Saturday, November 19, 2022

Preview: Michigan vs. Illinois

 

RUSH OFFENSE vs. ILLINOIS RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #4 in rushing offense (251.4 yards/game) and #7 in rushing average (5.62 yards/carry). Heisman contender Blake Corum has 227 carries for 1,349 yards and 17 touchdowns. Backup Donovan Edwards (70 carries, 471 yards, 4 TD) got banged up last week, so his availability is in question, but freshman C.J. Stokes had a good showing last week with 8 carries for 68 yards in relief of Edwards. Michigan's offensive line has been beaten up a little bit with Jeffrey Persi, Giovanni El-Hadi, and Karsen Barnhart all logging big minutes last week in the absence of Ryan Hayes, Trevor Keegan, and Trente Jones, respectively. Illinois is #6 in rushing defense (85.9 yards allowed/game) and #5 in yards allowed per carry (3.02). The Fighting Illini are tied for #4 in rushing touchdowns allowed with just 5 so far this year. Senior LB Isaac Darkangelo (6'1", 230), sophomore DE Jer'zhan Newton (6'2", 295), and senior hybrid S/LB Jartavius Martin (6'0", 195) lead the team with 50, 49, and 48 tackles, respectively. The team is #37 in tackles for loss per game (6.4), led by Newton with 12 and sophomore DE Keith Randolph, Jr. (6'5", 305) with 11.
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for more.


PASS OFFENSE vs. ILLINOIS PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #96 in passing offense (208.9 yards/game) but #23 in passing efficiency and #32 in yards per attempt (8.1). It's a heavy run offense that relies on tight ends a little too heavily, as quarterback J.J. McCarthy has struggled to sync up with many of his wideouts on downfield routes. McCarthy's (69% completions, 14 TD, 2 INT) favorite targets have been WR Ronnie Bell (45 catches, 597 yards, 2 TD) and TE Luke Schoonmaker (30 catches, 315 yards, 2 TD), but Schoonmaker missed last week's game due to injury. The Wolverines are tied at #21 in sacks allowed per game (1.2). The Illini have an elite pass defense statistically, giving up the 5th fewest yards per game (161) and ranking #1 in passing efficiency defense. They have allowed 8 touchdowns while making 17 interceptions, the latter of which is tied for #1 in the country. Senior safeties Kendall Smith (6'1", 205) and Sydney Brown (6'0", 205) are tied for the team lead with 4 interceptions. Newton has 5.5 sacks, while freshman OLB Gabe Jacas (6'3", 265) and Randolph each have 4.0.
Advantage: Illinois

RUSH DEFENSE vs. ILLINOIS RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is the #1 rush defense in the country (72.7 yards allowed/game) and the 2.6 yards allowed per carry is #3. Linebackers Junior Colson and Michael Barrett are 1-2 in tackles with 67 and 41 respectively, with DE Kris Jenkins, Jr. coming in at #3 with 38. Edge Mike Morris leads the team with 11 tackles for loss, but he left last week's game late with an ankle injury. Five of the last six opponents have been held to 75 or fewer yards on the ground. Illinois is #41 in rushing offense (183.6 yards/game) and #74 in yards per carry (4.13). Star RB Chase Brown (5'11", 205) has 1,442 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns, but last week was his lowest rushing total of the season (98 yards on 23 attempts) and he left the game with an injury. It's unclear whether he will play on Saturday or not, but his chances appear better now than they were earlier in the week. The Illinois offensive line is pretty large with everyone except the center coming in at 6'5" and 315+; the center is 6'6" and 305. They run a variety of run schemes to give Brown as many different ways to succeed as possible.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. ILLINOIS PASS OFFENSE
Michigan has the #4 pass defense (160.1 yards allowed/game) and is tied with Illinois as the #2 pass defense in yards per attempt allowed (5.3). They're #2 in passing efficiency defense, right behind the Illini. The pass rush has been solid overall with Mike Morris notching 7.5 sacks to lead the team, but Morris's aforementioned leg injury may hold him out or at least slow him down. On the back end, safety Rod Moore leads the team with 3 interceptions, and cornerback Will Johnson has stepped up in a big way with the short absence of Gemon Green. Illinois QB Tommy DeVito (6'2", 210), a transfer from Syracuse, has completed 70% of his passes for 15 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He feeds the ball a lot to former quarterback Isaiah Williams (5'10", 180), who catches a lot of passes (64) but not for much yardage (8.6 yards/catch). Fellow WR Brian Hightower (6'3", 215) has 34 catches for 428 yards and 2 scores. The offensive line gives up 1.8 sacks per game, which is tied at #52 in the country. It's not an explosive offense through the air, but DeVito is accurate on short throws and can move the sticks with his legs (79 yards rushing with 4 TD).
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

  • Illinois players offered by Michigan include: LB Shammond Cooper, TE Luke Ford, RB Chase Hayden, WR Brian Hightower, QB Artur Sitkowski, WR Isaiah Williams
  • Illinois defensive line coach Terrance Jamison is the brother of former Michigan defensive end Tim Jamison
  • Former Michigan walk-on lineman Greg Froelich is a special teams analyst for Illinois
  • Former Michigan assistant S&C coach Tank Wright is the S&C coach for Illinois

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...

  • On October 12, 2019, Michigan beat Illinois 42-25
  • QB Shea Patterson completed 11/22 passes for 194 yards and 3 touchdowns
  • RB Hassan Haskins (125) and RB Zach Charbonnet (116) both surpassed 100 yards rushing

PREDICTION

  • Michigan 34, Illinois 14

45 comments:

  1. Prediction: this game makes the Nebraska contest seem exciting

    29-6, good guys

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  2. Wilson makes a one hand grab, and we get a weak flag

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  3. Heeeeeeey, where's all you JJ people?
    Tell me again he's better than Cade McNamara.

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    1. JJ hasn't played as well as most of us hoped. But statistically, he's better than Cade was. One on one in camp & during the OOC, he was much better ... just because he hasn't lived up to expectations doesn't make Cade retroactively better ...

      That said, our WRs have been awful. No separation & bad hands

      Our pass design doesn't help. We still have WRs running routes right next to ea other

      Play calling is questionable as well. How is 5th string walkon RB our primary target on 4th Down, on the drive after dropping an easy pass?


      11-0 is an amazing accomplishment. I'm going to CBus next week for The Game, and I'm more hopeful than I was I previous years ... but man, watching some games makes you wonder how much the weak schedule helped us out. Probably a lot

      Go Blue, beat ohio

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    2. He was, is and always will be a better QB than Cade McNamara.

      Roanman

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    3. It's someone elses fault, never JJ. It's the play calling. It's the receivers. You're a "never JJ-er".
      If you can watch JJ McCarthy play today, and still say he's better than McNamara, you are biased for no good reason. But go ahead and keep lying to yourself.

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    4. @Anon

      JJ is better. He'll be better even if/when we lose to OSU next week too.

      Cade is likely going to transfer away (per insiders) just like Charbonnet did - just like Milton did - because he knows his chances for winning a starting job are better elsewhere. I'd love to see him stick it out and battle like Stetson Bennett did - and Cade could easily be starter in 2024 if JJ turns pro after 2023 - but I can't fault him for seeking an easier situation.

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    5. You need to stop watching your fantasies about JJ McCarthy in your mind, and start looking at reality.

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    6. LOL. The kid is 11-0 as a QB. You're the guy needing to check on your fantasies. He's been solid all year. Why do you hate this kid so much?

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    7. You seem like you want Michigan to lose. what's wrong with you? Cade just had knee surgery. He can't play anyway. How can you be upset about being 11-0? When your guy can't even play?

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    8. AnonymousNovember 20, 2022 at 6:47 PM

      Please be coherent.

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    9. Anonymous November 20, 2022 at 6:08 PM

      You are living in a fantasy.

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    10. LOL again. Those guys just called you out in absolute correct fashion and you came back with nothing. Once again, you reveal your own weak, miserable self.

      Roanman

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    11. The hardcore hype train comin through! Toot toot!

      McNamara is better than McCarthy. Just cope with it.

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    12. I've presented every argument there is. No need for me to repeat any of iit. If you can watch what happened on Satuday, and the rest of this year, and still say JJ McCarthy is better than Cade McNamara then you are biased, and God himself can't change your mind.
      You want to stay full speed ahead on your hype train.
      Hopefully Corum and Edwards are ready to go Saturday. Michigan will NEED the run game. Because JJ McCarthy is immature and not ready to carry the team.

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    13. The McNamara hype train is headed to a different station. Enjoy the ride.

      I'll be cheering for him too, just like I'll be cheering for Milton.

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  4. We got bailed out by the ref. The second half is the strongest argument for Corum’s Heisman candidacy. We became a very average offense without Corum.

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    1. Bailed out? Defensive pass interference probably should have been called on that play.

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  5. Sorry Lank. It is not true that we could replace Corum with Gash/Stokes and get the same yardage. Their yards per carry may even look similar but the effect on the offense is night and day. With Corum, we can still succeed running our running play even though the defense expects it. Not with the back-up RBs.

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    1. wait, you mean there's someone saying Gash and Stokes are interchangeable with Corum?

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    2. That's because Blake Corum matters. He's special.

      Also - CJ Stokes is a bit disappointing to me. The coaches don't trust him on 3rd downs/passing downs which was a lot of yesterday because they were playing from behind and against the clock. That happens with freshman fairly commonly so it's not a long-term worry but it limits him. He's a better runner than Gash IMO.

      Still - acknowledging the above - after the first scripted drive and really after the first Blake run - the Illinois D was doing a good job stopping our running attack. Blake averaged something like 4ypc while Gash/Stokes averaged 3. That's what a RB mattering looks like.

      Here's another outcome-focused perspective. In one half with Blake and one half without Blake the number of scoring drives were 4 to 1. The 4 came without Blake. 1st half with Blake, Michigan punted 3 times and fumbled. 2nd half without Blake, Michigan punted once and had a turnover on downs in Illinois territory on the "free play" that wasn't.

      So, while I share your FEELINGS, the outcomes on the ground can certainly be argued - even with the best Michigan RB of my lifetime, and even with his top backup out.

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    3. We won the first half by 4pts ... the second half we were outscored by 1

      We had twice as many rush yards in the 1st Half, and - despite trying to mount a comeback, less total yardage

      As a TrFr, Stokes is playing a bigger role than Higdon did, but it was obvious we needed more. Gash just isn't it, at all

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    4. Corum doesn't have anything with the defense giving up 5 times as many points in the second half as the first.

      We won the game with Corum playing less than a half.

      One scripted drive and then punt punt punt turnover -- all with Corum. Second half it was 4 scoring drives.

      Corum probably turns some of those FGs into TDs (IMO) but there's those that think we have problems in the red zone with Corum so....

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    5. Looking at just scoring drives between first half and second half is misleading. Michigan has 5 drives in the first half. 3 of them went for more than 50 yards. The last one (where Corum fumbled) would have been a score if Corum's injury didn't occur. In the second half, only 1 out of 7 drives went for more than 50 yards. We just happened to have a short field in the second half.

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    6. @Lank, with Corum out, the TOP was flipped. Our D was gassed, having been body-blowed by the Illini ... giving up two TDs in 2022 is not a bad outing, esp when your offense is getting none

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    7. When did our D get gassed? Was it during the 1st half when Corum played? Or was it in the 3rd Quarter?

      Illinois 2 touchdown drives in the 3rd quarter (3 min long and 1 min long) where sandwiched between a 5 minute Michigan drive (the longest drive of the game BTW in TOP). Michigan won TOP in the 3rd Q (where they were outscored 14-3)

      They also won TOP in the game as a whole - not that this matters in 2022. To the extent TOP "flipped" it would be in the 4th Q when Michigan had to play from behind (i.e., faster).

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  6. Corum shouldn't have played in this game at all. Neither should JJ. It should have been the backup show across the board. Losing to Illinois has no bearing on our big ten championship chances, no bearing on beating OSU. If Michigan was focused on beating OSU - as they should have been - those guys wouldn't have played.

    The counter-argument to this involves what happens if we lose to OSU. People want to see us get in the backdoor of the playoff. No thanks. If we can't beat OSU, I don't want to go into a situation where we have to play Georgia or play OSU again a few weeks after the first time. I'd rather go have fun in the sun at the Rose Bowl and play a more compelling game against one of the Pac12 teams.

    Also - to the all the fans rooting for this - cheering for losses by TCU, Tenn, USC, etc. - you're just increasing the odds that we have to beat OSU once in the regular season and then again in a playoff. How fun would that be to beat OSU in Columbus and then let them get another crack at it on a neutral field. Again, No thanks.

    The Game should be winner takes all. That's college football baby.

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    1. I don’t understand this logic at all. So you didn’t want Michigan to make the playoff after losing at OSU in 2016? It’s possible to lose a game and still feel like you had the better team. If we get killed by OSU - sure, leave Michigan out. If it’s a close game, I’m team back door-playoff all day.

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    2. Can you imagine UGa thinking this way? Athletes want to compete. They want their chance, no matter how unlikely

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    3. @JE
      For the hundredth time - fans and players are different. They can have different perspectives. They SHOULD have different perspectives. They have different roles. You should understand that by now. Desmond Howard does.

      My many years as a fan have taught me that fans are happier when the season ends on a victory.

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    4. @Anon

      Yeah I do think that's a legit exception.

      A road team, losing on a dubious call -- that's the one type of rematch I think is worthwhile.

      The better team loses all the time - it's not about that. It's about the finality of outcomes - that's what makes college football great. All these rematches (and potential for them) undermine the importance and urgency and ultimately the passion.

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    5. That feels like more of a statement against the playoff then (or potentially expanding the playoff). If the evidence suggests that Michigan is one of the top 4 teams in the country, I can't fathom not rooting for other teams to lose so we can make the playoff. For example, if we lose a close game next weekend, will you be rooting for USC against Notre Dame? Makes no sense to me.

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    6. I hate the playoff. Bring back the BCS (playoff of 2).

      Yes - if Michigan wins vs OSU - I don't want OSU in the playoff. If Michigan loses to OSU - I don't want us in the playoff.

      Anything else undermines the The Game.

      *Caveat, again, is road team losing on dubious officiating or even a too-close-to-call finish (like 2016). But if one team decisively beats the other that should be that.

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    7. Question for those advocating for USC, Clemson, and other to lose -- do you want to have to play OSU again in a playoff once we beat them in Columbus?

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    8. If we beat OSU, the rooting interests certainly change. Primarily because I feel like OSU is one of the better teams in the country. If I felt like OSU was a mediocre team and had confidence in beating them again, go ahead - let's play again. For me it's all about probability of a national championship. That's the only criteria I'm weighing.

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    9. "If we beat OSU, the rooting interests certainly change"

      Sounds like you're assuming we lose. Hopefully the players don't think this way but you're allowed to. But if you think OSU is that good -- why would you want to play them twice!?

      The thing is we don't know what contributes to "probability of a national championship". It could be that the outcome of UM/OSU is entirely irrelevant -- which is what people seem to be rooting for because they think we will lose.

      I personally have no interest in losing to OSU, becoming a 4 seed to play against Georgia, and then, best case scenario if we pull off an upset, having to play OSU again. I'd rather beat OSU and be done with them.

      So....go USC! go TCU! go Clemson!

      If we lose to OSU I'd rather go play in Pasadena and if we beat OSU I DAMN SURE hope they go to Pasadena.

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    10. I think we have less than a 50% chance of winning the game. Doesn’t feel like an outlandish statement.

      If we lose to OSU and play Georgia in the playoff, our chances of winning a NC are >0%. As opposed to 0% if we don’t make it. I don’t understand why it isn’t that simple.

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    11. If we beat OSU and have to play them again our chances of a national title are < if we don't have to beat them twice. Getting OSU out of the playoff helps us. That's simple too.

      ...It's not that simple because it's not that simple. We haven't played OSU or been matched up with Georgia. There's too many variables to be doing basic arithmitic.

      That probability change on our national title chances is more dictated by the matchups than anything else. So let's go out and beat OSU and then play the weakest possible opponents in the playoff. Go Tigers! Go Horned Frogs! Go Trojans!

      I'd rather turn our 25% chance at a title into 35% (via favorable matchups in the semifinal) than turn 0% into 10%.

      The other thing that's not that simple is placing the playoff on a pedestal because, unlike major pro sports, there are other rewards outside of the playoff. The Rose Bowl may have lost it luster relative to past times but it's still an outstanding experience. Moreover, potentially ending the season with a win is vastly underrated IMO.

      The offseason vibes if we end the year with 1 loss to OSU and a bowl win over Oregon or whatever are going to be very positive. The offseason vibes if we end the year with 2 losses to OSU and Georgia are going to be exponentially more negative. This effects a lot of things including recruiting but most consequentially to this place on the internet - fan joy.

      Yes, I know that ignores a bunch of other possible scenarios in between. But if you're willing to say "we're probably going to lose to OSU" then I don't know why you're unwilling to say "we're probably going to lose to Georgia", and then I don't know why you would be cheering for that scenario.

      Go Blue. Beat OSU.

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  7. Most important thing is, we're 11-o ... not flashy, but Harbaugh has MICHIGAN back

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    1. Absolutely. Highest 2 year win total in program history I believe. Asterisks on that for sure but Harbaugh has us back at the Bo level (top 10 but not national champs). There were a lot of doubters 15 months ago. Anecdotally - I think the majority of the fanbase would have taken Matt Campbell, Matt Rhule, and a bunch of other HCs-of-the-moment who aren't nearly as good as Harbaugh (and know it).

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    2. Yeah, it's really hard to go 11-0. I've been playin at or going to see kids playing at games with balls for 60 plus years now. I have beau coup tournament wins, 18 or 20 conference wins, three districts, one state championship, and one lonely undefeated team. Michigan people should be proud of this team and this program, regardless of what happens Saturday.

      I believe we win, by the way. The Buckeyes are significantly more talented throwing it around. But, they are not anywhere near as physical as we are. Not anywhere on their roster, really, but particularly across both lines of scrimmage.

      The erstwhile "Horseshoe" is a very tough place to play, particularly in this game. They were embarrassed last year, and we ran our mouths, which is fine by me, but don't anyone think they didn't hear it all and/or have forgotten. So their hitting will be at the highest level they are capable of. I still think that we're bigger, stronger and tougher.

      Should be fun though.

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    3. Last year's recipe. A few ingredients might be missing (home field, Buckeye complacency) but we've added Olu and JJ. Hope we can out muscle them and out will them again - bad weather, long drives, knock them down and don't let them back up.

      Illinois might have punt a dent in those hopes - their D seemed up to the task after the 1st drive, but Keegan and Schoonmacher were key pieces missing. If we're missing Corum and Edwards this Saturday though.... even as a "RBs don't matter / All RBs are good" guy, it's going to be tough sledding.

      I'll say what I said last year - high hopes / low expectations.

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