RUSH OFFENSE vs. PENN STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #19 in rush offense (212.3 yards/game) and #14 in yards per carry, based largely on the vision, elusiveness, and toughness of Blake Corum, who led the country in rushing touchdowns (11) until Pitt's Israel Abanikanda popped off with 6 scores last weekend to bring his total to 12. Backup Donovan Edwards has yet to really break out this season and had 7 carries for just 15 yards last week against Indiana. Penn State is #5 in rush defense (79.8 yards allowed/game) and allows just 2.96 yards per carry, which is #15 in the nation. Senior safety Ji'Ayir Brown (5'11", 202 lbs.) leads the team with 18 tackles, followed by freshman inside linebacker Abdul Carter (6'2", 233) with 17, but there are twelve players with between 10-17 tackles. Junior defensive end Adisa Isaac (6'4", 233) paces the Nittany Lions with 4.5 tackles for loss. They are a good defense without a lot of standouts, but Michigan hasn't been able to create much in the run game that Blake Corum hasn't created for himself.
Advantage: Penn State
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. PENN STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #69 in passing offense (246.3 yards/game) and #12 in passing efficiency. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy threw his first interception on a tipped ball last week, but other than a couple questionable arm-moving-forward-when-hit kinds of reps, he has taken care of the ball pretty well and leads the nation in completion percentage. He's averaging 9.6 yards per attempt and has 9 passing touchdowns. Wide receiver Ronnie Bell (30 catches, 390 yards, 1 touchdown) and tight end Luke Schoonmaker (23 catches, 229 yards, 2 TD) have emerged as McCarthy's two favorite targets, but wideouts Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson each have 3 touchdowns on 12 receptions each. Michigan is tied for #33 in sacks allowed per game (1.33). Meawhile, Penn State is tied at #64 in sacks per game (2.4), led by freshman defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton (6'5", 253) with 3. Penn State is #102 in passing defense (262 yards allowed/game), but at 5.8 yards per attempt, they're tied at #12, and they're #7 in passing efficiency defense. They have given up 5 touchdowns and made 5 interceptions. Safeties Jy'Ayir Brown and Zakee Wheatley (6'2", 190) both have 2 picks. I think this phase of the game may come down to whether Roman Wilson returns from injury or not, because he's needed to stretch the field as a big play threat.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. PENN STATE RUSH OFFENSE
The Wolverines are #7 in rush defense (81.7 yards allowed/game) and #6 in yards allowed per carry (2.62). Inside linebacker Junior Colson (44 tackles) has taken a commanding lead in stops, and closest to him comes fellow linebacker Michael Barrett (30). Edge defenders Mike Morris (7 tackles for loss) and Jaylen Harrell (4.5) have been very good against the run, as has nose tackle Mazi Smith (23 tackles, 2.5 TFLs). Penn State true freshman running back Nick Singleton (6'0", 219) has been one of the surprises of the early going, averaging 7.35 yards per carry and ranking #7 in the Big Ten in rushing yards (463). Penn State is #33 in rushing offense (192.6 yards/game) and #34 in yards per carry (4.94). Backup Kaytron Allen (5'11", 201) has 34 carries for 197 yards and 1 touchdown over the past two games. Penn State's center and right side of the line are all fourth or fifth year players, but left tackle Olu Fashanu (6'6", 321) and left guard Landon Tengwall (6'6", 332) are younger and largely inexperienced. This will be Michigan's biggest test of the season, and I think PSU will have some success running the ball.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. PENN STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #10 in pass defense (165.3 yards allowed/game), #4 in yards allowed per attempt (5.1), and #6 in passing efficiency defense. Cornerback Gemon Green has allowed a couple short completions, but he has been very good overall. Safety Rod Moore leads the team with 2 interceptions, and cornerback D.J. Turner II has mostly been very good except for a couple poor pass interference penalties, but those things are going to happen. Michigan is surprisingly #5 in sacks (3.67) despite losing two first round talents at edge rusher, and the leading sack guys are Mike Morris (5.0) and Eyabi Okie (3.0). Penn State is #62 in passing offense (251 yards/game) and #50 in passing efficiency. Quarterback Sean Clifford (6'2", 212) is a four-year starter who is completing 62% of his passes with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His top targets are wideout Parker Washington (5'10", 212), who has 20 catches for 285 yards, and out-of-nowhere tight end Brenton Strange (6'3", 247), who has 15 catches for 231 yards and 4 scores. Penn State is #25 in giving up sacks at 1.4 per game.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Penn State players recruited by Michigan include: QB Drew Allar, LB Jamari Budden, OL Jimmy Christ, CB Cristian Driver, DT Dvon Ellies, OL Olu Fashanu, S Mehki Flowers, RB Devyn Ford, CB Daequan Hardy, DE Adisa Isaac, TE Theo Johnson, CB Kalen King, LB Kobe King, DE Rodney McGraw, CB Joey Porter Jr., WR Kaden Saunders, LB Jonathan Sutherland, OL Landon Tengwall, QB Christian Veilleux
- Penn State players from the State of Michigan include: LB Jamari Budden (Belleville), CB Kalen King (Cass Tech), LB Kobe King (Cass Tech), S Jaylen Reed (Detroit King)
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On November 13, 2021, Michigan won at Penn State by a score of 21-17
- TE Erick All caught the game-winning 47-yard touchdown pass
- With RB Blake Corum out due to injury, RB Hassan Haskins carried the load almost by himself with 31 carries for 156 yards
- WR Roman Wilson caught 3 passes for 31 yards, including 2 touchdowns
- Michigan sacked Penn State QB Sean Clifford 7 total times, including 3 by Aidan Hutchinson and 2 by David Ojabo
PREDICTION
- Michigan 31, Penn State 26
We're bullying them, but have to finish!
ReplyDeleteSeriously, this feels like The Game from last year ... OL is just dominating!
ReplyDeleteTeam is better this year. MSU is on the clock.
ReplyDeleteCall me crazy, but I think our D is better coached
DeleteOur offense seems better than it was midway through the 2021 season. Today looked like 2021's Game 12
What's changed on offense that might cause you to think that?
DeleteIt might be the quarterback who now causes people to have to account for him in our run game while completing over 70% of his passes, although maybe it's simply 5 or 6 practices with Fred Jackson.
With regards to the defense, coached or called? Both?
Roanman
Our offense struggled to move the ball against rutger, couldn't pass against UW, and just didn't seem dominant until ohio. Sure, the OL won the award for best unit, but it wasn't obvious until ohio. This year we have a QB who can make all the throws, he can run, we have two HR RBs who can get to the house with the XL holes caved in by our OL ... it just didn't seem this convincing two weeks before Halloween last year
DeleteOn D, we went from Hutch and the making of a 1stRd Ojabo ... and a 1stRd Safety in Dax, but the ball got moved on us, especially with tempo. Under minter, he's figuring things out, and - without a stud (let alone 3), he adjusting to offenses and shutting them down, pass & run
We just kicked the crap out of a top10 team, and put the nation on notice: last year was no fluke!
Or, maybe I'm caught up in the moment!
I think the offense is better for a few reasons.
DeleteMore experience - add up the returning starters and rotational backups and +1 for each and you get a pretty nice number.
Olu - Vastardis is good but he wasn't shoving people forward the way Olu does in short yardage. Dude has been a model pro since arriving. There was some doubt but we've upgraded.
RT replacement - Steuber was good and mean but Jones/Barnhart have stepped up to perform at similar levels with a higher ceiling/talent level.
RB - I love HH as much as the next guy but I never worried about losing him with Corum and Edwards. Those 2 are bigger playmakers and with an extra year of coaching for them, there's been no back slide.
The Gattis effect - I'm a bigger fan of Gattis than some folks but I think where he really excels is coaching WRs and that's something you're not going to see lost in one offseason. Ask against after Bell/Wilson/Johnson move on.
and I saved the biggest and most obvious reason for last -- QB.
We can talk about JJ needing to improve his risk avoidance and learning to throw the ball away faster or whatever but kid can flat out play. We spent most of last year with one hand tied behind our backs and now we've got a two hands and a double edged blade.
You might be caught up in the moment on D.
DeleteBoth Harbaughs consider McDonald above Minter. There's a few holes to pick on with this defense - at LB especially - that weren't there last year. And the A+ talent hasn't been replaced (no offense to Turner, Colson, or Morris but they probably aren't 1st rounders). There's upgrades (DT and CB are better) but Okie isn't Ojabo and Morris isn't quite Hutch (4th down goalline run probably gets shut down by AH).
Sainristil makes me happy every week but I still don't know if he's going to hold up against the OSU bomb squad. This might be over worrying but until we play an elite O I'm going to worry there is a Brown/Durkin ceiling that we're going to bump our heads on the way down to Columbus.
But looking at this schedule we won't know until we know.
I may be
DeleteBut PennSt is no MAC team, and has the same level talent as us on O. But we made them seem like an overwhelmed FCS offense - just one 1st Down in the first half! They had nothing, and I wouldn't be surprised to see sparty & Illinois suffer that same fate. Could our D stop ohio, Tennessee or a more advanced pass O than Maryland? I don't know, but we're looking good week in, and week out adjusting to what our opponents do best
Again, I just didn't 'feel' that in Oct 2021 ... dang emotions
I think PSU is a very good team - top 25 for sure - and their skill position talent probably is on par with Michigan's. But the OL situation is night and day. That is why they are a top 50ish offense and we have a top 10 offense. We have advantages in talent, experience, continuity, and coaching on the OL.
DeleteSo in regards to our D, I'm just saying we shouldn't get too excited when the best offense we've seen is Maryland. I think this is a spot where the lessons of Durkin and Brown can't be forgotten. They dominated Maryland and then got cooked by OSU.
Against OSU last year our offense went off
"I had high hopes for this team but with how the team has looked the last 3 weeks I have literally been brought to tears.
ReplyDeleteSigned;
Typical UM fan"
Lol
DeleteRoanman
LOL. TBF - that Anon isn't exactly typical. Most of us trust our eyes, the stats, and the coaches and see McCarthy as an upgrade.
DeleteI think if you did a poll at the beginning of the season, most fans would have predicted 2 losses. We have to replace a few dudes on defense. Who would have thought that our defense might be better than last year?
ReplyDeleteI expected 9-3 like the consensus (non-fan/Vegas) view and am happy to say I think 11-1 is more likely than 10-2 at this point.
DeleteAs for the defense -- I'm not sure I'm ready to call it better. The best offense they've faced is Maryland (ranked 25). We don't have a wrecker like Hutch. I know, I know, I've been watching too but I'm not sure if the improvement in scheme and the "team effort" approach will hold up against OSU.
Hell of a win. I knew we were in great shape on drive 1 when I saw the holes the OL was making. CJ Stokes could have run for 200 yards yesterday. But luckily we have Corum and Edwards healthy and didn't have to fret over a freshman making a freshman mistake (though Edwards did fumble). Stokes still outrushed the more hyped 5-star in the PSU backfield.
ReplyDeleteDepth has been a HUGE benefit to Michigan this year. Our opening day starters at RT, TE, and QB are hurt and RG and WR have missed time too (among others). Having a veteran former starter in Barnhart to step in for Jones cannot be understated. Schoonmaker ascension was expected coming into the year and we knew Honigford was capable but Bredeson elevating into a prime role has also been huge for the O.
Make no mistake though - this was a good matchup for M. Porter can erase a high end WR but PSU used him on probably our 3rd most dangerous option. And Mustipher is a really good player but he's in there against Zinter and Olu. PSU is good but there are more than 10 teams that would give Michigan more trouble.