scheme experiments.
But they all run behind the same OL you say - not true. For example, the vast majority of Mullings carries have come in the last 3 games and he got very few in the first 3 games.
The things that determine the run game success are NOT the same every play. Beyond OL personnel, Edwards and Mullings and Corum have not all run the same plays or run in same situations. We can't isolate the variables to the RB.
For example, last week we ran pin and pull and busted Corum for a 40 yard run outside. Corum did fine and used his blocks well but other than running through a couple guys trying to trip him, he was untouched. If we ran that same play with Edwards maybe he loses 2 or maybe he busts it for 60. Mullings maybe gets 40 or maybe gets 5. We don't know, because that's the only pin pull play we will run all year against Minny.
So Corum got that benefit of running a familiar play, with well executed blocks, against a bad defense. Without it he runs 8 times for 29 yards and you might say he is struggling. With it you say he isn't struggling. Again, he was hardly touched.
The eye test is the eye test. I'm not seeing the same massive errors that you are seeing from Edwards. On the other end of the coin, I didn't want to give much credit to very fast players simply running through a big hole like Brown or Shaw or Edwards or Isaac have done. Corum's 40 yarder wasn't that easy - he weaved and used his blocks very well - but A LOT of run game is attributable to the execution of the OL and that is variable. Ask any RB or coach. This is not a constant for all the RBs.
And again, I know you do. not. care. but that is how we get a Corum '22 having a 2.7 ypc different in situations that are otherwise theoretically identical. It's just a different pull from the randomness pool and you can get different results with the exact same RB in the same season producing different results.
To put it another way, and there is no way in hell you'll agree with this, but if you replace Edwards with Corum on say 2 of his best-blocked run plays including the pin and pull 40 yarder and assume the same results (which is viable given how we saw Edwards replace Corum's production 1 for 1 last year) for a couple plays, I believe this narrative goes POOF.
*so stop pointing to YPC as definitive
@ Lank 3:50 p.m.
DeleteYou keep coming up with excuses - the line didn't block those plays correctly, the line didn't solidify until the past couple weeks, Edwards didn't get the right play calls, etc. There are 51 different excuses for his 51 different runs.
It's a good thing that Northwestern's Cam Porter and Maryland's Antwain Littlejohn and Wisconsin's Jackson Acker and Illinois' Kaden Feagin and Minnesota's Sean Tyler have superior offensive lines and better play callers and that they're not so unlucky as to be stuck behind the two-time Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line with some schmuck named Sherrone Moore as the offensive coordinator. Just imagine if Littlejohn had to play against a highly ranked defense like Ohio State or if Tyler had to face a stout run D like Michigan, instead of them playing a bunch of weak teams like Bowling Green and UNLV and East Carolina...
Bottom half in QBR in 2020, being managed through screens & flats; ugliest INTs imaginable. Bottom half in QBR in 2023 (year6), being managed through screens & flats; ugliest INT imaginable
DeleteJoe is Joe, and it isn't good
Is Cade good? NO, and I said as much back in 2021; that upset you too
Completion percentage can be so misleading, especially in college, because of the prevalence of bubble screens, smoke screens, slip screens, etc. This was always my qualm with pointing out Denard Robinson's completion percentage (I think it was around 63%) in 2010 with Rich Rodriguez, because it was predicated on all the bubbles he threw to Roy Roundtree and others. Or sprint-out hitches.
DeleteWhen you remove the bubbles, which Al Borges did, suddenly the "accuracy" dropped off significantly. This makes McCarthy's completion percentage that much more impressive, because he's not throwing many bubbles, slip screens, etc. I think he's thrown one slip screen all season and maybe three bubbles.
We use bubble screens as a major part of the offense in high school, and my high school quarterbacks complete about 90% of them. It's a really easy way to get the ball on the perimeter, and even an average HS QB can do it with regularity. It's the simplest throw a QB can make...except maybe a touch pass (a.k.a. jet sweep).
Exactly Thunder
DeleteMilton is being managed. His compl% and INT rate are a result of throwing to the flats, screens and other behind the LoS attempts ... Huepel has almost abandoned his Airraid
*INT for the last three seasons also can be credited to riding pine for the vast majority of 21&22
They're explanations not excuses, and they got both ways. I'll use the same "excuse" when I tell you Donovan Edwards isn't a 7.1 YPC player as I will when I tell you he isn't a 3.5 YPC player.
DeleteIt just DOES NOT MATTER that a player has 3 whatever yards per play in limited numbers of carries. Not when we have better information. Again we can pull samples from Corum or Haskins or Higdon and see the same thing. We can cull the long gainers and see their YPC plummet.
In your world 7 YPC means you are playing great and 3.5 YPC means you are struggling. In my world, the same exact guy can go from 3 YPC to 6 YPC with context (expected outcomes accounting for down distance and opponent, personnel, and playcalls). In my world the same exact guy on the same exact day can run the same exact play twice and do the same exact thing twice and get a completely different outcome.
I think we should not be so flimsy - be a lot more steady in our assessments of players. Stop pretending like we can use our feels to manage workloads to ride the hot hand.
@JE
DeleteYou'll have to remind me JE when I got upset about you dissing Cade. Given your history of projection I'm skeptical it wasn't you who was upset.
As for stats:
Milton's YPC is 11.5 which is 72nd in the country. Not great, not terrible, ahead of a few notable names like Bo Nix, Cade McNamara, Hudson Card, Payton Thorne, Drew Allar.
So this should give you some indication about the validity of JE's assertion that Milton is just sitting there throwing bubble screens and dump offs all day. He isn't. That's a lie. I provided video proof.
Milton's passer efficiency rating is 139. That's not great nor is it bad. Great is JJ's is 188, similar to Hooker's 190 the last 2 years. Dillon Gabriel is at 178 at Oklahoma. Excellent numbers. But there is zero indication that 139 is bad. For context Jake Rudock in '15 was at 141, Speight in '16 was 140, Patterson in '19 was 140, and Cade in '21 was 142.
So Joe is producing at a respectable solid level, without the help that Cade had in '21. Not bad. Not bad at all.
JE will tell you it's the system not the player but here's the thing -- the Harbaugh system with a legit NFL QB is producing the same passer efficiency as a Heupel system with a legit NFL QB.
JE will tell you that Joe is being managed safely just like Cade is being managed safely. In 2021 Cade averaged 23 attempts a game and 184 yards per game. In 2023 Joe is averaging 27 attempts a game and 233 yards per game. So Joe is relied on to do more and he produces more than Cade, with less talent around him. Plus Joe has 4 TDs and 140 yards on the ground while Cade was a non-factor on the ground.
Milton is better than Cade. It's not even close. Anybody equating these two is ignoring the last 2 years, making excuses, or flat out lying.
Milton has 3 INT in over 300 attempts at Tenn. He has started 10 games there.
DeleteIt's very simple: JE is lying.
Cade in his career year of 2021 had 6 INTs in 327 attempts.
In the last 2 years Cade has 4 INTs in 115 attempts while Joe has 3 in 242.
For those of you who can divide, it's clear who is the unreliable turnover machine here and who is the steady game manager. Joe is Cade. Cade is Joe.
You're always upset. Just look at how many posts you make in a day. How much crap you load into them. How your points conflict ...
DeleteMilton is completing mostly short passes. I've shared the post game from Huepel discussing as much. Good receivers are simply fat better than a Corner from Austin Peay or UTSA ... you shared a video? Of one play? In this same thread, you're crying to Thunder about sample size. Not even YOU agree with you. Post a video of Every Snap, then prove I'm lying
I'll wait ⏳
There you go again. Every accusation is projection. Posting is being upset and here you are posting. Lank's biggest fan.
DeleteThe stats tell the story and all you've got is lies you can't prove.
So keep waiting.
Every accusation is a projection? I'm calling you out for arguing small sample size for Edwards23, and then posting a link to ONE Milton pass out of over 300 ... I'm challenging you to share an Every Snap video ... It's not that hard
Deletehttps://youtu.be/3WdX2GLgFa4?si=uU0zVz_jvE_lgiLU
almost exactly as posted under
je93 October 11, 2023 at 3:53
The stats do tell a story: bottom half performer nationally. Watching the games tell us why
more on sample size: Lank says Edwards breaks tackles & is just as good between the tackles as Corum, Haskins, etc. His evidence is a 2021 highlight reel, where Edwards slipped past a couple of MAC arm attempts. In the first drive of this Indiana game's 2Q alone, three times we saw Corum smack the defender, and then keep going. There's a reason Edwards has zero carries halfway through Game7, even with Mullings out ... Watch the games
DeleteLOL - sad strawman JE.
DeleteNobody said he was as good as Corum. The argument was it didn't matter. Which was proven in 2022. You say Edwards is ineffective between the tackles and doesn't get yards after contact. Video shows he does. You want 2021, 2022, 2023? Edwards is good. Sorry.
Milton just managed another win in the SEC after you told him he had to go to D3. Was Milton awesome? No. Did he do enough to win? Yes. Great read to convert a 3rd and 9. Multiple tough runs to move the chains. Threw 1 awful pick, but also dealt with penalties, pressures, and drops all day. Didn't flinch. Won the game. again.
He's a lot better than Cade. Sorry. Unfortunately for you it doesn't take much -- an average QB is a lot better than Cade.
Sample size of career stats - ignored by JE. Only excuses.
DeleteWatch the games? Strawman, plus here's video.
JE wants sample size on...video clips. LOL.
LMGTFY!
Another week, another batch of evidence:
DeleteBen Hall: 6.4 YPC
Danny Hughes: 6.0
Blake Corum: 4.0
J.J. McCarthy: 2.7
Donovan Edwards: 2.0
Edwards had 9 carries - including some in garbage time - and his longest run was 5 yards.
Hughes had *1* carry and his longest run was 6 yards.
We're up to 60 carries on the season now...
CORRECTION: Edwards was at 2.2 (9 carries for 20 yards)
DeleteWhat strawman?
DeleteWouldn't "doesn't matter" mean "just as good?" Otherwise, I could play RB ...
I didn't say Edwards was not effective, I said he wasn't as good between the Tackles; he isn't. I didn't say he forget YAC, I said he has has progressed to getting by arm tackles, but isn't running over or through defenders like we see every week from Corum, or when Mullings (and today, Hall). This is true as well
You're out of your mind Lank. The defense & SpTms saved the game. Milton was managed, and still nearly ruined the game
This was the lowest passing performance by any Huepel team. Right after the TV showed this and the announcers discussed, Milton threw an easy Slant behind his open WR. Huepel then had to run on 3rd & 9. After not converting, they let Joe throw. Frozen like a statue, he was sacked. On another series 3rd Down, with an open WR crossing the field, how was in the same situation as when JJ hit Loveland for a TD. Instead, Joe waits for the WR to get out of bounds, and then throws it. Wasted down. In the RedZone & ready to close the game, Joe throws an ugly MF Int right into a Safety who had not moved, at all. The announcers said what I've been saying, "this cannot happen from a SIXTH year Senior. After that - with the game on the line - the announcers once again asked, "do you trust Milton to throw?" Huepel gave Milton two more chances: the 3rd &9 went behind the LoS that White took for 10, and another Incomplete to the end zone. That's it. The Airraid is dead in Knoxville, thanks to Joe Milton, sixth year senior
3 SEC games, 4INTs. Those are the stats Lank
Still waiting for you to provide more than one play on video. It's easy ⏳
EDWARDS
DeleteNo JE. Doesn't matter isn't the same thing as just as good. I've only explained this to you a dozen times. You can paint the walls blue or you can paint it green -- those are different things -- but if an earthquake hits it doesn't matter what different color they are.
Some things affect meaningful outcomes, some don't. Some differences don't matter, some do. Got it?
Edwards is good between the tackles. He breaks through defenders tackles. Sorry but I'm old enough to remember 11 months ago. But also watching the games this year. And also the fact he was a 5-star RB recruit. Also the 2021 flashes and his role - which included running iso up the middle against OSU as a true freshman with Corum and Haskins available.
Is he Deveon Smith? No. There are different ways to get the job done and Edwards has plenty of success for me to think...sorry, KNOW... that Edwards is a good back. Yes - that includes running between between the tackles. He hasn't "progressed" to breaking through arm tackles or not "falling over grass" - these are things he did in his first week at Michigan.
You just wrote a narrative based on what you saw but when the light was shined on Edwards - he disproved every one of them.
@JE
Deletere:MILTON
If you watched the game you'd know what happened. Unless you are lying to yourself. Managing the game vs getting managed is two sides of the same coin. Joe is Cade. Cade is Joe.
It's funny now you want to talk about volume and last week you want to talk about QBR. Milton's QBR this week was 64, playing against a top 20 defense (maybe top 10). What does 64 QBR mean? Pretty good. Not great. Not terrible. Pretty good. Better than most. Not elite Hooker/McCarthy/Luck level but not bad.
That's how Milton played. He played within himself. Acknowledged the INT was bad - but Milton immediately took responsibility for it and didn't let it phase him. Nor the penalties on the OL (I don't know how many there where but would guess a half dozen) nor the WR drops (3 or 4 including an easy TD). Milton's passing wasn't great yesterday so he relied on reads, ran effectively.
Interesting note that Heupel chose to have Milton throw late in the game in red zone when he could have bled clock instead. The throw was incomplete thanks to excellent coverage but the ball was right on target and it could have worked. Milton was managed and Milton managed, but his coach also trusted him. I definitely expected run.
Seems like you watched the game which included shots downfield but chose to ignore that. You see what you want to see regardless of the facts. And then you lie about it.
So let's talk stats:
3644 career yards for Cade vs 4339 for Joe
27 TDs for Cade vs 36 for Joe
That's volume, here's efficiency
61% vs 59% - small edge to Cade
10 INTs for each (in 513 attempts for Cade and 478 for Joe) - small edge to Cade
7.2 YPA for Cade 8.0 for Joe - big edge to Joe
Passer rating 133 for Cade 141 for Joe - edge to Joe
Joe's numbers keep going up and Cade's keep going down. It's 2023 but I'm sure you still want to talk about Rutgers in 2020.
@Thunder
DeleteSomeone once said "I. Do. Not. Care." I've told you how I feel about sample small sample sizes. I know what I know about Edwards and your single game YPC stats will not change my mind. Sorry.
Let me just ask you a question that ignores Edwards.
Given Corum produced 4.0 ypc and Ben Hall produced 6.4 YPC to you think Corum is struggling and we should see Hall take away some of his carries?
Curious JE if in watching the Tenn game you came away impressed with their OL's pass blocking or the WR's standout pass catching. Just wondering how far the lies go - if they are limited to Milton or extend to the whole team. Did you see stacked boxes with A&M's defense unworried about pass threat like we have seen many times against the Michigan offense?
DeleteAgain, Joe was not great. He did good stuff, he did bad stuff. Good plays and bad plays. The air raid did not produce big plays in part because TAMU is a very good defense and in part because their talent isn't what it was. That's not just Milton being in for Hooker, though certainly that's part of it.
Deletehttps://247sports.com/college/tennessee/article/tennessee-football-josh-heupel-discusses-joe-miltons-critical-error-off-day-for-vols-passing-game-218173455/
This was discussed during the game - the Vols lost 4 offensive starters from last years team to the first 3 rounds of the NFL draft. The best returning WR is out for the year.
They are fortunate the run game is strong because Milton is not a good enough QB to carry an offense against defenses like TAMU and Alabama. His deep throws are gorgeous and generally on target but he doesn't have Hyatt, Tillman, and McCoy to reel them in anymore. My money will be on Alabama next week.
If Tenn wants to win that game they'll need Milton to manage even better than he's managing now and avoid any INTs like the bad one he had this week. The margin for error won't be there on the road.
These excuses are funny
Delete@Lank 1141:
earthquake? WTF? You're reeeaching 😂
When Edwards tried staying in for a TD, Harbaugh wasted a Timeout. The game was not yet out of reach, and his trust & confidence was in Corum ... Edwards IS a good RB, but not on the same level as the others between the Tackles
You've had plenty of time, but the best you can do on tackle breaking is a highlight video that shows a couple of MAC arm attempts, blasting through open holes, or going down as he gets hit. We see bruising carries from others, even yesterday
@Lank1159
I did watch the game ... in the first half, Joe ran out of bounds short of the sticks on a free play, they then failed to convert on 3rd down. Five straight trips to the RZ, one TD. One of Joe's "good" completions was when a pass ricocheted off the chest of one player and into the hands of another! His lone TD came after three straight RZ incompletions. After the INT, Tennessee went almost 8min of game time without letting Joe pass again (a screen behind the LoS)
We can talk QBR. The New Mexico QB had a 75.6 QBR against aTm (11pts higher than Joe), and his coach didn't restrict him from throwing ... but hey, the Louisiana Monroe QB got a 63.8, so maaaybe Joe did better than that blue chipper?
Of course Joe took responsibility for the INT ... he threw it directly at a flat footed Safety 😂 ... who else could be blamed?
@Lank 1206
No, I don't think the Tennessee OL is very good at all, but that's not why Joe throws behind, far ahead or like a bullet at open targets. It's not why he continues to throw some of the ugliest INTs on TV. Neither was the thumb. He just sucks. His receivers are good. Squirrel White will get to the League. They take his screens and turn them into big yards. Watch the games
The excuses keep coming, but it's obvious Joe sucked in 2020, and sucks now
*another interesting announcement during the game: last year Tennessee was near the top of the nation in explosive plays (+20); this year, they are at the bottom of the SEC (dang Vanderbilt)
@JE
DeleteIt's not a complicated concept. I don't get why you struggle with some differences being relevant and others not. I'll give you another example -- it does not matter what day of the week someone was born on. But the days of the week are different. I can't help you anymore.
Edwards is not on the same level as the some others between the tackles? Way to move the goalposts. I agree. Others are better at it. He is good at it.
Edwards has been successful at it in 2021, 2022, and 2023. The number of times was limited in 2021 because he was 3rd string and there are things he is better at, but they were there. I've linked and described them. The number of times in 2022 was plentiful because he got 140 carries and started 3 games as the primary back. That's definitive proof. The number of times in 2023 has been more limited than 2022, like his carries. But if you want a specific example when he again does what you said he can't do and pushes the pile for TD on 3rd and goal. That was...yesterday.
I'm not going to repost highlight videos again. The 2021 video just shows you that you've been wrong for 3 years in a row about Edwards. You were wrong in 2021 and dismissed the early season stuff as MAC and claimed he fell over blades of grass -- the coaches ran him ISO up the middle against OSU. You were wrong in 2022 when you said we'd miss Haskins and that Edwards wasn't HARBALL and we stomped OSU, Purdue, and put up a big offensive day against TCU with a RB that supposedly isn't HARBALL. Now he can't run between the tackles again because mr. boom/bust isn't booming. Wrong again.
You want video proof watch OSU 2022, Purdue 2022, and TCU 2022. There's your RB that can run between the tackles. There's your RB who doesn't fall down over a blade of grass. If you can't see that's the same guy running yesterday that's on you.
@JE
Deletere: Milton again
I think you are going to see what you want to see. Yes one of his passes ricocheted and was caught...it was a throw that went off one of his receivers hands and should have been caught. In your eyes that is luck. In my eyes that's further evidence that his receivers are not helping him.
Joe sucks...but somehow gets recruited by Hueple, starts at Tennessee, wins an Orange Bowl MVP, produces solid QBR and pass efficiency numbers, rarely throws INTs, and is the starter on an SEC team ranked in the top 20.
So, I dunno, seems like he maybe doesn't suck nearly as bad as you say.
You've already said that you are sticking to your guns that he should have gone to D3 even though he's starting at Tennessee, so again - you're going to see what you want to see.
@JE
DeleteYou can compare to Hooker all you want, all day and all night. Nobody said he was as good as Hooker...except maybe you. When Milton beat Hooker out of camp in 2021 I expressed surprise while you said Hooker sucked. Of course you were wrong about that too. Joe should probably take the accusation as a complement.
@JE
DeleteNow list the QBRs for KJ Jefferson and Peyton Thorne against the TAMU defense. I know you looked them up in your attempt to cherry pick.
Those are Joe Milton's peers no matter how much you want him to be at D3.
Holy crap this is getting funny
Delete@Lank 3:30
I went w/the two most cupcake teams. That highly touted aTm defense had more trouble w/NMSt at Home than SIXTH year senior Milton at Neyland Stadium. Sorry, but the truth has to hurt
@Lank 3:25
You're bringing up Hooker again? Let's be real: the only reason he gets tossed into this is because you want to hang your argument on "Joe beat Hendon" ... he did, in practice, without contact & no pressure. And, I didn't say hooker sucked, I said he wasn't very good. 9:5 TD-INT, 69QBR and fighting for his job. The truth hurts
@Lank 3:06 & 3:19
Almost a concession. You post a highlight and I note that their was no broken tackles. You post a Joe pass, and I ask for some Every Snap videos, sharing one that backs my point
You cannot backup what you claim. Not one clip of Edwards barreling an opposing defender like we see by the other M RBs; no consistency out of Joe. Take the L. You tried!
Watching you dodge doesn't hurt me at all.
DeleteJoe Milton is starting QB on a top 20 team in the SEC with an above average QBR and is projected as an NFL draft pick. Cade has sucked and gotten injured 2 years in a row and plays for one of the worst offenses in the country.
Donovan Edwards is also projected as an NFL draft pick, averages 5.8 YPC as a RB at Michigan, and filled in perfectly when Blake Corum got hurt, after earning a meaningful role as a freshman. He's an excellent RB, as everyone expected and continues to expect.
I cannot backup what I claim, except I just did. Every accusation is projection.
I'm dodging? I've addressed everything you have attempted to put out there. I ask for Every Snap videos, and you avoid or change the subject. THAT is dodging. My guess - based on this topic & the Edwards discussion - is that you have no idea what you're looking at when watching a game or even highlights
DeleteYes, Joe Milton is starting for an SEC team. Who TF denies that? You want a peer comparison?
Of SEC QBs, he has the least +20yd throws. Uncle Rico lacks accuracy downfield, in year6
He's #10 in QBR in the conference, and bottom half nationally
Only Peyton Thorne is worse in YPA
That's in conference. As a Huepel QB, he's also historically bad. No Huepel QB has thrown for 38yds in a half
Yesterday was the first time a Huepel offense won a game while scoring less than 30
Tennessee would be smart to make Milton run more. Every facet of the team is playing between good & very good: SpTms, Defense, run game ... WRs are getting yards after catch ... all that's missing is QB play. They're not winning because of the QB, they're winning despite an awful SIXTH year Milton
That's the whole story Lank, not just the parts you like
I'll spell it out for you. You can google every snap videos for yourself. As you've provided no evidence of Edwards boom/bust nature relative to anyone else, no evidence that Milton throws shorter/easier passes than anyone else, no evidence that Edwards is ineffective between the tackles, and on and on and on. You watch and have our opinions and, to you, they are facts. But you never back them up. So when I provide a video that disproves what you say directly - you dodge and claim sample size. And so you request a larger sample I'll just go ahead and let you find that yourself. You're just going to see what you want to see anyway.
DeleteThe facts are above. They prove you wrong. When directly challenged, you dodge and move the goalposts.
Example for Edwards. In 2021 he fell over grass and couldn't run between the tackles. In fact, he had done so, effectively in the non-conference, he was just a 3rd string back. He tripped once midseason and you saw what you wanted to see. Funny thing though, when elevated to second string he was successful. No tripping over grass whatsoever.
Then you moved the goalposts to running between the tackles. Then he did that too. In fact, the coaches ran him ISO up the gut against OSU. The coaches proved you wrong. Not me, the coaches. It's a fact. Look it up - you don't need an every snap video LOL.
Then in 2022 you said blah blah blah Harball and that this guy and that guy were not Haskins. But Corum gained 5 pounds and you changed your story but still thought Edwards couldn't get it done but lo, he did. Every narrative you have was busted wide apart against OSU, Purdue, and TCU. Game over. You were wrong. Dead wrong. 100% wrong.
Then it's - sure he doesn't fall over grass, breaks tackles, and he's highly effective even when his greatest strength (pass catching) is neutered by a broken hand -- all he needed was snaps. And every time he gets them he proves you wrong.
So 2023 comes and it's time to move the goalposts again. He's a boom/bust back! Where's the boom JE? Where's the bust? Nowhere is where. Wrong again.
2023 comes and he doesn't break tackles still - except when he does.
OK he breaks tackles but they are arm tackles - he doesn't push the pile. Boom, short yardage TD converted. The announcers literally talk about pushing the pile. But you give the OL credit (as if the OL doesn't always get the credit).
Now Edwards has to run THROUGH people for some reason. Think about how far we've come in the narrative here JE. Your 2021 goalpost was falling over grass and your 2023 narrative is running through people. Barry Sander and Mike Hart didn't run through people either, and rarely does Corum, yet you want Edwards to be Ron Dayne for some reason. Edwards is far better than Ron Dayne.
So let's move the goalposts again. Edwards modest production is a PROBLEM now. Is it? 2023 back to being a backup and back to producing like he did in 2022 as a backup. a.k.a. Not a problem. He wanted more, of course he did! He got a taste of the limelight but some of us (note: not you) said to temper expectations because while Donovan can produce like Blake (as he proved) he is not as good as Blake (some differences don't matter).
It's not a problem and Edwards says it's not a problem on a podcast. But you, dodging over to another thread, hear a problem.
All one can do is shrug.
Edwards already proved your takes wrong. He can die in a car crash tomorrow and you were already wrong about Edwards. That's that.
CASE CLOSED. You were wrong. You lost. Get over it.
Now time for "the whole story" on Milton, since you don't like the career stats.
DeleteLet's rewind to 2019 when you said Milton would transfer if Patterson stayed healthy. Patterson did, Milton stayed, and he won the job beating out Cade (same age) and Dylan (older). Milton and Cade stunk in 2020, because look at the team around them, but the stench on Milton was worse. He played hurt and "was not set up for success" per those in the program. Sorry you don't like that inconvenient truth, but you had already decided your version back in 2019. Cade won the job and seemed to deserve to, but it wasn't as clearcut as you remember because you saw what you wanted to see. Then you predicted he needed to go to D3 to get a starting job and reps. YOU WERE ALREADY PROVEN WRONG.
Just like with Edwards, you were wrong. And instead of admitting you were dead wrong you dodge and move the goalposts.
Another inconvenient truth for you. Joe can be the worst QB in the SEC and you are already wrong. Heupel recruited him and he has started games in 2021, 2022, and 2023. He won an Orange Bowl MVP. Like, the number of times your take on Milton was wrong is uncountable, but whatever the tally is, it goes up EVERY WEEK.
But go ahead and move the goalposts, cherry pick and nit pick and argue with the strawman telling you Joe Milton is as good as Hendon Hooker or Dillon Gabriel or JJ McCarthy or anyone else. Dodge and make excuses for richboy Cade all day. Let's compare Cade to Petras and Joe to Hooker. This is your actual take.
That's a white flag buddy. Sorry if you can't see it.
Again see the facts above. Joe Milton is starting on a top 20 team and won an Orange Bowl MVP over Clemson. He already proved you wrong.
If you want to argue with whoever told you Joe Milton would be one of the best starting QBs in the SEC -- have that argument. That wasn't me.
I did say I wouldn't be surprised to see him get drafted in the NFL a couple years ago and it looks like that is still in play. You said he needed to go to D3 to win a job.
CASE CLOSED. You were wrong. You lost. Get over it.
I don't think Tenn will finish in the top 20. I don't think Milton will get drafted in the first 4 rounds. I don't think he'll be one of the best QBs in the SEC. I think they lose to Alabama and Georgia and likely somebody else and finish 8-4 or 9-3 or somewhere in that ballpark.
DeleteIt would surprise me, but not shock me, if Joe was pulled for a 5-star QB at some point when Tenn starts looking to the future.
None of the above contradicts anything I've said in the past.
From what I've seen of Joe he is a capable solid QB who needs to manage and be managed to win at an elite program. But he's got good leadership and as a 23 year old he seems to have become a guy who limits mistakes and plays within himself. He doesn't pass well on the move, but he's a physical force in the run game and he throws a very good deep ball and executes well on slants and screens. He's making presnap reads and avoiding mistakes and being praised for leadership -- which is all the good stuff that Cade was supposedly doing at a more favorable environment at Michigan. Joe is Cade. 23 version to 21 version. Meanwhile Cade is inaccurate, inconsistent, injured, and has to carry a bad team and isn't up for the job. Cade is Joe. 23 version to 21.
So have fun nitpicking every Joe game and hate-watching Tenn. I'm rooting for the guy. Your Joe takes are already all wrong, it's just a matter of how obvious it is. 95/100 or 110/100?
@Lank 1150
Delete-1, 2, -1, 4, 5 (Halftime)
0, 4, 2, 2, 7, 12, 9, 6, 1, 3, 0, -1, 3, -1, 75TD, 6, 1, 85TD, 2
that's the Don v ohio last year ... 2 BOOMS, mostly busts
Still not sure how I've moved the target. Year1: "trips over grass," is a football saying ... even your highlight video showed no more that three (arm) tackles broken all season
I didn't move the goalpost on between the Tackles running; it's still not much his thing. Harbaugh wasted a timeout to replace him with someone who is
In 2023, there's been no. Oom. that's why it's a slow start. That's why Edwards was discouraged, worried, and went to prayer. It was a low point for him, and his first TD resulted in team celebration that looked like a 5th string walk on got a charity score ... you're the only one who doesn't see it
I never said Edwards has to run through defenders. Strawman. I also never said he needed to be Ron Dayne. I have called him an elite athlete, who needs to be schemed as such. He'd probably be Heisman level if he were ... Case isn't closed; we have 5-8 games left
@Lank 1155
I've seen the games, and have described what happens. I tried telling you what was happening beyond the stats, but you didn't believe me. You then posted ONE play. I challenged you to go through all the plays, but you already know. That's not me moving the target or dodging; who's projecting Lank?
Tennessee is 89 in the nation in Pass YPG, after sitting near or at the top under Huepel every other year. Only 11 pass plays of 20yds+, which is lower than all but give teams in the nation ... (the Vols led the nation last year in pass plays of 30-plus, 40-plus and 60-plus yards. Joe ruined the Airraid. It's not his thumb. It's not aTm. Isolate all possible variables, and the root cause for a crappy pass game is Milton
I have not moved the goal posts. I said the same when he was in Ann Arbor. I predicted he'd transfer. I suggested FCS because he needed lots of reps, not sitting on a bench in Knoxville. Now he's thrust into the SEC (on a down year), and only an ill-prepared TrFR backup is keeping Joe in the lineup
*my favorite part about CASE CLOSED is that you came back 10min later trying to cover your butt in case Joe is benched 😅😂🤣 ... not even YOU believe you
I'm not going to rehash it for you yet again. You said he wasn't a good RB between the tackles, he lacked balance, and on and on. He proves you wrong again and again. 2021? check. 2022? check 2023? coming soon!
DeleteStill haven't produced any comparison to any other backs to indicate boom bust. List out Blake Corum's carries the week before against Illinois. Was it any less boom bust? I showed you the success rate from 2022. It was strong, better than most primary RBs. That tells you he didn't bust very often. Nothing unusual at all. In fact, better than most. No bust. Plenty of boom though. This year - no boom.
Here's an idea. Google "null hypothesis"
----------------------------------
I've watched Joe and you are seeing what you want to see. Your claims are lies. The stats prove it. Watching the games proves it. A QB who sucks? No I don't think so. But here you are comparing to Hooker again. LOL.
Yards per game tells you a story about long passes? Try again. I already gave you the yards per completion stat. You have no proof that he isn't attempting long passes or in fact any evidence at all about depth of throws as compared to other QBs.
Root cause of fewer long passes completed in 2023 is Joe? Interesting -- maybe explain why Joe had passes of 50, 61, 64, 58, 64, 57, and 53 last year. The ONLY game he played the entire season last year without a pass over 50 yards was Alabama - where he attempted 1 pass. LOL. Splain that!
This year, he has 1 pass over 50 yards in the entire season. Hmmm, maybe losing an all SEC OT, WR, another high NFL pick WR, and ANOTHER WR on top of that might be a root cause. But nah - everything bad is Joe's fault and everything good is despite Joe.
Even Vol fans that want Joe benched know the offenses struggles (still a top 20 offense per S&P and FEI) are a team issue.
Flip your perspective. Joe is leading a top 20 team and a top 20 offense. 56 QBR
You predicted Joe would transfer in 2019 if Patterson stayed healthy all year. Joe didn't transfer until after the 2020 season, after being named starter, after Patterson left, after McCaffrey left, after Nico, Ambry, etc. bowed out. Joe stayed through and graduated. You didn't think he had the patience but he wait at Michigan and then he waited at Tennessee.
After he got hurt and Hooker took over for good you thought it was over for him. Now you cry YEAR 6 as if that in and of itself doesn't prove you wrong. Joe is patient. Joe is resilient. Some want to dodge dodge dodge. Seek out the easy path. Not Joe.
wrong again and again. Keep dodging forever. Watch this video while you move.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jc23V9csWQ
Lmao, CASE CLOSED. I'M NOT GOING TO REHASH ...
Deletenot even YOU agree with you Lank. How's that for rent free?
Running between the Tackles is not Donovan Edwards thing. Nor is breaking tackles. He needs a big hole. You can't produce evidence others, and for weeks have asked for boom bust data. I gave you the best game of his UM career. Now you want Corum comparison. Okay, do it. You're moving the target Lank. Projecting
Case closed is funny ...
Maybe you have watched Joe, but you're demonstrating that you have no idea what you're looking at. Another highlight video? For Mr Data? 23%. That's Joe's completion percentage past 20yds. It's less than half of last year. That's only 8 passes over 20, while Jalen Milroe has 28. A SIXTH year senior v a first year starter. JOE KILLED THE AIRRAID in Knoxville.
YPC says nothing if. Squirrel White is taking passes behind the LoS & running for an extra 17 Lank. Learn to watch the games, or the data is misinterpreted
"But you're comparing him to Hooker" I've shown comparison to other SEC (bottom dweller), the nation, and I've shown QBs who played the same defense (incl NMSt & ULM). I've shown you his stats against FCS Austin Peay. I've shown you his ugly@ss INT v Florida, the horrible INT v SCar. The who TF was that to INT against aTm. 4picks, all on attempts over 20
You don't want comparison, you want concession. So you resort to lies again. You conflate my takes on Edwards with others, and make up new arguments against Joe. I didn't predict he'd transfer, I said IF SOMEONE transfers, it'd be Joe. He did and good riddance
Go close your case Lank, and Go Blue
Watch the TCU game. Watch the Purdue game. Take one second, just one, and try to not go in with your locked in ideas. Think through if a 5-star RB and projected top NFL pick can't run between the tackles. Think through if the guy the coaches keeping giving the ball to to run between the tackles, whenever Blake Corum isn't a readily available alternative, and imagine if what you are saying makes a lick of sense.
DeleteYou are right - you have shown every comparison that paints Joe in a poor light - and ignored every one that paints him in a favorable light. The cool thing about the aggregate stats is that they cover both. You ignore those.
6th year 6th year 6th year?
Orange Bowl Orange Bowl Orange Bowl
Starter Starter Starter
Top 20 Top 20 Top 20
NFL NFL NFL
I give you data - you ask for video. I give you video - you ask for data. Surprises = 0.
You can lie and dodge all you want but unless Thunder deletes the archives the receipts are here:
https://touch-the-banner.com/2019-season-countdown-55-joe-milton/
"I can see Milton transferring, especially if Shea finishes the season healthy again"
He did and Milton stuck around to win the job in 2020.
"I think he needs a lot of time & reps, but lacks the patience to ever see it through"
He saw it through at Michigan to it's logical conclusion and graduation day. Now he is seeing it through at Tennessee.
Wrong, wrong, wrong, and wrong again some more.
Some people don't see every challenge and every speed bump as a reason to run away to something easier.
Stay you and Go Blue!
for someone who declared I'm wrong & Case Closed, you sure seem unconvinced ... not even YOU believe you 😂
DeleteI have watched the TCU & Purdont games, and I actually know what I'm seeing ... by the way, it takes more than ONE SECOND Lank 😉
Anyway, you're strawmanning again: I didn't say Edwards cannot run between the Tackles, I said it's not his thing, not his specialty. He needs a big hole. Even in the Indiana thread, your removing credit from Edwards and giving it to the OL ... not even YOU agree with you
I'm not ignoring anything about Joe. He's in his SIXTH year. We live in unprecedented times. A fifth year is almost always the last shot, but Joe gets another. He's making the same bonehead mistakes he did in 2018(!) ...
Who cares about the Orange Bowl? Not Clemson, not anyone. It's playoffs or nothing in modern times
He's been the starter 3x, yes. Wins the job in practice with no contact or pressure, and open WRs. Looks like crap when there's an opponent, even if it is FCS Austin Peay
Top that of rankings in Ground game, Defense & SpTms. Liability in Pass game, which he is key to - success or failure
What about NFL? Remember in summer when you lauded his preseason Heisman talk? It goes away as soon as the games begin, because he sucks
You're posting my comments where I gave specific scenarios that could lead to a transfer. Context matters, but misleading is your thing
Guess what? I was right. As soon as he got benched, he ran away
Milton did and DOES need reps. He's literally making the same bad decisions in year SIX that he did when he arrived to college. As Harbaugh says, "you get better at football by playing football," not sitting on a bench in Knoxville. So again , I was right
Case Closed?
I assumed you'd latch on to agreeing with you, but didn't care. You're not one for nuance.
DeleteAgain 7.1 YPC isn't how well Edwards performed (because of stuff like the OSU run) and 3.3 YPC isn't how badly Edwards is performing now. These aren't contradictory observations. It's the same thing. You are hung up on outcomes equating with performance because you understand neither football nor math.
You actually did say, repeatedly, that Edwards wasn't good between the tackles. The was the foundation of a lot of our argument in 2021. That and falling over grass. It was one (of many) times you moved the needle. After Maryland - your story moved from falling over grass to the coaches only trust him to catch passes because he's bad between the tackles. Of course he ran it against OSU and I laughed at you.
6th year again? wow JE. Yes. 6th year. Patient AF. You were wrong.
Joe has actually been a starter 4 times. 1 at Michigan, 3 at Clemson.
Austin Peay again? LOL. cool. Thoughts on UTSA or UVA?
Actually forget I asked.
Nothing misleading about the quote. It was the first comment in the thread. Your specific scenario was Patterson staying healthy -- which he was. Wrong.
You were wrong. Only person these lies work on is you.
Milton got and gets reps. What world do you live in? Oh yeah, the world where winning Orange Bowl MVP doesn't count.
I don't know if you know this or not but football players practice during the week. That's playing football too. Even if it wasn't again - inconvenient fact for you - Milton is the starter on a top 20 team and won the orange bowl finishing 2022 season 2-0 as starter replacing Hooker.
You were right about...nothing whatsoever.
Case closed.
Case closed again.
Hold both the Edwards L and the Milton L up high in the sky.
Hold both those Ls up nice and high.
DeleteSo you're saying it's not the stats AND it's not the game film ... it's your feelings 😂
DeleteYou're lying Lank, but that's not new
Yes, SIXTH year. Still incapable of a postsnap read. Still throwing the ugliest INTs
No one cares about the 2022 Orange Bowl, not even Clemson. Proof: without your search engine, who won MVP of the other non-playoff bowls? No one knows it cares anymore
Reps in practice are NOT the same as game tries Lank. Anytime who's ever played sports knows this; but not you
Ask for stats, you give yards per completion & INT rate. I explain the short passes (screens/behind LoS). You deny, so I ask for video. You send a ONE PLAY clip, so I send EVERY SNAP. You're living in denial, clinging to a narrative unsupported by all the stats & all the tape
Your boy sucks
still my favorite: after CASE CLOSED, you have another post ... not even YOU believe you 🤣
It's the stats, it's the facts, it's the context, it's watching the games, it's playing the game, it's coaching the game. On the field. Off the field. In EVERY POSSIBLE WAY Milton has proved you wrong JE. And he continues to every week.
DeleteThis was CASE CLOSED in 2021 BTW. But you want to keep the Ls coming. You want us to know you are a religious guy so maybe that includes self-flagellation. No judgement zone on that. But the takes well...
All you have is fake insults. I have the receipts. Enjoy fantasy land.
But it's not in the stats. Milton is in the bottom half of the nation, and bottom of his conference
DeleteIt's not in the context; Huepel has to limit his Airraid because Joe sucks
It's not in playing the game, which is why you have to use highlight videos, while I use EVERY SNAP
If the case were closed, why do you keep repeating yourself? Why do you lie? Why do you deny context & avoid the video? Why keep it up?
I missed the UTSA reference in your earlier essay, but okay, let's do that:
SIXTH YEAR Joe's QBR against this G5 defense was 84, highest of the year
His opponent - a G5 FRESHMAN - traveled to Knoxville, faced a formidable defense, and finished with ... 84
What about the tape?
Run game carries the offense. Huepel limited the pass to mostly behind the LoS & short screens ... the WRs caught the ball & blessed Joe's stats through YAC. Just a quick look, but it's something like 2 of 13 on attempts past 20yds (15%😂)
the case is not closed until the end of the season, but what we have so far is atrocious Lank. Statistically, with context, on the field of play, you name it
This is fun. Keep it coming!
https://youtu.be/gRuxQNH7W6A?si=wTnWBO-SDB5z3WSm
"Milton is in the bottom half of the nation, and bottom of his conference"
DeleteSo what do you think this disproves? Genuinely curious.
Did somebody make a prediction to you that Joe Milton would finish with above average stats in the SEC?
No - what happened was you said that Milton sucks, that Milton sucks as bad (or worse) than McNamara, that Milton needs to go to D3 if he wants reps.
Reminder that those things are all disproven with stats, facts, observation, and watching games. So what do you do....watch out goalposts, JE is able to hold his L's and move you at the same time. It's the most athletic thing he's ever done in his life.
You should maybe look up what QBR means since you like to quote it.
YEAR 6 - Yes, here we are in year 6 with Joe getting his first full season of starting (but 4th in total). That disproves two of your points. 1 Joe is patient. 2 Joe is/was getting reps. So every time you say YEAR 6 and think it proves your point just know it's you holding up your Ls.
CASE CLOSED!
There is nothing the rest of the season to change the fact that everything you said about Joe was wrong. He started for Harbaugh. he graduated from michigan. He started for Heupel. He won an Orange Bowl MVP.
He can get drafted in Round 7, Round 1, or UDFA and you are wrong. He can get benched in favor of a 5-star freshman and you are wrong. You can move goalposts and hate-watch to your hearts content and you will still be wrong wrong and wrong again.
CASE CLOSED
I'm wondering what you are waiting for season's end to disprove. Which strawman statement are you arguing with in your imagination?
I've got the quotes to prove you wrong. JE. I kept the receipts.
DeleteWhat do you have? The lies you tell yourself.
Bottom of the nation - in an Airraid & as a SIXTH year - is very bad. He sucks
DeleteBottom of SEC is the peer comparison you asked for. He sucks
The only thing disproven are your points. I don't move the goalposts, I respond to your crap. With stats & tape
CASE CLOSED (two more times) ... each followed by a response. Not even YOU believe you 😂
LOL. Nice dodge. As usual.
DeleteWho are you arguing with? Nooooooooobody.
What point are you disproving? Nooooobdy's.
What receipts do you have? Empty pockets!
Every accusation is a projection. I'd like to think you know that your are clowning yourself but... well, you just don't have it.
The Milton case was closed in 2021. You lost. You appeal though again again, citing [moves goalpost]. The nonsense is dismissed too but you keep on fighting, desparate to dodge the truth.
Hold your L's buddy. you haven't proven me wrong ONE TIME. Not once. Even when I'm wrong (e.g., Sainristil) I'll beat you to the punch. You're too slow - in every sense. But the guys at over 40 Rec Ball probably don't tell you that do they?
What did I lie about? You're lying again
DeleteYou provide stats, I provide comparisons (national & conference)
You provide a single highlight throw, I provide Every Snap
You bring up UTSA 🤣, and. I compare to their QB
You make excuses about thumbs, I point out the exact same trends from his first outing to his SIXTH year
All receipts above. Crying that I am wrong doesn't make you right. Every. Single. Point. Every attempt at misleading, I expose. Easy
*you forgot to say Case Closed again ... it's my favorite 🙄
Stat of the day. Joe Milton's QBR ranks 76 out of 135 in 2023. Right around the middle, which makes sense since his QBR of 56.5 already tells you that by definition he is right around the middle of the pack. Other QBs ranked similarly include Hudson Card, Payton Thorne, Cade Klubnik, Tyler Shough and Tanner Mordecai. In other words unexceptional but solid quality starting quarterbacks for power conference teams.
DeleteCASE CLOSED
"I provide comparisons (national & conference)"
DeleteComparisons to what? To prove what point? Arguing with what?
You have no receipts. Show one. Just one. One statement of mine you can say I'm wrong about and prove with data. I don't mean cherry pick one game or one play either. Bring the data. Expose me!
I've been wrong plenty so you can do it surely. Well...someone can. Not sure about you. Expose it baby!
Here's an example of getting exposed with receipts:
je93October 19, 2023 at 9:51 AM
Bottom of the nation - in an Airraid & as a SIXTH year - is very bad. He sucks
Stats that prove this wrong:
LankOctober 20, 2023 at 10:43 AM
Stat of the day. Joe Milton's QBR....
#CASE CLOSED
You present yourself as a numbers guy. I correctly point out that you mislead & lie. EIGHT times on this thread alone I wrote that Milton was bottom half of the nation in QBR (bottom of SEC). This is 100% fact ... You take the ONE time "half" is missing, and make that the vote or your new point. You're a liar Lank. You love to argue, aren't very good at it, so you start with the lies
DeleteI have proven you wrong through this entire thread:
- you disagree that Joe sucks (fair)
- you point to yards, INT ratio & top20 team as evidence
I reply that
- I double down on how awful he is, stating
- the yards are coming from WR YAC, that the passes are behind the LoS, open quick slants and rare deep passes. The INT rate is misleading, since Huepel has to call the short game around Joe's bad play, and that the Vols are top20 bc of their ground game, Defense & SpTms. I also point out that - despite Huepel's efforts - Joe has 4INTs in 3 SEC games
You post a ONE throw video, as evidence that Joe can hit the deep ball
I challenge you to post an every snap video, and reveal his awful downfield compl%, comparing it to last year Tenn and +20yd compl% nationally
You challenge me to compare to his conference
I do, and Joe is at the bottom
You deny the stats & video, and post a highlight reel, and point out Joe's UTSA QBR
I post another every snap video (UTSA), showing how even against G5, Huepel cannot trust SIXTH year joe. 15% compl% +20yds ... and the FR QB from that G5 powerhouse went to Neyland Stadium and matched Joe's season high QBR
You dodge, but the fact is im slapping your silly assertions around
You say I love the goalposts, but I'm disproving your points with stats & complete video
Joe sucks. Bottom half of the nation in QBR, YPA & Gross Passing Yards; bottom of SEC in nearly every QB metric known ... as a SIXTH YEAR quarterback
Joe is one of the worst QBs I've ever seen play. For SIX years on TWO teams, he's had to have games called around him, being benched twice. You disagree, and that's fair ... but it's the evidence where I prove you wrong, throughout this thread. For every challenge, I easily overwhelm your point. I make a challenge, and you move the goalposts or dodge ... it's all here Lank
lmao, "case closed" ... going on a dozen times
When you say Milton is in the bottom half of the SEC in QBR, who are you arguing with? What point do you prove? What statement, that I made, are you correcting?
DeleteThat's the question JE. Because if you can't answer it, I will answer it for you. You are arguing with a strawman. You are moving the goalposts. You are lying to yourself.
Not once did I say Joe Milton will be an above average SEC starter.
So - what lies have I told exactly. What stats do I deny. That's the challenge I'm giving you JE. You're a competitor baby. Expose me! Give a quote. Give a stat that disproves it. It should NOT be hard.
But you're dodging it! Talking about your demand to see every snap videos for some reason. That's a dodge. But just because I'm toying with a little mouse, here's an every snap video for you. Enjoy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLcFPRFNMSc&ab_channel=volfreak
Again, you have not disproven a single point I've made yet. You don't have a single quote! In a thread of I don't know how many hundreds if sentences you can't find ONE!
One quote. One data point to disprove it. C'mon man. You can do this! I don't have much respect for you but this should be easy for somebody with the volume of posts I have. It's like proving Colin Cowherd wrong for something he said on the radio once. By sheer volume alone it should be shooting fish in a barrell.
But no. Here is what you did come up with, sans quotes:
- I "disagree that Joe sucks"
- I "point to yards, INT ratio & top20 team as evidence"
Yes, the first is based on the data YOU shared. You prove yourself wrong showing above average QBR and Joe's middle of the pack national rankings. I repeat them back to you because they prove you wrong. LOL.
And even that you admit is "fair". Which yeah, obviously it's fair to say a guy with average QBR and average rank is probably average.
The second is just facts. Are you arguing with the facts?
Hmmm....I guess you are. Best of luck in the battle against reality. That's who you are arguing with. It seems you agree it's not me.
" For every challenge, I easily overwhelm your point. I make a challenge, and you move the goalposts or dodge"
DeleteEvery time! LOL
Every accusation is an admission. Every insult is projection.
Like when Mike Sainristil said they expected MSU to at least try a trick play. They didn't even have that in them.
DeleteEven I thought you'd be able to find 1 quote JE. I hate to say it's disappointing because the bar is so low but...I'm disappointed.
"You take the ONE time "half" is missing, and make that the vote or your new point. You're a liar Lank. You love to argue, aren't very good at it, so you start with the lies'
DeleteJE - no lies told again
See: LankOctober 20, 2023 at 10:43 AM
also 10/15 and multiple other posts.
I've talked about QBR and Passer Rating and everything else. I give the stats repeatedly. They prove you wrong. He's not at the bottom. He's middling. Average Joe -- they even had a "not your average Joe" graphic on TV yesterday at halftime when he played better than that for a half.
Like watching the games, it's not the act itself it's how you interpret it. You are watching the games wrong and interpreting it wrong. You don't know what Harball is. Dude has been coaching for like 20 years and you still think all he wants to do is power run up the gut with Toby Gerhart or Khalil Hill. You don't know what a bad QB looks like (even though you've watched John OKorn and Brandon Peters). You think a 1st round NFL pick RB isn't good at running between the tackles.
You are wrong at every turn. Which is fine accept you are so afraid of losing you won't just admit it and move on. So here you are 4 years after being proven dead wrong about Joe Milton leaving if Shea Patterson made it through the season healthy, still arguing with basic facts.
It's reflected in the overall mindset -- the advice to Joe to dodge the fight and go to D3. the desire to see Edwards get down on himself because he's not getting the production he got as a starter, the desire to not play any team as scary as...Maryland? LOL.
dodge, duck, avoid, lie. Anything but take the L as a lesson and learn from it. These are all opportunities JE!
This is fun, because it's easy. Saying you're right doesn't make it so, but 4 posts to my 1 demonstrates how badly you're reeeaching ... rent free!
Delete- BOTTOM HALF ... NINE times now, in this thread alone ... but move the goalposts and try splitting national QBs into thirds. Joe is still behind Rutgers, GeorgiaST, and GoGo UNLV QBs
- "Dude has been coaching for like 20 years and you still think all he wants to do is power run up the gut with Toby Gerhart or Khalil Hill" When have I ever said this? You're lying again Lank ... reeeaching makes it easier to prove you wrong. Never have I said this or anything like this
- D3 means Joe would have started (probably), which means faaar more reps than sitting on a bench. That's just a fact Lank. Considering he still stands flat footed in the pocket, cannot make postsnap reads, and STARES at one side of the field, my opinion was solid and right
- not sure what the Saint trick play has to do with this, but reeeaching ... dodging ... moving goalposts
- YES, every point you try to make. Stats. Video. Analogies. All easily dismantled
- the SEC peer comparison was at YOUR request Lank ... October 15, 2023 at 3:30 PM ... you say you aren't being proven wrong, but you're a liar
- ooh, an extended video from yesterday's loss. One impressive drive, that opened the game. Good drive to close the half. In between, meh; I appreciate that Huepel is making Joe run more, but the passes were right back to nearly all behind the LoS or easy wide open slants. Then the 2nd Half: nothing. Collapse. SIXTH year senior outplayed by a first year QB. On 3rd then 4th &1, the 6'5 230lb QB tries to juke for a 1st Down, rather than running over or through a defender. Both attempts failed. After that he must've been coached up, bc I credit Joe for running more physically; that's his best chance. Nothing in the pass game though, and turned the ball over as he demonstrates zero pocket awareness, stares to the right, and gives up a scoop & score. At least he had the pretend bow & arrow
*you forgot Case Closed, it's my favorite
@JE
DeleteI see you've still dodged the challenge. One quote. ONE! You can do it!
Find one quote I've made. Find one data point that proves it incorrect. Don't make stuff up. Just a quote. Put down the statement I made. And then facts to counter it.
One quote. Dismantle it!
You can do it. I have faith! And patience, like my guy Joe. Year 6 baby!
I'm taking it to you right up the gut. You really just going to try to stunt outside? That won't work JE. It's short yardage.
One quote. Make it happen or admit you don't have it in you.
The guy who never played is now pretending he understands football strategy 😂
DeleteOkay, where do I start? SEC peers? UTSA? The Airraid being reduced to screens? Nah, the first quote I'll use will be my favorite: Case Closed 😂😂😂
How many times have you used it? How many times have you come back? Not even YOU believe your lies Lank 🤣
Too easy 😂🫳🏽 🎤 ⤵️
Wow JE. How many emoji's is that? A lot.
DeleteQuotes though? Zero.
LOL
What statement did I make about SEC peers that you have disproven? What did I say about UTSA that was wrong? Please send me my the quotes.
Oh did you lose the receipt? Checks in the mail?
Not even you believe you. Every accusation is a confession!
You like Case Closed? Here you go.
Your argument about Milton in 2019? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Milton in 2020? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Milton in 2021? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Edwards in 2021? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Edwards in 2022? CASE CLOSED
Let me know which you want receipts for. I keep all those baby!
You dodge, duck, dance, cower, and lie. No emoji's can stop you from taking this big packet of Ls.
One quote! That's all you had to do. You couldn't do it!
You could have at least dodged Milton and gone to Wilton Speight or something LOL. It's not even hard. But you can't do it.
You failed. You lost.
Lank: show me Edwards carry distribution & prove he is boom or bust
Deleteme: here's Joe's carries & results in his best game ... it's boom or bust
Lank now do Edwards v Illinois 😭
also Lank: you're moving the target 😭
Lank show me ONE QUOTE, just ONE where I was wrong
me: hmmm ... how about CASE CLOSED
Lank: you can't do it without emojis, you failed
also Lank: you're moving the target 😭
just take the L already!
Still no quote? ROTFL emoji!
DeleteYou're having a fake conversation with yourself. Some people just like to argue (with no one). You claim to be a competitor but you dodge and duck and recommend others do the same. Some people are just built different I guess.
I keep receipts. I have facts. You have emojis and lies.
The only L I'll take from you is your LYING. As always, every accusation is projection, an admission. You're telling on yourself. You're embarrassing yourself. Please keep it up. I'm having a great time.
Let me know when you have a quote JE. One. That's all I'm asking.
DeleteOtherwise see above. I'm just repeating myself about the ol duck n' dodger. There's no substance to your posts. Just dancing.
As always, if you want to have a constructive and intelligent conversation - I'll respond in kind. If you want to dodge and argue - I'll address that too, with substance. If you want to do insults - well I'm not opposed to responding in kind there either, if that's how you want it.
Just pick which kind of L you want to take.
CASE CLOSED is a quote
DeleteSee? No need for multiple replies. No essays. Too easy 💪🏽😎
What case was that?
Delete"No need for multiple replies."
Yet here you are. The emoji analyst.
oNe qUoTe 😭
Deleten0 nOt tHaT oNe 🤡
Still here JEmoji. One quote. One bit of evidence that proves it wrong.
DeleteYou have nothing!
Too small!
Denial ... LyinLank, in denial
DeleteJEmoji. Your "quote" is 2 words. A metaphor. That you don't understand. That you didn't disprove.
DeleteOne quote. One shred of evidence to disprove it. Preferably about football and not your favorite hobby: talking about Lank.
As you've shown again and again. You can't do it. Not once. Dodge. Duck. Pretend.
No denial in this:
DeleteYour argument about Milton in 2019? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Milton in 2020? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Milton in 2021? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Edwards in 2021? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Edwards in 2022? CASE CLOSED
I have the quotes. I have the evidence. About football.
You have nada. You want to talk about my posts. Insult and lie. Play dodgeball. Only person in denial here is you.
Everytime! Every accusation. You're talking to a mirror and too small (emoji) to notice but to anyone else it's easy to see.
Posting across multiple threads the same thing. Everyday.
DeleteEverytime JEmoji! Everytime.
If the case were closed, why are you still here?
DeleteLyinLank, trying to convince himself 😂
Your argument about Milton in 2019? CASE CLOSED
DeleteYour argument about Milton in 2020? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Milton in 2021? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Edwards in 2021? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Edwards in 2022? CASE CLOSED
I'm here because it's hilarious.
Everyday you tell on yourself. Who wants attention. Who makes up an argument and then claims victory over it. Who is lying and in denial.
Everytime. Everyday. JE93 til Infinity
If the case were closed, you wouldn't be talking about it. Not even YOU agree with you
DeleteYou're just obsessed, waiting for someone to talk to ... even if it takes three weeks 🤣
http://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2023/10/preview-michigan-vs-indiana.html
Interesting take. Nobody talked about Roe vs Wade after 1973? Brown v Board of Education never got mentioned after 1954?
DeleteTelling you how many times you lost and you don't want to hear it. Well sorry bub, you lost again.
Tough luck:
Your argument about Milton in 2019? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Milton in 2020? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Milton in 2021? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Edwards in 2021? CASE CLOSED
Your argument about Edwards in 2022? CASE CLOSED
Prove any of that wrong.
You won't.
You can't.
JtakingLs93
Everytime!
Keep counting posts though.
Milton vs Cade thing.
ReplyDeleteAnother comparable to Milton in 23 and Cade in 21 is praise for managing the game and leadership.
https://www.rockytopinsider.com/2023/10/11/tennessee-offensive-coordinator-joey-halzle-evaluates-quarterback-play-from-joe-milton-after-first-five-game/
It's too bad for Cade he burned his leadership credibility on his way out of town and with his reaction to JJ.
I'm not too steeped in the Milton vs. McNamara thing because they're both gone and I don't care too strongly about them anymore, but as I've mentioned before, Milton is where he is because of his past experiences. He may be a good leader now, but that's on the basis of five previous years of being in college. McNamara was praised for his leadership in year two. It's taken Milton to year six to earn praise for his leadership.
DeleteSo both sides can be true. Milton may have been a crappy leader three years ago and has now learned to be a good one. Maybe going through his trials and tribulations has led to personal growth.
They are both 23 years old and Milton has built his legacy up while McNamara has burned his to the ground. I don't see equivalent leadership at all.
DeleteBeing competitive is good. Undermining your teammates isn't.
DeleteI don't think that's a hot take.
This was posted on October 3, and you two (Lank/je93) are still arguing on November 2. This has to be a record for the length of a discussion. We're at 170+ comments and counting...
ReplyDeleteJEmoji is definitely counting... And I'm still waiting.
DeleteLankOctober 22, 2023 at 12:10 PM
When you say Milton is in the bottom half of the SEC in QBR, who are you arguing with? What point do you prove? What statement, that I made, are you correcting? That's the question JE. Because if you can't answer it, I will answer it for you. You are arguing with a strawman. You are moving the goalposts. You are lying to yourself. Not once did I say Joe Milton will be an above average SEC starter. So - what lies have I told exactly. What stats do I deny. That's the challenge I'm giving you JE. You're a competitor baby. Expose me! Give a quote. Give a stat that disproves it. It should NOT be hard.
LyinLank didn't like the NewMexSt & San Antonio QB comparisons, and asked for SEC peers ... he got it, and didn't like the reality
DeleteI'm okay w/checking in every couple days or so, and playing w/his feelings
see: LankOctober 15, 2023 at 3:30 PM
SEC ranks proved you wrong then and they prove you wrong now. Never once proved me wrong.
DeleteAll quiet on the Milton front again this week. That'll change the next time Milton struggles.
What won't?
JE will NEVER prove me wrong. No quotes. No evidence.
It's not impossible. I've been wrong plenty. But JE is too small for the task.
Emojis? Yessir. tap that phone.
Evidence? Logic? A cogent point? Too small.
You have been proven wrong
Delete- meaningful snaps
- CASE CLOSED is a quote
- Edwards isn't grinding through tackles in any of the highlights you post
- 2 plays & ONE carry are not meaningful snaps. Getting in after the opponent is done scoring & thoroughly defeated is not meaningful snaps
- Joe is being managed. More behind LoS & short passes than any D1 QB either of us has seen this year (his SIXTH). I did notice that he is now in the upper half of QBR ... congrats?
LyinLank is in denial ... and obsessed
Not once!
Delete- meaningful snaps <-- you were wrong. you tried to get me with Stokes snap count and you were wrong about that. And wrong about what constitutes "meaningful" as well. You don't know what words mean. Stokes played meaningful snaps in multiple games the one you tried to pick out as a counterexample...and you fail.
- CASE CLOSED is a quote <------ you were wrong. Again you don't know what words mean. you don't even know what "case" you are talking about.
- Edwards isn't grinding through tackles in any of the highlights you post <--------- wrong again. Edwards breaks tackles. Over and over. Even after you move the goalposts on Edwards for the 10th time you are still wrong.
- 2 plays & ONE carry are not meaningful snaps. Getting in after the opponent is done scoring & thoroughly defeated is not meaningful snaps <---- LOL did you forget you already covered this? I'll repeat it again -- you are wrong again. All the other starters are in. Blake rotated back in after Stokes. Multiple snaps as a backup, not many, but some -- just like the OP posted about. But you forgot - just like you forgot you already said this in this post, just like you forgot when you lost the bet to me what the bet was. Too small! You're not built for this lil buddy.
- Joe is being managed. <-------- LOL. Not even you believe you. I'm the one who said Joe was a game manager being managed. "Joe is Cade".
But again you don't know what words mean. All your shitting on Joe and you don't have ONE QUOTE. Not one that contradicts what I said.
Delete"More behind LoS & short passes than any D1 QB either of us has seen this year" <--- LOL lies. Even the short passes in the offense are long because of extra wide splits. Sorry about the facts. You have no data to proved it. I gave you YPA. You have nothing but your sad stupid opinions. Wrong again.
"(his SIXTH)." YEAR 6 baby. I laugh everytime you bring this up because it proves you wrong again. Joe is patient. You were wrong.
"I did notice that he is now in the upper half of QBR ... congrats?"
Congrats for what? I never predicted this. Another one of your Lank fantasies. No quotes! Ever.
You have no quotes.
You have no evidence.
Wrong every time.
Not even you believe you.
JEverytime clowns himself again.
Three posts, but not obsessed
Delete*are you really considering the width of the field as "long passes?" 🤣
- Meaningful snaps: you still can't decide what "meaningful" snaps means 😂 ... I laid out context, you can't handle that
- if the case were closed, you wouldn't be talking about it 😂
did Justice Blackburn rehear Roe? Did any of the plaintiff or lawyers involved file again? NO
Did Thurgood Marshall re-file Brown? NO
We're both cases mentioned again? Yes, but not by those folks ... YOU said Case Closed, but don't believe it ... not even YOU believe you 😂
Outsmarted 😂🤣🤣😂
- Edwards is not grinding through tackles. Corum is. Mullings is. Even Sendaj is. Not Edwards. Even your highlight videos fail to show it 😎
- behind the LoS passes was taken from Brian at MGoBlog:
https://mgoblog.com/content/and-then-it-got-worse
"Amongst QBs with at least 100 attempts McCarthy is 126th of 150 qualifiers in screen rate. (Gavin Wimsatt, of all people, is dead last; Joe Milton, of all people, is #1)
If you knew how to watch the tape, you would have gathered as much from all the Every Snap videos shared 😤
-joe was impatient at MICHIGAN. He left after getting benched 👎🏽
Stop dodging, take the bet!
http://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2023/10/michigan-52-indiana-7.html