RUSH OFFENSE vs. MSU RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is tied at #7 in yards per game (241.71) nationally. Coincidentally, UAB has the exact same number of attempts (293) and yards (1,692) this season. Bell cow running back Blake Corum has 901 yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, and backup Donovan Edwards went wild against Penn State two weeks ago and now averages 7.1 yards/carry with 4 touchdowns this season. The offensive line has noticeably improved since the beginning of the season, even with Karsen Barnhart taking over at right tackle for the injured Trente Jones. Michigan State is #80 in rushing defense (153.3 yards allowed/game) and gives up a statistically mediocre (#65 nationally ) 4.0 yards per game. One of their best defensive players, nose tackle Jacob Slade (6'4", 305), missed four games earlier this year, but he returned for the game against Wisconsin on October 15. Sophomore linebacker Cal Haladay (6'1", 230) leads the team with 58 tackles, and cornerback Kendell Brooks (6'0", 215) is second with 57. Former Wolverine Ben VanSumeren is third on the team with 53 stops. The advantage here is clearly Michigan's.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. MSU PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #74 in passing (231.9 yards/game), averages 8.7 yards per attempt (tied for #19), and is #11 in passing efficiency. Starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy has completed 77.1% of his passes for 1,297 yards, 9 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Ronnie Bell leads the team with 35 catches for 429 yards, but he has just 1 score on the year. Tight end Luke Schoonmaker was averaging almost 7 catches per game for the three weeks prior to the Penn State game, but the Nittany Lions held him to 0 receptions. Michigan is tied for #23 in sacks allowed per game (1.29). Michigan State is tied at #42 in sacks (2.43 per game), led by senior UNLV transfer DE/LB Jacoby Windmon (6'2", 250). The secondary for MSU has been rather abysmal. They have just 2 interceptions on the season, and one of those came from Windmon. The Spartans are #110 in passing defense (269 yards allowed/game), #114 in yards per attempt allowed (8.2), and #122 in passing efficiency defense. After facing two MAC teams to start the season (in which MSU didn't allow a TD or record an interception), the Spartans have allowed 3.2 passing touchdowns per game in the Big Ten.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. MSU RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #5 in rush defense (85.9 yards allowed/game) and #7 in yards allowed per carry (2.88). Four out of seven teams have failed to hit 100 rushing yards as a team. Inside linebackers Junior Colson (49 tackles) and Michael Barrett (31) lead the team in stops, followed closely by nose tackle Mazi Smith with 27, which is kind of ridiculous. They're #18 in TFL yardage despite having fewer tackles for loss than anyone else in the top 27; in other words, they're setting teams back in chunks, not just 1- or 2-yard increments. Meanwhile, Michigan State is #115 in rushing yardage (106 yards/game) and #99 in yards per carry (3.7). Running back Jalen Berger (6'1", 215) is a Wisconsin transfer who averages 4.59 yards per carry overall, but in Big Ten play, he's averaging just 3.32 yards/carry on 34 attempts. The second leading rusher is Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard, but he hast lost time to Elijah Collins (6'1", 215) recently; Collins had 14 carries for 43 yards and 1 touchdown two weeks ago against Wisconsin. The Spartans are #21 in TFLs allowed per game at 4.14.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. MSU PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #5 in pass defense, too (164.1 yards allowed/game), and they're #3 in passing efficiency defense. With just 5 touchdowns allowed, 4 interceptions, and 5.1 yards per attempt allowed, they've been rock solid for the most part. They currently sit at #12 in sacks (24), paced by edges Mike Morris (5.0) and Eyabi Okie (3.0). On the back end, cornerback D.J. Turner II and nickel Mike Sainristil each have 4 pass breakups, while safety Rod Moore leads the team with 2 interceptions. The Spartans are #66 in passing offense (242.9 yards/game) and #53 inn passing efficiency. They're #73 in yards per attempt at 7.3. Junior quarterback Payton Thorne (6'2", 210) is completing 65.4% of his interceptions for 1,499 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions this season. They do have a few talented receivers, led by Keon Coleman (6'4", 215) with 31 catches for 393 yards and 5 touchdowns. Senior wideouts Jayden Reed (6'0", 190) and Tre Mosley (6'2", 198) have combined for 55 catches, 599 yards, and 6 touchdowns. They're #43 in sacks allowed (12). The interior of MSU's offensive line is the piece that really drags down the whole offense.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Players from the State of Michigan are too many to list
- MSU players recruited by Michigan include: RB Jalen Berger, WR Germie Bernard, DE Khris Bogle, OT Spencer Brown, TE Maliq Carr, OL Dallas Fincher, LB Cal Haladay, WR Tyrell Henry, S Jaden Mangham, CB Ameer Speed, S Dillon Tatum, DT Alex VanSumeren, LB Ben VanSumeren
- MSU DT Alex VanSumeren was a one-time commitment to Michigan, and brother Ben played RB/LB for the Wolverines
PREDICTION
- Michigan 41, Michigan State 17
From your keyboard ...
ReplyDeleteRemembering always that this game is only about the hitting.
Roanman
I will be very unhappy if the score is that close.
ReplyDeleteWhy? The spread is 23
ReplyDelete34-13 here
ReplyDeleteIt should be a blowout, but we all know better
I predict 29-7 ;-)
ReplyDeleteJake Moody is a terrific asset to the team, but when your kicker scores more than everyone else (5FG x 3 = 15pts + 2XP = 17 points vs. 12 for Corum's two TDs) it's a sign something is not quite right, especially against a team like MSU.
Yes, a W, but it would have been more comforting to see two, and maybe three of those FGs be TDs.
Waiting for the Anon who blames JJ ... I don't fault the QB when the primary Receiver's route only takes him to the 3yd line! We have ... issues in the RedZone, which should not happen with this OL, Corum as a runner or Edwards as a weapon ...we don't scheme our receivers open very well anyway, but in the RZ? We have some things to fix
DeleteI would love to see a sensible and civil discussion of what's happening in Michigan's red zone game now, and what can be done to correct it. I'm not football-savvy enough to know if the scheme is fine and the players are breaking down on execution, or the other way around. But to your point, something is not quite right there.
DeleteThe QB threw to the receiver that had two defenders on him.
DeleteYou say that was the right choice? Play design didn't set it up for him to do that.
"I would love to see a sensible and civil discussion of what's happening in Michigan's red zone game now"
DeleteThe red zone offense overall last season seemed better. The discussion could include that point in it.
@Anon1250, Ronnie Bell is our number one receiver, and the primary read on that 3d & Goal ... his route took him to the 3yd line
DeleteThat's not on the QB
I think the sensible and civil thing to do is ask if RZ is a problem or its just a thing that happens sometimes. Seems like we just went through this exercise last year to me.
DeleteFair question
DeleteThis would be a great time to look into the data: what was our TD percentage in the RZ last year? What is it this year? Same question, but narrowing it down to B1G opponents
I can do some digging later, but my guess is that our last 3-4 games reveal a challenge getting six, esp considering the OL, RBs and mobile QB we have
Well, McCarthy alluded to red zone issues in the post-game press conference, so I have to assume it's not just us wondering about it.
DeleteMcCarthy, Corum, Jansen, VanBergen ... it's fair criticism for an otherwise fantastic season
DeleteI'm sure I'm not the only one who remembers this same concern last year:
Deletehttps://www.maizenbrew.com/2021/11/12/22775810/michigan-football-red-zone-offense-penn-state-jim-harbaugh-cade-mcnamara
"Michigan has been able to get into the red area aplenty, ranking seventh in red-zone offense. However, as good as that statistic sounds there’s another that goes entirely in the opposite direction — Michigan ranks 88th in red-zone touchdown percentage."
Sound familiar? It was a problem...until it wasn't. A few weeks later it was a strength.
https://www.maizenbrew.com/football/22825294/michigan-wolverines-football-red-zone-execution-jim-harbaugh-big-ten-2021-season
"Over the final four games, Michigan scored touchdowns on 17-of-19 possessions inside the red zone. While balanced play calling and overall execution were catalysts to the improved success, the biggest key was better starting position inside the 20-yard line."
Yesterday's red-zone performance was frustrating - I'm not arguing with that, nor am I arguing that the players should wave it off as nothing. But we are fans, not players, and we can and should have a different perspective.
DeleteI'm sure one can speculate on this or that "fix" - sure, let's work on execution and play-calling in all facets - but the bottomline is that this wasn't a problem area to focus on for the 2021 team despite what fans said.
"what's happening in Michigan's red zone game now" is we are 15th in the country, even better than last year. Michigan's red zone efficiency (FGs & TDs) is up from 90% last year to 93% this year.
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct
In terms of TDs they are 28/44 this year, less impressive than the overall success, just like last year. Last year, per the article above, we started the year 25/45. So this year's team is scoring TDs in the red zone at a higher rate than last years was at a similar point in the season.
Fans can worry about what ever they want to worry about but it seems to me we should remember the very recent past and look to avoid making up problems where there might not be any.
Cade McNamara threw 2 nice TDs last year. The one dropped in to Roman Wilson was so beautifully accurate it was like the bomb dropped in the vent by Luke Skywalker in the first Star Wars.
DeleteCorrection. I just watched highlights of Cade MCNamara. He threw 3 TDs against Michigan St last year.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteCorrection. The Roman Wilson TD was against Penn St .McNamara had 3 TDs against Michigan St.
DeleteIt was a mistake t o replace McNamara with McCarthy .The passing game was better last year.
LOL. Well the passing stats and our record say otherwise.
DeleteLooking forward to Thunder's take on RZ
ReplyDeleteOur OL is better this year (IMO)
Corum is better than JJ (IMO), and is now moving piles along w/the jukes & ability to have defenders slide off him
JJ is a mobile QB, w/a stronger & more accurate arm
Is Erik All the missing link? Setting aside his hands in 2020, there was a case to be made last year that his work as a blocker was a near-top asset for our offense ... Schoon has been really good, but All was a fantastic blocker
*oops, Corum is better than Hassan (IMO)
DeleteI share these opinions - and that's why the offense is better. Missing for what?
DeleteI'm terms of RB the bigger question, since Corum was prominent last year, is HH vs Edwards.
Related to the red-zone "issues" is that Jake Moody is one helluva player and a significant factor in this team being 8-0.
ReplyDeleteMoody has been busy 2 games in a row and for some folks that's a problem. But it's also 2 games where our defense was looking exceptionally sturdy on most downs. Playing conservative is Harbaugh's nature but it's also probably the right call in context. Especially with a kicker who has gotten better with age.
Moody has 21 FGA in 8 games this year vs 25 in 14 games lat year so his per game attempts are up from 1.8 to 2.6. Contrary to popular opinion that's not a red zone thing - he has as many 50+ yard attempts this year (3) as the previous 4 years combined, and has already hit his career high in 40+ yard attempts in a season (in 8 games vs 14 last year).
Money Moody has always been money from short distance. Counting extra points his kicks from <40 were 46/50 in his first 3 years and 124/125 the last 2 years. But Moody seems to have substantially extended his range beyond where he was earlier in his career (1 FG made over 43 yards in 3 seasons).
For those wondering why a Lou Groza winner might come back to college for another year - the fact that he had made just one 50 yarder in his 4 year career and had a so-so track record from 40+ could have played into it. Going 4/6 on long field goals this year, including two from 50+ and the personal record of 54 yesterday can help answer the NFL's questions.
Something to celebrate IMO
I don't think anyone thinks Moody's production is a problem in and of itself. It's great to have a kicker that's as reliable as Moody is. No question about that. The concern is what may lie under Moody's numbers; that is, that Michigan's ability to score 7 rather than 3 may not materialize in key games where the difference is a loss.
DeleteI recall back during the dark years of either Rodriguez or Hoke, Michigan had a kickoff return guy that set some record for most number of yards on return. I recall thinking that's not a good stat to have, because it means Michigan is receiving a lot of kickoffs, which means the other teams are scoring a lot, which was true. Similarly, it's not a good story when a punter sets a record for number of punts in a season. Or when the QB leads the team in rushing.
You mentioned last year it was an issue until it wasn't. Well, I think we can all agree we hope very much that it soon won't be an issue.
Moody's accuracy (which we all agree is a good thing) may be affecting decision-making. A coach with a wobbly kicker may have to think to themselves (well I've got a 60% chance of 3 points here) or I could go for it. Harbaugh can say to himself I've got a 90% chance. So that may affect how many risks he is willing to take inside the 30.
DeleteI don't actually think it was an issue last year at all.
Some folks will say "well we fixed it" -- and maybe they are right that some sort of switch got flipped mid year, but I'm inclined to say that some of this stuff is a combination of randomness and game context stuff. Reorder the games in the schedule and would anything be different?
Kicking a bunch of FGs was the right move against MSU this year and it was the right move against Indiana, Nebraska, and others last year. Our defense was largely in control in those games (notably that was not true against MSU last year). Against OSU and Georgia that's probably not going to get it done - and Moody had 1 attempt.
Sometimes folks will craft a narrative about things because of when they happen but they're often not true - and kids in program will tell you that. It's OK to be skeptical.
My biggest gripe from the game was the Corum getting too many carries. Corum's last 7 carries (after the last TD) should have been split between Edwards and especially Stokes. Not worrying about injuries for Corum specifically but he already had over 25 carries in the game that was decided. That's just putting a key player at risk IMO.
ReplyDeleteI agree, which leaves us to speculate as to why he was still in the game. Are the coaches giving Corum more carries so he can get more yards and be in the Heisman discussion? Or are they concerned about an Edwards or Stokes fumble?
DeleteI think Harbaugh wanted to run up the score, and that Corum would eventually break one ... yeah, that's a risk
DeleteYeah - it's a pattern with Harbaugh that he takes a long time to call a game won and call in the second team. I don't really think it's a crime against humanity that he wants to run it up (I bet many of the players do too) but it's not a great trait IMO.
Deletehttps://michigan.rivals.com/news/where-michigan-ranks-in-every-major-statistical-category-after-week-9
ReplyDeleteRed zone offense: 12th (93.2%)
According to Josh Henschke.
Roanman
That counts a red zone "score" for calculating percent as either a FG or a TD, doesn't it? Perhaps a better measure would be some combination of percent success and average points achieved.
DeleteNot sure. I didn't care enough to look. Were it me, I'd calculate total points per "Red Zone" entry, and compare that number.
DeleteI give some credence to concerns from guys like Thunder when they express opinions about Red Zone issues, but by and large I view conversations about play calling in general as fans having fun being fans and have difficulties taking it seriously.
If the play scores, it was a great one. If it doesn't it was faulty. That's true on the surface and is the eternal fan position, but it takes nothing into account on the other side of the ball. The DC might have been good/got lucky on that play. You can't even really fully see what they are doing on either side of the ball after a live view and one replay. Then there are the limits of television in general, camera angles and whatnot.
It's fun for here, but don't nobody outside of the coaching staff really know. There are exceptions to that of course, but not often.
Roanman
See below for "points per red zone entry."
DeleteOf course all this is fun for fans ... this what fans do: they re-hash the game just played as they wait for the next game coming up. There's no question the coaching staff is more on top of this than any of us fans. I'll refer back to what I noted above: J.J. McCarthy made a point of commenting on red zone scoring in his post-game comments, so it's not *just* us fans musing about it.
These kinds of discussions can be fun if it's done with respect and civility.
I think execution is mostly execution and red zone doesn't substantially change the calculus all that often. Kicking ability does affect some decisions that could take place to tilt the math towards TD attempts. Otherwise in red zone, you are more reliant on your short yardage package but I think the stats there say Michigan is kicking butt.
DeleteI noodled around with red zone numbers for four teams: Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee, and Michigan. Two things I wanted to tease out:
ReplyDelete(1) Average points produced from red zone visit
(2) Scoring from outside the red zone
Some teams are lethal and score from outside the red zone, so "just" red zone numbers might not be indicative.
AVERAGE POINTS PRODUCED PER ATTEMPT FROM RED ZONE
Ohio State - 6.1 points
Tennessee - 6.1 points
Georgia - 5.7 points
Michigan - 5.3 points
Of these four teams, Michigan generates the least number of points per trip to the red zone. Michigan averages 5.3 trips to the red zone through eight games, so that 0.8 point differential per trip x 5.3 trips = 4.4 points left on the field compared to the rate Ohio State scores from the RZ.
TDs SCORED FROM OUTSIDE RED ZONE
Ohio State - 33 of 52 TDs from Red Zone = 63.5% from RZ
Tennessee - 36 of 52 TDs from Red Zone = 69.2% from RZ
Michigan - 28 of 39 TDs from Red Zone = 71.8% from RZ
Georgia - 33 of 41 TDs from Red Zone = 80.5% from RZ
Ohio State puts a lot of TDs on the board from *beyond* the red zone. And they also yield 6.1 points for those trips they do score from the RZ. Michigan is less explosive from beyond the red zone than OSU, but more so than Georgia. Georgia seems to grind it down to the RZ, then yields 5.7 points from there.
This analysis does NOT take the defense into account. Georgia is the #2 scoring defense (Michigan is #3); Ohio State is #10. This analysis also does not take into account how many of those TDs were "garbage time / run-up the score" TDs, vs. heat-of-the-game TDs.
This is great analysis. However, given Michigan's first 3 opponents are cupcakes, we should probably analyze only Big Ten games data. Smaller sample size but probably a better reflection of the situation.
DeleteYeah, it was a rather quick back-of-the-napkin type analysis. Perhaps if I have time today I can dig further.
DeleteFor conference games:
DeleteRED ZONE VISITS
Georgia: 26 visits, 26 scores (100%), 20 TDs (76.9%), Avg RZ Points 6.1
Ohio State: 28 visits, 27 scores (96.4%), 21 TDs (75%), Avg RZ Points 5.9
Michigan: 24 visits, 21 scores (87.5%), 12 TDs (50%), Avg RZ Points 4.6
Tennessee: 22 visits, 21 scores (95.5%), 16 TDs (72.7%), Avg RZ Points 5.8
That's a sample size of 5, but it shows in more contrast the points yielded per trip to the red zone by team. The "explosiveness" (TDs scored from beyond the RZ) is close to the same as all games.
This is what I was hoping for: conference RZ TD%
DeleteMICHIGAN at 50% sounds about right, and well below the contending playoff teams ... But, to Lank's point, it's a long season. JJ knows it, and I'm sure Weiss, Moore - Harbaugh have work in mind
Wait ... you're saying Harbaugh / Weiss / Moore don't take their cues from us fans here? :-)
DeleteYeah, the coaches know WAY more about what's going on than us. They're looking at specific plays and analyzing things down to individual players' actions.
This is awesome! Hats off to Anon 937.
DeleteIf we take this at face value - there is ~1 point deficiency per red zone opportunity you're talking about up to a TD per game difference. That's something like up to 2 FGs that shoulda been TDs in a game, on average. 7 or 8 points per game that Michigan is giving away, theoretically. Which is significant.
But - I agree with the points being made above - this is a sample size of 5 and so can be wobbly. Conference/Non-Conference works for Michigan but probably not for Georgia whose toughest game of the year was outside of conference (Oregon) and faced Vanderbilt - who is worse than Colorado State or Hawaii - in their conference.
But even if you look at the full season and ignore the differences in strength of opposing defenses entirely and take these numbers at face value - we have to admit that it changes dramatically from game to game. We saw this last year.
So how predictive is this? How much is indicative of a problem and how much is just contextual noise?
Moody has been (perhaps too) busy the last couple weeks but the only other game where he attempted more than 2 FGs all year was Hawaii.
Anyway - great stats Anon. I'm still skeptical this is a problem and not just something that just happened the last couple weeks.