Comparing the Recruiting Sites: Star Ratings for 2015 First Round NFL Draft Picks

Marcus Mariota

Questions often get raised about which recruiting site is the most accurate. There might be many ways to calculate, and some of them are beyond the scope of this here blog. But one way to analyze recruiting rankings is by looking at the star ratings of each first round draft pick, which I have done below. Each of the four recruiting sites was mined, although admittedly, 247 Sports is at a bit of a disadvantage since they are the newest site; fifth year seniors were not evaluated by 247 Sports coming out of high school.

1. Jameis Winston - QB - Florida State (Buccaneers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 4

2. Marcus Mariota - QB - Oregon (Titans)
ESPN: 2
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4

3. Dante Fowler, Jr. - OLB/DE - Florida (Jaguars)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

Hit the jump for the star ratings of the other 29 first-rounders.



4. Amari Cooper - WR - Alabama (Raiders)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

5. Brandon Scherff - OT - Iowa (Redskins)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Not ranked

6. Leonard Williams - DE - USC (Jets)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 4

7. Kevin White - WR - West Virginia (Bears)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: 3

8. Vic Beasley - OLB/DE - Clemson (Falcons)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

9. Ereck Flowers - OG - Miami (Giants)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

10. Todd Gurley - RB - Georgia (Rams)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

11. Trae Waynes - CB - Michigan State (Vikings)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 2

12. Danny Shelton - DT - Washington (Browns)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

13. Andrus Peat - OT - Stanford (Saints)
ESPN: 5
Rivals: 5
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

14. DeVante Parker - WR - Louisville (Dolphins)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 3

15. Melvin Gordon - RB - Wisconsin (Chargers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4

16. Kevin Johnson - CB - Wake Forest (Texans)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 2
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

17. Arik Armstead - DE - Oregon (49ers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 4
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

18. Marcus Peters - CB - Washington (Chiefs)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

19. Cameron Erving - C - Florida State (Browns)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

20. Nelson Agholor - WR - USC (Eagles)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

21. Cedric Ogbuehi - OT - Texas A&M (Bengals)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 4
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 4

22. Alvin "Bud" Dupree - DE - Kentucky (Steelers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

23. Shane Ray - DE - Missouri (Broncos)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 4
247 Sports: 3

24. D.J. Humphries - OT - Florida (Cardinals)
ESPN: 5
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

25. Shaq Thompson - LB - Washington (Panthers)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

26. Breshad Perriman - WR - Central Florida (Ravens)
ESPN: 2
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: 2

27. Byron Jones - CB - Connecticut (Cowboys)
ESPN: Unranked
Rivals: 2
Scout: 2
247 Sports: Unranked

28. Laken Tomlinson - OG - Duke (Lions)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: Unranked

29. Phillip Dorsett - WR - Miami (Colts)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 4

30. Damarious Randall - S - Arizona State (Packers)
ESPN: 3
Rivals: 3
Scout: 3
247 Sports: 3

31. Stephone Anthony - LB - Clemson (Saints)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

32. Malcolm Brown - DT - Texas (Patriots)
ESPN: 4
Rivals: 5
Scout: 5
247 Sports: 5

CONCLUSIONS
The average star rating of a first round pick for each recruiting site:

1. Scout: 3.65625
2. Rivals: 3.59375
3. ESPN: 3.3125
4. 247 Sports: 3.09375*

The average rating for 247 Sports is thrown off by so many unranked prospects. Six prospects were not ranked by 247 while they were still getting their feet under them. ESPN, Rivals, and Scout have no excuse since they have been around for a longer time period. Interestingly, if those six prospects are removed and you average the ratings of the other 26 players chosen, the average ranking jumps to 3.807, easily the highest of the four. That's not a fair comparison because they could have completely biffed on the other six prospects, but it's an indication that 247's ratings should be taken seriously. In my opinion - and not only because of this study - the 247 Sports site is surpassing its counterparts.

Another weakness is this type of study is the number of 5-star ratings given. Typically, Scout gives out 40+ of those ratings, whereas ESPN gives out only 10-20. Rivals and 247 Sports give out roughly enough to fill out the first round of an NFL draft (somewhere around 30). This gives Scout somewhat of an advantage in an analysis like this, and it gives ESPN a disadvantage.

Scout's biggest goof seems to be Melvin Gordon, who was a 4-star to two other sites and was going to Wisconsin. Any running back headed to Wisconsin has a good chance of being a mighty fine player, but the signs were there for Gordon and Scout missed them. However, Scout did label Leonard Williams a 5-star prospect when no one else did, and they also had DeVante Parker as a 4-star when others saw him as a 3-star.

Rivals did well to name Danny Shelton a 4-star (everyone else had him as a 3-star) and they were the only ones to give Nelson Agholor a 5-star rating (seriously, how did everyone else miss out on that?). Overall, Rivals seemed to be the most consistent with the fewest outliers.

For being such a large outlet, ESPN misses on too many players. Looking just at the top ten - the cream of the crop - they ranked Winston, Mariota, Fowler, and Flowers lower than any of their counterparts, aside from Winston's 4-star ranking to fledgling 247 Sports. They also failed to even evaluate Byron Jones.

Overall, what can we take away? The people running 247 Sports seem to know what they're doing, and it will be interesting to see the results as they get more experience, widen their net, and increase the sample size. Scout and Rivals both do a pretty good job and are pretty consistent without too many outliers. ESPN is consistently the least reliable source, both in up-to-date information and ability to evaluate players.

(On a side note, I probably spent more time on Scout's site than ever before while looking up these rankings. I must say that even though they revamped their site in the last year, that is still absolutely the least navigable site there is. I have never had a subscription to Scout and use it the least, and I cannot understand why anyone would tolerate paying money to deal with that. It boggles the mind to think that such a large website could have such terrible programming.)