Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Preview: 2023 Early National Signing Day

 

Kankakee (IL) Kankakee cornerback Jyaire Hill

Happy National Signing Day!

The first National Signing Day takes place today, December 21, 2022. Michigan has landed a number of commitments in recent days, both from the transfer portal (QB Jack Tuttle and TE A.J. Barner from Indiana; OL LaDarius Henderson from Arizona State; OL Drake Nugent and OL Myles Hinton from Stanford; LB Ernest Hausmann from Nebraska; and EDGE Josaiah Stewart from Coastal Carolina) and from the high school ranks (LB Hayden Moore, DT Roderick Pierce, DB D.J. Waller).

Michigan has offered upwards of 330+ players in the class of 2023, so I will not do a rundown here of every single uncommitted prospect. But there are some uncommitted players of note that are still available and being pursued by Michigan. Here are some of the more noteworthy ones:

  • Karmello English - WR - Phenix City (AL) Central: English (4-star, #25 WR, #178 overall) was previously committed to Auburn, but the coaching change altered that situation. His final five includes Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Michigan, and Jackson State. Some crystal balls came in last night for him to pick Michigan.
  • Chance Fitzgerald - WR - Nolensville (TN) Nolensville: Fitzgerald recently committed to Virginia Tech and was being slow played a little bit while Michigan prioritized English.
  • Aaron Gates - S - Sharpsburg (GA) Trinity: Gates (4-star, #21 ATH, #382 overall) has been committed to Florida all along, but at one time, there was optimism that Michigan could get him to flip. That appears unlikely at this point and he will probably stick with the Gators.
  • Nyckoles Harbor - WR/TE - Washington (DC) Archbishop Carroll: I throw 5-star athlete Harbor in here just to reiterate that he is not signing until February.
  • Jyaire Hill - CB - Kankakee (IL) Kankakee: Hill is a 4-star, the #23 cornerback, and #194 overall in the 247 Composite. He released a top five that does not include Michigan, but the Wolverines had appeared to be battling Illinois neck-and-neck for his services. It will be interesting to see whether his top five was a smoke screen or if he truly has eliminated the Wolverines.
  • Jamel Howard - DT - Chicago (IL) Marist: Howard is also not signing until February. Some southern schools like LSU and Ole Miss have come in with offers lately, and he will likely take some more visits in January.
  • Taliafi Taala - OT - Sandy (UT) Alta: Taala (3-star, #38 OT, #508 overall) has been a target for Michigan, but he appears unlikely to end up in Michigan's class at this point.

Another story line to watch is that of Michigan defensive end commit Enow Etta, who has been courted by Miami to join Collins Acheampong. Etta has said all the right things to the media about remaining committed to Michigan, but crazier things have happened.

17 comments:

  1. Best recruiting class in history!

    But only if you include Portal additions. Which why not?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Exactly! Why not?

      Floodgates 💪🏽

      Delete
    2. Yep - there's a lot of doom and gloom about NIL-related recruiting outcomes but the disastrous class is still 17th before including the 7 portal guys. I think in 5 years we'll look back and see this as a very highly ranked composite class when people figure out that Portal additions are more valuable than those from high school.

      Our American pro sports leagues all cap rookie contracts so we don't have much in the way of comparison but soccer does not. Guys there make WAY more money when they are proven players aged 20 or 21 compared to kids coming up as 17 or 18 year olds. Salaries are still projections to a degree but that reflects relative value pretty well. I don't think anyone here would dispute that seniors are generally better than freshman.

      And the assumption that a guy is going to stick around for 4 years is totally out the window now. If he's an elite player he's probably out the door in 3 years. If he doesn't like his playing time (like Charbonnet) he's out in 2. So getting 2 starting seasons out of guys (like we might with Nugent) out of the Portal is really just as good as hitting on a high school player.

      Delete
  2. Not even close to the best, even with the portal. Michigan once (at least) had the #1 recruiting class nationally. This is not that but let's hope it overperforms the rankings.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Name a Michigan class that's better.

      Nobody is yet making a total combined class ranking but our Portal class is #1 right now. Our HS class is 17. We have a rimington candidate, a elite pass rusher, an all conference OG, a starting TE on top of all the HS kids.

      It's a new world and with the portal there are sure things that were simply not there in an all-HS recruiting class.

      Delete
    2. 247 Sports has a combined ranking and has Michigan at #16.

      Delete
    3. Here's a good resource. https://www.mgoblog.com/content/michigan-all-recruiting-class-team

      Delete
    4. @Thunder. Do you have a link? I haven't been able to find that. All I see is the HS class (23 commits). https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/

      I don't understand how the combined rank of the #17 HS class and the #1 Portal class could end up at just #16. If true, that's bad methodology that dramatically undervalues sure-thing transfers.

      Delete
    5. @Kurt

      That's not really an answer. I didn't say it was the best class at every position. I said it was the best class overall.

      But if you want to go by position I would say that 2023 is very likely the best OL class ever. Yes, including the legendary 96 OL class (my class BTW - I met half those guys at orientation and bumped into others around campus).

      Anyway you have Hutchinson - an NFL HOFer and All American and Backus - not far off so that's a high bar. Can argue with Hutchinson's inclusion since he came in as DL recruit. Others were David Brandt - quality college starter - and Paul Tannus a bust.

      This 2023 class has 3 guys who are sure-fire starters out of the gate (or could be in Hinton's case) and probably a couple high NFL picks before you even get to the 4 freshman. Obviously they have to produce before we can say anything for sure but this 7 man class is very likely IMO to outproduce the 96 class at the college level, even if nobody is as good as Hutch or even Backus in the pros.

      Delete
    6. @Thunder

      https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/OverallTeamRankings/

      OK I see it now.

      I have to say that is awful methodology. They score Drake Nugent a +.29 and Nathan Efobi a +13.33.

      Anyone want to bet that Efobi's career is 40 times more productive than Nugent's? LOL

      https://247sports.com/college/michigan/Season/2023-Football/ClassCalculator/

      Some of these are a joke.

      Tuttle is a +13.6 and will probably not play a meaningful down. I'll take LaDarius Henderson +1.51 since you know, he's projected as a high NFL draft pick.

      The methodologies have not caught up to the new reality.

      Delete
    7. You can cap the value of a transfer like Olu at 1 year of starting relative to somebody like Zinter (3 years) out of HS but the vast majority of players, even 5-star kids, are not 3-year starters. When we're talking about guys who might be around for 2 more season (Nugent, Hinton, Barner) they are likely to be (on average) just as valuable as a high end high school recruit.

      The recruiting sites seemingly would value a 4-star out of HS as more important than a grad transfer, but we got 1 year of starting out of Cade out of High School (after 2 more years of development) while Iowa can get 2 more years from him. That's a bigger recruiting win for Iowa than Michigan and the same goes for every Portal guy we are bringing in.

      There's going to be a lot of schools falling over themselves to give NIL money to Derrick Green and Shane Morris types. Sometimes they'll hit and sometimes they won't. Michigan would be wise to not play this game and instead focus their resources on sure things.

      Once the COVID year filters out this might be less beneficial but if we're consistently picking off people like Hausmann, after a one semester "internship" at a separate school, that's highly beneficial.

      I think our staff is ahead of the curve as they are using HS scholarships on high ceiling low floor types and high character program guys. The Portal can fill holes around that.

      Delete
    8. I would guess that in future years we'll see bigger portal classes with more freshman being pulled up from lesser programs. I think 10-15 Portal recruits could become the norm. I don't know if that means fewer HS recruits or not (maybe the grad guys can be NIL only, not scholarship players) but the differences between HS recruiting and team performance will broaden as turnover continues to grow.

      Delete
    9. It makes sense that Michigan is hitting the portal and I am glad they are doing a good job since "typical" recruiting is a bit subpar. But I don't think it completely diminishes HS recruiting. Olu was a no doubt, "5-star" best case transfer. But Michigan will get even more out a Will Johnson, a 5 star guy that ends up starting by the end of his freshman year and will likely be a lock-down anchor of the defense for another 2 years after. Similarly, JJ and Donovan were contributors in the first year and are/will be major contributors/stars for the next two years. It's unlikely that you get a transfer with a similar impact. Summary: Unless you are elite at HS recruiting, you likely need both to assemble a consistent playoff contender.

      Delete
    10. You're absolutely right that a HS player, in a best case scenario, can be more impactful. We'll get 3 years of JJ, Will Johnson, Dax Hill, and many others and that's more valuable than 1 year of Olu, Danna, Rudock, etc. That thinking makes sense and was absolutely true 5 years ago but it doesn't anymore because the differences have squished down dramatically. 2 big reasons why: underclassmen transfers permitted without any penalty, and more and more departures earlier (to the NFL and via transfer).

      A lot of HS elite players are 3 year guys who will only be starters for 1 year. Blake Corum and Rashan Gary only had 1 year as full time starters. Even Cade McNamara (4 seasons of scholarship) only really contributed to one year. Ojabo gave us 1 good year. McGrone - 1. Hinton left after 3 years but wasn't even that good. Charbonnet left after 2 years. McCaffrey never started a single game. Edwards will give us just over a year as a starter, and that's if he's healthy next year.

      And on the other side, via the Portal, we're no longer just taking 1 year guys. Tuttle is and Henderson probably is but Nugent, Hinton, Stewart, and Barner have 2 years left -- and they don't really need development time, they're plug and play right now. That's not really different than a majority of HS recruit, very few of which will start more than 2 years worth. And then you've got Hausmann who has got 3 years left. Nebraska just trained him up for us. THX.

      I can draw the contrast very simply with one word: Hinton. We got Chris out of HS and we'll get Myles out of the portal and there's a real good chance that Myles is a bigger contributor.

      The other thing you didn't mention is the downside. We can be 99% sure that Barner is going to be a capable player and Tuttle a viable backup QB, but when we needed guys like Derrick Green, Shane Morris, Aubrey Solomon they didn't deliver. Nolan Rumler and Andre Seldon were top 175 recruits and never played a meaningful down. For every Will Johnson there's 4 Myles Sims or Andre Seldons or Donovan Warren-Greens. There's a million more examples of course more egregious than these - you get the point.

      So yeah, the best case scenario (3 year starter) is better for a HS kid but a)that's pretty rare and b) the worst case scenario is much worse. If you can get a sure thing out of the Portal for 2 years you are going to be better off in the majority of cases.

      The bigger risk with the Portal IMO is that it's much tougher to maintain a team culture. It's hard enough if guys are passing through for 4 years. If you lean too heavily on 1 or 2 year contributors the challenge is elevated.

      HS recruiting is still going to be important. Just like, in the NFL, the draft is important. But more important is what you do in free agency. You can evaluate one or the other independently but if you're talking about the offseason you look at both. Since it's all "recruiting" at the college level it's much less useful to distinguish. At this point you don't have to choose one or the other but once the market settles a bit there will be certain compensation expectations for each. Programs will have to make choices, just like a business, about where they "invest". Even Alabama and OSU, which is why they are upset right now...

      The NFL solves this problem by capping salaries of rookies so that veterans can get paid more. In college it's going to be a free for all and it's going to be interesting to see how the market sorts itself out. My guess is that you'll find it very common for programs like Michigan and Alabama to pull from the "minor leagues" more and more and less likely to take on risks of high school prospects.

      Delete
    11. The point on culture is huge. We MUST take advantage of portal & NIL rules in order to keep up ... but you can't base team culture on it


      Someone has to ascend - will it be MICHIGAN? Only time will tell, but I like this first attempt

      Delete
  3. Good, not great class. 17th nationally, 3rd in the Big Ten, no 5-stars to be the cornerstone. Last year's dalliance with the NFL by Harbaugh, and the shuffling of coordinators no doubt took its toll. But that said, it's good.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The HS recruiting dropped, I won't debate that. But we more than made up for it with portal guys ... true to Harbaugh & the identity of the program, it starts in the trenches

      Delete