Run the damn ball. Coming into the game, Indiana was ranked #91 in rushing defense. And it was raining. So naturally, Michigan decided to come out throwing, with four pass plays and two rushes in the first six plays. Two of those pass plays resulted in sacks, and one was a drop by Colston Loveland. Meanwhile, the two carries by Corum averaged 4.5 yards per rush. Michigan wasn't necessarily going to obliterate Indiana on the ground with huge runs, but they could have just taken over the game physically instead of trying to throw in those conditions.
Hit the jump for more.
McCarthy played a good game in the rain. There were a few questionable ball placements for McCarthy in this one, but aside from Loveland's drop, Michigan's receivers came through for him and made some tough receptions. He finished 14/17 for 222 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. McCarthy also made some plays with his feet, including a beautiful 54-yard scramble drill touchdown to Loveland. It's hard to complain too much about going 14/17 in the rain . . .
. . . but McCarthy should be benched. Backup quarterback Jack Tuttle came in and went 5/5, so what's up with J.J. McCarthy? Clearly he's not taking practice seriously enough to complete all of his passes, and a strong message needs to be sent. He must be out playing golf with Shea Patterson. Also, a full 20% of Tuttle's passes went for touchdowns (this one a 4-yarder to freshman Karmello English) while only 17.6% of McCarthy's attempts resulted in scores. Shameful.
You know it's coming. The saga of Donovan Edwards's drop-off continues. With Kalel Mullings out due to injury, Michigan seemed to only really trust two backs for the majority of the game: Blake Corum (13 carries, 52 yards, 2 touchdowns) and Donovan Edwards (9 carries, 20 yards, 1 TD). Where Edwards made his biggest impact was in the passing game, where he caught 2 passes for 33 yards. Despite an ugly drop last week, he's best as a receiver out of the backfield and a creator in space. His catches went for 17 and 16 yards, but his longest rush went for 5 yards. Late in the second quarter, he caught a short pass on a J.J. McCarthy scramble during a scramble drill and then got the ball down near the goal line on a carry. On the succeeding play, Michigan tried to sub in Corum for the goal line carry, but Edwards tried to wave him off. The coaching staff then took a timeout to make sure Corum got in the game, at which point Corum scored a goal line touchdown. A lot of people on Twitter didn't like it, but it was the right decision. Corum is the superior short yardage back, and Michigan's 14-7 lead at that point required a sure thing (Corum), not a feelingsball attempt to get a touchdown-less guy (Edwards) a touchdown. If Edwards wants goal line carries, he needs to start breaking some tackles and/or driving his feet after contact.
Pass protection needs to improve. Michigan's pass protection has been a little underwhelming at times, and yesterday, a lot of the issues seemed to come from Karsen Barnhart at right tackle. There were a couple times where I just didn't love Barnhart's effort in pass pro. It was as if he had an internal clock that had run out, but McCarthy was still waiting for someone to come open. Sometimes that's a sign that the quarterback is holding onto the ball too long, but I think it was more on Barnhart. Anyway, Barnhart wasn't the only culprit, but Indiana notched 4 sacks altogether. The Hoosiers have only had 4 sacks in one other game so far this year . . . and that was against FCS Indiana State. Michigan is going to face much better pass rushers against Penn State's Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac and Ohio State's J.T. Tuimoloau, so they need to shore that up.
The defense is playing lights out. Michigan is #2 nationally in total defense (233 yards allowed/game) and #1 in scoring defense (6.7 points allowed/game). There were some early issues in the first quarter with Indiana having success in the short passing game. Since Indiana installed a new offensive coordinator over the bye week in former NIU and Temple head coach Rod Carey, Michigan didn't really have a bead on what the Hoosiers might try to do. It was probably smart for defensive coordinator Jesse Minter to play off a little bit and rally to the ball until they could figure out how they might be attacked. On Indiana's lone touchdown, they picked on a young safety in Keon Sabb and threw a double-pass by former quarterback Donaven McCulley for a 44-yard touchdown. Hats off to Indiana for that, but otherwise, Indiana's quarterbacks went 13/28 for 96 yards and 2 interceptions. Michigan also made 8 tackles, 4 sacks, and 3 forced fumbles, 2 of which were recovered.
Let's check in on the freshmen. There were some noteworthy performances from freshmen in this game, so let's take a look:
- WR Karmello English: 1 catch, 4 yards, 1 touchdown. We didn't see much of English, but he set up a slant into the back of the endzone, and Tuttle waited for him to clear and put the ball right on him. He and Peyton O'Leary each have one catch on the year for a touchdown . . . which is the same number of touchdowns Cornelius Johnson has on 19 catches.
- RB Benjamin Hall: 9 carries, 58 yards, 1 touchdown. Hall looked just like he did in the spring game - great patience, good vision, and the ability to push the pile. He doesn't look like a freshman.
- WR Fredrick Moore: 1 catch for 4 yards. It seems like the coaches like Moore, but they haven't really found a way for him to be too successful just yet. He came in very skinny, and I think he's going to need to get a little stronger before he can do much.
- WR Semaj Morgan: Morgan caught 1 pass for a 7-yard touchdown and returned 2 kickoffs for 36 yards. On the screen pass he turned into a score, he froze a couple defenders and then ran over Indiana defensive back Kobee Minor on his way into the endzone. He might not have the greatest speed, but he's mighty tough.
- WR Tyler Morris (bonus freshman): Morris led the team in receptions (4) while gaining 54 yards and returning 1 punt for 27 yards. While he's not technically a freshman, I kind of dismiss 2022 because he was coming off of an ACL tear. Not only does he appear to be a reliable passing target, but he's got some of that Ronnie Bell balance and toughness on punt returns. He doesn't have blazing speed, but he finds a way to gain yards after contact.
- CB D.J. Waller: 1 tackle. Waller allowed a touchdown in this one . . . even though the touchdown was reviewed and disallowed, since Omar Cooper, Jr.'s foot was on the sideline when he caught the ball. He got lost on the (disallowed) touchdown, so there's still a lot of work to do, but it's noteworthy that he's out on the field ahead of some other guys.
I am very upset. Michigan had a chance to kick a field goal and make it a 48-7 game, which would have matched my game prediction (LINK). But noooooo...Jim Harbaugh had to go for a touchdown, so Michigan made it 52-7 instead. I swear he coaches just to spite me sometimes, but I'm glad he's an avid reader.
Play of the game, if there is such a thing in a 52-7 outcome, was Morris fielding that punt as it was bouncing at the 30 with 3 minutes left in the half and the score 14-7. He returns it to the Indiana 40, sets up a short field for basically the dagger, 21-7. If he lets it bounce, and 99 out of 100 time the other returners would have, that probably goes to inside the 10. UM then has to bleed clock, protect the football, and probably punt to the 50 with 90 seconds left with a chance to score.
ReplyDeleteGood observation. I've noticed over the years that when returners wait a beat to gather the ball, usually by accident due to some awkward/scary ball handling initially, they have more time to react to the defense and find seams. I've never seen anybody deliberately create a pause to take advantage of this but have for many years wondered if some creative football mind will revolutionize the return game.
DeleteYeah, that was a pretty good play and set them up for a nice drive. I did think that TD drive was the nail in the coffin, really. Otherwise, it's 14-7 at halftime and one mistake (a fumble, pick-six, etc.) could spell trouble. Once Michigan had a two-score lead, I figured that would be insurmountable.
DeleteKudos to you Thunder, for still finding things to say. I feel like after 7 blowouts I'm out of new things to say. Defense is great but we still don't know anything until they play someone that's going to put pressure on them. JJ is still dealing but ditto. Donovan Edwards is still a good RB, despite/in addition to being a good receiver.
ReplyDeleteAt some point I guess we can ask if the run game's relative mediocrity and lack of big plays is a problem - Blake Corum just ran for 4.0 ypc against an overmatched opponent and while the passing offense ranks top 10 in fancy stats while the run game is in the 40s - but I'm still wholly unworried.
The most interesting BITS to come out of this game are the freshman. I like the bullets above. With a lot of seniors out the door the WR snaps are going to look very different next year. Moore and Morgan seem to have jumped ahead of Clemons and I'm still optimistic on Clemons but a little worried he's going to andrel his way somewhere else. I don't get counting Morris as a freshman - he was playing meaningful downs against TCU and OSU last year - that's more than most freshman do. Morris is your WR1 next year and as an experienced junior he'll likely likely be looked to for a leadership role.
As for CB - freshman get beat sometimes even future high end starters like Lewis and Stribling. Waller was a "check again later" type of recruit but seems to be ahead of Hill and maybe Walker right now. Rivals (or whatever they are called now) was saying he's a high character kid doing everything right off the field. I'm intrigued. Hillman is another one who was not mentioned above but looks very promising. Zeke Berry was highly rated and well hyped but seems to be hampered by injuries and might just get passed.
Anyway, we are in a good place. A team that looks absolutely loaded from top to bottom (as long as you don't look too close at the secondary). Every piece is in place, in theory. There are no significant injury concerns through 7 games, thankfully. But we only know what we know from playing overmatched teams and we've seen how this can bread overconfidence in the past. They can only play who they play and we can only watch what we see.
The OSU/PSU game next week will be more insightful to our prospects in November than any game we ourselves will play in October.
Not a fan of designed runs for my Qb against Indiana in 2023. If indeed they were designed runs, I'm not sophisticated enough to pick up on the RPOs every time ... or even often. And really not a fan of my Qb getting off the ground wincing and trying to get his body straight against Indiana in 2023. Really not a fan. Really.
ReplyDeleteSemaj Morgan. "He ain't fast, they just can't catch him."
I have never seen a Michigan practice and consequently have not the first clue on what the coaches see, but when it's game time, Benjamin Hall relentlessly hits the creases and then breaks tackles.
Maybe Trente' is the answer, although this is an issue that needs to get resolved sooner rather than later.
Roanman
Remember that there's not much evidence that QB runs are any more likely to cause injury than sitting in the pocket. The threat of JJ's runs keeps the heat off him in the pass game to a degree. I'm not sure I'm quite at mgoblog's recommended 5+ runs a game but I think doing 2 or 3 times has more benefits than risk.
DeleteTrente Jones seems like a really good player. The buzz is that off-field there are some questions. I'm not on TikTok but maybe there's enough evidence there. Perhaps the coaches value him as a backup and 6th OL, but simply don't want to trust him as core starter.
Not a fan.
DeleteIt seems like a millions years ago, but when Drevno was the OL coach the OL sucked ass, could not pick up a stunt to save their life, and got every QB killed. Iowa, night game, they got Wilton hurt, gave up a safety, and we got to see o'korn. The run game could not close out games, see MSU. Wilton could not throw well after getting obliterated, see OSU in 2016 "the spot!". He was never the same, really. I will not forget Ed Warinner.
DeleteI agree a little on the QB run thing, especially late in the game. I'm okay with it early, but once you're up by 3-4 touchdowns...I don't really see the point. There are other ways to take pressure off the QB, such as draws to the RB, screens, etc.
DeleteYeah I mean we can ask a lot of questions about why Harbaugh does what he does with commanding leads. JJ hasn't played a lot of snaps in the 4th quarters of games but at least half of his 3rd quarter snaps have been unnecessary as well.
DeleteAgree on the JJ runs Roanman. He's taking a lot of unnecessary hits
DeleteOk, I am going to jinks JJ. He is the best QB that Michigan has had. Skill wise, Henson was #1 in 2000 although he missed a chunk of time with an injury and had to deal with Carr/DeBord, but Henson was the best, and he was throwing to better receivers . JJ has now passed him. Henson had better Offensive players, JJ has better coaches.
ReplyDeleteBest season (so far) , I have to go with Brady in 1999. He was able to pull victory out of defeat numerous time despite the coaching malpractice of Carr. Criminal what carr did. In no universe was Henson anywhere close to Brady in 99. Cost us a Natty.
Harbaugh was the only first round QB draft pick, I think JJ goes in the first.
I can think of one Michigan QB definitely more skilled than Henson. McCarthy will make 2.
DeleteDenard and Henne make 4, in my view. After that it gets debatable -- Navarre definitely had a better career (in college and in the pros) so how speculative do you want to be? Patterson was also more productive and statistically impressive, with less talent around him than Henson had.
Henson - over hyped and over rated... to this day!
I think McCarthy has surpassed Henson based largely on his ability to create outside the pocket, as well as his unprecedented accuracy on intermediate throws. You have to be able to make things happen with your arm to be at the tip-top of this list, so that excludes Denard.
DeleteBased on pure athletic talent, Devin Gardner belongs up there near the top of the list, too. Not only a talented runner and thrower, but showed he could play receiver, too.
Denard engineered two scoring drives in the final 1:22 against Notre Dame in 2011. Last 5 plays were all passes, totaling 128 yard and 2 TDs, without a single run. I'd say that qualifies as making things happen. Team had 343 yards passing that day to 114 rushing.
DeleteI think with QBs, athleticism is such a small part of it most of the time. Denard's speed being a pretty big exception. If we talk about talent we have to look at other factors for the vast majority of QBs. And I know a lot of people here are in the camp that accuracy is something you either have or you don't. That seems like the textbook definition of talent right? So I think by that argument you've gotta put Brady ahead of all the others, even though the NFL missed it. Dude always had excellent accuracy - Griese and Henne as well. Those guys rarely missed. That's talent if you ask me, far more relevant than Mallet and Milton being able to throw it 90 yards.
I'll agree that Devin Gardner was a talent, though WR has nothing to do with that. Dude could do everything, but was hamstrung by the worst offensive coaching I've ever seen at Michigan, a bad OL, etc.
QB Talent Rankings since 1997. Ignores production.
Delete1. Brady - processing speed and throw accuracy are the most important traits for a QB. Brady always had accuracy and displayed processing while at UM too
2. McCarthy - the whole package but I'm not putting him over Brady
3. Griese - accurate as hell and you know who he inherited it from. could make plays on the move too (waggle heavy offense)
4. Henne - "robot" accuracy but not as good on the move or improvising
5. Gardner-- could have been a bigger/less talented JJ if he was coached by Harbaugh/Moore instead of Hoke/Borges
6. Henson (no QB has underacheived to talent more, or his talent wasn't what it was reported to be and he had more help than anyone...but the fact that he competed with Brady says a lot)
7. Robinson (probably ranks 1 in RR system and 10 in Harbaugh's but Harbaugh would have done great with him)
8. Matt Gutierrez (if you don't know, look him up)
9. Tate Forcier (what a waste, dude was accurate and could throw on the move)
10. Navarre - worked hard, resilient, tough, and outproduced his talent more than anyone IMO. Probably should be higher if you consider work ethic a talent in itself.
I know that in another threat there's a claim that Edwards plowed into the EZ, but the truth is, he leaned on an OL that paved his path. Feet barely moved. Hall isn't fast enough to be RB1 or 2, but definitely drives his legs
ReplyDeleteSemaj Morgan showed more leg drive & physicality on that TD yesterday than we saw in the highlight video shared earlier in the week
*thread not threat
DeleteHall will be RB1 or RB2 at Michigan. JE will claim something changed with Hall when it happens. The change will be Corum and Edwards graduating.
DeleteI was watching the highlights, and on that Semaj Morgan TD, Trevor Keegan bear-hugged him and dragged him into the end zone.
DeleteHall looks like he could be RB2 right now. I think he is/will be better than De'Veon Smith, because he's just as strong but has better agility. I like what I've seen from Hall.
Delete@ Anonymous 4:48 p.m.
DeleteI think Morgan was getting into the end zone without Keegan's help. Maybe just a little less forcefully.
Yes, but watching Keegan make sure was great!
Delete@Lank 4:16
DeleteMaybe next year. Hall's cameo appearance against a woefully defeated Hoosier D was good, but doesn't prove he's ready right now
@Anon 4:48
That was great to see, but I was more impressed by Morgan's willingness to plow a guy. We don't see that in some ball carriers
*a cool story during the game: Announcers asked JH awhile back if he every considered going with a more modern, pass happy Offense. JH responds along the lines of JACK HARBAUGH this & that, and how his gravestone will have a Power play etched onto it ... I loved it! Harball all day! Run first, run often
Yes next year or later. Obviously not this year with a couple vet NFL-bound backs ahead of him.
DeleteGood episode from John Jansen. Edwards is interviewed, and just sounds like an amazing young man. 7 games in, and he started to question himself (everything is not fine). Fortunately, his faith is strong, his spirits are high, and he is committed to success for the team. Hopefully we get him more creative touches, and let The Don reach his potential
ReplyDeletehttps://mgoblue.com/sports/2020/8/4/general-mgoblue-podcasts
What did you hear to make you think everything is not fine?
DeleteI mean, didn't you listen?
DeleteHe was discouraged Games1-4, and says so 3x. Calls it a low point, and admits to being worried. He had to place his faith in the Lord during this low point, which uplifted his spirit. He went through it ... definitely not "better than ever"
@JE
DeleteI heard a very optimistic young man with great perspective. Where's the problem?
He felt discouraged when he didn't experience success -- How else would you want him to feel? He ran for 500+ yards and got 70 carries in 3 games as a starter to close last year. Games 1-3 he's back to being a backup and getting a handful of carries each game. A competitor would know that that burns. Especially without breaking a big run.
He isn't letting it get him down though. He has the proper perspective of being tested and challenged and facing up to it. Not everyone sees adversity as a bad thing. It makes you stronger. Donovan gets it.
This was already covered last week in a different interview. He knows he just needs to keep at it. Nothing needs to change. That first olive was going to pop out of the jar and it did. He sounds happy healthy and strong and frankly more wise than ever.
Problem count = 0.
You can listen to Blake Corum's interview on the same podcast and he sounds a lot more bothered by fumbling in east lansing a couple years ago. Says it stuck with him. Is that a problem too? I say no - it made him better.
Donovan is telling you very directly that the experience has made him stronger and better. I think you're hearing something else because you want to.
I don't even understand the Edwards argument anymore. Is anyone actually disagreeing that he's not playing that well right now? I'm not concerned that he's going to rush for 3.3YPC all year, but I'd be lying if I said that I wasn't hoping for more thus far.
DeleteI hoped for more, so did Donovan, so did everyone. Doesn't mean he is playing poorly. Just keep at it young buck - like the coaches tell him. Don't change, just keep at it.
DeleteThe only thing keep Edwards from producing like he did at the end of last year was the same thing that kept him from producing like that at the beginning of last year and the year before that. He's spending most of his time on the bench behind Blake Corum.
It's surprising he hasn't busted a long run yet. At some point that could be concerning. Is it yet? No. Last year Donovan didn't break a long run until the 2nd half of the PSU game. Maybe it'll take that long again this year.
Doesn't matter. We know he can play and we see him getting it done as a passer. It just hasn't happened yet as a ball carrier. Problem count = 0.
I agree. He sounds like a great young man
DeleteBut even Edwards agrees: slow start, low point, discouraging. The coaches agree in giving the tougher runs to Blake, Mullings, Hall & LeonFranklin(!) ... just stick to the strawman, and pretend we all think he sucks, rather than Edwards isn't having a good season
Only Lank, the contrarian misses it
Here's another. Harbaugh on In The Trenches, complimenting ball security from our RBs. Blake's grinding/hard running style and Edwards ... as a receiving checkdown
DeleteTrust the coaches, right?
https://art19.com/shows/michigan-football-in-the-trenches-with-jon-jansen/episodes/700530c3-177b-4949-a338-6f82234e3c2b
The distinction is performance and production. Never argued about production, YPC, 1 TD, etc. Not once.
DeleteYou believe the coaches prefer Leon Franklin over Edwards. That says it all. This is pure fantasy.
Was Edwards a receiving check-down last year against OSU, Purdue, and TCU?
There is no strawman. You have said, repeatedly, that Edwards is not a good RB between the tackles, that he lacks balance, etc. Thunder said he lacks patience, vision, and chutpah -- or lost sometime between January and September. I disagree.
Yes trust the coaches. Coaches are all positive. Keep doing what you are doing, nothing to worry about, no performance concerns. Production isn't there -- that's a fact that no one disputes. Performance IS there.
DeleteNeed an example of the difference:
Fitz Toussaint's YPC by year
Frosh: 10.9
Soph: 5.6
Jr: 4.0
Sr: 3.5
Fitz played several years in the NFL so either he started off as Barry Sanders and went downhill from there OR.... he got better but his production tailed off.
So to clarify, you believe that Edwards is playing just as well as he was at the end of last year? His decline in YPC is 0% attributable to a drop off in play? That's insane to me. I'm not saying that the decline in YPC is 100% due to poor play, but I believe it's certainly greater than 0%. This is purely conjecture but I believe it's due to a combination of lack of practice contact, a desire to maximize his somewhat limited carries and at this point likely some second guessing / overthinking as he's very likely getting frustrated with the lack of production.
DeleteAgain, it's my belief that this turns around, and his YPC ends up north of 5 on the year, but I'm not going to pretend like him running for 3.3YPC on a decent sample size thus far is 100% circumstantial and out of his control.
Stats through 7 games:
Delete2021: 22 carries, 139 yards, 6.3 YPC, 2 TD
2022: 45 carries, 307 yards, 6.8 YPC, 4 TD
2023: 60 carries, 197 yards, 3.28 YPC, 1 TD
Edwards has more carries against a weaker schedule in 2023 than in either of the two previous years. I had this debate on Twitter, too. The excuses are numerous:
- He needs more carries
- He needs the ball in space
- He needs to get in a groove
- Whenever he comes in the game, the defense stacks the box
- The OC doesn't know how to call a game for him
If the #2 running back was named Tavierre Dunlap or C.J. Stokes or Cole Cabana and was running for 3.28 yards/carry, the calls for a new RB2 would be loud and frequent.
@Anon
DeleteYes. The production isn't matching hopes in the run game for Don - he obviously hasn't broken any long runs and 60 carries is a lot to not break any - but that's how the cookie crumbles sometimes.
His production is up as a pass catcher and he'll likely break his career high in receptions this week. He looks like the same playmaker in the pass game, perhaps better than ever, but not in the run game.
As has been proven before, Edwards strengths as a pass catcher do not preclude him from being a good rusher. Somebody like Harbaugh complementing his pass catching is not low-key insulting his abilities as a ball carrier.
The rationale for Edwards not producing the same YPC is very simple:
-He has not broken as many long runs as last year
Why is that? Well, fundamentally long runs are infrequent events that occur infrequently. Ever try to predict one? Good luck. There's randomness to it.
Remember Edwards 85 yard run against OSU? Great play. Had me jump out of my seat. But... not a great performance by Edwards. He ran straight ahead pretty much untouched. I'd say most maybe all of our RBs on that play in that moment could have ran straight ahead for 85 yards. That was the OL and the defensive playcall - not about a RB playing out of his mind.
Likewise, his lack of production now is not about him playing terrible.
Edwards was at 7.1 YPC last year and this year he is at 3.3 YPC and my assertion is that he is the same player. He didn't play like a 7.1 YPC player last year - he overproduced relative to his performance. This year he is underproducing relative to his performance.
The difference between Edwards and Dunlap or Stokes is that we have seen Edwards do what he did. We know he was a 5 star recruit, we know he is projected as top NFL pick, we have seen him make plays again and again in 2021 and 2022. So either you think this guy got worse for no reason whatsoever (chutzpah deficiency?) or you acknowledge that production and performance aren't the same thing.
Either you see 60 carries for 200 yards and 45 carries for 300 yards as massively different, or you consider that well within the realm of random variance.
I would just ask if it makes any sense that Edwards got worse as a player. If there is any logical explanation for it. If so - wouldn't you expect it to stick for the rest of the year? Does anyone actually think that?
Or do you think he can 'flip the switch' or 'pull the olive' and suddenly he is going to be the same old Donovan we have seen thrive repeatedly when asked to handle a bigger workload.
Look at Hassan Haskins gamelog for 2021. He had days where he ran for 2.5 YPC and days where he ran for 6.0 YPC. He wasn't hungover on the 2.5 YPC and he wasn't taking performance enhancers on the 6.0 YPC - that was just how the cookie crumbled. One week an excellent RB might run for 2 YPC and the following week he might run for 7 YPC. One play a guy can run for -1 yard and the next run can be for 50. It doesn't mean he gained or lost vision or patience. It's just football.
Donovan is fine. More than fine. He is an excellent RB who is playing well. Production isn't there yet. I am 100% unphased by this. If Blake goes down again, I have full faith in the Don stepping in and thriving. Because I've seen it happen.
In 2021, Hassan Haskins went through a 52 carry stretch where he produced 211 yards. Don Edwards is currently on a 60 carry stretch where he has produced 197 yards.
DeleteI don't see the problem. Especially since in that same stretch Haskins caught 1 pass for 6 yards and Donovan has caught 18 for 161 yards.
Thunder will give you YPC stats all day and I will just say it doesn't mean anything. Overthinking it. Zooming in too far. Missing the forest for the trees.
Listen to Don. Listen to the coaches. Listen to NFL scouts. Everyone knows Don is not producing like we'd all like, but no one thinks Don is a lesser player who has lost some skills let alone core characteristics like vision.
Why is the RB the only position that you apply this logic to? Are you going to argue that JJ doesn't have good days / bad days? I would hope not. That doesn't mean that he's hungover or taking PEDs. He just didn't play well one week. Or maybe for a few weeks. Same logic applies to RB.
DeleteI provided a few potential reasons for why his performance may be suffering thus far. I'm not going to pretend to know the precise reason, but I'm also not going to chalk it up 100% to variance.
The 85 yard TD against OSU I'll give you. The 75 yard TD against OSU and the long runs against Purdue were great plays, however, and plays that were unique to Edwards and his ability.
Also my argument is not that he's a different player or that he's lost some physical skills - my argument is that he's not playing well. There are decisions that he's making throughout the game that are contributing to his YPC decline. In addition to the big play variance that you mentioned.
Delete@Anon
DeleteIf a RB is tackled behind the LOS on one play for -1 yard and then the next play he rips off a 30 yard TD where his is untouched. Did he go from playing badly to playing well?
Players can have good days and bad days but they don't go from having vision to lacking vision or having balance or lacking balance. This was Thunder's line of reasoning, that Edwards lost something.
A run plays success is a lot less about what a RB does than what the OL and the defense do. It's not independent, I'm not saying RBs have no agency whatsoever, I'm just saying it's a position where it's hard to make an impact. We saw that when Corum was replaced last year and the excuse was that Edwards was great too. Now suddenly he isn't?
The most plausible reason in a difference performance, if there was one, would be one of the "excuses" Thunder listed above. Being in a groove, in a rhythm, being comfortable and not pressing or overthinking. Anyone who has played sports for any stretch of time (or at least those who challenge themselves and don't just go for steamrolling lesser opponents) has felt this.
That's possible. But Edwards and the coaches are not saying that is what is happening. It is football and there is random variance. On one play the defense can call a blitz that the protection won't catch and JJ will "struggle" to throw the ball out of bounds and later in the day that blitz can get picked up and JJ can nail a guy 50 yards downfield.
Random variance and playing well/poorly are not mutually exclusive. They are both viable explanations. Sometimes dudes ARE just hungover (or they used to be anyway back when I was at Michigan LOL).
I don't know that I agree with the 75 yarder. JE would dismiss this run between the tackles because all he did was break an arm tackle at his feet. He says Edwards only does what the OL gives him. I think this is an example of where I would agree with him, frankly. Could someone else have done the same thing, without Edwards speed? I think so. Corum might have just juked the one guy who touched Edwards on that play. Haskins might have hurdled him. Deveon Smith might have ran through him (though he probably would have been caught from behind before making the endzone LOL). It might not be identical but the outcome isn't unique to Edwards. OSU brought their safeties up to try to stop the run but the gaping holes remained and big plays resulted. This translated for a career game for Cornelius Johnson too -- not just Edwards making big plays.
Regarding guys not playing well sometimes -- do you also think Corum was not playing well last week when he averaged just 4.0 YPC and was outproduced by Hall? Last year against Indiana he averaged 5.0 YPC on 25 carries and broke a 50 yarder.
I don't know it just seems a lot more logical to put this on random variance, which we see from play to play, than mostly on the RB playing well or not playing well. It's football so there are 22 guys on the field and they all do stuff and they all contribute to outcomes, it's not all about how great 1 guy is doing or not doing.
I'll make my argument very simple - RB results are driven by a combination of factors, but decision making / competence is one of those factors. To argue that results are 100% driven by either circumstances or physical ability is insane to me. Edwards running for 3.3 YPC this year is at least partially due to his decision making and overall play. We can quibble as to the % that you want to attribute to that. But it's not zero and to argue that it is zero is insane IMO.
Delete@Anon
DeleteYes to a combination of factors. We can quibble if the RB's performance is 20% or 1% or 0% or whatever, but to say Edwards performance is the biggest factor that explains most or all of the production (or lacktherof) is what I think is insane. Specifically -- It is insane to say Donovan Edwards went from 7 YPC to 3 YPC because he got worse in the offseason.
I have repeatedly provided examples of good players having good seasons whose performance varies by 2, 3, 4 yards per carry when pulling out a sample of 30, 40, 50, or 60 carries. There is random variance of results with identical actions due to circumstances and environment. This is just a fact of life.
So you can say guys just have good days and bad days all the time or play well or don't play well. That's all true and possible but also absolutely insufficient to explain the level of variance that we see. You can see the variance play to play and game to game, even for people on the absolute top of their game (like Corum last year).
Outcomes absolutely can vary 100% with identical performance. In other words it can be 0% due to a change in performance. That is plausible. That is a fact that I don't think you would dispute -- see example above of a RB swarmed in the backfield for -1 and untouched for 30 yard TD on the next same exact play. It happens.
Is it less likely to be 0% in 60 carries than 10? Yes. Is less likely in 140 carries than 60? Yes. Can random variance still linger in the results even after 140 carries - sure. We saw it last year. Donovan Edwards is not a RB that can sustain 7.1 YPC like he produced last year. He was not as good as Corum last year, he did not play as well, yet he produced better YPC.
The two long runs against OSU should be instructive here. They are not great individual performances by a RB, but they are exceptional results.
But anyway and regardless of ALL OF THAT. If Edwards can simply flip a switch from playing well to not playing well, why on earth would this "struggle" be worth any concern at all? Likewise, if it can just be turned off like a switch why would we take seriously the last 3 games of 2022?
Doesn't zooming out make more sense? Shouldn't the "lets see less of this guy" mentality be ignored? We KNOW Edwards is a playmaker. We KNOW he looks good in space in 2021, 2022, and 2023. We KNOW he has not produced big numbers at any point of the first half of his first three seasons and then when thrust into a bigger role BOOM production. So why are we pretending like there's any issue here other than a starter going back to being a backup?
The truth is I don't know what 'blame' % to put on Edwards but I watched 2022 with my eyes and I watched 2023 with my eyes and I see a guy who looks the same. Has he missed cuts and left yards there - sure, so has Corum and every other back, so did he in 2022.
It's absolutely not something to be concerned about.
So you agree that performance does play a factor in outcomes. Great.
DeleteI greatly enjoy your contributions to this site so please don't take this the wrong way, but I feel like you can write 1,000 words talking around a point that can be distilled into a single question. Does performance matter? Yes. Does it account for 100% of the variance in RB outcomes? Of course not.
Am I "concerned" is another question. No, but largely because I believe most of Edwards's value this year is going to come from his role in the passing game. Would I be concerned if Corum were to go down? Yes, I would be, which I believe is justified based on our loss to TCU last year and the Stokes carries against OSU that didn't go all that well. Against teams like OSU and Georgia we can't afford to leave too many yards on the field or fail to get into the end zone when you have the opportunity. Corum's vision and ability to squeeze out tough yards is rare and superior to Edwards. My eyes tell me that and I have anecdotal evidence based on Mullings receiving goal line carries against TCU.
@Lank 11o3
DeleteWhen did I say the coaches prefer Leon Franklin? When did I say Edwards is no good between the Tackles? Strawman or lying?
I did say he needed to improve his balance as a FR, two years ago
@Lank 11o6
Yes, trust the coaches. Harbaugh - known for hyperbole - compliments ea guy's running grit, but for Edwards, he's limited to catching. Then Hart says Edwards is "okay" as a runner, while complimenting his athleticism & playmaking ... sounds like they see some of the same things I do. He also explains the slump, and points to Edwards pressing too hard, trying to make the big play. Basically stuff thunder & others say
@Lank 1152
So now Edwards runs in The Game - career moments - are not a credit to him? Watch the game Lank. Stokes had the same exact opportunity, and "tripped on gras" ... only Edwards & maybe Corum score those big TDs
The rest of your posts are recycled blabber ... Edwards admits it. The coaches say it. The data backs it
Slow start. Definitely not to Edwards potential. Pray for better - he does!
Go Blue
@Anon
DeleteBrevity isn't my strong suit. Performance affects outcomes, yes. Outcomes also vary with identical performance. It's not 1 to 1. It could be 0%.
"Would I be concerned if Corum were to go down? Yes, I would be, which I believe is justified based on our loss to TCU last year "
Please explain this. Edwards had 120 yards and averaged 5.2 YPC. Edwards was highly productive. I don't get how the loss to TCU has anything to do with Edwards (given 3 turnovers none of which had anything to do with Edwards and a very bad defensive performance.) The offense, besides turnovers was excellent putting up 528 yards.
If your concern is Mulling then your concern is Mullings. I would say a) confidence in him is higher and b) Hall looks even more promising. Concern about Edwards I don't get. I agree Corum is better but... Edwards outproduced him as a starter.
By advanced stats the difference between Corum and Edwards on the season was less than 0.1 points per play. So if you slot in Edwards for 30 plays instead of Corum you lose a FG in one interpretation. But if you look at how he did those 3 games as a starter (ignoring the rest of the year) you lose nothing.
@JE.
DeleteHere what you said:
je93October 17, 2023 at 9:16 AM
"The coaches agree in giving the tougher runs to Blake, Mullings, Hall & LeonFranklin(!)"
Your assertions are reruns and you can't prove any of them. Your interpretations are fake - Edwards is nothing but positive and you see a problem.
No one will go on record against predicting against Edwards producing at any point. Because you all know he is going to bounce back and nothing is wrong. Production isn't there. Performance is.
@Lank
DeleteCorum received the bulk of the goal line carries last year prior to his injury and was generally very successful there. Once Corum went down they started to use Mullings on short yardage / goal line carries, instead of letting Edwards take those touches. Mullings obviously fumbled against TCU on the 1. My hypothesis is that a healthy Corum receives that goal line carry instead of Mullings and very likely scores.
One play example, but representative of a broader point. Clearly the coaches did not trust Edwards on the goal line last year and utilized a converted LB instead of giving him those carries. I don't think it's far fetched to say that we'd see a material downgrade in short yardage if Corum were to go down.
Uh, Lank ... you may not be savvy enough to watch the games, but certainly you heard Coach Hart ... to save short yardage tread on Corum, they go to any RB not named Edwards. He can catch though, so there's that
DeleteKeep trying Lank ... I suggest conflating, moving the target, projecting, or just straight up lying
I believe in you 💪🏽
@ Lank 9:14 p.m.
DeleteGiving tougher runs to Corum, Mullings, etc. is fake news, huh?
On 3rd and 1-3 yards this year or 4th down, here are the stats:
Mullings: 7 carries, 48 yards, 1 TD out of 23 total attempts
Corum: 10 carries, 30 yards, 1 TD out of 96 total attempts
Edwards: 3 carries, 2 yards, 1 TD out of 60 attempts
So if Edwards is on equal footing to everyone else, why has he only received 3 short yardage carries this year while the other two main guys have 7 and 10? Mullings has fewer than half as many carries overall, but more short yardage attempts.
Any running back can produce at some point. Brandon Minor, Carlos Brown, Sam McGuffie, Vincent Smith, Carlos Brown, Ty Isaac, De'Veon Smith, Drake Johnson...there's a long list of backs who weren't even drafted who "produced at some point."
The stats are the stats. That's the nice thing about stats. You can tell us we're wrong until you're blue in the face...but Edwards isn't getting it done, in comparison to both his teammates and the rest of the conference, let alone the country.
@Thunder, Coach Hart tells us why in that Jansen clip
DeleteWe all know. Some people just like to argue
LOL. Nice strawman guys. Go back through the thread now. Here's how it went.
DeleteJE: "The coaches agree in giving the tougher runs to Blake, Mullings, Hall & LeonFranklin(!)"
Me: "You believe the coaches prefer Leon Franklin over Edwards. That says it all. This is pure fantasy."
JE: "When did I say the coaches prefer Leon Franklin?"
Me: [Quotes above]
You 3: Corum! Mullings! Short yardage.
You'll note - my challenge was about Franklin. I've not argued that short yardage carries generally go to Mullings and Corum. I'm aware. I don't argue with the facts. I've not said "Edwards is on equal footing to everyone else" in short yardage. Have fun with the strawman.
What I actually said was that I like Mullings in that role (really, anyone in that role) to keep wear off Corum (and Edwards for that matter too).
But since you brought it up:
Corum and Mullings have more short yardage attempts. And as you know, I value coaching decisions. That's meaningful to me. And I don't dispute the coaches decision here. In fact, and again, I've praised it.
But if you are more about results and small sample sizes and are a stats are stats guy: Thunder's stats "On 3rd and 1-3 yards this year" show 1 TD for each guy and Mullings in 7 carries, Corum: in 10 carries, and Edwards in 3 carries 1 TD. So I'm not sure this is really telling the story you want it to tell.
@Anon. Mullings was playing LB until Corum got hurt. He also fumbled in a handful of carries. I don't know what Edwards fumble rate is (I can't remember any TBH) but I'm sure it's better than Mullings. Mullings probably could have been the short yardage back last year if he was playing RB.
@JE. Cool emoji! So proud.
@Thunder. The stats are the stats. And nobody is arguing with them. You just only want to pay attention and reference them when you THINK they prove your point. If Toussaints YPC go down every year - you don't talk about that. If you like RB1, you don't want to talk about how RB2 has a better YPC. If you don't like RB1, you use YPC as proof that RB2 should be cutting into his time. Been here for over a decade and I've seen it again and again.
@Thunder
DeleteThere's a lot of dialogue lately (mostly trash with me and JE, some of substance with me and Anon) so I appreciate you drowning it out and ignoring it. That said, It's interesting to me that you choose to engage in arguing with a bunch of things I didn't say instead of what I did say. On the substance you are silent.
Will Edwards continue to "struggle" due to getting worse in the offseason or is it as easy as flipping a switch to restore his vision, patience, and chutzpah?
Can you explain why Fitz Toussaints YPC got worse every year and then he went on to play in the NFL?
@ Lank 11:59 a.m.
Delete"Will Edwards continue to "struggle" due to getting worse in the offseason or is it as easy as flipping a switch to restore his vision, patience, and chutzpah?"
I don't know how long he will struggle. I know he has been struggling. Some players get better as a season goes along. Some get worse. I don't think it's like flipping a switch. He was bad to start the year, and he has improved (slightly) in the past few games. Maybe he'll be fine in the next couple weeks.
"Can you explain why Fitz Toussaints YPC got worse every year and then he went on to play in the NFL?"
Toussaint was a good running back. The offensive line got significantly worse under Darrell Funk. Everything crashed, which is part of the reason why Hoke got fired. But the drop-off can be seen in basically all the running backs. The backs with double digit carries in 2013 averaged 3.5, 3.25, and 4.5 yards/carry. Everyone sucked...because of the line.
When Toussaint broke out in 2011, he was a good back. He averaged 5.57 yards/carry. The other backs with double digit attempts averaged 5.96, 6.42, 6.08, and 3.91 yards/carry. Everyone was pretty good...because of the line. But Toussaint was the most talented guy on the roster, so he was the starter.
The problem with any argument about 2023 is that the non-Edwards guys are still producing, such as Corum, Mullings, Hall, etc. The only guys who have come in and looked totally overmatched have been the walk-ons like Leon Franklin.
This isn't a situation like 2013 where the line sucks and everyone suffers. This is a situation where the line is still pretty good (not as good as 2021 or 2022, in my opinion) and everybody is producing...except Edwards.
@Thunder
DeleteRight - so we agree that YPC is, in some part, out of the RBs control. It's not 100% related to performance. There are other factors.
And thus, YPC is not necessarily a definitive indicator of individual performance.
When the OL, system, pass game, etc. are thriving all boats are lifted and RBs will collectively show better results. And vice versa. 2012-2014 is very different than 2021-2023. Funk era and Moore era, apples and oranges.
"Toussaint was the most talented guy on the roster, so he was the starter." Right. Trust the coaches are playing the guy who is best.
Toussaint didn't have the best YPC, but the coaches, justifiably, played him more and gave him more carries. We all agree, in this case, that the coaches decision means more than YPC stats. Likewise we agreed in 2021 and 2022 that the starter was the starter and the backup with a more impressive YPC wasn't necessarily better.
We don't always agree, but in these cases we did. We agreed to ignore the YPC. We trusted the coaches.
This doesn't always happen. It tends to happen more if we are happy and winning and less if we are unhappy and losing. But run game is only 1/5 of that equation.
I think we've talked about 2023 plenty and see things differently WRT to Edwards. I think the above points are relevant and instructive. I don't think all the RBs have identical opportunities in 2023. (Just like in 2022 not all RBs had identical opportunities. e.g., Mullings only played against tough defenses, and mostly was a short yardage back, so his YPC was very low.)
@ Lank 1:21 p.m.
Delete"Trust the coaches" is fine...except when it's not. Coaches can be wrong. Coaches can be too loyal. They can be too emotional. They can just flat-out miss. Etc.
I'm not saying the coaches are wrong at this point. At no point have I suggested that Donovan Edwards should be benched, dethroned, taken off scholarship, etc.
What I'm saying is...YOU are wrong. Edwards is indeed struggling. I've likened it to a baseball slump before. When a guy is going through a slump, you don't necessarily bench him. Sometimes you let him play through it. If his being in a slump starts to cost the team, you have to wonder if benching him might be a good idea.
So far that hasn't happened, because Michigan is whupping some bad teams. If Edwards stays in a slump, keeps getting carries, and Michigan loses to PSU by a touchdown...well, then I think this becomes a much bigger issue. You can't keep throwing Edwards out there all season to gain 2 yards/carry against Big Ten teams if Mullings/Hall can do better. At some point, the guy doing worse than everyone else needs to be demoted *if* it starts to cause issues with scoring/winning.
@Thunder
DeleteLOL. I know you are saying I am wrong. That is unambiguous.
What I'm saying to you is that the evidence you are presenting (YPC) is not definitive. You treat it like it is, but YPC is only seems to be definitive if it agrees with your opinions. If it doesn't it should be ignored. You agree it does not always tell the story, and you are selective about when you cart it out for proof.
I heard your slump analogy and gave a response. It is this - We're not in slump territory.
A slump in baseball takes more than 6 or 7 games. If a hitter goes 0 for 28 in those 6 game... well it might be a slump and a manager or hitting coach may need to take action to change approach, get head right, whatever... But if you know this is a 300 hitter career hitter and he happens to be 6/28 (.215) in those 6 or 7 games...that's just normal variance. It's expected.
If it's a HR hitter who hits 40 HR a year for 5 years in a row, it's not a big deal, at all, if he goes a couple series without hitting one. Nobody blinks about this, he just hasn't hit a HR lately. The manager and hitting coach are NOT going to recommend any action. They are NOT going to call it a slump. It is just normal performance even if the results are not there and they say "just keep going, don't stress anything" and "be yourself". If they say anything at all.
Donovan hasn't hit any homeruns yet. That's surprising - to everyone - given what we saw the last 3 games of the year and the 70+ carries he had there resulted in multiple home runs. But not surprising when you look back on his production as a backup earlier in 2022.
So, this is all a judgement call. The results aren't that happens sometimes, even without a slump. Blake just had a 4.0 YPC game against a bad team and nobody thinks he is slumping. Rightfully so.
Don's early season numbers are not far off last year's early season numbers. Don's numbers are not bad for a guy who hasn't broken a long run. Pull out every carry over 15 yards for our RBs and you'll be looking at numbers ranging from 3 to 4 YPC.
Don has not hit a HR yet but that does not mean we are watching a slump. He's still getting on base (plenty of positive runs). He's still playing good defense (still a weapon catching passes). He is not dejected (great attitude). He is a valuable team player. He just isn't making Sportscenters top plays. None of this is pointing to a slump.
But yes, I know you think YPC does.
I hear you on the risk of sticking to a player who is not playing well. That can cost you, especially in a close game. I agree.
DeleteBut if you try hard to ride the hot hand it can easily backfire. If Michigan had taken a Thunderous perspective on RB production in the 4th quarter of OSU they might have pulled Donovan Edwards for his modest results. His first 17 carries produced just 47 yards, less than 3 YPC. Bad results!
Maybe at that point a coach make a call "he just doesn't have it today, he's not producing, he's not playing well, we've given him plenty of chances, it's a slump" and move on to Mullings or Stokes or Gash or whoever. And if they do that -- then maybe we don't get 169 yards on Don's last 5 carries.
The coaches see these guys every day in practice. They know who is playing well and who isn't and the results aren't always going to line up with that. Trust the coaches over the results. Especially at RB where the guy is only responsible for a piece of the results (in my view a small piece, in your view a large piece, but regardless not the whole thing).
So here is what I will say - if the coaches decide to bench Donovan Edwards I will eat crow and admit I was wrong. That he got worse in the offseason. That his "struggles" are due to him, individually, slumping and not just random noise.
If the coaches stick with him, so will I. They have. There is no indication they won't. My Don-concern level is at zero.
Lank is lying. He took my quote - based off Harbaugh & Hart's own comments & what we've seen in the games - and turned it into "You believe the coaches prefer Leon Franklin over Edwards" ... he's desperate
DeleteLank is also dodging ... Edwards says he's had a slow start. Edwards admits to being discourgaed. Edwards admits to being worried. Edwards admits to more than almost anything that's been written about him here
Coach Harbaugh - known for hyperbole, gushes over other RBs grittiness, but limits compliments of Edwards to athleticism & pass catching
Coach Hart goes on & on about the others in short yardage, limits comments on Edwards in that capacity as "okay," then compliments his potential & pass catching. He also confirms that Edwards was pressing too much until Nebraska trying to make the big play ... just like many here have said
*also, regarding baseball comparisons for slumps, the equivalent would not be seven games, it'd be more than half a season
Everyone sees (and hears) it, except the one who loves to argue. Now, he wasn't to make the argument about Edwards being benched, which no one has suggested. Desperate!
@JE. It's a direct quote. I didn't make it up. I'm not dodging - I'm tackling the issue head on. Edwards slow start (production) is not due to his poor play (performance).
DeleteNeither he nor his coaches believe there is a performance issue. Nobody here thinks there is any lasting problem. Even those who see a problem admit it's fleeting. I'm taking it a step further - it doesn't exist.
You're REACHING reading into what you want to read into and hearing what you want to hear just like when you see what you want to see. Edwards is unfazed and resolute despite modest production (that everyone acknowledges) to date. As he should be. Anybody who heard that interview and comes away with negatives isn't listening.
Thanks for responding to every post I make but instead of lying and engaging in further insults you can just bow out and let people who want to have a civil and informed discussion do that. (hahaha I know that's not happening, just wanted to acknowledge that's always an option for you).
And no 60 carries, isn't half a season worth. Edwards had more than that in the last 3 games of last season. That wasn't half a season either. At best it's something like 60 at-bats but even that's a stretch.
My Don-level concern is zero in the sense that I believe he is what he is - a fast-in-a-straight-line RB with just decent vision and short area quickness. A guy who is great in space and not all that great at turning one yard into three. If Corum goes down I will be concerned. I feel justified in that concern given the results in the OSU and TCU games.
Delete@anon
DeleteI would argue if you watch the Purdue and TCU games again you'd see a back with excellent vision and quickness. A lot of turning 1 yard or less into into 3 yards or more in these games.
https://youtu.be/GPsx-flAnKA?feature=shared&t=801
It was not that long ago that I was arguing with people saying he'd run for 1000 yards and get as many touches as corum and be in for half the offenses snaps.
http://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2023/08/2023-season-countdown-13-donovan-edwards.html
The OSU and TCU games showed that our offensive performance did not suffer at all without Corum.
@Lank 430 likes to talk about projecting ... while projecting
DeleteWas I lying about the 4Q TD? Or does the video show that the OL pushed into the EZ, and Edwards (feet still) leaned into them? It's on the tape
Was I lying that Ben Hall's 4Q carries against a defeated Hoosier D aren't enough to conclude he's ready for RB2 this year? That's an opinion, but one that fits Lank's own assertion on sample size
Was I lying about Edwards, when he said he was discouraged (3x), worried, or that he questioned himself? Did I make up Edwards calling his slow start a low point? Nope, it's on the audio
Did I lie about JH complimenting the other runner's on ball security & grinding, while limiting Edwards talk to pass catching? No, that's on audio
Was I lying on Hart calling Edwards "okay" when asked, and then went on about athleticism & playmaking as a pass catcher? On audio too
Was I lying that Hart says Edwards start was the result of him pressing too hard, trying to make something happen? On audio, same link
Thunder provided data on short yardage carries & results, I referenced that AND the coaches own statements to conclude that they have - IN THAT SCENARIO - a preference. Lank says the same "What I actually said was that I like Mullings in that role (really, anyone in that role) to keep wear off Corum (and Edwards for that matter too)"
*not even Lank agrees with Lank ... that's no lie either
The coaches are not negative on Edwards, and are not "worried" about Edwards. Nor am I. He's a special talent, and has incredible abilities in space. But what they said (and didn't say) lines up with what I say: we've had & have some bruising between the Tackles RBs in the Harbaugh era. Edwards is elite as an athlete, but not necessarily in that mold. Not a bad thing, not a criticism
Even in your purdont highlights, every defender with more than a hand on Edwards brought him down. Given space, he takes off. Watch the video! The closest is the TD, where #23 gets a hand on him, then arm, and then into the EZ they fall. #1 is blocked by Anthny, & #10 is not involved. Neither touch him. Great play, but even this highlight lacks the physicality we've seen just this year from Corum, Mullings, Hall or even tiny Simaj Morgan*
*no, I am not saying the coaches want Morgan at RB 😂
@ Lank 3:07 p.m.
DeleteYou continue to ignore what I'm saying, so I'm not sure why I'm even trying.
YPC isn't definitive by itself. Context matters. I've been saying that for years. 3.5 YPC in 2013 is not the same as 3.5 YPC in 2023 for Michigan. One was behind an OL that was terrible and everyone sucked. One is behind an OL that is good and everyone is good...except for Donovan Edwards.
You're not understanding the slump thing, and I guess you never will. Half a season in baseball is 81 games. Half a season in football is 6 games. We're past the halfway point of the year, and Edwards hasn't made one noteworthy, exciting, highlight-reel, or explosive play in the running game.
Edwards isn't playing well. It can be seen by watching him, and it can be seen in the stats. If you choose not to see it because 11 months ago you saw him break off a big run against Ohio State, cool.
@ Lank
DeleteI asked if/when you would admit Edwards is struggling, and you came up with this specific scenario:
"OTOH, If I got my wish and Corum was load managed (rested for a full game) and Edwards ran the ball 20 times+ against Indiana and if he was still putting up 3 YPC against Indiana while mulling got 10-20 carries and produced more than 5 YPC."
So basically, you're never going to admit Edwards is struggling unless you get your perfect scenario where...
a) the starter (Corum) sits out
b) Edwards gets 20+ carries and sucks
c) Mullings gets 10-20 carries and does well
Meanwhile, only one Michigan back (Corum) has 20+ carries in a game this year, and that was just 21 against Rutgers. So you basically said that you're never going to change your mind, even if every statistic and eye test points to what I've been saying. You created an unrealistic scenario that depends on a bunch of random, unrelated things going just right.
But I'm going to throw you a bone and say I will agree with you that Edwards is just fine IF...
1. Saturday is a full moon
2. My right shoulder feels better after a little strain from weightlifting
3. I have more than half a tank of gas in my car at any point on Saturday
4. Edwards averages between 6.6-6.8 yards per carry against MSU
5. La'Darius Henderson completes a double reverse flea flicker pass to Trente Jones wearing his eligible #93 jersey
@Thunder
DeleteI feel like I've responded. I don't disagree with the facts of DE's lower YPC relative to the team. Where I disagree is the assumption that this is definitive in the same way that 2013 vs 2023 is different.
These backs have NOT all been getting equivalent opportunity. I've given the example of last year. DE had higher YPC than BC. DE averaged over 7 ypc and BC averaged under 6. Both had over 140 carries. The difference was NOT because DE was better or because BC was struggling. DE had a different set of opportunities - that on paper were HARDER than the opportunities BC had. But BC was better.
How can I say that. 3 reasons. 1 - the coaches gave the vast majority of work to BC. They see them in practice everyday. They did the same thing in 2021 too. 2 - EPA/play says BC was better. 3 - BC's success rate was better 4 - PFF says BC was better
So over a FULL season of 14 games, with 2 RBs getting chances to be primary ball carriers, YPC STILL didn't give us the right answer. DE's YPC was almost 50% better than the rest of our RBs, and 20% better than BC who was hailed as a Heisman contender, but DE was NOT the better player.
So here you are after a half season saying the intra-team player YPC comparisons are meaningful and here I am saying the intra-player YPC comparisons tell you the wrong thing with more than twice as much data.*
I'll give you another misleading 2022 example. Mullings averaged 2.2 YPC in large part because he was asked get 1 or 2 yards on most of his carries. He has shown much more this year and, per you, he has shown more in the past (in HS). So that's misleading too. Mullings probably isn't that much worse than CJ Stokes, Isiah Gas, Tavierre Dunlop, or Danny Hughes. But a FULL SEASON of stats says he is.
The half season thing is something you can repeat again and again but it won't change the fundamental variance issue. This is football - you don't get as much volume, so the variance can last through a full year. Just like it did with DE last year. Even through 140 carries.
DE wasn't, isn't, and won't ever be a 7 YPC caliber RB who is superior to BC. Mullings is better than a 2 YPC caliber RB. But the stats are the stats for 2022. I'm not arguing with the stats, I'm arguing with the interpretation of them. And I did it before the season started. I'm the one who was trying to tamp down DE expectations in the countdown. Perhaps that's why I'm not as disappointed as you all...
Bottomline - you get bad narratives even after a FULL SEASON. They are wrong. DE is not as good as BC. He was never going to get as many carries as healthy BC. Because he is not as good.
So if FULL season narratives can be wrong, imagine how wrong the narratives can be in HALF of that, without the benefit of two different starters getting to take a turn.
" Context matters." Yes - it does. And the context here is that we see DE do well in the pass game and we've seen DE do well in the run game - in 2021 as well as 2022. So the "struggles" that you see might not be real, regardless of transitive stat comparisons. There's a lot more to context than looking at YPC.
*I know you, Thunder, did not put DE above BC but you did predict DE would have 1000 yards. I argued the point. You think DE got worse. I think DE is the same and you just put too much stock in 7 YPC just like you are now putting too much stock in 3 YPC.
You can see 2 YPC go to 15 YPC within the same game! DE vs TCU did that. Same guy, same game, and yet. And you can see 7 YPC go to 3 YPC in a half season for sure. Same guy.
@Thunder
Delete"You created an unrealistic scenario that depends on a bunch of random, unrelated things going just right."
Is it really that crazy or random to think DE could get 20 carries in a game? That BC might get dinged or pulled early?
Edwards has had 14, 15, and 16 carry games as a backup before. I don't think it's crazy to imagine him getting 20. Nor do I think it's crazy for BC to miss a game.
You are the one who predicted 1000 yard season. I don't know how you thought he was going to get there if he didn't 20 carries in a game at some point. Maybe you want to clarify your assumption there.
@ Lank 12:24 p.m.
Delete"Is it really that crazy or random to think DE could get 20 carries in a game? That BC might get dinged or pulled early?"
It's kind of crazy/random to think Corum would get dinged/sit out the Indiana game specifically when there were zero rumors of him getting rested or injured. So yes, it's kind of crazy/random to think Edwards would get 20 carries, because he has literally never received 20 carries unless Corum has been out for an entire game, and Corum is healthy.
"You are the one who predicted 1000 yard season. I don't know how you thought he was going to get there if he didn't 20 carries in a game at some point. Maybe you want to clarify your assumption there."
You keep going back to the 1000 yard thing, but it's irrelevant at this point. My predictions are there for everyone to see, so I'm not shying away from it. He's not going to get to 1000 yards unless something crazy happens. It is what it is.
He was at 991 yards last year. Yes, that was with Corum going down at the end of the year, but it's reasonable to believe that Corum and Edwards would have split carries a little more this year - both to reward Edwards and to save the tread on Corum's tires. He could have reasonably reached 1,000 yards on 150 carries or so with better production.
Michigan is also running 8-10 fewer plays a game this year with the clock rules, so I think that's a factor in some of the total yards. I mean, it's definitely a factor. There's no getting around it. That's something I didn't really take into consideration. I didn't think that rule change would cut out as many plays as it has.
The guy has 60 carries, and if he were going at 6 yards/carry, he would be at 360 yards or so by now, halfway through the year. He would probably have MORE carries if he were playing well, and with the soft schedule Michigan has played, he might be averaging 7 or 8 yards/carry. And no, that's not unrealistic, because he was at or near that level as a freshman and a sophomore.
Just to reiterate...it wasn't outlandish to prediction 1,000 yards. He was literally 9 yards away from that last season. There was probably a holding call at some point that took 9 yards away from him. Was I wrong? Yeah, it seems so. But it was realistic because it was 1-2 carries (according to YPC) away from happening.
Delete@ Lank
Delete"This is football - you don't get as much volume, so the variance can last through a full year."
This is false. Like, it's not impossible, but it's so rare that it might as well be. There's almost no way that a guy who's a 5-star running back, who averaged over 7.0 yards/carry last year, who has a good offensive line...is going to average 3.28 yards/carry for an entire year when every other running back does significantly better than that. It just doesn't happen. That falls outside of the realm of "normal variance."
J.J. McCarthy was one of the top few quarterbacks in the Big Ten last year. If he was suddenly the worst starting QB in the Big Ten this year, we wouldn't be saying, "Yeah, well, shit happens sometimes. It's normal statistical variance."
Mason Graham was a good DT last year. If he was suddenly getting dumped on his ass all the time as a sophomore, we would be saying, "What happened to Mason Graham? Is he injured? Did he put on too much weight in the off-season? Something ain't right."
For some reason with Donovan Edwards, you're letting it slide and saying "No big deal."
@Thunder
DeleteI'm not saying the prediction was outlandish but that I disagreed with it. Within the prediction was an assumption that either a) DE would increase YPC, b) DE would take away substantial workload from BC, or c) BC would get hurt again and miss time again.
Is it outlandish to predict c) - no, not really, but I don't think that is what you were saying.
Is it outlandish to predict b) - no, not really, but the 2022 status quo (BC getting way more work than DE) was pretty much dismissed and the degree to which there would anything close to a 50/50 split in work was considered more likely. It's been closer to 2022 than 50/50.
It would have been, IMO, outlandish to predict c.
I don't think you got into that level of detail. Nor did you need to, but to me, none of those were particularly likely.
Sorry - to clarify. A (higher YPC) is outlandish to me. 7 YPC was an outlier based on a too small sample size (yes 140 carries was still too small) that was not sustainable.
Delete"There's almost no way that a guy who's a 5-star running back, who averaged over 7.0 yards/carry last year, who has a good offensive line...is going to average 3.28 yards/carry for an entire year when every other running back does significantly better than that. "
DeleteYeah I agree Thunder. This is kind of my point. You're saying its a thing that happened in the offseason. I'm saying that Edwards will not average 3.3 YPC this season. That the YPC number is misleading and it will revert to a mean that we have seen throughout DEs career.
"For some reason with Donovan Edwards, you're letting it slide and saying "No big deal.""
DeleteYes and I'll tell you why.
1) Donovan Edwards has 60 carries on the year. JJ McCarthy has 142 pass attempts. Mason Graham has at least 150 snaps.
So right there you have about double the sample size. We saw what happens with Donovan when you get him twice as many carries last year when he ALSO got off to a relatively slow start in his first X games, compared to how he finished in his last 3 games.
2) The math says Michigan have something like 5x greater variance for game to game comparison in yards per pass vs yards per rush. Even if we're ignoring issue 1 entirely.
I'll skip Edwards for a second and just talk about Blake Edwards who has 96 carries on the year (somewhat mitigating the sample size difference issue noted above.)
Blake's game-to-game YPC average is 6.0. But the game-to-game variance on the number is 3. There isn't a lot of consistency in what Blake will produce from a YPC perspective from game to game. The variance is 50% of the average. blake might run for 4YPC or he might run for 8 YPC. It just depends.
Meanwhile JJ is averaging 11 YPA without much change in a range between 9 to 13 YPA. His variance is 1.3 so more like 10% of his average. A much tighter range.
3) YPA credit for a pass isn't 100% on the QB but it's a big chunk of it. If the OL fails the QB is sacked but YPA is unaffected. he might throw it away, release quick, or throw on the move - pressure affects QBs (see Gardner, Devin), but not in the same way that getting buried behind the LOS on a carry affects the RB. The success of a run play is MOSTLY on other guys, outside of a RB's control. The success of pass play is MOSTLY on the QB (although definitely not entirely).
This is why NFL QBs get paid 10x more than NFL RBs. It's not because they pass 60% in the NFL and 45% in College. It's because QBs have way more impact on the game and that's true even comparing 1 run play to 1 pass play.
4) Edwards isn't "suddenly getting dumped on his ass all the time". Like at all. He just hasn't broken any long runs. That's not the same thing, at all. This is missing the forest for the trees.
The better equivalent would be claiming Makari Paige sucks now because he got an INT and a sack last year and this year he has zero of either. Or Mike Sainristil is falling off because he had 38 tackles last year and only has 9 through half a season. The stats are the stats!
"kind of crazy/random to think Corum would get dinged/sit out the Indiana game specifically when there were zero rumors of him getting rested or injured."
DeleteLOL. I did not think that. Nor did I predict that.
It was a hypothetical scenario when you asked "what would change your mind". It was nothing specifically about Indiana. Come on man.
There were 7 running backs in the country last year who averaged 7.0 yards/carry last year (and an 8th, former Michigan RB Zach Charbonnet, was pretty darn close at 6.97 YPC).
DeletePardon the limitations of my search (blame CFBstats!), but the only two running backs with 144+ carries last year but below 4.0 YPC were UCF's Isaiah Bowser (3.9) and Oklahoma State's Dominic Richardson (3.64).
It's possible to average 7.08 YPC for an entire season. It's also possible to average 3.28 YPC...but that's, like, really bad.
"You keep going back to the 1000 yard thing, but it's irrelevant at this point. My predictions are there for everyone to see, so I'm not shying away from it. He's not going to get to 1000 yards unless something crazy happens. It is what it is."
DeleteAgain - the point isn't to criticize the prediction. The point is to disagree the interpretation of YPC. You, and many others, saw a 7 YPC guy and said "hey that's even better than BC" and that DE would cut into BEs workload because he was so awesome. And his production was like BCs because he was similarly as good as BC.
I thought the coaches choice was more instructive. Maybe they were going to change their minds from 2022 to 2023, but I was in wait-and-see mode.
The part that is still relevant, regardless of any predictions wrong or right, is how one interprets YPC.
"It's possible to average 7.08 YPC for an entire season. It's also possible to average 3.28 YPC...but that's, like, really bad."
DeleteYes it's possible and it's also unlikely...especially for Donovan Edwards!
Here is where I point out that Edwards has NOT averaged 3.3 YPC for a whole season. Not once!
And I know you don't think he will do that in 2023. So what is the point of saying this?
"Pardon the limitations of my search (blame CFBstats!), but the only two running backs with 144+ carries last year but below 4.0 YPC "
DeleteMichigan is more than half way through the season and Edwards has 60 carries. With OSU and PSU and (hopefully) playoff teams on the schedule where BC is likely to carry a bigger burden and his backups (including Edwards) are likely to carry a smaller workload.
In other words, if BC stays healthy, Edwards probably isn't getting 120 carries. Let alone 144+. Not to mention the 180-240 it would probably take him to get to 1,000 yards.
He won't make your list. Not in a half season, not even in a full season. he doesn't have enough carries to qualify!
NOBODY was projecting Edwards to get LESS workload this year than last year but that's a distinct possibility. THAT could be a better argument for Edwards getting worse in the offseason than his YPC, except that the main driver in Edwards reduced projected workload has nothing whatsoever to do with performance - it's explained entirely by Blake Corum missing zero games.
Remember that Edwards got more than half of his carries last year in the final 3 games. So his workload is very much on track with last years workload -- which tells you the coaching staff isn't seeing the kind of dropoff in performance that would warrant a dropoff in usage.
So again, what are we talking about when we compare a guy with 60 carries to guys with a minimum of 144. Very few guys with over 144 carries average fewer than 4 YPC but many many with 60 carries do. Because of variance. Because that's just how it is.
Blake Corum averaged 3.0 YPC over an entire season (26 carries) and I told you not to doubt the hype on him based on the YPC number.
"I've never seen so much off-season hype for a running back who averaged 2.96 yards per carry the previous season, but that's where we are as Michigan fans, hoping for players to come out of nowhere and be stars"
That was YPC number for a whole season. You took it at face value and didn't differentiate between a 250 yard carry season. A season isn't a season. It can mean 25 carries or 250 - very different things. A half season is not a full season also.
The volume matters and I'm trying to tell you why we can dismiss 25 carries, 60 carries, or even 140 carries as 'off' or 'misleading' for any number of reasons. It's not definitive.
@ Lank 3:02 p.m.
DeleteI'm going to reference an argument we had last year about workload. I kept complaining that Corum was getting 30-ish carries in games when he didn't need 30 carries because I was afraid he was going to get hurt. Michigan kept giving him 30 carries...and he got hurt! He got 30ish carries in blowout wins, including a 41-17 win over PSU, a 29-7 win over MSU, and a 34-3 win over Nebraska.
This year Michigan is blowing out similar teams, and the coaches aren't giving Corum more than 21 carries. Why? Presumably because they want to keep him healthy, which would seem to open things up for Edwards to get more carries...which is why I projected an uptick in carries for Edwards.
Corum is getting fewer carries. Edwards is getting more. The only difference is that Edwards isn't doing anything with his carries.
@ Lank 3:23 p.m.
DeleteI think I've covered this from pretty much every angle. Guys with more carries, guys with fewer carries, starters, backups, etc. You keep saying this is normal variance, but it's actually not. This is abnormal.
Let me try this from a different angle:
If you want to make your case that this is "normal variance," then please show me a case of other standout running backs who have a great season and then have a monumental drop-off the next year while very little else changes. Michigan has the same head coach, the same OL coach, the same run game coordinator, the same head coach, the same QB, the same guy ahead of him. (Things that have changed include replacing the LT, C, and TE and losing Ronnie Bell at WR, but that's not much in the grand scheme of things.)
Again, this type of thing hasn't happened at Michigan since Ricky Powers in the early 1990s. I don't know all the details of what went on at that time, but I do know that Tyrone Wheatley basically usurped the starting RB role and put Powers on the back burner. So that's a pretty serious shakeup.
@ Lank 3:06 p.m.
Delete"And I know you don't think he will do that in 2023. So what is the point of saying this?"
I don't know what Edwards will do. He's struggling against MAC and bottom feeder Big Ten teams. It's within the realm of possibility that he will finish at 3.3 yards/carry, and even a slight uptick to 3.5 or 3.7 or 3.9 YPC doesn't negate everything I've said.
We'll see in December or January or whatever where he ends up. Only time will tell.
@Thunder 4:15
DeleteI don’t remember arguing with you about limiting Corum’s workload. I agree 100%. I’ve been critical of Harbaugh’s approach to injury management for many years and this was one example. I’m all for rotating backs more. I have no argument and don’t know what point you are making.
“Corum is getting fewer carries. Edwards is getting more.”
The first part is true. The second is not. Edwards has 60 carries in 7 games this year vs 68 in 7 games last year. Edwards workload has decreased as well. Not by much, granted, not like Corum’s has decreased, but I would call it close to neutral.
@Thunder 4:30
I disagree with your premise about a monumental drop-off. I don’t know exactly what you are looking for but you can look at variance any number of ways:
play to play – in 4th Q of Minnesota Mullings ran for 23 yards and -1 on back to back plays
game to game – Hassan Haskins went from 2.5 ypc against Wisc to 5.9 ypc against Nebraska in 6 days
season to season – Fitz Toussaint went from 5.6 ypc in 2011 to 4.0 ypc in 2012
within a season - Corum had 7.3 YPC in 1 score games vs 4.6 YPC in 2 score games in 2022
Michigan has the same head coach, OC, OL coach, and QB in 2011 and 2012
I gave you the math above for game to game variance from blake right now.
I could go series to series if you want too, but I think we know it wouldn't be hard to do.
Variance is real Thunder. You see it literally every week, play to play, drive to drive.
“his type of thing hasn't happened at Michigan since Ricky Powers”
Uhhh what type of thing?
Ricky Powers YPC going from 4.8 to 3.6 and then him going on to play in the NFL? I think that’s another example supporting my argument to not worry about YPC. He went from 200+ carries to 60 something carries. I must be missing your point.
I remember Powers, and Vaughn, and Wheatley. I remember my first fav Jaimie Morris. I watched them all and then watched their NFL careers do what they did. Certainly very influential in my RBs don't matter perspective because meanwhile the OLmen for those guys were racking up Pro Bowls and big contracts.
@Thunder 4:34
“ It's within the realm of possibility that he will finish at 3.3 yards/carry?”
Do you actually believe this? There’s no “only time will tell” I will tell you right now that barring injury there is a <1% probability that Edwards finishes at 3.3 ypc.
Do you think he will finish below 4.0 ypc on the year? It’s theoretically possible but I will make any wager around that doesn’t happen.
Here is my prediction: Donovan Edwards will run for 5.8 ypc for the rest of the year. This is his average over 235 career carries. That’s a big enough sample size to be meaningful.
I don't know how many carries that is but with the post-season likely I would be willing to guess it will be more than 60 so that's easily covering 4 YPC on the season.
Do you care to make a counter prediction? Consider it a mulligan on the 1K prediction from the countdown.
I actually argued to sit Corum entirely against Illinois. That was a game we could afford to lose and, with an OSU victory, still make the playoff. It was more valuable in my head to have Corum for OSU than to beat Illinois.
DeleteI was dead wrong though. Losing Corum didn't hurt one bit. It's almost as though...
@ Lank 8:58 p.m.
DeleteEdwards had 43 carries through the first seven games last year. He has 60 this year.
*sigh*
I asked for an example of a guy showing this big of a drop-off, and you gave me Mullings running for 23 yards and then -1 on his next carry.
I give up.
@Thunder
DeleteI gave you Fitz. 2011 to 2012. Same HC, OC, etc.
I didn't realize you were counting the two games that Edwards didn't play in because he was unavailable due to injury (UConn and Maryland). I ignored those for obvious reason. I did include Hawaii even though he left that game with an injury after just 3 carries.
If you want to ignore injuries to say Edwards is used more this year than last OK -- you are technically correct. He playing in fewer games last year through 10/19 (5) than he has played in this year through 10/19 (7).
He is averaging 8.6 carries this year and last year through 10/9 he averaged...8.6 carries a game.
Last year Edwards, with multiple games missed due to injury, Edwards got to 140 carries. This year, fully healthy, Edwards is on pace for 120 carries. Less than last year.
Lank, I don't understand why you're saying that Corum's absence didn't matter against OSU or TCU. We had to use CJ Stokes against OSU and he tripped over grass and missed a massive cutback. We had to use Mullings against TCU and he fumbled on the one. How in the world is that an indication that Corum's absense didn't matter? We were losing to OSU at the half. We lost to TCU. Of course his absence mattered a great deal.
Delete@Anon
DeleteIt's the results. We put up 45 points and had over 500 yards of offense against both of them and the running game was highly successful. Edwards was not just as productive as Corum, he was MORE productive.
Could it have been better with Corum? Absolutely maybe! I'm looking back on the other 11 games of the season and the only time we hit those kind of offensive numbers was PSU and cupcakes.
The assumption that Corum playing means no fumble by Mullings is easy to counter with the fact that Corum fumbled against Georgia.
The assumption that we wouldn't have been losing to OSU at halftime if we had Corum is easy to count with the fact that we were losing to Illinois and Rutgers at halftime with Corum.
We beat OSU handily without Corum (note we also beat them when Corum was banged up the year before) and yes, we lost to TCU but what exactly did you expect Corum to do to stop us from giving up 51 points? With Corum we lost to Georgia and MSU.
So I would say the onus is on you to prove that Corum would have changed the outcome rather than the other way around.
I feel like I've already proven that. In both of those games Michigan gave critical carries to guys who would not have received those carries if Corum was around. Those carries did not go well. If you want to argue that Corum could have also tripped on grass, or that Corum could have also fumbled from the one - OK, I guess. But it's a pretty simple equation in my mind. You're basically saying "the offense was effective and scored points, therefore the RB being out didn't matter." That's flawed logic. The offense would have been better if our starting RB received those carries instead of our 3rd / 4th string RB. In close games against good opponents, every play matters and so that incremental upgrade in talent and production is highly critical.
DeleteStokes and Gash got critical snaps when Corum WAS around. Right? So having Corum doesn't mean those guys don't play at all. They barely did without him either.
DeleteCorum potentially fumbling isn't a hypothetical possibility. It happens. He has fumbled before, multiple times, and he has done it in critical games (Georgia, MSU, Illinois). Fumbles are rare events so by no means am I saying Corum was going to fumble for sure again TCU but....fumbles are random events. Collectively, as a whole, our RBs will sometimes and fumble and so it's not crazy to see them fumble once in the TCU game and we definitely can't assume bad things just won't happen if Corum is around because we have seen those bad things happen when Corum is around.
"The offense would have been better if our starting RB received those carries instead of our 3rd / 4th string RB."
This is speculation. Corum is better but those guys barely played and the only change in the game wouldn't have been replacing the worst carries of the game with better carries by a better player. That's an illogical fantasy.
Kaleel Mullings played all of 9 snaps against TCU. Edwards played 74. Most of those were short yardage snaps and guess what -- Kaleel Mullings is playing in short yardage snaps now, instead of Blake Corum. I don't think the coaches see a big drop off like you do.
Stokes played meaningful downs in multiple other games during the season, not just OSU. He didn't play a lot, 4 snaps against, so imagining Corum would be making a huge impact there is pretty dubious. Stokes had 2 carries for 5 yards and Corum might have had 2 for 8 or 9 or 12. Change in OSU outcomes is negligible.
We didn't miss Corum because Edwards stepped in. You hanging your hat on Corum doing better - when Edwards played great, is dubious. It's completely illogical to just remove the 2 or 3 worst plays of the game. You can just as easily remove the 2 or 3 best plays of the game and say Corum wouldn't have done what Edwards did. So delete those 60+ yard runs because Corum just wouldn't do that.
The best case you have is the PSU game where we ran for over 400 yards with both Corum and Edwards healthy. PSU game our offense scored...41 points. Less than against OSU and TCU. Many other games with Corum we produced far less offense than we produced without Corum against Purdue, OSU, annd TCU.
Corum is the best RB we had and the best RB we have, but you can't just say hypothetically we would have beaten TCU with him without also acknowledging hypothetically we would have lost to OSU with him.
It's unknowable. What isn't is the fact that our run game and our offense did not seem to produce any less against OSU/Purdue/TCU than they did in previous games. Moreover, while the RUN GAME suffered, the offense overall did not produce any less without Corum in the 2nd half of Illinois than with him.
This isn't just a Corum thing because it goes for Edwards too. He missed multiple games where the offense kept right on going without him. However, our worst offensive game of the year was Illinois where Corum was there and Edwards wasn't, so if anything you can argue his absence was more impactful.
I wouldn't make this argument, I'm just saying. Missing a RB does not seem to affect the offensive outcomes at all. Be it Corum or Edwards. Our second worst offensive game of last year was Iowa - and both were healthy.
All of this points to RBs not having the impact that they are assumed to have in narratives. And I could bring up a lot of other examples that fall in line with this perspective -- including PSU's supposedly elite RBs not making much difference in yesterday's OSU game and OSU's RBs running for 2.5 YPC not making much difference in that game's outcome either. People will say it's only true in the NFL but college is the same thing.
@Anon
DeleteI appreciate the point you are making and a lot of folks will agree with you but I'm trying to say it doesn't hold up to scrutiny. The assertions of "look at this bad thing" and "bad thing gone with Corum" don't hold up.
To look at the totality of Edwards-led production in those last 3 games and say we would have done better with Corum-led production isn't backed by evidence, especially since 2 of the 3 where playoff caliber teams.
Bad things happen sometimes and they happen in games Corums plays in too. We don't just get to assume mistake free football. That doesn't hold up.
Here are some stats with both RBs vs. only 1 RB (either Corum OR Edwards, but not both)*:
DeleteOffensive Yards Per Play:
5.9 YPP with both
6.9 YPP with only 1
Offense was NOT hindered by not having both Edwards and Corum around.
Rush Yards Per Play:
5.9 YPC with both
5.6 YPC with only 1
Yards per carry DID go down if both backs weren't available.
Games with Edwards Only:
7.6 YPP
5.9 YPC
The 3 games Edwards played by himself had better offensive production AND better YPC than Corum games.
------------------------------
So there is some STATS that shows that you that offensive outcomes were not hindered by losing Corum. And, while YPC did tick down slightly when we didn't have both RBs available (-0.3 YPC) that was offset by better passing (+1.0 YPP overall).
Which makes sense if you hypothesize that the coaching staff didn't trust JJ as much as they could have (and have this season.)
*note: The 3 nonconference cupcakes were ignored.
"You have to be able to make things happen with your arm to be at the tip-top of this list, so that excludes Denard."
ReplyDeleteNo. I'm not gonna take the bait. Although I'm looking at it real hard ... twitching a little bit maybe, I'm just not gonna do it. Going out for a walk in the cold wind instead.
Roanman
LOL. Nice restraint.
DeleteThis seems like a good place to point out UFR scores for Corum and Edwards in the last 3 games.
ReplyDeleteMinnesota: Corum +3 Edwards +3.5
Nebraska: Corum +2.5 Edwards +5.5
Indiana: Corum +2.5 Edwards +0.5
-----------------------
3 Game Total: Corum 8 Edwards 9.5
This is with Corum getting far more touches too. By this measure Edwards is not struggling at all (unless you also think Corum is struggling that is).
Yes - The first 4 games were a very different story - Brian Cook agrees with your takes on Edwards performance and had a massive difference in Rutgers and Bowling Green. Edwards was ahead only for the ECU game prior to the last few weeks.
But I still have to ask if this performance difference is really the equivalent of one guy falling on his face through half a season? OR if his performance is one that is reasonable in comparison to the best RB in the Big Ten if not the nation.
The latter would seem to indicate that this is pretty much just...fine? OK? Not actually a problem? That's what Edwards thinks. That's what the coaches think.
Brian Cook on our RBs:
ReplyDelete- RB grading is good, but YPC doesn't match
- Not a great game (Indiana)
- Edwards, only one negative but no positive
- Corum still not at 2022 form
It's not just the numbers. Even for Cook, it's obvious in watching the game. That part is critical to the conversation
https://youtu.be/jfJ6cJpEKug
Yes, as covered above Brian agrees with the Edwards is struggling takes. He also thinks Corum has struggled and got worse.
DeleteHis grading doesn't back it up but he still thinks it.
My question is this: does it make any sense that Corum and Edwards would both just...get worse...in the same offseason?
A Hesiman contender one year, and a guy who replaces him to rip off 600 yards at over 7 ypc as a starter and got projected to first round of the NFL draft. Both these guys just suddenly....got worse?
It's certainly possible. But, does it make any actual sense to anyone that two absolutely elite RBs would suddenly look mortal all because they got worse?
It doesn't does it?
Who said either got worse? Is this part of the lie, to shift your argument ... your strawman?
DeleteMissing cuts. Not trusting injured knees. Pressing. Trying to force the big play. Not trusting vision. Discouraged. Worried. Not taking what the blocks offer ...
These are things we've read & heard from players, coaches & MGo. I do not recall any of them saying BC & DE suddenly got worse
The stats, MGo Grades & PFF all back these statements. But there's always internet guy, who likes to argue
"Stokes played meaningful downs in multiple other games during the season" When? He got a shot against ohio, and 'tripped 9ver grass' ... Illinois, when BOTH Corum & Edwards were injured? How'd that go?
"Moreover, while the RUN GAME suffered, the offense overall did not produce any less without Corum in the 2nd half of Illinois than with him"
You mean, playing the backups made the run game suffer, but the starting RB doesn't matter ... this is trolling via essay, but still trolling
You're splitting hairs between playing worse consistently and getting worse between 2022 and 2023. Interesting because when Corum and Edwards played better in 2022 you insisted it was because they got better in the offseason. You argued Corum got stronger and Edwards worked on his balance.
DeleteStokes got meaningful carries against Illinois, Nebraska, and Maryland.
Corum played half of Illinois. It went better in the second half without him than the first half with him. You know if you look at points and things like that.
Keep the insults coming JE. The only troll here is you. Every time.
YOU are the one claiming the narrative is that they got worse. Fact is, no one of significance is saying it. Probably conflating twitterbot hate w/reality
DeleteAre you saying that Corum did NOT commit himself in the weight room? Are you saying that the coaches DON'T praise him for such work ethic? Improvements don't just happen Lank; there's no equity office in Schemmy Hall handing out Madden ratings improvements. These kids have to put in work, and Ben Herbert is a very key part of that improvement, your feelings be d@mned
Stokes is what we got stuck with against Illinois, w/both good RBs injured. As you say, the run game suffered
Stokes carries against Nebraska came after we were up two TDs
Stokes got ONE carry against Maryland, a fumble ... the lies always start with misleading statements
@JE
Deletezzzzzz
Thunder said Edwards played worse because he got worse in the offseason. Cook said they aren't playing as well. He theorized the offseason was part of it.
I told no lies. You adding detail doesn't change anything.
Mullings got a handful of snaps against TCU. Stokes got a handful against OSU. Stokes also played against Illinois, Nebraska, and Maryland -- like I said.
You can quibble and dodge and distract with irrelevant points all day. Go see the other thread. You'll still be wrong.
Intentionally misleading = lies
DeleteWell, those aren't same thing.
DeleteBottomline - we were missing one of our top 2 RBs for nearly half the year. For most of our important games. Stack up the games where we had both vs the games where we had 1 and I don't think you'd see much difference. The reason is they just gave a heavier workload to whoever was the primary back and the leftover backs played very little. The results don't show that it mattered. That's a fact.
So you won't comment on Corum's efforts in the weight room, getting stronger, and becoming the Back he is ... that's dodging
DeleteAlso won't comment on Stokes not getting "meaningful snaps" ... that's dodging
Not surprising
LOL. You want me to comment on Corum working out? OK. I think it's good! What's point are you making. Or are you "lying". Quotes since you don't know what that word means.
DeleteStokes got meaningful snaps. That's the point Anon made about OSU. And it's the point I made that it happened in other games. Which is... true.
It's not dodging just because you can't pay attention JE.
@JE
DeleteSince you're dodging it in the other thread but you still want to lie, accuse, and insult over on this thread, I'll refresh it here for you.
Please provide ONE quote of something I said. Just one. And then some statistics or data that prove it wrong.
One quote. Not a strawman you made up, but something I wrote. Dismantle it!
"Improvements don't just happen...These kids have to put in work, and Ben Herbert is a very key part of that improvement"
DeleteI agree 100%. But improvements (in performance) sometimes don't show up in results (production). If you attribute improved results to improved performance then it makes sense that you'd apply the same logic in the other direction.
Thunder is being logically consistent. He is saying YEAH ACTUALLY Donovan Edwards did lose something this offseason and the results reflect that. He said the same thing last year - Edwards got better and Corum got better and so you can see them producing better.
I don't agree with Thunder, but his logic is consistent. On Edwards. I don't know where he stands on Corum's production dropping off in 2023 or Fitz Toussaints dropping off every year of his career, but the point is he is connecting very directly RB performance and RB results and saying it goes both ways with Edwards.
You are saying if guys perform better it's due to offseason hard work but if guys perform worse it's just... I don't know. What is it?
Hey JE, I could really learn a lot from you.
DeleteCan you tell me how to put 8 or more emojis into my posts on here?
Specifically, the clown one. Thanks in advance.
DeletePosting here three weeks later since I know JE and only JE will read it. Because he's obsessed LOL.
DeleteThe clown is you. You clown yourself. Everytime.
Lank and je93:
DeleteYou guys are both posting so much and "calling each other out" so much that even the AI in charge of Blogger keeps sending me notifications, wondering if your comments are spam. That's why your comments aren't showing up immediately.
In other words, I have to approve these silly comments manually, one-by-one. On the one hand, I appreciate your readership.
On the other hand, we have two grown men calling each other names and another grown man having to click to approve it. So three of us are wasting our time here. This is a lose-lose-lose situation.
That's thoughtful of you Thunder and I have no disagreement but I feel like JE will be sad if he can't keep counting my posts. I'm doing it for him.
DeleteWe all know LyinLank is the board troll. It takes very little effort to make the self-proclaimed smart guy invest months of his time, bickering with some guy online ... he's been outplayed
DeleteLank will say he hasn't been proven wrong, while insisting 'prove Edwards is boom or bust,' and then when I laid out DE's carries at ohio, home moves the target to "now d0 c0rUm aGaiNsT iLLin0iS"
He doesn't like seeing that Milton was outplayed by UTSA QB, and insists on a SEC peer comparison. When that shows Milton toward the bottom, he claims "n0 oNe aSk3d for s3c stAts"
Success rate matters for RBs, but point out success rate against ohio - or last week against PennSt - and it's "r3lAx I told you don't fret"
Demands a quote, gets a quote, and the denies it's a quote ...
He's a troll, a liar. All talk, and I'll prove it
I am willing to meet up with LyinLank the next time I am in Detroit or when I'm in Seattle for the WA game next season. Whenever, wherever. We can compete in any manner of his choosing: basketball, running, boxing or grappling, pickleball or even chess. If he accepts, I'll donate $1oo to TTB for all the antics. If he wins, I'll donate $1ooo
LyinLank has been outsmarted, now it's time to be out competed ... bring the Mrs, she can watch 😉
BET
"guy invest months of his time, bickering with some guy online ... he's been outplayed"
Delete"He's a troll, a liar. All talk"
JEverytime! Playing yourself everytime!
Now you're making up fake quotes? LOL. Pitiful, even for you.
Now you want to meet up with Lank to play games? LOLOLOL
Thanks for the invite.
You didn't prove Edwards was boom/bust. Not once. You can't even define what that means. Like always. All you have is basic-ass opinions - but not the wherewithal to back them up with facts. Too busy smashing emojis. Too small to think through it.
You failed on Milton too. No quotes. Not a single one! Just your fantasies. Arguing with yourself everytime. Moving the goalposts. But you can't back up the talk - not ANY OF IT.
No quotes. No facts. You fail again and again.
You already lost a bet to me before, and then you "forgot" what the bet was about. Now you want to meet lank in person? LOLOL. Obsessed. Desperate.
Sorry buddy, nobody wants to play with you. I can smell the desperation all the way from the Sacramento suburbs.
You want to compete? Start with the one challenge you've been dodging over and over again for weeks. Prove me wrong.
I'll be specific to make it easy on you - make it about Joe Milton. Find ONE QUOTE about Joe Milton. Something I said - find it - copy it - put it in quotes. A statement made by me, about Joe Milton, that I actually said. Write it down on paper if you have to LOL.
Then post it again, in a comment on TTB, and add to that comment ONE FACT that proves my statement wrong. Football produces stats and we can use those stats to make our point. They are readily available. You can use them. You know that because you often use them to argue with yourself. Now do it with something I said.
You're a competitor. Compete. Rise to the challenge. Don't dodge it. Don't pretend.
One quote. One fact/stat to disprove it.
It's YEAR SIX little man. We've been talking about Milton for 6 years. There's plenty of quotes - find one. Prove it.
You can't and you won't. Because you know you're full of it.
You want to ... play pickleball with Lank? LOL. Sorry the guys at the rec center don't like you man but it's really not a surprise given......waves hands at all this.
"rent free"
I'll take that as a white flag, and I don't blame you
DeleteNothing to lose, but I'm willing to pay TTB $1ooo or $1o,ooo ... I'm that confident 😎
Mrs Lank would like it. 6'2, 210 athlete. Twisted steel & sex appeal, embarrassing her pathetic excuse for a husband. I even offered Chess, to eliminate the obvious physical advantage ... she'd keep it in her spankbank for years 😉
But I get it, wave the white flag ... LyinLank loses again
Happy Thanksgiving JEmoji.
DeleteThe only white flag is you on the continued dodge of finding ONE quote and ONE bit of evidence to refute it.
Already established that I know football better, can follow a conversation better, graduated from high school, make more money, have a better memory, and don't define my competitive nature by talking to the guys at the rec center. Now I know that I'm taller than you and bigger than you too.
Enjoy your Lank fantasies. Women want to be with me and men want to be me. In your case, JEmoji -- it seems both apply. LOLOLOLOL
Five replies ... rent free?
ReplyDeleteI gave you an example on the other thread, Mr CASE CLOSED ... the fact that you carry it over to another threat demonstrates just how open it is ... not even YOU agree with you Lank
But let's stick to this one:
did Stokes get meaningful snapS (plural) against Maryland? No. He got one, fumbled and was benched
Stokes carries against Nebraska came after we were up two TDs, even then at the end of the 1st Half & during the 2nd ... Nebraska finished w/3pts. Calling that "meaningful" is YOUR truth, but not a reality for those who understand the game
Too easy
You still don't have a single quote? After all these posts the tally adds up to...zero.
DeleteYou can't do it can you? I checked the other thread and still....nada. No quotes. No stats that refute them.
Not only can't you proved your case, you can't even say what you're arguing about. Not even you agree with you LOL.
Every time!
You're dodging ducking deflecting. Because you don't have it.
Still no quote on Stokes either. LOL. You can. not. do. this. JE. It's hilarious.
DeleteBut let's play along and pretend you found a quote.
As a reminder of the context of this argument (back when this was a conversation among grown-ups), Anon said this:
"Would I be concerned if Corum were to go down? Yes, I would be, which I believe is justified based on our loss to TCU last year and the Stokes carries against OSU that didn't go all that well."
Stokes got...2 carries against OSU.
He got 1 against Maryland.
Maryland snap count was 2 snaps, so yes, snapS not snap. Nice try sticking that lie in.
You are right that Stokes first carry against Nebraska was with a 14-3 lead. As usual with your attempts to call me out, I never said otherwise.
Was it meaningful? Yes. It came in the first half, with JJ, Blake, and all the other starters playing on that drive.
The proof is right there. Stokes saw meaningful snaps when Corum was healthy. This is a grade A fact.
And while I'm here, you can add Illinois to the list if you like. Stokes had multiple first half carries (when Blake was healthy).
The assumption that healthy Corum means no Stokes does NOT hold up.
That's how you do it JE. You provide a quote. Your counter it with facts.
You are incapable. You are out of your depth. Tell it to the crew at over 40 rec ball (hint: they're laughing at you also).
Here is me quoting you and disproving you once again:
Quote:
"did Stokes get meaningful snapS (plural) against Maryland? No. He got one, fumbled and was benched"
Stats:
Snaps =2
https://www.si.com/college/michigan/football/michigan-football-maryland-terrapins-big-ten-jim-harbaugh-jj-mccarthy-wolverines-pff-blake-corum
I'd just gloss over that usually because LOL 1 vs 2 is irrelevant, but here you are 100 posts in without a single quote or a single fact to prove me wrong. Not one! And then when you try your very darndest all you do is get caught up in being wrong yet again.
Get me that laugh/cry emoji!
On that extra play against Maryland, he didn't get the ball. He didn't make a block. That's not meaningful Lank
DeleteAgainst Nebraska, it was a two TD game against a team that couldn't score. That's not a meaningful either Lank
You cannot comprehend because you consider cheering for others who compete as your own competitiveness ... you don't know the game. All the extra posts & lengthy paragraphs don't hide that
So...still no quote? You can't do it?
DeleteIf the only snaps where a RB carries the ball are meaningful than you are arguing with the OP/Anon. Their original point as related to Stokes was specifically about OSU where he had 2 carries. Some people just like to argue.
I said he played meaningful snaps because the context was meaningful. Again -- JJ and Blake were playing. Ask the coaches if 1st half snaps with a 2 point lead are meaningful or not.
The whole point of this line of argument is you trying to deflect, dodge, and argue. You fail at it. Because I have facts for you even when you try to move the goalposts. You have no cogent argument here, you're just dickering about details, trying to prove me wrong, and failing at it.
I don't know if you've coached anything beyond pee wee football or not but it is clear you don't know a damn thing about college football. Wrong again and again and again. Maybe stick to what you are good at - emojis.
Did you say it or not? Is one carry a meaningful snap? How many did Corum get (over 60!). Context matters
DeleteSee? Easy 💪🏽😎
Did I say the quote you didn't provide? Hard to say since the emoji expert doesn't have any facts to offer.
DeleteIs one carry a meaningful snap?
It depends on when it happens. The context is meaningful, or it isn't. 1st half, 2 score lead -- meaningful snaps are happening here.
Still waiting JE. Looks at watch. One quote. One statement I made. One time JUST ONE where you proved it wrong.
You have nothing. Empty hands emojii!
It would be meaningful for you, who does not comprehend the game ... for a bench RB to get a carry while the starter eats 60+ snaps? Not meaningful
DeleteThere, context
"for a bench RB to get a carry while the starter eats 60+ snaps? Not meaningful"
DeleteYes JE and now we come FULL CIRCLE. Because you are a dim bulb with the attention span of a newt and take any discussion that's more complicated than a emoji/gif group chat as a personal affront, I'll explain it to you. Again LOL.
OP said a handful of carries by backup RB are meaningful "based on our loss to TCU last year and the Stokes carries against OSU that didn't go all that well.""
Against OSU Edwards had 49 snaps and Stokes had 4.
Against TCU Edwards had 74 snaps and Mullings had 9.
So thanks for making the argument I already made above again. LankOctober 22, 2023 at 11:53 AM
Even when you think you prove me wrong, you prove me right. YEAR 6!
You don't even know what you are arguing about. You can't keep track. No quotes just lies. and emojis LOL
So were the carries meaningful or not?
DeleteDid you claim they were or not?
What is your position on this TODAY?
🤥
I'd explain it for an 8th time but you're not smart enough. Think of the too small emoji with a brain emoji next to it.
DeleteHard to guess at the missing piece(s) for you. Probably something to do with not understanding what meaningful means or how it was applied in this convo. Start there. Define it.
Look dude, you're out of your depth. I know a lot of people like you who think that people can't be smart and athletic. My wife (full ride athletic scholarship to UF x PHD) and I have talked about it many times - nothing pisses off a smart/unathletic person more, or a an athletic/stupid person more, than to see someone who can thrive in either environment. Because they rather see the world in a jock/nerd paradigm. Too small! The people who suck at both are less offended.
Here you are, an ex-bully trying to make yourself big online, bragging about you played football 25 years ago to the guys in the suburban rec league (who couldn't care less BTW, just like me LOL), leaching off the government, trolling online for kicks, bragging ONLINE about how competitive you are LOL. And utterly failing. Just telling on yourself. Over and over.
Anyway. I'm bored with you. Here to talk Michigan football. If you want to keep exchanging insults that's fine too JEmoji but honestly at this point it's zzzz.
too small emoji
Long story short, Lank doesn't know what a meaningful carry is ... and it triggers him that his wife is the athlete in the family?
Delete🤷🏽♂️
zzzzzzzzz Emoji
DeleteThat's all you got 😂
Delete7 posts on three threads ... desperate for attention, but out of substance 😂
With you responding EVERY TIME. LOL.
DeleteEvery accusation is an admission. You tell on yourself so often. And you have NO AWARENESS of how funny it. Never change lil buddy.
Keep it here JE. Don't dodge and duck to make up strawman to argue with another thread. Hang in. I dare you. I challenge you. Mr Brags About Competing on the Internet message board, step up.
DeleteOne quote and one way that you proved it wrong.
Provide the facts.
Even when you try you flail. Stokes played one snap....LOL nope? Circle back to my original point because you can't pay attention or follow the covno....LOL yep! Jackson playing WR dismantles....what statement exactly? No quotes. Just fantasies.
You have nothing. Empty hands. Too small.
But you want to talk to Lank soooooooooooooo bad. Everyday. Everyday the emoji's fly and you embarrass yourself. Kiss heart emoji to you lil buddy.
"triggered" by a successful athletic and intelligent woman? LOL - you're telling on yourself again JE. How fragile!
DeleteYou don't have to keep doing this to yourself everyday. But know that I appreciate it that you do. LOL
Three replies ... rent free!
DeleteI gave you one quote ... you moved the target. Who's projecting Lank?
Did Stokes playing meaningful snaps against Maryland? ONE carry. One other snap, to give Corum a break (over 60! snaps) ... didn't get a carry against Nebraska until they were done scoring their 3pts. Game was over. You don't know what meaningful is. Maybe you should let your wife use one of your fake accounts ... whatever happened to SPANK?
See? Short & simple 💪🏽😎
You didn't prove "Case Closed" wrong. Go back to the ask. Find the quote. You won't. You'll duck that challenge too.
DeleteHere's some quotes from you:
"rent free" <--- indeed. here you are everyday flailing. wanting to talk about lank, to lank, counting up the posts with glee.
"one of your fake accounts" <------ remembering back fondly to when I used a different name? Hard for you to type so you project a level of effort for something that is effortless. Who would go and create a fake account to comment on a blog? Oh yeah...you're just telling on yourself yet again! You would. LOLOL
"moved the target" <---- yes you do. everytime. because you can't argue against what I say you have to pretend.
"Short & simple" <------- yes you are. this projection is spot on. but your post.....wasn't. It was long like Lank's arms.
...and long like Lank's memory. I'm old enough to remember this move of the goalposts a few days ago.
Delete"je93October 24, 2023 at 3:41 PM
Five replies ... rent free? I gave you an example on the other thread, Mr CASE CLOSED ... the fact that you carry it over to another threat demonstrates just how open it is ... not even YOU agree with you Lank
But let's stick to this one: did Stokes get meaningful snapS (plural) against Maryland? No. He got one, fumbled and was bencheds"
"
Lots of goodies there. "rent free" again. Except here you are posting EVERYDAY again and again. the same fantasy over and over again. Lonely? Seeking attention? Everytime!
"CASE CLOSED" <-- didn't understand it then. won't understand it now. proved it wrong never.
Zero quotes! Zero stats to prove them wrong!
JEmoji wants to dodge talking about football which he knows nothing about. Coaching peewee and thinks he's an expert. Playing rec ball thinks he's a competitor. Fantasyland. Here he wants to diagnose metaphors he doesn't understand.
Only he doesn't know he's telling on himself.
"did Stokes get meaningful snapS (plural) against Maryland? No."
Yes he did. A lie. Even when you try to prove me wrong you fail. It's transparent baby.
Stokes got meaningful snaps, in competitive situatons, just like Corum: against Maryland, Nebraska, Illinois, and OSU. JE forgot the whole line of debate started about 2 carries against OSU. LOL.
Dude can't keep track of what the conversation is about let alone prove anyone else wrong.
EMOJI TIME!
-------------
Long post. Even longer than yours. This is effortless for me. But all your projection and post counts and accusations about "fake accounts" are all just you talking on yourself. The is too hard for you. A struggle. Hard for you too imagine how easy it can be for someone else because....too small emoji.
Hi Mrs Lank! Glad you took up my offer on assuming one of your dipshit:t husband's burner accounts. So I hear you're an athlete ... well, lemme know if you're interested in a little 1v1. I know how to keep the Mister occupied 😉
DeleteEqually classy as you are clever. If Mrs Lank saw you she'd surely think the same thing I think -- Too Small!
DeleteClassy? That's what you think 😉
DeleteNothing says class like emojis.
DeleteShe knows 😉
DeleteKeep your Lank fantasies going little buddy. Dreaming about Lanks wife. Dreaming about Lank with his pants down. Telling on yourself everytime.
DeleteAnd you'll do it again here - talking about checking old posts while....checking my notes...checking old posts.
Talking about being obsessed while obsessing.
JEverytime
Cold truth is you have nothing to say about football. A dullard sitting on his phone alone with nothing to say looking for engagement on his friday nights.
Never once proved me wrong though! It's so easy - yet you can't do it.
Emojitime!
The posts I reply to are days old; I get to em when I get to em ... you went looking for mine - football related & not in any way related to you - and replied three weeks later
DeleteDesparate. Obsessed
Nothing to say. Just want to talk to Lank. JEverytime.
DeleteNOTE: I will be deleting any further Lank vs. je93 comments. It's a little too ridiculous you guys are still commenting and trading insults on here after like 40 days, and it's gone way beyond what's reasonable. You're both better than this.
ReplyDeleteFair enough though the last sentence is debatable LOL
Delete