Bad game plans are the norm. After Saturday's 21-7 loss to Illinois, Sherrone Moore said he needs to re-evaluate himself as a head coach. I'm not ready to throw Moore out after half a season with no functional quarterback, but I am very disappointed in him and offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell. There are all kinds of glaring issues with this offense:
- If ground-and-pound is your identity, stick with it. Michigan needs to be a run-first team. That's the only way they're going to win. Everybody has known that the entire off-season, even when we had higher hopes for Alex Orji or Jack Tuttle or Davis Warren or whoever. Early in the game, Michigan was using the passing game and Donovan Edwards. How are you going to wear down a team down the stretch by throwing the ball with a weak passing game and running Donovan Edwards? The bulls in the backfield are Kalel Mullings, Benjamin Hall, and Alex Orji. Pound the ball!
- Speaking of Alex Orji, he should be on the field. Probably the most frustrating thing about Michigan's offensive personnel decisions is that Alex Orji - who played last year while J.J. McCarthy was here and who was deemed "one of the best 11" by Campbell in the off-season - has disappeared from the offense for the past two games. How do you go from one of the best 11 to a guy who doesn't see the field at all? I was not a fan of Orji as a starting quarterback who played the entire game, but he can be used as a mooseback runner. Hell, Michigan used Hassan Haskins in a wildcat role. You can put a 6'3", 235 lb. guy back there with Mullings and/or Hall and/or Edwards and still do some things. Orji just can't be playing an entire game as the only option.
- Donovan Edwards is both underused and frustrating. How did Michigan take one of the better receiving backs in the country and turn him into a guy who has 9 catches for 46 yards through seven games? He also had zero receptions in this game. Michigan needs to figure out ways to get him the ball. And then, of course, he had a very frustrating fumble on Michigan's longest run of the day, a 19-yarder where the ball was punched out. He had 7 carries for 38 yards, but with the 19-yarder ending in a fumble, that's basically 6 carries for 19 yards . . . which is nothing special.
- Plan for Jack Tuttle. Tuttle isn't a guy who can do straight dropback stuff to win the game. He's a game manager type who needs to be a complement to the run game. The offensive line can't pass block - although I feel like they did slightly better in this game - and the receivers can't get open with regularity. Michigan's coaching staff should be using for Tuttle the game plan they used with Alex Orji, while occasionally mixing in a downfield/intermediate shot, maybe once a quarter.
Hit the jump for more.
The defense was fine. There were some glitches here or there, but I thought the defense overall played okay. Illinois' starting quarterback, Luke Altmyer, went 9/18 for 80 yards and 1 touchdown. They gave up 267 total yards of offense, and 36 of those yards were on a fake punt run by Illinois TE Tanner Arkin. The major difference was probably the penalties, which seemed to come at more inopportune times for Michigan. While both teams had 6 penalties called against them, Illinois had 50 yards in penalties and Michigan had 61. But the Wolverines were called for several pass interference fouls. Giving up 21 points to a decent offensive team that was given solid field position isn't a shameful performance. The offense put them in bad positions.
Michigan needs to hit the portal hard this off-season. This isn't a novel statement, but there needs to be a major upgrade at the quarterback and receiver positions. And the Wolverines are also going to need to replace defensive ends, defensive tackles, and defensive backs. There's a ton of work that needs to be done. Unfortunately, I'm not seeing the young, upcoming talent to make me excited about what's to come. Michigan has a decent recruiting class for 2025, but that group is going to take until 2026 or 2027 to be ready to be major contributors. Sherrone Moore isn't going to last that long if he doesn't start to right the ship in 2025.
YES. Pound (the MF) ball!
ReplyDeleteNo passes to Edwards is criminal. I get running him, because he's a BOOM waiting to happen ... but that ain't our (or his) main thing
OL pass pro grades are out. Not great. Watching both Tackles get beat 1on1 on that 4Q Sack was infuriating
CBs are getting flagged because they suddenly can't cover mediocre Receivers. That's on Morgan
Portal. I've been saying this since December, but we need a guy dedicated to running a staff for this. Scrubbing rosters. Watching tape. Talking to Analyst "underground." Meddle & reel in guys we need to fill current & coming holes
I think Michigan has a guy now in Sean Magee who's responsible for analyzing the roster, finding guys in the portal, etc. I don't know that his vision/impact can really be felt yet since he's only been on the job for half a year.
DeleteFor Magee, I would imagine a job of this magnitude requires a staff. Lots of digging. Low level guys who know guys at other programs that can unearth gems
DeleteThey are relying on random connections to get guys like Charleston and Warren onto the roster on the cheap, but I agree that they could do something more systematically and with structure.
DeleteI would say if they just had a guy who was focused on scouting like, the MAC, or something -- they could probably land 6-8 guys a year from that conference who would be a big help. And those guys aren't going to cost you a $1M in NIL.
The lower levels conferences are still an underutilized opportunity IMO. Indiana is having tremendous success with a bunch of guys from James Madison. Our AA caliber edge is from Coastal Carolina. Mike Danna. Etc.
Obviously you've still got to recruit high school, but I would be putting just as much effort into getting the most promising freshman and sophomores from the lower levels of college football as I would high school sophomores and juniors.
Man I am reading this and just saying to myself. Yes. Yes. and then Yes again. and then Yes yet again. and then...
ReplyDelete"Tuttle isn't a guy who can do straight dropback stuff to win the game. He's a game manager type who needs to be a complement to the run game."
How in the world can you have watched Tuttle in this game, where he threw 2 INTs (one called back), fumbled, and almost fumbled again, and see a game manager. After playing 3 quarters against Washington and ALSO fumbling and throwing an INT. After a full career at Indiana that yielded as many INTs as TDs, we see more of the same at Michigan. He also takes way too many sacks, is consistently inaccurate, and makes reads slowly and ineffectively. He is not a game manager. He is a turnover machine. The INTs are BAD. We talk about vision for a RB but Tuttle lacks vision when he's throwing the ball. He throws it to the other teams guys like they aren't there! He turns the ball over consistently and it's not even on difficult stuff it's just carelessness with the ball. This is the exact opposite of a game manager.
Everything else is 100% spot on, Thunder.
not Thunder, but my guess is "game manager" = the guy who hands it to the RB or occasionally uses that in playaction, getting the ball to Loveland (and Edwards!)
DeleteWhat we saw yesterday was Tuttle dropping back away too often. Moore said to Jansen it's because they wanted to get shots downfield. That was the game plan. Tuttle throwing, as with Edwards as RB1 & Mullings on the bench ... they can't do that, and failed
"Moore said to Jansen it's because they wanted to get shots downfield. That was the game plan."
DeleteThat means Moore (and Campbell) were pinning the outcome of the game on hope and low probability plays. If that's something Moore came up with, then shame on him. If that's something Campbell came up with, and Moore went along to get along, then shame on him.
"He's a game manager type who needs to be a complement to the run game."
DeleteSimply handing the ball off is not a complement to the run game.
Throwing the ball to the other team is not a complement to the run game.
Fumbling is not a complement to the run game.
I understand and agree with passing less often and passing downfield less often, but that's not all that "game manager" means. McNamara and McCarthy have been used as game managers many times over the last 3 seasons, but Tuttle has not shown he is capable of that, ever.
Game managers help the team avoid turnovers. Tuttle is a turnover machine.
@Anon
DeleteYes and what in the world made the coaches believe that would work with Jack Tuttle? Did they not make the trip out to Seattle? Did they not hear that Tuttle lost the QB battle at Indiana to Bowling Green's QB in 2022? Were they too young to know he throw 5 INTs to 2 TDs in his first senior year in 2021 as Michael Penix's injury fill-in?
Not 100, but all three interceptions have involved Tuttle staring at his target like he wants a kiss
DeleteThat's not how you coach a game manager
"Game manager" is used here as the type of role his skill set fits. He's not a dynamic runner. He's not a pinpoint accurate passer. He's not a guy with a huge arm. He's not a power running QB.
DeleteIf you have a running QB who's a turnover machine, he's still a running QB. If you have a guy with a bazooka for an arm who's a turnover machine, he's still a guy with a bazooka for an arm.
What skill set? A lack of one thing (or 4) doesn't make you have another thing.
DeleteA game manager's primary skill is decision-making, first and foremost, to avoid damaging mistakes.
Tuttle doesn't have that skill!
He's just bad. I think we can admit that without pretending he has some unspecified attributes that coaches can lean into. Tuttle is just a guy that can do everything at about a D level, EXCEPT avoid turnovers, where he gets an F.
If I was Sherrone Moore, and maybe coaching for my job already... I would rotate QBs. Orji would be one of them. The other would be either Tuttle or Warren, I can't tell which is worse.
ReplyDeleteI would NOT announced a starter. I would NOT declare anyone as "our guy". I would keep everyone guessing, from game to game, series to series, and play to play.
I wouldn't throw much with any of the QBs (even Warren), but I would try to push the defense to react to different skill sets at the position and hope that gives me some incremental benefit in the rushing attack.
When I did throw - I would NOT be attempting any of the intermediate NFL stuff they keep trying to execute. Either the pass attempts are safe short stuff and have no INT risk associated with them, or they are boom/bust plays deep downfield where the reward might be worth the risk of throwing.
Once or twice a game (when the situation makes it worthwhile) I would be throwing up some jump ball arm punts deep Downfield and hope that somebody like Loveland can make a play on the ball. Max protect and let it fly and tell everyone else to go play defense the second it is thrown up. Any of our QBs can do this.
This is an approach of desperation but desperation is the reality.
Finally, since all of the above will also fail (except limiting passes) I would be preparing Jadyn Davis to see snaps once his red-shirt is secured. I'm sure he's not the answer either but all you're trying to do is keep opposing defenses guessing here and maybe keep some hope alive for the future.
Jadyn Davis isn't the answer. What, they're going to put a 6'0", 200 lb. quarterback behind a porous offensive line with no good receivers? That's a good recipe for getting him killed and seeing him transfer.
DeleteNot only that, but Davis is short & has a very low release
DeleteIs he actually 6', or is he more like Jabrill Peppers, who we listed at 6:2? I wouldn't be surprised if he never works out, or is a guy who needs a lot around him to scrape by (think Cade)
@Thunder
DeleteIt's pretty funny that you are still hung up on Davis' height 6'1 when Warren is 6'2 and Orji is 6'3 and Tuttle is 6'4. Seems pretty irrelevant. You can suck at any height.
I agree he is not an answer. He's a freshman who isn't even in the conversation with the worst QB situation I've ever seen at Michigan. It sounds like he needs a lot more development.
Development can start this year since we are probably going to see some blowouts and I'd rather see something that maybe helps us in the future than Tuttle or Warren padding their passing stats against prevent defenses late in games.
Luke Altmeyer, Max Brosmer, and Will Rogers are 6'2 -- an inch taller than Davis.
DeleteMiller Moss and Cade McNamara are 6'1 -- same as Davis.
Dillon Gabriel and Braedyn Locke are 6'0 -- shorter than Davis
The Big Ten is littered with starting QBs who are about as tall as Jadyn Davis. Most of them are good.
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https://touch-the-banner.com/jadyn-davis-wolverine/
87 ranking
Scouting report was very positive even when listing him at 6'0 (as opposed to the roster listing him at 6'1 now) with a comparison to Tagovailoa being made.
"Projection: Power Five conference multi-year starter. His NFL upside may be limited by a lack of size/bulk, but he can be a very good college player."
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Again, he is a freshman, so he probably sucks at this point in his career.
But if the problem with this offense is completely inept QB play you would think that the guy with the brightest potential future would maybe see the light of day once his red-shirt is preserved. Which it will be right after MSU. (5 regular season games left, 4 games allowed to play).
If/when Oregon is up by 20+ in the second half, that would be a good time to let your freshman get his toes wet. Not expecting a savior.
I think Jayden Davis is shorter than 6' judging by him standing with teammates (in person, on TV or in pictures) ... and it's not just that. Watch his release, and it's super low, negating what little height is there. Orji's release (during games) is similarly troublesome
DeleteLank, QB play is certainly bad but if you are only going to throw dump-offs and bombs down the field, then you really aren't going to keep any LBs honest and those LBs will all be into the backfield on the running plays. You need at least some credible play action passes over the middle to keep those backers in place.
Delete"those LBs will all be into the backfield on the running plays"
DeleteYou mean like the Illinois game?
Credible would be nice. We don't have credible.
The WRs are not getting open consistently but it's irrelevant because when receivers DO get open (e.g., Edwards, Klein, Loveland) the throws are not coming their way. And if they are, they are off target.
ReplyDeleteThis is like someone without a driver's license complaining about a lack of horsepower in a car. An issue, theoretically.
How many Portal guys can we realistically take?
ReplyDeleteQB, RB, WR, TE, OL <--- I just listed every position group on offense. Maybe we can argue TE is OK if we're again willing to ignore the lack of legitimate in-line options.
Defense? LB might be alright with Hausman and Rolder come back. Beyond that? DL is off to the NFL and most of the secondary is turning over.
And that's not even including the unexpected departures of guys we would like to have back (e.g., Sabb, Waller, Moore)
Is Michigan going to take a 20-25 person portal class in the NIL era?
I mean, yes, they gotta do it but what does success even look like if they lean into the portal?
I think to avoid another catastrophic season, you cast a wide net. You're not going to fill every hole, but even one QB & and upgrade WR could have us at 6-1. Just one QB maybe gets that
DeleteGet a QB, WR, Tackle on offense. That's three. Get two DL & a Corner on D. That's six. A lot, but it's a program headed back in the right direction
Sherrone is fighting for his life here. Go big or go home
@je93
DeleteI agree that a QB (even the guy that Minnesota got) could perhaps have us at 6-1 in 2024.
2025 has a lot of holes all over the roster though. Replacing just the NFL guys we are going to lose is all but impossible.
You know I don't think RB matters much, but Edwards and Mullings are gone. 1 WR will go part of the way to replacing Loveland (who is functionally a WR for us at this point). A tackle replaces Hinton. Who replaces Priebe and the other guys treading water throughout the lineup?
The need is overwhelming. If they address things through the portal it would be at an unprecedented scale. The national champs brought in 13 guys last year. The 2024 team added 9 I think. The 2025 team needs WAY more than that.
The six I mentioned are must haves and somewhat realistic ... get more for competition & continue to develop youth, and we go from 5 or 6 wins to 7 or 8 ... not good enough, but progress. But I don't think we're getting two really good OL or three good DL. These transfers want to play (and make money)
DeleteIt's that bad, I agree. But so bad I think almost any progress is sufficient for 2o25
If you nail the portal with say the top 6-8 targets, you're still staring at a team that is struggling to get to 7 wins in 2025, IMO
DeleteYou'd need to get up to about 25 to move the needle, IMO. I don't see that as realistic. I'd be happy to be wrong.
We're looking at up to 9 losses next year. 8 guys coming in as major contributors could nudge tossups toward 7 or 8 wins, a good thing. Of course we'll want & try for more, but the immediate contributors isn't going to get that high
DeleteWe had 8 immediate portal contributors in 2023, on a loaded veteran team.
Delete8 won't even cover the NFL departures for 2025 (Graham, Grant, Stewart, Moore, Barham, Johnson, Loveland, Hinton, Edwards, Mullings).
There are teams pulling 20, 25, 30 guys from the Portal now. Typically these are teams with new coaches, granted, but Moore is functionally that given the late start in the 2024 offseason.
10-15 or so should be standard practice, even with continuity and a full roster. Georgia, Oregon, Texas took 11-14.
If Michigan wants Moore to succeed they have to take 25 guys at a minimum. The 2025 roster projects to be THAT bad. I very much doubt they will do what it takes.
I have never been less optimistic about a "next year" Michigan football team than I am right now.
Well if neither of us is confident we'll take that many transfers, we agree
DeleteIt's hard right now to imagine things being turned around to look like we are moving "in the right direction" in 2025.
Delete"After Saturday's 21-7 loss to Illinois, Sherrone Moore said he needs to re-evaluate himself as a head coach."
ReplyDeleteHe should. Sometimes people find themselves on stages too big for their experience, and the best thing for all involved is to admit to it and seek another to lead the team (or the ship, or the department, or whatever unit of organization we're talking about). Moore should absolutely do this, and be brutally honest with himself. It's becoming increasingly clear the stage at the University of Michigan is too big a place to have one's first head coaching experience.
Moore was clearly a trusted and valued assistant coach for Harbaugh, and he would no doubt be an excellent assistant coach for any number of programs around the country, including Michigan.
Here's the problem: Warde Manuel is not going to take action until he's absolutely backed into a corner. And if Moore doesn't initiate the change, then Manuel will let this linger on for at least three years, at which point a great deal of institutional damage had been done. If Moore does the self-evaluation and determines he's not called to the be the Michigan head coach, he should offer to resign at the end of this season. That gives Manuel his face-saving out, and allows for a coaching search with sufficient time. If Moore has head coaching aspirations, then find a MAC school to build his experience, and move up from there.
On the other hand, if Moore has a legitimate plan to renovate the program in the off season, then okay ... provided he actually has a plan, and is willing to execute on the plan. I'm not certain he does, or would.
I like Sherrone Moore, and I feel bad for him being caught in this situation. But at some point it's important for a man to admit where his limits are, and to take into consideration the well-being of the broader scope, then do the right thing.
He's not going to resign. That's even more fantastical than hoping Manuel fires him. He's not just going to quit on himself and the team. Zero chance.
DeleteThen let us hope he has a real revelation and does a wholesale house-cleaning of the assistant coaches, firing the worst, and demoting others; and hitting the portal in a significant and very high-dollar way. At this juncture I'm not sure he will. We're seven games deep into 2024, and there's only the smallest glimmer of him being aware there's a problem.
Delete@Anon
DeleteAgree on the last point. There's not much reason to hope right now. Things can change quickly in CFB though.
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I don't think Michigan is suddenly going to be at the top of Portal spending teams anymore than they will be at the top of high school spending teams.
I think the best hope might be for Moore/Manuel to put there heads together and get multiple analysts who are experienced veterans bringing head coaching, coordinator, and position coaching experience to the program to help the young staff out. Guys like Rick Minter and Poggi who are frankly overqualified to be analysts but might appreciate the role and the constraints inherent to it.
My suspicion is that Moore has focused his energy on addressing a (relative) deficiency of the Harbaugh program (high school recruiting) while assuming some other more fundamental things would just continue to happen as they have in the past. I found it troublesome that Moore seemed to spend most of his first few weeks visiting with recruits, but I did not hear that anywhere else.
Moore will not & should not resign
DeleteLose to sparty however, and I'm grabbing my virtual pitchfork ... even then, he stays. Lose out, and he stays
The rest of this season is an open audition, for young players & Asst Coaches
There's no need to "audition" the assistant coaches. The evidence is in.
DeleteAre you saying fire them all, now?
DeleteI find that unrealistic
No, I'm saying Moore finish out this year, then fire most of his staff. And then get serious about the job, or step down.
DeleteIs there any scenario where Kirk Campbell is retained? If no, th3n why "audition" any further?
DeleteThere is no benefit to in season firings. There isn't another OC waiting in the wings on this staff.
DeleteI didn't say to fire them in-season. But the point was made that the rest of the season is an "audition," and that implies a chance some of these coaches could be retained, if their "audition" is successful. I don't see any path for a successful "audition." That's not saying "fire them right now." It's saying they won't be around next year.
DeleteIF, somehow, they turned things around in the second half you could attribute a lot of things to a first year learning curve.
DeleteIMO, the bye week would have been the time to do that. It's not going to happen, but I don't agree the coaches have no opportunity here, just as I don't agree they had no opportunity to find a better QB in the Portal in March or April.
This is not really about the benefits of keeping them it's about the alternative of letting them going being no better, and probably even worse, since the staff would be short-handed.
We can go out and hire Indiana's OC in January, but we can't do it in October.
I have a little familiarity with Cignetti because he recruited some of our high school guys. Or, rather, it was his current OC Mike Shanahan (not that Mike Shanahan) who was recruiting coordinator doing most of the recruiting work at JMU. But those two have been together for about a decade, moving up the ranks. I think it would be weird for Shanahan to move on from Cignetti. I mean, it will have to happen at some point because Cignetti is 63 and Shanahan is considerably younger, but I don't know if Indiana OC to Michigan OC is a move Shanahan would make.
DeleteIt would be a good career move for him though. Like you said Thunder, eventually he will have to chart his own path. Indiana to Michigan is a big step up.
DeleteYesterday I was ready to have guys walk home. That's the emotional side of being a fan. More realistic is considering what leads to immediate improvement and if there are any costs
ReplyDelete- if we ditch Bellamy, do the WRs start making plays (who's throwing to them)? Do we lose WR commits?
- same with Morgan. Can we do better to replace the SpTms coach with another Secondary guy next year?
- can Campbell be demoted?
There are options, and half a season remains. This is MICHIGAN, and things tend to move more methodically here
My point is, no moves will make things better for the next five games.
That's probably true. However, no moves during this season can easily become no moves over the off-season. This is why Moore has to take a serious look at his organization, and make some hard choices. There's no guarantee he will, though he should.
DeleteI don't really think you can demote Campbell. He either stays as the OC or he leaves. He can't just go back to being the QB guy or something.
DeleteI wish I was a fly on the wall at the staff meetings in Schembechler Hall. I would like to see how strong Moore is as a leader of the other coaches. Effective leadership requires a walk along a fine line -- a need to feel "liked" and "buddies" with those under him is fatal; yet at the same time being too "my way or the highway" can be equally destructive. Given Moore is relatively young (38, I think), it has the potential to make it more difficult, particularly for those coaches older than him.
ReplyDeleteMy sense is he's giving Campbell too much leash. My guess is Moore's sense of loyalty is telling him at present to "trust his coaches" and let them run their part of the organization. Moore has an understanding of the offensive side of the ball, and at this point he should sit down with Campbell and tell him, matter-of-factly, "Kirk, what you're doing isn't working, and we have to move in another direction."
I think Moore has already made some tough decisions, so I'm not TOO worried about that.
DeleteI don't think a mid-season OC switch makes sense at this point. There's nobody on the staff who can do that job other than the head coach himself, and I just don't think Moore is in a place where he can take on that responsibility in his first year as head coach. Usually it seems like the OL coach or the QB coach is the guy who would take over as OC if there's a change, but the QB coach is Campbell and the OL coach is Newsome, and there's no way Newsome is going to be entrusted as an OC.
I could see Moore taking over playcalling duties, but Campbell has to stay on board through the end of the season.
I agree that Campbell says on as OC through the season; I never suggested a mid-season termination. That was something others suggested, but not me.
DeleteWhat I'm trying to think about is whether there's any path to the retention of Campbell as OC into next season. I would think that seven games is enough to understand what Campbell brings, and more importantly, what he does not bring. Anything is possible, but I can't imagine there being some kind of 'light bulb moment' for Campbell, where he goes from what he is now to being a highly effective OC next year. So in that sense, he's on borrowed time.
I suspect some other coaches on staff are as well. At least I hope so.
It took Jim Harbaugh several years -- almost seven years by my count -- to get really serious about his assistant coaching selections. I don't know for certain, but I suspect rather strongly that John and Jack Harbaugh had some role in getting Jim to see the light and make changes. Sherrone Moore does not have that much time.
So agree: no drastic changes mid-season. But next season, yes; the coaching structure this year dare not be carried over in full to next.
Harbaugh's 2015 coaching staff was good. There is nobody like Minter there but that coaching staff was pretty strong top to bottom with the exception of Drevno and Tolbert. I think a big change that happened between 2015 and 2023 was they got serious about analysts.
DeleteHarbaugh had some weird hires during his earlier years, and he didn't really seem to focus until 2021. We may never know, but something was going on with him outside of coaching ... he just seem *off*.
DeleteHarbaugh had some excellent hires, some good hires, and some terrible hires. This was true throughout his tenure. He hit some home runs obviously in the 2021-2023 (especially at DC) but it was not so black/white. The whole Shemmy Schembechler debacle was in that timeframe also.
DeleteHis batting average was high throughout his tenure, IMO. It was never perfect.
Personally I would support the hiring of Brian Ferentz to replace Kirk Campbell as OC. At the very least, we know he would run Mullings on first down and often.
ReplyDeleteLOL. Man this is harsh but has some merit. The gameplan of leaning into Jack Tuttle passing the ball, off a bye week, against a weak run defense, is the absolute dumbest coaching move I can remember seeing, ever, at Michigan.
DeleteIf Campbell is that dumb, and he is actively losing games because of his incompetence, why is there "no benefit to in-season firings?"
DeleteWhat is the benefit?
DeleteAgain, if he's actively losing games due to his incompetence -- which is what you suggested -- then the benefit is eliminate an active agent behind the losing of games. They may still lose the games, but that element of the active agency is removed.
DeleteI don't think the incompetence is limited to Campbell. You have to have a better option and I don't see that in house.
Delete"Taking care of the ball, that's going to be the No. 1 priority, the biggest thing," Moore said. "You want big plays, you want efficiency, but we have to take care of the football."
ReplyDeleteAt least they say they are focusing on the right thing. I am not at practice but based on what we have seen on Saturdays it is very obvious which QB has demonstrated the most ball security.
Pass efficiency. Warren 111, Tuttle 110, Orji 100
Pass attempts per INT. Warren 12, Tuttle 25, Orji 43
Fumbles. Warren 0, Tuttle 2, Orji 0
Sack yards lost. Warren 19, Tuttle 42, Orji 18
My opinion is that Orji should get the bulk of the snaps but I would rotate in Warren or Tuttle for their own series to see if you can keep the defense guessing a bit, if anyone is able to give you a spark, and if/when Orji struggles you give him a chance to regroup for his next series.
This is kind of funny to me, because it never boils down to anything so simple. Obviously, if ball security is the top issue, Orji should have started and kept the starting job. And after Tuttle turned it over twice against Washington, the coaches should have turned back to Orji.
DeleteAnd if ball security is the issue, Donovan Edwards should be a distant second behind Kalel Mullings.
So there's much more that goes into playing time decisions than ball security alone.
Coaches are right to prioritize ball security. But the reality is, we DO have to throw, and they obviously want to. Orji can't be trusted beyond 5yds, and the other two need to limit the quantity throws beyond 5yds (way too many the last two games)
DeleteBack when Orji was promoted, we said we would need to throw 15x a game ... the coaches only trusted him once to pass that much. They don't trust him
Limit the gimmick to short yardage situations
@Thunder
DeleteHere is where we agree:
"Obviously, if ball security is the top issue, Orji should have started and kept the starting job. " This is correct. We are 0-2 since Tuttle took over. It literally could not be worse.
"And after Tuttle turned it over twice against Washington, the coaches should have turned back to Orji." Yes. Probably earlier honestly. After the first drive of the second half against washington it was 3 and out, 3 and out, 1st down (off 3 straight mullings runs) followed by a fumble. Could have gone back to Orji right there and maybe still won the game. Instead it was 1st down (again with only Edwards/Mullings running the ball) followed by an INT on the 1st pass attempt.
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Edwards 2 fumbles in 3 games is the low point of his career IMO. He's never had ball security issues before so this is really disappointing to me. Mullings should be RB1.
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I think it is that simple in this case because all the other differences are negligible. Tuttle/Warren/Orji all can't pass the ball. I know they don't look the same. But none of them can pass and the defense can't give fewer than zero fucks that they are going to give to Tuttle/Warren.
@je93
DeleteWe won 2 games against decent teams by running the ball 40+ times and passing it less than 20 times (with Orji). This is the best strategy for this football team.
We can throw 25-35 times a game, because the defense is cheating to stop the run. It has not worked and it will continue to not work, because these QBs are not good enough to pass the ball 25 times a game!
And if they were, theoretically, we have the whole issue with WRs. But that's a moot point since Loveland gets open most of the time and when they throw to him the ball is accurate 30% of the time and ends up in the opponents hands frequently because they know he's the only threat.
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If you want to "limit the quantity of throws beyond 5 yards" what is the point of having Walkon Warren back there? All you're doing is electing to play 10 on 11 on run plays. Why?
Tuttle is at least a rush threat, but he is a walking turnover machine. Better off punting the ball than relying on him to move the ball through the air.
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I get what you guys are saying. I do. A pass game is very important LOL. I would choose an offense with a functional passing game over the Orji offense we've seen to date.
That option does not exist with Warren or Tuttle. I have seen it with my own eyes! The stats showing a passer rating of 110 are not lying. Except that it's actually worse. 2/3s of Warren's good stuff came against 2 cupcakes and Texas playing soft on the last drive of the game. Tuttle's only good stuff came on his first 3 drives, when the defense had prepared for Orji and had to improvise. They did and Tuttle was toast.
Tuttle's QBR against Illinois was 22.
Orji's QBR against USC was 23.
Warren's QBR against Ark State was 21.
These are our choices.
A functional passing attack is not on the menu.
We can talk about trust and balance all we want but this team does not have a QB who deserves trust or can offer balance.
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Orji is the least awful option for THIS team., which can run the ball and occasionally throw to Loveland, and nothing else. Maximize what you have and play to mitigate your inadequacies.
The option that limit turnovers and best supports our RBs is the best option.
I think we agree on the challenges facing this offense ... I predicted bad & was challenged. Turns out I was too generous
DeleteWe also agree on Orji. Statistically he's not good in the run, and basically not good enough to trust as a passer. Maybe you're right in that it's a good thing: not trusting him means we run more. I am on board for that
Work through it logically.
DeleteMore running means a more effective offense.
Not trusting the pass game means more running.
Which QB supports this?
------------------------------------------
Statistically, Warren and Tuttle and Orji are ALL not good enough to trust as passers.
There is no good reason to call out Orji exclusively.
-----------------------------------------------
This seems like a good as time as any to point out it's not really a black and white issue of trust and don't trust. Nor is it a black and white issue of can and can't pass. It's a matter of degree of trust.
Pass attempts per game
Orji 15 (in his two games)
Warren 24 (in his 3 games)
Tuttle 32 (in his 1 game)
Let's use this as an indicator of the level of trust. Passing less significantly more often with Warren or Tuttle (not accounting for scrambling opportunites). But let's also consider the context -- Tuttle and Warren were trusted to pass more than twice as often against Texas and Illinois where we were down the whole game and Orji was used either not at all or barely. Warren averaged 20 pass attempts in his 2 other games and the close Washington game Tuttle had 18 pass attempts across 3 quarters.
If you are using Orji rotationally, as Thunder suggests, the difference in the pass game are shrinking.
Assuming equivalent conditions (full game, competitive throughout, no QB rotation) I think you'd see something like:
15-20 pass attempts by Orji
25-30 pass attempts by Warren
Tuttle would probably be somewhere in between (20-25).
Meanwhile let's compare effectiveness.
Passer ratings are 110, 111, and 100.
The difference in results doesn't seem to warrent the difference in trust/usage.
------------------------------------------------
So it's a worthwhile question to ask which you prefer to see. And if your answer is 15-20 passes from Warren rather than Orji, you may ask yourself if it's worth the sacrifice to the run game that is inherent in having a one dimensional QB on the other 40 plays that are going to be runs.
If it's Tuttle I think he presents a similar benefit to Orji on the other 40 plays that are runs. But now you've got an extra turnover or 2 to deal with.
The choice of which flavor of poop you want to smell seems obvious to me.
I have been down on the entire QB room since January, but it was dismissed as "loser thinking" ... if we're considering context, the necessity to pass is based on the desire to back the Defense away from the run ... with Orji, he wasn't trusted much beyond 5yds, with only ONE pass beyond 1oyds
DeleteCoaches' restraint explains the lack of turnovers, whereas Sam said in fall camp it was a much bigger problem. Why? Is it because they gave orji more chances downfield in camp, and it proved disastrous? I think that's a fair assumption considering the short leash we've seen in games
I see we're here just to argue with Lank. Why don't you find the link and the quote. Otherwise I'll assume this is just another fantasy.
DeleteEveryone understands the benefit of a functional passing game. The question for you is why you assume the non-Orji options are going to deliver that when they haven't. Not at Michigan. Not at Indiana. Not in High School (in Warren's case).
If the coaches aren't restraining themselves to avoid turnovers (and it seems with Tuttle and Warren they have not) they should make a change.
I don't dispute that Orji is likely to throw plenty of INTs if he is passing the ball 25-30 times a game. But between the choice of a)knowing your limitations and choosing to pass less or b)having someone else pass 25 times a game, the answer, with this roster, is A. To me, that is obvious. Tuttle and Warren have proven to be highly turnover prone and Orji's turnover proneness is theoretical (even if reasonably logical).
It then follows, if you are passing 15 times and running 40+ times, what is the most effective option from there? If your QB is going to run the ball 10 times a game - who is more effective and less likely to fumble? If your QB is not presenting a run threat, how does that affect your run game?
Coaches restraint <--------------- a good thing. Seemingly lacking for most of the season.
Quotes on what? Links to what? If you want to challenge me, make it a bet and be specific. You'll deny, dodge & move the target, but I accept all those as Dubs anyway
DeleteWho said the coaches trust the other two QBs, or should? Read again: I have been down on this QB room since January. I was told that's loser thinking, but if anything I wasn't down enough
The point is, as bad as Warren & Tuttle were at passing, the coaches trust Orji even LESS. Why? Based on camp talk and limited time we've seen him behind Center, it's because he sucks even WORSE. Tuttle gets benched after one start, and they go back to Warren? The gimmick is that bad
A quote and a link to something you were correct about and I was wrong about. The way this works is you go "here is something Lank said" with a quote and a link and they you go "here is me saying the opposite" with a quote and a link, and then some facts that prove you right and me wrong.
Delete"I have been down on the entire QB room since January, but it was dismissed as "loser thinking" ... "
You keep pretending like you were seeing how bad this is while everyone told you how great Orji was going to be. This didn't happen Jelly. It's your fantasy. Literally everyone here agreed they should hit the portal. I predicted Tuttle would start over Orji all while talking about how Tuttle sucked and arguing with Thunder about his talent. Remember? I kept talking about his age and experience as being a factor to give him the edge.
There is no contradiction here with HOPE that Orji would make a leap and be the guy. Once Walkon Warren was named starter it was clear that hope was dead and the QB situation was the worst case scenario.
So keep bragging about how you were right all day just no that you never proved anyone else wrong. You made the same observation that everyone else made, you just dismissed Orji more aggressively because you don't value running QBs. To you, it's a gimmick.
-----------------------------------------
ON THAT topic:
Warren and Orji have played 196 and 175 snaps respectively on the season. They have both been benched.
Again, nobody is disputing you on Orji being a lesser passer than Warren or Tuttle.
You're just choosing to IGNORE the fact that Orji is playing QB -- and playing it just as well, if not better than Warren and Tuttle, despite not being as good of a passer. Because what matters is how good of a QB you are, not only how good of a passer you are.
On the season Warren has an edge statistically as a passer (117 vs 100) and in QBR (53 vs 48). However, it is very close! And it's very close despite Warren benefiting from playing 3 of his 4 first games against the worst opponents on the schedule, while Orji's 3 starts came against 3 defenses that rank in the top 35 nationally.
Warren has been trusted to play in 4 games. Orji has been trusted in 7.
Warren was trusted to throw 19 times in a narrow win over MSU (to Orji's 0). Orji was trusted to throw 18 times in a narrow win over Minnesota (to Warren's 0).
I think the macro view here runs counter to your assertion that Orji is just a gimmick. 10 more "gimmick" snaps Saturday to go with the best 2 wins of the season. Maybe we should define what that word means. Probably will be a lot of nuance there LOL.
You mean like the other threads & topics? You ask for quotes, I give you quotes. You ask for links, I give you links. You ask for data, I give you data. You even asked for X's & O's guys, and I give you coaches, bloggers, former players & current head coaches IN THE GAME DISCUSSED ... each time, you move the target, deny or insist you're right anyway. Now you're trying to change the argument to je not liking running QBs or that I dismiss Orji more aggressively (despite repeatedly listing Warren as my least preferred)
DeleteHow about a bet? Bet me that I didn't predict our QB mess. Bet me that you didn't argue against for months, specifically calling it "loser thinking" ... even while listing QB is Portal need #1 ... BET ME
The rest of your post is garbage & excuses. You dodged & ran away from the Washington bet. Here's another chance ... TAKE THE BET BOY!
No quotes No links Just dodging and changing the subject.
DeleteThat's what you are doing. You WANT to argue with LANK so bad you invent a fantasy. Even when disproved, with quotes, with links, you keep going.
When challenged, you dodge. And more of that here. I challenge you to prove yourself right relative to others (specifically, ME!) with quotes and with links. How do you prove anyone else wrong?
Didn't happen. But here you are claiming you were right when everyone was right. Claiming victory over the sea of Orji-lovers predicting great things. Never happened! A fantasy.
Your insults don't work lil buddy. Sorry! Too Small!
I don't remember what quote (no links!) you are talking about but LOSER THINKING....yeah that sounds to me like I was probably spot on there, if that's what I said. Forever loser thinking! Like when you told NFL QB Joe Milton to transfer to D3 instead of facing up to a challenge...
Soooo ... you're dodging another bet AND changing topic to Milton
DeleteDamn, I'm good
I asked for Xs and Os on the Edwards TD. You dodged to talk about something different.
Deletenot built for it.
"even while listing QB is Portal need #1"
DeleteLOLOL. Not even you believe you.
Did I say QB was the #1 need in the portal? Oh yeah.....even you remember that I did.
Did I say Tuttle was bad at Indiana and lacked talent and his only hope was to use his possible advantage in age and experience to manage things?
I did.
Did I say Warren lacked talent and the idea that he was overlooked as a recruit was a fantasy? Did I point out that at 22 he hasn't started a game since JV?
Oh yeah, I did that too.
Did I HOPE that Orji would develop between sophomore year but expect him to be a backup to Tuttle on opening day?
Check check and check.
Add it all up and the Portal was the way. I was right.
Meanwhile here you are STILL crying about lack of playmakers, like it matters. Like Loveland hasn't been getting open ALL YEAR (sorry except USC when he was injured and Minny when he was still limited). Meanwhile you are busy criticizing Don and saying it's all about Mullings, even though Don's outproducing Mullings since Orji was the only QB LOL.
BET ME that I didn't! I dare you betboy.
Loser thinking? Sounds like Jelly alright.
LOL. You aren't built for this. Too small. 2ooDuMb!
So do you take the bet? That looong post revisits your bothsideism, and lies some more
DeleteQuit dodging boy!
Thunder, a lot of fans are frustrated because we all think that "ground and pound" should be our identity. We have seen Moore do it against Penn State last year. Why do you think the coaches have gone away from their identity and try out this new awful offensive scheme (whatever it is)?
ReplyDeleteNot Thunder but the answer is obvious to me. They don't know what they are doing. They are in over their heads. They are not ready for this stage.
DeleteThey had a bye week to think over how to recover from the Washington game and decided throwing with Jack Tuttle was the way to beat Illinois, who can't stop the run against anyone.
They are incompetent. It's that simple.
I think "incompetent" might be a strong word. The truth is that some of these plays are there to be made. Campbell is scheming open receivers at times. They are using different formations and personnel.
DeleteI do think they misevaluated the QB position, whether it's thinking Orji could do the job or whether thinking Tuttle is a decent enough stand-in for McCarthy. I thought one or the other would be better than they are. I also think there were some issues with recruiting over the past few years, and now they're paying the price. With the players they have at receiver, for example, there's not a whole lot there.
I do think Campbell is a poor fit for what Orji is. He has not done a good job figuring out what Orji is good at and rolling with that. And I refuse to believe that Orji is incapable of doing SOME things. As hard as I have been on Orji as a passer, I have continually called for him to have packages in the run game, and it's baffling to me that he's been benched for basically the last 7 quarters.
So...while "incompetent" is a strong word, in my opinion, I just don't think it's a great fit for what the personnel is.
I like a lot of Campbell's play calls and I think he is pretty creative.
DeleteWhat makes him incompetent is pretending like he has the personnel to execute them. He is either misevaluating his players or he is deluding himself into thinking he can outsmart opposing DCs enough to make up for them.
Either way, he's incompetent as an OC at this point.
It's probably not his fault but he was promoted to a job he is not qualified for. But there is no offense in America that is doing less with the 4 NFL draft picks (Hinton, Mullings, Loveland, Edwards), a veteran OL, and a handful of 4-star WRs.
The discrepancy between the gameplan and personnel (at QB especially) is incompetent to me. And the constant shuffling at QB, OT, and WR reinforces the observation that they don't know what they are doing.
Campbell is the OC so he is responsible, but I doubt it is ALL on him.
Moore is the head coach, so he's even more responsible-r.
Delete"And I refuse to believe that Orji is incapable of doing SOME things."
DeleteAt some point we're going to hear or read of the story behind all this. I find it nearly impossible to believe Orji struggles in practice, otherwise he would never have seen the field. There are YouTube videos of him chucking balls way down field, right into the hands of a receiver. By all accounts, he's very athletic, so he must be capable of runs. I'm guessing that in practice, and in QB drills, he shows enough ... something ... to make Campbell and Moore imagine the possibilities.
And then in live game action ... we get what we see.
I've seen similar things in the business world: I've seen people in one-on-one meetings who come across as knowledgeable, with a calm and assuring demeanor. But put them in front of a room full of clients and ... they stiffen up, and all those things seen in private are hidden.
We were talking earlier about the qualities of a QB that are most important, with Thunder offering accuracy, and Lank offering ability to process quickly. The two are related, I think: accuracy can diminish in the face of a mind overloaded with what's going on in the moment. The poor pass protection by the OL does not help with this. Even on plays where Orji could keep, I suspect what he sees in game action is too much to process, and he momentarily freezes.
None of this excuses Moore and Campbell, but I do wonder if it explains some of what we're seeing with Orji. The "what if" test would be to see what another QB/OC coach could do with Orji. Joe Milton went from Michigan to Tennessee and became relatively productive. I wonder if Orji would be the same.
I have 3 simple wishes this Saturday (at least try out for 1 half) against MSU:
Delete1) Pound the Balls with Mullings and Bredeson.
2) Use Edwards as a 3rd down back.
3) Throw a play action pass every once every 7-8 plays.
I do not care if we start Davis or Orji or Tuttle. If we lose, then perhaps this season is hopeless to begin with. Blame talent evaluation at the beginning of the year.
@FT
DeleteI would like to see both backs approach 20 touches. We need to get the ball out of the QB's hands.
Cannot just blame talent evaluation at the beginning of the year when the offensive strategy against Illinois was to pass more often with Tuttle than JJ (who had one game in his CAREER with more than 30 pass attempts). Tuttle had 32....against a defense that can't stop the run. WTF.
@Thunder
Yes Moore is to blame also. But the defense is fine so Moore gets credit for that to offset the cluster on offense. Campbell has no offset. And while I've been critical of the OL, that doesn't seem to be the biggest problem anymore. They aren't great but they also aren't terrible, so Newsome can't be singled out either. Campbell is the top target for blame.
@Anon
I agree with what you are saying in the real world with the lights on. However, I don't think this is just an issue of Orji pressing. I think we would have seen him be the real backup QB last year instead of a run package guy if he was really playing well in practice and just not ON with the lights on.
Orji, Tuttle, and Warren are all on the same level as QBs and none of them are good. We see that in games. And every indicator we have from the coaches would indicate that they are performing similarly in practice as well. Tuttle and Warren may have more talent as passers (as Thunder asserts). Tuttle may have more experience. Orji may have more athleticism. In the end it's clear all 3 of them are not very good, in either practice or games, or things would not be playing out as they are playing out.
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For Milton I think it was less about a change in coaching (though that seemed to help too) and more about development over time. That includes learning lessons about his own limitations and decision-making. Remember this is a guy who didn't have all the QB camp and skills development advantages that some of the other QBs had in middle school and high school. He was raw coming into college, more raw than most, and everyone knew it. That's why he wasn't a blue chip recruit despite the very obvious and very impressive physical traits.
Orji is very different but has some of the same issues of being raw as a passer because he was used more for his athleticism throughout most of his career, including the first 2 years at Michigan. So perhaps the development will never happen and perhaps he is just functioning more like a true freshman than as a junior in the context of the pass game.
It's very possible he has the best arm in the QB room, but it doesn't matter if he has no idea how to use it.
Updated QB comparison over the last 4 games:
ReplyDeleteOrji offense vs USC, Minn, Wash: 26 drives, 47 points, 3 turnovers
Tuttle offense vs Wash and Ill: 17 drives, 24 points, 5 turnovers
while we all all see the correlation, I find it ridiculous to assume this is BECAUSE of orji. The coaches seem to agree
DeleteIs it ridiculous to think that offensive effectiveness is heavily influenced by the QB?
DeleteSeems like the burden of proof is on the person asserting the QB does not have a big effect.
My hot take: QBs matter.
You're still correlating ...
DeleteOf course QB matters. Passing is vital to a successful offense, even in Harball. That's why the coaches benched Orji, after refusing to start him through three games and why ... after 36 games in college, we have only ONE pass over 1o yards
I'm correlating where there is causality. What the QB does, can do, and can't do ----> affects the RB.
DeleteYou see a benefit with the QB pass but not the QB run, but the stats don't back you up. Best pass game of the season on Saturday correlated with the worst game of the year for the RBs.
Passing is vital? To what? What matters is winning games, not the passing yards you accumulate.
Season highs in passing yards were against Illinois (7 points) and Texas (12 points). Season lows in passing yards were against Minnesota and USC (27 points each).
We are 5-1 when throwing for fewer than 125 yards. We are 0-2 when throwing for more than 125 yards.
Need to pass enough to keep em from cheating. Except when you can't (Tuttle/Warren/Orji) or when you don't (OSU 2022, PSU 2023, USC 2024)
Who said I didn't see a benefit to QB running? Not me. I'm saying Orji is not why we won Minnesota or SC. He actually sucked, with the lowest PFF v SC, and the only lower UFR v Minnesota being Edwards. Orji had 43, 12 and 11yds in his three starts, with a YPC that never went over 3.7 ... that's not impactful, and resulted in his benching
DeleteThere's your data. Meanwhile, you're still correlating, without showing causation ...
Reality is, Mullings put on a cape against SC. That effort & those broken tackles will go down in MICHIGAN history ... trying to credit Orji is simply wrong
Anyway, we won a rivalry game Saturday and Orji was used better than ever. Time to move on
Are you showing causation? Or are you correlating? Google hypocrite.
DeleteWho said Orji is "why we won"?
Turnovers were way down with Orji at QB relative to the other options. That's why we didn't lose.
That's impactful.
Time to move on? I agree. I applaud you for waving the white flag.
LankOctober 23, 2024 at 3:24 PM
DeleteUpdated QB comparison over the last 4 games:
Orji offense vs USC, Minn, Wash: 26 drives, 47 points, 3 turnovers
Tuttle offense vs Wash and Ill: 17 drives, 24 points, 5 turnovers
je93October 24, 2024 at 12:02 AM
while we all all see the correlation, I find it ridiculous to assume this is BECAUSE of orji. The coaches seem to agree
LankOctober 24, 2024 at 11:04 AM
Is it ridiculous to think that OFFENSIVE EFFECTIVENESS is heavily influenced by the QB?
Seems like the burden of proof is on the person asserting the QB does not have a big effect
This goes on, with only one mention of turnovers, and plenty on points, passing yards, etc
I said it wasn't because of orji, you said it was. I gave you his PFF, MGo ratings & stats ... you have feelings ... too easy!
#quotes
#data
#n0tbUiLtf0rtHiS
je93's next prediction: LyinLank will dodge & deny. BET ME BOY!
So nobody said Orji was why we won?
DeleteThanks for playing. Hold it up.
The offense was better with Orji. Orji isn't why we won. There is no contradiction here dumbdumb.
Tuttle ensures a loss, because of turnovers. That doesn't mean Orji goes out and wins games for us.
Again, you can't keep up JELLY. You make things up in your head, conflating statements and arguments, because you can't process information. 2ooDuM.
This is why whenever you are challenged to find a quote to back up your fantasy, you fail. You lie to yourself and then get all worked up when somebody proves you wrong. You aren't built for this.
Hold it up your freshest one.
A lie. Caught in the act. LOLOLOL
DeleteQuotes. Time stamps ... denial
DeleteEasy dub. Again