Preview: Michigan vs. Washington

 

Washington (and former Michigan) WR Giles Jackson (image via SI)

RUSH OFFENSE vs. WASHINGTON RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #34 in rush offense (194.8 yards/game) and #44 in yards per carry (5.13). Kalel Mullings has emerged as the top running back (77 carries, 540 yards, 6 TD) with Donovan Edwards (59 carries, 258 yards, 2 TD) still playing a big role as a backup. QB Alex Orji is the third-leading rusher, but he has just 55 yards on 22 carries since taking over as the starter two weeks ago. LT Myles Hinton is likely to miss the game due to injury, and naturally, he's Michigan's best lineman, so fifth year senior Jeffrey Persi will likely get the start on the left side. According to PFF, Persi is the second best run blocker of the linemen, so perhaps the drop-off there will not be too significant. The rest of the line has been overwhelming, but it will be interesting to see if Michigan's platoon of Dominick Giudice and Greg Crippen continues at center. Defensively, Washington is #51 in rush defense (121.8 yards allowed/game) and #58 in yards allowed per carry (3.74). Last week they gave up 184 yards on 33 carries to Rutgers, including 25 attempts for 132 yards and 1 touchdown by Kyle Monongai. The leading tackler is senior MLB Carson Bruener (6'2", 226) with 30 tackles, followed by fifth year senior WLB Alphonzo Tuputala (6'2", 230) with 25. The Huskies start five transfers, including two on the defensive line; head coach Jedd Fisch brought with him from Arizona a redshirt sophomore DE/OLB Isaiah Ward (6'5", 227), who is quite clearly undersized. Senior DT Sebastian Valdez (6'4", 305) is in his first season at the FBS level after transferring from Montana State.
Advantage: Michigan

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PASS OFFENSE vs. WASHINGTON PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #130 in passing offense (115.4 yards/game), #130 in yards per attempt (5.3), and #121 in passing efficiency. Alex Orji (20/36, 133 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT) is expected to start his third game. TE Colston Loveland leads the team with 23 catches for 228 yards and 1 touchdown. Nobody else has more than 69 receiving yards, and that guy is #2 tight end Marlin Klein. Woof. Also, the offensive line is bad at pass blocking, particularly RT Evan Link, who has posted two 0.0 grades in pass blocking from PFF this year. Washington is #6 in pass defense (128 yards allowed/game) and #3 in defensive passing efficiency. It helps that they have played some poor passing offenses, but then again, that's exactly what Michigan is. Three of the five secondary members are transfers, including Portland State transfer Cameron Broussard, whom Michigan tried to land in the off-season, too. Tuputala and redshirt junior DE Zach Durfee (6'5", 256) both lead the team with 2.5 sacks, followed by senior DE Voi Tunuufi (6'1", 282) with 1.5 quarterback takedowns. Broussard is the weak spot in the secondary while senior CB Thaddeus Dixon (6'1", 186) is the only member of the secondary with an interception this year. Why am I even talking about this?
Advantage: Washington

RUSH DEFENSE vs. WASHINGTON RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is a respectable #6 in rushing defense (68.8 yards allowed/game) and #9 in yards allowed per carry (2.75). Both Texas and USC topped 100 yards rushing against the Wolverines on designed runs, but Michigan's sacks of USC quarterback Miller Moss dropped them down to 96. It has been a good unit, at least until they get tired late in games. LB Ernest Hausmann (28), LB Jaishawn Barham (24), and S Makari Paige (20) lead the team in tackles, but it's unclear if Paige will play this week after suffering an injury late in the Minnesota game. Defensive tackles Mason Graham, Rayshaun Benny, and Kenneth Grant have combined for 8 tackles for loss. Offensively, Washington starts nine transfer players; all are in their first year at Washington except former Michigan WR Giles Jackson, who has been there since 2022. They're #61 in yards per game (173.2) but #32 in yards per carry (5.35). Junior RB Jonah Coleman (5'9", 229) came from Arizona with Fisch and has jumped out to a great start with 72 carries for 521 yards (7.2 yards/carry) and 4 touchdowns. He has speed, agility, and strength and looks like a player who will play in the NFL. Redshirt sophomore RT Drew Azzopardi (6'7", 308) has been atrocious, while redshirt junior LT Maximus McCree (6'6", 295) has played fairly well while starting the past two games. Four starting linemen are transfers, with the only holdover being LG Gaard Memmelaar (6'4", 299). If Michigan can get off the field defensively and stay fresh, this is an advantage for Michigan. If the offense can't sustain drives, this matchup could get worse as the game wears on.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. WASHINGTON PASS OFFENSE
Star cornerback Will Johnson should return for Michigan this week after sitting out the Minnesota game following a hard hit he took against USC. That will be very important for a secondary that will be facing a very efficient passing game. It will also help to get DE Josaiah Stewart back. Those are two of Michigan's three best defenders - along with Graham - and they both missed last week's game, which I feel like made the difference between a comfortable two- or three-score win to a three-point victory. However, Michigan is #103 in pass defense (248.8 yards allowed/game). They're better on a per play basis (#24 in yards per attempt at 6.0, #55 in pass efficiency defense), but they have leaked yardage late in games when the pass rush gets tired. Washington is #24 in passing offense (296.2 yards/game), #18 in yards per attempt (9.1), and #10 in passing efficiency. Mississippi State transfer QB Will Rogers (6'2", 216) is completing 74.8% of his passes for 9.2 yards/attempt, 10 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. A few years ago, he threw for 4,739 yards and 36 touchdowns in Starkville, so he's an accomplished player. Redshirt sophomore WR Denzel Boston (6'4", 209) leads the way with 412 yards and 7 touchdowns, but Giles Jackson actually leads the team in catches (34) and has added 401 yards and 1 score. Fifth year senior WR Jeremiah Hunter (6'2", 212) has 16 catches for 201 yards and 1 score. The starting TE is senior Nevada/Cal transfer Kaleki Latu (6'7", 244) with 13 catches, but backup TE Decker DeGraaf (6'3", 240) is someone to watch with just 5 catches but for 125 yards and 2 touchdowns as a true freshman. Washington is #50 in sacks allowed per game (1.5) with RT Azzopardi the weak spot. I have a feeling that Michigan and the pass rush are going to wear out as the game goes along, and in what I expect to be a pretty close game, Washington will take over the advantage late in the game.
Advantage: Washington

ROSTER NOTES

• Washington players offered by Michigan include: RB Sam Adams II, S Cameron Broussard, OL Landen Hatchett, WR Giles Jackson, CB Dyson McCutcheon, LB Hayden Moore, RB Daniyel Ngata, CB Caleb Presley, DE Jayden Wayne
• Washington WR Giles Jackson played for Michigan in 2019-2020, totaling 24 catches for 309 yards and 1 touchdown; he also rushed 12 times for 74 yards and 1 touchdown; returned 37 kickoffs for 976 yards and 2 touchdowns; and returned 2 punts for 5 yards
• Washington LB Hayden Moore signed with Michigan in 2023 and redshirted, transferring to UW this past off-season
• Washington LB Carson Bruener is the son of former Washington and NFL TE Mark Bruener
• Washington DT Russell Davis II is the son of former North Carolina and NFL DT Russell Davis
• Washington HC Jedd Fisch coached quarterbacks and wide receivers at Michigan in 2015-2016
• Washington DC Steve Belichick is the son of former New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick
• Washington QB coach Jimmy Dougherty was an offensive analyst at Michigan in 2016
• Washington Director of Player Personnel Matt Doherty worked in Michigan's recruiting department in 2015

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .

• Michigan beat Washington by a score of 34-13 in the national championship game on January 8, 2024

PREDICTION

• Washington 23, Michigan 17