RUSH OFFENSE vs. NEBRASKA RUSH DEFENSE
Mighty Michigan is #50 in rushing offense (167.75 yards/game) but tied at #32 in yards per carry (4.97). The numbers aren't atrocious, but they're not where we expected them to be, either. With three starters returning up front and a couple solid transfers incoming, we wanted to see more. There has been some shuffling with La'Darius Henderson, Karsen Barnhart, and Myles Hinton going in and out of the lineup at tackle. Blake Corum has 351 yards and 8 touchdowns on 6.05 yards/carry so far, but backup Donovan Edwards is off to a slow start with just 3.3 yards/carry and no touchdowns so far this year. Meanwhile, Nebraska has the #2 rushing defense (46.3 yards allowed/game) and is allowing 1.83 yards/carry, which is also #2. They have adopted a 3-3-5 defense under new head coach Matt Rhule, and that 3-3-5 gave Michigan some issues last year when TCU ran it. Junior safety Isaac Gifford (6'1", 205 lbs.) leads the team with 23 tackles, followed by senior safety Omar Brown (6'1", 200) with 22 and junior linebacker John Bullock (6'0", 220) with 22 also. Those rushing defense numbers are even more impressive when considering that the Cornhuskers are pretty average in tackles for loss (#55 overall), led by junior nose tackle Nash Hutmacher (6'4", 330) with 3.5 TFLs so far. The Huskers have been consistent this year, not allowing any team to average more than 2.19 yards/carry in any game this year. I think Michigan is going to have some tough sledding on the ground.
Advantage: Nebraska
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. NEBRASKA PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #70 in passing offense (237.5 yards/game) but #14 in yards per attempt (10.2) and #11 in passer rating. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is #1 nationally in completion percentage at 79.8%, and if not for an ugly game against BGSU in week three, the hype for him would be at a fever pitch. Wideout Roman Wilson is one of five receivers nationally to have 6 touchdowns, which puts him on a current pace for 18 scores in the regular season. He's #63 in yards per catch (17.87) and teammate Cornelius Johnson (17.23) is not far behind. Tight end Colston Loveland (14 catches, 168 yards) and Edwards (11 catches, 100 yards) are also frequent targets. The team is tied for #8 in sacks allowed with just 0.75 allowed per game. Nebraska is #103 in pass defense (251.8 yards allowed/game) but a respectable #42 in passing efficiency defense. They're tied for 69th in interceptions (3), but they put good pressure on the quarterback as they rank #12 in sacks (3.5 per game). Four players have notched at least 2 sacks, led by senior linebacker Luke Reimer (6'1", 225). Considering Michigan's ability to run and Nebraska's ability to stop it, it would seem like a heavy dose of play action passes may be in order.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. NEBRASKA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #13 in rushing defense, giving up 80 yards/game. They give up 2.76 yards/carry, which is good for #19 nationally. Straight-up running has not been much of an issue against them, but when teams are throwing the ball when trying to catch up from large deficits, some quarterback runs or draws can be effective. That might be especially important in this one, as both Nebraska quarterbacks are decent-to-good runners. Michigan is led in tackles by LB Junior Colson (21), LB Michael Barrett (17), and LB Ernest Hausmann (14). The Wolverines have taken a little hit with the absence of DT Mason Graham, who is out for a few weeks with a hand injury. Nebraska is also hurting in the running game, because two of their top running backs (Rahmir Johnson and Gabe Ervin) are out for the year and starting QB Jeff Sims has been dinged up. Fill-in QB Heinrich Haarbarg (6'5", 215) is 40 carries for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns over the past week. Senior RB Anthony Grant (5'11", 210) is second on the team with 38 carries for 208 yards and 2 scores. Nebraska likes to collect ginormous offensive tackles, so 6'9", 315 lb. Bryce Benhart will line up at right tackle. He's probably their best lineman, but everyone up front is between 305-315. Haarbarg has impressive athleticism for a walk-on, so if Michigan isn't disciplined, he could create a big play or two.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. NEBRASKA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #7 in passing defense (151 yards allowed/game) and #21 in passing efficiency allowed, despite having allowed just 1 touchdown and notching 4 interceptions so far. The most recent interception was a 71-yard TD return by Mike Sainristil on a screen last week. The Wolverines have been the victims of a couple chuck-it-and-pray successes by other teams where good coverage has been negated by lucky bounces/amazing plays, but I suppose that happens to every team once in a while. Last week it seemed Michigan was willing to allow short completions, knowing that Rutgers's skill guys were unlikely to turn short catches into big plays . . . unless, I dunno, one guy falls down and the safety playing for the first time all year flails wildly in his first live action. Michigan is tied for #60 in sacks, which is meh. Nebraska is tied at #74 for sacks allowed (2.25 per game). Meanwhile, they're #129 in passing offense (124.5 yards/game), #116 in yards per attempt (6.0), and #110 in passer rating. Haarbarg (51.1% completions, 4 TD, 0 INT) is a one-read-and-run type of guy, while Sims (58.8%, 1 TD, 4 INT) is a more experienced passer, but one who doesn't mind throwing it to the other team. The Cornhuskers' leading receiver is Billy Kemp IV (5'9" ,180), who has just 13 catches for 132 yards and 1 touchdown this year. The biggest matchup issue might be junior TE Thomas Fidone II (6'6", 250), who has 7 catches for 84 yards and 3 scores, but he had just 1 catch last week in this offense, which isn't great at getting the ball to the perimeter or downfield.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Players from the state of Michigan include: DT Ru'Quan Buckley (Wyoming Godwin Heights) and LS Camden Witucki (Grand Blanc)
- Nebraska players who were recruited by Michigan include WR Demitrius Bell, OT Bryce Benhart, CB Dwight Bootle II, DT Ru'Quan Buckley, WR Malachi Coleman, TE Thomas Fidone II, TE Arik Gilbert, DT Elijah Jeudy, RB Rahmir Johnson, OT Teddy Prochazka, LB M.J. Sherman, S Rahmir Stewart, WR Marcus Washington
- Nebraska DT Riley Van Poppel is the son of former MLB pitcher Todd Van Poppel
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- On November 12, 2022, Michigan beat Nebraska by a score of 34-3. Michigan holds a 5-4 overall record against the Cornhuskers.
- J.J. McCarthy went 8/17 for 129 yards and 2 TD
- Blake Corum ran 28 times for 162 yards and 1 TD
- C.J. Stokes ran 8 times for 68 yards
- Michigan held Nebraska RB Anthony Grant to 11 carries for 22 yards
PREDICTION
- Michigan 34, Nebraska 10
It's first game on the road and Nebraska could give us different looks from QB. They'll be hungry for a marquee upset, so Rhule will take chances.
ReplyDeleteBut I don't think they have the horses. Nebraska rush D has shut down Minnesota pretty well (not who they used to be), but Colorado had plenty of success (the rush stats are marred by 8 sacks that are attributable to the pass game and Colorado's woeful protection).
Rush O is 32nd in the country while working on new plays in what amounts to glorified practices. Plus shuffling around OL personnel. I am not worried. Hutmacher has not seen anything like Zinter/Keegan/Nugent.
Prediction: Michigan RBs run for over 5 ypc again, tomorrow. With better balance I doubt they top 250 yards like last year but 200 is a safe bet IMO.
I'm more worried about the Nebraska pass D to be honest - the 3-3-5 will be able to come with blitzes from different angles and Michigan doesn't see it all that often. With Hinton's shaky start to the season there might be some pressure being applied. JJ has a track record of eating up the cupcakes, but has looked mortal and mistake-prone when pressured.
This might be a game where we let our ground game re-establish itself and we go away from Harbaugh's desired balance to a Rodriguezian/MacNamerian run-run-run mentality.
Top 10 run game, Top 15 pass game, Top 10 offense, Top 10 defense. We are too good for rebuilding Nebraska.
Prediction 31.8 - 5.7
(more of the same)
24-7
ReplyDeleteSlow. Boring. Survive & onward
Gotta love it. Nebraska wants to take away our run, and JJ shows out. How many WRs made plays? Wilson(!), CoJo, even Clemons
ReplyDeleteI guess Lank's point was proven a little bit: give Edwards enough carries and eventually he'll have his most productive day of the season
See prediction above. Run game looked strong against a statistically strong rush D (that was fake news but still) - nearly 250 yards with the backs going over 5 ypc. Nothing to worry about, but we'll fret and overanalyze the backs anyway.
DeleteWho are you arguing with. I said you were kinda right. Even though Edwards numbers were worst of the runners, it was still kinda his most productive game. According to JH, they were trying to get him going. Progress
DeleteI still think there are much more creative ways to get him the ball. We could be talking about Edwards like Wilson(!)
Maybe that's enough coffee for today? LOL. I'm not starting an argument. Seems like you want to rehash the Edwards one. As usual, your accusations are projections.
DeleteI'm pointing out that my prediction above was correct. It boils down to not being worried about the run game in any way. It was not about Edwards but since he is RB2 he's included.
If you want to keep arguing about Edwards go ahead. My view is unchanged. He's good, our OL is good, the run game is good. If you want to keep treating Edwards like he's special needs - have fun with that. I'll look forward to whatever fake narrative comes in a few weeks. Maybe it's "knocking the rust off" or maybe it's "working on his balance" LOL.
Even after I say you're kinda right (twice) you get offended
DeleteEvery time! LOL
DeleteAny update on the Huskers have the advantage vs Michigan's run game?
ReplyDeleteAnother paving. And, it looks like the OL might be coming around and jelling. I think UM will pave every team they play unless the opponent goes cover zero and sells out to stop the run.
Next up, Minnesota. Yawn. Wake me up when November rolls around.
Henderson is definitely an upgrade. Interior line looks nasty ... again
DeleteStill interested to see if Rutgers or Maryland is the 3rd best team we face. Inconclusive so far. If nothing else Maryland pass offense will be a test. I would love that game to be sooner.
DeleteOctober won't tell us much more. Purdue looks like the best team. Their D maybe will be starting to piece together some year zero things by the time we face them, but not up to beating us. MSU's one thing they aren't bad at is run defense, but they stink otherwise. Indiana and Minnesota are disaster zones.
But yeah, otherwise it's all a wait till the two games that mean something.
PSU's D is looking like it will be a tough test for us. Their OL looks like a weak spot though.
I like Maryland at the end. They're notoriously thin on depth (lol), and soften by the end of the year
DeleteMaryland tends to expose some holes in our pass D. Wish we had more than 6 days to work on those things before OSU.
DeleteMy mentality is that getting challenged makes you better. I'd rather see Maryland when they are at their best.
Some people have a mindset that avoiding tough competition is good for you. This isn't a Milton vs McNamara commentary. But it could be...
Haha, yes ... "I" have lived a life void of challenge. "I" avoid competition
DeleteAh, the life of a keyboard warrior
Like our former president, every accusation and insult is a projection.
DeleteNot sure what that means
DeleteAnd, when did I say we should avoid competition? Maryland lacks depth. Maryland limps into November, almost every year. That's an accurate statement, but someone wants attention...
"someone wants attention"
Delete"keyboard warrior"
Every accusation is projection.
Yeah, the guy afraid of competition just ran the Urban Cow Half Marathon, plays in Rec Basketball, and drops in on MMA gyms ... wrong guy Lank
DeleteLOL. You really think you're flexing here by going to a gym and playing rec basketball? You're telling on yourself again.
DeleteI'm just going to drop this. Good for you for staying fit. Not everybody does that.
That's not flexing. You said I'm afraid of competition. Probably bait to keep the conversation going, but it's ridiculous anyway. I'm almost as active as I was as a young man, and still seek competition
DeleteJust a statement. Not meant to offend
Is this where I'm supposed to comment about double posting being indicative of emotional responses?
DeleteI didn't say you're afraid of competition JE. Talk about sensitivity and getting offended.
As I said, some people, including you it seems, see the easier path as the better path. This came up with Milton's transfer destination, and it comes up with your comment about facing Maryland, and it comes up with your value of getting live snaps against cupcakes and backups. So that's a consistent mentality that I've observed.
It's not uncommon either. Many people are afraid to fail. Failing sucks. So some people avoid that risk and seek the easier road. And they believe that's the better approach.
A bully needs someone to dominate. Bullies don't seek out a battle with somebody their own size or else they lose their identity as a bully. They seek out a lesser opponent so they can be who they are. They avoid competition even if they don't acknowledge it.
Some small town guys never adjust and want to be the big fish in the small pond. Some people prefer to be a bigger fish even if they are in a much bigger pond and have to live amongst bigger fish than them.
It's just a different mindset. Not wrong or right, I suppose, just different. I guess that's a form of competitiveness. One might hate to lose so much that they avoid situations that could result in them losing. Your definition of how you see yourself as a competitive person may not align with what I see as a competitive person. That's OK.
My mentality is that challenge is good. I learn more through mistakes and failures than I do wins. Being challenged makes me better. Being better is good. Being challenged is good. Put yourself around good people who are good at what they do - not just those on your side but those on the other side. It'll elevate you. I want to leverage my own strengths but 'm not trying to take the easy road. That's my view.
You do you JE but most grown ups don't view competition through a lens of things like rec basketball or going to the gym. You aren't proving your point about being competitive to me because I don't consider that setting to be meaningful competition. I played rec basketball for many many years, I run charity races, I go to the gym. All of that is fun and healthy and competitive and I'd rather win than not but not since my teens would I have put any of these athletic endeavors in the top 5 list of things I am putting my competitive energy into. They are good fun, just like playing chess or Monopoly. It's all competition but it's also ultimately diversion. If you put your competitive juices into things that most people don't consider important - that might be telling. Every rec gym has the guy who is there too much and takes it too seriously. Sometimes you let him have it, sometimes you get annoyed and don't - that often won't end well, but I digress. It's also like the guy who has to outdo his neighbors with halloween decorations - that's competitive too. But it also might be telling.
To each his own though. I mean that. No offense intended - I'm trying to explain it to you. I've learned these last few years that people find happiness in different ways.
As a Michigan fan I would really like to see them play someone better - not just because it's entertaining, but because I think it would have them better prepared for OSU or their playoff opponent. There might be an increased risk of having a loss or two going into those games. That's a risk worth taking, in my view. Better to be challenged and get better than not.
DeleteThat's why I'll never in 100 years agree with you that Joe Milton would have been better off bullying lesser athletes in D3. He went to the best conference in football to one of the best programs around and yeah it wasn't easy for him and yeah he took some Ls along the way but he also bet on himself, competed, stayed true to himself, got better and experienced success beyond a vast majority of SEC or Big Ten starting QBs ever will. I wish he would have stayed at Michigan but we have a substantially better QB now and he landed in a good spot for him as well. So it's a win-win.
It does not seem like Joe Milton is the QB that his arm strength would have him potentially capable of being. So what. I admire who he is and what he's done at Tennesse. I admire how he's bounced back. I can't say that about Cade, not with how he has acted, how he has treated others, and how he approaches competition.
But maybe you are right - maybe beating up on lesser folks would have been good for Milton and made him a better player and a happier individual. I can't say for sure one way or the other. I just don't think that's the way things are or should be.
Michigan has a decisive edge in every category against all teams on the schedule including OSU and PSU, except maybe OSU passing v UM pass defense. If Harrell and McGregor can continue to improve then that goes away. ND shut them down. We are better.
ReplyDeleteHusker run defense vs UM run offense ,adv UN, LOL. We could have put up 350 yards rushing if we so desired.
There are variances in performances week to week, PSU/OSU are not given wins. I would go 70/30 PSU and 60/40. The rest of those jabrodies I go 95/5 UM winning. Statistically that is only about 28% chance we win out. but I think UM will run the schedule,
math says one loss.
I say undefeated.
Harrell looks better rushing the passer but I'm not sure McGregor does. OSU's passing game is still a massive advantage for them.
DeleteI believe in the math but with each week the chance of being undefeated going into OSU increases.
Only IF McCord gets a lot better. ND held them to 10 points (they got the last 7 on coaching malpractice) and it took coaching malpractice to give that game away. And Duke returned the coaching malpractice last night to even it up.
DeleteJohnson can deal with Harrison. The #2 WR vs our #2 CB, our guy will need some help.
But if McCord is on his back it will not make any difference.
McCord was effective in a Jake Rudock sense but that's certainly not up to the standards of his predecessors at OSU. Seems like OSU wants to work on the run game for their trip up to Michigan.
DeleteI'm not yet that confident we'll be able to get after McCord in the pocket.
We may try to bracket whoever Johnson isn't covering. If it is Harrison vs Johnson one on one it would be a Boston-Woodson level showdown. Johnson is very good but that's a tough ask. The thing about OSU is that they have 4 or 5 NFL WRs so even if Johnson completely blankets one of them, we will need Wallace, Sainristil, and somebody else to get the other guys.
It goes WAY beyond WR2/CB2.
I'm more optimistic about the game then I have been in a looooong time but their pass O vs our pass D is still a matchup that scares me.
September reflections heading into October
ReplyDeleteOFFENSE
I see no downside to treating September as glorified practice for the OL, but October should be about gelling in preparation for November and the post-season. Include me in the group calling for Henderson to lock in as the LT starter. Getting a red-shirt on Hinton would be ideal, but maybe asking too much. With Jones as the sixth man and Hinton as insurance, the OL will be in great shape.
With Henderson and the TEs trio locking in, the run game looked the strongest it looked all year against Nebraska. I would guess it was a season high success rate. Hopefully those that were worried about the run game a few weeks ago feel better now.
I was worried about the TE depth and run blocking in the offseason. Losing Schoon and Honigford and the others was a lot of snaps to replace. I'm no longer worried. Barner is stepping up and Bredeson has elevated his game. Reports are that Hibner is going to red-shirt and then transfer, so depth is still a question if anyone goes down. But so far so good at TE.
I could pick nits but the offense is rounding into what is pretty close to a best case scenario. JJ elevating as a passer and being used just enough as a rusher. 2 RB sets with Edwards all over the field. Mullings emerging to keep tread on the tires. Wilson and Loveland are a helluva top 2 with Johnson not far behind and a couple of youngsters looking capable of keeping the top 3 receivers fresh. etc.
Still questions about how this all transfers to real competition but ... we saw the end of last year and Rutgers D isn't bad either, so we can be pretty confident it will.
Roman Wilson is the man. If he's making highlight catches like yesterday he may be one of our top draft choices.
DEFENSE
The defense has been good but I think we're farther from the best case scenario here. For one thing, Mason Graham is hurt. That's hopefully just a blip but I'd rather have him not playing with a club against PSU and OSU than with it.
Secondary unfortunately still has some things to work out. Injuries have held back the young guys. QJ and Harris have been alright but these are 5th year guys with limited ceilings -- their relative success so far does not necessarily translate to OSU (or Maryland). But the floor is there and it's pretty solid.
Pass rush has not popped, though Harrell seems to have made some progress. It is what it is, probably. Stewart maybe still ramping up.
On the bright side, the DTs and Barrett are as good as we could have hoped. It seems like we're starting to get guys back and healthy (like Sabb). Clock is ticking on Walker but Hill and Waller still have October to elevate.
The off coverage Mgoblog guys were complaining about -- well if you believe we should be working on the things we're going to do against OSU all year, we're doing that. No complaints here.
The defense might be the best in the country. Everyone is grading out exceeding expectations, they have given up ONE first team TD all year on the "welcome back Mr Moore" rutgers play for 70 years. Harrell has SMASHED expectations. The LBs are all over the place. Johnson has not played much and we have not needed him. Yet.
DeleteIF everyone can stay healthy, this might be up there as the best of all time.
I see 17 getting better and Harrel is like "wtf is that guy?" better.
The #2 CB is the only question.
Just to be clear - I have no complaints about the results on D. We just haven't faced a good offense yet. Said it above but I'll repeat - I wish Maryland was coming to town sooner so we could get a stiffer test.
DeleteRight now game day is easier than live reps in practice for these guys. They need somebody to push them, because OSU and PSU very likely will.
Harrell is doing exactly what I thought he would do when he was a quality backup as a sophomore. I'll admit I wavered after last year when the pass rush still didn't pop, but it was more incrementing expectations down - I never bought the criticisms from people like Seth at Mgoblog. The coaches were playing this kid for a reason. He's not Ojabo but he's good.
CB4 is the question I have. Last year against OSU and TCU we had Green, Turner, Johnson, Sainristil all locked in -- and still gave up a lot of yards to WRs. Lost two of those four, added Wallace, still dunno if we have better than a walk-on for the bottom of rotation. We can ask Johnson/Sainristil/Wallace to play every snap but that's asking for trouble. We don't need Woodson reincarnated but we need someone who won't be picked on immediately if they are out there for 10-15 snaps.
That's how I see it anyway. Still hoping for Hill or Waller (or even Walker) to pass Keshaun Harris by November.