Surprise, surprise, surprise! For the second game in a row, almost nobody gave Michigan a chance to win. And for the second game in a row, almost everybody was wrong. The mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, who almost made the College Football Playoff with a 9-3 record, fell to 9-4. And when all is said and done, on paper that's not far from where Michigan finished at 8-5. Alabama had lost some players to the transfer portal, but Michigan was missing ten starters (Myles Hinton, Colston Loveland, Kalel Mullings, Tyler Morris, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Josaiah Stewart, Will Johnson, Makari Paige, Tommy Doman) and the guy who was on the cover of NCAA '25 (Donovan Edwards) and still won the game.
Hit the jump for more.
Bowl records don't matter anymore. I want to say this close to the front, because I've been saying this for several years and it still applies. Whether Michigan won or lost, it didn't matter. Some teams have players opt out and the backups want to shine. Some teams have players play who wish they weren't there. In this case, I wonder if Alabama's players saw Michigan's depleted lineup and thought, "Oh, this is going to be an easy win. We're going to crush these guys." And then when Alabama got hit in the mouth in the first quarter, they didn't know what to do. So I won't say that Michigan was better than Alabama in 2024 or that Michigan has a superior program going forward, but on December 31, 2024, Michigan was the better football team.
The defense appears to be in good hands. Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale is slated to return in 2025, and that looks like a good thing. There's still an NFL hiring cycle remaining, and with the whole league trying to hire Baltimore Ravens-style defensive coordinators, there's no guarantee that a team won't take a shot on Martindale. But if he returns with the players who are expected to return, that side of the ball seems to be in good shape. Even with 75% of Michigan's defensive line gone - including two potential first round picks at defensive tackle - the remaining players got constant pressure on Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe. Throw in a variety of blitzes that Milroe didn't recognize (CB Aamir Hall and S Brandyn Hillman each notched a sack, and Hall's was of the strip sack variety), and it was an ugly day for the star quarterback. Milroe finished 16/32 for 192 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 lost fumble, and 5 sacks taken. He had a 41-yard designed run and still managed just 7 net rushing yards on 16 attempts.
Jordan Marshall had a good debut as a starting running back. With Michigan's top two running backs opting out to prepare for the NFL, true freshman Marshall was given his first opportunity. After managing just 8 carries for 20 yards during the regular season, he broke out with 23 carries for 100 yards in this game alone. The offensive line didn't provide a ton of running room, so Marshall had to do a lot of it on his own by breaking tackles and bouncing things outside. But it's good to see that Michigan has another tackle-breaking back, because that's going to help them keep their identity moving forward under Chip Lindsey. The second-stringer for this game was Benjamin Hall (16 carries, 28 yards), who basically just got what was blocked for him, so I think it's good that Michigan is planning to bring in Alabama's Justice Haynes for a good 1-2 punch with Marshall.
The passing game was abysmal. I'm not going to harp on this because it was something we've seen all season, but starting quarterback Davis Warren (9/12, 73 yards, 1 TD) and backup Alex Orji (2/3, 2 yards, 1 INT) combined for 75 passing yards. The "leading" receiver was Semaj Morgan, who caught all 4 of his targets and had 19 yards after the catch . . . but still managed just 5 net receiving yards. Yes, you read that correctly: he ran for 19 yards after the catch and eked out just 5 total yards. Gross. Fredrick Moore had 3 catches for 37 yards, including a nice toe-tapping catch for a TD from Warren. Orji's only downfield attempt resulted in an ugly interception, further strengthening my argument that he should use his exceptional athleticism to change positions.
I didn't like Michigan's screen game, but I appreciated the attempt. Interim offensive coordinator Steve Casula's tweak for this game was to include more RPO-style plays, which included a screen wrinkle where fullback Max Bredeson would motion across the formation, the ball would be snapped with him in the slot, and then the QB would throw the ball to a slot receiver with both the outside receiver and Bredeson blocking for him. I believe Michigan tried it four or five times, and it was ugly pretty much every time, except when walk-on Joe Taylor gained 9 yards on one catch. I like that Casula was trying to give easy throws to the quarterbacks, but in reality, the timing just wasn't there, and Michigan's outside receivers didn't block it well enough, anyway.
The offensive line wasn't good but it was a possible glimpse at next year. With Hinton opting out of the bowl game and Jeffrey Persi and Andrew Gentry both unavailable, Michigan went with a true freshman Andrew Sprague at right tackle and moved starting right tackle Evan Link to left tackle for the bowl game. Sprague had just 6 total snaps coming into this game, played 67 against Alabama, and came away with a grade of 63.3 from PFF, which is respectable. Meanwhile, Link managed just his ninth-best overall grade (52.7) of the season, while flipping to the left side. It may be noteworthy, though, that his pass blocking grade of 87.2 was his second-highest of the season behind the 88.2 he posted against Michigan State. I talked in my unpublished game preview (sorry, but I just got through the offense before running out of time) about Link having been a left tackle in high school and being surprised he looked so uncomfortable at right tackle this season. I don't really buy that he lacks the athleticism to play tackle. He may be a guard in the long run, but I'm not ready to pull the plug on him as a tackle. Regardless, with Link at left tackle, Sprague at right tackle, Greg Crippen at center (who announced his return for 2025 on social media), and right guard Giovanni El-Hadi likely coming back in 2025, this may have been a preview of next year's line. The only guaranteed departure is left guard Josh Priebe. Michigan is currently pursuing transfer portal offensive linemen, as well as bringing in star recruit Andrew Babalola and possibly Ty Haywood. So there's a long way to go before things are decided, but it was a good thing for these guys to get reps together in a game situation.
It was a good way to end the year. Whether bowl game records matter or not (hint: they don't!), it's still a good feeling to come away with a win. It does give players, coaches, and fans a happy feeling to end on a high note. Now these players can walk into the off-season having felt success against another good team, and it was the first win as a major contributor for a lot of those young players like Sprague and Marshall. Anytime you walk into a competitive situation, you want to emerge victorious. And Michigan did that, so . . .
. . . Hail to the Victors. Go Blue.
So the bowl games do matter. As you said, "Anytime you walk into a competitive situation, you want to emerge victorious." Add in the fact that you've got a big crowd and TV audience, and that many players are getting the chance to show the world what they've got, and these non-playoff bowl games can be huge. Especially when we win (c:
ReplyDeleteRight. I think there's a distinction there, which I made above but perhaps not clearly. Bowl RECORDS don't matter. I really don't care if Jim Harbaugh went 1-and-whatever or if Rutgers is 4-0 in their last four bowl games. Sherrone Moore is 1-0 in bowl games? *shrug* Judging a program or a coach by their bowl record is about as useful as judging an NFL team for its preseason record. I think the Lions went 4-0 in the preseason before they went 0-16, and there have been Super Bowl teams who went 0-4 in the preseason.
DeletePlaying time matters. Performance matters for individuals. Success matters. Confidence matters. The win-loss records don't.
Agree. I stopped weighing Bowl games ten years ago when the opt outs started, and especially when we lost key guys against Florida following the 2o18 season
DeleteBut when we win ... LFG!!!
agreed, these non-playoff bowl games offer little other than slight momentum shifts. a loss may not devastate a program but a win can only help recruiting (hs/portal), help further instill work hard for positive results culture, and put players in slightly better mindset to start winter workouts. the practices are important so it can be a big deal for struggling teams to become bowl eligible.
ReplyDeleteclearly next years team will be determined by QB/OL. they have enough talent returning on D with solid identity & concept continuity to compete in the conference if the O pulls its weight. time will tell. fun end to the season though to somehow beat 2 top 10 programs despite an offense struggling to top 200 yards
Davis Warren had me screaming at the TV: leaves a clean pocket, holds the ball too long ... struggles with most throws. That said, Orji had me wishing we had a healthy Warren. With solid passpro all day, he looked like a WR, TE or RB thrown in as an emergency option
ReplyDeleteCoach Moore said he wanted to ADD size, but didn't say how much ... Fred Moore is only 2" taller than Tyler Morris, but went up and grabbed our first contested TD. He looked like an option for 2o25
Semaj was frustrating. We know he is quick & has long speed, not dude couldn't get anything done with the ball in hand all year
IOL couldn't open holes, but without much a pass game, it's tough to judge ... my second watch was more favorite on Sprague, but he & Link need time in the weight room AND to be pushed in competition. Attack the Portal please
Agree on Haynes. Marshall made something out of nothing several times, but Hall isn't that guy. No other RB got a carry. I hope Bredeson returns, but if not maybe Hall can contribute as a hammering panda
On D, we may have lost Derrick Moore. Dude was an absolute beast out there. If not, our D is elite
All hail Amir Hall, who started this year shakey, but may have played himself into the draft boards. As big as Milroe is, Hall never flinched, and was attacking. Coverage was solid too. Get another out of the Portal
If Wink leaves, it'll suck. But Morgan may be ready, and earned an opportunity with the Secondary's end of year (and recruiting) ... watch out for rivals trying to poach him. I was so wrong to want him out after Illinois!
The size at WR would help with the blocking. I just don't think the current guys have what it takes to block at an effective level, for a variety of reasons. For the most part, they're small. But they also lack tenacity. Fred Moore, Tyler Morris, etc. aren't going to push anyone around. Kendrick Bell might get there, but he's still light and he's converting from quarterback.
DeleteI would like to see Michigan find at least one starting tackle in the portal and then let Link/Sprague duke it out for the other spot, as well as Babalola/Frazier/Haywood (possibly).
I see Hall as an undrafted guy because he doesn't have great speed, but I think he turned into about what I expected by the end of the year. It took some time early in the season for him to adjust, but he's a solid player. If he could come back in 2025, I would be glad.
Hall exceeded my expectations. I thought he was there to compete with & get the most out of Jaiyre ... dude replaced Will MF Johnson!
DeleteMaybe CBs don't matter? Nah, that's stupid
#obsessed
Delete#rentfree
Positional value is made explicit in the NFL via salaries. You can argue college is different, but it's mostly not.
Salaries at CB have really changed in the last few years. It's kind of gone from a premium position to a lower value position (flipping with safeties and LBs somewhat) as defensive schemes have evolved to defend pass happy offenses.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/vywpg1/oc_understanding_the_market_for_each_starting/
https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/15dm01z/oc_trends_in_nfl_american_football_pay_by/#lightbox
The second link shows that, on the high end of the market at least, CB has gone from the 4th highest paid position group to the 7th. RB, in a trend that goes back a couple decades now, continues to decrease in pay relevance in every measure (top of the market, average salary, etc.). It's getting down there to the level of specialists like Fullbacks and Kickers.
At this point the average running back (including backups) makes less than the average kicker.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-kicker-running-back-salary-average/cq4vd3syoteuz5nep05yx94k
But RB isn't alone in seeing relative value decrease in the NFL. TE isn't far above RB.
Maybe it's not THAT stupid.
Maybe CBs don't matter that much, or at least not as much as they used to when there was more one-on-one on an island coverage going on. But they still matter more than RBs, where the difference between investing a 1st round pick vs 6th round pick might not be very much just as the difference between a 5-star back and a 3-star back might not be very much.
If the replacement level guy can do the job you don't need to pay big money for a incrementally better than replacement level guy. That's been evident at FB and RB for a couple decades and NFL GMs have evolved accordingly. It seems to be happening to some degree at CB too, so if Michigan is playing an NFL style defense that does a lot of zone coverage and gives CBs a lot of safety help over the top -- then yeah maybe the Amir Halls and Josh Wallace's of the world are a smarter investment than trying to get 5-star recruits that don't happen to be legacy recruits in your own backyard (I.e., unicorns, not sustainable). And maybe a $100K investment (hypothetically) in a Ben Hall as your RB2 is smarter money than a $1M investment (hypothetically) in a Justice Haynes as your RB2. Maybe that $900K could instead be going to another position.
College football used to be mostly immune from these kind of distinctions between positions. Your constraint was on number of scholarships, not salary-caps or NIL budgets (which function like caps at the program-level). But with free agency (portal) and NIL (salaries) being introduced, CFB has become a lot like the NFL. And now we have general managers like Courtney Morgan at Alabama and Sean Magee at Michigan, whose job is to manage the salaries/NIL allocations, player acquisitions, scouting, etc.
https://mgoblue.com/news/2024/3/6/sean-magee-named-u-m-football-general-manager
This is to say that positional value in CFB isn't just a wonky argument for things like the TTB countdown anymore. It matters now. How the GM and coach value positions (via NIL spending) directly impacts wins and losses. It's a strategic decision.
DeleteMy opinion:
Michigan did a TREMENDOUS job hitting underutilized positions with Harbaugh in 2023 (OL/TE) and finding value in guys like Hausman and Stewart because they came with questions (underclassmen that had development ahead of him but clearly been underrated by the recruiting industry, small school guy considered to be undersized by some).
With Moore, I see good signs with Michigan seeming to prioritize the interior DL (not only with the additions in the '25 class but the search for depth in '24 was encouraging even though it didn't pan out). I also like how Moore addressed some of the biggest roster needs in Spring of 2024 (Kicker and DB) and seems to be hitting on most of the big roster needs for 2025 as well.
I don't like that QB was ignored in 2024 and not prioritized in 2025. I don't like that RB seems to be more important than WR to Moore and that Moore has (at least thusfar) emphasized size over skill at the WR position. I don't like that TE and OL appear to be afterthoughts - extremely un-Harbaugh (and un-Schembechler) and quite surprising for a former OL coach who espouses a motto of SMASH. (Not that mottos mean anything real.)
But the portal river never runs dry it only ebbs and flows. Michigan can still get a boatload more guys in the next few weeks and in the spring. Never judge a recruiting class before it's complete!
Ok, ok, so Wink Martindale is officially off the list of stuff I have to worry about in 2025.
ReplyDeleteAside from hitting us pretty good on a couple screens and the last drive of the first half, Martindale had em completely flummoxed. 5 sacks is hard to do against anybody, against Alabama it's more so. They had absolutely no idea where it was coming from. Until the last four plays of the game, my favorite play on defense was the sack at about 3:50 in the third where Milroe waited and waited and then waited too long for a guy to come open. That one was pretty much the definition of a "coverage sack".
The last four calls of the game were masterclass on getting pressure when you're under pressure. He rushed three then brought a guy late on the first snap. It looked like six coming on the second, but one guy picked up the back coming out and there was a guy spying Milroe walking up the middle. On the third snap, it looked like 6 again, 5 came and got a hit on Milroe. On fourth down, he only sent the D line and covered. Milroe felt every one of those calls. I'm impressed. Not that Martindale gives a rat's rear end.
A true freshman and a redshirt freshman at the tackles bodes well for us. I didn't like seeing the Mormon kid move on as I was rooting for him, but ... he probably knew.
I hope the young, alleged to be maulers indeed turn out to be that inside. I'd still like to see Hall get a shot at the second level.
Feel free to accuse me of piling on, but that was a bonehead timeout. When he called it I thought to myself, "Franklinesque". Hoping this is not a thing.
I agree on Martindale. I think he had a really good game plan. Milroe hit the wheel route for the TD and had a big run, but those things are going to happen. If Kalen DeBoer and his guys couldn't pull off a good drive or a good play here or there, I would be a little disappointed.
DeleteOn a side note, I actually really like DeBoer. I think he's a good dude and a quality coach. I think the pressure is getting to him a little bit at Alabama. For his sake I hope he figures it out, but I don't really want Alabama to have an extension of their great success.
I haven't really been a fan of Gentry since he first got on the field at Michigan. I mean, I'm sure he's a fine person and everything, but he just doesn't have what it takes. Neither did Persi. Their feet just weren't good enough to play tackle, and they're too tall/gawky to move inside.
Good points on Wink and yeah he does absolutely not give one iota of an F about what fans and media have to say about him. That's a benefit to being an NFL veteran coaching down at the college level.
DeleteSherrone Moore's use of timeouts and game theory more broadly absolutely is a thing to worry about. He's young and should get better...I hope. But the instincts to make the right call are not there at all. The rigt move would be to hire some kind of analyst that Moore trusts to give him direction in the headset during games. Great leaders know their own weaknesses and get help to address them.
Obviously Mullings had more carries and also more snaps (383 to 322) than Edwards. But technically it was Edwards who started 9 games to Mullings 3.
ReplyDeleteIt will be interesting to see who is drafted and where, with both of these guys coming out at the same time.
Agree with Thunder on the optimism for the 2025 defense. What a ride for Wink on the roller coaster of public opinion over this season! Now he's a guy we worry about being poached by the NFL when people wanted him bought out around mid season. Although he denies it, I think he did learn a few things this season.
ReplyDeleteIf they can bring this coaching staff back I think they are in good shape and could perhaps be a top 10 defense in '25.
OFFSEASON TO-DO LIST
1. Get Rayshaun Benny back
2. Get Rod Moore back
3. Talk Barham into a return to play EDGE
4. Find a portal DT
5. Find a portal CB
DL in '25
Going to be a dropoff whenever you lose 3 high round NFL draft picks but there's plenty of room to be optimistic if Rayshaun Benny comes back to shore up the middle alongside Payne. Pierce and Etta made good progress this year and should emerge as strong rotation players behind them. Moore and Guy will be among the better starting edge duos in the conference and again you've got a young guy in Brandt who seems to be ascending. Nichols also impressed for a freshman. If Barham is back (as rumored), he's a high end versatile weapon. This would be an extremely veteran unit with good depth if they can keep Benny out of the draft.
LB in '25
Again, you have a veteran starting lineup and promising talent behind them. Hausman will be a senior and one of the stars of the defense but Rolder has played quite well when he's been healthy. He looks ready to step into a starting spot as a senior himself. Bowles and Sullivan look like talented young backups and Hood, if he returns, would be a reliable veteran option.
DB in '25
So much hinges on Rod Moore's return, but if it happens you've locked up your nickel spot with an all american. This would allow Berry, Hill, and Edmonds to form a solid CB rotation, maybe with reinforcements from an elite freshman class. Berry seems to have settled in with a simplified role at corner and Hill has flashed elite talent for much of the season. Safety is overflowing with good options. Metcalf and Mangham have solid starting experience at other schools and Hillman and Curtis are the talented internal options who saw plenty of playing time in '24.
PORTAL NEEDS
Debatable that there are any but even if we're just trying to supplement and enhance, the need is pretty limited for this point in the offseason. Adding an interior DL option would be best given the preference for heavy rotation and regular usage of jumbo fronts. That would reduce the snap count for Payne and keeps a guy like Iwunnah from being relied on. The other need on paper would seem to be adding a starting caliber CB. This would probably bump Edmond out of the rotation and provide insurance on Hill. Given how well things have gone with Wallace and Hall fitting into the defenses, it's hard not to want to see something like this again, but adding anyone increases the risk of internal departures so hopefully the coaches are managing this.
"Bowl games don't matter anymore"
ReplyDeleteIt's debatable that a mid-tier bowl game like this Hall-of-Fame/Outback/Reliaquest Bowl ever did.
It was always an exhibition mostly for fun, a trip designed to reward the team and an opportunity to support the local economy (driven by local chamber of commerce who want the tourist foot traffic, hotel bookings, etc.). Yes it is true that NFL (and now Portal) opt outs have an made the pointlessness of it more overt, but it was never a season-defining thing. It's good harmless fun to have a feel good exhibition game that keeps fans of the winning side happy (er than they should be) for the long offseason. That's perfectly fine!
I agree with pretty much all of Thunder's comments on the offense.
ReplyDeleteI actually though Warren played his best game of the season. Of course the coaches didn't ask him to do very much, but the back shoulder TD throw to Moore was spot on. The only obvious mistake I saw was holding onto the ball way too long on the play he got hurt on. I don't expect to see Warren take anymore meaningful snaps in a winged helmet, so it's too bad he got hurt when he did. Throw it away Davis!
Orji's INT was U G L Y! All the best to the young man wherever he ends up.
I'd feel perfectly fine with Jordan Marshall as the primary RB next year. Hall's performance wasn't a shocker but it did validate why the coaches think Haynes will bring value.
Increment expectations up for Frederick Moore. I'm giving our WR room a pass on 2024 because of the incompetent QB play but I expect improvement anyway. Moore didn't do anything amazing but he looked like a capable option.
TE room still looks well below Harbaugh standards, even with improvement expected for Kelin, Hansen, and Marshall. If Bredeson is gone...they could really use an impact portal addition. Presumably Hansen will improve his blocking and Klein is OK, but Michigan is used to having NFL-level play at the position and it simply was not there this year outside of Loveland (who spent a lot of his time when healthy filling the void at WR).
OL - #1 offseason need is here. I do agree with Thunder that this was probably a good preview for next season. In the end it was good that Hinton opted out to open things up for Sprague. Still, you don't want to at least bring in some competition for Sprague and Link at OT and you still need someone to replace Priebe. Probably the most disappointing thing from the bowl game was that Crippen and El Hadi scored so poorly to PFF.
What I wouldn't do to get another duo like Oluwatimi/Hinton or Nugent /Henderson....
That U G L Y interception was ... predictive ... a year ago
Delete#iwasright
#obsessed
Delete#rentfree
#youwerewrong