Friday, December 16, 2022

Potential Early Departures: Defense

 

Quinten Johnson (image via MGoBlue)

With the onslaught of transfer portal entries in college football, it's inevitable that Michigan will face some more departures this off-season. Four players have already announced their intentions to transfer, and two (Cade McNamara and Erick All to Iowa) have already found a landing spot. Quarterback Alan Bowman and tight end Louis Hansen are both headed for, ahem, greener pastures.

McNamara and All are both somewhat unique cases of players who played a lot but felt slighted in some way, but Bowman and Hansen are more typical cases of players buried on the depth chart who want to see some light at the end of the tunnel. This post explores several players in similar situations who may find better situations elsewhere.

You can find the version for the offensive side of the ball here (LINK).

DISCLAIMER: This post is speculative in nature and not intended to encourage/discourage any player from leaving Michigan's program. The reality is that college football is now a lot like unrestricted free agency from year to year.

LB JOEY VELAZQUEZ
Why he should stay: Velazquez is a solid two-sport athlete who's having a decent impact on the baseball field with Michigan's baseball team. His playing time on the field has increased yearly from one game in 2020 to seven games in 2021 to eleven games so far in the 2022 season. He is a steady contributor on special teams and has made a career-high 6 tackles.
Why he might leave: Playing time has been difficult to find on defense, and he has never risen above third string on defense. He was immediately passed by freshman Jimmy Rolder this fall, and the commitment of Ernest Hausmann probably does not bode well for the staff's faith in Velazquez contributing on defense in 2023. Velazquez only has one season of eligibility remaining, and he may want to go somewhere he can compete for a starting job, which is extremely unlikely in Ann Arbor.

Hit the jump for more.


S QUINTEN JOHNSON
Why he should stay: Johnson's playing time picked up a little bit this season. Not only has he played in all thirteen games, but he has set a career high with 9 tackles and 1 tackle for loss. He has been playing on a lot of special teams for the past couple seasons, but the departures of Brad Hawkins and Daxton Hill opened up more time at safety.
Why he might leave: Going into his fifth season, Johnson has yet to secure a starting spot and will be on the outside looking in for 2023, looking up at the likes of Rod Moore, R.J. Moten, and Makari Paige. He's a player who could probably go to a little bit smaller program - or even a lower tier Big Ten squad - and at least be in the mix to start.

CB JALEN PERRY
Why he should stay: There's a possibility that Michigan will be losing at least two corners after this season in Gemon Green and D.J. Turner II; while Will Johnson is assuredly handling one of those spots next year, the other position is open and Michigan is considering transfer portal options for 2023.
Why he might leave: Well . . . Michigan is considering transfer portal options. They do not appear to be extremely confident in their remaining options, though that could be just because Perry only has one year of eligibility left. Regardless, Perry has played sparingly, mainly on special teams or in blowouts. He's from Georgia and may want to play closer to home for a season or two.

EDGE KECHAUN BENNETT
Why he should stay: Michigan's development at the edge position has been outstanding, with those players consistently making an impact on the game. Even before Michigan adjusted to a Baltimore Ravens-style defense and spit out David Ojabo and Aidan Hutchinson, the staff was producing outstanding edge rushers like Josh Uche, Chase Winovich, and Taco Charlton. Mike Morris and Taylor Upshaw are both likely gone after the season, leaving room for the backups to level up.
Why he might leave: After two seasons in Ann Arbor, Bennett has played in just four total games, even though Michigan blows almost every opponent out. After the cupcake non-conference season was over, Bennett did not sniff the field. There has been zero practice buzz about Bennett, and at 6'4" and 241 lbs., he's still pretty light. Class of 2022 freshman Derrick Moore already blew past Bennett on the depth chart.

DT IKE IWUNNAH
Why he should stay: Michigan is an outstanding team and school with good defensive line development.
Why he might leave: Iwunnah has watched a bunch of blowout victories go past without sniffing the field. A bunch of younger players and classmates have scooted past him for playing time, including Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Rayshaun Benny. The Texas native has spent two years in Michigan and may want to head closer to home.

LB JAYDON HOOD
Why he should stay: He's talented! At 6'1" and 217 lbs., he still has room to grow and could be in line for more playing time if he can pack on a little more bulk.
Why he might leave: Hood has only played in three games this season. Jimmy Rolder passed him up as a freshman, and Michigan recruited Nebraska's Ernest Hausmann out of the transfer portal. I don't really see a path for Hood to be anywhere above a third-stringer behind Colson, Hill-Green, Mullings, and Rolder.

42 comments:

  1. Good disclaimer.

    I would bet on Velazquez being back. He seems to be rising up in baseball so I'm not sure the football depth chart is driving decisions there. He's never been considered an NFL prospect so competing for national titles might be more important to him than trying to have a starting spot. I know zilch about his academics but I'm confident that being a year-round athlete would make early graduation tougher. Does not seem likely to me that he'll find a better fit in academics, baseball and football simultaneously. Maybe that changes after senior year graduation.

    Regarding edge - I'm not so sure if Upshaw will be gone. He's in the same class and has the same eligiblity as Okie. I do agree there will be some opportunity if those 2 are out the door. Harrell, McGregor, and Moore will all play big roles I think but there's room after that. It seems like Guy and Pollard (quietly getting some notable playing time for a freshman) are next up but there's room for competition. If Michigan gets Okie and Upshaw back (and they're kind of a nice blend of high floor/high ceiling and stability/uncertainty as a pair) and they add a speedier edge rusher from the portal, it's going to get late early for some guys.

    I do think edge is a spot where we have to remember the speed rush guys (Uche, Winovich, Ojabo) basically did nothing as freshman, maybe got buzz as sophomores, and only emerged as impact starters by year 3 or 4. Even Hutchinson didn't look like an elite pass rusher until year 4.

    With Rooks out the door (along with Smith, Morris, Goode) I'd like to see Iwunnah stick around now that there's a very open opportunity. Yes he's been passed by younger guys, but there are still going to be ample rotational snaps to be had at DT for somebody. Iwunnah should give it another year unless the situation is really hopeless. Maybe early graduation is an option after the 2023 season and he can look around then if he's still stuck.

    I really can't argue with any of the LBs considering leaving. There's not much rotation at that spot and Colson is locked in for 1 more year at one spot. The other one has some combo of Barret/Rolder/NHG/Hausaman so there's really not much light. I didn't even mention Mullings - who I don't think will be a factor at LB beyond depth.

    I'm actually surprised to not see Mullings on this list. He's clearly a good enough player to get playing time somewhere but with NHG and Colson back, Rolder rising, and Hausmann coming in it's hard to see a starting spot for him at Michigan. Maybe not even a big role.

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  2. Regarding the comment about "the staff was producing outstanding edge rushers" there's a pretty big omission there. Rashan Gary who has 22.5 sacks in 56 NFL games. Contrast with Charlton who has 11.5 in 58 NFL games. Even Mike Danna (8.5 sacks in 38 NFL games) is ahead of Charlton.

    If Michigan is putting together an edge rush production resume, I'm not sure Charlton is a top 3 guy worth mentioning even though he had a good senior year.

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    1. UM developed taco into a first round draft pick.

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    2. But not a player worthy of being drafted in the first round.

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    3. Top sack totals since 2015:

      Aidan Hutchinson - 14.0 (2021)
      David Ojabo - 11.0 (2021)
      Taco Charlton - 10.0 (2016)
      Josh Uche - 8.5 (2019)
      Khalke Hudson - 8.0 (2017)
      Chase Winovich - 8.0 (2017)
      Mike Morris - 7.5 (2022)
      Josh Uche - 7.0 (2018)
      Willie Henry - 6.5 (2015)
      Chris Wormley - 6.5 (2015)
      Rashan Gary - 6.0 (2017)

      You alternate back and forth between NFL draft/production mattering, so I'm not sure which way the wind is blowing. But regardless, Gary is #11 in sacks at Michigan since Harbaugh took over seven years ago. But it's a long list if I have to list everyone all the way down to #11.

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    4. Gary was drafted higher and has outproduced him.

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    5. @Thunder

      Yeah it depends what you mean by "producing outstanding edge rushers".

      In this case Gary is a better edge rusher by NFL stats, by draft position, and through 3 years of college (9 sacks vs 9.5). The difference is that Charlton came back for a highly productive senior year in college and Gary didn't.

      But if you say "this guy is an outstanding pass rusher" I think objectively, most of the world would say Rashan Gary is a more outstanding pass rusher based on the body evidence.

      Hard to argue with Charlton's best college season's production (10 sacks). If you say "outstanding pass rush seasons at Michigan" then I wouldn't argue the point very strongly but I still think Gary may have been a more impactful player as a sophomore than Charlton was as a senior given the talent surrounding Charlton on 2016. Given what happened in the NFL I think that offers some context about relative contributions of induvial members of that amazing defense.

      That's pretty far down the rabbit hole. Point is we aren't just looking at who had the best year in college if we're making a general statement about a player.

      It would be a bit like saying Karan Higdon is the best RB Michigan had between Mike Hart and Blake Corum based on one good year when the total lack of interest in the NFL indicates that there have been several backs who are better players. Can't take that year away from Higdon but he's clearly not THAT good of a RB when guys like Toussaint, Evans, and more proved themselves to be better players at the next level.

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    6. I don't think I'm really inconsistent Thunder. The framing of the argument matters - nobody is judged by just one season unless you frame the discussion around best seasons.

      What I've said consistently is that NFL outcomes can inform perceptions of college careers but if you're judging a college player you have to look foremost at their college career.

      Gary is a better football player than Charlton. Period. Charlton had a better senior season than Gary's sophomore year - but both were 1st team all conference so it's close.

      You tend to care a lot about things that are projections (recruiting rankings, draft positions) and I tend to care more about contextualized outcomes.

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    7. @ Lank 5:00 p.m.

      "You tend to care a lot about things that are projections (recruiting rankings, draft positions) and I tend to care more about contextualized outcomes."

      See, you just massage this whichever way you want on any given day. You bring up draft position when it comes to Rashan Gary, but then you poo-poo it when it comes to someone like Michael Cox. You say NFL production is important, but when it comes to Vincent Smith, it can't be. It all just depends on which way the wind is blowing.

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    8. The above argument holds regardless of draft position. If Gary had been drafted in round 6 or undrafted it wouldn't have changed his production in any way shape or form. I'm bringing it up because it seems to matter to some.

      Michael Cox LOL. The guy whose best production after high school was running for 3 ypc at UMass.

      My argument for Vincent Smith - which has eclipsed a decade in age now - was that he was better than Mike Shaw. 2 coaching staffs confirmed this. The NFL didn't change the narrative here (though they could have). Just like they didn't change the narrative of Ty Isaac vs Deveon Smith. If Isaac or Shaw was rushing for thousands of yards in the NFL right now I'd have to admit I was wrong, the coaches were wrong, and you were right to doubt them. But that's not what happened.

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    9. "That's pretty far down the rabbit hole"

      again

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  3. I would love to see some discussion about how the "new normal" -- that is, the portal 'free agency' thing; the whole NIL dynamic thing; etc. -- is viewed by players on the team, and in the locker room, etc. For example, what's it like for a player without an NIL deal to see someone with a big dollar one flashing new purchases? Do they accept it as part of the benefit of being a superstar, or does envy creep in? Or a player who thought they might break into the starter role only to have that snatched away by an incoming portal player: is there some simmering resentment?

    These players are humans, and young ones at that, and they have hopes and dreams and aspirations just like anyone. This "new normal" might take some emotional processing that's not yet been experienced by many, so I have to imagine there's something there, though not many will say it out loud.

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    1. IMO it's nothing new from the perspective of potential resentment or jealousy. Some athletes are just naturally gifted but most are there because they are competitors. NIL or no NIL the guy behind wants what the guy above has - it can be playing time, accolades, fame, whatever. There's a "reward" there if it includes money or doesn't.

      The portal gives the players an option of course and leverage in how they are treated by coaches. But we've always had outgoing transfers and there's always going to be winners and losers in competitive settings.

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    2. That's not something I'm really qualified to speak on (regarding NIL). TBH, I find the whole NIL discussion boring. It's just impossible to keep track of all that stuff from my perspective. I've also never cared about pro contracts. I just hate the business side of sports. I understand it and respect that it has a place, but it's just not my thing.

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    3. Lank -- my guess is it's more than merely 'more of the same.' I've already read several different reports where the early rumbling of envy was bubbling through. Time will tell how this shakes out.

      Thunder -- fair enough. The NIL thing was just an example. The more intriguing thing (to me) is the whole 'locker room dynamic' that goes on. I hear of some teams with great locker room cohesion, and others where it's a problem, usually caused by a toxic player or two. What I think would be interesting is hearing from you -- a coach -- on the subject of how to encourage and maintain good locker room cohesion in the midst of challenges to that cohesion.

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    4. As far as NIL, I'm really, really getting tired of seeing commitment pictures on twitter with the player standing next to Lamborghinis and Ferraris.

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    5. You might be right anon but I'm just saying jealously was always part of it.

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    6. @ Anonymous 4:42 p.m.

      I mean, as far as high school goes, I could give you a lot of good and bad examples. But that's a little bit different than NIL situations in college.

      I think the best thing is to let leadership come from the players. If you can find high quality leaders who are "alpha males" that can control a locker room, that's ideal. Come up with a group of players who can be trusted with leadership and let them lead. Players get tired of coaches imposing rules, but if expectations are coming from peers, they're more likely to be followed.

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    7. @ Mego Torsten 5:52 p.m.

      What part of that makes you mad? That they're being posted or that it's not Michigan players who are posting them?

      I definitely don't like the direction college football has gone. Yes, some level of cheating has always been a part of the equation, but obviously, this NIL thing has taken things to a whole new level. There's certainly something to be said for people doing things because they're passionate about it, not because there's something to gain financially. But at the same time, it didn't make sense for college coaches to be making $7,000,000 per year or more while star players were expected to play for free tuition/room/board/meals.

      And it doesn't make sense for the schools to keep all the money while not paying the coaches much. And it doesn't make sense for the players to get all the money, because they're using the schools and the coaches and the uniforms and the traditions and the TV deals to elevate themselves.

      So everyone needs a piece of the pie. But right now things are out of control.

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    8. Do we have a guy whose sole responsibility is NIL? Like an NIL Director or Coordinator?

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    9. "coaches to be making $7,000,000 per year "

      you're portraying a half truth. Coaches have 1000 times as much pressure, do far more work, and are far more experienced than the players. They've earned more.

      It makes no sense that you made their positions equal. You're a coach. You should know that already.

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    10. Did anyone say every player and every coach should get an "equal" piece? That's not what I read.
      To me it reads everyone needs "a" piece...

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    11. @ je93 10:11 p.m.

      Word on the street is that Michigan is in the process of finding an NIL Director.

      @ Mego Torsten 11:39 p.m.

      I didn't make their positions equal. I said everyone should get a piece of the pie. Some people get big wedges of pie, and some people get slivers.

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  4. interesting list. few other names might make sense like mclaurin, guidice (though ive seen him listed elsewhere at OL). basically more guys who were half a step too slow as recruits for top 10 program. sometimes those guys develop and find a role, sometimes not

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    1. I'm not sure where Giudice will end up permanently. He played a little bit on the OL but an injury submarined almost his entire 2022 season.

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    2. He was spinning hiswheels on the DLine, was switched to OLine, and was showing promise on that side of the ball. But then he got injured.

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  5. Cade McNamara wants to be a starter. He wants to play. That is why he left. Nothing to do with feeling slighted.

    Hey, here's an idea: let's give the QB that started last year, and was a big part of a huge turnaround in the team, have the benefit of the doubt.

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    1. He got the benefit of the doubt until he started going in public bad-mouthing the program.

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    2. I mean, it has something to do with feeling slighted if you've paid attention to what he's said in the past couple weeks. Yes, he wants to play and might have left anyway, but he felt like he should have been the unquestioned QB in 2022.

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    3. It seems I've been paying attention more than you. You really thought he will stay here and be at 2nd string?
      He wants to play. So he transferred out. Why is there a rash among so many Michigan fans of making things out to be what they are not?
      Do you also think he threw shade on JJ McCarthy, and was critical of the program?

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    4. Your hyperbole is tiresome. He didn't do what a Michigan Man is expected to do, that is demonstrate some grace and some class.

      See the Tom Brady and Drew Henson story.

      Nobody has a rash. Lots of people while understanding that he needed to move on if he wanted to play because, barring injury, he's second string here, were disappointed in his exit interview which demonstrated some lack of both grace and class.

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    5. So you"re making stuff up about Cade McNamara because?

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    6. Nothing made up. Kid was gifted a chance to be everybody's favorite second string QB here forever, he goofed it. Now it's, he was a good QB, the other guy was better. He left. Oh well!

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    7. So your problem with him is because he didn't stay at Michigan and be 2nd string.

      You might want to get out more often.

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    8. I said neither of those things, or even suggested them as being my problem with young Cade. You should maybe stay in and practice up on your reading comprehension.

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  6. I don't remember ever reading the name "KECHAUN BENNETT" ... and, I nearly forgot about IWUNNAH, but do remember his commitment

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    1. As a reminder, you thought Iwunnah was a big deal and signaled a big change in approach from the foolish Don Brown era where not enough big DTs were getting recruited.

      Michigan has gotten a little bit bigger on the DL and is recruiting "true" NT types. But Iwunnah didn't really signal anything. Also they're still starting a DE recruit who weighed less than 240 pounds at DT and still using very Anchor-like players on the edge and very LB-like players on the other edge. It's more the same than it is different.

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    2. How can you lie so comfortably?

      I had no specific excitement about the signing of this one recruit. I was glad MICHIGAN had moved to start recruiting Tackles, meant to play Tackle. It's paid off, and we now have a stacked DL that does not feel the impact of losing a guy to the portal


      Just stop already

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    3. LOL. Relax. Nobody is lying to you. I remember it differently with confidence but I'm not going to dig up the old posts. Michigan always recruited "true DTs" and they always recruited "DEs who will grow into DTs". True then. True now. Whatever shifts have happened are up for debate but Iwunnah wasn't a big indicator of change.

      I think we can agree that the DL is in great shape right now where we can lose a promising player like Rooks and shrug it off and add serviceable players like Goode and not really even use them.

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  7. I don't remember ever reading too about it;)

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  8. https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/touch-the-banner.com/kechaun-bennett-wolverine

    That's because he doesn't really exist.

    Roanman

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  9. He came in as a tweener listed as a Strongside DE. He was 6'4" 220-ish coming in. He is not yes big enough to play there, and may not be some other thing enough to play the weak edge.

    At Michigan
    • One-year letterman (2021)

    Sophomore (2022)
    • Played off the edge against Colorado State (Sept. 3)
    • Earned snaps off the edge against Hawaii (Sept. 10)
    • Played special teams snaps against UConn (Sept. 17)

    Freshman (2021)
    • Appeared in one game along the defensive line to earn his first varsity letter
    • Made his U-M debut along the defensive line against Northern Illinois (Sept. 18)

    Prep
    • Attended Suffield Academy (2021) coached by Drew Gamere
    • Helped team to a 9-0 mark and the 2019 NEPSAC Bowl Championship as a junior
    • Four-year varsity performer and three-year starter

    Key Statistics
    • Had his senior season canceled due to COVID-19
    • Recorded 48 tackles, 12 tackles for loss and seven sacks during his junior year
    • Tallied 52 stops, 13 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks as a sophomore

    Honors and Rankings
    • Earned a 247Sports Composite ranking of four-stars; the No. 344 overall player nationally, the No. 23 strong side defensive end, and the top rated player in the state of Connecticut
    • Named a three-star prospect by 247Sports; the No. 27 strong side defensive end and the top player in the state of Connecticut
    • Rated as a four-star prospect by ESPN, the No. 40 defensive end and the top player in the state of Connecticut
    • Rivals.com four-star prospect, the No. 13 weak side defensive end nationally and the top player in Connecticut

    Personal
    • Kechaun Bennett was born July 24, 2003
    • Son of Cynthia and Kevin Bennett

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