RUSH OFFENSE vs. WASHINGTON RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #34 in rush offense (194.8 yards/game) and #44 in yards per carry (5.13). Kalel Mullings has emerged as the top running back (77 carries, 540 yards, 6 TD) with Donovan Edwards (59 carries, 258 yards, 2 TD) still playing a big role as a backup. QB Alex Orji is the third-leading rusher, but he has just 55 yards on 22 carries since taking over as the starter two weeks ago. LT Myles Hinton is likely to miss the game due to injury, and naturally, he's Michigan's best lineman, so fifth year senior Jeffrey Persi will likely get the start on the left side. According to PFF, Persi is the second best run blocker of the linemen, so perhaps the drop-off there will not be too significant. The rest of the line has been overwhelming, but it will be interesting to see if Michigan's platoon of Dominick Giudice and Greg Crippen continues at center. Defensively, Washington is #51 in rush defense (121.8 yards allowed/game) and #58 in yards allowed per carry (3.74). Last week they gave up 184 yards on 33 carries to Rutgers, including 25 attempts for 132 yards and 1 touchdown by Kyle Monongai. The leading tackler is senior MLB Carson Bruener (6'2", 226) with 30 tackles, followed by fifth year senior WLB Alphonzo Tuputala (6'2", 230) with 25. The Huskies start five transfers, including two on the defensive line; head coach Jedd Fisch brought with him from Arizona a redshirt sophomore DE/OLB Isaiah Ward (6'5", 227), who is quite clearly undersized. Senior DT Sebastian Valdez (6'4", 305) is in his first season at the FBS level after transferring from Montana State.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. WASHINGTON PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #130 in passing offense (115.4 yards/game), #130 in yards per attempt (5.3), and #121 in passing efficiency. Alex Orji (20/36, 133 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) is expected to start his third game. TE Colston Loveland leads the team with 23 catches for 228 yards and 1 touchdown. Nobody else has more than 69 receiving yards, and that guy is #2 tight end Marlin Klein. Woof. Also, the offensive line is bad at pass blocking, particularly RT Evan Link, who has posted two 0.0 grades in pass blocking from PFF this year. Washington is #6 in pass defense (128 yards allowed/game) and #3 in defensive passing efficiency. It helps that they have played some poor passing offenses, but then again, that's exactly what Michigan is. Three of the five secondary members are transfers, including Portland State transfer Cameron Broussard, whom Michigan tried to land in the off-season, too. Tuputala and redshirt junior DE Zach Durfee (6'5", 256) both lead the team with 2.5 sacks, followed by senior DE Voi Tunuufi (6'1", 282) with 1.5 quarterback takedowns. Broussard is the weak spot in the secondary while senior CB Thaddeus Dixon (6'1", 186) is the only member of the secondary with an interception this year. Why am I even talking about this?
Advantage: Washington
RUSH DEFENSE vs. WASHINGTON RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is a respectable #6 in rushing defense (68.8 yards allowed/game) and #9 in yards allowed per carry (2.75). Both Texas and USC topped 100 yards rushing against the Wolverines on designed runs, but Michigan's sacks of USC quarterback Miller Moss dropped them down to 96. It has been a good unit, at least until they get tired late in games. LB Ernest Hausmann (28), LB Jaishawn Barham (24), and S Makari Paige (20) lead the team in tackles, but it's unclear if Paige will play this week after suffering an injury late in the Minnesota game. Defensive tackles Mason Graham, Rayshaun Benny, and Kenneth Grant have combined for 8 tackles for loss. Offensively, Washington starts nine transfer players; all are in their first year at Washington except former Michigan WR Giles Jackson, who has been there since 2022. They're #61 in yards per game (173.2) but #32 in yards per carry (5.35). Junior RB Jonah Coleman (5'9", 229) came from Arizona with Fisch and has jumped out to a great start with 72 carries for 521 yards (7.2 yards/carry) and 4 touchdowns. He has speed, agility, and strength and looks like a player who will play in the NFL. Redshirt sophomore RT Drew Azzopardi (6'7", 308) has been atrocious, while redshirt junior LT Maximus McCree (6'6", 295) has played fairly well while starting the past two games. Four starting linemen are transfers, with the only holdover being LG Gaard Memmelaar (6'4", 299). If Michigan can get off the field defensively and stay fresh, this is an advantage for Michigan. If the offense can't sustain drives, this matchup could get worse as the game wears on.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. WASHINGTON PASS OFFENSE
Star cornerback Will Johnson should return for Michigan this week after sitting out the Minnesota game following a hard hit he took against USC. That will be very important for a secondary that will be facing a very efficient passing game. It will also help to get DE Josaiah Stewart back. Those are two of Michigan's three best defenders - along with Graham - and they both missed last week's game, which I feel like made the difference between a comfortable two- or three-score win to a three-point victory. However, Michigan is #103 in pass defense (248.8 yards allowed/game). They're better on a per play basis (#24 in yards per attempt at 6.0, #55 in pass efficiency defense), but they have leaked yardage late in games when the pass rush gets tired. Washington is #24 in passing offense (296.2 yards/game), #18 in yards per attempt (9.1), and #10 in passing efficiency. Mississippi State transfer QB Will Rogers (6'2", 216) is completing 74.8% of his passes for 9.2 yards/attempt, 10 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. A few years ago, he threw for 4,739 yards and 36 touchdowns in Starkville, so he's an accomplished player. Redshirt sophomore WR Denzel Boston (6'4", 209) leads the way with 412 yards and 7 touchdowns, but Giles Jackson actually leads the team in catches (34) and has added 401 yards and 1 score. Fifth year senior WR Jeremiah Hunter (6'2", 212) has 16 catches for 201 yards and 1 score. The starting TE is senior Nevada/Cal transfer Kaleki Latu (6'7", 244) with 13 catches, but backup TE Decker DeGraaf (6'3", 240) is someone to watch with just 5 catches but for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns as a true freshman. Washington is #50 in sacks allowed per game (1.5) with RT Azzopardi the weak spot. I have a feeling that Michigan and the pass rush are going to wear out as the game goes along, and in what I expect to be a pretty close game, Washington will take over the advantage late in the game.
Advantage: Washington
ROSTER NOTES
- Washington players offered by Michigan include: RB Sam Adams II, S Cameron Broussard, OL Landen Hatchett, WR Giles Jackson, CB Dyson McCutcheon, LB Hayden Moore, RB Daniyel Ngata, CB Caleb Presley, DE Jayden Wayne
- Washington WR Giles Jackson played for Michigan in 2019-2020, totaling 24 catches for 309 yards and 1 touchdown; he also rushed 12 times for 74 yards and 1 touchdown; returned 37 kickoffs for 976 yards and 2 touchdowns; and returned 2 punts for 5 yards
- Washington LB Hayden Moore signed with Michigan in 2023 and redshirted, transferring to UW this past off-season
- Washington LB Carson Bruener is the son of former Washington and NFL TE Mark Bruener
- Washington DT Russell Davis II is the son of former North Carolina and NFL DT Russell Davis
- Washington HC Jedd Fisch coached quarterbacks and wide receivers at Michigan in 2015-2016
- Washington DC Steve Belichick is the son of former New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick
- Washington QB coach Jimmy Dougherty was an offensive analyst at Michigan in 2016
- Washington Director of Player Personnel Matt Doherty worked in Michigan's recruiting department in 2015
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- Michigan beat Washington by a score of 34-13 in the national championship game on January 8, 2024
PREDICTION
- Washington 23, Michigan 17
Woke up this morning feeling Loss, but all week it's been 2o-1o good guys
ReplyDeleteYeah, I've waffled back and forth on this one.
DeleteSC > UW
DeleteMinn = UW
our DL should dominate their OL, as it did their Joe Moore Line last year ... our Secondary should hold up
It's all on our O ... grind the clock down. Don't turn it over. Escape with the Dub
Observations
Delete(Pre Game)
- Tuttle warned up as QB2
- Rod Moore limping, bad
(Game)
- Stadium was electric on key 3rd Downs!
- the gimmick sucks ... why so many passes on the first two drives?
- Tuttle isn't very good, but only needs to be NOT bad ... by not sucking, he immediately opened up the offense. Start him, and maaaybe we win
- and it was just in time for The Don!!!
- if we're going to pass, why not throw more to Don - he was HOT! And open!
- UW OL mostly abused, but gave Will Howard too much time, on just enough occasions
- UW OL run blocking wasn't great either, opened just enough holes for a respectable run game
- Jaiyrie Hill cooked ... I had 2o2o flashbacks in the 1st Half
- Zeke cooked ... then Zeke Berry said "hold my beer"
- we missed Amir Hall & Jaden McBurrows. Not because they're great or even good, but both Hall & Berry played games that not even mom would want to talk about. They sucked
- UW backup QB throws better than our two backups ... THAT'S how bad our QB room is
- Offense died after the first drive of the 3Q ... passing when we didn't need to screwed up rythm & stopped the clock
- frustrating that our OL just couldn't get it done
- in the 4Q, Don tripped on grass again ... Coaches let him get cold and wasted his momentum
- still too many pass attempts for a backup QB, in a hostile environment, in his first game of the year
- not enough Don & Mullings ... two of our best players have to take turns so that Bell, CJ and Oleary can get their snaps
- I'm not sure any of our WRs would start on another P4 team. They just don't get open or make plays
(Post Game)
- Stadium was LOUD on key Downs & Drives! But not sure why UW fans stormed the field though
- UW fans were super nice. Asking if we enjoyed ourselves, if we were treated well, etc
- we also had some old timers asking why we didn't run more, which hurt
- we saw the Loveland family before the game, and MGo Seth after
Sucks to lose, but this wouldn't have even been close if the UW Kicker had not been awful ... I hope Sherrone has a guy (or crew) dedicated to tampering in the portal: QB, WR, OL, DL, CB ... the list will be long
It sounds like you had a good time despite the loss, je. I'm glad the Washington fans were nice. I'd like to make it there sometime for a game.
DeleteHighly recommended! When I was in NOLA, we hit most the SEC schools, Florida St, aTM, Texas & SMU. Absolutely WILD
DeleteI was surprised though at how loud Washington fans were, yet nowhere near as rowdy ... polite even. The only other Pac1o experience I had was USC (okay) and Cal (relatively boring)
*CBus fans = Oakland Raiders bad
I wish we see more of Tuttle and way less of Orji going forward. You are not going to win many games with Orji at QB. It is too easy to game plan against him. Unless you plan to run a triple option offense. Enough Orji. He is an athlete not a QB. Get him to switch to LB.
ReplyDeleteMore of Edwards and Mullings in the backfield together. So many fans and observers are asking for this. What are the coaches seeing that we are not? Edwards at RB is better than whoever at WR.
Moore needs to demote Campbell back to QB coach and let go of Wink. I am not seeing a good gameplan from both offense and defense. Giles Jackson got the bettter of our defense. Giles Jackson: someone who most of us think is not that big of a loss for us. That is because Washington coaches put a better game plan. In-game adjustment is also poor from both offense and defense.
Agree on Tuttle. We won't win anything special this year, but two of Illinois, sparty & Indiana would be great
DeleteI know Oregon is much better, but these pac12 teams traveling across country & playing at a rock throwing, manball pace can be brutal ... see SC at Minnesota & Washington at Rutgers. I think we have shot if Moore can rally the troops
We need to RUN THE BALL, kill the clock and keep our Defense rested. Pass as little as you can get away with, using both (or more) RBs ... chill on the pass rush a bit; keep everything in front of the D, and ferGodsakes make a dang tackle!
It's time to admit just how wrong I was. I thought QB room was bad, but it sucks. I thought WR room was a question mark, but it's atrocious I thought the OL would be okay and improve through the season, but it's really bad. We have an AA TE with no one to throw it to him, and two RBs who have no QB help, little OL work and no playbook that makes up for weaknesses
ReplyDeleteWhat part of this team is better than expected, or even improved from Game 1??? Oof, none?
It's very difficult to make sense of what we're seeing. I don't want to move to the conclusion that the coaches are in over their heads and lost, but that's where I'm trending.
DeleteI like Sherrone Moore. He seems like a good man. But he probably could have used a few more years at OC before being put on center stage. I fear if he fails here, it'll be a while before he gets near HC at a program like Michigan again, if ever.
It may be one or a combination of HC, OC and OL coach getting to where they are too soon, with too little to work with
DeleteI also agree that Moore seems to be overwhelmed this season. But what really puzzled me is Moore was the OC under Harbaugh. He of all people should be in the best position to evaluate how good/bad the talent on the offensive side of the ball.
DeleteI think the past 3 years have made our coaches overconfident in their ability to coach up their players.
I am afraid if there is no significant improvement in the second half of the season, coach Moore will be on the hot seat next year.
@ FT 9:03 p.m.
DeleteI somewhat agree with you when it comes to overconfidence. I think Michigan running the ball 32 straight times against PSU and winning made them feel like that could be a recipe for continued success. But that was an anomaly and can't be a long-term plan.
That being said, all other things being roughly equal, the team with the better QB usually wins. Washington had a good pass defense and better receivers; Michigan had a better run defense and better running backs. The real difference was that Washington had Will Rogers, and Michigan had Alex Tuttle.