Preview: Michigan vs. Michigan State

 

Michigan State WR Nick Marsh (image via Yahoo! Sports)

RUSH OFFENSE vs. MSU RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is a disappointing 45th in rushing offense (180.3 yards/game) despite being unable to do the whole passing thing well. They average 4.76 yards/carry, which ties them for 54th nationally. Kalel Mullings (110 carries, 676 yards, 7 TD) is the leader in the backfield, while backup Donovan Edwards (80 carries, 391 yards, 3 TD) gave up his second fumble of the season last Saturday. It might be worth mentioning QB Alex Orji, too, who has not played for the majority of the past two games (he played three series against Washington) but who has 35 carries for 124 yards this year. With the turnovers given up by QB Jack Tuttle over the past couple weeks, the staff may work in Orji a little more. Michigan had three new starters on the offensive line last week with Jeff Persi at LT, Greg Crippen at C, and Andrew Gentry at RT, but starting LT Myles Hinton - Michigan's best lineman - may return on Saturday. Defensively, Michigan State is #53 in rushing defense (131.1 yards/game) and #46 in yards allowed per carry (3.78). The last three teams MSU has played have averaged over 5.2 yards/carry, but two of those are top-five teams in Ohio State and Oregon, and the third was Iowa, which has a pretty solid running back in Kaleb Johnson; Johnson had 14 carries for 98 yards and 1 score, but one of those carries was a 75-yard touchdown, so his other 13 attempts went for 23 yards. The leading tackler is senior Wisconsin transfer Jordan Turner, a Farmington High School product, who is a 6'1", 231 lb. middle linebacker with 43 stops. Next is fifth year senior LB Cal Haladay (6'1", 233) with 34 tackles and then junior UCF transfer strong safety Nikai Martinez (5'11", 191) with 31. Former Michigan DT commit Alex Van Sumeren (6'3", 300) and fifth year senior D'Quan Douse (6'2", 300) start at defensive tackle, but the Spartans rotate a lot of players in the front seven to keep them fresh. I do think Michigan can have success on the ground . . . if they use Kalel Mullings and Alex Orji appropriately, which is unfortunately a question mark.
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for more.

PASS OFFENSE vs. MSU PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is an abomination in the passing game, ranking #129 in yards per game (128), #132 in yards per attempt (5.4), and #127 in passing efficiency. Nobody knows at this point which QB will start the game after Sherrone Moore declared it an open QB competition, but Tuttle, Orji, and Davis Warren have all been subpar. Tuttle and Warren have both been able to force feed Michigan's top receiving target, TE Colston Loveland, who has 36 catches for 355 yards and 2 touchdowns; he has 13 catches for 116 yards and 1 TD the past two weeks with Tuttle. Michigan fared a little better in pass protection last week with RT Andrew Link being replaced by Andrew Gentry, but they're still not great. They give up 1.86 sacks per game, which is a middle-of-the-pack #62 nationally . . . but when you consider they're a run-heavy offense, that's not quite so impressive. Michigan State is #31 in pass defense (192 yards allowed/game) and allows 7.1 yards per attempt, which ranks #69. They're #67 in pass efficiency defense. Again, keep in mind that they have played a couple solid passing teams in Oregon and Ohio State (along with some poor passing programs like Prairie View A&M and Iowa). Michigan State's secondary has not been good, but that's only of minimal comfort to Michigan fans, since Wolverines quarterbacks are generally unable to capitalize on a weak secondary. Redshirt junior CB Charles Brantley (6'0", 170) has the top coverage grade from Pro Football Focus and has 3 interceptions this season, including a 100-yard TD return against Prairie View. The weak spots in the back seven are weakside linebacker Haladay and nickel corner Angelo Grose (5'10", 192), a fifth year senior with 23 tackles and 1 interception this year. Last year J.J. McCarthy was able to take advantage of a poor back seven and feed tight ends Loveland and A.J. Barner, and while that still looks like an enticing plan of attack for the tight ends, it would be a surprise if this year's QBs can pull that off.
Advantage: Michigan State

RUSH DEFENSE vs. MSU RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #9 in rush defense (92 yards allowed/game) and #18 in yards allowed per carry (3.26). Those aren't bad numbers considering the terrible offense probably makes the defense get worn out and frustrated by the end of the game. Statistically, Michigan had its worst game of the year last week in allowing 187 yards to Illinois, but 36 of those yards came on a fake punt run by a tight end; otherwise, Michigan allowed 151 yards on 37 carries, which is a more respectable 4.1 yards allowed per carry. Illinois also took advantage of Michigan's pass rushing defensive tackles by running a couple draws, which slipped through for good-sized gains. We'll see if Michigan State can replicate that type of offensive approach, and I do have nightmares about some sprint draws run by MSU over the years. Michigan's leading tacklers are LB Ernest Hausmann (45), LB Jaishawn Barham (37), and S Makari Paige (31). Michigan State has generally struggled to run the ball, as they're ranked #90 (133.3 yards/game) and average 4.06 yards/carry, which is good enough for 82nd. Their two terrible games (less than 2.0 yards/carry) came against #1 Oregon and #4 Ohio State, though. Sixth year senior RB Kay'ron Lynch-Adams (5'10", 215), who started his career at Rutgers and then went to UMass, leads the team with 82 carries for 424 yards and 2 touchdowns. Redshirt junior RB Nate Carter (5'10", 202), a UConn transfer, is the backup with 67 carries for 294 yards and 2 touchdowns. Quarterback Aidan Chiles (6'3", 217) is a threat to run, too, with 56 carries for 166 yards and 3 scores. The center and left side of the line have graded out pretty well to PFF, but fifth year senior RG Brandon Baldwin (6'7", 323) and redshirt sophomore RT Ashton Lepo (6'7", 306) have been the weak spots in run blocking. Lynch-Adams has some speed and Carter isn't a bad back, but one key will be making sure Chiles doesn't hurt Michigan too badly with his feet.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. MSU PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #97 in pass defense (234.1 yards allowed/game) but #27 in yards allowed per attempt (6.3) and #56 in passing efficiency defense. Last week they got hit with several pass interference and holding penalties in the secondary, and All-American CB Will Johnson missed most of the week. It's unclear if Johnson will be back this weekend, but if he can go, it's an in-state rivalry game for a guy who grew up in Michigan, so I would think he would want to do his best to get on the field and make an impact. Michigan DE Josaiah Stewart is tied for #12 nationally (#2 in the Big Ten) with 5.5 sacks and the team is 30th with 2.57 sacks per game. Chiles can move and has a strong arm, but he has been erratic throwing the ball. There was a lot of chatter about Chiles in the off-season, but he's thrown 9 interceptions and just 6 touchdowns through seven games; he's completing just over 59% of his passes for 8.1 yards/attempt. He's particularly vulnerable on 3rd down, where he completes just 51.1% of his throws for 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. His top target is true freshman WR Nick Marsh (24 catches, 433 yards, 1 TD), who has big-play ability at 6'3", 209 lbs. Marsh had 8 catches for 194 yards and 1 touchdown against Maryland and then had 8 catches for 113 yards last week against Iowa, so he's shown up in some big games against league opponents. Fifth year senior WR Montorie Foster, Jr. (6'0", 186) has 27 catches for 374 yards and 2 touchdowns. Junior Oregon State transfer TE Jack Velling (6'5", 244) has 23 catches for 256 yards. They're #94 nationally in sacks allowed per game at 2.43. I think this is advantage Michigan if Johnson is available to play, but if not, I can see Marsh and Co. taking advantage of a short-handed secondary.
Advantage: Michigan State

ROSTER NOTES

• Michigan State players recruited by Michigan include: LB Aaron Alexander, LB Semaj Bridgeman, DT Ru'Quan Buckley, S Lejond Cavazos, OL Cole Dellinger, OL Dallas Fincher, WR Antonio Gates, Jr., DE Khris Bogle, WR Nick Marsh, LB Darius Snow, DT Alex Van Sumeren, TE Jack Velling
• Michigan State LB Semaj Bridgeman spent one season at Michigan in 2023
• Michigan State LB Aaron Alexander and DT Alex Van Sumeren were both committed to Michigan at one point
• Former Michigan recruit and Ann Arbor (MI) Pioneer product Antjuan Simmons, who played linebacker at MSU, is now a graduate assistant on defense for the Spartans
• Michigan has a long snapper named Jack Carson Wentz, who is no relation to NFL QB Carson Wentz

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .

• QB J.J. McCarthy completed 21/27 passes for 287 yards and 4 touchdowns
• TE A.J. Barner caught 8 passes for 99 yards and 1 touchdown
• TE Colston Loveland caught 4 passes for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns
• CB Mike Sainristil returned and interception 72 yards for a touchdown
• Michigan State didn't use hand signals because of "Sign-gate" and still lost 49-0

PREDICTION

• Michigan State 23, Michigan 14