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In case you missed it, here are the previews for Michigan's rushing offense (LINK) and passing offense (LINK).
Michigan is #3 in rushing defense (85.2 yards allowed/game) and #5 in yards allowed per attempt (2.92). They have allowed just 7 rushing touchdowns this season, which is tied for #4 in the country. Only four teams all season (Hawaii, Penn State, Illinois, and Ohio State) topped 4.0 yards per carry, and only one of those (PSU) got above 5.0. The defensive unit has been served well by freak nose tackle Mazi Smith, who is playing in this game and has not missed any time despite gun charges being levied against him. Smith has made 45 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss this season. The leading tackler is middle linebacker Junior Colson, who has 95 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks. Disruptive defensive end Mike Morris (21 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 7.5 sacks) is back after getting injured against Illinois. It's a good unit from front to back, but Michigan did have some tackling woes in the Big Ten Championship Game against Purdue, so they will have to be better against some solid runners for TCU.
The primary runner for the Horned Frogs is junior Kendre Miller (6'0", 220 lbs.), who ran 216 times for 1,342 yards (6.21 yards/carry) and 17 touchdowns. In three games against ranked teams this season, Miller ran 67 times for 373 yards and 4 touchdowns. Backup Emari Demercado (5'11", 210) is a senior who has 90 attempts for 472 yards and 5 scores. Another rushing threat is quarterback Max Duggan (6'2", 210) who has 112 attempts for 404 yards and 6 touchdowns. Against Oklahoma and in the Big 12 championship, Duggan ran for over 100 yards; he has good speed and isn't afraid of contact. Despite all the rushing success, TCU had zero linemen on the First Team All-Big 12 unit; however, they did manage to land three players on the second team: redshirt senior left guard Steve Avila (6'4", 330), redshirt senior center Alan Ali (6'5", 300), and redshirt junior right tackle Andrew Coker (6'7", 315). Avila is probably the best of the bunch; Coker plays a little bit high at times, and I think Ali will get pushed around by Mazi Smith. Overall, TCU is #25 in rushing offense (200 yards/game) and #19 in yards per attempt (5.23).
Advantage: Michigan. While TCU is a formidable unit - and Duggan's running is an X factor - there's a reason that Michigan is top five in almost every rushing defense category.
Agree here. Just don't let the Horned Frogs get into a rhythm
ReplyDeleteI think Michigan's defense hasn't really been tested on the ground very much. We've faced a lot of very bad offenses. OSU, PSU, and Illinois all have decent running games and they all had some degree of success. Miller might be the best back we've faced and they have a big solid veteran OL. So I don't feel as confident about this as Thunder does.
ReplyDeleteBut I also think this is really not where the game will be won or lost. It's a passing offense that runs just enough to keep defenses honest. They don't focus on run blocking. The big worry is Duggan breaking off big runs like Sean Clifford did. Defending that is more of a pass rush strategy than run game issue though.
If our secondary can cover their passing game without extra bodies, we have more than enough fire power to keep the run game in check with our strong front 6. If we get beat by big passing plays and have to cheat to drop LBs into coverage or pull them entirely for dime personnel then the equation might change and Miller becomes a dangerous playmaker.
I might be placing too much emphasis on the Kansas State Big 12 championship game, which is what I've watched the most. But KSU is filled with undersized players and gave TCU problems. Their defensive ends are 245-255 lbs., and their nose tackle is 6'5", 297. In some cases, Michigan is 30-40 pounds heavier at every DL position (depending on who's on the field) and just as athletic.
DeleteTCU could definitely cause problems for Michigan. I'm not saying it's a foregone conclusion that Michigan dominates. But Michigan has NFL-level talent across the board, and TCU doesn't. Mike Morris, Mazi Smith, Kris Jenkins, Junior Colson, I think Braiden McGregor (eventually), maybe Eyabi Okie, etc., all these guys are going to get drafted. MGoBlog keeps pointing at Upshaw as the weak link on the DL and he's a 6'4", 255 lb. fifth year senior with a dad who was an NFL defensive lineman, and he has 10.5 TFLs and 5.5 sacks in his career. If that's like your 8th best guy on the defensive line, you're in pretty good shape.
I think you are right to worry about Miller as he seems like the real deal. But I am not as worried about the TCU O-line against our D-line. I think Miller will have a handful of 10+ yard runs and have a good game but on a down-to-down basis, I think Michigan will bottle him up most of the time. But combined with Duggan running and the passing attack, this will be a tough offense to stop. They may get 30 plus against us so Michigan's offense will need to be sharp and aggressive.
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