RUSH OFFENSE vs. PURDUE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #5 in rushing offense (244.5 yards/game) and #5 in yards per carry (5.62). Unfortunately, running back Blake Corum - a Heisman candidate - is out for this week and possibly for the rest of the season. That leaves the injured Donovan Edwards, who has a cast on his right hand, as the likely lead back. Can Michigan get heroics out of him for a second week in a row after 22 carries, 216 yards, and 2 touchdowns against Ohio State last week? Otherwise, it's down to freshman C.J. Stokes and walk-on Isaiah Gash. The offensive line has been outstanding and is mostly back to full strength, with all five starters earning some form of all-conference accolades. Purdue is #38 in rushing defense (128.8 yards allowed/game) and #40 in yards allowed per carry (3.91). They had some good performances early in the year, but their run defense seems to have dropped off a little bit in recent weeks. The leading tackler is junior safety Sanoussi Kane (6'0", 205) with 63 stops, but linebacker Jalen Graham (6'3", 220) averages a team-leading 6 tackles per game in his eight contests. Graham and defensive end Kydran Jenkins (6'1", 270) lead the team with 4 tackles behind the line each in the run game. Michigan has leaned on other teams with success in the past, but doing it without Corum is a relatively new and unknown challenge.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. PURDUE PASS DEFENSE
The Wolverines are #91 in passing offense (214.6 yards/game), #31 in yards per attempt, and #28 in passing efficiency. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy had a bit of a breakout game last week with 263 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air, but he had the advantage of throwing to some wide open receivers due to Ohio State's focus on stopping the run. Wide receiver Cornelius Johnson (4 catches, 160 yards, 2 touchdowns last week) had the best game of his career, but Ronnie Bell (51 catches, 687 yards, 2 touchdowns this season) leads the team. Michigan is tied for #16 in sacks allowed per game (1.08). Purdue is tied at #47 in sacks per game (2.33) and they're led by 6'5", 275 lb. senior defensive end Jack Sullivan with 5.5. Backup end Khordae Sydnor (6'4", 265) is second on the team with 4.5 and Jenkins is third with 4.0. Purdue is #20 in interceptions with 1.08 forced per game; three players (safety Cam Allen, safety Chris Jefferson, and cornerback Cory Trice) have multiple interceptions and all three have scored on a return. Overall, Purdue is #59 in pass defense (218.3 yards allowed/game) and #65 in passer rating defense, so they're middle-of-the-pack. They have generally struggled against decent passing offenses.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. PURDUE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #3 in run defense (84.8 yards allowed/game) and tied at #4 in yards allowed per carry (2.97). They have allowed just 6 rushing touchdowns all season. Inside linebackers Junior Colson and Michael Barrett lead the team with 80 and 57 tackles, respectively, while nickel corner Mike Sainristil and defensive end Kris Jenkins, Jr. are tied at #3 with 48 tackles. It's unclear whether the Big Ten's Defensive Lineman of the Year, Mike Morris, will be any closer to full strength this week. Purdue is #97 in rushing offense (125.8 yards/game) and #85 in yards per carry (3.84). Freshman Devin Mockobee (6'0", 195) leads the team with 165 carries for 849 yards and 8 touchdowns on 5.2 yards/carry, but he's more steady than explosive; all the backups average fewer than 4.0 yards/carry. Quarterback Aidan O'Connell (6'3", 210) has totaled -47 yards on the season, so he's not a threat. Running the ball is going to be tough sledding for the Boilermakers.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. PURDUE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #11 in passing defense (177.3 yards allowed/game) even after giving up 349 yards through the air against Ohio State last week. They're #3 in yards allowed per attempt (5.6) and are one of just ten teams that have registered more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed. Michigan's corners held up relatively well against Ohio State's wide receivers, but where OSU found most of their yards was across the middle against linebackers and safeties. Michigan is #29 in sacks per game (2.67), but again, Morris is the leading sacker with 7.5 and does not appear to be back to full strength. Purdue is #44 in sacks allowed per game (1.67). O'Connell is a dangerous quarterback and perhaps the second best pure passer in the conference behind OSU's C.J. Stroud. Purdue is #21 in passing offense (280.7 yards/game) and #71 in passing efficiency. O'Connell completes 63.7% of his passes and has 22 touchdowns to 11 interceptions; he has had more explosive targets in past seasons, so his production is down. Leading receiver Charlie Jones (6'0", 188) is an Iowa transfer who has a league-leading 97 catches for 1,199 yards and 12 touchdowns. Tight end Payne Durham (6'5", 255) has a respectable 54 catches for 550 yards and 8 touchdowns, and five other players have 15+ receptions.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Purdue players offered by Michigan include: DT Cole Brevard, DE Yanni Karlaftis
- Purdue players from the state of Michigan include: WR Deion Burks (Belleville), LB Jalen Graham (Detroit Cass Tech), OL Spencer Holstege (Grand Rapids Christian), WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Walled Lake Western)
- Purdue RB Zac Tuinei is the son of former NFL offensive lineman Mark Tuinei
- Purdue OL Andre Oben is the son of former NFL offensive lineman Roman Oben
- Former Michigan defensive coordinator Ron English is the Co-Defensive Coordinator and Secondary Coach for Purdue
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On September 23, 2017, Michigan beat Purdue by a score of 28-10
- Quarterback Wilton Speight was knocked out of the game with a broken back
- Backup quarterback John O'Korn stepped in to complete 18/26 passes for 270 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception
- Running back Chris Evans ran 14 times for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns
- Defensive end Chase Winovich made 8 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks
PREDICTION
- Michigan 38, Purdue 17
Two observations:
ReplyDelete- outside The Game in 2018 & 19, that DBrown defense was really fun to watch!
- I'd love to see JJ in playaction, bootleg, with a drag route picked off for him ... our already stellar TEs could flourish. Plus, his legs would stress the opposing D ... need to see that (and variations of) more often ... UGa makes Stetson look elite with similar concepts
I have 34-17, and a less than exciting 3.5hrs (think Nebraska, three weeks ago)
Things I'd like to see
ReplyDelete-Some fun stuff from Weiss and Moore. They've were pretty creative last year against Iowa.
-No injuries, and proactive steps taken to encourage that.
- CJ Stokes get 15+ carries behind our OL to get comfortable as RB2. He has the skills just needs the reps.
- Schoonmacher healthy (or getting there)
- Backup DL snaps. We know what we have with Smith/Jenkins/Morris - let the other guys get work in.
Yep. We need to accelerate the development of stokes ... get him many carries, and then invest some Bowl prep on him
Deletehaha. Guess not! Looks like RB2 is going to be Mullings. JAG but I'm glad he'll get the next 4 weeks to keep getting reps.
DeleteIt doesn't say good things about Stokes that the coaches didn't trust him to touch the ball yesterday. I think the portal is going to be a factor in the offseason.
my guess is either:
Delete- he fumbled in practice
- he's got a boo-boo
- the ohio game showed he just isn't ready for primetime
- perhaps a combination of sorts
If it's the former two, the portal isn't as much a concern
Yeah I agree it could be any of those or a combo.
DeleteI think the coaches will want another proven do-it-all back to complement Edwards and I don't think Stokes has instilled enough confidence to keep them from exploring.
I think we're learning Portal decisions aren't always rational. Frankie Collins left Michigan when they recruited a guy who was going to play beside him (and likely would have been a backup to him). Cade McNamara went to the most game-manager university around to disprove that he was a game-manager. Shrug.
I wasn't trying to imply Stokes would leave but that the coaches would probably bring someone else in. This is something others have speculated on before but I was under the assumption that Stokes would ascend to RB2 and I have been disabused of this notion. Maybe it will still happen but I would guess it would be a competition/earned thing and not something he is handed based on his performance on the field (in contrast with Corum and Edwards).
Doesn't this mean that RBs matter? I mean, the coaches have 4 scholarship guys now and more in the 2023 class coming ... they also trusted Gash with meaningful carries during an undefeated season ...
DeleteWhy would they feel they need another?
B1G Champs 🏆🏆
ReplyDeleteIts great to be!
Delete