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| Is this what we should expect from Derrick Green? |
2002
Rivals: Ciatrick Fason, Florida - In three seasons at Florida, Fason had 315 carries for 1,877 yards (6.0 yards/carry) and 14 touchdowns. Fason was drafted in the fourth round (#112 overall) by the Minnesota Vikings in 2005, for whom he played two seasons. He had 50 career carries for 161 yards (3.2 yards/carry) and 5 touchdowns.
2003
Rivals: Reggie Bush, USC - In three seasons at USC, Bush had 433 career carries for 3,169 yards (7.3 yards/carry) and 25 touchdowns, along with 95 career receptions for 1,301 yards and 13 touchdowns. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2005. He was the #2 overall pick by the New Orleans Saints in 2006. In five seasons with the Saints and two with the Miami Dolphins, he has 967 carries for 4,162 yards (4.3 yards/carry) and 29 touchdowns. He also has 372 receptions for 2,730 yards and 15 touchdowns.
2004
Rivals: Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma - In three seasons at Oklahoma, Peterson had 747 carries for 4,045 yards (5.4 yards/carry) and 41 touchdowns. Peterson was the #7 overall pick by the Vikings in 2007. In six seasons with the Vikings, he has 1,754 carries for 8,849 yards (5.0 yards/carry) and 76 touchdowns. He had the second-best season rushing total in NFL history this past season with 2,097 yards.
2005
Rivals: Jonathan Stewart, Oregon - In three seasons at Oregon, Stewart had 516 carries for 2,891 yards (5.6 yards/carry) and 27 touchdowns. Stewart was the #13 overall pick by the Carolina Panthers in 2008. In five seasons with the Panthers, he has 818 carries for 3,836 yards (4.7 yards/carry) and 27 touchdowns.
2006
Rivals: Chris Wells, Ohio State - In three seasons at Ohio State, Wells had 585 carries for 3,382 yards (5.8 yards/carry) and 30 touchdowns. Wells was the #31 overall pick by the Arizona Cardinals in 2009. In four seasons with the Cardinals, he has 625 carries for 2,471 yards (4.0 yards/carry) and 24 touchdowns.
2007
Rivals: Joe McKnight, USC - In three seasons at USC, McKnight had 347 carries for 2,213 yards (6.2 yards/carry) and 13 touchdowns. McKnight was drafted in the fourth round (#112 overall) by the New York Jets in 2010. In three seasons with the Jets, he has 112 carries for 502 yards (4.5 yards/carry) and 17 catches for 177 yards; he has also averaged 29.0 yards per kickoff return with 2 return touchdowns.
2008
Rivals: Darrell Scott, Colorado - Scott spend his freshman and sophomore seasons at Colorado before transferring to South Florida. Altogether, he had 263 carries for 1,252 yards (4.8 yards/carry) and 6 touchdowns. He was undrafted and has not played in the NFL.
2009
Rivals: Bryce Brown, Tennessee - Brown spent his freshman year at Tennessee before transferring to Kansas State; in his freshman and redshirt sophomore seasons, he totaled 104 carries for 476 yards (4.6 yards/carry) and 3 touchdowns. Brown was drafted in the seventh round (#229 overall) by the Philadelphia Eagles in 2012. As a rookie he had 115 carries for 564 yards (4.9 yards/carry) and 4 touchdowns.
2010
Rivals: Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina - In three seasons at South Carolina, Lattimore had 555 carries for 2,675 yards (4.8 yards/carry) and 38 touchdowns. He will skip his senior season to enter the 2013 NFL Draft.
2011
Rivals: Malcolm Brown, Texas - In two seasons at Texas, Brown has 233 carries for 1,066 yards (4.6 yards/carry) and 9 touchdowns.
2012
Rivals: Johnathan Gray, Texas - In one season at Texas, Gray has 149 carries for 701 yards (4.7 yards/carry) and 3 touchdowns.
CONCLUSION
Ignoring Gray and Malcolm Brown altogether, and removing Lattimore from NFL Draft consideration, here's the average production that we should expect from Rivals' top tailback:
College career length: 3 seasons
College rushing production: 429 carries for 2,442 yards (5.7 yards/carry) and 22 touchdowns
NFL Draft slot: 2nd round, #63 overall
Where would that career rank among former Michigan players? The 429 carries would put him at #22 in Michigan history, behind Rick Rogers and ahead of Chris Howard. The 2,442 yards would put him at #17, behind Ron Johnson and ahead of Ed Shuttlesworth. The 22 touchdowns would place him at #18, behind Lawrence Ricks/Tshimanga Biakabutuka and ahead of Brandon Minor. Of players with at least 100 career carries, that 5.7 yards/carry would tie him at #7 behind Jon Vaughn, Denard Robinson, Kerry Smith, Tyrone Wheatley, Biakabutuka, and Rob Lytle.
Based on Michigan's offensive system and Green's skill set, if you're looking for a comparison to another former #1 tailback, I think the best replica would be Ohio State's Chris "Beanie" Wells.
