Hyattsville (MD) DeMatha defensive back Tyler Green
2015 Team Ranking: #51
Cream of the 2015 Crop: Hyattsville (MD) DeMatha safety Tyler Green (#532 overall in the 247 Composite) is a one-time Ohio State Buckeye commit who decommitted in December. He ended up signing with the Hoosiers, and with Michigan struggling at safety, I had hoped that the Wolverines might throw their hat in the ring. Green is big at 6'3", 195 lbs. and might end up as a linebacker. Indiana also signed JUCO wide receiver Camion Patrick, the #53 junior college prospect, out of East Mississippi Community College.
2016 Team Ranking: N/A. The Hoosiers have yet to receive a commitment in the 2016 class.
Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Drake Johnson. Johnson had 16 carries for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns. His longest run was a 32-yard burst, and he had several runs that gained chunks of yards. A caveat applies due to the weak opponent, but he has more speed than De'Veon Smith, more power than Justice Hayes, and better vision than Smith or the currently injured Derrick Green. This likely will not be a flash-in-the-pan appearance for Johnson. While success will be harder to find, I would not be surprised if he's the starter next week at Northwestern.
Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . De'Veon Smith. Smith has had ample opportunities this season, playing in all nine games, getting the second-most carries on the team (77, compared to Derrick Green's 82), and not doing a great deal with those chances. Sure, he leads the team with 5 touchdowns, but he's a short-yardage and goal-line runner. Perhaps he should be leading the team in touchdowns even if everyone were healthy, because he's able to plow through linebackers and defensive backs for some extra yards. But Smith's vision isn't Mike Hart-like, which many fans said early in the season, and he's not quick enough through the holes that he sees. On a team that lacks big plays, your bell cow at running back shouldn't be a guy so ponderous.
Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Willie Henry. Henry got hurt against Michigan State last week, and I am not sold on his replacement, Chris Wormley. Wormley seems to be good for one or two good plays a game, but he's not consistent enough. Wormley's motor has always been a question mark for me, and I have yet to see him play a full game of good football.
Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Delano Hill. Hill was in on 3 tackles this past Saturday, but he was again missing tackles and getting out of position at free safety. He did have a nice blitz in the third quarter, but otherwise, I was not impressed. I don't know the answer, but Hill isn't it right now. He has been a liability the past two weeks, although the impact in this game was minimal because of the opponent.
Play of the game . . . Drake Johnson's 16-yard touchdown run to end Michigan's scoring. Johnson burst up the middle, juked a defender to the right, and then high-stepped through a tackle attempt before crossing the goal line. It was a fun ending and a welcome sight for a team that has lacked suddenness at the running back position. Honorable mention for this award goes to Amara Darboh for blowing through a solid tackle attempt on a quick screen. Not a ton of yardage, but fun to watch.
MVP of the game . . . Drake Johnson. He offered Michigan fans some excitement when there was very little else to get the heart pumping. De'Veon Smith wasn't getting the job done, and Justice Hayes is mediocre. Jake Ryan also had a very good game (11 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 2 forced fumbles), but the linebacker position hasn't been as concerning as the running backs.
Drake Johnson to the rescue. Thank goodness that Johnson appeared to rescue us from watching De'Veon Smith churn out somewhere between -2 and 2 yards. I have always been skeptical of Smith as a feature back. Indiana has a poor defense, and Smith managed just 21 yards on 7 carries before a minor ankle injury sidelined him. Smith is a short-yardage back and that's about it, so I wish Michigan would stop trying to use him as a feature back. In stepped Johnson, who ran for career highs with 16 carries, 122 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He showed good burst on several plays, and while the only truly impressive run was the 16-yard touchdown to cap his day, it was better than any other running back has looked this year, save perhaps Derrick Green.
Move De'Veon Smith to the bottom of the depth chart. Michigan has been struggling to get big plays all season, and Smith is not the guy who offers big-play potential. You can see that he is either coached to get upfield, or he just doesn't trust his speed - which he shouldn't, because he's slow. Smith is a between-the-tackles runner who isn't quick enough to get through the generally small cracks that the offensive line is opening up inside. If Michigan wants a more diverse attack - one that can attack both inside and outside - the coaches have to use Johnson and Justice Hayes more.
Devin Gardner played like Northwestern 2013. Gardner threw just one interception in this game, but it was an ugly one where he missed the free safety sitting in the middle of the field and tried to soft-toss a post into the arms of Devin Funchess. The ball never even came close. Gardner had several other throws that could have or should have been intercepted. He did enough to win the game, but if Indiana had capitalized on some of the mistakes, it could have been another ugly outcome. His mechanics are all over the place, and his decision-making has been questionable for a while. He has lost trust in his offensive line to keep him healthy, and he has lost trust in his body after being so beaten up. Gardner (22/29 for 220 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception) still looks gimpy after spraining his ankle three weeks ago, so he may not be fully healthy for the rest of the year.
Michigan needs safety help. Safety is a position that does require experience, in my opinion, so you can't rush success. However, I am deeply concerned about the safeties here in 2014 and going forward. Jarrod Wilson has been pretty solid as an in-the-box safety, but Michigan's free safety position continues to leak yardage. I thought Delano Hill's angles and tackling were once again lacking in this one. He has taken over for Jeremy Clark, who had some of the same issues. Other options include freshman Brandon Watson (who is redshirting), sophomore Dymonte Thomas (who is injured), and 2015 commit Tyree Kinnel. With Wilson graduating after next season, I don't know which one of those guys will step up, but those two spots have been big question marks for a good chunk of the past 15 years or so. You would think Michigan could develop a star safety at some point, even if just by accident. Any discussion of the best safeties in that time probably includes names like Thomas Gordon, Jordan Kovacs, Jamar Adams, and Ernest Shazor. That's a solid group, but nobody stands out.
Indiana is kind of just bad. I wanted to watch this game, see Michigan win, and come to the conclusion that the Wolverines just put it all together and demolished a decent team after realizing the error of their ways in a 35-11 loss to Michigan State. Unfortunately, that's not the case. The defense is pretty good, the special teams are mediocre, and the offense is bad. Indiana is essentially on its fourth-string quarterback (Nate Sudfeld and Chris Covington are injured; Tre Roberson transferred to an FCS school before the season) and played the fifth-string guy for a stretch in this one. The offensive line is decent, slot receiver Shane Wynn is pretty good, and running back Tevin Coleman is very good - when not fumbling the ball - but the rest of the team is bad. Glen Mason kept saying that Indiana's defense looks more aggressive, but it didn't add up to much. I think head coach Kevin Wilson is a great offensive mind, but he doesn't have much to work with.
It's fun to watch Jake Ryan. Ryan had 11 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and 2 forced fumbles in this one. He's as fun to watch as any Michigan linebacker in my memory. The guy is now up to 79 tackles (#5 in the conference) and 12.5 tackles for loss (tied for #2) on the year.
What does this mean going forward? Nothing. Michigan has a pretty good defense, no consistent offensive playmakers, and lots of injuries and issues to sort through. They need to win two of their last three against Northwestern, Maryland, and Ohio State to be bowl eligible. They have at least a good chance against the Wildcats and Terrapins, and I guess anything can happen against the Buckeyes. I still don't think Brady Hoke can save his job at this point, but it would be great to see him - and the program - save some dignity by earning bowl eligibility.
Rush Offense vs. Indiana Rush Defense
Michigan is #79 in rushing this season, but not for a lack of trying. They're #56 in rushing average (4.45 yards/carry) and #90 in rushing attempts (272 total). Not exactly what you would expect from a Michigan team. Aside from a fairly productive blip against Penn State, Michigan has not gained more than 83 yards rushing in its last four games, with 64 or fewer yards in the last two. The team's leading rusher is still Derrick Green, who has missed the past two games with a broken collarbone. Sophomore De'Veon Smith has amassed 33 carries in the last three games, but he has just 94 yards to show for it. Redshirt junior backup Justice Hayes has picked up some of the slack with 16 carries over the past two, but he has not been very effective either. Fifth year senior quarterback Devin Gardner is playing on an injured ankle behind a shoddy offensive line with a coach who doesn't like to run him very much, so don't expect much from Gardner on the ground. Indiana, meanwhile, is #74 against the run (169 yards/game) and tied for #78 in giving up 4.46 yards/carry, so they are below average but not terrible. The leading tackler is sophomore linebacker T.J. Simmons (6'0", 230 lbs.) with 43 tackles, while senior cornerback Tim Bennett (5'9", 185 lbs.) and sophomoe safety Antonio Allen (5'10", 205 lbs.) are close behind with 38 and 36, respectively. Nobody truly terrifying exists on the defensive line, but sophomore nose tackle Nate Hoff (6'2", 305 lbs.), senior defensive end Bobby Richardson (6'3", 286 lbs.), and redshirt sophomore backup nose tackle Ralph Green III (6'5", 325 lbs.) are the leaders in tackles for loss. In the last three games, Indiana has allowed 4.1+ yards/carry in each contest, including 330 yards on 6.5 yards/carry against Michigan State in their last outing. Michigan will not approximate those numbers, but I believe they will have a solid day running the ball. Advantage: Michigan
Devin Gardner passed for 503 yards and ran for 81, totaling 5 touchdowns.
Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Erik Magnuson. Magnuson started at right guard on Saturday afternoon, and things went fairly well (248 team rushing yards, 7 touchdowns). His body still needs some work, but he's suited just fine for guard if Michigan is going to run a lot of spread looks. The left guard spot still looks questionable, but I thought Magnuson looked solid for Michigan's "new look" offense.
Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Jeremy Jackson. Slot receiver Drew Dileo appeared to have been injured and spent much of the game on the sideline with a headset (why does a slot receiver need a headset?), and Jackson stepped in with 2 catches for 23 yards. I have never been a fan of Jackson, largely because of his lack of speed. Here's hoping that Dileo comes back for the next game, because he's a superior target who can run a little bit after the catch.
Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Jourdan Lewis. Lewis played as a backup cornerback yesterday and ended the day with 5 solo tackles. He was beaten on a long pass, but the coverage was almost perfect. He also nearly had a pick on a late throw by Tre Roberson, tipping it into the hands of safety Thomas Gordon. Michigan might need not need him for a few weeks, but Lewis could be valuable against up-tempo teams like Northwestern.
Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Channing Stribling. Cornerback Stribling started the game because Michigan spent almost the entire day with at least five defensive backs, moving Blake Countess into the slot. It looked like Stribling blew a coverage on Indiana slot receiver Shane Wynn's 5-yard touchdown catch, and Stribling also got out-muscled and out-techniqued by Kofi Hughes on a 67-yard touchdown. Instead of leaping with his fingers up to get the ball at its highest point, Stribling tried to cradle the ball into his chest - a high school-level technique issue - and allowed Hughes to come over the top for a catch. The coaches seem to like Stribling more than Lewis, perhaps because of the difference in size and strength; but Lewis seems to be more ready for the speed of the college game.
Play of the game . . . Jeremy Gallon's first 70-yard catch. In an unbalanced set, quarterback Devin Gardner ran a play fake to the left. As he turned around, Indiana's backside end came bearing down on him, forcing Gardner to sidearm the throwback to Gallon. Gallon caught it in stride, came inside his block, dodged a couple tacklers, and started racing downfield. Meanwhile, center Graham Glasgow was almost stride for stride with Gallon for about 40 yards before finally realizing that he's supposed to be slow. Safety Greg Heban eventually chased down Gallon on the right sideline, but it was a pretty play up to that point.
MVP of the game . . . Devin Gardner and Jeremy Gallon. I can't pick just one, so they share the trophy. Without Gallon, Gardner doesn't have a record-setting day. And without Gardner, Gallon doesn't have a record-setting day. Take away either one, and this likely would have gone down as a loss. Gardner had the second-best total yardage performance in Big Ten history (503 passing, 81 rushing), set a school record for passing yards, and totaled 5 touchdowns. Gallon had the best receiving yardage total in Big Ten history (369 yards) while catching 14 passes and scoring 2 touchdowns; he also had two 70-yard receptions in one game, similar to Roy Roundtree's 246-yard performance against Illinois in 2010 in which he had two 75-yarders.
Tight end Devin Funchess was the embodiment of Michigan's high-flying offense (image via MGoBlog)
Offense wins games. Defense is stupid. The total of 1,323 yards in this game was the most ever in a Michigan game. Michigan had a team record 751. Indiana only had 572, those slackers. Just imagine if Michigan were a hurry-up offense like Indiana instead of a team that huddles before every play.
Devin Gardner is the best Michigan quarterback ever! Gardner was 21/29 for 503 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also had 15 carries for 81 yards and 3 touchdowns. That total of 584 yards left him one yard short of the Big Ten record for total yardage, which is 585 and was set by Dave Wilson of Illinois back in 1980. Two of Gardner's completions went for 70 yards (to Jeremy Gallon both times), and if not for a couple failures to throw away the ball, Gardner basically played as well as anyone could ask. He had zero interceptions, although there was a fumbled snap between center Graham Glasgow and himself (the third week in a row in which that has happened).
Jeremy Gallon is the best Michigan receiver ever! Gallon had 14 catches for 369 yards and 2 touchdowns (along with 1 carry for -5 yards). That set a new Big Ten record for receiving yardage and rests second all-time behind Louisiana Tech's Troy Edwards and his 21 receptions for 405 yards and 3 touchdowns against Nebraska in 1998. The previous Big Ten yardage record (301) had been held by Purdue's Chris Daniels since 1999, and the previous Michigan record (246) was Roy Roundtree's since the triple-overtime game against Illinois in 2010. Former Michigan wide receiver Marquise Walker had 15 receptions twice (against Ohio State and Washington in 2001) to set the receptions record, so Gallon's school receptions mark is one less than Walker's; however, Walker had 160 and 159 yards in those games, respectively, so Gallon had a much more explosive day.
Kyle Bosch burned his redshirt and I don't really care. The coaches decided to switch things up again this week and start Joe Burzynski at left guard and redshirt freshman Erik Magnuson at right guard. That didn't last long, since Burzynski tweaked his knee early. But instead of calling redshirt freshman Kyle Kalis or redshirt sophomore Chris Bryant off the bench, Michigan went with true freshman Bosch. It was only Indiana - a smallish and bad defense - but I thought Bosch did pretty well. His size is college-ready, and I thought he was the most talented lineman in Michigan's 2013 class. Michigan only allowed sacks when Gardner held onto the ball too long, and Fitzgerald Toussaint ran 32 times for 151 yards and 4 touchdowns. It doesn't matter where the solution comes from, as long as the problem on the interior gets fixed. Some people were bothered about Bosch burning his redshirt halfway through the year, but if a true freshman plays half the year - especially when all other options have been exhausted - I don't see how anyone can have a problem with it.
Channing Stribling got torched again. I really don't care what Stribling does in practice. He's a true freshman and the game is moving too fast for him. Last week he got beaten twice on jump balls he should have been able to intercept or knock down, once by Brandon Felder and once by Allen Robinson; that resulted in a loss. This week he used poor technique again and got beaten for a 67-yard touchdown by Kofi Hughes. Instead of going up for the ball, Stribling tried to cradle the ball into his chest, which allowed Hughes to come over the top. Add that to several missed tackles, and I think Stribling needs to be demoted. He has a good future, but the speed of the game is one reason why most freshmen redshirt.
Hello, Thomas Gordon. Gordon had a weird stat line. It consists of the following: 2 interceptions returned for 41 yards. That's it. No tackles, no pass breakups. And those were his first two picks of the year. Opposing quarterbacks have been testing Michigan's cornerbacks more than the safeties this year, but I've been a little surprised that Gordon hasn't been more involved up to this point.
Good for Indiana. I have a soft spot for the underdog, and I somewhat hope that Indiana gets a few good years here. Obviously, I hope they lose to Michigan whenever the two meet. But as long as another team takes a dip to replace Indiana near the bottom of the conference, it would be nice to see the long-suffering Indiana fans have a little fun. They're 3-4 right now, but I think head coach Kevin Wilson has them going in the right direction. They've also been doing a good job on the recruiting trail. By the way, Michigan starting cornerback Raymon Taylor was once an Indiana commit.
What does this mean for Michigan? Well, Michigan might have earned some confidence offensively, which would be nice. I also suggested prior to this game that Michigan would go to more of a spread offense with Bryant and Kalis benched, and that appears to have been the case. Al Borges's play calling seemed to shy away from running power and zone stretch constantly and incorporated some more misdirection, draws, etc. out of the run game. Michigan can't expect to blow people off the ball, so this is what Michigan's offense should look like for the remainder of the year.
Rush Offense vs. Indiana Rush Defense
Michigan is #80 nationally in averaging 4.1 yards/carry altogether, but the top two running backs - Fitzgerald Toussaint and Derrick Green - are averaging 3.5 and 3.2 yards/carry, respectively. Quarterback Devin Gardner leads the team in rushing yards with 439 and is gaining 5.5 yards/carry, but he has taken a beating recently and is starting to look a little worn down. The same could be said for left tackle Taylor Lewan, who missed the second half of last week's game due to an undisclosed injury. The rest of the offensive line is/was in flux, too, with left guard Chris Bryant getting replaced by Joey Burzynski, Graham Glasgow learning to play center on the fly, right guard Kyle Kalis getting replaced temporarily by Burzynski, Michael Schofield flip-flopping across the line to fill in for Lewan, and Erik Magnuson stepping in at right tackle. Meanwhile, Indiana is #110 in the nation in rushing yardage allowed per game, giving up almost 217 yards weekly. The patchwork offensive line will face off against redshirt junior defensive end Ryan Phillis (6'3", 260 lbs.), sophomore defensive end Nick Mangieri (6'5", 260 lbs.), junior 3-tech Bobby Richardson (6'3", 281 lbs.), and sophomore nose tackle Alex Todd (6'3", 301 lbs.). Mangieri leads the team with 5.5 tackles for loss. Three of the top four tacklers are defensive backs, with redshirt junior linebacker David Cooper (6'1", 235 lbs.) tied for the team lead at 45 tackles. Advantage: Michigan
Pass Offense vs. Indiana Pass Defense
Michigan is #72 nationally in passing yards with 222.5 per game but ranks #45 in passer rating. Gardner is 86/146 for 1,276 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. Michigan's pass protection has generally been solid, but he has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long and/or lock onto receivers, which has resulted in too many turnovers. Wide receiver Jeremy Gallon is the team's leading receiver with 31 catches for 462 yards and 5 touchdowns, but tight end/U-back Devin Funchess has come on strong the past two weeks with 11 catches for 263 yards and 3 touchdowns. The other receivers have been uninspiring so far. Indiana gives up 240 yards/game through the air, good for #76 in the nation. Fifth year senior safety Greg Heban (6'1", 205 lbs.) has 2 picks, and three other guys have 1 each. Junior cornerback Tim Bennett (5'9", 175 lbs.) has 14 pass breakups and 1 of those interceptions, so I would expect Michigan to attack redshirt sophomore corner Michael Hunter (6'1", 190 lbs.). Redshirt junior defensive end John Laihinen (6'4", 255 lbs.) leads the team with 3.5 sacks, and the team has 12 total, good enough for 52nd nationally. Funchess will be a matchup problem for anyone, and Gallon should be tough to handle if used properly. If Michigan can run the ball a little bit and keep Gardner from getting happy feet, the Wolverines should be able to make some more big plays in the passing game. Advantage: Michigan
Rush Defense vs. Indiana Rush Offense
Michigan is #9 overall, giving up 89.5 yards/game on the ground; and they're #10 at 2.86 yards/carry allowed. They don't get a ton of penetration, but the linebackers diagnose plays quickly, the team swarms to the ball, and they're mostly sure tacklers. Middle linebacker Desmond Morgan and weakside linebacker James Ross III share the team lead with 42 tackles, and defensive end Frank Clark leads the team with 5 tackles for loss. Outside linebacker Jake Ryan returned to action last week, which could help out even more. Indiana is #64 with 173 yards/game and #49 with 4.7 yards/carry. Sophomore tailback Tevin Coleman (6'1", 205 lbs.) has 557 yards and 8 touchdowns, and fifth year backup Stephen Houston (6'0", 230 lbs.) averages 6.6 yards/carry. Sophomore starting quarterback Nate Sudfeld (6'5", 230 lbs.) is the throwing quarterback, while redshirt sophomore Tre Roberson (6'0", 200 lbs.) is the runner with 27 carries for 97 yards and 4 touchdowns. It might be tougher sledding this week with Indiana down to its third right guard and second right tackle, due to a few season-ending injuries. It's a fairly light crew up front with the five starters averaging 6'4" and 291 lbs. Sophomore left tackle Jason Spriggs (6'7", 297 lbs.) was All-Big Ten Honorable Mention last season. I expect Michigan to be able to do a solid job against the run because they almost always do, but they are going to get gashed at times due to the nature of Indiana's high-tempo offense. Advantage: Michigan
Pass Defense vs. Indiana Pass Offense
The Wolverines have been susceptible to the passing game this year, giving up a lot of short passes and an occasional deep ball. The Wolverines are tied for #64 nationally at 229.7 yards/game allowed through the air. However, they're holding opponents to a 52.6% completion percentage (18th overall) and a 109.98 rating (24th). The Wolverines have racked up 14 sacks (38th), and Clark has 4 in the last three games. Meanwhile, cornerback Blake Countess has 4 interceptions, and both cornerback Raymon Taylor and free safety Jarrod Wilson have 2 picks each; the Wolverines have 9 total (17th). The short completions have been frustrating, but the numbers suggest that Michigan is getting the job done. Both Sudfeld and Roberson complete approximately 60% of their passes, but Sudfeld has five times as many attempts. Combined, they have 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while throwing for 1,960 yards, and they've been taking just 1.5 sacks/game. They're #13 nationally with 331.5 yards/game through the air. The starters at wideout are junior Cody Latimer (6'3", 215 lbs.), senior Kofi Hughes (6'2", 217 lbs.), and junior Shane Wynn (5'7", 170 lbs.). Those three have combined for 75 receptions, 1202 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Fifth year senior Ted Bolser (6'6", 252 lbs.) is the top red zone target with 5 touchdowns while averaging 10.8 yards/reception. Even though Michigan has harassed teams into low completion percentages, I think they're going to have a tough time getting to the quarterback, and Michigan doesn't have enough talent at defensive backs to keep all of Sudfeld and Roberson's targets in front of them. The Hoosiers will probably put up a good deal of yardage and some points on the board, although it may not be enough to win. Advantage: Indiana
Roster Notes
Players who held scholarship offers from Michigan include DT Darius Latham and WR Shane Wynn.
Run game coordinator/offensive line coach Greg Frey coached the offensive line under Rich Rodriguez at Michigan from 2008-2010.
Assistant head coach/defensive coordinator/safeties coach Doug Mallory played at Michigan from 1984-1987. As a safety, he recorded 182 tackles and 6 interceptions for his career and was named team captain in 1987.
Native Michiganders on the roster include redshirt junior OT Bill Ivan (Charlevoix), freshman K Dong Kim (Okemos), junior OG Bernard Taylor (Detroit Dakota), and redshirt junior FB Matt Zakrzewski (Traverse City St. Francis).
Last Time They Played . . .
On October 2, 2010, Michigan beat Indiana in Bloomington by a score of 42-35.
Denard Robinson passed for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns; he also had 217 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. The last touchdown came with 17 seconds left on a 4-yard run to break the tie.
Roy Roundtree and Junior Hemingway combined for 8 catches, 255 yards, and 2 touchdowns.
Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell completed 45/64 passes for 480 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 pick.
Indiana WR Tandon Doss had 15 catches for 221 yards.
Then-free safety Cameron Gordon had 15 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 pass breakup, and an interception that he returned 19 yards.
Predictions
Michigan has a one-week aberration where it looks like they can run the ball. Toussaint goes for 100 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Al Borges ditches the unbalanced line after it lost its effectiveness against Penn State.
James Ross makes his first career interception, and Courtney Avery gets his first of the year.
Let's see more of this guy on offense . . . Darryl Stonum as a good kick returner. Seriously, what happened? Stonum set a Michigan record for kick return yardage last year. He has improved as a receiver this year, but the team is #102 in the country in kick returns this season. It's not all Stonum's fault - the blocking hasn't been there. But yeesh . . . as I said in yesterday's post, every unit on the team has been bad except the offense.
Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Tate Forcier and Denard Robinson as punters. It's not that Tate and Denard have done a bad job of punting. But the punter position was created for a reason. If you're allotting a scholarship for a punter, then use him. Saturday's "surprise" punt came from Tate when Michigan was sitting in its own territory on a 4th-and-1. Just send Hagerup out there and let him kick it. These "surprise" punts aren't surprising when the QB lines up 8 yards behind the ball for the shotgun snap and when you run it almost every week.
Let's see more of this guy on defense . . . Jibreel Black. He seemed to be getting a decent pass rush throughout the game, which is impressive for a freshman defensive end. I don't think he should be the starter because I think he's a liability against the run right now, but Indiana was a good matchup for him with their 64 pass attempts.
Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Jeremy Gallon as punt returner. Another game, another muffed punt. Luckily he recovered this one, but man, these punt return experiments just need to end. I don't understand why Michigan, with all its athleticism, can't find a good punt returner. Gallon has the running skills to be a good returner, but he doesn't judge punts or catch them well. Drew Dileo's redshirt has already been burned, and returning punts is his forte. Put Dileo back there, or someone else who can at least catch the ball consistently.
MVP of the Indiana game . . . Denard Robinson. Yet again. These really are video game numbers. He finished 10-for-16 for 277 yards and 3 touchdowns. He also carried the ball 19 times for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns. And just like the Notre Dame game, he led the game-winning touchdown drive and scored the go-ahead TD. How ridiculous is 27.7 yards per completion and 11.4 yards per carry? Pretty ridiculous.
You can close your eyes and pray all you want, #46, but you're not gonna catch him.
Yesterday's victory was at once entertaining, frustrating, and boring. The entertainment factor was apparent: Michigan put up 574 yards and 42 points on a Big Ten team, with quarterback and Heisman frontrunner Denard Robinson accounting for 494 of those yards. The frustration part was apparent, too: Michigan allowed 568 yards and 35 points to a perennial Big Ten cellar dweller, and Indiana held the ball for over 41 minutes.
The boring part was less obvious, but throughout the entire game, I knew Michigan was going to win this game. I've rarely been this confident during a contest, but I feel I've reached a near level of zen when it comes to watching this Michigan team. Michigan's offense will score loads of points as long as Denard Robinson is at the helm, and Michigan's defense sucks. I no longer hope for competence from Michigan's defense. They are overmatched and there's virtually no hope for them to improve this season. Sure, they'll make a timely sack once in awhile (Mike Martin) or flash some anticipation in the secondary that results in an interception (Cam Gordon). But ultimately, both defenses yesterday were atrocious and Michigan's offense is better. A 7-point margin is . . . just about right.
Some praise and a few gripes . . .
Denard Robinson is awesome. I feel like I say this in almost every post, but there's no getting around it. He is having one of the best statistical seasons in college football history and is currently on pace to run (2,353) and throw (2,621) for 2,000 yards and account for 39 touchdowns over a 13-game season. The easiest part of the schedule has passed, so I don't expect that Robinson will maintain his torrid pace. Regardless, the first five starts of his career must be on par with or better than every other quarterback in NCAA history.
Michigan's defense is bad. This was noted above, but there's no reason to expect significant improvement in the second half of the season. I heard Michigan's official motto is "Let's hope the other team drops the ball or something." After Saturday's game Michigan is ranked #120 (out of 120 teams) in pass defense, giving up 307.8 yards a game in the air. Michigan is also #88 in sacks, #88 in net punting, #99 in punt returns, #102 in total defense, and #104 in kickoff returns. Basically, Michigan is bad at everything that doesn't involve offense. And the Wolverines haven't even played the tough part of their schedule.
Michigan's goalline offense needs rethinking. Roy Roundtree caught a 74-yard pass that took the ball down to Indiana's 2-yard line. On first down, Michigan lined up in the I-formation and shot a BB at Indiana's defense in the form of 5'6", 180 lb. Vincent Smith. That didn't work. Then Michigan lined up in the I-formation again, and the center-quarterback exchange was promptly fumbled, providing Indiana the chance to drive 99 yards for a touchdown (on which Indiana capitalized). Rich Rodriguez has a 6'0", 211 lb. tailback (Michael Cox) and a 6'1", 227 lb. tailback (Stephen Hopkins) at his disposal. That personnel decision makes no sense whatsoever.
Vincent Smith had a good game. I don't think anyone has been more critical of Vincent Smith than I have. It's not that I dislike him or think he's a horrible player, but I just think there are better options. Against Indiana he had a 56-yard touchdown run on which he was nearly untouched. Altogether he had 9 carries for 80 yards and the touchdown. After five games, here's how Smith stacks up against the rest of the Big Ten's (and Notre Dame's) leading rushers, listed according to yards per carry:
For what it's worth, prior to this week Smith was averaging 3.9 yards per carry, which would have put him at #11. Against varying levels of competition, Michael Shaw (5.6 ypc) would be #4, Stephen Hopkins (4.7 ypc) would be #9, and Michael Cox (9.3 ypc) would be #1. So there is some statistical backing for my argument that Michigan's starting running back position needs to show some more productivity.
Indiana fans are tools. Unless something odd happened in the stadium that wasn't caught on camera, it sure seemed like the fans in Bloomington cheered when Denard Robinson fell to the ground injured. On the one hand, it's certainly a backhanded compliment, like "Hooray, we might have a chance to win this game if he sits out the rest of it!" On the other - and far more important - hand, it was a classless response from the Hoosier crowd. You don't cheer when someone gets hurt, period.
Junior Hemingway is slow but good, I guess. Hemingway caught a slant from Denard Robinson that he turned into a 70-yard touchdown. After he broke the cornerback's tackle and got up to full speed in the open field, I started wondering, "Did he pull a muscle?" Nope, that's just how Hemingway runs. It was reminiscent of Roy Roundtree's 76-yard catch against Illinois in 2009, on which Roundtree was run down by Terry Hawthorne. Luckily, Indiana's defense isn't very fast, either. Hemingway also made a clutch 42-yard reception near the end of regulation that set up Robinson's game-winning touchdown, and finished with 3 catches for 126 yards and 1 touchdown.
Jordan Kovacs must hate Darius Willis. Last year Darius Willis outran Kovacs (among others) for an 85-yard touchdown. This year Willis caught a pass in the flat, shook Kovacs on the sideline, and trotted in for a touchdown. Kovacs is normally a sure tackler, but I have to admit, the thing that ran through my mind was "If he can't tackle and he can't run fast, why is he out there?" That was just a fleeting thought, though, because Kovacs is probably one of the better tacklers on the team.
Roy Roundtree should get the #1 jersey next year. Prior to the season, I predicted that Roundtree would get 60 catches and 900 yards this year. Through five games, he's on pace for 65 catches and 876 yards, which is pretty darn close. If he continues in this vein, then I think he deserves to wear the #1 jersey in 2011. He's a likeable, hardworking kid, he's successful on both long and short passes, he's a willing blocker, and he has a knack for getting open. He might not be the physical freak that Michigan is used to seeing out of its #1 wide receivers (6'3", 215 lb. guys who can jump high and run really fast), but Michigan fans couldn't ask for much more out of him.
Taylor Lewan better learn quickly. We've been hearing for months that Lewan is a bit of a hothead. His emotions could have cost Michigan the game on Saturday, though. After Denard Robinson scored a touchdown to put Michigan up 41-35 with 17 seconds left in the game, Lewan was trying to get over to Robinson to celebrate. Supposedly an Indiana player on the ground tried to trip Lewan, which resulted in an altercation and a 15-yard penalty on Lewan. I don't care what an opponent tries to do - there's no good excuse for getting a 15-yard penalty when your team scores the potential game-winning touchdown. If he trips you, fall to the ground, get up, and go celebrate. What, you've never been tripped before? Were you afraid that he ruined your pretty maize pants? Suck it up, and think about the team first. And while you're at it, you might want to learn how to block without holding. On the game-winning drive, he should have been called for holding at least twice that I saw on television.
Michigan found a way to win. Regardless of what went down from the starting whistle to the final whistle, Michigan won the game. The offense was mostly awesome, and the defense did just enough to win. There are definitely some things to fix or tweak, but when it comes down to it, the Wolverines' record is 5-0. Go Blue!
Expect to see a lot of this: Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell picking
on Michigan's secondary.
Rush Offense vs. Indiana Rush Defense
Michigan is currently the #2 rushing offense in the country with 331.25 yards a game. Meanwhile, Indiana has been giving up 177 yards a game to the likes of Western Kentucky, Akron, and Towson to rank #92 in the nation. This is a bad matchup for the Hoosiers. Despite the return of starting middle linebacker Tyler Replogle, who missed last week's game with a concussion, the Wolverines should be able to have their way. Quarterback Denard Robinson is the leading rusher in the NCAA, and the only way Indiana should be able to stop him is by bruising his knee after a 30-yard run. One caveat, though - there's a strong possibility that running backs Fitzgerald Toussaint (shoulder; 2 carries for 66 yards and 1 TD last week) and Michael Shaw (knee; 44 carries, 256 yards, 5 TDs this year) will miss Saturday's game. That leaves sophomore Vincent Smith, redshirt sophomore Michael Cox, and freshman Stephen Hopkins to pick up the slack in the running back rotation. That shouldn't matter too much, although those two missing players are big-play threats for Michigan's offense. Advantage: Michigan
Pass Offense vs. Indiana Pass Defense
Michigan's quarterbacks have only been sacked once this year, and the likelihood of Indiana's front seven catching up to Denard Robinson is low. The Hoosiers have only mustered four sacks this season in those three games against feeble opponents. The biggest matchup problem here is 2010 Denard Robinson vs. 2009 Denard Robinson. If 2010 Denard Robinson keeps up his torrid pace and throws like the 16th most efficient QB in the country, then this should be a clear victory for the Wolverines once again. I haven't seen any evidence that Robinson will regress to 2009 form, but his performance so far this season seems too good to be true. He's bound to have a bad game at some point, but will it happen against Indiana? Well . . . probably not. Advantage: Michigan
Rush Defense vs. Indiana Rush Offense
The Wolverines have done a better job of limiting big runs in 2010. With eight men consistently in the box, Michigan's run defense hasn't been great (#53 in the country, 135.25 yards a game), but big plays have been rare. Hopefully that can remain true this week, too, because leading rusher Darius Willis (46 carries, 219 yards, 4.8 yards per carry, 2 TDs) had an 85-yard TD against Michigan in 2009, and wideout Tandon Doss had a 25-yard TD in last year's game, too. One of the most memorable images from the 2009 season was of Willis outrunning safety Jordan Kovacs and cornerback J.T. Floyd to the endzone. That was not a happy moment. The only guy who had a prayer of catching Willis from behind was safety Troy Woolfolk, who's currently healing from a broken ankle. Michigan's secondary is even a bit slower this year, as Floyd and Kovacs are back but Woolfolk's replacement is Cam Gordon, who gets outrun by 265 lb. tight ends and MAC wide receivers. Improved play from Michigan's linebackers - as well as the eight-man front - should be able to stall Willis a little better this year, but there will be some frustrating moments. Advantage: Indiana
Pass Defense vs. Indiana Pass Offense
This is what scares me. Bad opponents or not, Indiana averages 304 yards a game through the air (#11 in the country). Michigan played a couple patsies and Notre Dame, but ranks #105 in the country in pass defense (264 yards a game) and #55 in pass efficiency defense. Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell threw for 270 yards last year, and he's supported by some good-sized receivers with decent but not great speed. Free safety Cameron Gordon has been a liability in pass coverage, and I expect Indiana to test him repeatedly; the Hoosiers would be silly not to try. Michigan hasn't shown the ability to shut down a decent passing game, and I don't think this is the week that they'll step up. Michigan fans will just have to pony up and expect some big plays through the air. Advantage: Indiana
Final Predictions
Denard Robinson rushes for 150 yards and 2 touchdowns
Ben Chappell increases the team's passing average by throwing for 305 yards or more
Michigan finally gets a big play out of the return game
My preseason upset pick will be proven wrong because . . .
The interception that essentially ended Michigan's 36-33 victory over Indiana was strongly disputed. I have to admit that as I watched the play unfold in real time, I assumed Indiana would retain possession. But despite my initial reaction, the on-field call was "interception" and the replays proved to be inconclusive.
On the play, Michigan cornerback Donovan Warren jumped a slant pass from Indiana quarterback Ben Chappell to wide receiver Demarlo Belcher. Warren reached in front of Belcher with both hands while Belcher waited for the ball to come into his body. Without the ball ever touching the ground, both players fell to the turf and had a momentary tug of war. Possession was awarded to Warren.
The rule on simultaneous possession is as follows:
ARTICLE 8. A simultaneous catch or recovery is a catch or recovery in which there is joint possession of a live ball by opposing players inbounds (A.R. 7-3-6-II and III).
This rule is tricky because it doesn't define "possession." As you can see in the screencaps from Maize n Brew, it appears that Belcher never really had control of the ball. Even though both players fell together with the ball between them, that doesn't mean Belcher ever had possession. My interpretation of the word "possession" is controlling the ball with one's hand(s), and it doesn't seem that Belcher ever had that. The only visual evidence of possession, by that definition, shows that Warren had better control of the ball than Belcher.
As Indiana fans will argue, it doesn't matter who wins the tug of war at the bottom of the pile; when the possessor of the ball is down by rule, the play should be over. But if neither player possesses the ball at the time when the players hit the ground, it's impossible to say who should be awarded the ball. When you see a receiver on the ground who's bobbling the ball, he's not given possession until that ball is controlled without hitting the ground (see Mario Manningham's catch vs. the Cowboys last Sunday). Belcher never controlled the ball and when someone finally did control it, that someone was Warren.
Indiana fans will surely never let this die. As you can see from the Maize n Brew comments, they are bitter. Just like Penn State fans still complain about the :01 left on the clock in 2005 and Michigan fans still complain about MSU's last-"second" TD pass to T.J. Duckett in 2001, Indiana will probably hold on to Interceptiongate for a while.
But I don't care. The referees weren't impressive either way. They missed several holding calls against Indiana, and they called J.T. Floyd for pass interference on a ball that was clearly uncatchable. I don't think Warren's interception was necessarily a bad call, but I wouldn't have been surprised if it had gone the other way, either.
The bottom line is this: If you leave the game up to the referees, that's your fault. It was a tight game the entire way. Indiana settled for several field goals in the red zone when the Hoosiers offense bogged down. If they had scored a TD on any of those possessions, things might have ended differently.
I've been busy this week. Between losing power on Thursday evening, not getting home until after midnight last night, and Saturday morning practice, I didn't have a chance to write a preview for the Indiana game. But these are the games that always scare me the most. Not the Toledo or Eastern Michigan or Appalachian State games, because we win most of those and if we don't, well, that's just how the cookie crumbles.
No, what scare me are the games against second-rate Big Ten teams like Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State, etc. Those games are ones that shouldn't be huge impediments on the way to playing for a Big Ten title but too often rise up to bite you in the ass or at least make you nervous.
Today's game was no exception. Indiana made it tough on Michigan before the Wolverines eked one out in the last couple minutes.
Offensively, Michigan frustrated me more today than at any other time this year. They seemed completely out of sync for the majority of the game. Luckily, Carlos Brown scored two early touchdowns and Tate Forcier led two late TD drives in the fourth quarter. Between those points, though, Michigan looked discombobulated.
Replacement center David Moosman had troubles snapping the ball, and both Denard Robinson and Forcier had troubles handling it. Michigan has resurrected the freeze play, where the center snaps the ball when he sees someone jump offsides. It's supposed to earn Michigan five yards, which it did . . . once. But the freshman quarterbacks clearly aren't prepared to run it, and neither is Moosman, since he snapped the ball one time when Indiana defensive end Greg Middleton had already got back onside. In total, it lost yards for Michigan and could end up being a turnover if, for example, the snap on the Middleton play had bounced off Forcier's knee or facemask and ended up in the hands of a Hoosier.
The game always looks like it's going too fast for Denard Robinson. It's like I looked when I was little and watching my brother play Frogger; then my mom would call him to take the garbage out, I'd grab the joystick, adrenaline myself across the road, and then drown in the river. Robinson runs the ball well and has a limit of one good throw per game. He led one good drive today and made a nice throw on a seam route to Kevin Koger. After that play the coaches should have patted him on the dreadlocked head, said "Nice job," and handed him a baseball cap (until, of course, he was needed again once Forcier got hurt).
Offensive coordinator Calvin Magee went away from the running game for a while. I have no explanation for this. Carlos Brown started the game with a 61-yard TD on a screen pass, scored a 41-yard rushing TD on the next drive, and then became a bystander for a couple quarters. We can run the ball. Our co-starters at running back, Brown and Brandon Minor, had 23 carries for 123 yards. That's 5.3 yards per carry. But 23 carries is what ONE of those guys should have, not the combination of the two, especially when Forcier and Robinson combined for 21 rushes. The guys who earned scholarships for running the ball should run it, not the guys who earned scholarships for their throwing arms.
This is partly on Forcier as well. In my opinion, Forcier is horrible at running the read option. Even when the backside defensive end stays home to contain the quarterback, Forcier tries to make things happen on his own. He's simply not athletic enough to make it work. Hopefully his reads will improve as he gets more and more experience. I guess the coaches have to keep calling the play to keep the defense honest, but Forcier needs to realize that the best thing about that play is the element of surprise when he keeps the ball. If I were an opposing defensive coordinator, I would tell my defensive ends, "If you stay home, this chump is going to keep the ball a couple times when he shouldn't, and you better make him regret it."
Defensively, it really hurts to have so little depth and experience in the defensive backfield. I thought the linebackers played better than they did last week and the defensive line did an okay job, but our defensive backfield is in shambles. Donovan Warren made one poor tackle attempt, but the Indiana didn't want to test him much. Boubacar Cissoko was replaced early by J.T. Floyd, and neither played well. Meanwhile, strong safety Troy Woolfolk is a position-changer from cornerback who missed some tackles, and former walk-on Jordan Kovacs started at free safety and missed several assignments. Indiana took advantage of the inexperience on the back end, and you can bet that other Big Ten teams will, too. I think Michigan State will have an excellent day throwing the ball next week.
Offensive game ball goes to . . . Carlos Brown (2). He had 144 yards from scrimmage (83 rushing, 61 receiving) and two touchdowns. He ran the ball well most of the day, and what he lacks in toughness, he makes up for in home run ability.
Defensive game ball goes to . . . Jonas Mouton (1). Mouton led the team in tackles with 11 and had half a tackle for loss. He reacted slowly a couple times but he stepped up to fill a hole a couple times and made some nice hits. He didn't have a great game, but nobody really did.
Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . David Moosman (1). He can play guard. That's fine. He's a pretty good guard. In fact, with his main competition at center coming from redshirt freshman Rocko Khoury, he might well be our best center with starter David Molk out (broken foot). But I hope Molk is a quick healer. Moosman had a few bad snaps, and his quarterbacks didn't do a great job of bailing him out.
Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . J.T. Floyd (2). I think Cissoko re-injured his shoulder injury, but I have a hard time believing that freshmen Justin Turner and Teric Jones are significantly worse than Floyd. At this point, I have to believe the coaches are trying their best to preserve Turner's redshirt. Jones's has already been burned. But Floyd was responsible for at least three big plays today: 1) the missed pass break-up that ended in a big gain, 2) the 85-yard rush TD by Darius Willis in which Floyd made a poor attempt to tackle, and 3) the pass interference on the right sideline - the ball was uncatchable, but Floyd still had a hand full of jersey.
