J.J. McCarthy is pretty good. Discussions often begin and end with the quarterback play, and McCarthy played pretty well against a very good defense. I have seen some people being critical, but here are the numbers: 36/50 (72%), 375 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions over the past two weeks against Maryland and Iowa. He's not putting up Baker Mayfield-type numbers, but he's completing a ton of passes and mostly taking care of the ball. The only real qualm I have is he holds on to the ball a second too long sometimes. He did it last week against Maryland, and he did it once again against Iowa. It should have been a fumble against the Terrapins, and it was definitely a fumble against the Hawkeyes.
Hit the jump for more.
The running back room is back to full strength. It was nice to have Donovan Edwards back in uniform even though he still looks a little gimpy on that bad ankle. He turned in a nice performance with 5 carries for 29 yards and 4 catches for 21 yards and 1 touchdown. One of the best runs of his career came early against Iowa when he showed great patience on an inside zone play before bursting through the hole. One of my issues with him has been his hurrying through the hole and/or getting too close to his blockers, but if he can develop the patience that Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum have shown over the past couple seasons, look out! Corum was the real star of the game, though, with 29 carries for 133 yards and 1 touchdown. That's no small feat against a very tough, disciplined defense.
Jim Harbaugh and tight ends. I wonder how deep Michigan could go into the tight end well before they got to someone who wouldn't play well. Michigan hasn't really missed a beat since Erick All was lost to injury before the Maryland game. I think All is a plus player and he's made some big plays for Michigan - mainly the game winner against Penn State in 2021 - but Luke Schoonmaker has stepped up to catch 11 passes for 117 yards and 1 touchdown over the past two weeks. Meanwhile, there are scholarship guys on the bench while Max Bredeson runs out there as a walk-on and looks perfectly capable.
The pass rush cometh. Last week I talked a little bit about the lack of organic pass rush from Michigan's front four. Defensive end Mike Morris had 2 sacks in the first four weeks, and he doubled that total against Iowa. Late in the game, he lined up as a wide 9-technique - just like Aidan Hutchinson last year - and tore through the outside shoulder of Iowa right tackle Connor Colby. When 292 pounds can get a running start, good luck stopping the momentum. Meanwhile, outside linebacker Eyabi Okie (formerly Anoma) is earning more snaps. I'm not sure what the story is, but he was listed at 270+ pounds at UT-Martin last year and now he's listed at 244. Maybe he lost weight or someone was fudging the numbers, but reports about his lack of athleticism and pass rush are curious based on what we've seen. As he gets more comfortable with the defensive scheme at Michigan, it appears he's going to play more and more. He managed 3 assisted tackles, half a sack, and a quarterback hurry.
Spencer Petras is so hot and cold. Iowa's quarterback has a way of looking impressive and terrible on back to back plays. He throws way too many passes into the dirt. I don't think I've seen a passer at Michigan who has thrown ugly passes more frequently since Denard Robinson, so I can't imagine being an Iowa fan and thinking, "This is the best pocket passer we can find?" But then he unleashes some pretty deep balls, and that would be so infuriating if you're a Hawkeye. He finished 21/31 for 246 yards and 1 touchdown, while taking 4 sacks. Michigan tamped down star tight end Sam LaPorta pretty well (5 catches, 24 yards), but #2 tight end Luke Lachey had a huge game with 4 catches for 84 yards and 1 touchdown. Michigan might have a hard time defending teams with a couple effective receiving tight ends this year, but there aren't many teams with those types of weapons.
Hooray for the win. I expected a victory, but it's always a little tense when Michigan goes to Kinnick Stadium. Iowa scares me going all the way back to my early days as a Michigan fan when it seemed every game with the Hawkeyes was a nail-biter. There were some blowouts over the years, but I could never understand how Iowa - out in the middle of nowhere - could muster a roster that could keep up with the mighty Wolverines. I learned my lesson quickly, though, and I think I have a healthy amount of trepidation about playing Iowa, especially at their place. Michigan set the tone for the game early, but Petras and Iowa got some momentum late to make it at least a little bit interesting. 5-0 and on to Indiana.
My sense is Michigan is a good football team, leaning towards very good. It's got a ways to go before it can be labeled 'great.' But that's okay: they are delivering enjoyable and satisfying football week after week so far. They are beating the teams they should, and come the PSU and OSU games we'll see if they play competitive in the games where the teams are more evenly matched. Let us hope they don't suffer a fall in a trap game somewhere.
ReplyDeleteWe're at about the half-way point in the season. How would you grade the various assistant coaches at this point, after last year's shuffle?
ReplyDeleteOk, so I was both wrong and unnecessarily smug. The guy reminds me of Eddie Vanderdoes. On Iowa's first big gain to a tight end, Graham has a real Big Ten Guard by the throat 7 yards deep in the backfield maybe three inches from their Qb, "Whatshisname's" chest as he is delivering the ball. Then he makes just a dominant sack, 9 yards deep in their backfield a little later. And yes, he's enjoying the fact that Iowa, and probably everybody else is doubling and will probably continue to double Mazi. But ... if I had end zone film to watch and was game planning for us, I might be thinking about some extra attention for Mason Graham too.
ReplyDeleteOur D-Line is very good from one end of it to the other. Every appropriate skill set is well represented. It's a damn good thing. Our Lb's can be had.
We have had excellent quarterbacking for two straight BIG games.
Speaking of quarterbacking, on their 35 yard gain in the fourth quarter to their #2 tight end, that was as good a ball delivered by Whatshisname as you are ever gonna see in your life. Before scholarships got limited down to where it was fair, and the transfer portal, that kid would have been the 5th or worse option on somebody's bench, probably Penn State, and would be making plans for a marketing career somewhere. Now days, he's a serviceable Qb on the field at Iowa, making plans for a marketing career.
I'm glad we have PennSt at home. Their OL doesn't look as bad as it has, and their RBs can shake guys off. Win that, and 11 wins is very likely going into cbus
ReplyDeleteAgree. That looks like the one big test left before OSU.
DeleteEven that one - I am starting to wonder how much it really matters if we take care of business otherwise. It's just such small potatoes compared to the OSU outcome.
If we beat OSU and are 11-1 we still go to the big ten championship and playoff most likely. 12-0 might just be style points/seeding and I personally don't see much difference between a Georgia or Alabama matchup.
Lose to OSU while beating PSU maybe sneaks us into the playoff backdoor at 11-1 but I doubt it. I think I'd rather play in the Rose Bowl anyway at least if the loss is convincing. I suppose 10-2 could bump us into a lower tier bowl game.
With where we are at anything less than a Rose Bowl will feel disappointing. Helluva start to the season even if we haven't faced a complete opponent yet.
McCarthy has stats. But still, the team doesn't look better under him than under McNamara. And his stats really aren't that much better than McNamaras. But the fumbles are a problem .3 in 2 weeks . McNamara took much better care if the ball than that .Still am not seeling the team has more pitential with the QB change. Things felt better last year
ReplyDeleteThe comarison to Baker Mayfield doesn't strike the right note .McCarthy looks nothing like Mayfield .And again, Maryland has a very bad defense .And McNamaras numbers against Iowa last year were better.
Hopefully McCarthy will improve .If things continue as they are, Jim Harbaugh is going yo have to admit the change was a mistaje, and put McNamara back in . though it looks like McNanara might pitentially be out fir the year.
Sorry for typos. Im rushing at work
DeleteThis is my favorite McCarthy bashing post from you yet :)
DeleteYou're imagination is ugly and malicious . I am not bashing anything. You need to be banned for continual inflammatory commenting.
DeleteIf I'm wring, present your case why I'm wrong. Don't just take cheap, ugly shots, and then run away.
Delete2 hours and still no reply. You were probably going to just repeat a bunch of shallow naratives you've been hearing anyway.
DeleteWhat are you comparing to?
DeleteThis offense looks MUCH better than the 2021 offense through 5 games. I think you have forgotten the struggles vs Washington and Rutgers last year. And that's with McNamara being a year older.
Cade as a sophomore was dramatically inferior to JJ as a sophomore.
Iowa 21 vs Iowa 22 - the primary difference is 4th quarter when win probabilities were around 90%. In 2021 JJ came in to lead a couple late touchdowns drive and the defense gave up nothing. In 2022 JJ was a game manager with an injured backup and the defense gave up a couple scores.
I haven't forgotten anything .
DeleteIm working now so i dont have time to address all of your vety kengthy comment right now .But i will say this, I wouldnt be so sure McCarthy is better in his sophomore year than McNamara was in his. Thete was the huge come back vs Rutgers .And when Michigan was getting completely dominated by Wisconsin, he replaced Milton, and wasmt it in just 3 or 4 plays he got a TD?
If i have time at home i will reply to the rest of your term paper comment.
There's no need to address your points individually - they are non-sensical. So far your main arguments for Cade are based on 1) vibes, 2) leadership and 3) anti-Bill and Ted bias. When you do try to point to actual observations and numbers - you are just flat out wrong. McCarthy turns the ball over at a lower rate than McNamara, McCarthy had better numbers against a better Iowa defense and played on the road. You are claiming things that are clearly wrong. And FWIW - McCarthy hasn't been perfect. But he has been pretty damn good. And literally no one who I've talked to has expressed your general sentiment - that McNamara is better and the offense ran smoother last year.
DeleteI'm guessing that 'anonymous' and 'anonymous' are the same person. Some people just like to be argumentative. If others won't play along, they'll make do with a pseudo "argument" between the same hands on the keyboard.
DeleteNo, not the same person.
DeleteThis is too much for you.
@Anon 3:14.
DeleteSoph McNamara was good against Rutgers and awful against PSU.
Soph McCarthy has been good every game.
Soph McNamara completed 61% of his passes for 6 YPA and no INTs
Soph McCarthy has completed 78% of his passes for 10 YPA and no INTs. AND he's a run threat.
It's really not that lengthy of a comment. You have to cherry-pick Cade's best days to argue that he has performed up to McCarthy's level without acknowledging that he is 2 years younger and beat him out very clearly in 2022.
I have no interest in disrespecting Cade or diminishing how he stepped up in 2021 but these arguments against McCarthy are very weak. And I'm somebody who believes the competition was legitimately close through camp and expected Cade to hold on much longer through the year.
It would be helpful if the Anon's at least signed as X or Y or something, otherwise it's hard to track you all.
Cade McNamara is unavailable to play. It doesn't matter if he was the honest to God second coming of Tom Flippin Brady, he can't play.
DeleteThen, McCarthy has just blown him away statistically while making plays McNamara can only dream about. McCarthy, against Iowa, leaves an unblocked DE in his dust, rolls outside and throws a TD on a play McNamara gets it in the chops because the dust McNamara leaves, beats him to the spot.
Sorry Cade is hurt, would love to have him back, but he was trounced, thumped, dominated and any other adjective you might want to consider that might adequately explain a competition so overwhelmingly won by one man over another that no other outcome is even vaguely sniffed.
It was a beat down, a blow out, a run away, an ass kicking. It was never close. The best man won.
It's just that very simple.
Roanman
And I really like the kid.
My sentiment exactly, Roanman. I wish Cade the best - and loved what he brought us last year when everyone doubted him and the entire team. He was no small part in bringing Michigan football out of a tough place. No one can take that away from him. With that being said - his place on the team is as the backup when there is a healthy Cade and a healthy JJ.
Delete-The other anonymous
Iowa 2021
DeleteMcNamara: 16 for 24, 169 yds, 7.0 avg, 1 TD, 1 int, 0 fumbles
Iowa 2022:
McCarthy: 18/24, 155 yds, 6.5 avg, 1 TD, 0 int, 1 fumble
McNamara's numbers aren't better? They are. But, since they're so close, I guess you can call it a wash. But McCarthy is supposed to be better. That is why he replaced McNamara, correct? And more importantly, Michigan looked far better against Iowa with McNamara than with McCarthy. That was where the difference was supposed to be. Michigan was supposed to be better.
Maryland 2021:
McNamara: 21/28, 259 yds, 9.3 avg, 2 TDs, 0 ints, 0 fumbles
Maryland 2022:
McCarthy: 18/26, 220 yds, 8.5 avg, 2 TDs, 0 ints, 2 fumbles
Again, McNamara better. And I don't see it can be called a wash this time. And Michigan looked better in the 2021 game, much better.
So the reason the change was made is not panning out. Michigan is not a better team. Will it stay that way? Hopefully it will get better. There were real expectations of Michigan again getting to the playoffs this year, and doing even better this time. But now, with McCarthy in, those expectations were supposed to be even higher than that. That's the reason the change was made, correct?
If Michigan doesn't start looking better than last year, and real soon, the change back to McNamara needs to happen. If things don't start getting better do I expect McNamara to be put back in? No. We will just here, more and more, words like "higher ceiling with McCarthy," "more upside," etc, etc.
You're comparing CM games 11 & 13 (neutral site), against JJ games 3 & 4 (Kinnick) ... that's, something
DeleteTake a look at Lank's post (did I say that?): compare JJ to Cade as a Sophomore, and JJ wins. Compare JJ to Cade at the same number of starts, and JJ wins. Then, look at the fact that they competed THIS year, and JJ won
Where's the debate?
Yeah, let's pretend Michigan is better with JJ. I get it now.
DeleteOh, and sorry I haven't fallen in line with the group think. Just keep banging that narrative drum. That hype train has music!
DeleteWell now we're getting somewhere Anon904 - you're making a case with evidence. Well done.
DeleteBut there's a few issues in the comparison.
1. The '22 defenses are harder. Iowa is #3 and Maryland is #45. Last year those were both worse - #5 and #104. Per FEI
2. JJ is younger. Cade was at the end of his Junior year. JJ is at the start of his sophomore year.
3. Cade threw an INT. Which offsets the fumbles.
4. It's not clear that Cade was better. JJ's passer ratings were 143 and 166. Cades were 131 and 176. It's completely reasonable to look at the numbers and see a wash.
But let's pretend for a minute that the stats make your case as clearly as you say and we set aside the differences noted above. There's some pretty deep flaws in the logic.
1. "expectations were supposed to be even higher than that [a playoff]. That's the reason the change was made, correct?" Incorrect - the change was made because JJ won the competition.
2. "JJ is supposed to be better." "The team is supposed to be better." Again, expectations are irrelevant to this issue.of picking the better QB. But for the record - Michigan was generally NOT expected to return to the playoff. They are expected to lose to OSU. You've elevated your own feelings - because of JJ - and now you're upset that it's not going as well as you hoped?
3. "Michigan is not a better team". Michigan finished 4th last year in FEI with a score of 0.99. Michigan is now 4th in FEI of 1.04. They are playing as well or better.
4. You're conflating the team with the QB. The QB is important but it's not JJ's job or expectation that he can replace Aiden Hutchinson, David Ojabo, and Dax Hill. His job is to be the best QB on the team and he has clearly done that.
5. "f Michigan doesn't start looking better than last year, and real soon, the change back to McNamara needs to happen". Why would plugging in a lesser QB turn that around?
Now this part you nailed:
"If things don't start getting better do I expect McNamara to be put back in? No"
McNamara is hurt and not going to be put back in while he is injured.
Comparing last years games to this years games is nonsense. Both teams were different. Comparing this years performances is what matters and as Roanman so aptly put it, it's a beatdown, asskicking and other things.
DeleteIndividual Passing Statistics 2022
Player Rating COMP ATT INT % YDS TD. Long
McCarthy 186.94 66 84 0 78.57 % 848 6 54
McNamara 121.68 14 25 1 56.00 % 180 1 61
The reason Cade is hurt is because he took sacks McCarthy runs away from.
Your arguments are lame.
The stuff about the O line blocking better for McCarthy than it did for McNamara because Harbaugh poisoned their thinking is even lamer.
DeleteActually, it's off the charts lame.
Roanman
The QB change was made so the team would be better than last year. It is not better than last year. But that us nonsense to you. You say there should be no comparing .To you it is nonsense to expect the team to be better than last year .Maryland has a worse defense than last year. Nut Michigan didn't look better against that defense than last year. Nut saying that is nonsense .The team doesn't have to be better than last year, right? Michigan dominated Iowa last year, but was not this year. But that doesnt matter to you, even though Iowa has one of the worst offenses innall of college football . But so what. Pay no attention to what is really happening .Just jump on that JJ hype train, and keep hanging on to thet "higher ceiling".
DeleteThis is too hard for you . i don't want to pretend with you that the team is better than last year. And you want to coast along and not think .
I need to move along now .
I get it, add this to the narrative: reality is nonsense.
DeleteThis team might not be better than last year, we lost 3 early round draft picks to the NFL, along with a dominant big back on offense, all of which changes things. I am also not convinced that Jones is a better right tackle than Stueber was, but we are better at QB with McCarthy dominating the competition with McNamara. And yes, your arguments are nonsense.
DeleteThat's me ... Roanman above.
DeleteI'll go one step further, in light of the difference in performance against THE SAME COMPETITION, any other decision by Harbaugh would amount to malpractice.
DeleteRoanman
@Anon 722
DeleteYou're still starting with a false premise:
"The QB change was made so the team would be better than last year"
The QB change was made to select the best QB in 2022.
You're allowed to think that was Cade and it was the right choice but comparing TEAMS is not the same thing as comparing QBs. The QB change was far from the only change.
Neither Cade nor JJ are able to replace Hutchinson, Ojabo, Hill, etc.
Nice writeup Thunder. I agree with all of it.
ReplyDelete"I wonder how deep Michigan could go into the tight end well before they got to someone who wouldn't play well"
If you were going for hyperbole or a simple "headline" you might say that "TEs don't matter" or perhaps "All TEs are good". And I think you'd probably be right.* TE is a lot like RB in the NFL level in terms of being a pretty low priority in salary and positional value (based on analytics). They are very similar.
However! A few notes specific to Michigan Football in 2022 that I think make it wise to hold 7 scholarship TEs and "only" 4 RBs on this here roster.
-This is an unusual year. We've got 4 departing vets (All, Schoonmaker, Honigford, Selzer) at the same time. That's awesome right now but not optimal for roster management. Having one eye on 2023 makes sense. 7 is too many most years, but makes sense for the moment.
-Next years TE room looks much thinner and very inexperienced. Unless All ends up deciding to redshirt and returns, we'll be down to 5 scholarship players (Loveland, Hibner, Hansen, Klein, freshman recruit). We should expect attrition but Bredeson will likely go on scholarship to offset that.
-Math. The base at TE is 2 and there's often 3 on the field at the same time. There's almost never more than 1 RB. 3 is more than 1 so you need more TEs than RBs on the field. It follows that there should be more scholarships there.
-Development time. It takes OL longer to develop than other positions because of physical development needs. TE is a hybrid between WR and OL. Because of the emphasis on blocking it also takes them longer than other positions too. Time means scholarships used for guys who won't play. This need is evident in the number of significant freshman contributors. Charbonnet, Evans, Edwards, and Corum were all recent examples at RB. It happens at TE too (e.g., All) but not nearly as often (on a per scholarship basis). Blocking is a bigger part of the job and thus a red-shirt TE is far more common and helpful than a red-shirt RB.
*All positions matter obviously but we're talking about relative importance between them. We're also speaking in generalities - there are always great players that can't possible be replaced - but how frequent are these exceptions? General and relative - not absolute.
In 2023 I think Michigan would be better off having 5 at each spot and consider grad transfers at both spots.
Delete-At RB, with Corum gone, you can make a strong case for 5 scholarships. Edwards and Stokes should be a good duo, but Dunlap is in getting-late-early territory.
-At TE a lot depends on All, if he comes back. Without All there isn't a clear favorite for in-line TE and the only proven blocker is currently a walk-on. Bredeson is an asset but I'm not sure you trust him as an inline TE1 yet. Loveland needs time but looks very promising. He can at least flex but that might not be enough for Harbaugh. I haven't seen enough from Hibner or Hansen to have much of a feeling one way or the other. Klein sounds like a project.
Beyond 2023
-There's nothing inherently wrong with 5 backs sometimes but 4 works better if you've got a couple guys you feel really confident.
-6 TEs seems like a good Harbaugh number knowing that a couple are going to be in development
-Walk-ons can support both these spots depth needs pretty regularly and those kids should be rewarded with playing time and opportunity whenever possible.
Remember when some other nameless and for the most part better forgotten guy was assuring us that we had way too many tight ends and that no "modern offense" has two tight ends on the field at the same time and three is unimaginable, what would you do with them all?
DeleteDid I say that? If so I forgot. I should have had more faith in Harbaugh. JH FTW.
DeleteWindycityblue couldn't comprehend a use for all the TEs.
DeleteHe also wanted to fire Harbaugh because he was incapable of beating OSU. He probably still wants to fire Harbaugh for losing to Georgia.
DeleteI will admit I grew skeptical of the TE heavy offense after 2017-2020 myself but paired with an excellent OL it seems to be effective.
People above wanting to dismiss Sparty are making a big mistake. They are dangerous to us. Especially with us featuring a crew of linebackers that can be had. They will likely be down to beating us to salvage any part of this season, and as such will be coming with all the hate they can find in their hearts. They will be playing hard, desperate and dirty football, in front of a 60/40 crowd.
ReplyDeleteHope they're broken, don't count on it.
Roanman
@Roanman
DeleteYou're right - they will be desperate and have nothing to lose.
But so did we when we played Ohio State in 2017, 2014, 2013, 2010, 2009, and 2008. Our guys were feisty in a few of those, but all of them were losses.
There's a pretty high chance that MSU will be feisty too. But it's also likely they will lose.
Is it too early too be too confident of a win over against MSU? History says yes. The eye test says no. Right now the Maryland Terps and Illinois Nu-Badgers look like tougher opponents.
I would also bet 80/20 is closer than 60/40 this year. MSU fans know what's coming and it's not Tuck.
Mi St nay win only 2 more ganes .Thry will miss a Bowl Game .
DeleteI agree, Roanman. Michigan should have won against MSU the past two years and didn't. It's rarely an easy game.
Delete