Thursday, April 25, 2013

2013 Mock NFL Draft

Central Michigan offensive tackle Eric Fisher
I do this every year, even though pretty much every mock draft ever is terrible and full of failed prognostications.  By Friday morning this will be horrible and embarrassing, but right now, everyone thinks he's a genius, including yours truly.

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Eric Fisher - OT - Central Michigan
There aren't any skill players worth taking this high, and I think Joeckel is superior to Central Michigan's Eric Fisher. UPDATE: It appears that the Chiefs will take Fisher, so I'm changing my pick here.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Luke Joeckel - OT - Texas A&M
I thought about putting Ezekiel Ansah here, but the Jaguaras have whiffed on a couple first round defensive ends in recent years, so perhaps they'll be a little more cautious.

3. Oakland Raiders: Sharrif Floyd - DT - Florida
The ghost of Al Davis will cause the Raiders to pick Floyd. It seems like the Raiders have always liked gargantuan defensive tackles, and Floyd fits the mold.

4. Philadelphia Eagles: Lane Johnson - OT - Oklahoma
For Chip Kelly to get his offense rolling in Philly, I think he needs to strengthen the offensive line. People are going to get frustrated with him quickly if his offense sputters.

5. Detroit Lions: Ezekiel Ansah - DE - Brigham Young University
The sensible thing to do with the three offensive tackles gone would be to go for a cornerback, where the Lions are sorely lacking; they will probably mess it up and spend another high pick on a defensive lineman, kind of like Matt Millen did with the wide receiver position.

6. Cleveland Browns: Dee Milliner - CB - Alabama
Geno Smith is a possibility here, but taking Smith a year after taking Weeden would be a bad idea; I think they have some of the same strengths and come from similar offenses. Go with a physical corner instead.

7. Arizona Cardinals: Geno Smith - QB - West Virginia
This seems to be how things go: teams get an aging quarterback, then bring in a young gun to get tutored. Carson Palmer will feel the heat from Smith.

8. Buffalo Bills: Chance Warmack - OG - Alabama
The best thing to do in Buffalo is to shore up the run game.

9. New York Jets: Dion Jordan - OLB - Oregon
The Jets love to pick "front five" guys for their 3-4 defense.

10. Tennessee Titans: Tavon Austin - WR - West Virginia
Austin could be a nice complement to the run game they have in Tennessee.

11. San Diego Chargers: Jonathan Cooper - OG - North Carolina
The Chargers need help on the offensive line, and Cooper would be a decent pickup with the top three tackles off the board.

12. Miami Dolphins: D.J. Fluker - OT - Alabama
Fluker is a big, road-grading right tackle.

13. New York Jets: Tyler Eifert - TE - Notre Dame
Even Rex Ryan isn't dumb enough to take Cordarrelle Patterson this high and Austin is off the board, so they'll take a tight end to try to help out Mark Sanchez.

14. Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson - DT - Missouri
I really like Richardson and he would fit as a 3-tech DT.

15. New Orleans Saints: Barkevious Mingo - DE - LSU
The Saints go with the hometown pass rusher.

16. St. Louis Rams: Kenny Vaccaro - S - Texas
The Rams really need a safety, and he looks like the best one in the draft class.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jarvis Jones - OLB - Georgia
Perhaps Jones can be James Harrison's replacement.

18. Dallas Cowboys: Manti Te'o - LB - Notre Dame
Jerry Jones likes to make a splash, and taking Te'o here would definitely get people talking.

19. New York Giants: Bjoern Werner - DE - Florida State
The Giants have made a pretty nice habit of terrorizing opposing defenses with their versatile defensive line. I don't see many other guys who would make sense here, either.

20. Chicago Bears: Johnathan Cyprien - S - Florida International
I think an offensive lineman would be a good choice here, but there aren't any worth taking at #20, in my opinion.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Eddie Lacy - RB - Alabama
I have a hard time believing that no running backs will be taken in the first round, so I'll put Lacy here.

22. St. Louis Rams: DeAndre Hopkins - WR - Clemson
I almost put Cordarrelle Patterson here, but the Rams are a young team, and I think Patterson could get distracted or be distracting.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Sylvester Williams - DT - North Carolina
From Pat Williams to Kevin Williams to Sylvester Williams.

24. Indianapolis Colts: Xavier Rhodes - CB - Florida State
The Colts need a cornerback, and some people think Rhodes is the top corner in the Draft.

25. Minnesota Vikings: Cordarrelle Patterson - WR - Tennessee
Patterson might be able to help replace Percy Harvin, who was traded to the Seahawks.

26. Green Bay Packers: Desmond Trufant - CB - Washington
Trufant can help to replace Charles Woodson.

27. Houston Texans: Keenan Allen - WR - California
I'm not sold on Allen, but I think the Texans might like a wide receiver because their passing offense can become a little Andre Johnson-centric.

28. Denver Broncos: Eric Reid - S - LSU
Safety isn't a huge need for the Broncos, but Reid is a talented kid who's one of the best available this late in the first round.

29. New England Patriots: D.J. Hayden - CB - Houston
The Patriots need a wide receiver, but there aren't many great options here - Justin Hunter is a little bit soft, Terrance Williams is just okay, etc. They might as well try to shore up the pass defense.

30. Atlanta Falcons: Star Lotulelei - DT - Utah
I have a difficult time believing Lotulelei will fall this far, but he's more of a 4-3 defensive tackle, in my opinion, and there are a few teams who don't need him just ahead of the Falcons.  Maybe somebody will make a trade.

31. San Francisco 49ers: Matt Elam - S - Florida
Elam could help replace Dashon Goldson.

32. Baltimore Ravens: Alec Ogletree - LB - Georgia
Ogletree might drop a little bit due to some character issues, and Baltimore has lost quite a bit from its linebacker corps in recent years.  He could play the weakside inside linebacker position for the Ravens and help mitigate the loss of Ray Lewis.



  1. Where do you think Lewan would have gone in a real good class for tackles?

    1. Good question. I would put him up there with Joeckel and Fisher. Maybe #2 to the Jaguars.

  2. I know there is a lot of difficulty in scouting OL prospects, but how did someone like Fisher get passed up by Michigan and MSU? Kid was 6'7" and 270 coming out of HS, and I would think his athleticism would have been apparent then.

    1. I don't like the Freep, but Mick McCabe did a piece on Fisher. The kid was a late bloomer who didn't play offensive line until his senior year. Everyone missed on him, not just Michigan and MSU, but the recruiting sites and just about every non-MAC school. FWIW, McCabe says Fisher was never bigger than 238 lbs. in high school; not many 238-pounders are going to earn big-time scholarships to play OG and OT.

    2. Here's the link:

  3. Is Desmond Trufant really being projected as a first-rounder? I live in Seattle so I've seen him play quite a bit, and I don't know. He was very good as a freshman, but I don't feel as though he's really improved much since. Then again, UW hasn't been a very good defensive team overall, so he may look worse than he is due to a weak pass-rush and inconsistent safety play. Plus I've only been to a few UW games in person, and you don't always get to see CB play all that well on TV.

    1. He had a pretty good Combine, which I think helped him out significantly. He ran a 4.38, had a 3.85 shuttle, and had a 37.5" vertical.

  4. The Browns better take Milliner if he's there. We currently have 2 players filling 4 spots in the secondary, and I still think the jury is out on Tj Ward.

  5. Obviously there is a lack of Big Ten players in your first round mock draft. Which Big Ten player do you think has the best shot of getting picked in round 1?

    1. Johnathan Hankins seems to have the best shot. If a couple defensive tackles go earlier than expected (Loutulelei, Richardson, etc.), then someone might reach for him at the tail end of Round 1. I know Travis Frederick from Wisconsin is highly ranked at his position, but centers don't usually get picked very high. The next best guy is probably Montee Ball, but he's the second- or third-best running back, and it's even possible that zero running backs get picked in the first.

  6. Mock drafts aren't always bad at figuring out the approximate time at which a guy will drop, but they are worthless at predicting who's going to go exactly where once you get past the first few picks, because the first time you are wrong about a guy, it screws up your order.

  7. I fully understand we lost both VDB and Avril, but the Lions currently have 8 defensive linemen and only 6 Linebackers. Any chance they take a linebacker, or hybrid LB/DE?

    1. I don't think there are any linebackers worth taking that high, and the OLB/DEs are more geared for the 3-4 linebacker style.

    2. I'm wondering if we don't change to the 3-4, though. Our front looks very much like a 3-4 now since picking up Nwagbuo late last year, and CJ Mosely who started last year as a decent 3-4 NT, and has essentially played in that defense his whole career. They also signed DT/DE Jason Jones for more depth, and Gunther Cunningham changed KCs defensive front to a 3-4 and back previously. We'll find out in a minute, but I've been wondering all offseason how they'd replace both starting 4-3 DEs this year. Maybe they don't.

  8. Right on the money with the Lions pick. Figures, we have a top 5 pick and all the best tackles go before that.