It was a very understandable move, but Michigan suffered a big blow on Sunday when incumbent starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy announced he would be entering the 2024 NFL Draft. McCarthy is a two-year starter who went 27-1 in that role and won a national championship. According to draft projections I've seen, he's considered to be a potential 1st round pick and is thought to be anywhere from the #3 to the #6 quarterback in the class. He could come back in 2024 and potentially be the #1 quarterback on the board for the 2025 draft, but it looks like that won't happen.
So where should Michigan turn for a quarterback in 2024?
JADYN DAVIS (6'0", 202 lb. freshman)
2023 season stats (high school): 204/288, 3370 yards, 43 touchdowns, 9 interceptions
The argument: Davis, from Charlotte (NC) Providence Day, is a 4-star recruit, the #7 quarterback, and #93 overall in the class of 2024. Michigan recruited Davis hard and put most of their eggs in his basket during the cycle, so the coaching staff really likes him. While he's ranked anywhere from #61 to #116 overall by three of the four main recruiting sites, the fourth - On3 - has him all the way down at #218. One thing that really helps true freshman quarterbacks be successful is some kind of physical advantage - speed, size, and/or a cannon for an arm - but Davis has none of the above. He's more of a game manager in the mold of Cade McNamara, and while McNamara did eventually captain his team to a very successful season, it wasn't until his third year on campus.
Hit the jump for more.
JAYDEN DENEGAL (6'5", 235 lb. redshirt sophomore)
2023 season stats: 4/5, 50 yards, 1 touchdown; 4 carries, 10 yards
The argument: Denegal was called upon as a true freshman in 2022 to play in one game and hand off the ball, therefore redshirting. He and Alex Orji - see below - were recruited in the same class, with Denegal seen as the superior passer and Orji being a better overall athlete. Denegal is a decent athlete who had to do a lot of work as a passer, but he looks to have taken to the coaching of quarterbacks coach Kirk Campbell. Still, he has just 5 career passing attempts, and he did not play in a game after the October 21 blowout of Michigan State.
ALEX ORJI (6'3", 236 lb. redshirt sophomore)
2023 season stats: 15 carries, 86 yards, 1 touchdown
The argument: Orji was hailed by Jim Harbaugh in the pre-season as potentially the greatest kickoff returner in Michigan history, so naturally, he didn't return a single kickoff. Another thing he didn't do is attempt a pass. Brought in purely as a runner, he had some big carries down the stretch for the Wolverines. And Sherrone Moore did eventually call for a pass play on a fake QB run against Alabama in the Rose Bowl, but the Crimson Tide sniffed it out. His career completion percentage is 100% on the strength of going 1/1 for 5 yards as a true freshman in 2022. If Orji or Denegal were to become Michigan's starter, he would be the least experienced passer since Rich Rodriguez recruited Tate Forcier and started him as a true freshman in 2009.
DAVIS WARREN (6'2", 195 lb. redshirt junior)
2023 season stats: 0/5, 1 interception; 2 carries, -4 yards
The argument: Warren is a walk-on quarterback who has done well in some spring action, but the 2023 season was a rough one. He started off the year as the #2 quarterback behind McCarthy, but newcomer Jack Tuttle took over that spot once he was able to grasp the playbook after transferring from Indiana. (Tuttle was a sixth year senior in 2023 and is now out of eligibility.) Warren did complete 5/9 passes for 89 yards in 2022 and ran 3 times for 30 yards that year, but going 5/14 for 89 yards and 1 interception doesn't inspire a ton of confidence for a starting position for the national champions. Warren is a great story of a young man who beat leukemia to go play FBS football - and get on the field at a place like Michigan - but he's a game manager at best.
THE TRANSFER PORTAL (?'?", ??? lb. ???)
2023 season stats: ???
The argument: Lots of teams have found success by grabbing quarterbacks out of the transfer portal, and Michigan is no exception. Jim Harbaugh has been at Michigan for nine seasons, and three of those years have been led by transfer portal quarterbacks: Iowa's Jake Rudock (2015) and Ole Miss's Shea Patterson (2018-2019). Additionally, Houston's John O'Korn and Indiana's Tuttle have come in to serve as capable backups during that stretch. Examples from around college football are too numerous to bother naming, but big names have already changed schools this off-season, such as Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma to Oregon), Will Howard (Kansas State to Ohio State), Riley Leonard (Duke to Notre Dame), and Dante Moore (UCLA to Oregon), among others.
CONCLUSION
I will be very concerned for the 2024 season if Michigan does not pull a capable starter out of the transfer portal. Coming off of a national championship, they should not have trouble finding someone. They are playing from behind considering McCarthy just made this decision and Michigan missed the first round of transfers, since they were too busy playing in the playoffs to be involved with recruiting transfers. According to the 247 Sports transfer portal, the top three available options are:
- Mississippi State/Washington's Will Rogers (6'2", 215): 142/237 (59.9%), 1626 yards, 12 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
- JMU's Jordan McCloud (6'0", 199): 281/412 (68.2%), 3657 yards, 35 touchdowns, 10 interceptions
- Holy Cross's Matthew Sluka (6'3", 216): 122/197 (61.9%), 1723 yards, 20 touchdowns, 5 interceptions
I don't necessarily think Michigan's answer is on that list. There's a good chance that someone else enters the transfer portal, either now or following spring ball. Rogers already tried to transfer to Washington, at least until head coach Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama, and I'm not so sure he fits what Michigan would want at the position. McCloud is undersized and would be at his fourth school (USF, Arizona, JMU previously), and Sluka would be an FCS transfer. The national champions should be able to attract a little higher level prospect.
1) portal ... even if this means enticing a QB who hasn't yet entered
ReplyDelete.
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BIG DROP
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2) Tuttle, if they can manage another year somehow
we're screwed after that. I know some bought into the Davis Warren story, but the lights were awfully bright for him in 23
Tuttle is done. This past year was his sixth year.
DeleteYeah, but I keep reading about him (and little Tua) asking for exemption
DeleteRegardless, we're in need of help
Next year's QB is sitting in portal sometime after spring practice. Depth charts get established, guys think they will have opportunity to play and win elsewhere.
ReplyDeleteJJ's numbers are ok, BUT, he made plays at crucial times in the big games. Numbers are replaceable, the clutch plays, not so much.
The good news we don't have to go 14-0 just for the chance to get into the playoffs. 3-4 loses still gives UM a chance and with THAT schedule next year, 3-4 losses is a good year. UM will be Battle tested and we'll know what we have in Nov, good or bad.
Depends on the rules for playoffs selection. Can we be ranked top12 with 3 losses? Possibly, but G5 will eat too ... 4 losses and we're out for sure
DeleteI'd say Oregon is set for a run, but joining a new league and playing NINE new teams is tough. That puts my B1G top 3 at ohio, oregon and PSU in a distant third
Nothing in the rules to prohibit it and I bet there will be 3-loss teams that make the playoff at some points, but it may take extenuating circumstances (narrow losses in OT, on the road, with players missing, weird weather, etc.) For better or worse I think the selection committee will continue to weigh overall record (# of losses specifically) pretty heavily.
DeleteThe good news is that we are not alone in this and there will be a chunk of 2 and 3-loss teams coming out of the SEC and B1G. They will be making a case for strength of record being a bigger consideration in the future, I believe.
There will be no less arguing about 12-13 then there is now with 4-5, but with the playoff the stakes and outrage will be diminished.
Good post and timely.
ReplyDeleteI would be shocked if they don't look to the portal. Still 8 months to go...
Among the existing roster options I would guess Orjii and Davis would be the top candidates. With Don back, I think a running QB is more viable. Don is a big play threat in all facets and requires attention as a rushing option and a receiving option (and he can throw a bit too). That kind of thing opens up a lot for QBs and prevents defenses from overplaying the run.
"they were too busy playing in the playoffs to be involved with recruiting transfers." isn't quite right give Priebe and Braham committed during this time -- the bigger issue was JJ's decision IMO.
The elephant in the room here is the head coach. Hard for a portal QB to commit to a school when the head coach is potentially moving, but if Sherrone is "on deck" then he should be out there burning up the phones.
There's some smoke the Will Rogers may shift to Alabama with Deboer headed there which could create an interesting situation for Milroe...
This is going to be an interesting offseason for sure.
With Dono and Mullings coming back at RB, I think we're good at the QB position with what we have returning IMO. They've been in the system for a few years already so let's see what we have. I think we run the hell out of the ball and keep the defense fresh. It worked well a few years ago and the OL still has people returning that have plenty of game experience.
ReplyDeleteI think Orji, Denegal, Warren etc still get a chance to develop and compete against whoever they bring in. But we know the level of QB that Jack Tuttle is (not as good as Alan Bowman), so it probably means something that Tuttle would have been the guy if JJ got hurt.
DeleteNot writing those guys off, just acknowledging it would take a big leap for them to step in and expect to beat Texas in September.
Dan Villari had 3 career passing attempts after two years, and now he's playing tight end (and some Wildcat QB) at Syracuse.
DeleteOrji has 1 career passing attempt after two years.
I'm not going to guarantee it, but I feel strongly that Michigan is not going to entrust its 2024 season to a guy with 0.5 pass attempts per year so far.
Agree, and said as much about Orji & Denegal during the off-season. Orji is a gimmick guy (but fun) and Denegal may be an okay 2nd option some day
DeleteTom Brady had 5 career passing attempts after two years. Jake Rudock had zero. I don't this stat means much necessarily.
DeleteTom Brady passing stats in year 3: 12/15, 103 yards
DeleteJake Rudock passing stats in year 3: 203/346, 2383 yards, 18 TD, 13 INT
Neither player had a good season. You could play Colston Loveland at QB if you're not worried about having a good season from your QB. This team is on three straight years of Big Ten championships and making the CFP.
As long as they're team players & good people, it was a good season
DeleteGood point Thunder. Even if someone is going to end up being a very good QB it would take a huge leap for them to be ready in 2024.
DeleteThe best we could hope for might be a Wilton Speight type of season. Speight made a leap from 9/25 for 73 yards in his first 2 years (and looking unplayable at times) to 7.7 YPA, 2,538 yards, and a 140 passer rating as a junior.
OR Jaydn Davis can be HIM.
Anyway yeah -- we should hit the portal for a QB.
@JE
TT, TT, TT. IFYKYK, but if you never will....
746 yards and 5 TDs is a good season for a backup RB.
Agree with Lank - GET ON THE PHONES!
ReplyDeleteDisagree with suncity. JJ did a lot of game managing that others could replace, but none have shown the ability to make big throws
The Milroe suggestion is one discussed at my house ... get on the phones!
I think Denegal can play. You're watching his best throws on video and consequently never get to see the misses, but he looks to be accurate, have a nice touch and some power. The knock on him, if I recall properly was that he got heavy, which called into question his work ethic.
ReplyDeleteHe makes me think a little of Speight, pre shoulder wrecking, as he has a feel for putting it where only his guy gets it.
I'm buying the ON3 evaluation of Davis as being not 6'0". Maybe not even particularly close. As Thunder pointed out some months ago, he relentlessly makes the read at the high school level and gets the easy yards. I'd give him some snaps wherever I could, but I think he'll break over the course of a BIG season this early in his career.
I'd love being wrong here, but Orji is not accurate enough, he never has been. He's a running back or a linebacker like his brother before him.
Young Bell is still to my way of thinking the best high school QB out of all of them. I know, I know, he's a wide receiver. I wish those guys would just call me every once in a while and ask, they'd miss a lot of mistakes.
Roanman
I wouldn't write off any of them - even Bell LOL - Harbaugh loves to move guys around.
DeleteThe issue I have is that you can't really expect any of them to be ready to lead a playoff-caliber team in 2024.
Is it possible one of them proves up for the job? Yes of course it's possible. It's just not very likely to happen overnight (i.e., in one offseason). With the schedule being what it is it's a tough spot for an inexperienced player.
From what little I have seen of Denegal I like.
DeleteDenegal seems to be the backup QB fav of the moment. I remember when it was Warren last offseason.
DeleteI have no real opinion other than wait and see because circumstantial evidence of these guys not beating out Tuttle indicates they aren't ready yet.
Moving a guy from WR to QB is a step I'm not sure even Harbaugh would take. And especially to start him right after. Bell won't be the QB in 2024.
DeleteMaybe he could move back and be an option in 2025 or 2026 or something, but something like that would be almost unprecedented.
This is an elite program, not Kansas or Vanderbilt or Tulsa. Michigan shouldn't be that desperate where they need to roll the dice on a WR working out at QB.
Agreed re: other players' place with respect to Tuttle. I think if any one of them were the clear heir apparent, they would have received more snaps in 2023. To me it seemed like Harbaugh was giving each of them a shot to prove himself. I'm not sure anyone did, though Denegal's 4/5 for 50 yards and 1 touchdown looks good on paper. That's a small sample size, though.
Bell was recruited as a QB and played QB in high school. This isn't moving some random WR to QB. It's more like putting Mullings at RB.
DeleteI suspect Roanman's point is more long term potential than immediate ability - which are different questions. I absolutely agree he's got no chance to be the QB in 2024.
Harbaugh has moved TE to LB, FB to DT, OL to TE, LB to RB, QB to TE, among more conventional moves DB/WR, OL/DL, etc. I don't think moving a guy recruited as a QB back to QB would be all that wacky, by Harbaugh standards.
I expect Bell to stick at WR, FWIW. If he moves my guess would be CB before QB. After Sainristil I'm feeling like being skeptical of Harbaugh's position moves is perilous LOL.
Well, I think you've downplayed what it takes to play RB before. And even though I think the position is more important than you do, I can admit that it's not the most difficult position to learn.
DeleteBut missing out an entire season of reps at QB is a big deal. There's a pretty prominent theory about how many times QBs need to throw the ball these days to be successful, because a lot of these players are doing 7v7, training with private QB coaches, etc., and speeding up their mental processing and coordinating it with their footwork, mechanics, etc. So Bell not only missing out on game reps but also not getting any practice reps or mental work at QB would be a pretty huge deficit to overcome.
Maybe I've embraced too much Fred Jackson over the years but it seems like the main things to develop over time at RB are blocking, ball security, and then "vision". By vision I mean understanding the blocking scheme, trusting your blockers to execute them, and then running that way. [which doesn't happen if you're changing scheme and personnel]
DeleteYou're probably right about Bell and practice reps. That said, there's probably some value in training at another position and learning those elements. He's learning the offense, route reads, and (hypothetically) would be better understanding of what it takes for WRs to be successful. Since he was going to be pretty far down the depth chart IDK how many reps he was going to get this year anyway. Since he red-shirted it's a free year anyway.
Our portal guy may not even know he's leaving his current school now. That's how far we've got to dig. Find a match, and start the recruitment
ReplyDeleteGet a Corner too. WR & TE (if Barner leaves). DT & DL for depth. OT for competition
Time to be relentless
It's a new world and JE is absolutely right. Would love to have the portal addition before spring but with coaching uncertainty that might not be realistic. Time to recruit a QB.
DeletePortal Need #1 - QB
It's not even close. At a minimum you need a Tuttle/Bowman vet but realistically we need a starter or at least somebody to raise the floor in the Josh Wallace sense (i.e., can be a game manager starter). What's Cade up to LOL. Just kidding - screw that guy.
Portal Need #2 - In-line TE
Barner is gone. Don't let the online depth charts fool you - this is a starting spot in the Harbaugh offense. Barner played more snaps than Wilson, Corum, Loveland, Edwards, etc. We were quietly already pretty thin here in 2023. On meaningful downs, we went from playing 6 TEs in 2022 to 3 this year because the coaches didn't trust anyone. This spot is wide open and nobody else on the roster looks close to ready to enter the rotation with Loveland and Bredeson, let alone be a starter.
If they get Hibner back (mgoblog said he red-shirted with an eye on a transfer) then you can maybe dial this back slightly, but he's more of a rotational player - not someone you want to count on to be an impact starter.
Portal Need #3 - Starting OT
I think we probably have a solid player between Persi/Gentry/Bounds and can be OK at OT if nobody is added. The question is if OK is good enough for Michigan at this point. We've been landing high impact starts at OL the last couple years and I don't know why they would stop with Priebe.
Portal Need #4 - Outside WR
This one gets pretty debatable because WR is not a super important position in this offense relative to other teams. But it is still very important and we saw Wilson have a huge role, Johnson make numerous big catches, and even Morris/Morgan making substantial contributions. Morris should inherit the WR1 role but a big fast downfield threat would sure be nice to have in the mix with him and Morgan. Moore and English are coming. Wish Andrel Anthony was still here!
Portal Need #5 - CB
Adding another vet CB would be nice. Someone like Wallace would be a homerun. But it's less necessary than it was a year ago. Waller and Hill will be sophomores and should be more ready to step up. Remember when people downplayed Wallace as a "floor raiser"? I think he proved to be much more than a placeholder.
After that I think we are talking about nice-to-haves not needs. But there are a lot of those.
QB - can make a case for adding 2
RB - probably not if Mullings returns
TE - can make a case for 2, a starter and a developmental guy
OL - the door is open for all american types as Olu, Nugent, Henderson all thrived
EDGE - not a need but it sure was nice rotating 4 guys eh?
DT - ditto here, there's room at the inn for a 4th/5th guy
Nickel - I think we're good sliding a safety over but if an impact guy wants to sign up for a premier position on the best D in the country...
PK - Is Samaha ready or do we need to find another Turner?
Portal class should be at least 8 but could be a dozen or so.
Barner is going pro.
DeleteKudos to the coaches for re-recruiting Rod & Makari, Stewart too. Throw in the two LBs in the last two years that I didn't see as the highest priority, and we should have another elite defense
ReplyDeleteWe're a QB away from a potential repeat, even if Sherone is thrust into the HC role ... that's insane
What a time to be a fan!
Defense, on paper, should be better than 2023. I guess that's a hot take because there is next to zero chance that happens but the talent level is so exceptionally high and there are no real holes (other than some fringe questions about CB2).
DeleteGoing to miss some vet leaders (Barrett, Sainristil, Jenkins) and going to miss some guys who you could count on to their jobs and avoid mistakes (Wallace, Harrell, McGregor) but we have some absolute NFL studs who are rising up into their junior years that should offset a lot of that.
The bigger question is coaching. Minter is almost surely gone and we can't start really talking about that until we sort out the head coach spot.
"We're a QB away from a potential repeat"
DeleteI'd hold the train there since the offense is turning over every starter besides Loveland. I'm optimistic about the OL personnel individually but the turnover there means it will probably take a minute to sort out and Texas's DL is coming in September. Our 2023 second string is getting promoted up (Hinton, El-Hadi, Crippen) and reinforcements are on the way (Priebe) but it will take them time to gel and playcalling maybe a bit different without Blake/JJ/Roman/ZZ/Keegan.
I said potential ... make the playoffs, maybe win a round or two. The better the QB, the greater the potential
DeleteYes agreed. Gotta sort out the coaching first then address offense, especially QB. D is in tremendous shape.
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