RUSH OFFENSE vs. WASHINGTON RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #62 in rushing offense (159.5 yards/game) and #72 in yards per carry (4.25). They're tied for #4 in rushing touchdowns (36) with Air Force, a team that only attempted 105 passes for the entire season. Blake Corum has rushed 237 times for 1,111 yards and 25 touchdowns, and he is now the leading touchdown scorer in Michigan history with 59 total scores. Donovan Edwards (113 carries, 393 yards, 3 TD) is second on the team in rushing but has struggled mightily, while RB Kalel Mullings (33 carries, 201 yards, 1 TD) and QB J.J. McCarthy (60 carries, 171 yards, 3 TD) are also threats on the ground. The offensive line performed well last week against Alabama despite having to RG Zak Zinter with Karsen Barnhart and inserting RT Trente Jones. Washington's defense is #43 in yards allowed per game (137.1) and #86 in yards allowed per carry (4.4). Against top-10 ranked teams, the Huskies have allowed 88 carries for 508 yards (5.77 yards/carry) and 6 touchdowns. The leading tackler is fifth year senior SS Dominique Hampton (6'3", 220 lbs.) with 99 stops, followed by fifth year senior MLB Edefan Ulofoshio (6'1", 236) with 90 tackles and backup WLB Carson Bruener (6'2", 226), the son of former Washington and NFL tight end Mark Bruener, with 80 stops. They're #119 in tackles for loss per game (4.43), led by redshirt junior EDGE Bralen Trice (6'4", 274) with 11.5 and Ulofoshio with 8.0. They also have a mammoth nose tackle in 6'6", 327 lb. fifth year senior Ulumoo Ale, who has 16 tackles and 2.0 tackles for loss this year as a space-eater.
Advantage: Michigan. Good teams have had solid success against Oregon, and even though Texas and Oregon have statistically better rushing attacks than Michigan, the Wolverines should present issues for the Huskies up front.
PASS OFFENSE vs. WASHINGTON PASS DEFENSE
Michigan's pass offense ranks #73 nationally (218.9 yards/game), #14 in yards per attempt (9.0), and #5 in passing efficiency. McCarthy started off last week's Rose Bowl with an ugly interception on the first play - that was luckily overturned due to the Alabama player having his foot out of bounds - but otherwise, he played a solid game after a few lackluster performances. Overall, he has completed 73.2% of his passes for 9.1 yards/attempt, 22 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. There's a cluster of receivers at the top of the receiving list, all with 42-45 receptions: WR Roman Wilson (45 catches, 735 yards, 12 TD), TE Colston Loveland (42, 585, 4), and WR Cornelius Johnson (44, 579, 1). The Wolverines are #29 in sacks allowed per game (1.36) and gave up just 1 to a very good Crimson Tide pass rush last week. Meanwhile, Washington is #123 in passing defense (267.1 yards allowed/game), #32 in passing efficiency defense, and tied for #22 in yards allowed per attempt (6.6). They have allowed six 300+ yards passing games this season, including to 3-9 Stanford and 5-7 Washington State. (By comparison, the most passing yards Michigan has allowed was 271 against Ohio State.) Washington is #116 in sacks per game (1.5), but Trice has 6 in his last seven games after having just 1 in his first seven contests. Second on the team is fifth year senior Zion Tupuola-Fetui (6'4", 254) with 3.5. The Huskes are tied for #17 in interceptions per game (1.14), led by redshirt junior Husky (that's their nickel hybrid) Mishael Powell (3 INT, 99 yards, 1 TD at 6'1", 210) and CB Jabbar Muhammad (5'10", 183) with 3 INT for 53 yards.
Advantage: Michigan. Having watched a lot of Oregon and Texas against Washington, the Huskies' defensive backs had a difficult time tackling - which also should help in Michigan's run game - and they were also bailed out by some ugly, untimely drops by the Longhorns. As long as Michigan can avoid self-inflicted issues with drops, they should be able to find some success and get some yards after the catch.
Edwards PFF and MgoUFR scores are solid to good since early in the year. Most of his "struggles" are relative; to his stellar performance in 3 games as RB1 a year ago and to the stellar performance of RB1. In other words Edwards isn't Blake Corum. Trente Jones isn't Zak Zinter. JJ McCarthy probably isn't Tom Brady. That's not struggling.
ReplyDeleteEdwards is playing well and a valuable contributor. He's not putting up big numbers in the run game - though he is in the pass game. Snaps against OSU went 35 to Corum and 25 to Edwards. In the Rose it was 37 and 18 respectively. The coaches could ride Blake more heavily (as they did with Edwards at the end of last year) but they don't. Why? Because Edwards continues to play well.
The silver lining of Edwards reduced role and production (compared to when RB1 was hurt) is that he seems to have grown stronger personally (whatever doesn't kill you) and...if we are very fortunate....he just might want to come back for 2024 and get that chance to shine as RB1 again. I know I've gone from "yeah right" to "yes please" in the last few months on Edwards returning.
I'm sorry, but Edwards is not playing well. He's had a couple drops in the passing game in the past couple games, and he's doing virtually nothing in the run game.
DeleteHe literally has 4 catches for 24 yards and 0 touchdowns in the last five games. He's averaging 8.3 yards/catch and has 0 touchdowns for the season.
Just because you grade well doesn't mean you're not struggling. There are players who do the right things but just aren't very good because they're not big enough, fast enough, strong enough, etc. Nick Sheridan could have done the exact right thing every single time, but because he was short, slow, and weak-armed, it didn't really matter. Good grade...not a good player.
Disagree Thunder. I would say just because you put up big numbers doesn't mean you are struggling. Sheridan wasn't grading out well in anyone's system. Bredeson is. Edwards is. Its not grading on a curve.
DeleteDo you think the coaches are making a mistake by playing Edwards 1/3 of the time or more?
McCarthy, at Michigan, is probably a little better than Brady similar points.
DeleteMcCarthy has better coaching, Brady probably had better skill players.
UM keeps trying to use Edwards btw the tackles and he needs to be put in space or sit the bench. Don't understand it.
I would much rather have #20 in there splitting carries because he runs with anger and paves people. Reminds me of Minor (Minor RAGE!) when Minor was healthy for those 5 plays. They used him as a blocker on one play and he flattened some BAMA player as a lead blocker.
The talent around Brady and Henson was remarkable.
DeleteMichigan doesn't need to tailor a gameplan around any backup RB -- they're using him effectively in the pass game and, even if they aren't, you can bet the defense is paying attention to him. He's got gravity that doesn't show up in the statbook.
As for Mullings vs Edwards -- well I don't think the coaches got it wrong last year and I don't think the coaches got it wrong this year and I certainly hope we get both back next year so the "argument" can stay relevant.
@ Lank 3:45 p.m.
DeleteIf Edwards returns next season and is the starting RB at Michigan, I would expect to see some significant weight/body makeup changes for him. He was 202 last year and is listed at 210 this season. He's going to have to be 215-220 to help give him the size/strength to break some tackles AND have the confidence to break tackles. That might affect his quickness a little bit, but that's going to be a necessary component if he wants to become the bell cow back.
@ Lank 3:34 p.m.
DeleteI don't necessarily think Michigan is making a mistake by playing Edwards, because that implies that Stokes, Dunlap, Cabana, etc. are better. And I don't think that's the case. You can only play who you have on the team. There were some times this season where Mullings was the #2 back into the game, and then he missed some time due to injury. I think there will be a legitimate battle going into 2024 if both of those guys return.
Again, Michigan under Jim Harbaugh has never had a player like Edwards be its lead back. We have 9 years of seeing that the tough guy - whether it's Corum, Haskins, Smith, Charbonnet, etc. - will be the main guy, and the more finesse guys - Isaac, Edwards, Johnson, etc. - will be backups. And that includes Karan Higdon, who was a fairly tough runner despite being 190-202 pounds as a starter.
I'm asking about Mullings vs Edwards. I think Dunlap etc are not in the rotation so not really relevant. It's to Mullings credit that he has broken into the rotation IMO, but he's a bit player in snapcounts relative to Corum/Edwards. I think that's telling.
DeleteI don't think Mullings ever got more snaps than Edwards once. He was the second back in the game once I believe, coming in for a short yardage situation. Edwards has more CARRIES even in every game except a deep blowout against Minnesota. Let's not pretend that there isn't a very clear hierarchy; RB1 is Blake, RB2 is Don, RB3 is Kalel. It is not remotely controversial or up for debate. The only question is if you think the coaches are getting this wrong.
As for never having a lead back "like Edwards" I am going to go out on a limb and say that when Donovan Edwards was the lead back last year that was a lot "like Edwards". ;) But if you want another example recall back to 2017 when Chris Evans began the season as the bellcow and finished the season as the lead back as well. Higdon was the lead ball carrier on the season but it was close and Evans, Isaac, and Higdon all had their moments being the top guy.
Anyway, I don't think Edwards is too "finesse" to thrive as the primary back. We've already seen him do it, so not much of a leap on my part. I don't think he has to gain much weight to do it, for the same reason. That said, I would NOT AT ALL be surprised to see him try to hulk up a bit for a senior year. But if Mullings decides to return alongside him, they might just want to stick to a Thunder/Lightning personnel. I don't know that gaining weight is the best path for Donovan if he wants to hold onto his draft stock. Which remains high and likely means he won't be back. But I can hope...
Lank, Edwards continues to play because he is dangerous and they want to get him going. But he's been inferior to Mullings this year. The reason he plays more than Mullings right now is that Edwards offers something that Mullings does not - potential for explosive plays. Mullings is a heavier overlap to Corum. Why play Mullings more (even if he is effective) when you can put Corum out there? But if Corum were not available right now, my guess is that Mullings would be playing at least as much, if not more, than Edwards. Still a big fan of Edwards as he gives the explosive element but Mullings has been more effective this year so far.
Delete@Kurt
DeleteI disagree with you. Even if you take Mullings 33 carries and superior YPC at face, the difference in pass catching is substantial. Edwards is outperforming Mullings because of it.
I don't think the coaches are just sitting there hoping for an explosive from Donovan -- that's not been the playcalling for him. If anything they spent half a season running him between the tackles so that he was more ready to step in again if Blake got hurt.
Now, if Blake was hurt and Mullings filled the hole this year, I think you might be onto something. But I don't think you are. And that hasn't happened. And last year directly contradicts you. I continue to be surprised that Michigan fans think Edwards 3.5 YPC is more telling than the direct evidence we have from a year ago of Edwards being not just a replacement primary ball carrier, but an excellent one.
This whole logic of Thunder and Lightning type of split is overlooking the fact that Blake is explosive and pass catch threat as well. Michigan has used Donovan as a 3rd down back in meaningful snaps, but in OTHER snaps they've run Donovan like any other back and used him more than Mullings there too.
I think you are right that Mullings is not as explosive as Edwards -- and that matters, on every down (other than short yardage).
@ Lank 11:58 a.m.
Delete"I continue to be surprised that Michigan fans think Edwards 3.5 YPC is more telling than the direct evidence we have from a year ago of Edwards being not just a replacement primary ball carrier, but an excellent one."
Edwards has one year of being good (2022) and one year of being bad (2023). It shouldn't be surprising that if he's bad 50% of the time, people are going to go with the most recent narrative.
If the seasons were flipped and he put up 3.5 YPC in 2022 and then ran wild in 2023, we wouldn't be like, "Yeah, he was bad last year, and he's still bad even though he ran all over Ohio State, Purdue, and TCU at the end of the 2023 season." We would be like, "Well, he needed some time to mature, but obviously he's getting better and taken to the coaching."
He was good. Now he's not. And people have noticed. And in some ways, we're trying to figure out why. That's it.
I should say "a faction" of Michigan fans.
DeleteEdwards hasn't been bad. At all. I disagree with your premise, and everything that flows from it. MAYBE a couple games early in the year but he's bounced back from that. As indicated by PFF/MGO.
If he was playing poorly, the coaches would be fools for sticking with him all season long. The coaches are not fools. He is not playing poorly. Start there.
Instead of figuring out why Edwards went from good to bad consider that the premise is wrong. It's an IF not a WHY. People can get worse, it's not impossible, it's just not very common unless something big changes and we have no evidence of some BIG CHANGE for Donovan. His attitude is great, he's worked hard by all reports, and the coaches continue to trust him and put him out there, even with good options like Mullings available.
You are reading WAY too much into YPC and it's not the first time.
You are absolutely right that the narratives would be different if the order was flipped. That tells you mostly about the quality of the narratives.
Edwards was good in HS and became a blue chip recruit.
DeleteEdwards was good as a freshman - carving out a notable role behind Haskins/Corum and stepping up when called on, particularly late in the year when Corum was dinged.
Edwards was good as a sophomore - Blake's backup who produced quiet numbers until filling in and thriving as a starter
Edwards was good as a junior - team-first attitude, returned to a complementary role as Blake stayed healthy all year, thrived as a pass catching threat.
I don't know what's next for Edwards but I bet he's right about believing in himself.
How does Edwards PFF compare to other RBs?
DeleteAs for MGo, their narrative is closer to the critical points here. Edwards own comments line up as well. Just not a good season, compared to expectations (his, fans or media)
@ Lank 12:36 p.m.
DeleteYou're making an incorrect assumption about my use of YPC. YPC is used - as it always has been - to complement what I see with my eyeballs. Edwards is missing holes, he's not making people miss, he's not breaking tackles, etc.
This goes all the way back to the Michael Cox days. I saw what he did on the field, and YPC supported what I saw. I'm seeing what Donovan Edwards does on the field, and YPC supports what I'm seeing.
It's really simple.
DeleteMichael Cox was not a good RB. Not at Michigan, not at UMass, not in New York.
Donovan Edwards is a good RB. He was in HS, he is at Michigan - and has been every year, and probably will be wherever he goes next.
Regardless if it's YPC or the eye test -- reaching the opposite conclusion is dead wrong.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Edwards was a backup to Corum, because Corum is even better than Edwards. Now shame in that especially since whenever Edwards was called upon to step in for Blake, he thrived. We can't just gloss this over. He actually did it. He performed AS A PRIMARY BACK every time he was asked to. He ran BETWEEN THE TACKLES with tremendous success, whenever Michigan needed him to be the man - he did the damn thing.
I'm not talking about expectations - I am not talking about grading on some curve. Edwards has thrived at Michigan consistently earning carries on teams with Haskins, Edwards, and other good backs on them. When Michigan didn't need him -- he got snaps anyway. When Michigan did need him -- he crushed.
If his Michigan career is over, that's his legacy. I'm not even talking about yesterday - yesterday was a day where a lot of RBs could have thrived because the OL/DL matchup was so favorable to Michigan and everyone got to eat. Edwards legacy is that he handled being one of the best backup RBs in America with absolute class and full awareness of what it meant for him as an individual. He produced, but not at the level that some of us know he could be at if given a different opportunity.
Cox is the exact opposite. He got opportunities because of his talent as a runner (an accusation thrown at Edwards frequently). Unlike Edwards, never could put it together. Rodriguez and Hoke both reached the same exact conclusion. Cox wasn't as good of a RB as Michael Shaw, Stephen Hopkins, Vincent Smith and more. Not Blake Corum - replacement level Michigan RBs. Both staffs said this! So Cox graduated and then ran off to try a lower level of competition for his 5th year -- where he also struggled, despite being more talented than everyone around him and maybe one of the most physically talented guys in all of FBS.
So - it seems like what you are seeing at RB doesn't line up very well with what coaches are seeing. Maybe they are wrong yet again. But maybe not. A lot of fans see results (as manifest in YPC) and then create a narrative to justify it and then internalize that. 2020 and Harbaugh is different example of that - albeit nothing to do with RB.
I think a great litmus test for eye test vs results was folks reaction to Blake Corum's freshman year -- there was a real split there between people who saw 2YPC or whatever it was and people who got hyped because they watched how he moved, noted that he earned carries in a talented backfield, and recognized the opportunities just weren't there for him to put up the numbers. I think a similar litmus test is Donovan Edwards in 2023 getting dissed by a large segment of the fanbase after a few mediocre games. But Edwards finishes the year at 4.2 YPC to Blake the Great's 4.8 YPC and over 700 yards in a backup role plus a couple of massive TDs in the national title game.
I would call that vindication. I would say he defeated the narratives. I would say he stayed true to his belief in himself and the team. He was resilient. He struggled yes - with his role - without the big game breaking plays he experienced to close the 22 season - but not as a player. He knew he was good, always. Others will say he went from good to bad to good again, like flipping a light switch on and off and on again. I disagree with that. And again PFF did too. He was never a bad player.
I'm not a social media guy, so I don't know about fans dissing Edwards. What he has said though, has been either on par or more critical than anything I've read here or heard on M podcasts
DeleteLast night (to me) was further evidence of Edwards as a HR back: HUGE hole, huge results; take contact, go down. I said all year he needed to be schemed into opportunities, at least to build momentum & confidence. Edwards himself admits to confidence being shaken. Kudos to him for believing, and fighting through
I'll be more clear - I am talking about comments made by people here, not social media. It's the same stuff though. Even now he is still getting called a finesse back, a bad player, someone who goes down at first contact. Same stuff for years - he lacks balance, he lacks vision, he can't run between the tackles, more of a WR. I think the evidence is there - right in front of our faces - to contradict these narratives. But alright...
DeleteAgain JE we see the same things and hear the same words and interpret them very differently. Edwards has been resolute and positive. His on field struggles (getting less than he probably could have, perhaps less than many other backs would have) were limited to a few games early in the year. Coming off the close of 2022 and the expectations that created, it's going to FEEL disappointing, naturally. I tried to tell everyone in the countdown that the Edwards expectations were overheated unless Blake got hurt again. Indeed, we saw Edwards reprise his same role and same workload and same production that we saw in 2022 before Blake got hurt. The change was in the context not the player -- Blake was healthy or he wasn't -- that's what changed.
Donovan the player was the same guy we saw in 2022 against Purdue and OSU, probably a bit better since all that offseason work and all those practice reps probably built him up a bit if anything. Same guy the coaches trusted to run between the tackles as a freshman against OSU. Same guy the coaches kept feeding the ball even when the results didn't show up in the early season of 2023.
Donovan felt the weight of the change in production for him. Naturally, because we know these kids see the headlines and the narratives just like we do. But he got over it quickly. We talked about it in October!
Donovan to his credit has said, repeatedly, and for months that he is confident despite the INDIVIDUAL results not being where he would like them to be. His confidence in himself was NOT lost. His role changed and the results wavered, but he stuck through it. He said that in October. His contribution and commitment to the TEAM never wavered. The coaches never lost trust. He never lost faith. Some fans did, others didn't.
Quoting myself in August:
Delete"Edwards averaged less than 10 carries a game last year when Corum was healthy. 130 carries on the season would be an increase from his pace last year. Unless Corum gets hurt. The 140 carries that Edwards got last year, more than half of them came in the final 3 games when Corum was injured. Corum getting hurt changed the narrative. If that hadn't happened people would still be saying Edwards wasn't ready for primary back duties."
https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2023/08/2023-season-countdown-13-donovan-edwards.html
The funny part, that I didn't anticipate in August, was that people would revert to saying Edwards wasn't worthy of being a primary back once Blake returned.
Before that post's convo got derailed into another "do RBs matter" debate, it was about expectations for Edwards. Thunder and others saw 7YPC and 1000 yard season and expected a "part-time" starter role from Edwards. I disagreed. I saw a guy who would return to being Blake's backup. That's how it played out. I caught a lock of flack in the comments but everything I said was true.
He did not have to get worse as a player for that to happen. It was literally a rerun of what already happened! The retro-rationalization of Edwards returning to his backup role because he got worse doesn't make sense, just like the preseason expectations didn't make sense.
I do not think he was a worse player. Donovan Edwards did not think he was a worse player. The coaches did not think he was a worse player. NFL scouts do not think he is a worse player.
Donovan is what he showed us in '21, '22, and '23 -- an elite backup RB who is ready to step up when called upon. We can quibble at how good he is about short yardage, how polished his blocking is, how valuable his pass catching skills are, or which playcalls best suit his skillset. All of that is talking about style points. Regardless of the details. Donovan Edwards is an excellent college RB and he always has been.
@ Lank
DeleteI'm going to skip the Cox debate, because I'm tired of it. I only bring it up - and it's not about him, but about the numbers - to say that using YPC is not the only thing I use when evaluating running backs.
Edwards had 14 games to do something significant at RB this season, and he didn't do it. Most players' seasons are done after 13 games or so. If this were an average season for most teams, he would have been stuck at 3.4 yards/carry with no runs longer than 14 yards.
But he got a 14th game.
And then a 15th game. And he finally had a couple long runs.
By the way...this also kills the narrative that Edwards needs a bunch of carries to "get in a rhythm" or whatever BS some people were spewing, and I don't think that bodes well for your argument, either. Even though you weren't making that exact argument.
It turns out running backs can make good runs at any given time. They don't need 15+ or 20+ carries to do good things. So even though Edwards didn't get a bunch of carries in a game to blow up this year - like he did against PSU, OSU, Purdue, etc. last year - he could have done it. He just waited until carry #114 of the season before he made something happen.
Don Edwards YPC
DeleteIn games with 15 or more carries:
2021: NA
2022: 7.9 YPC in 5 games
2023: NA
In games with less than 15 carries:
2021: 5.0 YPC
2022: 4.8 YPC
2023: 4.2 YPC
Perhaps the conclusion here is that Edwards is a rhythm runner but I would argue that whatever "struggles" he faced are, first and foremost, role dependant. His struggles are the "struggles" of Michael Barrett or Mike Sainristil or Trente Jones - guys who were humbled, started and then lost their spot as circumstances around them changed - not because they got worse.
They each adapted their individual ambitions as the team's need changed. Would not be accurate to say those player who played poorly or was fundamentally flawed in some way. Stuff that was out of their control changed and they questioned their fit in that space - but they stayed confident and resilient and thrived.
Barret started every game as a viper in 2020, lost his job when that job disappeared and became a special teamer and minor backup, fought back and became an all conference LB and likely NFL draft pick.
Jones won a starting job in 2022, lost it to injury mid year and saw portal transfers take his spot in 2023. It took an injury to open it back up but there he was as the guy to close the 2023 season run against OSU, Iowa, Alabama, and Washington.
Sainristil was a starting WR in 2020 and 2021 but with Ronnie Bell, Roman Wilson, and Cornelius Johnson he was going to move to the bench in 2022.... or move positions. I was as doubtful as anyone could be - but he did the damn thing.
If DE elects to return for a senior year like those guys did (let alone 5th or 6th years) I believe his individual star will shine brightly again, as theirs did, brighter than ever.
@Thunder
Delete"using YPC is not the only thing I use when evaluating running backs."
Understood and I agree. I just don't see much difference in your assessments beyond what YPC tells us. Since you use it (irregularly but often) as evidence to validate your views, I'm equating these things. But again, I agree. I know you are watching the games and I know you aren't afraid to have a different perspective. It's why I've been reading this blog for years. I respect that.
"Edwards had 14 games to do something significant at RB this season"
Edwards was a backup to Blake Corum who was healthy all year. He had an entire season in 2021 and he had a half season in 2022 and he didn't do much when Blake Corum was healthy then either. That's a career long thing -- Edwards isn't doing much when Blake is healthy* (*yes I know he had a big day vs PSU in 2022, but he got 16 carries that day and got that many zero times in 2023.)
Yesterday was an exception but generally speaking Don didn't do much when he didn't get a lot of touches and he shined whenever he did. It's not complicated. You grab a RB for a handful of carries he might not do much. Even Blake had some quiet days this year when he didn't get as many touches. Doesn't mean he played bad.
"It turns out running backs can make good runs at any given time."
Well here I will just go ahead and agree with you flat out. I don't think the rhythm thing is a big deal necessarily. It's a narrative - but it might be hogwash.
But let's take your statement and consider the inverse is true as well. Running backs can "make" bad runs at any given time. The OL and the playcall and the defense are much bigger factors than the guy. Give a guy 5-8 carries and those things probably don't balance out - give him 20+ and they probably will.
If you want to craft a different narrative here is one:
Donovan Edwards since PSU in 23: 5.9 YPC
Donovan Edwards before PSU in 23: 3.1 YPC
+2.8YPC
Donovan Edwards since PSU in 22: 7.6 YPC
Donovan Edwards before PSU in 22: 5.0 YPC
+2.6YPC
Maybe Don just thrives when the competition gets going. Maybe he's a second half type of player. Or maybe he just doesn't think the season really starts until he sees James Franklin on the other sideline. LOL
IDK -- but it's pretty clear that Edwards didn't struggle until game 15.
It's just factually inaccurate to say Edwards struggled until game 15 or was bad until the national championship.
DeleteCheck the stats, check PFF, check MGO. Don has been playing well since the early season.
Definitive evidence is in the playing time decision of the coaching staff against OSU. That means WAY more than YPC or a fans take. Edwards had 25 snaps to 35 for Corum against OSU.
We already KNOW the coaches will give 80% of snaps to one guy if think there's a big dropoff to his backup -- we saw it with HH, with Blake, with DE when they were starters. That's not what was happening this year, even in a game that was competitive and critical throughout like OSU.
Don had the coaches trust because he was playing well. If you didn't see that until yesterday, that's a you thing, not an Edwards thing.
@ Lank 3:37 p.m.
DeleteIf you feel that way, that's fine. I disagree.
@ Lank 3:36 p.m.
DeleteEdwards didn't do much in 2021 or 2022 when Corum was healthy?
2022 vs. Rutgers: 15 carries, 109 yards
2022 vs. PSU: 16 carries, 173 yards, 2 TD
2022 vs. CSU: 12 carries, 64 yards, 1 TD
2021 vs. Maryland: 10 catches, 170 yards, 1 TD
This year his best game was 10 carries for 52 yards and 1 TD against Penn State.
Corum was out for Maryland '21. That's one of the big examples that is relevant to my point. When given a bigger workload - he has thrived.
DeleteCSU and Rutgers '22 were blowouts against overmatched opponents. I don't put much weight on that but OK the stats are what they are. Rutgers was competitive for a while and was one of the few games in his career where he got 15 carries. Ditto PSU which I mentioned in my post.
Your arguments are kind of what I mean by looking at YPC (and counting stats dependant on volume) too heavily. You say they are reflective of your eye test but counting 64 yards against CSU as a notable accomplishment to me is missing the point. Isn't it far more meaningful that he was playing 25 snaps vs OSU this year while Corum was healthy?
Edwards yardage numbers are not impressive at face value -- 10 carries / 31 yards. 2 catches / 5 yards. No TDs. But look beyond the box score? Did he play well against a top 5 team, an elite run defense, in a critical situation? By all accounts -- Yes!
PFF snaps/grades for that game:
Blake Corum - 35 / 73.3
Donovan Edwards - 25 / 67.5
Kalel Mullings - 5 / 64.3
UFR:
Corum +4.5 Iconic.
Edwards +2.5 Some tough running.
Mullings 0 No carries.
I don't want to rehash relative strengths and weaknesses of Edwards vs Corum or Mullings but what I argued early in the season when you were knocking Edwards saying he was playing poorly proved out.
"I wholeheartedly disagree with the assertion that Edwards stinks, got worse in the offseason, or lost his vision in the offseason, or anything else like that. He is the same back in my view. Perhaps he is playing not as well as last year but while his YPC is half of what it is was that does NOT mean he is half the player that he was. I think it COULD be entirely variance and if it isn't entirely variance, it's mostly variance, which will play out as he gets more carries the rest of the year. I'll eat more eggs than Cool Hand Luke if he finishes the year below 4ypc."
https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2023/10/michigan-45-nebraska-7.html
Given enough snaps I was confident the results would follow. Now I'll admit it took a lot longer than I expected. Part of that is that Corum stayed healthy, Mullings emerged as a factor at RB3, and Michigan played a lot of very competitive games. The surprising thing to me is that Nebraska game would be Edwards season high in number of carries. That he got to above 4 ypc was not surprising.
What I said on this topic 3 months ago held up in the end. Edwards playing poorly did not.
@ Lank 6:36 p.m.
DeleteWe talked for the entire season about the running backs - as we often do - and basically for the entire year, you kept referring back to the end of 2022 as proof that Edwards was a good running back. You had virtually nothing to hang your hat on in 2023. If Tavierre Dunlap or Leon Franklin were getting that many carries and doing the same stuff, I think you would have joined the chorus of, "Holy crap, Michigan has to recruit someone for 2024 or find a transfer or something! We can't find a #2 back who can break a tackle or a big run once in a while?" Take the name "Edwards" off the back of his jersey and give him a 3-star profile and offers from Syracuse and Rutgers, and you're not going to these lengths to defend him.
There was nothing in 2023 to make anyone think that the guy wearing #7 in Michigan's backfield was anything special. We could go round and round on this, but if that guy's jersey said "Dunlap" on the back for the first 14 games of the season, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
Less than 24hrs after winning the National Championship, and Lank wants to argue about Edwards ... ignoring Edwards own comments
DeleteOn to the off-season
@Thunder
DeleteI do "hang my hat" on Edwards performance as a starter at the end of 2022. Pretty meaningful, isn't it?
But that's not the only "hat". There is the 5 star pedigree that you hung onto for many years with guys like Villain and Isaac - solid players in the end but not ones whose performance warranted it. But that's not the end of it -- there's his performance in 2021, which you and JE were fairly dismissive of, but I saw as meaningful if nothing else for the fact that he broke into that rotation in the first place (i.e., trust the coaches on personnel). And then, jumping to 2023, I saw better performance than the stats indicated and continue to see more value than you see in pass catching rather than rushing yardage being the primary thing.
Those are ALL things that are true for Edwards and not true for Dunlop or Franklin. Talent, pass catching, coaching decisions. So if the production at the end of 2022 wasn't enough (it should be!) there's all of that.
"There was nothing in 2023 to make anyone think that the guy wearing #7 in Michigan's backfield was anything special"
If you look at the results as a runner that is true. If you watch the games and value pass catching and consider coaching judgement it is not. This is a guy who took snaps from Blake Corum all damn season long including meaningful situations.
But even THAT requires you to pretend like 2022 didn't happen. It definitely did. It's just a matter of how you react to and interpret "struggles" in limited carries. Don had 68 carries in 3 games as a starter in 2022. He had fewer than that through mid November this season by which point you had already decided he was playing poorly. I chose to look at the big picture and see variance in results as a natural part of the game while you choose to believe in the "hot hand" theory of RB play where guys can get better or worse depending on whatever is going on at the moment.
And yeah I'm defending Edwards now but remember that in the preseason I was the one saying he was getting overrated (in terms of importance to the team and contributions to it). I was right then and I think I'm right now.
So I would flip this comment around and say if YOU hadn't had the unrealistic expectations in the preseason (which I called out and got roasted for trying to ground in reality) YOU wouldn't be sitting here saying that guy didn't play good. If it was Isiah Gash or Leon Franklin YOU would be sitting here talking about how great he played and what an impact he made and how he kept Blake Corum fresh all year. If you set the dial to 1000 yard rusher and part-time starter, you're going to see "bad" and if you set the dial to "backup RB again behind Blake" you're going to see "good".
Everything yall said in the preseason was wrong. Edwards was not BOOM/BUST - he was a productive backup that broke very few big plays on the year. Edwards WAS good between the tackles - he rushed for over 4 YPC not far off Blake on the season, doing almost entirely between the tackles stuff. He did start one game (in a 2 back set with Blake against Iowa) so I don't know if that's what you mean by "part-time starter" but maybe you get a point there?
It is what it is. I think you misread Edwards again and you disagree. Don't think this is going anywhere. All I can do is shrug and see what the future holds but it doesn't really matter - even if Edwards rushes for a 1,000 yards as a rookie in the NFL or 2,000 as a returning bellcow for Michigan you will say he developed and got better after being bad or unexceptional in 2022. I'll continue to say that he's a very good back, not as good as Blake, whose production depends on context.
I was listening to The Athletic's Prospects to Pros podcast this morning, and they were reviewing NFL prospects in the championship game. This was Dane Brugler and Nate Tice, so they're NFL draft guys, not Michigan guys or Ohio State slappies or anything.
DeleteThey brought up Edwards, and I swear Nate Tice said something like, "That first Donovan Edwards run was vintage Edwards. Crappy vision, explosive as hell." Brugler went on to say it's been a disappointing season for Edwards, but that he might try to ride the wave of his big runs against Washington into leaving for the NFL.
Again, that stuff isn't coming from me. It's coming from (relatively) unbiased national draft guys. So you say PFF/UFR are more definitive, that Edwards "factually" hasn't played poorly...but there are differing opinions, and not just from me.
@JE
DeleteLess than 24hrs after winning the National Championship, and JE wants to talk about Lank. 2024 looks a lot like 2023. #Obsessed.
Edwards comments reflect my opinion. He remains confident in his abilities. He understands context and puts team over self. He is positive and optimistic. You hear something else, because you want to.
@Thunder 1125
DeleteThanks for sharing that but I wonder how much it matters. You'll recall that with Rashan Gary folks were asking some of those production-related question WRT his pass rush. In that case, PFF grade was actually in agreement.
Did it harm his draft stock? Seemingly not. He went 12th overall near the top of round 1.
Did it harm his NFL production? Seemingly not. He signed a $100 million contract and is one of the better starting Edges in the NFL.
There's a couple different viable narratives. 1 is that Gary was underutilized at Michigan or that he underperformed in college before being developed by the NFL. 2 is that Gary played a role as an anchor in Don Brown's system that didn't get him the stats/production but that the talent/ability was always there.
In my eyes, 2 is the clear winner. Especially because we saw Aiden Hutchinson's production through 3 years mirror almost identically to Rash an Gary's through 3 years. It was only in year 4, post-Don Brown, where Hutch exploded. We're talking about 2 of the best pass rushers in the NFL that produced not all that much at Michigan under context (Don Brown). At least statistically - they graded out well and thrived for those of us paying attention to Michigan closely.
Both got drafted in top of the 1st round and both are thriving in the NFL at similar levels, even though Hutch finished his college career with a stellar 4th year that was Heisman caliber and made it more obvious to PFF and NFL analyst types while Gary was painted as a limited pass rusher.
All of that is to say I think NFL scouts are generally less focused on college production than NFL analysts (who are ultimately there to entertain us, not be accountable to results). I think NFL scouts are a lot more focused on the big picture while NFL draft analysts are a lot more on generating something to talk about. "Is Rashan Gary a poor pass rusher?" is going to get clicks but the Packers didn't care.
What does that have to do with Edwards? -- I don't think Edwards stock has moved much at all relative to last year. Edwards burst, speed, and pass catching are enough to be an impact RB and anything else can be worked on. But if it has lowered his stock (maybe NFL guys wanted to see more as a rusher) -- bully for us! If it means he is coming back to UM for another year then I'm all for these narratives LOL
@ Lank 1:04 p.m.
DeleteRegarding draft stock, only time will tell if/where Edwards gets drafted, whether it's 2024 or 2025. What I do know is that there are not many running backs who produce that little before getting drafted high.
Alvin Kamara is the big example - and an apt one considering his pass catching ability - of a guy who was underused in college, but he had 596 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground the year before he got drafted. Edwards would be coming off a season where he had 497 yards and 5 touchdowns.
I don't want to say that would be unprecedented, and I don't expect you to do the research...but I think you would be hard-pressed to find a highly valued RB who had less production and still got drafted. I'm sure there are some 6th or 7th rounders out there who got injured as seniors or who are projects or something, maybe position switchers, but Edwards would be a bit of an anomaly.
I am not hard pressed at all. I have a couple examples from fairly recent Michigan history who have done less and been drafted that come to mind immediately. But let's start with Edwards
DeleteEdwards - 2,376 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs in 3 seasons
1. Michael Cox had 953 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs in 5 years
granted, he was drafted primarily to return kicks but nonetheless he ended up playing some RB
2. Chris Evans had 2,274 yards and 17 TDs in 5 years (1 of which was spent under suspension)
Those are just Michigan examples off the top of my head -- I'm sure there are many more.
If you want to ignore 2021 and 2022 (which, why would the NFL do that LOL?) and only pay attention to one season, both those examples still hold up.
Edwards had 745 yards this season.
Cox had 773 in his final season (at FCS UMASS).
Evans had his final year 160.
Evans' production was in just 6 games in 2020, but it was still fewer than 30 yards per game, way below Edwards per game production this year. Evans career high was 842 yards which is certainly less than Edwards 1,191 yard season in '22.
Oh OK I see you said "draft high". Well I don't know what that means exactly but TCU's RB got drafted after last season with 2,639 yards and 27 TDs in 3 seasons. That's a bit more yardage and substantially more TDS...but he wasn't sitting behind Blake Corum his entire career.
Dallas RB star Tony Pollard was drafted in the 4th round with 2,233 yards and 18 TDs in 4 years.
This doesn't seem remotely close to unprecedented. Edwards has done more than enough to get drafted and truth be told, he had already done enough a year ago.
.
Mike Cox got draft
This exercise is a lot easier if you pretend like receiving yards count just like rushing yards. If only the NFL counted things that way. Oh wait...
DeleteSorry for the snark but really. Edwards is getting drafted if he goes pro. I hope he returns instead but he's a no-brainer draft choice on potential alone. And potential is what the draft is about.
Delete@ Lank 8:27 p.m.
DeleteUMass was an FBS school when Cox got drafted.
Also, as I acknowledged, there are guys who get picked in the 6th/7th round who don't do much. I talked about guys who were valued/drafted highly, so 6th rounder Chris Evans, 7th rounder Michael Cox, etc. aren't really a factor in the equation.
Do you have any examples of guys getting picked in the top half of the draft who had such little rushing production in their final year? Tony Pollard had 552 yards and 6 touchdowns (1,010 yards and 9 touchdowns total) before he got drafted, and he wasn't even a high draft pick.
Edwards would be an anomaly if he got picked in the top 3 rounds with so little rushing production in 2023. Hopefully that statement is clearer.
IDK if Edwards is going in the top 3 rounds.
DeleteIDK is Corum is going in the top 3 rounds either.
Hassan Haskins didn't.
There were only 7 RBs drafted in the top 3 rounds last year. 6 the year before that.
Pollard was drafted in the 4th round. Chase Brown (who ran for over 1600 yards last year) was drafted in the 5th round. I just don't see the same connection you do.
But OK - if you're goal is to be one of the top 5-7 RBs picked and go in the top 3 rounds, I'll agree that generally speaking NFL teams will prefer guys who have produced rushing yardage and not just draft on pure potential. That's more typical for later rounds.
There's a bigger issue here though. Even if you buy your premise -- that draft status is based largely on rushing yardage productivity over career yards from scrimmage -- it's still hard to make a case that Edwards or any other RB is well served by a goal of getting drafted high by following that path.
DeleteIf you're walking in Donovan Edwards shoes -- does draft status really matter? The number of RBs going in Round 1 is TINY. You can try, but it's highly unlikely you reach the Gibbs/Robinson territory. You have to bet on yourself having a great year in college to achieve it - heisman caliber. Not easy! Even if you set aside all the concerns/limitation you all have voiced on Edwards ability.
In a best realistic scenario you can hope you hold off Kaleel Mullings and others, stay healthy, put up over 1K yards on the ground, and then get drafted in the 2nd round. Bet on yourself to stay healthy, avoid an injury, and have the team around you to facilitate a great season statistically. OR you can be tony pollard, chase brown, chris evans, isiah pacheco, cox and get drafted in later rounds. Then get an opportunity to show what you can do as a pro.
That's a different bet on yourself. But the financial payoff is fairly clear, in the opposite direction of what most folks tend to assume.
Let's look at 2 guys in the same 2021 draft and their contracts:
6th round pick Chris Evans (202nd overall) contract - 4 years/ $3.7M
2nd round pick Javonte Williams (35th overall, fringe 1st) - 4 years/ $8.8M
You can say "wow that's more than twice as much money" - and it is. Neither of US is in a position to shrug off $4 or 5M dollars. But let's be real -- both of these guys are playing for that second contract, not the first.
They need to look at career earnings, not just rookie contracts. The difference $1M per year on rookie deal is peanuts to guys who are good enough to start and earn free agent contracts. A mid rotational RB like Jamaal Wiliams gets $4M per year. An excellent pass catching back like Austin Ekler makes $6M. Tony Pollard makes $10M.
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/dallas-cowboys/tony-pollard-29176/cash-earnings/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-chargers/austin-ekeler-22247/cash-earnings/
The NFL rookie contracts are very top heavy (big money at the top of round 1) but then tail off very quickly to where the difference between rounds 2 and 6 is not all that big of a deal financially -- particularly for anyone who believes that they will be getting that 2nd contract. And again, very few RBs are going in the top 2 rounds so you have to be a big time optimist to expect that. Even if you have a big year -- you're probably looking at mid rounds 3rd-5th for the best RBs in college, anyone outside a tiny minority of standouts who ALSO have elite physical traits (namely, speed).
For all the talk about devaluation of RBs in the NFL, 13 guys signed $2M/year or more deal last offseason. The drafted RBs getting $2M/year was 2 this year and 2 last year. And that's assuming they don't get cut....
In other words if you want to make real money and bet on yourself, the more viable path is being a NFL starter drafted below Round 3 then a guy cashing in on his rookie contract.
Why am I going down this rabbit hole? Draft position is overrated. I know it matters to people but it's a goal primarily because it's the next step in the path. Ultimately, it's symbolic celebration of immediate gains - transitioning between getting paid in the pros and not getting paid as an amatuer. (A line that is currently blurred by NIL as many RBs will be looking at pay cuts on draft night LOL.)
Like starz, draft spot is a useful predictive tool in aggregate but once the pads start popping it stops mattering. It doesn't actually matter on the field.
If Edwards wants to move up from (extremely hypothetically and for the sake of argument) round 6 to round 2 draft status by rushing for more yards in 2024 -- he can perhaps do that. In a best case scenario. He might earn $4 or $5M dollars more on his rookie deal by doing so! He might even pick up another million or so in NIL money in the meantime. Ka-ching Ka-ching - right!?
DeleteNot really - the cost of delaying that entry to the NFL and thus his entry into free agency might be costing him $10M if he's Tony Pollard or $6M if he's Austin Eckler or net out as neutral he's Jamal Williams. That's all ignoring the injury risk experienced by guys like Zinter, Ojabo, Butt, etc.
So what does Don have to gain by trying to prove himself as more of a Corum/Charbonnet (ground productive 2nd/3rd rounder) and less of an Eckler/Pacheco/Evans (pass catching 5th/6th rounder)? Maybe some less champagne and media attention on draft night. What's that worth to him?
Coming off a natty - with his talent and pro potential - I know what I would choose. But if he values graduating from UM and having a bigger legacy in AA or simply just wants to enjoy another invaluable year of college life -- maybe he'll choose to return.
The most relevant example that comes to my head is not from football but basketball. In 2010 Eric Bledsoe (a 5-star recruit) was drafted with the 18th pick overall despite very modest production in college (11 points per game 3 rebounds 3 assists in 1 season). The reason for that -- he shared a backcourt with John Wall - an all american and the number 1 draft pick.
DeleteWe are not talking about some 7 foot center oozing physical potential - Bledsoe was 6'1. No way is any guard averaging only 10 ppg and 3 assists in college getting drafted that high under normal circumstances, but playing beside Wall was a unique context. Bledsoe showed enough (playing a secondary/complementary role) that the NBA saw past production and if anything appreciated that he could adapt from being The Man to playing next to The Man.
NFL scouts will have a choice of looking at Edwards production as a backup in 2023 or looking at his body of work, team-first mentality, and physical talents. If he clearly outshines Corum in the combine it will be very interesting to me to see who goes higher. I'll just say I wouldn't be shocked either way.
@ Lank
DeleteI appreciate all the research, and you have a point. It's just that none of it refutes my point from up above that backs who produce so little just aren't highly valued by the NFL coming out of college. We were talking about draft stock, and as far as I can tell, you haven't been able to identify a single back who has ~497 rushing yards the year before getting drafted in the top few rounds.
So yes, he can go to the NFL right now. History suggests that he will get drafted in the bottom half of the NFL Draft. I gave you evidence of a couple NFL scout types (Tice, Brugler) having pretty big questions about Edwards's vision, which is something I have been talking about for a while. And I'm not the only one.
You said he "factually" was playing well, but Nate Tice, Dane Brugler, and Thunder disagree with you, UFR, and PFF.
So there is no "factual" there. He's missing cuts, he's not breaking tackles, etc.
All this talk about being drafted late and aiming for a second contract is fine and good, and if Edwards's goal is to be Isaiah Pacheco, that's his prerogative. The last I heard, he said he wanted to be spoken of in the same breath as Barry Sanders and Walter Payton, but if Isaiah Pacheco and Tony Pollard are the new benchmarks for him...well, there's a lot of moving the goalposts going on here.
@Anon
DeleteBefore we talk about moving the goalposts I'd like to understand if the "goalpost" is NFL draft position or NFL success. They have no causal relationship, as we've seen with Chris Perry and Tom Brady.
I can guarantee you that being drafted high and then sucking in the NFL are not Edwards goals. A HOF career is something Edwards can achieve regardless of where he is drafted. Draft status is irrelevant to that objective. They are entirely separate.
If it's draft position there's not much disagreement. There is agreement Edwards can go to the draft if he wants. There is agreement he isn't likely going in the top 3 rounds, given his role/production.
Though I would argue it's definitely possible. Tony Pollard (552 yards on the ground) went in the 4th round. Edwards has done more in 3 years (yards and TDs) than Pollard did in 4. He did it at a better program, playing better competition. He did it on team that made the playoff each of his 3 years and won the national title in his last year -- where he played a starring role. Pollard did not play behind a heisman caliber RB and Pollard did not produce ~600 yards in 3 starts against OSU, Purdue, and TCU. Edwards has the 5-star pedigree too. Edwards is a better, more accomplished and more productive prospect than Pollard, who is an NFL all-pro and just missed being in the top half of the draft.
But if we're talking about being an NFL HOF player, the question of production and draft status is irrelevant. The example of Barry Sanders, the greatest RB of all time IMO, is instructive. He sat in college with 2 modest seasons 325 yards from scrimmage and 661 yards from scrimmage because...he was Thurman Thomas' backup. Thomas left and his stats exploded. Just like Edwards (not that I think Edwards is nearly on Sanders level, to be clear.) stats exploded with Corum.
The point here is that the accusation of modest production was irrelevant, because of his role. In a different role (without Thomas) he shined. Just like Edwards shined without Corum.
Now you and Thunder will assert that Sanders needed that final college season (2,600 yards rushing in 1988 ) to go in the top 5 of the draft. And you're probably right about that. But if he had stopped in 1987 (600 yards rushing) would Barry Sanders still have been drafted? would he still have been a HOF RB? No reason to think not.
So if we are talking about what matters to Edwards most - it does not seem especially relevant to me to obtusely boil down Edwards' resume to 497 yards on the ground. That's not how the NFL will look at it nor should we. As for performance - Tice/Bugler/Thunder are not evaluating that. They are evaluating draft position.
These are 3 distinct things -- college performance, NFL draft position, NFL performance. They cannot be conflated into 1, even if correlation between some of them is common, because a lack of correlation is more common.
@ Lank 1:35 p.m.
DeleteI'm not really sure what we're arguing at this point, because these discussions end up going all over the place, so I'm going to say a few things concisely before I wrap up my end of this discussion:
1. Donovan Edwards said he wanted to be like Barry Sanders and Walter Payton. Sanders (#3 overall pick) and Payton (#4) were highly valued by the NFL. Even with the devaluation of running backs, Edwards is not on their level at this point.
2. Yes, Hall of Fame careers can come from undrafted or lowly drafted players. However, chances of making the HOF dwindle the later someone gets drafted.
3. Edwards has struggled...both in my opinion and the opinion of many others. There's evidence aplenty, while acknowledging that yes, he did have a couple explosive plays in the national championship game. If you think he has played well, we're just not going to agree.
1. Agree that Edwards is not a top 5 pick. Disagree that Edwards was talking about draft position when he made the statement.
Delete“I’ll be up there with Walter Payton, Barry Sanders. I believe I will revolutionize the game and the position. This is the perfect time for me because the NFL wants running backs who can catch."
2. Edwards is who Edwards is. Better athletes tend to get taken higher in the draft than lesser athletes. Getting taken higher does not make better players. Causality matters and getting drafted higher will help Edwards in no way whatsoever (though it would help his check-book potentially. If anything, getting taken lower can drive some people to work harder (like Brady and Amon St Brown) and demotivate some talented athletes who can get distracted or think they "made it" thanks to fame, attention and money.
3. Edwards played well in 2023, in my opinion and the opinion of many others. Including the coaches of the national championship michigan wolverines.
Even you acknowledge that Edwards played well enough to be drafted. Even though he was a backup. Everything you are talking about is RELATIVE to your expectations. We had a similar debate about Rashan Gary, who went in the first round and is a successful pro.
If the goalpost is "this guy did not play well enough to be a top 5 NFL pick" -- then every player on the national championship team fell short of the mark. What a bunch of failures these guys are. LOL
If the goalpost is getting drafted in the top 3 rounds -- a handful of our guys will hit that mark - maybe 4 or 5? The vast majority will not. None of our backups are even in the conversation for getting drafted in the top 3 rounds....except 1.
What really surprises me is that after arguing for the last decade on behalf of speedier backs like Michael Shaw, Michael Cox, and Ty Isaac -- players who were faster and more likely to generate big plays on the ground than some of their competition, but seemingly lacked some of the other elements and between the tackles reliability -- that your perspective on Edwards is so excessively negative.
DeleteEdwards is not only faster and more skilled than any of those guys -- he is also more productive! He breaks more big plays then them, he fumbles less then them, he catches better than any RB in Michigan history, and he earned our coaches trust more than any of them. AND he played/competed with better RBs than them.
But here you are saying he is struggling. While those guys were deserving of more playing time. I find that very odd. It's tough not to look at that and think it's all about YPC.
@ Lank 5:54 p.m.
DeleteThat argument just doesn't really encapsulate what I've been saying at all. Probably my first big public stance came in favor of playing Brandon Minor - a tough, physical back - over Sam McGuffie, who was known for his speed/quickness.
I would not classify Michael Cox as a speedy back, and though he did have a big play in the spring game, the first thing that really turned me on to him was a physical run against Eastern Michigan where he showed nice balance/physicality.
Yes, I like backs with some speed, but it doesn't do much good if you go down on first contact most of the time.
Some folks either misinterpret or misrepresent a number from PFF or MGoBlog. Why don't they agree on OL grading? Why would Josh Wallace have a higher score than DMVP Will Johnson? The scoring itself is subjective
DeleteDon't take the number and ignore the observations & comments, whether raving or criticizing. MGo regularly questions how Edwards is used, and even clowns on his vision during that first TD run. While 'straightline speed' and potential for explosive plays are compliments, I can't find any source speaking highly about Edwards physical toughness, tackle breaking, or even vision. Contrast that to what we hear from the same guys about Mullings, and it's all about his setting up blocks, shooting through the line of scrimmage, and running through/over would be tacklers
This is not to say they think Mullings is better or more valuable, but that both RBs are different, and how they are used does in fact matter
As for Edwards, he has conceded to the frustrations, worry, and mental health he dealt with. Corum & JJ talked Don up during their BTN post game for the same: he struggled this year, stuck with it, and persevered. You know what no one else is saying? That Edwards had a great or even good year. Even his position coach said "look who finally showed up"
If there's another football personality out there who agrees The Don had a great, good or even satisfactory year, I have not seen, heard or read it
I hope he returns, and our OL is able to create giant holes for Edwards. I also hope the coaches get a little more creative with him. He's a special talent, but should not be limited in his use to typical Harball; that's just not his strength
@Thunder
DeleteI agree with you about speed. I think it's one of the most overrated elements of a RB. Guys like Mike Hart and Deveon Smith can get chased down from behind and that's going to put a cap on their YPC but it doesn't matter because they're consistently getting extra yards via tackle avoidance/breaking. The times when RBs get to run in a straight line unfettered are rare.
But of course the big plays have their value as well, I just prefer the reliable/consistent thing in my RBs. The speed part becomes more important if your OL is dominating and irrelevant if it's struggling.
@JE
DeleteSometimes the data is more telling than the narratives. Sometimes the data is misleading. The interpretation of the comments, takes, stats, and watching the games is what it comes down to. Par for the course, I think your interpretation is dead wrong.
It's been right before -- the people on this blog (at least the ones who were around then and remain around now) were not on the Fire Harbaugh train in 2020. As far as I can remember that includes you.
But on this you are wrong. The narrative on Don playing poorly and only showing up for the final game is wrong. Don's comments reflect that. The coaches decisions reflect that. The "analytics" - subjective as they are - reflect that.
The way to reach that conclusion is to focus on explosive runs and only explosive runs. Some people want to boil it down to just that -- that is how Don was defined to them, by them. Those people are wrong. Sorry to put it that bluntly, but it's true. Don is not just about explosive runs and explosive runs are not just about Don creating them out of thin air.
The other part of what you and other people are talking about, and consistently conflating with results, is expectations. Don not producing like 1st round NFL picks usually produce. Don being a backup is disappointment to many in and of itself. This was discussed in the countdown.
Anyone saying Don didn't have a good year is telling on themselves. Don had a great year. Watch the videos - look how happy the guy is. Listen to his words and you hear "blessing" and "joy" repeatedly. It's mid January and he's here celebrating and contemplating an NFL decision. This is what "unsatisfactory" look?
DeleteWell Don disagrees. Why? His team was successful and he played a massive part in that success. It's not about the rushing stats and if you think it is, you've missed the point. You don't understand team 144 and you never will. Putting team over self is what it's all about. If you don't understand that when The Team The Team The Team is program mantra... That's probably never going to change.
Don played a big role all year long. He was the 3rd down back and part of the rotation. He got tons of meaningful snaps. He had gravity to open up the offense for the team, he caught passes, he ran the ball. He broke tackles, he scored TDs, he ran inside, most of the time. Maybe he didn't run the ball how with the style you thought he should run the ball, in your narrow/invented definition of "harball".
Fact is that neither Don nor the coaches changed course. Greg Harden said don't do anything different. Mike Hart said don't change. Don said I'm just gonna go out there and be me. And he was right.
There's a lot of talk about team culture and character right now. It's easy to have good culture when everyone wins and things are going great.
A year ago JJ, Blake, Donovan, and Andrel Anthony all hung out on the field watching TCU celebrate. They soaked that shit in. Anthony considered it and bounced a few weeks later but JJ, Blake, and Donovan all hung around. Blake had nothing but accolades, deservedly so. Even when he "struggled" relative to last year and mgoblog and others created some narratives about him getting worse as a player (which I disagreed with all season long BTW) he had enough track record to be unassailable. As it should be. Edwards does not have that track record and has been dogged, by fans of this program, throughout his career, because he doesn't fit in the traditional box of a 1980s/1990s RB. Because he's not Jaimie Morris, Mike Hart, or 4th year Chris Perry, or Blake Corum.
No - Don's been resilient. He's displayed character when, for him, things haven't gone well at the individual level. People like him and Trente Jones and Blake (in the sense of staying in year 4 and putting team before self) and position-switchers like Barret, Sainristil, and Barnhart -- they're the ones who displayed character and culture through resilience. Through individual struggle.
The people knocking them the minute results aren't there, flip flopping from game to game, running hot and cold depending on the week...at least the Fire Harbaugh people were going off multiple years.
It's just very different than what this team was about. I think Edwards gets it fully and those saying he had a disappointing year don't.
I'm still waiting on an example. Media, Coach, teammate, draft analysis or Donovan himself who agrees that this season was a great performance. Plenty of examples pointing out the challenge, frustration & struggle
DeleteNo one is dogging Don. No one is questioning his character or commitment to the team, so that's another strawman. The Don has been an example for blue chip players who get their feelings hurt & give up. He was shaken up by this year, but credits his resilience to his faith & confidence in God. Spiritual strength carried him. It's an inspiring story
Go Blue. Onward
"This season was a great performance"
DeleteThey won a national title, 15-0. It does not get better.
"No one is dogging Don"
BS. Look two a couple comments up. You're arguing with him even being "good" this year. Even "satisfactory" performance is below average. Thunder says he didn't have a good year either. The guy was a top backup on a national champion, took workload off Blake Corum, is a sure-fire NFL pick, and you two are acting like he's some kind of liability.
Unsatisfactory? LOL Explain why the coaches played an unsatisfactory player all season and how they won a national title with an unsatisfactory back getting 1/3 of the workload. Maybe you think RBs don't matter. LOL
Boom/bust was a lie. Not good is a lie. Not satisfactory is a lie. It really doesn't matter how many people agree with you or don't agree with you because the results speak for themselves.
@JE
DeleteDon's faith is great and clearly helped him but he had tremendous unwavering support from coaching staff and team success to carry him forward too. You are right that more individual-focused people have wilted when it's not about them (ahem, Cade McNamara), but Don proved he understood the bigger picture. Your comments continue to contrast with Don's -- this season was a blessing. He has a big smile on his face.
If that's unsatisfactory, that's you projecting your own feelings.
Don had to deal with a lack of individual production when his role changed. That's not easy but he handled it and thrived and won out. He got the context and always expressed confidence in himself.
He's satisfied. I'm satisfied. The coaches are satisfied. NFL scouts are satisfied. Most fans are satisfied. I call that a lot better than satisfactory. But you see it different. Oh well.
So there are no examples of a great season for Don, not from media, coaches, teammates, draft analysts, or even himself. You used PFF & MGoBlog, and I've compared that to what they have to say (not great, and worse than anything here)
DeleteIt's not dogging Edwards to say it wasn't a very good year. If anything, it adds to the boom or bust rep: two great runs in the NC, one good one against iowa, and two against PSU. One game of 1oo yds, another of 52. 13 games under 4o(!) yards. That's not dogging him, it's simply acknowledging the numbers (without YPC)
As for your second post, do you have anything - from anyone incl Don - that this was an individually satisfactory performance year? I'll wait, but doubt it greatly
Don had a great season because he was a key cog on a great team. Trente had a great season. Wallace had a great season. Barner had a great season. Etc.
DeleteAre there "examples" of Don being not good on the season? Of him being unsatisfactory for the season? Or is it just people talking about their feelings/expectations?
Cuz I'm checking the stats and Don had 750 yards, 5 TDs, and ran for 4.2 YPC while making a couple highlight plays in the national championship games. Seems more than satisfactory to me, considering he was Blake Corum's backup. Not many backup RBs have put up numbers like that at Michigan.
People can move the goalposts all they want. Don is way more than satisfactory. He is well above good. He had a great year and chose to come back to do even more. It's Great To Be!
Moving the goalposts? You argue against YPC regularly, so I went with GameDay production
DeleteMoving the goalposts would be implying I said Don was unsatisfied. You say it was a great year, I ask for anyone or anything that agrees with this. You have not, so it's basically your opinion. I disagree, and point to what media, coaches & teammates say (and don't say). Even when Don talked about mental health, it was in response to a question about this season's "difficulties" ... not great or even good. You used MGo, but ignore that what they say is on par or worse than what's said here. They openly clown Don's vision
But your opinion is he had a great season. Cool. I hope it's even better next year
You can ask for whatever you want to ask for. I don't care.
DeleteI already told you what football pundits see Don as having a better than satisfactory year -- the Michigan football coaching staff.
You claim the coaches agree with you -- but they don't. They played Don all year. Never lost faith.
Don't "struggles" are always about his individual production which is transcended by the bigger picture of him understanding the team the team the team. Like I said above, if you don't understand by now you never will.
Don could rush for 2000 yards next year and it won't be as great as this season.
Well if the new standard is satisfactory - and winning the NC is the bar - I agree. Don had a VERY satisfactory year. A great year
DeleteSo did all the players & staff. Even stallions
GO BLUE
I was wrong, maybe you CAN still get it.
DeleteTeam success is the standard. People are concerned with individual accolades too, of course, but it's secondary especially the more team success you have and the better culture you have. This team was exceptional in the latter department so guys were especially unselfish, including Donovan.
Now step back and set aside the expectations on Edwards created by his 3 game run to close 2022, his excellent play as a backup besides that, and his recruiting hype. What do we call great/good/satisfactory production for a backup RB at Michigan?
Here's some history for context: looking back through the last 20 years let's see what the RB2 produced. Spoiler: Don's season stacks up very nicely.
Michigan RB2 by year
2004 - 132 yards, 1 TD (M. Martin)
2005 - 596 yards, 5 TD (K.Grady)
2006 - 247 yards, 2 TD (B.Minor)
2007 - 386 yards, 1 TD (B.Minor)
2008* - 661 yards, 4 TD (S.McGuffie)
2009 - 600 yards, 5 TDs (C.Brown)
2010 - 477 yards, 9 TDs (M.Shaw)
2011 - 447 yards, 4 TDs (V.Smith)
2012 - 248 yards, 4 TDs (T.Rawls)
2013 - 270 yards, 2 TDs (D.Green)
2014 - 497 yards, 3 TDs (D.Green)
2015 - 367 yards, 6 TDs (D.Johnson)
2016 - 701 yards, 4 TDs (C.Evans)
2017* - 842 yards, 7 TDs (C.Evans)
2018 - 571 yards, 5 TDs (C.Evans)
2019 - 662 yards, 4 TDs (H.Haskins)
2021 - 1,093 yards, 12 TDs (B.Corum)
2022* - 1,191 yards, 9 TDs (D.Edwards)
2023 - 746 yards, 5 TDs (D.Edwards)
* = part-time starter due to injury or extended competition
Donovan Edwards had the most productive season of any pure backup RB2 other than Blake Corum's 2021 season.
Conclusion: Edwards production (or lack thereof) is due to his role on the team, playing behind Blake Corum, the greatest RB in Michigan history. Otherwise he was one of the most productive backups in our history.
So even if you look at production and set the bar for typical RB2, Edwards still had a great year. Maybe argue "they played extra games!" (as if that's bad) and you can knock it down to a good year. Satisfactory? No question - and if that wasn't the case Kaleel Mullings would be getting a lot more than 87 snaps and 36 carries on the season.
2023: Edwards played 373 snaps. Corum played 469 snaps.
Edwards had a great year and now he's coming back to be the starter.
Whose got it better than us?
As I say, some either misinterpret or misrepresent info
DeleteI asked last week to compare Edwards PFF score to others, and no response. Well, here it is. Behind not just Corum but Mullings. Behind every starter except Barnhart & Henderson. Behind other role players incl Hinton & Morgan
A model teammate. On a historic championship team. But as far as individual performances go, eh
https://www.maizenbrew.com/2024/1/17/24040975/pff-grades-michigan-wolverines-college-football-pff-pro-football-focus-2023-season
Does the PFF score reflect an unsatisfactory performance? Does it indicate a bad season? A player who is struggling?
DeleteIf yes -- would you also say that about Cornelius Johnson and Trente Jones -- guys who started and had scores like Edwards? Hinton? Bredeson?
Or... objectively, is this telling you a story that Edwards played pretty well? Like Johnson, Jones, Hinton, Bredeson -- did he produce in his role?
I think that Edwards PFF score reflects the same thing that common sense and objective evaluation would tell you. Set aside your own inflated expectations for Edwards based on the close of 2022 and answer the question -- what's a good year for a backup RB look like?
DeleteDon't make it about Edwards personally. If you're a massive USC fan or Texas fan or Georgia fan who is casually paying attention to Michigan -- are you saying that was a great team but their backup RB was really unsatisfactory?
Of course not.
But that's the argument being made here
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Now, let's zoom way back in and talk about comparative PFF scores from a different angle.
Blake was better. He's Blake Duh. Mullings score was better too.
That's great -- but Mullings played a pretty limited role on this team (87 snaps). He did well with it and earned a role on the team.
Semaj Morgan's score was better than Roman Wilson's, Johnson, Loveland, and Barner. He did well and earned a role on the team as a freshman.
Does that mean Semaj Morgan was better than Wilson, Johnson, Loveland, and Barner?
Of course not. Ditto for Mullings.
They played well and earned snaps but we're not talking about Will Johnson or Rod Moore passing over proven starters by season's end here. Their roles remained specialized and complementary to the guys ahead of them.
The playing time reflects the reality that I think we all acknowledge. Morgan performed well but Loveland, Wilson, etc. are better players and that's why the coaches put them out there more.
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Facts:
Edwards PFF score is good (analysis on per play basis).
Edwards played a lot (snap count tells you what coaches think).
Edwards produced in his role (700+ yards, 5 TDs, starring role in champ game).
Edwards was a major contributor on a massively successful team and produced well on a per snap basis.
You, and anyone else trying to paint Edwards as anything less than good, is hanging your hat on relative comparisons (grading on a curve relative to Blake or RB1 production), Edward's reaction to a different role with Blake healthy, and YPC. This is a molehill compared to a mountain.
On top of that, even the molehills are debatable. You consistently frame Blake's reaction as a negative (he is STRUGGLING) when it's a positive (Donovan's positivity, faith, and team-first attitude, paired with shared confidence, resilience, and support between he and his coaches and teammates). You spent all freshman year saying Donovan couldn't run between the tackles and fell over grass and then after soph year you said he was a boom bust back -- and as he ran between the tackles and had no boom plays - he still produced in that role in 2023, but somehow the YPC coming down in that role (at the same time Blake's went down) indicates he plays bad. Finally 4.2 YPC -- definitely not bad.
-----------------------------------
Don was not boom bust.
DeleteDon did not have a bad year.
Donovan didn't have a lot of explosive plays this year - we all know that. And after 2022, when he had many, that feels disappointing to some folks and is an adjustment for Don to deal with. We all know that and acknowledge that. How you react to that is up to you. You can say "well he's playing poorly" but see all the above that tells you that is wrong. Another different response is you can shrug it off -- "well it's just not happening for him this year" - "the holes aren't there", "the calls aren't there", "the blocks aren't the same", "he's not getting in a rhythm"....whatever. You can acknowledge he got fewer carries and was used differently.
None of those views means HE is playing poorly. You can acknowledge that production doesn't always align with performance (e.g., Fitz Toussaint's YPC going down every year of his career before going to the NFL).
Some of us had faith and said "chill, be patient, he's a good player, he's playing fine, the big plays will come". Happily for all of the greater us, that small us included our coaching staff.
Those who stayed (confident in Don) watched a champion (thrive on the biggest stage).
Three posts, all to acknowledge what I said regarding PFF & MGoBlog scoring in the first place, that context and the narrative, observations & opinions they have must be covered as well. We agree
DeleteThree parts, and we've you've downgraded from Don having a "great" year to a "good year for a backup" ... I won't argue that
Compromise brings civility. GO BLUE
Mgoblog narrative was acknowledge and commented upon last week. That wasn't the point of the posts. Oh well.
DeleteDon had a great year, as I've said repeatedly. I'm not downgrading anything. If one chooses to look at things differently than Don and the team and me (i.e., focus on individual and ignore team) -- that says more about them than Don. Oh well.
I'm saying that even if you look at things through that flawed perspective and want to ignore TT, TT, TT as a mindset, the "unsatisfactory" and "not good" labels don't land for Don's individual performance. In other words the statistical production was "good" not "great". I don't know of anyone ever saying Don had a great year statistically.
But I'm glad you can agree those earlier statements about his individual performance are off base.
Always happy to have a civil conversation.
@ Lank 12:43 p.m.
DeleteI appreciate the civility.
At the same time, when you're messing around with the words great/good, it's just becoming a semantic argument. It's like a wet, slimy fish flopping around trying not to get caught.
Pat Fitzgerald had a great year in 2023...because he got married and had a kid (okay, I made that up, but the point is that his year sucked because he got fired due to a scandal). Mike McCarthy had a great playoff game last week...because his team scored 32 points!
Yes, Donovan Edwards had a "great" year in 2023 because he won a national championship. The same goes for every player on the roster.
Nobody's talking about that.
We're talking about individual performances.
Edwards was #50 in the Big Ten in points scored per game (2.0).
He was #23 in the Big Ten in yards per carry (4.18), and he was much lower before he had a 15th game to boost that up by about 0.7 yards/carry.
He scored 0 touchdowns in the receiving game and averaged a so-so 8.3 yards/catch (less than Nick Singleton and Roman Hemby, who scored 2 and 3 touchdowns, respectively).
Yes, he had a "great" year because he played on a 15-0 team that won the national championship. There's nobody here arguing that he should feel crappy about himself or calling him a loser or saying he shouldn't be able to celebrate winning a natty because his YPC was a disappointment. Let's just be done with that angle, because you're arguing against air.
@Thunder. I'm responding to the comments made. These include:
DeleteDon Edwards is "not playing well", had a "year of being bad ", "waited until carry #114 of the season before he made something happen", and that his season was not " good or even satisfactory".
Aside from the fact that great, good, and satisfactory are subjective terms, I drew some distinction between team success, his level of production on the season, and his "grades" from a couple different websites and the narratives here and elsewhere.
"Nobody's talking about that." team success?
I beg to differ. I'm talking about it. Don is talking about it. The team is talking about it. The coaches are talking about it. That's why it's relevant.
Don had a bad year is BS. That's not semantics - that's how a lot of people, players, and coaches define success.
You want to set that all aside but it can't be set aside. Don was never SUPPOSED to be a 1000 yard rusher on this team. Not if Blake was healthy. This goes back to the convo in the countdown.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now I can be done arguing with the very very relevant "air" and get on to the relatively trivial matter of individual performance, production, and stats in a team sport that credits the actions of 11 to 1 or 2. In other words, I'll play along with your framing of what matters only after acknowledging that it's an exceedingly narrow view.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Don Edwards had a great year because he had ~750 yards and 5 TDs.
He had a GREAT year because he produced so much on a GREAT team.
He was also one of the best most productive players on the offensive side of the ball, so individually he was GOOD (at worst).
He was also graded out as GOOD on PFF/Mgoblog.
He also had one of the most productive seasons for a backup RB in Michigan football history which is GOOD (at worst).
Don had a good year (as an individual) and a great year (as a player).
Here are some players who produced less than Don Edwards on the season:
DeleteCornelius Johnson
AJ Barner
Max Bredeson
Semaj Morgan
Kaleel Mullings
Are all these players guilty of "not playing well", having a "year of being bad " or not " good or even satisfactory"?
Edwards produced. Individually! More than all those guys! 3rd highest yards from scrimmage on the entire team!
The people he did not outproduce are listed below:
Blake Corum
Roman Wilson
The ONLY reason the list has any names on it at all is that Blake returned for his senior year and Don returned to being Blake's backup. I say that with confidence because it was the case in 2022.
Don didn't fall off because he played poorly, as your repeatedly assert, he fell back to producing at a level similar to what he did in 2022 when he was Blake's backup last time.
In other words, 2023 was a return to 2022 before Blake's injury happened.
In 2022 - Donovan was good or perhaps great. But let's not quibble about semantics or argue with air because we all agree right? Donovan was good in 2022.
So what changed in 2023 to make him not good? Moreover what changed between Jan 2 and Jan 8? To make him rushing for 2.8 ypc to rushing for 17.3 ypc. Maybe he slept at a Holiday Inn Express.
Those are my questions.
-Are all of the guys who rank below #50 in points per game having bad years?
-Did Don really go from great in 2022, to bad in 2023, until the 15th game of 2023 where he was good again?
Maybe a simpler question?
DeleteWhat would a "good" season have looked like for Don, individually, statistically.
Not great. Not Blake Corum. Just good or maybe just plain satisfactory? Where would the line between BAD and NOT BAD be?
Agreed with Lank the other day:
DeleteEdwards had a GREAT season ...
as a member of a National Championship team
Edwards had a GOOD season ... for a backup
To answer Lank's question from yesterday, a "good" season for Don might look like:
- meet his own goals & expectations. I would assume that includes more than one 1oo yard game, and without the TD drought
- develop closer toward a Harball RB, vice sitting while Blake & Kalel take the bruising carries
- more consistency, shaking the Boom or Bust rep. One regular season game over 5o yards turned into 7-9 games. 5-1o regular season TDs. Over 4ypc in regular season
- dominate at least ONE team on the regular season schedule, but probably 3 or 4 considering the soft as Charmin regular season lineup
That's four, but even half that would be harder to argue against
@JE
DeleteAll 4 of those are your opinions and not ascertainable externally.
-Goals and expectations -- Edwards' goals are his own but FWIW it seems very happy with how the season went. So that one gets a check.
-Harball RB - respectfully, this is your own fantasy. Did they stop playing "Harball" in 2022 against OSU and Purdue. Who knows! It's a term you made up and apply however you want. He ran between the tackles and in short yardage situations with great success when he was the starter, if that's what you mean. This year his role was more specialized, as is to be expected for a backup. Blake also was used in more of a 3rd down back when he was HH backup.
-Boom bust rep was disproved in 14 games. He didn't boom. He didn't bust.
-Dominate? In a team game? Which games did Blake "dominate" this year? Don't answer - that's rhetorical. RBs don't dominate games - OL do.
Otherwise, our numbers are comically tailored to be just above what he actually acheived. "One regular season game over 5o yards turned into 7-9 games. 5-1o regular season TDs."
How many pure backups achieve 7-9 games over 50 yards and get 5-10 TDs in regular seasons?
Do you have ANY doubt Don will achieve those marks next year? OR do you think it's purely because he was a backup?
BTW Edwards had 50 or more yards in 8 regular season games (ECU, BGSU, Rutgers, Nebraska, Indiana, Purdue, PSU, and OSU).
DeleteJE meant only rushing for some reason but in football all yards count.
For some reason? Uh, because he's a running back?
DeleteWas Edwards happy? When asked about his struggles, he acknowledged them / attributed them as mental, and then disclosed his seeing a therapist ... anyway, listening to his preseason interview, Edwards asserted himself as part the best RUNNINGBack duo in the nation. The young man has lofty goals (Barry/Walter), so my meager suggestion of more than one 1oo yard game & no TD drought is a fairly low bar
I did not invent HARBALL; it's an internet thing, backed my Harbaugh's old school lean on physically pounding the ball. Yes, The Don can run between the Tackles, but goes down almost immediately upon contact. Big hole, big run; smaller hole and it's over
During the season, you asked for evidence of Boom-Bust. I gave you ea carry against ohio; very boom bust. That 23 was mostly busy and only a couple booms is not an improvement or argument against that rep
Blake Corum - coming off a terrible knee injury was not the same RB this year, but dominating performances? I'd say Bama & WA (OMVP)
If we're back to making this evaluation as "just a backup," I've already conceded: Donovan Edwards had a "good" season, for a backup
I listed the RB history above. Edwards outproduced all of them except Corum.
DeleteThe OL that Sherrone Moore built dominated - which is why every starting back in the last 3 years has produced massively - Haskins, Corum, and yes, despite your whack-ass arguments, Edwards.
Edwards was definitely a backup and he definitely had a good season. Glad we agree. I don't know why we have to throw words like bad and unsatisfactory around for a good player playing well.
What are we even disagreeing about?
DeleteEdwards had a good season ... for a backup
Edwards was a backup. So Edwards... had a good season.
DeleteThe ellipsis and qualifier is a choice. We're still disagreeing with your previous take that Edwards was not good or even satisfactory. and Thunders take that he played poorly.
Good season. Played well. Potential Heisman contender for 2024.
When he thrives next year you'll say he worked hard this offseason on improving his balance, vision, strength and toughness and I'll say he is who he always was. He'll get better sure, the offseason will help him, just like it did when he got better before -- in 2021, 2022, and yes, 2023 too.
I don't get it. YOU introduced the caveat, I only agreed
DeleteI hope Edwards does come back even better. Last season he said he wanted to work on shiftiness, juking would be tacklers. That didn't happen, which is understandable considering he too was recovering from injury
My hope is that Herbert comes back, and the nation's best S&C program can help Don reach his own goal, and that HC Sherron uses Edwards more in accordance with his elite talents
From the horse's mouth:
Delete“I’m still hungry. The season WASN'T HOW I WANTED IT TO BE necessarily,” Edwards said. “And just popping out the way that I did on the biggest stage, for me, it’s like, that’s great. But what’s better than doing it again? WHAT'S BETTER THAN WORKING HARD IN THE OFF-SEASON and to be able to do it again? So that’s what my mindset is — I’m still hungry."
*emphasis mine, of course
https://www.maizenbrew.com/2024/1/24/24048189/donovan-edwards-details-decision-return-michigan-wolverines-college-football-2024-jake-butt
Edwards did not want to be a backup. Of course. He started and thrived in 2022. But we as fans knew (or should have known) that he was going to be a backup in 2023 barring another injury. He had one of the best seasons as backup in program history. He thrived in his role. He just wants to be the starter - and he will be in 2024.
DeleteDon has expressed repeatedly what a great season it was an how much he appreciates it. He wants more individual success - awesome. This is not a negative no matter how much you want to emphasize the negative. Emphasis yours indeed.
He wants to work hard in the off season AGAIN. Meaning he did it last year too. And yet he got worse? Do you believe that his off season work regiment was so poorly constructed that not only did he fail to get better, he actually regressed. Fire Ben Herbert I guess LOL
The key ingredient you are missing in discussing Don's individual success above is the same thing you continue to miss in this prolonged debate. It depends more on what is around him than on him.
Specifically:
Is blake corum present? If yes, he is going to get the bulk of the carries -- true equally in 2022 as 2023.
Is the OL doing it's job consistently, creating opportunities to leverage his speed?
Is the OC making playcalls (e.g., runs on non-obvious downs) to put him in a position to succeed?
Is the passing offense (QB, TE, WR, OL) threatening enough to prevent stacked boxes?
I didn't introduce the caveat. I said Don Edwards had a great season.
DeleteLyinLank, at it again. YOU wanted Edwards stats compared to other backups ... when did Don say "he" had a great season? I'll wait, but it's a rhetorical question ...
DeleteNo lies told. And you know it. All you have is deflections and dodges. Sad.
DeleteI'm finished here.
Six posts on five threads ... you must not have a career
DeleteSad is, you NEED this
This is the first in a long time I've felt like M offense could win a big game, vice leaning on D
ReplyDeleteWhile we haven't run like 2o22 (or 21), Coruis coming on ... knee injuries like that tend to weigh on the mental part, and - combined with a step back from Joe Moore OLs - we saw defenses escape from the recent Harball. I think we run, run more, and then some more. And, I expect us to be successful at it. Big day from Corum, and a display of power from Mullings ... Edwards will hopefully catch the dang ball this week
Looking forward to your defense writeup, which I can imagine will struggle against Penix & his WR corps
Love this kid. Edwards acknowledges his challenges on the year, and gives a perfect answer on the TCU loss
ReplyDeleteWith the UW size on defense, maybe this is the game The Don can break some tackles and regain some glory... The young man's patience has earned
https://www.si.com/college/michigan/football/michigan-wolverines-donovan-edwards-national-championship-college-football-playoff
Great attitude and you hear the same type of thing from Trente, Goode, Bredeson and others. They could be starting most other places and, in Edwards case, sacrificing a lot of stats to be a role player at Michigan. Individual sacrifice, but they are in it for the team and enjoying the spoils.
DeleteThe only guys who AREN'T sacrificing are probably the TEs. Even Blake could be putting up bigger numbers somewhere else. JJ for sure. Roman and Cornelius? You know it! It's not about personal stats for everybody. That's not how success is defined. And you can be sure that many in the NFL scouting/analytics departments know it too.
Edwards' case is particularly acute because he got all those accolades for his 3 games a starter. He tasted the spotlight more directly than most and then had to slide out of it when Blake got back in.
I haven't watched much of UW, but what I have seen shows a team that will need to sell out to stop something. Try to guess right.
ReplyDeleteAttack the box with numbers by guessing plays. If they guess wrong that will leave the back end one on one. Think OSU 2022.
If they try to play straight up, I think their tackling will get exposed. Think PSU 2022
UM will have shoot themselves in the foot to get stopped. Think TCU last year.
40 points, 500 yards of total offense it not out of the question with 300 yards on the ground.
Agreed. One of the key matchups that not many people will talk about is the tackling in the secondary. Michigan is good at it (knock on wood), and I don't think Washington is, from what I've seen. If Michigan can get to the third level in the run game - or get the ball to receivers with a chance to run - I think the Wolverines will have an advantage.
DeleteThat's why I think The Don can have a game. He can break a tackle, and get into space ... cBus fame, all over again
Delete@ je93 4:04 p.m.
DeleteYou might be right about that. I can see him having a big impact in this game.
I am seeing a lot of parallels to TCU. Don't get too cocky about dominating in the run because they will sell out to stop it. But don't get TOO cute coming up with counters either. Continue to use all the weapons in the pass game and don't be afraid to run JJ. Avoid turnovers on O, and we'll score on them.
DeleteKey is on the other side -- keep the offense in front of you. No 60+ yard plays given up like against TCU. Agree with Thunder's point about the tackling. Also can't blow coverages like we did last year.
Hoping for an early lead and then the python comes out. GO BLUE!