If you look at yesterday's post, I discussed Michigan's run game (LINK).
TCU head coach Sonny Dykes recently stated that stopping Michigan's run game "stops their offense." So apparently they don't have a lot of respect for Michigan's passing game and quarterback J.J. McCarthy. That makes some sense - and it's probably the right approach - but the passing game is not without some playmakers. Overall, Michigan is #92 in passing offense (210.5 yards/game), but they're #24 in passing efficiency and #29 in yards per attempt. For much of the year, McCarthy was at or near the top of the country in completion percentage for a late-season stretch dropped him down to his current spot at #29 at 65.3%. He has thrown 20 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions on 8.3 yards per attempt. Wide receiver Ronnie Bell leads the team with 56 catches for 754 yards, adding in 3 touchdowns. Cornelius Johnson has about half as many catches (30) but twice as many touchdowns (6). Tight end Luke Schoonmaker (34 catches, 386 yards, 3 TD) should be able to play after suffering a shoulder injury, but freshman Colston Loveland has 7 catches for 160 yards and 2 touchdowns in the past few games. The offensive line has been good in pass protection - and McCarthy has the athleticism to escape - so the Wolverines are tied for #11 nationally with just 1 sack allowed per game.
TCU is #83 in pass defense (235.6 yards allowed/game) but #23 in passing efficiency defense. They rank at #45 in yards allowed per attempt (6.8). Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor have all had big days throwing the ball against the Horned Frogs, but Texas - with its star quarterback and receivers - really struggled. Teams have completed just 53.6% of their passes against them with a total of 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Redshirt sophomore free safety Bud Clark (6'2", 190) leads the team with 4 interceptions, followed by redshirt junior cornerback Josh Newton (6'0", 195) and senior cornerback Trevius Hodges-Tomlinson (5'9", 180) with 3 each. Hodges-Tomlinson was 1st Team All-Big 12 and Newton was 2nd Team, while Clark was Honorable Mention. TCU is #17 in turnover margin (+0.69 per game), so that's how they hold teams down. They're just #76 in sacks, led by senior linebacker Dee Winters (6'1", 230) with 7.5 and senior defensive end Dylan Horton (6'4", 275) with 6.0. Horton is the best natural pass rusher on the team, in my opinion, while Winters is the best blitzer.
Advantage: Push. TCU has a good secondary, but they are propped up by often being able to drop eight guys into coverage while rushing just the three linemen. If they commit more players to the line of scrimmage in order to stop the run, Michigan will have room to operate on the back end against players who might be put in unfamiliar coverages.
#24 in passing efficiency. #29 in yards per attempt. #29 in completion percentage at 65.3%
ReplyDeleteI think we can call it a top 25 passing offense once you factor in how few times McCarthy has been sacked (9). *For example, Colorado State's Clay Millen is first nationally in completion percentage (72%) but he has been sacked 53 times. Throw it away kid. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Sam Hartman have all been sacked 30-40 times. Only a handful of others (including Stroud and Bennett) are in McCarthy's single-digit sack neighborhood.
While an even matchup in a vacuum, this is a big advantage for Michigan if (as covered in the other post) TCU is going to have to bring extra numbers to stop Michigan's run game. It'll be on JJ and the receivers to make them pay for that. The question is if they will (like against OSU) or if they'll struggle to figure it out (like against Illinois). Indiana was another opponent who cheated to stop the run (like Illinois it mostly worked as the backs had 31 carries for 89 yards outside of one big run by Corum) and got torn up by McCarthy for their trouble. He had a 300 yard game without a 30+ yard pass.
I think McCarthy is up for the job, IF the horned frogs are effective at stopping the run by selling out. He's the best QB of the Harbaugh era already. But I think he'll have to prove it if Michigan wants to win playoff games.
Agree. It's probably even, but TCU is open about selling out against the run. MICHIGAN has to be able to seize on this opportunity ... we just have to
DeleteThe silver lining of the Corum injury is that Michigan is less likely to sit back and try to run run run. But Mullings is at RB full time and CJ Stokes "isn't a freshman anymore" so maybe that's bunk.
DeleteMichigan still ran more than they passed even against Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio State. I believe the first half of OSU was the only time the offense was more pass than run.