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As much as we like to get excited about every single Michigan recruit, it's important to keep perspective and realize that not every one of these players will be destined for stardom. This exercise can give us a range of what to expect from some of these players, even though star rankings can be very wrong.
Will Johnson - CB - Grosse Pointe (MI) South
2022 ranking: #14
Historical ranking: tied for #9 all-time at Michigan
Tied with: S Daxton Hill (2019) and DE LaMarr Woodley (2003)
Closest positional comparisons: Jabrill Peppers (#3 in 2014) and Donovan Warren (#27 in 2007)
Derrick Moore - DE - Baltimore (MD) St. Francis
2022 ranking: #49
Historical ranking: tied for #37 all-time at Michigan
Tied with: OG Kyle Kalis (2012) and RB Ty Isaac (2013)
Closest positional comparisons: Pierre Woods (#43 in 2001) and Luiji Vilain (#56 in 2017)
Keon Sabb - S - Bradenton (FL) IMG Academy
2022 ranking: #84
Historical ranking: #64 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: OT Cory Zirbel (#83 in 2005) and #87 Kyle Bosch (2013)
Closest positional comparisons: Michael Williams (#72 in 2007) and Demar Dorsey (#87 in 2010)
Hit the jump for more.
Tyler Morris - WR - La Grange Park (IL) Nazareth Academy
2022 ranking: #133
Historical ranking: tied for #121 all-time at Michigan
Tied with: RB Jerome Jackson (2003), TE Michael Massey (2004), TE Taco Charlton (2013)
Closest positional comparisons: Tarik Black (#122 in 2017) and Nico Collins (#136 in 2017)
Darrius Clemons - WR - Portland (OR) Westview
2022 ranking: #143
Historical ranking: #130 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: CB Terry Richardson (#141 in 2012) and DE Ryan Van Bergen (#145 in 2007)
Closest positional comparisons: Nico Collins (#136 in 2017) and Ahmir Mitchell (#167 in 2016)
Zeke Berry - S - Concord (CA) De La Salle
2022 ranking: #168
Historical ranking: #144 all-time at Michigan
Tied with: TE Mustapha Muhammad (2018)
Closest positional comparisons: Jordan Morant (#165 in 2020) and Brandon Smith (#169 in 2008)
Jimmy Rolder - LB - Chicago (IL) Marist
2022 ranking: #219
Historical ranking: tied for #185 all-time at Michigan
Tied with: LB Cobrani Mixon (2006)
Closest positional comparison: Cobrani Mixon (2006)
Mason Graham - DT - Anaheim (CA) Servite
2022 ranking: #257
Historical ranking: tied for #206 all-time at Michigan
Tied with: DT Maurice Hurst, Jr. (2013)
Closest positional comparisons: DT Maurice Hurst, Jr.
Colston Loveland - TE - Gooding (ID) Gooding
2022 ranking: #316
Historical ranking: #250 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: DE David Ojabo (#315 in 2019) and TE Ian Bunting (#317 in 2014)
Closest positional comparisons: Tyrone Wheatley, Jr. (#313 in 2015) and Ian Bunting (#317 in 2014)
Kody Jones - S - Germantown (TN) Germantown
2022 ranking: #333
Historical ranking: tied for #263 all-time at Michigan
Tied with: RB Michael Cox (2008) and TE A.J. Williams (2012)
Closest positional comparisons: Quinten Johnson (#318 in 2019) and Vladimir Emilien (#378 in 2009)
Alex Orji - QB - Sachse (TX) Sachse
2022 ranking: #441
Historical ranking: #314 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: LB John Thompson (#439 in 2004) and DT Richard Ash (#442 in 2010)
Closest positional comparisons: Jason Forcier (#328 in 2005) and Wilton Speight (#453 in 2014)
Kenneth Grant - DT - Merrillville (IN) Merrillville
2022 ranking: #446
Historical ranking: #316 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: DT Richard Ash (#442 in 2010) and DE Ken Wilkins (#447 in 2010)
Closest positional comparisons: Richard Ash (#442 in 2010) and Phillip Paea (#457 in 2017)
Jayden Denegal - QB - Apple Valley (CA) Apple Valley
2022 ranking: #454
Historical ranking: #321 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: QB Wilton Speight (#453 in 2014) and DT Phillip Paea (#457 in 2017)
Closest positional comparisons: Wilton Speight (#453 in 2014) and David Cone (#637 in 2006)
Amorion Walker - WR - Ponchatoula (FL) Ponchatoula
2022 ranking: #524
Historical ranking: #343 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: LB Noah Furbush (#521 in 2014) and WR Andrel Anthony (#525 in 2021)
Closest positional comparisons: Maurice Ways (#497 in 2014) and Andrel Anthony (#525 in 2021)
Marlin Klein - TE - Rabun Gap (GA) Nachoochee
2022 ranking: #549
Historical ranking: tied for #348 all-time at Michigan
Tied with: OG Zach Carpenter (#549 in 2019)
Closest positional comparisons: Matt Hibner (#394 in 2020) and Carson Butler (#586 in 2005)
Myles Pollard - CB - Brentwood (TN) Ravenwood
2022 ranking: #602
Historical ranking: #363 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: CB Sammy Faustin (#593 in 2018) and C Pat Sharrow (#603 in 2003)
Closest positional comparisons: Sammy Faustin (#593 in 2018) and Troy Woolfolk (#692 in 2007)
Alessandro Lorenzetti - OT - Windsor (CT) Loomis Chaffee
2022 ranking: #680
Historical ranking: #377 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: TE Khalid Hill (#666 in 2013) and OT Jack Stewart (#681 in 2019)
Closest positional comparisons: Tom Berishaj (#653 in 2002) and Jack Stewart (#681 in 2019)
Micah Pollard - LB - Jacksonville (FL) Bartram Trail
2022 ranking: #717
Historical ranking: #389 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: DE Rondell Biggs (#716 in 2002) and CB Mike Sainristil (#718 in 2019)
Closest positional comparisons: David Harris (#707 in 2002) and Obi Ezeh (#743 in 2006)
Damani Dent - S - Jacksonville (FL) Terry Parker
2022 ranking: #775
Historical ranking: #405 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: WR Da'Mario Jones (#772 in 2013) and LB Jared Wangler (#780 in 2014)
Closest positional comparisons: Josh Metellus (#739 in 2016) and Allen Gant (#859 in 2012)
C.J. Stokes - RB - Columbia (SC) Hammond
2022 ranking: #794
Historical ranking: #409 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: CB J.T. Floyd (#785 in 2008) and TE Luke Schoonmaker (#799 in 2018)
Closest positional comparisons: Michael Barrett (#754 in 2018) and Thomas Rawls (#908 in 2011)
Deuce Spurlock - LB - Madison (AL) Madison Academy
2022 ranking: #1007
Historical ranking: #447 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: LB Devin Gil (#997 in 2016) and LB Joey Velazquez (#1039 in 2019)
Closest positional comparisons: Devin Gil (#997 in 2016) and Joey Velazquez (#1039 in 2019)
Connor Jones - OT - Monument (CO) Palmer Ridge
2022 ranking: #1020
Historical ranking: #448 all-time at Michigan
Flanked by: LB Devin Gil (#997 in 2016) and LB Joey Velazquez (#1039 in 2019)
Closest positional comparisons: Mark Huyge (#973 in 2007) and Jon Runyan, Jr. (#1128 in 2015)
CONCLUSIONS
There are really no conclusions to take away from this except for the fact that sometimes outcomes are random. Okay, the one seemingly solid conclusion is that a guy ranked as highly as Will Johnson is very, very likely to be a star; the other players around him in the rankings are Dax Hill, LaMarr Woodley, Jabrill Peppers, and Donovan Warren. Those are two 1st round picks, one possible 1st round pick, and a 1st Team All-Big Ten player that didn't get drafted for some reason.
Denegal and Orji, what exactly are they going to be doing?
ReplyDeleteI guess I don't exactly understand the question.
DeleteI guess I mean, Dengal won't be able to pass McCarthy or McNamara. and CJ Carr is coming in after that (it looks very much like that anyway). So Dengal will be back up. And Orji, he is a project. I don't think Jim Harbaugh brought him in to play QB.
DeleteSo I'm just wondering where both will end up.
I'm inclined to think that Denegal will not really play at Michigan, but then again, I thought McNamara would transfer after sitting behind McCaffrey and/or Milton. Sometimes weird things happen. I'm not much of a fan of Denegal's game.
DeleteOrji is in the same boat, except he's not stuck with one position; at least he has the physical traits to play H-back or LB or something.
I don't think either one will be QB1.
I always liked McNamara a lot. I always thought Gattis didn't know what he was doing when it came to McNamara. And when Jim Harbaugh pulled Milton in the Wisconsin game, and McNamara came in and lit things up immediately, I felt like I was seeing what I thought of him all along.
DeleteI don't know if Denegal can start at any big P5 school. But maybe he has potential, and will develop and prove me wrong. I think he should have looked at how many years JJ McCarthy has left at Michigan, and realized he was probably never going to be named starter, and so not commit to Michigan. But he is very young, and probably thought he was going to become better than McCarthy and McNamara. But again, maybe he will prove me wrong. Honestly, I feel sad for his future here, because I think he will be in the transfer portal some day after coming to a disappointing realization he isn't a big name school QB.
When it comes to Michigan QBs it's definitely been "expect the unexpected" since Hoke.
DeleteBig disappointments from some highly ranked guys like Morris, Peters, McCaffrey.
Some surprises starts by kids dismissed as career backups like Speight, McNamara, and Milton.
A few other surprises - like Denard staying, Rudock's career year, O'Korns poor play, and Patterson not elevating.
Here's to JJ breaking the trend, getting better each year, and delivering on his elite recruiting rankings.
As for Denegal and Oriji - best to wait and see because you never know. I wouldn't worry about them transferring. If they do so it'll probably be by their own choice. An internship under McNamara, Weiss, and Harbaugh isn't such a bad thing for kid - some great experiences on and off the field and lots of lessons to be learned. Even if he ends up at Fresno State or whatever it's a good thing. I doubt, for example, that Morris, Villari, and others regret their time at Michigan, even though their football careers didn't go as they dreamed.
It'll be really interesting to watch since there are so many different ways for McNamara's career to go from here. He'll be just a sophomore in terms of eligibility (but a 22 year old senior IRL). So hypothetically he could just stick around and keep starting games in 2022, 2023, and 2024 and have the greatest career of any Michigan QB ever. Or he could go to the NFL. Or he could transfer. Or or or.
DeleteLank, I actually agree with everything here
DeleteIt's okay to not expect much from Denegal & Oriji. But strange things have happened at the M quarterback position since Chad Henne left
I could bet money that neither of those QBs will be named starter, unless by injury.
Delete@JDD
DeleteI mean, I wouldn't bet on them being starters either. But a lot of people said similar things about Speight, Milton, and McNamara.
The funny thing about roster projections 2 or 3 years out is that they are never correct. Been true through the Harbaugh era at QB:
In 2015 we thought John O'Korn was the future
In 2017 we thought Brandon Peters was the future
In 2018 and 2019 we thought Dylan McCaffrey was the future.
In 2021 we thought JJ was the future.
Maybe this time we'll be right.
If Mason Graham turns into Maurice Hurst V2.0, then huzzah! :-)
ReplyDeleteThis was a fun read. Thanks!
I like the positional comparisons. Really gives you a sense of range of outcomes.
ReplyDeleteIn terms of conclusions, I think it shows how high the variance for these guys is. Recruiting rankings are strong indicators in aggregate (for teams) but for individuals you just never know.