Emotional edge FTW. Going into this game, I felt like Michigan had more of a reason to win this game. I mean, aside from the fact that Michigan State sucks and surely really wanted to win because sucking isn't fun, Michigan should have had more of a reason. This stems mostly from the fact that Gemon Green and Ja'den McBurrows were viciously attacked in the tunnel last year. But this past week's cheating allegations probably cheesed off the Wolverines quite a bit since their accomplishments were considered to be tainted by some. But it seems like emotion sometimes forces players and/or coaches to press. So in my game preview, I predicted a 34-10 victory. I thought Michigan might come out a little slow, might get caught by a trick play, etc. But it turns out Michigan didn't have any trick plays up their sleeve. They didn't really have much of anything up their sleeve.
Hit the jump for more.
Best game of J.J. McCarthy's career? I kind of felt like this might have been the best McCarthy has played, even though the opponent wasn't anything special. It ended up being his second-highest passing efficiency behind last week's Indiana game, but it included a career-high 4 touchdown passes. On top of that, some of his throws were with pinpoint accuracy into small windows with great anticipation. He finished 21/27 for 287 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. There were a few hiccups (missing a wide open Tyler Morris, throwing a swing pass high to Blake Corum, trying to outrun MSU linebacker Aaron Brule and taking a sack, etc.), but his ability scramble and his ability to complete balls in the middle of the field really impress me. The second touchdown pass to tight end Colston Loveland was a laser delivered at just the right time and on a perfect trajectory, and McCarthy just seemed to have that feel all night.
Extremely dirty play from an MSU player? Check. Michigan State starting right tackle Spencer Brown was ejected from the game for a vicious, late, dirty hit on Braiden McGregor. When MSU quarterback Katin Houser threw a 72-yard pick-six to Mike Sainristil, McGregor threw kind of a block away from the play. Then McGregor ended up face down on the ground, and the 6'6", 315 lb. Brown jumped crown-first onto the back of McGregor's helmet. This type of dirty play seems to exist every year against Michigan State, going back more than a decade. From MSU players trying to decapitate Denard Robinson and Devin Gardner to Jacub Panasiuk making an extremely late hit on Shea Patterson to the entire team trying to intimidate Devin Bush, Jr. to the pricks from East Lansing attacking Gemon Green and Ja'Den McBurrows in the tunnel last year, it's been more than a decade of this stuff. In response, Michigan State fans will say that Taylor Lewan was dirty - he as - and that Joe Bolden got called for targeting in 2015, which was one of the weakest targeting calls I've seen. So . . . those things are not equal.
Hello, A.J. Barner. Indiana transfer tight end A.J. Barner has been quietly solid all year, but this was a breakout game for him in the receiving department. He caught 8 passes for 99 yards and 1 touchdown in this one. His previous career high in receptions was 5, and he caught a 76-yard touchdown against Idaho in 2021, which represented his highest yardage total. In fact, nobody in 2023 has topped those reception or yardage totals, not even #1 receiver Roman Wilson. McCarthy had a high amount of trust in Luke Schoonmaker last season, and that dependability got Schoonmaker drafted by the Cowboys. But both Barner and Loveland are better players than Schoonmaker, and that's not an insult to Schoonmaker, who was a solid all-around tight end.
Hello, Ja'Den McBurrows. I found it fitting that McBurrows popped up for his first significant plays in this one, and I don't think it's a coincidence. McBurrows has received a lot of practice hype without much production so far in his career, but he made 3 tackles in this one (fourth most on the team) and notched his first career interception on a deflection in the fourth quarter. He had 4 career tackles going into this game. The coaching staff knew how much this game meant to him and gave him a chance to go out there and get revenge.
For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. Michigan's prowess in throwing the ball has been significant, but we have seen a drop-off in rushing performance. Perhaps the loss of Matt Weiss has hurt the running game, and perhaps the hiring of Kirk Campbell has helped the passing game. Regardless, the performances of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards have fallen. The explosive plays are largely gone, and even the chunk plays have fallen off. Corum (15 carries, 59 yards, 1 TD) is still solid and churns for extra yards, but Edwards (6 carries, 14 yards) isn't doing anything on the ground. He makes up for it through the air, but his 3.2 yards per carry this season is still at the bottom for running backs in the Big Ten.
What does MSU have in Katin Houser? I actually think the Spartans may have found a decent quarterback in Houser, who was a 4-star and the #225 overall player in the 247 Composite. But he's a true freshman, and they might ruin him before he gets a chance to be good. He finished 12/22 for 101 yards and 1 interception before being replaced in the fourth. Michigan was way too overwhelming with their blitz packages, and MSU doesn't have any receivers who can uncover on their own. The days of Keon Coleman and Jayden Reed are gone. Perhaps River Rouge (MI) River Rouge can bring that element in the 2024 class if he signs with the Spartans, but things are looking a little bleak at the moment.
Harlon Barnett was so cute at the beginning of the second half. Look, I don't have anything against Harlon Barnett other than he went to and coaches for Michigan State. But MSU was down 28-0 at the half, and he opened the second half with some very peppy clapping and body language. When you're down 28-0, you do what you can do as a coach to try to rally the troops and make sure the wheels don't fall off. But there was no stopping the wheels from falling off on Saturday night. The Spartans did some decent things on the drive for a few plays, and then penalties and a general lack of talent cost them. Plus that whole 72-yard interception return for a touchdown.
Pretty much a clinic on quarterbacking last night. A number of darts through decent coverage. This is a season for quarterbacking which ought to help bringing in more better QB prospects. Although young Mr Bell continues to have my vote for the next guy.
ReplyDeleteRoanman
Bryce Underwood. It will take a lot of NIL money and that might not be forth coming. Not sure why UM has such a struggle to get RB's OL QB's. Wr's I understand. RB's I don't.
DeleteRE: RB recruiting
DeleteWe got Corum in 2020 and Edwards in 2021. Blue chippers, even if Corums rank technically didn't show it. Corum was h2h win with OSU which we don't get all that often.
2022 was a dud class yes, but nationally speaking it was a down year. With Corum and Edwards around it was understandably not all that attractive to recruits even without talking about NIL. 2022 we got Cabana, a top 10 RB. Maybe not as blue chip as we like but a local kid and the type of speed back Harbaugh recruits again and again.
It's a surprise that 5-star RBs aren't falling over themselves to come to Michigan in some sense. but a)we are not exactly struggling at the position and b) there's not much room at the inn and c) until NIL sorts itself out it's probably not wise too throw too much cash as high school kids when the Portal is available and more effecient.
There was a lot of smoke about us stealing Wisconsin's RB if Corum turned pro but what was he going to do -- come here to be 3rd string? That's why Zach Charbonnet left. Anything we get from HS is probably going to be very high cost (for 5-star talent) so we can stick to the formula of getting 4-star talent instead and then leveling up via Portal as opportunity arises. We haven't seen that at RB yet at Michigan but we've seen at other positions and at other programs (e.g., Kenneth Walker, Jahymr Gibbs)
AFAIK, Kendrick Bell has already made the switch to WR and there's been no talk of moving him back.
DeleteHart IMO is a great RB coach and he found Hall, the 104 ranked player-in the state of GA, so I trust hart to find some talent in the scrap heap.
DeleteNow, CJ has fallen off the Map. didn't make the traveling squad when last year he was going to be the featured back in the OSU game. That lasted 2 snaps.
@ Anonymous 2:38 p.m.
DeleteStokes has been injured. I'm not sure what the plan is for him, but injury is at least partly at issue.
Best game of the season, and I thought so last week (the week before too). We're improving as we move into November, and "look better than the rest of the pack"
ReplyDeleteAs for our run game, could OC & OL be too much for Moore? That's a very tall order, and while we're pushing piles for short yardage just fine, we aren't exacty opening holes for the big chunks
JJ for Heisman. It's not his stats, but watch the plays; his pocket awareness is superb, and he sees the entire field ... that first throw to Barner wasn't close to being open as JJ was feeling his pocket collapse
I also noticed that we started rotating Corners early in this one; with DJ Waller the first in
I think the question about OC/OL being too much is a legitimate one. It's premature to see it as a problem, but it's unconventional. I would not be surprised to see Newsome slide to OL next year, regardless of if Moore is back or not (and it would be a big surprise if Moore isn't an HC elsewhere).
DeleteI'm still not worried about the run game. Success rate remains elite even if YPC has slid. I think some of this is just situational, counting on JJ more for the big plays and instead of running on 2nd and 9 or 3rd and 7 or whatever. We are more apt to throw now that we have a quarterback that isn't either a)19 or b)not very good.
I don't have the data to back it up but it seems like a much bigger share of our runs this year are in obvious run situations, compared to last 2 years. That by itself will drag YPC down.
Relevant stat:
DeleteRushing success rate in 2022: 48%
Rushing success rate in 2023: 46%
Granted, competition has been easier in 2023, but whatever dropoff we are seeing in playmaking is not showing up yet in consistency.
But that playmaking IS definitely way down, not just from Edwards though he is the most stark example.
Team EPA/rush play has dropped from 23rd to 57th nationally.
Does 2 loses, probably 1 more eliminated Williams?
DeleteI think it does.
UNC lost.
So it is down to Penix, IMO.
It all depends on the OSU outcome.
Does JJ carve up OSU on the way to back to back undefeated regular seasons ? I think given that, along with 1 Husky loss, and it is JJ's.
Run game update (with MSU included this time):
DeleteSuccess Rate of 45% is down to 23rd in the country (compared to 7th at 48% last year).
The EPA/play is down to 61st in the country (23rd last year). That's still explainable via the lack of explosive runs.
But the offense overall seems better than last year. Success begets success and we're passing more, The problem last year was that we ran Corum into the ground (overused him). We're not making that mistake this year, and we've also been able to keep McCarthy fresh so far.
DeleteAgree DD. It's not likely a problem, and probably more than anything reflects a change in what is being asked of the run game rather than a change in effectiveness.
DeleteNonetheless - the stats are the stats. We've gone from 5.6 YPC last year to 4.7 YPC this year.
All things being equal you'd expect that if the passing game is firing on all that would open up big plays for the run game, and with both top RBs being healthy that would make an impact, and with an easier schedule (no Iowa, Illinois, or OSU/PSU yet)... all of that would point you to expecting a more efficient, if not more productive in total, rushing attack.
Not happening though, so clearly it's not that simple.
It's possible opponents are still convinced stopping Michigan's run game is their best chance, despite the evidence that McCarthy's passing will do great damage. So they continue to focus on stopping the run, which explains the lower run success rate. I guess if I was a DC for an opponent, and I was facing Michigan knowing that I couldn't defend both run and pass, I might well say, in effect, "Well, if I can only stop one, I'm going to try to stop the run." If the opposing defenses put two safeties high and 10 yards off the line, and kept a linebacker or two back in zone, Michigan would simply take what was given them and we'd see more from Corum and Edwards. So the defenses cast their lot and try to stop the run, and they get bled to death by the passing game.
DeleteWell said, Lank and Anonymous. I guess the big difference this year in McCarthy and greater trust in the passing game. Another factor, perhaps, is that all of our games have been blowouts and we're not trying to get Corum the Heisman. So he gets his 75 yards and then his day is done.
DeleteI think it's a fascinating question. Every conventional idea points to what should be better YPC, success rate, whatever run game metric you want to point to. But the numbers are clearly down.
DeleteThere's a lot of potential explanations. I'm not sure I've heard a compelling comprehensive answer yet. It may just be a combination of things. Maybe Olu has one haha.
Clearly though we all agree the passing game is much better and that's definitely a thing to celebrate.
Edwards & Coach Hart told us what was up with him. Take their words, they're closest to the situation
DeleteCorum said something about his injury as well
Maybe thses matters have yet to be resolved. Occam's razor applies
What do you mean JE? What is the explanation for the run game producing less in 2023 than 2022.
DeleteIt's in the podcast links I posted (no quote 😂)
DeleteNo quotes! No cogent summary. Just emoji.
DeleteYeah I think it was JJ's best game as well. He had some of the best throws of his career yesterday and showed off his arm on multiple ropes. A couple of those make me nervous about tight windows against OSU and PSU's defenses. But I'll take it. You definitely want to keep him confident and aggressive, even if there's some risk that comes with his playmaking (which we saw playout against TCU).
ReplyDeleteMike Sainristil said the same thing about trick plays after the game. They were expected but didn't come. MSU is down bad. After last year it's hard to avoid the schadenfreude.
Prior to Tuttle time, Michigan had 12 completions to TEs, 5 to RBs, and 5 to WRs. HARBALL baby! The distinguishing thing about Harbaugh isn't that he wants to run a lot, it's that he LOVES using TEs to mess with gaps. And this TE trio is probably the best he's had. Barner and Loveland are receivers first who are also doing a great job blocking. It's ideal for HARBELL because he can bring those guys in tight or flex them outside without subbing. Now that Harbaugh has a Luck/Kapernick caliber QB he has the offensive balance he wants and now that he has do-it-all TEs he can run the stuff he wants. It's really fun to watch.
Defense still remains untested and it was clear they weren't worried about MSU at all. Waller, QJo, Benny, and Sabb were rotating in very early yesterday. Michigan was loosening up the rotation and they STILL dominated. It's a damn good thing they get to practice against the Michigan offense all week because otherwise I'd be worried they weren't ready for Maryland. LOL.
Semaj Morgan for punt returner? Every time the kid touches the ball he impresses.
I love the use of TEs and I hope that we continue to utilize that approach whenever Harbaugh takes off for the NFL. As teams have prioritized defending the spread offense it feels like we have a bit of a meta advantage because of our TE usage.
DeleteThis stuff can be cyclical. Seems like more teams are coming back around to more RB-focused offense (e.g., OSU). Less 10 personnel than we've seen in a while. Offenses innovate, defenses adapt, and then we go again.
DeleteSuch a shame seeing little brother get steam rolled like it was 1936. A pitty.
ReplyDeleteEdwards needs the ball in space, trying to run him between the tackles, I don't think so. The run game is different this year because the RB's are not taking the top off of teams like they did last year. I "feel" it is more of teams are taking that away with gap responsibilities because they have last years tape and they are not going to let it happen again.
What is not on tape? JJ throwing it all the over yard on a laser.
Two drops and it looked like Morris dropped it down a gear on the sideline throw when the one defender fell and JJ threw it as if he was running full out.
What does this mean for PSU? Very good defense but they will not hold up to bail out their offense. This is a GREAT tune up game (yes, tune up game) for OSU as they will challenge the offense and force it get better. PSU is so bad on offense I can't see them threatening to win the game. 10 points could win it.
Defense, CB#2 is still a question mark. Not sure what we have with our ends other than they good. Can't they get pressure consistently with 4? I don't know.
CB#1 is very good, and I hope Maryland has a great WR to provide a tune up for the OSU MHjr showdown.
Safeties and LB seem to be trending better as they get reps.
The DL is still working on getting the correct drops into zone to stop those quick slants. Isn't it great to have an awesome DC? The days of Herriman/English are gone, thank the stars.
I am moving the PSU game from 70% win rate to 85%.
I am moving the OSU game from a 60% win rate to 70%.
I'm just looking at our schedule and seeing how truly devoid of challenge our D has been to date. Is the best offense we've faced so far...Minnesota?
DeleteI think PSU will be both the best D and the best O we will have seen all year up to that point. By far! It'll be a test on both sides of the ball. Even if OSU's offense will be way better.
Maryland's O might be a better test though LOL. Maybe we are working are way up to OSU.
It's going to be a shock to the system though and I'm still saying that even if hypothetically Johnson completely locks down Harrison 1 on 1 (which, LOL, no) we still have BIG TIME questions about who is going to cover the rest of OSU's receiving corps. Not just CB2, but CB3 and CB4. Sainristil can hang, we won't know about Wallace until that day I guess, and then rotating in is going to be... Waller? Harris? Walker? That's all still a work in progress.
I think we're all still a little concerned over there but it should not be a surprise because we lost Turner and Green off a team that already had some dodgy depth in the secondary that showed against TCU.
We returned a lot players from last year so we know they are pretty good. It is not like we replaced 9 NFL draft picks with a lot of unknown guys that we are not sure about how they can play against top teams. We know. We saw it last year. PSU is worse this year with Clifford gone. Every game is different but I would be surprised if PSU had ANY consistent success moving the ball.
DeleteWe replaced 2 starters at corner with a late coming transfer from UMass, various freshman, and a position-switching WR. None of them look anything like Turner. Johnson is going to play more snaps this year, but not enough to make up for Turner and Green.
DeleteIt would have been nice to get Green back. A misfire of the NIL cannon IMO.
Crap!!! I hate when that happens.
ReplyDeleteStill, the kid gets my vote, should they call and ask.
Roanman