Michigan Combine participation and Draft position since 1999

Marquise Walker

With the NFL Combine behind us and the Draft not too far away, now seems like a good time to take a look at the recent history of Wolverines in the NFL. Here's a list of players who have participated in the combine since 1999, with draft position included in parentheses. It's worth remembering that the vast majority of players who are invited to the Combine end up with NFL teams, even if they are not selected in the Draft.

2012 (3): DT Mike Martin (TBD), WR Junior Hemingway (TBD), David Molk (TBD)

2011 (2): LB Jonas Mouton (2nd), Stephen Schilling (6th)

2010 (5): OLB Brandon Graham (1st), P Zoltan Mesko (5th), S Stevie Brown (7th)*, CB Donovan Warren (undrafted), RB Brandon Minor (undrafted)

2009 (4): DT Terrance Taylor (4th), CB Morgan Trent (6th), LS Sean Griffin (undrafted), DE Tim Jamison (undrafted)

2008 (7): OT Jake Long (1st), QB Chad Henne (2nd), LB Shawn Crable (3rd), WR Mario Manningham (3rd), RB Mike Hart (6th), WR Adrian Arrington (7th), SS Jamar Adams (undrafted)

2007 (6): CB Leon Hall (1st), DT Alan Branch (2nd), LB LaMarr Woodley (2nd), LB David Harris (2nd ), WR Steve Breaston (5th), LB Prescott Burgess (6th)

2006 (5): DT Gabe Watson (4th), WR Jason Avant (4th), TE Tim Massaquai (7th), OL Adam Stenavich (undrafted), LB Pierre Woods (undrafted)

2005 (7): WR Braylon Edwards (1st), CB Marlin Jackson (1st), OG David Bass (2nd), CB Markus Curry (undrafted), FB Kevin Dudley (undrafted), P Adam Finley (undrafted), S Earnest Shazor (undrafted)

2004 (5): RB Chris Perry (1st), CB Jeremy LeSueur (3rd), QB John Navarre (7th), OT Tony Pape (7th), OL David Pearson (undrafted)

2003 (7): LB Victor Hobson (2nd), TE Bennie Joppru (2nd), FB B.J. Askew (3rd), QB Drew Henson (6th), SS Cato June (6th), FS Charles Drake (7th), WR Ronald Bellamy (undrafted)

2002 (4): WR Marquise Walker (3rd), LB Larry Foote (4th), OG Jonathan Goodwin (5th), K Hayden Epstein (7th)

2001 (6): OT Jeff Backus (1st), OL Steve Hutchinson (1st), WR David Terrell (1st), RB Anthony Thomas (2nd), OT Maurice Williams (2nd), CB James Whitley (undrafted)

2000 (7): LB Ian Gold (2nd), FB Aaron Shea (4th), DT Josh Williams (4th), LB Dhani Jones (6th), QB Tom Brady (6th), DE James Hall (undrafted), WR Marcus Knight (undrafted)

1999 (8): OT Jon Jansen (2nd), TE Jerame Tuman (5th), WR Tai Streets (6th), CB Andre Weathers (7th), RB Clarence Williams (undrafted), QB Scott Dreisbach (undrafted), SS Marcus Ray (undrafted), LB Sam Sword (undrafted)

*Not invited to the Combine

Average number of Michigan players participating in the Combine: 5.4

Average number of Michigan players selected in the Draft: 4.1

Average Draft position: 3.8th round

Review of 2006 Recruiting: The Running Backs

The Roster
Michael Hart, Jr.
Kevin Grady, So.
Jerome Jackson, Sr.
Mister Simpson, RS Fr.

The Recruits


Carlos Brown
High school: Heard County High School in Franklin, GA
Ratings: Rivals 4-star and #5 RB; Scout 4-star and #24 RB
Other notable offers: Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina
College: Michigan
Scoop: Brown arrived when the starting job was locked down by Michael Hart and probably should have redshirted as a freshman, when he contributed only 16 carries for 41 yards as the sixth-leading ground gainer.  He made 12 starts over the next three years, several of which came when Michigan's starters (Michael Hart, Brandon Minor) were injured.  Brown led the team in rushing with 480 yards as a senior in 2009, despite missing several games due to injury.  He finished his career with 201 carries for 1,025 yards (5.1 YPC) and 8 touchdowns.  He also caught 14 passes for 135 yards and 1 touchdown and returned 19 kickoffs for 386 yards.  The lightning-fast running back was known for three things: speed (85- and 90-yard touchdown runs in his carer), an inability to break tackles (witness the phantom tackle by an EMU safety), and injury (freshman inexperience aside, he played in only 21 of 37 games from 2007-2009 - which meant he was available only 57% of the time).  He went undrafted in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Brandon Minor
High school: Varina High School in Richmond, VA
Ratings: Rivals 4-star and #1 FB; Scout 4-star and #29 RB
Other notable offers: Florida, Miami, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
College: Michigan
Scoop: Just like Brown, Minor arrived at a time when Michael Hart was an established starter.  Minor was second on the team as a freshman with 238 yards rushing, behind only Hart.  Minor started only six games from 2007-2009 and had injury problems that limited his playing time, despite playing in 32 out of 37 possible games in those years.  He led the team in rushing his final two seasons, led the team in scoring in 2008, and finished with less than a 5.2-yards-per-carry average only once in his career (2007).  He finished his career with 331 carries for 1,658 yards (5.0 YPC) and 20 touchdowns.  He also caught 10 passes for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns and returned 14 kickoffs for 261 yards.  Minor was voted All-Big Ten Honorable Mention as a junior and prior to his senior season, he was on the Maxwell and Doak Walker Awards' watch lists.  He went undrafted in the 2011 NFL Draft.

Knowshon Moreno
High school: Middletown South High School in Middletown, NJ
Ratings: Rivals 4-star and #10 RB; Scout 4-star and #9 RB
Other notable offers: Florida, Miami, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech
College: Georgia
Scoop: Moreno redshirted in 2006 due to the presence of a trio of talented backs in Thomas Brown, Kregg Lumpkin, and Danny Ware.  However, he burst onto the scene as a redshirt freshman in 2007 with 1,334 yards on 248 carries and 14 touchdowns that season.  Moreno was even better in 2008, when he had 250 carries for 1,400 yards and 16 touchdowns.  For his career, Moreno had 498 carries for 2,733 yards (5.5 YPC) and 30 touchdowns.  He also caught 53 passes for 645 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Moreno was drafted in the 1st round (#12 overall) by the Denver Broncos in 2009.  In two seasons he has 429 carries for 1,726 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Cameron Smith
High school: Brookwood High Schoo in Snellville, GA
Ratings: Rivals 4-star and #20 RB; Scout 4-star and #21 RB
Other notable offers: California, Oregon, Purdue, Virginia
College: N/A
Scoop: There were rumors that Smith wouldn't qualify, and I can't find any information about a college football career.

Chris Wells
High school: Garfield High School in Akron, OH
Ratings: Rivals 5-star and #1 RB; Scout 5-star and #1 RB
Other notable offers: USC
College: Ohio State
Scoop: Wells shared time with Antonio Pittman as a freshman in 2006, but still had 576 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Wells started in both 2007 and 2008 and totaled 481 carries for 2,806 yards (5.8 YPC) and 23 touchdowns.  He also caught 14 passes for 63 yards.  Wells was drafted in the 1st round (#31 overall) by the Arizona Cardinals in 2009.  He's been a backup running back for the Cardinals for two seasons with 292 carries for 1,190 yards 9 touchdowns

Conclusions
Michigan didn't offer many running backs in the 2006 class, but 4 out of the 5 were pretty successful in college.  Injuries derailed the careers of both Michigan commits, but both also averaged over five yards a carry in their careers.  Minor was a tough inside runner with the ability to break tackles and big runs, and Brown was a home run threat with two 85+ yard touchdown runs and a 61-yard touchdown reception in limited time.  His 201 career carries were less than Moreno or Wells ever had as starters in any season.

Biggest miss: Wells.  Even though he was the lower pick in the 2009 draft compared to Moreno, he hurt Michigan with 222 yards and a backbreaking touchdown run in the 2007 version of The Game.

Biggest bust: Smith.  Brown was rated higher on Rivals, but Smith never made it to college at all.  Even though it was frustrating to watch Brown get tackled so easily and injured so often, he was also exciting to watch when he was on the field.  I would rather watch Brown than a ghost.

Best in class: Moreno.  Arguments could be made for Wells, LeSean McCoy (2nd round pick out of Pitt, current starter for Philadelphia Eagles), or Dexter McCluster (2nd round pick out of Ole Miss, punt returner and backup RB for Kansas City Chiefs).  But Moreno was the highest draft pick of the four, had an excellent college career, and seems to have a decent NFL career in the works.  Wells has been a disappointment in the NFL, McCoy played in a subpar Big East conference, and McCluster is more of a scatback than an every-down player.

2006 Offer Board

QUARTERBACK (9)
David Cone - Statesboro, GA (Michigan)
Mitch Mustain - Sprindale, AR (Arkansas)
Neil Caudle - Hoover, AL (Auburn)
Tim Tebow - Ponte Vedra Beach, FL (Florida)
Matthew Stafford - Dallas, TX (Georgia)
Pat Devlin - Exton, PA (Penn State)
Dexter Davidson - Coconut Creek, FL (Pittsburgh)
Nick Stephens - Flower Mound, TX (Tennessee)
Taylor Potts - Abilene, TX (Texas Tech)

RUNNING BACK (6)
Carlos Brown - Franklin, GA (Michigan)
Brandon Minor - Richmond, VA (Michigan)
Cameron Smith - Snellville, GA
Knowshon Moreno - Middletown, NJ (Georgia)
Aaron Gant - Orchard Lake, MI (Ohio State)
Chris Wells - Akron, OH (Ohio State)

WIDE RECEIVER (9)
Greg Mathews - Orlando, FL (Michigan)
Damian Williams - Springdale, AR (Arkansas)
Chris Slaughter - Fort Valley, GA (Auburn)
Percy Harvin - Virginia Beach, VA (Florida)
Tony Wilson - Daytona Beach, FL (Georgia)
Derrell Johnson - Youngstown, OH (Iowa)
Robby Parris - Cleveland, OH (Notre Dame)
Chris Bell - Norfolk, VA (Penn State)
David Ausberry - Lemoore, CA (USC)

TIGHT END (6)
Dedrick Epps - Richmond, VA (Miami)
Will Yeatman - San Diego, CA (Notre Dame)
Jake Ballard - Springboro, OH (Ohio State)
Andrew Quarless - Uniondale, NY (Penn State)
Nate Byham - Polk, PA (Pittsburgh)
Dorin Dickerson - Imperial, PA (Pittsburgh)

OFFENSIVE TACKLE (9)
Perry Dorrestein - Plainfield, IL (Michigan)
Stephen Schilling - Bellevue, WA (Michigan)
Alex Stadler - Bealeton, VA (Alabama)
Jim Barrie - Tampa, FL (Florida)
Marcus Gilbert - Fort Lauderdale, FL (Florida)
Daron Rose - Tampa, FL (Florida State)
Bartley Webb - Springdale, AR (Notre Dame)
Connor Smith - Cincinnati, OH (Ohio State)
Sam Young - Fort Lauderdale, FL (USC)

OFFENSIVE GUARD (3)
Justin Boren - Pickerington, OH (Michigan)
Justin Anderson - Ocilla, GA (Georgia)
Joe Thomas - Parma, OH (Pittsburgh)

CENTER (0)

DEFENSIVE END (8)
Greg Banks - Denver, CO (Michigan)
Brandon Graham - Detroit, MI (Michigan)
Adam Patterson - Columbia, SC (Michigan)
Quintin Woods - Flint, MI (Michigan)
John Paul - Immokalee, FL
Micah Johnson - Fort Campbell, KY (Kentucky)
McKenzie Matthews - Syracuse, NY (Pittsburgh)
Jason Adjepong - Carteret, NJ (Virginia Tech)

DEFENSIVE TACKLE (8)
John Ferrara - Staten Island, NY (Michigan)
Jason Kates - Harrisburg, PA (Michigan)
Marques Slocum - New Berlin, NY (Michigan)
Corey Peters - Louisville, KY (Kentucky)
Dexter Larimore - Merrillville, IN (Ohio State)
Jason Pinkston - Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh)
Butch Lewis - Aurora, CO (USC)
Neil A'asa - Big Rapids, MI (Utah)

LINEBACKER (9)
Obi Ezeh - Grand Rapids, MI (Michigan)
Cobrani Mixon - Cincinnati, OH (Michigan)
Jonas Mouton - Venice, CA (Michigan)
Quintin Patilla - Flint, MI (Michigan)
Akeem Hebron - Gaithersburg, MD (Georgia)
Toryan Smith - Rome, GA (Notre Dame)
Thaddeus Gibson - Euclid, OH (Ohio State)
Michael Morgan - Dallas, TX (USC)
Joshua Tatum - Oakland, CA (USC)

CORNERBACK (3)
Jai Eugene - Destrehan, LA (LSU)
Ken Tinney - New Berlin, NY (Michigan State)
Darrin Walls - Pittsburgh, PA (Notre Dame)

SAFETY (8)
Steve Brown - Columbus, IN (Michigan)
Jamar Hornsby - Jacksonville, FL (Florida)
Myron Rolle - Princeton, NJ (Florida State)
Asher Allen - Tucker, GA (Georgia)
Reshad Jones - Atlanta, GA (Georgia)
Taylor Mays - Seattle, WA (USC)
Antwine Perez - Camden, NJ (USC)
Franchot Allen - New Berlin, NY (West Virginia)

KICKER (1)
Bryan Wright - Salem, OH (Michigan)

The All-Rodriguez Team: Offense

Denard Robinson makes fatties look fat.

In case you can't tell, I like to make lists.  And depth charts.  And lineups.  This has nothing to do with football.  But when I was about thirteen years old, I laid down in my living room with a piece of paper and a pen.  I wrote down a batting order for my favorite team, the Detroit Tigers.  And the Atlanta Braves.  And the Chicago Cubs.  And, what the hell, the rest of Major League Baseball, too.

From memory.  If you wanted to know the emergency catcher for the Montreal Expos, I was your man (er, well, boy).

So here's another list.  I've often thought about the best players to come through Michigan during the years of my fanaticism, and this one is narrowed down to the Rodriguez years.  Which players in the past few years turned out the best seasons for what amounted to be Michigan's worst three consecutive years in program history?  Despite the 15-22 record over Rodriguez's tenure, we had some pretty good individual players.  But as you might expect, the majority of them (nine out of eleven) were on the 2010 squad that had a winning record and played in a bowl game.

QB: Denard Robinson (2010)
182-for-291 passing, 2570 yards, 18 touchdowns, 11 interceptions
256 carries, 1799 yards, 14 touchdowns
This is a no-brainer.  For half the season, he was on pace to win the Heisman.

RB: Brandon Minor (2008)
103 carries, 563 yards, 5.2 yards per carry, 9 touchdowns
Minor made an entire season out of one career.  He had 331 carries for 1,658 yards and 20 touchdowns over his four years.  Unfortunately, he couldn't stay healthy for any length of time, and 2008 was his best season, despite only starting four games that year.

WR: Junior Hemingway (2010)
32 catches, 593 yards, 4 touchdowns
Hemingway made some spectacular plays in 2010, catching some deep balls, running after the catch, and channeling Houdini on a 45-yard catch and run against Illinois.  He didn't put up spectacular overall numbers, but averaging 18.5 yards per reception is pretty nice.

WR: Darryl Stonum (2010)
49 catches, 633 yards, 4 touchdowns
Stonum became somewhat dependable as a junior in 2010, finishing second on the team with 49 receptions.  He only averaged 12.9 yards per catch, but that was largely a function of the routes he was asked to run and - I'll say it - some inaccuracy on Denard Robinson's part.  His numbers could have been better, but there were several occasions where Stonum had to contort his body or dive for a ball thrown by Robinson.  His 66-yard catch and run on a slip screen against UMass was a thing of beauty, though.

SR: Roy Roundtree (2010)
72 catches, 935 yards, 7 touchdowns
I feel bad that I couldn't include Martavious Odoms on this squad, but Roundtree's numbers are unimpeachable.  Sure, they could have been better (he suffered from the dropsies late in the year), but Roundtree turned in the single best receiving performance of the Rodriguez era this past season.  He made some clutch receptions and showed some nifty running ability with two 74+ yard receptions on the year.

TE: Kevin Koger (2010)
14 catches, 199 yards, 2 touchdowns
Koger put up better numbers in 2009 than 2010, but I thought he improved overall as a player from his sophomore to his junior year.  Koger had some maddening drops in 2009, which fell off somewhat in the next year.  I also think Koger's blocking improved, which led him to be used as a sort of H-back to lead the way for Denard Robinson and the running backs.

LT: Mark Ortmann (2009)
This won't be the popular pick because everyone loves Taylor Lewan.  And I love Taylor Lewan, too.  The problem was that he had too many drive-killing penalties (false starts, personal fouls, etc.).  Lewan certainly has more talent, but Ortmann was a solid player who didn't make the same kinds of mental mistakes.

LG: Steve Schilling (2010)
Schilling spent his first couple seasons playing right tackle, which was a bad fit.  He moved to guard in 2009 and then, in my opinion, improved significantly from his junior year to his senior year.  His understanding of the guard position improved, and his work with the strength and conditioning program seemed to bolster his athleticism as time went on.

C: David Molk (2010)
I almost picked the 2008 version of Molk, simply because he was such a revelation for Michigan football fans that season.  His ability to reach block defensive tackles gave us an idea of what the offensive line would look like in the years to come.  But Molk was even better in 2010, paving the way for Denard Robinson's 1,700 rushing yards.  The best thing about Molk, though?  Unlike the other centers who filled in when Molk was injured in 2009, his snaps were quick, accurate, and dependable.

RG: Patrick Omameh (2010)
Omameh still has room to improve.  He's a little bit of an odd fit at guard, standing 6'5" and only weighing about 300 lbs.  He has the body of a tackle, but fit well at guard for Rodriguez.  He still got overpowered at times, but his athleticism was key in getting to the second level.  Witness Denard's 87-yard run against Notre Dame, on which Omameh latched onto linebacker Manti Te'o four yards downfield, drove him another six, and then pancaked him into the ground.

RT: Perry Dorrestein (2010)
Right tackle was the weakest offensive line position over the three years, going from Steve Schilling in 2008 to Dorrestein and Mark Huyge in 2009 and 2010.  While not a star, Dorrestein was the best of the three.  He didn't make a lot of outstanding plays, but linemen are a little like officials - if you don't notice them, they're probably doing an okay job.

Am I expecting too much from Michigan's running backs?

Brandon Minor was Michigan's most successful running back of the Rich Rodriguez era.

If you're a frequent reader, I'm sure you're aware that I've been unhappy with the performance of some of the running backs over the past few seasons.  Due to some recent conversations with fellow fans, I started to wonder: am I expecting too much from Michigan running backs? 

So I thought I'd do some research.  Below you'll find a listing of the explosive runs (20+ yards) by each starting running back for the last couple decades.  I don't have access to each and every run, so what I used was a player's longest explosive play from each particular game.  The weakness here is that a player with two 20+ yard runs in one game (say, a 50-yarder and a 25-yarder) only has the 50-yarder listed.  Additionally, the maximum number of plays to be listed is 13 (the most games Michigan has played in any given season) and the minimum is 0.

NOTE: I listed each of the team's top few rushers in the Rodriguez years just for recent comparison's sake.  However, the player with the most carries is highlighted in yellow.

Denard Robinson 2010 (256 carries): 87, 72, 47, 32, 32, 29, 24, 20, 20

Michael Cox 2010 (6 carries): 35
Michael Shaw 2010 (75 carries): 50, 39, 21
Vincent Smith 2010 (136 carries): 56
Carlos Brown 2009 (81 carries): 90, 41
Michael Cox 2009 (13 carries): 57, 24
Brandon Minor 2009 (96 carries): 55, 32
Denard Robinson 2009 (31 carries): 38, 36
Michael Shaw 2009 (42 carries): 22
Vincent Smith 2009 (48 carries): 37
Sam McGuffie 2008 (118 carries): 29, 26, 21
Brandon Minor 2008 (109 carries): 45, 40, 36, 34, 32, 21, 20
Michael Shaw 2008 (41 carries): 48, 30
Mike Hart 2007 (265 carries): 61, 54, 37, 23, 23
Mike Hart 2006 (318 carries): 54, 42, 33, 23, 23, 22, 21
Mike Hart 2005 (150 carries): 64, 20
Mike Hart 2004 (282 carries): 34, 33, 32, 26
Chris Perry 2003 (338 carries): 63, 41, 30, 27, 25, 21
Chris Perry 2002 (267 carries): 57, 43, 34, 23
B.J. Askew 2001 (199 carries): 30, 30, 25, 20
Anthony Thomas 2000 (319 carries): 68, 61, 54, 35, 32, 28, 25, 21

Anthony Thomas 1999 (301 carries): 60, 39, 31, 26, 23, 20

Anthony Thomas 1998 (166 carries): 80, 69, 59, 36, 24

Chris Howard 1997 (199 carries): 51, 30, 29, 28, 28, 27
Clarence Williams 1996 (202 carries): 32, 30, 26, 21
Tim Biakabutuka 1995 (303 carries): 60, 47, 47, 44, 37, 35, 34, 20, 20

Tyrone Wheatley 1994 (210 carries): 67, 36, 34, 24, 24, 22, 21, 20

Tyrone Wheatley 1993 (207 carries): 59, 47, 45, 43, 26, 25, 25

Tyrone Wheatley 1992 (185 carries): 88, 82, 54, 30, 23, 22

Ricky Powers 1991 (240 carries): 48, 39, 36, 33, 21

Next you'll see a chart of the top running back's rushing average for each of the past 20 seasons.  You'll notice that after Tyrone Wheatley and Tshimanga Biakabutuka departed, the running backs usually alternated one or two good years with one or two poor years.

Do those numbers have anything to do with wins?  Probably not.  The same chart as above, overlaid with the wins for each year:

CONCLUSIONS

1. Denard Robinson is awesome, as if you didn't already know.  He had a 20+ yard run in nine out of the thirteen games he played in 2010.  In the last twenty years, that number has been matched only by Tshimanga Biakabutuka in 1995.

2. Anthony Thomas was more of a big play guy than I thought.  He had at least seven rushes of 50+ yards in his career.

3. The number of carries for Michigan running backs dwindled greatly in the Rodriguez years.  From 1991 to 2007, eight running backs had 250+ carries in a season.  From 2008-2010, the highest number of carries for a running back was Vincent Smith's 136 in 2010.  Even if you combine the top two running backs from the past three seasons, the highest total is McGuffie/Minor's 227 back in 2008.

4. As far as Michigan running backs go, Vincent Smith falls at the bottom of the heap when it comes to explosive plays.  In his two seasons at Michigan, he has two 20+ yard runs.  The closest one to Smith is the 2005 version of Mike Hart, who missed several games due to injury and got only 150 carries.  Hart's 64-yarder and 20-yarder in that year are actually pretty close to Smith's longest two runs from 2010 - a 56-yard touchdown and a 19-yard run.

5. For being an offensive genius, Rich Rodriguez sure didn't have a great effect on Michigan's running backs.  I don't think there's any question that Michigan's best running back during his tenure was Brandon Minor, but Minor (109) split carries pretty evenly with Sam McGuffie (118) in 2008.  That was followed by a 2009 in which no running back carried the ball more than 100 times.  Injuries played a big part in the production (or lack thereof) from Minor, Carlos Brown, McGuffie, Shaw, etc.

6. I'm probably overreacting a little bit to yards per carry.  There are certainly more important aspects to winning football games than simple yards per carry, like turnovers, defense, quarterback play, etc.  For example, Michigan didn't lose 13 games over the past two seasons just because Vincent Smith has been a mediocre running back - the horrible defense played the biggest role in losing most of those games.  But at the same time, the only players with the same or worse rushing averages than Smith were:

a) the often forgotten Clarence Williams in '96 on an eight-win team
b) Anthony Thomas in '99, whose 4.3 yards a carry was a full yard below each of his surrounding seasons
c) Chris Perry's subpar junior season in '02
d) Mike Hart's injury-plagued '05 year
e) Sam McGuffie's freshman year in '08, when he suffered from concussions and a horrible unit around him


SO WHO CARES?

Well, I do. 

But so do defenses.  When teams don't respect your running back's ability to make big plays, they can concentrate on stopping the pass.  Or, in the case of Denard Robinson-led teams, they can concentrate on stopping the quarterback.  The lack of a big-play threat to play alongside Robinson in the backfield limits his abilities to be as effective a runner as possible.  Imagine a zone read option offense with Tim Biakabutuka or Tyrone Wheatley standing next to Denard Robinson in the backfield.  Which one do you defend?  Or do you curl up into a fetal position and pretend you pulled a hamstring?

Furthermore, big plays take away the opportunity for a team to bog down going from Point A to Point B.  Long runs aren't just fun to watch - they serve a purpose.  A guy who moves the ball in small chunks might be a fine running back, but at some point his short gains might force a few punts when the offense fails to get a first down. 

Clearly, a guy like Biakabutuka doesn't guarantee you a big play every time he starts a new series.  But he can move the ball in large chunks, and his presence opens up the play action passing game and keeps the defense off balance.

WHAT SHOULD WE EXPECT IN 2011?

Better running back play.  That's the bottom line.  Over the last twenty years, Michigan's running backs have alternated good years with mediocre ones.  On the heels of a poor year from the Wolverines' backs, it seems Michigan is ready for an upswing in running back production.  Hoke seems committed to running the ball like Michigan used to do, and unlike a season such as 2008, the offensive line should be decent, despite losing a couple senior starters in Steve Schilling and Perry Dorrestein.  Whether it's Michael Shaw, Fitzgerald Toussaint, Stephen Hopkins, or someone else, the starting running back in 2011 should be better than in 2010.

Explanation of the Countdown

It shouldn't be a surprise that Brandon Graham was Michigan's MVP last year.

As I started the 2010 Season Countdown, I assumed (wrongly) that people would remember the series from last year. But after fielding several questions on the topic, I realized that . . . well . . . nobody really read my blog last year. This still isn't an extremely popular destination, but hey, 1,700+ hits for a full-time teacher and coach isn't bad.

On to the explanation . . .

The countdown is designed to highlight each player and offer some opinions and analysis on each one. They are listed in order of "Least Important" to "Most Important" for the 2010 season. In other words, Christian Pace is at the bottom of the list because he's the most likely to redshirt. Therefore, his impact on Michigan's 2010 performance will be almost nil.

Last year's 2009 Season Countdown had the following players in the top five:

1. Brandon Graham
2. Tate Forcier
3. Donovan Warren
4. Obi Ezeh
5. Brandon Minor

Now imagine if Brandon Graham had been lost to injury - Michigan would have lost 10.5 sacks and its defensive leader, and perhaps former walk-on Will Heininger would have drawn into the lineup. More likely, Ryan Van Bergen would have moved to defensive end full-time and Renaldo Sagesse, Greg Banks, or Will Campbell would have played 3-tech defensive tackle. Yeah . . . trading in Brandon Graham for Renaldo Sagesse - albeit a serviceable player - scares me, too.

Think about this: if Tate Forcier had been lost to injury and Denard Robinson had made the same number of passing attempts (281), Robinson's 12% interception rate would have translated to approximately thirty-three (33!) interceptions. Michigan fans would have been clamoring for Nick Sheridan.

Without Warren (and Boubacar Cissoko, who got booted off the team), imagine potentially having J.T. Floyd and Teric Jones as your starting corners. Yikes!

It turns out, Obi Ezeh was injured in 2009, which partly caused him to have his worst season as a starter. In his stead, Michigan played redshirt sophomore, 206 lb. Kevin Leach.

I probably overestimated Brandon Minor's importance to the team, since there were other running backs to pick up the slack. I still maintain that Minor was Michigan's best back for the past two seasons, but the drop-off between Minor and Carlos Brown isn't nearly as significant as, say, Brandon Graham to Will Heininger or from Forcier's 13 interceptions to Robinson's estimated 33 picks.

So I'm presenting the 2010 Season Countdown. On average, one player will be revealed each day until the beginning of the season, and the #1 guy is - in my estimation - the most important player for Michigan's success this coming season.

2010 NFL Draft Preview

Brandon Graham attempting to kill Tim Hiller

Brandon Graham - DE/OLB
Graham is certain to be Michigan's highest drafted player, projected by most "experts" as a mid-1st to early-2nd round pick. At 6'1" and 268 lbs., he's likely too short to play defensive end in a 4-3 scheme. There are very few 4-3 teams who like to play undersized ends like Graham. He's more likely to be drafted to play outside linebacker by a team that runs a 3-4 scheme. Luckily for him, there has been a recent uptick in the number of teams who run base 3-4 fronts. He has excellent straight-line speed and benches 495 lbs., according to Michigan strength coach Mike Barwis. He suffered from a lack of conditioning and discipline early in his career at Michigan, but the last two years have seen Graham turn into a leader on and off the field. The effort level is there now in a way that it wasn't when he was a freshman and sophomore.
Projection and potential destinations: 1st round between picks 12-29 (Miami, Seattle, New England, Green Bay, Arizona, New York Jets)

Donovan Warren - CB/S
After Graham, nobody is guaranteed to get drafted. Warren hurt himself with a couple slow 40 times, although his game speed was better than the reported 4.68 he ran at the NFL Combine. He's run so slow, in fact, that some teams have suggested Warren might fit better as a safety in the NFL. Warren left Michigan after his junior season, but his production was less than one might expect from a "shutdown" Michigan corner. He's a solid tackler with average ball skills. He offers no additional skills as a return man and, for the most part, doesn't have the athleticism to be a big threat on interception returns. His upside is low, but he performed well enough on the field (although not necessarily in workouts) to warrant a late round pick. If he plays cornerback in the NFL, I think it has to be for a team that plays a good deal of Cover 2. Otherwise, he's a free safety in the making.
Projection and potential destinations: 6th round (Tampa Bay, Chicago, Indianapolis, Green Bay, New England, Minnesota)

Zoltan Mesko - P
Mesko is generally considered to be the second-best punter in the draft. He gets excellent hangtime, which prevents him from outkicking his coverage. I always wondered if the rugby-style punts that Rich Rodriguez employs would hurt Mesko's ability to be a straight dropback punter, and for whatever reason, his workouts for pro teams have reportedly been subpar. Those two things might not be related, but it's interesting to consider. He was voted captain of Michigan's team in 2009, so he's likely not a Mike Vanderjagt-like bonehead of a specialist. His lack of kickoff experience might hurt him in the eyes of some general managers. On the plus side, he did 16 reps on the bench press at 225 lbs.
Projection and potential destinations: 7th round (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Miami, Denver)

Brandon Minor - RB
You will find no bigger fan of Brandon Minor than me. I love the way he runs the ball, his power, and the way he finishes runs. He also has underrated speed. Unfortunately, he rarely stayed healthy at Michigan, which hurt his production and surely NFL personnel people have flagged him for his injuries. Minor averaged over 5.0 yards per carry in his final two college seasons and he's an excellent pass blocker. I don't think NFL teams will spend a draft pick on a guy who spent so much time on the sideline, but if he somehow stays healthy, Minor is the type of guy who I could see having a 10-year NFL career. He reminds me of former Tennessee Volunteer and Detroit Lion Shawn Bryson, although Bryson had better speed.
Projection: Undrafted

Stevie Brown - SS
Brown came to Michigan as a cornerback/free safety tweener. By his senior year in 2009, he was an undersized strongside linebacker because he couldn't cover in open space. He's too indecisive to play free safety in the NFL and too small to play linebacker, but he could be a special teams contributor and backup strong safety on an NFL roster. His ball skills are somewhat lacking, but he ran a 4.55 at Michigan's pro day and he brings some kick coverage skills to the table. He is a solid tackler in limited space and he can be an effective blitzer, so I see him as an in-the-box safety type.
Projection and potential destinations: Undrafted (Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Arizona, New York Jets, Baltimore)

Mark Ortmann - OT
Ortmann has excellent size at 6'6" and 295 lbs. He was a solid but unspectacular starter at left guard and left tackle in his final two years. He has long arms and decent mobility, and I always thought Ortmann would turn out to be an above average player. However, he's not the mauler that NFL general managers might be looking for. Even mediocre Michigan linemen have always been given a shot at the next level, so I expect Ortmann to get some looks. But ultimately he lacks the mobility and athleticism to play left tackle, and he lacks the strength and size to play right tackle. I could see him hanging around for a few years on practice squads or as a backup, but I don't see him being an NFL starter at any point.
Projection: Undrafted

Carlos Brown - RB
Brown was one of the most hyped members of Michigan's 2006 class due to his speed, but the production on the field never really matched the hype. While he has the speed to outrun even NFL players, Brown rarely makes it past the second level of defenders. In 20+ years of watching Michigan football, I can't remember a running back that seemingly went down with as little contact. Brown stops his feet on contact and almost never gains yardage on second effort. He does have good hands and could be a third down back, but to me, he's not a first- or second-string back. His ceiling seems to be as an end-of-the-bench, situational back who might be able to return an occasional kickoff.
Projection: Undrafted

David Moosman - OG
At 6'5" and 292 lbs., Moosman is a little small to be an offensive guard in the NFL. He needs to pack on some weight to have a chance. Moosman started 23 of his last 24 games at Michigan and split time between guard and center. Unfortunately, the team's struggles with him at center hint that a future snapping the ball might be out of the question. I think he's strictly a guard prospect. Moosman is decently athletic and was rarely beaten at the guard position. He's not someone who will wow you with his strength, but he has solid technique and he battles. To have a chance at sticking in the NFL, he needs to play for a zone running team like Indianapolis, Atlanta, or Washington.
Projection: Undrafted

Players are listed in order of their likelihood to be drafted, as determined by yours truly.

Ohio State 21, Michigan 10

Brandon Graham was the best player on the field.

Bullet point immediate reactions:

• Brandon Graham had a great game. He is perhaps the player from the senior class that I will miss most. He dominated his side of the line repeatedly, ending the game with a sack amongst 4 or 5 tackles for loss.
• I really thought Brandon Minor would play, but he was in street clothes. His inside running was missed in this game, as the running game was forced to play the third- and fourth-string running backs (Michael Shaw and Vincent Smith) with Carlos Brown also limited.
• Vincent Smith might be Michigan's running back of the future. He doesn't have the speed to be a game-breaker, but he gains yards consistently, runs tough for his size, and makes decisive cuts. I was wrong about him being unready to play this year.
• The defense played extremely well in this game. For the most part, Michigan didn't allow the big play. They did allow the 29-yard TD by Brandon Saine, but OSU picked on walk-on DE Will Heininger on that play.
• J.T. Floyd got picked on and was beaten a couple times. Fortunately, OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor was horribly inaccurate on the two deep balls he threw. I still maintain that Floyd's future should be at safety, but I liked the move by the coaches to move Troy Woolfolk back to safety and re-insert Floyd at cornerback. It may not have helped Michigan significantly, but it certainly didn't hurt.
• Speaking of Pryor, I've been thinking this all season but had no reason to mention OSU sooner - why does a 6'5", 230 pound, speedy guy run like such a pansy? He runs through arm tackles, but anytime someone gets a chance to tackle him solidly, he wusses out. He either stops moving his feet and collapses into the fetal position, or he prances out of bounds. For example, when he scrambled early in the game and Steve Brown came up to pop him near the sideline, both players bounced off each other, Pryor gathered himself and had a chance to gain two more yards, and he . . . side-stepped out of bounds.
• Tate Forcier had a horrible game. Ohio State didn't do anything too confusing defensively. Forcier just made bad reads and bad throws. And that fumble on the opening offensive series was inexcuseable. Not only did Forcier retreat into his own end zone, but then he didn't tuck the ball away when he scrambled. He's been lucky all year that his lack of ball security didn't cost him more, but it showed up in the biggest game of the year.
• I liked the wrinkle where Denard Robinson started in the backfield, shifted to wide receiver, and ran a fly pattern. I did not like the facts that a) Forcier underthrew him and b) Denard was interfered with by the cornerback and it wasn't called. Denard was clearly being pushed while the ball was in the air, and it wasn't an instance where both players were jostling each other. That was a textbook interference call and the officials blew it.
• I did not like the modified pistol formation. Out of shotgun, Shaw lined up as the deep back with a fullback to either side of Forcier. It led the defense to the play each time, and Michigan didn't show a play to complement it.
• Roy Roundtree looks like he might be the next Michigan wide receiver to wear the #1 jersey.
• For the love of all that is good, can Michigan please install the sprint counter draw? It worked against Michigan for the thousandth time over the last several years, where the shotgun QB takes the snap and rolls toward the running back, who pretends to block and then takes the handoff going in the opposite direction. Ohio State, Michigan State, Oregon, and Purdue have all torched Michigan with that play, and those are just the times I can think of off the top of my head. I have never seen Michigan run that play, but it works every time against us.
• I will miss Brandon Minor, Brandon Graham, Greg Mathews, Mark Ortmann, David Moosman, and Steve Brown. All of these players are good to great college players, and it's disappointing that their careers coincided with such a huge reconstruction project for the program. They might have been here during a couple bad years, but they weren't the reasons for these two losing seasons.
• Go Blue!

Illinois 38, Michigan 13

Carlos Brown taken down on first contact? Inconceivable!
Nope...wait a minute...yeah, that's conceivable.

This was a day that will go down in history as . . . a loss to Illinois.

What I learned from Saturday was that Rich Rodriguez is not the savior of the Michigan program. He is not a genius who can make lemonade out of . . . I don't know . . . used bicycle tires. He is a football coach who has huge flaws, especially when his team has huge flaws itself.

Illinois was a 1-win football team before Saturday, and that win didn't even come against an FBS school. They beat the winningest program in college football history, and it wasn't even close. Michigan's inexperienced and untalented defense gave up 500 yards total, 377 of which came on the ground. Illinois had not one 100-yard rusher, but two (running backs Micheal Leshoure and Jason Ford) . . . and that's not counting the 97 yards rushing from their nearly-benched starting quarterback, Juice Williams.

In last week's game against Penn State, the offense seemed to blame. They consistently failed to give Michigan's defense a chance. This week both sides of the ball seem to have regressed from earlier in the year. Michigan continues to turn the ball over on offense (3 fumbles) while failing to get turnovers on defense (uhhh . . . 0 fumbles, 0 interceptions). Prior to Saturday's game, Michigan was 105th in the country. I'm assuming they're even lower now, although I refuse to look up the stats.

I have to admit that I turned off the game with a few minutes left in the third quarter. I'm usually very calm when watching games on TV, but when free safety Mike Williams lost contain on Juice Williams for about the tenth time on the zone read option, I screamed "Stop doing that!" at the TV. I figured that meant I had had enough, so I shut it off. Mike Williams goes full speed all the time. Unfortunately, he's often aimed in the wrong direction, despite racking up 16 tackles. Other leading tacklers this year include walk-on safety Jordan Kovacs and walk-on linebacker Kevin Leach, so when safeties and/or slow, undersized quasi-linebackers are notching the majority of your takedowns, something is wrong.

Speaking of something horribly wrong . . . 38-13. Against a one-win team. A one-win team that led by a score of only 14-13 at halftime.

Offensive game ball goes to...Roy Roundtree? Sure. I guess. I don't know. The offense only mustered one touchdown and two field goals against a bad defense. Choices are slim.

Defensive game ball goes to...Brandon Graham. Seven tackles, one sack, one blocked punt.

Let's see less of this guy on offense...Carlos Brown. I can't believe Rich Rodriguez left Brown in on the goal line. That was the most ridiculous coaching decision from yesterday. Brown is fast, but he hasn't broken a tackle since that one time in his freshman year when he was playing Madden and hit the truck stick. If Minor is healthy enough to come in on fourth down, he's healthy enough to come in on first down. And if he's not? Put Moundros in at fullback and Kevin Grady at tailback. Hell, put John McColgan in at fullback with Grady at tailback. Put Vincent Smith or Michael Shaw at tailback. Brown pussy-footed his way into the hole on 3rd down (maybe 2nd down) and I let out a loud sigh. That whole set of downs was asinine.

Let's see less of this guy on defense...Michael Williams. I'm sorry for predicting that he would/should start at safety prior to the season. I thought he was better than this. He's not. He was single-handedly responsible for Juice Williams's rushing TD and about 50 more of Juice's yards. My high schoolers can defend the zone read option better than he did. Put Troy Woolfolk back at strong safety, move Kovacs to free safety, and plug J.T. Floyd back in at cornerback. I'd rather have a bad cornerback than a bad safety.

Penn State 35, Michigan 10

Alex Smith expresses the sentiment of the day.

My thoughts on this game are incomplete. When Carlos Brown fumbled with about five minutes left in the third quarter, I headed out. Brandon Graham had just blocked a punt in Penn State's territory, and even though I knew Michigan probably wouldn't win (it was already 32-10), I thought Michigan might at least make it respectable.

Instead, I went to a charity cash party and gambled away money. Unfortunately, I was surrounded by Penn State fans.

Yesterday was an offensive abomination. I had issues with the playcalling and substitutions. Previously dependable players weren't dependable. Starting center David Molk returned only to get injured and force somewhat incompetent backup center David Moosman into action as the snapper. Penalties. Poor quarterback reads. Fumbles. Interceptions. It seems like every team has an absolutely horrible game once per year, and hopefully this is Michigan's final one this year.

Everyone and his mother knew the game was over when Michigan produced perhaps the worst offensive series of the year. Starting deep in Michigan's own territory, the Wolverines ran the ball on first down and Mark Ortmann got called for holding. The ball was on Michigan's 4-yard-line. Then Ortmann false started on (er, prior to) the next snap. Prior threw an incomplete pass on second down. Then Tate Forcier took a delay of game penalty, putting the ball on the 1. On third down, while Forcier was calling an audible and stepped to the side, David Moosman inexplicably snapped the ball out of the back of the end zone. Safety. The end.

Even though Michigan gave up 396 yards to Penn State, I really didn't think Michigan played horribly on that side of the ball. For the most part, I thought the players did pretty well. Just like on offense, Michigan was outsmarted.

PSU was able to isolate subpar defensive players in pass coverage. Starting middle linebacker Obi Ezeh was twice exposed, once against running back Evan Royster and once against tight end Andrew Quarless. But he had no business being one-on-one with Royster, who was lined up all the way on the sideline. And in a Tampa Two scheme (in which the two safeties play halves while the MIKE covers the deep middle), both Jordan Kovacs and Mike Williams failed to react to Quarless running straight up the middle of the field; meanwhile, backup Quick Brandon Herron failed to chuck Quarless coming off the line of scrimmage.

Michigan's cornerbacks also did a poor job of covering the wide receivers early in the game. They seemed to be trying to protect Michigan's young, inexperienced safeties and bailing out a little too quickly. This left PSU's receivers wide open on outs and hitches.

I'm depressing myself, so let's finish up.

Offensive game ball goes to...uhhh...Brandon Minor? I don't know. He led the team in rushing, scored a TD, and didn't fumble. Sure. Let's give it to him.

Defensive game ball goes to...Brandon Graham. He had 7 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and half a sack. I wouldn't even want to shake hands with that guy, as I would probably incur the most pain I've ever felt. Remember in the movie Speed how there were those big barrels of water on the highway to prevent stray cars from running into concrete barriers? Opposing quarterbacks would be wise to make their pads out of big barrels of water.

Let's see less of this guy on offense...Denard Robinson. He's not being used effectively, and that's on Rodriguez. I hate to say it, but I really haven't seen a single reason to believe that this guy should remain at quarterback for the remainder of his Michigan career. He's a turnover waiting to happen, especially on passing downs. Disregarding the Delaware State game, six of Robinson's 13 drives this year have ended in a turnover. Yesterday he was 0-for-2 with an interception and a fumble. He doesn't make good reads in the passing or running game. And absent the threat of the pass, Robinson's running abilities are becoming less and less effective. Rodriguez should use Robinson on occasional plays in the middle of drives or on two-QB plays at random times, but what's happening right now isn't working. So it needs to be changed.

Let's see less of this guy on defense...Obi Ezeh. I'm not saying he should lose his job, but he's not a three-down linebacker. I'd like to see defensive coordinator Greg Robinson start to mix in some 4-2-5 nickel packages. I like Michigan's four-man front with Roh in there. On obvious passing downs, Coach Robinson should remove Ezeh in favor of a third cornerback. I think Boubacar Cissoko would be a good slot corner, so the back seven would consist of linebackers Mouton and Steve Brown; corners Donovan Warren, Troy Woolfolk, and Cissoko; and safeties Kovacs and Williams.

Picture via TheWolverine.com

Iowa 30, Michigan 28

Single wing QB Denard Robinson

Well, last night was frustrating. Not only because we lost, but because the loss was self-inflicted. Five turnovers, blown coverages, bad coaching decisions. Michigan clearly seemed to be the more talented team, but luckily for Iowa, talent doesn't always win.

I would be remiss if I started this post with anything but a discussion of Rich Rodriguez's decision to go with freshman Denard Robinson on the last drive in the fourth quarter. That was the biggest decision of the night - and the worst, in my opinion - and it might have cost Michigan the game.

Assuming Rodriguez benched starter Tate Forcier because of Forcier's performance (8/19 for 94 yards and an INT, 8 carries for 26 yards), it was an indefensible decision. Two of Michigan's victories this season (Notre Dame and Indiana) are the direct result of Forcier's late-game heroics. Last week's near-victory against Michigan State came after Michigan was down 20-6 halfway through the fourth quarter and Forcier directed two touchdown drives. Meanwhile, backup Denard Robinson has had a couple electrifying TD runs while failing to pass the ball efficiently in spot duty this season. Prior to last night, Robinson was 4/11 for 57 yards, zero touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.

When Robinson entered the game in the second-to-last series last night, Forcier wasn't performing well. Michigan needed a spark. I understand that. Robinson completed two short passes on that drive and ended the series with a short TD run. The offense needed a spark? Mission accomplished.

But with 1:30 left and Michigan needing to go 80 yards with no timeouts, Rodriguez shouldn't have played the running quarterback, no matter how poorly Forcier had played to that point. Robinson is clearly a subpar passer and showed it when he badly overthrew a bracketed Junior Hemingway that resulted in the game-ending interception. Robinson finished the game 3/4 for 30 yards and 1 interception, which raised his passer efficiency rating to 55.39 on the season. By comparison, Forcier's PER is 133.11. Furthermore, Nick Sheridan's PER in 2008 was 81.08. That's right - Robinson is a significantly worse passer than Nick Sheridan. So not only should Forcier have been in the game at the end, but one could make the argument that Sheridan should have been in there instead of Robinson, too.

Now, some theories suggest that Forcier got benched because he and Rodriguez had words on the sideline. I didn't see evidence of that during the telecast, but it's possible. If that's true and Rodriguez was using the benching to teach Forcier a lesson, that might be a good reason. But if it was just based on their play, Forcier should have been on the field.

Otherwise, Michigan turned the ball over too much. The Wolverines fumbled, threw interceptions, muffed punts, etc. They achieved just about every method of turning the ball over. In between playing solid run defense (Iowa averaged 2.4 yards per rush), running the ball well (4.3 yards per carry), and playing decent pass coverage most of the time, Michigan gave the ball away too many times. You will rarely see a team win the game when they've turned the ball over four or five times.

Defensively, former starting cornerback Boubacar Cissoko was suspended for the game due to a violation of team rules. In his place, starting strong safety Troy Woolfolk moved over to cornerback. The starting safeties were walk-on Jordan Kovacs and redshirt sophomore Mike Williams. Woolfolk played better than either Cissoko or J.T. Floyd had earlier in the year, but Williams especially blew some coverages at key times. I can't blame him too much, as he's been playing close to the line for the past two years as almost a glorified outside linebacker. Michigan fans shouldn't expect that he'll be a great center fielder in his first extended playing time at the position, but he does have good speed and he's a solid tackler. If Woolfolk can solidify the cornerback position, I think Williams and Kovacs might be sufficient at the safety spots.

Offensive game ball goes to...the offensive line. The offensive line got destroyed last week against Michigan State, but center David Moosman (replacing the injured David Molk) made good snaps for the entire game and Michigan got a solid push from their undersized line against a strong Iowa front seven.

Defensive game ball goes to...Donovan Warren. He opened the game with a pick six and played pretty well for the rest of the game. He did get beat on a 47-yard pass on a 3rd-and-24, but that was at least partly because Mike Williams was slow to help from his safety position.

Let's see less of this guy on offense...Denard Robinson. Please, God, do not allow Rodriguez to put him on the field to pass the ball in key situations. He has a lower PER than Nick Sheridan and he can't run the full offense. Not only is he unable to pass the ball or even run the famed read option, but he also hasn't taken a single snap from under center (if I recall correctly) in the I-formation, which is the best way to run Brandon Minor. A large portion of the playbook goes out the window with Robinson in the game, and it's just QB draw, QB sweep right, QB draw, QB sweep left, QB draw, QB sweep right, onward to infinity.

Let's see less of this guy on defense...Boubacar Cissoko and J.T. Floyd. The rest of the defense played well except for the safeties, but there's no help coming for them. Kovacs and Williams need to improve with more experience and more reps. Meanwhile, while Cissoko didn't play at all and Floyd played sparingly, Woolfolk held his own at the cornerback position. Hopefully Greg Robinson keeps Woolfolk at corner and is able to coaches up those other safeties.

Michigan 36, Indiana 33

I've been busy this week. Between losing power on Thursday evening, not getting home until after midnight last night, and Saturday morning practice, I didn't have a chance to write a preview for the Indiana game. But these are the games that always scare me the most. Not the Toledo or Eastern Michigan or Appalachian State games, because we win most of those and if we don't, well, that's just how the cookie crumbles.

No, what scare me are the games against second-rate Big Ten teams like Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan State, etc. Those games are ones that shouldn't be huge impediments on the way to playing for a Big Ten title but too often rise up to bite you in the ass or at least make you nervous.

Today's game was no exception. Indiana made it tough on Michigan before the Wolverines eked one out in the last couple minutes.

Offensively, Michigan frustrated me more today than at any other time this year. They seemed completely out of sync for the majority of the game. Luckily, Carlos Brown scored two early touchdowns and Tate Forcier led two late TD drives in the fourth quarter. Between those points, though, Michigan looked discombobulated.

Replacement center David Moosman had troubles snapping the ball, and both Denard Robinson and Forcier had troubles handling it. Michigan has resurrected the freeze play, where the center snaps the ball when he sees someone jump offsides. It's supposed to earn Michigan five yards, which it did . . . once. But the freshman quarterbacks clearly aren't prepared to run it, and neither is Moosman, since he snapped the ball one time when Indiana defensive end Greg Middleton had already got back onside. In total, it lost yards for Michigan and could end up being a turnover if, for example, the snap on the Middleton play had bounced off Forcier's knee or facemask and ended up in the hands of a Hoosier.

The game always looks like it's going too fast for Denard Robinson. It's like I looked when I was little and watching my brother play Frogger; then my mom would call him to take the garbage out, I'd grab the joystick, adrenaline myself across the road, and then drown in the river. Robinson runs the ball well and has a limit of one good throw per game. He led one good drive today and made a nice throw on a seam route to Kevin Koger. After that play the coaches should have patted him on the dreadlocked head, said "Nice job," and handed him a baseball cap (until, of course, he was needed again once Forcier got hurt).

Offensive coordinator Calvin Magee went away from the running game for a while. I have no explanation for this. Carlos Brown started the game with a 61-yard TD on a screen pass, scored a 41-yard rushing TD on the next drive, and then became a bystander for a couple quarters. We can run the ball. Our co-starters at running back, Brown and Brandon Minor, had 23 carries for 123 yards. That's 5.3 yards per carry. But 23 carries is what ONE of those guys should have, not the combination of the two, especially when Forcier and Robinson combined for 21 rushes. The guys who earned scholarships for running the ball should run it, not the guys who earned scholarships for their throwing arms.

This is partly on Forcier as well. In my opinion, Forcier is horrible at running the read option. Even when the backside defensive end stays home to contain the quarterback, Forcier tries to make things happen on his own. He's simply not athletic enough to make it work. Hopefully his reads will improve as he gets more and more experience. I guess the coaches have to keep calling the play to keep the defense honest, but Forcier needs to realize that the best thing about that play is the element of surprise when he keeps the ball. If I were an opposing defensive coordinator, I would tell my defensive ends, "If you stay home, this chump is going to keep the ball a couple times when he shouldn't, and you better make him regret it."

Defensively, it really hurts to have so little depth and experience in the defensive backfield. I thought the linebackers played better than they did last week and the defensive line did an okay job, but our defensive backfield is in shambles. Donovan Warren made one poor tackle attempt, but the Indiana didn't want to test him much. Boubacar Cissoko was replaced early by J.T. Floyd, and neither played well. Meanwhile, strong safety Troy Woolfolk is a position-changer from cornerback who missed some tackles, and former walk-on Jordan Kovacs started at free safety and missed several assignments. Indiana took advantage of the inexperience on the back end, and you can bet that other Big Ten teams will, too. I think Michigan State will have an excellent day throwing the ball next week.

Offensive game ball goes to . . . Carlos Brown (2). He had 144 yards from scrimmage (83 rushing, 61 receiving) and two touchdowns. He ran the ball well most of the day, and what he lacks in toughness, he makes up for in home run ability.

Defensive game ball goes to . . . Jonas Mouton (1). Mouton led the team in tackles with 11 and had half a tackle for loss. He reacted slowly a couple times but he stepped up to fill a hole a couple times and made some nice hits. He didn't have a great game, but nobody really did.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . David Moosman (1). He can play guard. That's fine. He's a pretty good guard. In fact, with his main competition at center coming from redshirt freshman Rocko Khoury, he might well be our best center with starter David Molk out (broken foot). But I hope Molk is a quick healer. Moosman had a few bad snaps, and his quarterbacks didn't do a great job of bailing him out.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . J.T. Floyd (2). I think Cissoko re-injured his shoulder injury, but I have a hard time believing that freshmen Justin Turner and Teric Jones are significantly worse than Floyd. At this point, I have to believe the coaches are trying their best to preserve Turner's redshirt. Jones's has already been burned. But Floyd was responsible for at least three big plays today: 1) the missed pass break-up that ended in a big gain, 2) the 85-yard rush TD by Darius Willis in which Floyd made a poor attempt to tackle, and 3) the pass interference on the right sideline - the ball was uncatchable, but Floyd still had a hand full of jersey.

Michigan 45, Eastern Michigan 17

Hyperspeed: Engaged.

Yesterday's final score represented what most Michigan fans expected. The score before and during halftime . . . not so much. Michigan jumped out to a whopping 3-0 lead before Eastern Michigan tied it at 3-3. They were tied again at 10-10 and went into halftime with Michigan leading, 24-17.

The star of the game was Carlos Brown, who ran only eight times in the first half but gained 163 yards in that span. Brown started the game in place of Brandon Minor, who's still feeling the effects of a sprained ankle. It wasn't apparent that Minor was injured, so as the game went along, I thought to myself, "Brandon Minor must be a horrible teammate and completely uncoachable, because he's the best back on the team and they won't play him." In a way, I'm glad he was injured because I like him and I'm hoping those thoughts aren't true.

Star quarterback Tate Forcier had a bit of a tough day. He started off hot but only completed one of his final six passes, finishing with 68 yards in the air. Eastern Michigan did a good job of hanging right with Michigan's receivers, who couldn't get open. That's a bit scary if you're a Michigan fan. The Wolverines should have far superior athleticism and talent on the perimeter, but that just didn't seem to be the case.

However, the story for Michigan was that the Wolverine running backs were much faster and more athletic than Eastern Michigan's linebackers and safeties. Michigan finished the game with 39 carries for 380 yards, a 9.7 yard average. In other words, Michigan could have run the ball every play and practically never faced a second down. Brown finished with 187 yards while Denard Robinson had 60, Michael Shaw had 53, Mike Cox had 31, and Minor had 21. Michigan finished the weekend ranked #3 in rushing offense.

Defensively, Michigan still has plenty of work to do. Defensive end Brandon Graham and nose tackle Mike Martin can both command double teams, but Michigan's inside linebackers continue to be unable to fill the running lanes sufficiently. In fairness to the linebacking corps, starting WILL Jonas Mouton missed the game after being suspended for a punch he threw in the Notre Dame game. His backup, former walk-on Kevin Leach, led the team with 10 tackles, but neither he nor starting MIKE Obi Ezeh recorded a tackle for loss. Leach hustles and did a pretty good job of being in the right place, but he's simply not the athlete Mouton is. Eastern Michigan was consistently able to run the ball in the first half, running 28 times for 128 yards. Defensive coordinator Greg Robinson and his coaches were able to make some halftime adjustments and limit EMU to 51 yards on 20 attempts in the second half, but really, there's no excuse for the way the Eagles were able to run the ball in the first half, especially when you consider how little success they had in the passing game.

On the subject of defense, Michigan cornerback Boubacar Cissoko was the victim of one of the most egregious pass interference penalties you'll ever see. Former Michigan cornerback Johnny Sears, who now plays for EMU, was inserted into the game as a wide receiver in the first half. Eastern Michigan quarterback Andy Schmitt tossed a fade route to Sears against Cissoko, who was basically running the route for Sears and had position downfield. As Cissoko was sprinting downfield in front of Sears and reached for the ball, Sears climbed up his back and tackled the sophomore corner. Somehow the referee blamed the collision on Cissoko, who should have just as much of a right to the football as the receiver. It was atrocious and I'm sure the official will be getting a reprimand this week, whether it's public or private.

Offensive game ball goes to . . . Carlos Brown (1). Brown carried the ball 13 times for 187 yards (14.4 yard average) and 2 TDs. One was a 90-yarder in the second quarter. Brown's lack of tackle-breaking ability is still frustrating. For evidence, see his 30 yard run in the first quarter where he's taken down by the wave of Darth Vader's hand. But his speed is scary.

Defensive game ball goes to . . . Craig Roh (1). Roh made 7 tackles, including 1 tackle for loss, and had the first interception of his career on a pass tipped by Ezeh. He also combined for a sack with defensive end Will Heininger, giving Roh 1.5 career sacks.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Denard Robinson (2). I'm going to take flak for this because Robinson ran the ball well (3 carries, 60 yards, 2 TDs). But he can't throw the ball. He's not ready to be an FBS quarterback right now, and that probably won't change this year. He threw the ball four times and completed none to his teammates, but two were caught by Eastern Michigan defensive backs. One INT was an underthrown ball to Martavious Odoms, who was double-covered. The other was an underthrown and woefully inaccurate post route to Roy Roundtree. Robinson's quarterback rating is currently . . . wait, what? . . . seriously? . . . uhhh . . . -6.10. Yes, that's a negative sign.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . eh, I'm not going to pick anyone this week. The inside linebackers didn't play great, but the options there are limited. Leach was in there because Mouton punched someone and he led the team in tackles, so that's pretty good for a walk-on. Ezeh was just okay, but J.B. Fitzgerald and Kenny Demens aren't any better.

Michigan 38, Notre Dame 34

Tate Forcier is better than you. At throwing. At running. At breaking Darius Fleming's legs. At keeping cool under pressure. At punting. He's better than you at everything except, perhaps, brushing his teeth.

I predicted a 31-27 victory for Notre Dame. I was wrong and I'm glad. But I was fully prepared for a defeat before the game, and I was even pretty prepared when Notre Dame went ahead 34-31 with a few minutes left in the game, at least compared to most Michigan fans. But then Charlie Weis got all cocky and was like, "I'm going to totally surprise everyone and throw the ball deep." Except Donovan Warren is smarter than Weis (which sucks for Notre Dame) and broke up the pass.

Forcier was 23/33 for 240 yards, two TDs, and an interception to go along with 70 rushing yards and another TD on the ground. He was the author of several of the game's most electrifying plays, including the scrambling, game-winning TD pass to Greg Mathews. But the most exciting play for Michigan was when Forcier, on a pass play against a Cover Zero defense, rolled right, planted his right foot in front of Notre Dame linebacker Darius Fleming, and watched Fleming fall down before sprinting 31 yards past the defense for a touchdown. Denard Robinson might be the "Lightning" bolt of the two quarterbacks, but ABC analyst Matt Millen deemed Forcier a "stud bolt," which . . . hey, despite its homoeroticism, I'll take it.

Can we please, please, PUH-LEEZE see more Brandon Minor on offense? I've been saying this since before the 2008 season - Minor is the best running back on the team. Not Carlos Brown. Not Sam McGuffie when he was still here. The coaches may have started Brown because Brown had been healthy and started last week, but I believe Minor only had three or four carries in the first half. And on those three or four carries, he had 26 yards. Forcier was keeping the ball too much on the read option and Rodriguez was calling too many pass plays. Minor needs the ball. He had 16 carries total for 106 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and one TD. Brown showed good hands on two catches, but Minor has the ability to outrun people and break tackles, something Brown struggles with. Minor also seems to have a better handle on when to cut upfield on those zone stretch plays.

Offensive game ball goes to . . . Forcier (2) for the second week in a row. Mathews had the game-winning TD, Darryl Stonum had a 94-yard kickoff return TD, Minor had 106 yards and a TD. But Forcier played well throughout the game and went 6-for-7 on the game-winning drive, not to mention his long run for a TD.

Defensive game ball goes to . . . Steve Brown (2), who seems to have found a home at the SAM linebacker spot. He finished the game with 6 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble. And despite the fact that Notre Dame running back Armando Allen had 139 yards, Brown held up well at the point of attack and forced Allen to cut some outside runs up the field. Unfortunately, Michigan's inside linebackers - especially Obi Ezeh - had a poor tackling day.

Let's see less of this guy on offense . . . Carlos Brown (1). Brown has big-play potential and probably catches the ball better than Brandon Minor, but he's not as good of a runner. Brown had 4 carries for -3 yards. Put him in the slot or in two-back sets, but Minor should be in the backfield most of the time.

Let's see less of this guy on defense . . . Boubacar Cissoko (1). This one has many levels. First of all, Cissoko allowed two touchdowns on Saturday, both against Golden Tate. On the first, Tate ran a hitch near the goal-line and Cissoko just gave him too much of a cushion. On the second, Tate ran a hitch on the right sideline and Cissoko missed the tackle. Secondly, next week Michigan plays Eastern Michigan, so hopefully Cissoko can get some rest for his aching shoulder. Third, Cissoko had way too much TV time for a guy who was getting burned left and right. He crossed his arms in denial at one point, and after a Michael Floyd catch and tackle along the left sideline, Cissoko pushed Floyd back down to the ground as Floyd tried to get up. It was a classless play that deserved a 15-yard penalty.

As far as my predictions went for the game . . . they were so-so.

Clausen will throw for over 300 yards.
He threw for 339. Michigan couldn't muster a pass rush against Notre Dame's maximum protection schemes, and Michael Floyd is better than anyone we have at cornerback.

Golden Tate and Michael Floyd will each have a 40+ yard catch.
Neither did. Floyd had a 37-yarder and Tate's long was 27. Tate dropped at least one pass that would have gone for 40+ yards, so they were close.

Brandon Graham will record at least two sacks.
Again, the maximum protection pass blocking schemes worked pretty well for Notre Dame. They didn't trust their offensive line against the likes of Graham and Mike Martin, which was probably smart. Nobody from Michigan recorded a sack.

Either Brandon Minor or Carlos Brown will go over 100 yards rushing.
Minor ended with 106.

Tate Forcier will throw his first collegiate interception.
Safety Kyle McCarthy picked off Forcier in the fourth quarter when Greg Mathews ran a bad route.

Here's the helpful box score from Mgoblue.com.

Picture via TheWolverine.com.