I guess it's Tuttle time. After a couple drives of Alex Orji's version of the offense doing nothing (0 points), Michigan surprisingly inserted seventh year Utah/Indiana transfer backup Jack Tuttle. The offense immediately got a boost as Washington tried to adjust. Michigan rather quickly put up 17 points across the second and third quarters before doing nothing in the fourth. Tuttle completed 10/18 passes for 98 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He also ran 5 times for 14 yards and lost a fumble. Orji completed 3/7 passes for 15 yards and ran 3 times for 11 yards before departing. The offense looked more cohesive and calmer with Tuttle behind center, at least until the end of the game, when Michigan was down a couple scores in hurry-up mode. I would imagine Tuttle's time on task has not been significant running a two-minute offense since he's been hurt for the past several months, but the game was out of hand at that point. Michigan was not going to get two scores in the span of a minute or so.
Hit the jump for more.
What does the Michigan offense look like going forward? As much as I like the idea of someone with Tuttle's experience, acumen, and skills running the offense, I think there's still a place for Orji. I actually didn't like that when Michigan benched Orji, they completely removed him from the offense. I would hope that if Tuttle is the starter moving forward, Michigan still finds a way to incorporate Orji. First, that makes teams prepare for different styles of offense. Second, it protects Tuttle in some ways, because Tuttle has been injury-prone throughout his career. Third, the idea of +1 runs is enticing to me if Michigan can figure out a way to run QB powers, QB sweeps, QB isos, etc. Unfortunately, the coaches have been focused on weird option plays without an option. The offense just can't be based on a running QB who's actually not that great of a runner and who can only throw to the flat.
Donovan Edwards got unlocked. I thought Donovan Edwards played his best game of the year, especially when Tuttle came in the game. Edwards ended up with 14 carries for 95 yards, including a 39-yard touchdown run. He also had some other decent runs where he was falling forward after contact and powering through defenders. Take away the 39-yarder, and he still ended up with 13 carries for 56 yards, which is a decent day. I think some of this was partly due to Washington just not being super physical, but I'll give credit where credit is due. He also had 2 catches for 23 yards, which is an aspect of the offense Tuttle opens up. Edwards previously had 7 catches for 23 yards, so he matched his season total in receiving yardage on just 2 catches.
Wink Martindale complaints? I think Michigan fans have been spoiled by the last few seasons, and now they're in complain-about-everything mode. I think Martindale is a step down from Minter, but there's also an element here of players not doing their jobs. Jyaire Hill tripped over a receiver's feet and allowed a touchdown. That's not on the defensive coordinator. Michigan's junior All-American cornerback committed a stupid pass interference penalty that lengthened a Washington fourth quarter drive and set up a chip shot field goal to ice the game. In the first quarter, fifth year senior safety Makari Paige let former Michigan receiver Giles Jackson run right past him for a 39-yard catch. Nickel corner Zeke Berry got lost on a wheel route and couldn't defend a back shoulder throw. I don't know who's to blame. Is it the defensive backs themselves? Is it defensive backs coach Lamar Morgan? Is it Martindale? I honestly don't see that many schematic issues. Guys are in position to make plays, but they're not making them. The question then, of course, becomes whether the scheme is matching the talents of the players on the field, but if a fifth year senior safety can't defend a seam route . . . I don't know what a defensive coordinator is going to do about that. Can Will Johnson not be trusted to play off man coverage?
I suspect wool is not sharpening iron. This is probably a more damning issue in some ways, but we always hear "iron sharpens iron." Well, I suspect the problem in the defensive backfield is that Michigan does not have good receivers to challenge them in practice. If "best on best" in practice is Peyton O'Leary going against Will Johnson, he's not getting the same look as he is in games when going against the leading touchdown scorer among Power 4 receivers. Kendrick Bell - a redshirt freshman switching positions from cornerback - does not challenge Jyaire Hill. Michigan's receivers aren't good on offense, and in turn, I think it's having a negative impact on the defense because that's who they see in practice. If my standard in practice is defending NFL draft-eligible prospects Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson, I'm going to be ready to face most receivers the Big Ten has to throw at me. If I'm practicing against O'Leary and Bell and 6'3", 182 lb. Amorion Walker, it's just not the same.
The season trajectory is dropping. Before the season, I predicted a 9-3 year with losses to USC, Oregon, and Ohio State. Obviously, Michigan scooted past USC with a win and then lost to Washington, so 9-3 is still a possibility if Oregon and Ohio State are still chalked up as losses. But with looming games against an improved Michigan State, an improved Indiana, etc., there are very few guaranteed victories.
Man, I agree on Edwards ... his TD run was a wide open lane, but that lit a fire in him we haven't seen this year. Dragged a pair of defenders later and had the M fans going nuts
ReplyDeleteI know the pass-run split seems fine, but Tuttle isn't very good, hasn't practiced with the 1s, came in cold, and was throwing on 1st & 2nd Downs ...
Mullings started the game at 4.3ypc and was primed to wear down a not-great Defense while their offense sat & watched
Then the Don got HOT ... but they let him get cold. He was open at least three times for potential HR passes. And where TF is our screen game?!?
Why pass so much in that INSANE environment? I'm not saying go "32 PennSt," but passes in that situation should be limited, and the RB has to be a primary read occasionally (see Edwards). The TD to Loveland was probably our best pass of the season, but Klein was open early ... so was Loveland earlier. Tuttle just isn't very good ... RUN THE BALL, KILL THE CLOCK
"The offense looked more cohesive and calmer with Tuttle behind center,"
ReplyDeleteMichigan had the ball off an INT, momentum and possession in a tie game, and 10 minutes to go... Tuttle proceeded to turn the ball over twice in a row, Washington scored twice in a row. Result -- a 10 point loss. If this is what calm and cohesive look like, please give me stressful and chaotic LOL.
What I liked about Tuttle was his command of the huddle and his composure. He was making audibles at the huddle, reading plays, and making decisions that made sense. That's a positive change relative to Warren and Orji feeling like they were learning how to QB on the fly.
However, Tuttle just lacks talent necessary to play at this level. Career numbers: 7 TD / 7 INT / Passer rating of 108. The first 3 drives had an element of surprise and resulted in 17 points. The next 4 drives? two 3-and-outs and 2 turnovers, just 28 yards. Worst than Orji's first 3 drives of the game.
(Not so) Hot take -- all 3 of these QBs are bad. Cycling through them isn't going to fix much of anything. Feels like Moore is just grasping at straws.
Bottomline - they are not going to win games when their QB is turning it over multiple times a game. This team is not good enough to overcome that.
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Old adage - you can have a bad QB, you can have a bad OL, but you can't have both. This Michigan offense has both.
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For all the attention given to the subpar QB play -- this is an issue of talent and can be resolved in the offseason. It's nothing necessarily indicative of a long term problem. Hit the portal, develop your recruits, viola.
More concerning to me with regard to the hopes of the Sherrone Moore era is what is going on with the offensive line. Moore has been coaching these guys all through their careers. For the OL to be this mediocre, with 6 seniors, plus Gentry, Priebe and HInton is inexplicable and embarrassing. What is the identity of this team if the OL is getting blown back by mediocre DLs and missing basic assignments consistently. If iron was sharpening iron the OL should be having a field day with these opponents relative to who they see in practice. That's not happening.
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I agree with Thunder that Martindale is being unfairly criticized, BUT -- the vast majority of big plays Washington got came on blitzes. I'm not going to get on the side of people saying don't blitz ever (or whatever), but it does seem like Wink's feel for WHEN to blitz is not too intuitive. Perhaps it's an acclimation to college thing.
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Season trajectory. I thought we'd be 4-2 at this point, so theoretically we're on track, but there's way too much chaos and instability on the offense and the defense has disappointed in the second halves of games 3 weeks in a row. My expectation was an 8-4 team but at this point that seems optimistic. 7-5 feels more likely. 6-6 would be rather disappointing, and Moore will be coaching for his job in 2025 if he finishes the season watching a 500 team.
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The silver lining is that every game is a legitimate competition. There's something to be said for that.
Hopefully they make good use of the bye and figure some stuff out. This coaching staff has not earned much trust, but they do deserve our hopeful support.
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Husky Stadium is a special spot and I encourage anyone who hasn't been there to make the trip. Just a stunning setting for college football. I had a lot of conversations with Husky fans and most were good natured fun. They'd trade this win in October for the one in January anytime. No question about that.
I have heard many, many people speak of Husky Stadium as a special place to watch bowl games. Thanks for the on-site report!
DeleteTrivia -- I knew Mike Lude, who was the athletic director for Washington from 1976 to 1991. Mike died earlier this year at the age of 101. He had a million stories about football, and being the AD at both Washington and Auburn.
"For the OL to be this mediocre, with 6 seniors, plus Gentry, Priebe and HInton is inexplicable and embarrassing."
DeleteDo you think Grant Newsome -- by all accounts a fine young man -- might be at issue here? Perhaps he's found himself center stage too quickly?
"(Not so) Hot take -- all 3 of these QBs are bad"
DeleteMan, if only some of us pointed this out earlier in the year ... like, back in April, before & after the Spring Game ... or maybe last year when discussing QB recruiting
I think Morgan (DBs) is in line for criticism. Not only do we get abused in the pass game, we did Saturday in a game with plenty of pressure & 3sacks. The tackling is really bad, and guys - even Will - are often out of position
@ Anonymous 6:43 a.m.
DeleteI don't think there's any doubt at this point that Newsome is an issue here. And I'm not even mad at him for it. He's a rookie when it comes to OL coaching. You can bring in rookies to coach tight ends or running backs, because TE/RB are the easiest positions to play on offense. Running back is a lot about inherent skill, and TE just isn't complicated - as long as you know the play, you should be fine.
Offensive line is a whole different ball of wax. There are lots of different calls, lots of technique, lots of combos, lots of quick reactions based on what the defense is doing, etc. I've coached QBs and OL before, and they're the most fun . . . and the most challenging positions on offense. They're very rewarding on the field when you see things click, when you see an OL pick up a tough blitz, when you see the QB find his hot read, etc. But when they play like crap, everybody knows it and it crushes the team.
Entrusting the OL to a rookie at the position who's also rather inexperienced as a coach is a big step. I know Moore took over the OL, too, after being a TE coach, but he was a more experienced coach at the time.
@Anon
DeleteIt could be a Newsome problem I suppose. He has never coached at this level - but that's across the board on the offensive staff. The thing I go back to on the OL is that that's Sherrone's expertise. He is still here and he is obviously available to oversee and guide Newsome. This is the one thing on offense that absolutely should NOT be a problem. So I suspect, if anything, it's on Sherrone being overwhelmed with new responsibilities than on Newsome.
If Newsome is struggling, Sherrone isn't doing his job.
I don't think you realize how limited Orji appears to be as a QB. There are soooooooo many things that concern me about his ability to run an offense. From the way he takes the play call (both hands covering his ears, separated from the huddle) to his shotgun posture behind center (chest/eyes down) to his lack of footwork to his lack of creativity with the ball in his hands to his not being trusted to throw the ball downfield. It's not a major college offense with him at QB.
DeleteIn last week's thread, you gave credit to Orji for opening up running lanes for Mullings to get big plays. And yes, that can work at times. What you don't acknowledge is that a passer can also open up running lanes by making defenses back off. One reason Donovan Edwards likely had a better game this week was because he's not as good in tight spaces, so when he finally had some room to run, he took advantage of it. If you're running into nine-man boxes, Edwards doesn't have the vision, patience, or tackle-breaking ability to do much with that.
This is why I hate the "well, running quarterbacks can open up running lanes!" argument, because it's something passing quarterbacks do as well. Tom Brady opened up running lanes. So does Lamar Jackson. I've said it before, but if people can only apply logic one way, then it's not logic...it's just feelings.
Yes, Tuttle committed turnovers at an inopportune time. So did Will Rogers (well, the one INT). I agree that there's little room for error. But Michigan had three drives at the beginning to do something, and they didn't do anything with Orji in there. They ran 16 plays for 47 yards with Orji in the game.
If Michigan went down and scored after that Rogers INT and won the game, Washington fans would be saying "Argh! We can't be throwing INTs! That play doomed us!"
@Thunder 1o13, while watching warmups, Orji looked fine. His left shoulder was towards. We could see his throwing hand over his helmet; his release was good. But once the game started, in addition to the points you made above (all stuff discussed after the Spring Game), his release was at earhole level, almost like he was aiming a dart ... the gimmick didn't work out, and was foreseeable
DeleteI suppose there are some people who, in live game action, just can't get the coaching lessons they've been told and shown. I feel for Orji ... he seems like a decent guy, and it seems like he really wants to do well. It's just when the game speeds up to real-time, the old habits are still there.
DeleteAnon, Orji is probably an awesome guy. The team seems to really like him, and it was great seeing him be the first to cheer on Warren while he was in. But, like with Warren, his story is not the point. Neither are even average QBs; they're both very bad. I was hoping Orji could at least run, but even then he's not very good and not a decision maker in Reads
DeleteI get folks are down on the OL - I am too - but good or even decent QB play makes up for that. Our OL was better than UW. Their FCS/G5 ragtag assembly got worked by our starting DL, but their offense still managed to get yards & enough points. They have an okay QB, which helps the entire offense produce
"I don't think you realize how limited Orji appears to be as a QB"
DeleteI don't know if this is targeted at me but I agree that Orji is very limited as a QB.
"What you don't acknowledge is that a passer can also open up running lanes by making defenses back off."
Nah. This is acknowledged. What you don't acknowledge is that it only happens if the passer is good enough to make the threat meaningful. Warren did not. He did not threaten anyone downfield. They hardly even threw downfield with him, just like Orji.
Is Tuttle presenting that threat? Well I guess we are going to see but I would speculate that no, he will not present enough of a pass threat to open up running lanes for the RBs.
" it's something passing quarterbacks do as well"
It's something passing QBs CAN do as well. If they are good. When they are not -- the safeties and linebackers are going to trigger on the running backs, and they can do it without worrying about the QB running in the opposite direction.
So that's the fundamental probelm with your argument Thunder. Nobody is saying a passing QB can't open up run lanes for RBs. People, well at least me, are saying these other QBs are not doing the one thing Orji brought to the table -- getting safeties and LBs to worry about something other than the RBs.
In short -- if you have a 3 QBs who can't throw, you might as well use the one who can run.
So that rules out Warren, and it's Orji vs Tuttle. Here's the thing about Tuttle - he can run too. He's a decent athlete. And Orji, for all his supposed elite athleticism -- hasn't shined as a runner either. He looks like Tebow, not Denard, but that distinction is moot in an offense that isn't design for EITHER to be a run threat.
Tuttle is obvious choice right now to start against Illinois. BUT here is the thing...Tuttle sucks. By Michigan standards. By Indiana standards. Tuttle might be an average QB in the MAC if things break right, but this is a Michigan team that needs better than a MAC QB to try and repeat a season like 2021 (when they started a different MAC caliber QB).
That's not in the cards and I think Michigan is just left with trying to get through the season minimizing the damage that a fall off from the national championship to the middle of the big ten does to the program in the long-term. We're a bad loss away from turning our eyes to 2025, frankly. And for all the discussion about QB and RB, neither position is using anyone who will still be relevant to 2025 IMO.
I have no quarrel with your point, and I wasn't suggesting that Orji's lack of abilities -- or Warren's for that matter -- should be papered over in favor of the human interest story back of the person. I'm just reflecting on the personal side, and trying to empathize with both as their hopes for playing are dashed.
DeleteThere's no question Michigan has a QB problem, and it goes back to last year. Someone -- Harbaugh, Moore, Campbell -- should have planned for the loss of J.J., because his chances of staying were never more than about 10%, regardless of a championship or not. They knew what they had all through the 2023 season, and they knew the drop-off from J.J. was stark. I read somewhere that in the Maryland game, J.J. could barely walk, and yet he played. Why? Because they had to risk it ... 2023 was an "all in" year for Harbaugh and McCarthy. I'll add parenthetically that the chances of Harbaugh staying was 0% regardless, championship or not.
After J.J. there was Tuttle, Warren, Orji, and Denegal. I'm assuming Jaydn Davis's desire to redshirt in 2024 was well-known. I am fairly convinced the plan was to ride Tuttle in 2024, despite all the spring and summer chatter about Orji. Tuttle took longer to heal than they anticipated, and they went with Warren, who was an approximation of Tuttle. I suspect they hoped more than expected that Orji would be serviceable. Denegal was never part of the discussion.
All that is to say that not grabbing a "at least as good as Tuttle" QB in the portal -- even before Harbaugh's and McCarthy's decisions -- was a lack of good planning. Water under the bridge now, but if we are casting backwards judgments, then it was a failure on someone's part to not get such a QB in the portal.
@Thunder
DeleteThe Edwards TD run was opened by the QB run threat.
Not a pass threat.
Watch the replay - corners are one on one with the 2 outside WR. 8 guys in the box once Bredeson motions in. Deep safety runs downhill at the snap, not remotely worried about getting beat deep. With Tuttle at QB, Washington is still not worried about the pass on this play.
Without Tuttle executing the zone read run, if this is just a handoff from under center, Don is dead meat. But Tuttle run threat gets the second level stepping to the field side. Tuttle threatens left, Don cuts right, and the deep safety headed to Tuttle's side, along with others, leave the back end wide open for Don to run straight to the end zone.
The step in the wrong direction is all Don needs. The step in the wrong direction is not there without the QB run threat.
Those wrong direction steps COULD be there with a QB pass threat too. Nobody here says Tom Brady is trash LOL. But Warren and Tuttle aren't scaring safeties with their arms. That's the issue.
Warren: Minimal threat as a passer, No threat as runner.
Orji: No threat as a passer, moderate threat as a runner.
Tuttle: minimal threat as a passer, minimal threat as a runner.
Both elements matter. Ignoring what the run threat does for a QB is antiquated thinking, and most of the big plays our RBs have made this season demonstrate that.
yet another example of internet guy who never played & has no idea what he's looking at
DeleteOn the Edwards TD, Safety13 did crash down, but straight towards Edwards. On the scrape, he didn't pause or flinch toward any QB keep
CB21 followed Bredeson's motion. The LB just eats a Klein block
CBs25&9 (lined up 7yds off the LoS) stayed with their Receiver. Safety24 (lined up 13yds beyond the LoS) comes down, but toward the boundary side hash, while Tuttle would have been headed field side
So there's no "freaking out," overreaction or even play toward the QB. Man coverage pulled two Corners out of the play until it was too late ... Washington is lined up to defend the pass, but prepared to attack Edwards, not Tuttle
My guess is someone read a hottake & repeated it ... or he assumes no one will look, and is lying again
https://youtu.be/ImtcOTRXni8?si=DijzCNFP7HWFAxSO
Al-Bundy level analysis there jelllly93.
DeleteYou've got 2 guys running routes drawing 2 defenders, 7 guys blocking 7 guys effectively. That leaves 2 safeties who are unblocked (#13 and #24). Why don't those 2 unblocked player tackle Don?
I'll give you a hint Jelly -- it's not because of the threat of the pass that Tuttle presents.
"My guess is someone read a hottake & repeated it"
Always stay projecting jellly.
"So there's no "freaking out," overreaction or even play toward the QB"
Oh a fake quote! ding ding ding. Someone is freaking around all right.
You failed to dispute a single thing I said jellly. All you did was illustrate that you don't know a thing about football, yet again.
There are 7 in the box and the deep safety is coming down not worried about the pass. This is still true and covered above. He's also aligned below the hash on the boundary - which is where the snap takes place. Because...he's the deep safety.
That safety doesn't get to the hash until it's way too late. Don is already 3 yards away from him with the jets turned on. Watch the angle he takes -- he's headed for a race to the pile on. The second Don cuts he knows he's toast. On the wrong side.
Conveniently ignored in the jeLOL breakdown is that Safety 13 is left unblocked on the strongside. He could have been freaking out about a pass theoretically, but then he's still a problem to Don, potentially. Here in real life he's there at the LOS, worried about the QB run. This doesn't happen with Warren at QB. It's part of why the play works.
CB1 does follow Bredeson, but he's not filling a gap, he's trying to track Bredeson and so he steps to the playside (where Tuttle is pointed to run if he keeps). Playside here means wrongside after Don's cut. Ditto to the deep safety who has to defend the keep as well as the handoff (that's his job) discussed above.
This is simple early 2000's football but some people still think the game hasn't involved since the early 90s and running a QB is a gimmick and Al Bundy led Polk High to that victory.
jelly gon jelly.
@jeLLLLy
DeleteWhy did safety 13 scrape over? Hmmmmm. Must be because he's worried about Tuttle throwing deep over his head.
What happens if 13 is dropping into coverage instead? Hmmmmmm. I guess Tuttle would hand off to Don anyway.
LOL
They are playing one on one man coverage outside, with no safety help over the top, because they're not worried about the pass threat of Tuttle. They have 8 guys in the box at the snap. They show cover 1 but the deep safety is coming in to stop the run. He is defending both sides of the field. Washington is not worried about the pass at all.
DeleteAt the mesh point there are 4 defenders above the hash - and a guy to block each one. The other 7 are below the hash. Why is that? Hmmm
The deef safety has already moved up 3 yards (because he's not worried about the pass threat of Tuttle) at the mesh point. 3 more and suddenly he's at 7 yards before he figures out which way Don has gone -- and by then it's too late. He's on the wrong side -- because he didn't know which way the play was going or who was going to get the ball.
The QB run threat is why the 2 safeties weren't just tracking down Don Edwards from the jump. The QB run threat opens up the field for the RB run threat.
A pass threat could do this too. But NONE of Michigan's QBs are enough of a pass threat to do it.
13 is read by the QB. If he goes at RB, QB keeps. If he stays home, QB gives.
Delete13 does NOT crash down on the RB, he forms up to hold the edge on the scrape. Trying to play both sides, but failing.
Look at Tuttle's head. Who is he reading?
Welcome to the 21st century.
Learn the game. But first hold up that L.
QB can keep it, depending on what D does.
DeleteWatch 2nd and 4 with 11:30 to go in the 3rd. No scrape this time LBs are back. Tuttle keeps as LBs step towards Don. Tuttle gains 5 for a 1st. Had the LB come down to the edge it would have been a give.
Denard can turn this into a 20+ yard run but with Tuttle we "settle" for a first down here. You don't have to be a great runner to make this stuff effective. If it's effective the defense has to pay attention. Just like the pass game, if you have the talent to execute it.
RBs benefit when QBs are a run threat. Not complicated. Not a gimmick.
You started with "But Tuttle run threat gets the second level stepping to the field side. Tuttle threatens left, Don cuts right, and the deep safety headed to Tuttle's side, along with others, leave the back end wide open for Don to run straight to the end zone"
DeleteYou've been proven wrong, with video!
Now you're guessing ... what's one of the main complaints from your boys at MGoBlog? NO READS!
You're assuming that they brought Tuttle in after 1o months off, and turned to live reads in the middle of the 2Q, after not having them for JJ or non-throwing Orji ... you're reeeaching again Lank
13 came in for Don, from the field side. NO FOOTBALL MOVE IN TUTTLE'S DIRECTION
You're wrong. It's on video
#n0tbUiLtf0rtHiS
"13 is chasing after Don"
DeleteFALSE. 13 isn't blocked by anyone. He's not going to the same place Don is. He runs himself out of the play. Why is that? What he is he running too?
hmmmmmmmmm
They're both flying towards Don ... 13 from the field side ... who said he was blocked? Not helping your rep as a liar
DeleteAgain, not a purple jersey toward where Tuttle is, or would be on a keep. But I do appreciate your backpedal ... you guessed it was a read, got called out ... now you have your third story in a single day
YOU ARE WRONG, AGAIN
#n0tbUiLtf0rtHiS
The deep Safety never takes a single step toward where Tuttle would go. He starts 13yds back (on 2nd & 3), and plays run as soon as he sees the run action ... he goes TOWARD the boundary side that Edwards is on
DeleteThe blitzing Safety never got a hand on Don, who sprinted through a gigantic hole created by Crippen & ElHadi. Who said anything about broken tackle? You do nothing to help your rep as a liar!
The deep safety is playing the run as noted repeatedly above. He is NOT worried about the pass.
DeleteLet's go back to the statement made that was argued with:
"The Edwards TD run was opened by the QB run threat. Not a pass threat."
jeLLLy agrees there is no pass threat. It just took a long while for the head harded to get the point. This is a run play with no pass threat to the safeties.
So great - the non-existent pass threat just neutralizes 2 guys on each side running with each other down the field and we are playing 9 on 9. Jelly is sitting here arguing the QB is not a threat on the run because there is no read, so it should be 9 on 7 blockers (plus the ball carrier and the QB).
The other safety is not blitzing the QB nor is he chasing the RB. He is not blitzing because there is no pass play. He is not chasing the RB He is formed up, on his heels, reading the play, defending the edge, in NO POSITION to tackle the RB whatsoever.
2 free hitters -- and no explanation why they don't get anywhere close to tackling the guy they are supposedly singlemindedly focused on tackling.
Play before that (Don run for 11 on 2nd and 3) has the husky edge standing around unblocked watching for the QB run too.
QB run threat helps RB run threat.
Welcome to the 21st century.
That's a lot of words, and still no acknowledgement that you were wrong in your post that started all this "But Tuttle run threat gets the second level stepping to the field side. Tuttle threatens left, Don cuts right, and the deep safety headed to Tuttle's side, along with others, leave the back end wide open for Don to run straight to the end zone"
DeleteThe defense did crash on the run, but toward Don. In one day I've had you hop back & forth on lies, assumptions, and misrepresenting social media posts
All because you started off wrong and couldn't accept it
#rentfree
Why?
DeleteI answered in my original breakdown: The blitzing S came from field side, but Don raced through the giant hole. There's no catching him from behind
The High Safety started below the hash, recognized run, and raced to stop it. Bad angle
One would think watching Zeke Berry Saturday night would help you realize how uncommon blown plays are
No need to dodge Lank. I proved your initial claim wrong right away. You've been making up more stories since
#n0tBuiLtf0rThiS
The only thing I was wrong about was thinking you saw a hotttake on social media and repeated it
DeleteTurns out, you either misrepresented a film cut up or are too football ignorant to realize that nothing in Due's video supports your original claim, or confirms your later ones
You lost again Lank!
#caseclosed
Lank, you can write a million comments and look at specific plays but the overall effect is that it's 100% clear that the offense opened up and was far more balanced to Wash with Tuttle in vs Orji. The difference was dramatic. Now some of that may be that Washington over adjusted to the pass threat of Tuttle. But they had to at least respect the pass option. That's the whole point. I think Orji could evolve into a semi-decent QB eventually, but he's not that now and more importantly, the coaches are not designing an offense to match his strengths. And if they are not going to do that, you have to go back to Tuttle (and IMO if necessary, Warren because those two simple suit this offensive design better). It's not like Orji never turned the ball over either. So you have to put the guy in that at least makes the offense somewhat multi-dimensional. Watching a pocket passer offense with Orji in is just to painful and ineffective.
Delete@ Blue in NC 11:51 a.m.
DeleteAgreed. Turnover avoidance is not the end-all-be-all of quarterback play. If it was, you would just put Mike Hart back in shotgun and let him run the ball all day long, because he never (well, rarely ever) fumbled! There's a certain amount of risk that's inherent when it comes to QB play. Obviously, there's an upper acceptable limit and it seems like Warren hit that (3 INTs on 14 attempts is very bad), but 1 INT and 1 fumble against the #1 pass defense in the country is not that.
Also, I just heard on a podcast today that it was the first time all year where Michigan scored on 3 straight possessions. Warren and Orji had about 2.5 games each to accomplish that, and it happened as soon as Tuttle entered the game.
He's not perfect. He might not even be good. But he looked better than either of those other guys.
@Blue in NC
Delete"100% clear that the offense opened up and was far more balanced to Wash with Tuttle in vs Orji. "
I agree and have not said otherwise. Tuttle led the offense well on the first 3 drives after the surprise change. Orji is more one dimenstional.
"Now some of that may be that Washington over adjusted to the pass threat of Tuttle. But they had to at least respect the pass option. That's the whole point"
I don't think it's that simple. I agree that Tuttle presents more of a pass threat than Orji but I did not see a big change in the defense playing back. Did you? Offense was still reliant on the run in either case and the Washington D still focused on stopping the run, wisely.
The issue here, again, is acting like we are putting an NFL passing QB out there when in reality we are putting a MAC passing QB out there.
Tuttle finished 10/18 for 98 yards against Washington. Orji finished 10/18 for 86 yards against Minnesota. It's not the night/day difference.
First 3 drives (by Orji) were better than the last 5 drives (by Tuttle) in the Washington game. But I'd still put Tuttle in to start against Illinois. That's in large part because Tuttle presents a run threat that Warren does not. And, as you say, if they aren't going to emphasize the QB run, then Tuttle is not a night/day different from Orji on the ground either. So you end up with a guy who can run 80% as good as Orji and pass 50% better than Warren. That's got to be your starter....if he can hold onto the ball.
So go ahead and start Tuttle. He's got an experience advantage over Orji and he presents more of a pass threat. IF he can avoid turnovers, the offense should be incrementally better with Tuttle. That's a big IF. And the increment is not that large, IMO.
"And if they are not going to do that, you have to go back to Tuttle (and IMO if necessary, Warren because those two simple suit this offensive design better). It's not like Orji never turned the ball over either"
I think Tuttle should start. I don't expect it to change things all that much relative to Orji because I don't think Tuttle is much better than Orji.
Warren is running third because he does nothing well -- he doesn't present a run threat, he doesn't hold onto the ball, and he's not much of pass threat either. More than Orji? Sure. More than John O'Korn? No, he's worse than John O'Korn.
@Thunder
Delete"put Mike Hart back in shotgun and let him run the ball all day long, because he never (well, rarely ever) fumbled"
I am not 100% sure this wouldn't be an upgrade to the current situation. Can he throw screens and dump offs occasionally?
#EdwardsforQB
" but 1 INT and 1 fumble against the #1 pass defense in the country is not that."
No it's not disqualifying but it's highly concerning because Tuttle has played college football before and been very bad. After the first 3 drives, the ineptitude was pretty comprehensive and NOT better than Orji's ineptitude earlier in the game.
"it was the first time all year where Michigan scored on 3 straight possessions. "
It was pretty fun to watch the first time a new QB surprised the defense and was handed the reigns. BUT... Once Washington settled in to the new QB, the performance was horrendous on the next 5 possessions.
Michigan had TDs on 2 of the first 5 drives against USC with Orji, and 3 of the first 5 drives against Minnesota. The second halves were not so pretty.
Seems like a trend that both QBs can start out strong and then get shut down.
Turnover avoidance isn't everything, but it's far from nothing.
@1993jeLLLy
Delete"nothing in Due's video supports your original claim"
It supports that the Tuttle plays were reads, which you're arguing against. Reads means the QB can run -- which is something the defense would need to account for. And they do! As the video shows.
Anyway -- You brought it up! Now that you don't want to talk about it anymore since you lose on that point as well, I'll agree that it really is beside the point if the read is live or not live. The point is the defense is worried about the QB running, and they pay attention to it. As the video shows.
"I answered in my original breakdown: The blitzing S came from field side"
So the guy coming after Don wasn't coming after Don at all. You're arguing with yourself. Why was he going to the field side jelly? Was he just paying attention to a RB who wasn't there? Was it to deal with the QB on a scrape? Or did the defense not account for that run option? Stop dodging!
"The High Safety started below the hash, recognized run, and raced to stop it. Bad angle"
Why does he take a bad angle? Because he's the deep safety, screaming downhill to stop the run, because he doesn't care about the pass. Deep safety is indecisive about what to do when he arrives upfield by the mesh point. At that moment he is there to watch the mesh point to defend the RB and QB run threat. He's not just coming after Don, or he wouldn't have stopped there. There's a reason he took a bad angle isn't there?
Deep safety is headed to the mesh point because he has to defend both sides. Other safety is headed to the field side for reasons you won't acknowledge and the deep safety is below the hash at the mesh, not where Don is going, for reasons you won't acknowledge. He comes downhill and continues coming downhill even when Don is busy cutting to the right. Because he's trying to defend both sides in the middle of the field.
Your lies are boring jelly.
@ Lank 4:18 p.m.
DeleteWhen other teams saw Orji enter the game, Orji wasn't able to bring out the same spark in the offense.
By my calculations, Michigan averaged 5.2 yards/play with Tuttle in the game. By comparison vs. previous games:
Arkansas State: 7.0 yards/play
USC: 5.6 yards/play
Tuttle O vs. Washington: 5.2 yards/play
Texas: 5.1 yards/play
Fresno State: 4.4 yards/play
Minnesota: 4.0 yards/play
Orji O vs. Washington: 2.9 yards/play
Overall, that's the best the offense has played (according to those stats above) other than against cupcake Arkansas State - which should be obvious - and USC.
Rushing yards v Washington:
Delete1Q, 18yds
2Q, 1o4yds
3Q, 29yds
4Q, 23yds
HC Moore points to the Washington defense looking for the deep pass when Tuttle came in (we didn't throw deep). After, they adjusted and we got what we got. Going deep to Walker should be our new gadget, thrown just enough to keep those Safeties back
*and we all know SC is heavily skewed by Mullings in his Superman cape
Quotes:
DeleteTOUCH THE BANNER:
(on Tuttle) "The offense immediately got a boost as Washington tried to adjust"
and
"The offense looked more cohesive and calmer with Tuttle behind center, at least until the end of the game"
MGO:
"Tuttle's entrance changed the feel of Michigan's passing game from something done with extreme caution and only when necessary to occasionally functional"
and
"Washington had to defend Michigan more honestly, which could have opened up the run game if anyone had brought their… uh… field turf cleats"
*like Due, Brian credits the Edwards BOOM to the giant hole that I pointed out, while none of us mention purple jerseys moving toward Tuttle. First story, debunked! Subsequent stories, unconfirmed!
Lank begged for an X's & O's guy, but ignored three. Hoping for some outlying opinion to agree failed, so he mislead on a Twitter post. Cognitive dissonance is real
*speaking with Jansen, Moore specifically comments on the Washington "Safety playing farther back," their D moving to "light boxes" because they "knew the ball could go deep" once Tuttle went in, and the "spark" created for our offense ... he made these observe AFTER watching film. The points about the Safety & light box are things I wrote about in my first reply yesterday ... the HC takeaway sounds a lot like the TTB OP
(question comes at 1o:17)
[MGoBlue Podcasts with Jon Jansen] Radio Replay - Inside Michigan Football (Oct. 7) #mgobluePodcastsWithJonJansen
https://podcastaddict.com/mgoblue-podcasts-with-jon-jansen/episode/183832761 via @PodcastAddict
when someone lies, changes stories and misrepresents others' thoughts, we cannot have a debate based on good faith
This MF case is closed!
Lank, you keep saying that Warren presents no run threat. I must be missing something because I thought Warren was fairly mobile, approximately the same as Tuttle (maybe just a tad slower but also likely more durable). He has escaped the pocket many times and scrambled for first downs. Yes, we are not going to design QB runs around Warren but Warren is certainly more mobile than Cade was and I don't see his mobility as a real limiting factor.
Delete@BlueNC
DeleteTuttle has been used as a runner regularly since he got to Michigan. That was a surprise to a lot of folks but we saw it again Saturday.
Warren has not been. Maybe theoretically he could be used more but that's like saying maybe theoretically Orji can be used more. Whatever their reasons they aren't using them that way. Here is how they ARE being used:
Orji: 165 snaps, 35 official carries and 3 sacks
Warren: 154 snaps, 8 official carries, 4 sacks
Tuttle: 46 snaps, 5 official carries, 1 sac
Warren runs less often and is sacked more often than either Tuttle or Orji.
If the coaches are afraid to use him as a runner, then it's a limiting factor.
It might be worth someone looking at the RB's YPC under Warren, Orji, and Tuttle. Probably not conclusive of anything due to sample size and variance of opponents, but might be an interesting indicator of the indirect impact of the QB nonetheless.
@Thunder
Delete"When other teams saw Orji enter the game, Orji wasn't able to bring out the same spark in the offense."
Orji was announced as a starter in advance of his first series. USC had time to prepare for him.
By your YPP numbers, Orji was more effective against USC than Tuttle was against Washington.
USC: 5.6 yards/play
Tuttle O vs. Washington: 5.2 yards/play
----------------------------------------
Tuttle was very effective those first 3 drives against UW. No dispute! It felt good! He looked very capable and competent of being a real dual-threat QB and managing the offense (audibles? what's that!?). But the last 5 drives were total disaster and lost us the game. Pinning hopes on the QB who sucked the last 5 drives being dramatically better than the QB who didn't do anything good in the first 3 drives is pretty dubious to me, even with the 3 good ones factored.
I am not arguing that Orji is awesome here - I have never done that and he clearly is not. But Warren was clearly worse! Tuttle is TBD, a mixed bag, at best. I am absolutely holding the last 6 years against him and the last 5 drives against him, not willing to ignore all that based on the 3 good drives - especially when the one TD pass started with him missing a wide open receiver.
Tuttle earned the start. Orji should get series mixed in*. I don't know that the offense is going to be substantially more effective with one or the other.
My guess is that Warren will see the field again also at some point this year. All 3 options are bad.
*For multiple reasons including limiting turnovers and the fact that Tuttle is not going to make it through the end of the season given his injury history.
I think folks are forgetting how encouraging the first half of the USC game was. Orji's first start and Q1 and Q2 were very good offensively, by 2024 standards. Tuttle's showing in Q2 and Q3 against Washington were similar.
DeleteWe got about a half of good offensive football with new QBs and then the wheels fell off offensively after that, in both games, with both QBs.
@jelly
DeleteWas there a light box on the Edwards TD?
Why was the unblocked safety on his heels, at the LOS, on the field side?
Why was the deep safety worried about the deep pass or screaming down to the mesh point?
Nobody is denying that Tuttle brought a spark or your feelings little buddy. We're talking about why the play that left 2 safeties unblocked worked as well as it did. Try to keep up instead of throwing crap at the wall.
The question you dodge again and again and again is what those safeties are doing and why. I'll ask again and you'll dodge again. Here is the quote:
" Why was he going to the field side jelly? Was he just paying attention to a RB who wasn't there? Was it to deal with the QB on a scrape? Or did the defense not account for that run option? Stop dodging!"
Is that a duck I see? Is that fish I smell? No it's just jelly being jelly.
@ Lank 5:25 p.m.
DeleteAre we in "trust the coaches" mode or not?
Jim Harbaugh had Jack Tuttle as the #2 QB, ahead of Orji, Warren, and Denegal.
Reports seem to indicate that Tuttle was ahead in the 2024 QB competition but injuries derailed his campaign to begin the year as the starter. Now that he's healthy, he's once again ahead of Orji and Warren.
If we're trusting the coaches, Tuttle is the guy. If we're not...well, I wonder why not.
@thunder
DeleteI said Tuttle should start. What is your argument here? What does "the guy" mean? I support every change the coaches have made.
My argument is it's not going to help very much because Tuttle is bad. He had an even worse pff score than orji against Washington. His pass rating is bad. His qbr is mediocre. And his turnovers lost that game. He is who he is. Talentwise A Mac level QB.
Better than a walk on ? Yeah. Better than a three star Junior? Maybe. We'll see! I hope so!
Orji should continue to play, we both agree. The staff should play them both. At this point it's ride the hot hand. The not frozen hand....
I didn't trust the harbaugh staff on medical decisions or end of half clock management but I did on the depth chart. This staff? I'm not sure I trust them on much of anything yet, on offense. They're all rookies on their roles on offense. None of them are harbaugh. None of them have impressive resumes relative to their role like the defensive side of the ball has. But yeah I assume they are trying to play the best guy and if they're undecided it's probably unclear. QB, RB, wr all seem like toss ups.
@Lank 5:33, "I think folks are forgetting how encouraging the first half of the USC game was. Orji's first start and Q1 and Q2 were very good offensively, by 2024 standards"
DeleteThe gimmick came in against ArkSt. 7 of the 9 first plays were runs with Mullings ... Orji attempted 1 pass in that first drive (TD to Hansen) ... that Sunbelt Defense held him to 2 of 4 passing, at 3(!) YPA, with no more than one pass attempt per drive ... Mullings was player of the game with 15att/153yds, 2TDs
Against SC, the gimmick was at 2.7YPA, and 3.3YPC, 0TDs. Mullings was again player of the game, with a historic performance that included highlights we will see replaying decades from now
Result? We replaced the 5star RB most everyone expected to start and potentially make a run toward the Heisman & an NFL career
The only thing encouraging about the Orji era was the emergence of Mullings! Many things can be true at once: Tuttle isn't good, and the the gimmick sucked then & it sucked in Seattle
Result? As soon as the coaches had an option, they benched him for a guy who hasn't played in nearly a year, and only recently returned to practice. Orji is probably a nice guy & class act of a teammate though, for what it's worth
@Lank 5:48, you wanted X&Os, you got em. You wanted quotes, you got em. That you don't understand why a Safety is coming from field side against a pistol formation on a running down does does not help any of your stories
*on the Balas & Skene podcast, they talk about at halftime, jedd fisch says "we had to change how we defend" regarding the QB switch ... well, no defense has been concerned with an Orji pass, but should be alert to his potential to run. So what did Jedd & the Washington D change to?
Also, while they made no mention of MICHIGAN Reads, Doug Skene went on for a bit about how Washington QB2 Williams running Reads off the bench, and how easy it looked
#X's
#O's
#trusttheexperts
The conversation is over
@jelllly
DeleteA lot of words with no point. I'll refer you to my first post here.
"(Not so) Hot take -- all 3 of these QBs are bad. Cycling through them isn't going to fix much of anything. "
Your assertion that one is a gimmick and the others are not is a bad take. The coaches don't agree with you. They are running the offense with all 3 but the QB runs are out with Warren, which hurt the run game. The are IN with Tuttle and Orji, which helps the run game.
We did talk Xs and Os and you got roasted. Who is worried about the pass on the Don run? The 2 CBs neutralizing themselves by the 2 outside WRs. That's it! Everybody else is defending the run. You don't even deny it. You know it but you can't admit because you are ducking and dodging.
I told you why the safety is where he is. You won't answer. Dodge!
Enjoy your fantasies. Nobody believes you but you.
shhhh ... you got what you asked for, and were wrong. Pretending otherwise does nothing for your reputation as a liar
Delete#tooeasy
Sad lies from fantasyland.
DeleteStill no explanation for why one safety was hanging out as the EMLOS on the field and the deep safety was screaming down to the mesh point.
Looking forward to the UFR to diagnose the Edwards TD!
A fresh L coming your way soon. Add it to the stack.
@jellly
DeleteSimultaneous truths. Orji sucks. Warren sucks worse.
"As soon as the coaches had an option, they benched him for a guy who hasn't played in nearly a year, and only recently returned to practice."
They benched Orji to start the season for a guy who hasn't started since JV. That was the end of any hopes for the QB position in 2024. Before the season started.
The coaches continued to have a choice to play Warren for the last 3 games, regardless of Tuttle and they didn't.
You want to focus on Orji because you can't handle the truth -- these 3 QBs all suck.
Not even you believe you.
Ah yes, the UFR. Let's make a bet: $1ooo donation to TTB:
Deletethe UFR will open with explanations of what THEY call formations & plays, because they do not have the MICHIGAN playbook {or the Washington playbook) ... like always, the UFR (FFF & Neck Sharpies too) will include "I think," "maybe," "probably,' "this is either... ," "I don't think" etc ... and then our board Liar will spin it, like he did with Due's "looks like "
Can't make this crap up ... Brian already agreed with Thunder in that the threat of passing changed the way Washington defended Tuttle. Skene said it too. Then, Coach Moore said it. And if that wasn't enough, Coach Jedd Fisch said it ... your original claim was DEBUNKED. Your subsequent dodges, excuses and new stories have not & will not be confirmed, even by your own source
Textbook n0tbUiLtf0rtHiS ... as I said, that case is closed. Take the bet boy!
*this L would bring your total debt to $1oo1
Hold that L up Jelly. You're dodging and deflecting over and over again.
DeleteWas the defense worried about the QB run threat on the Edwards TD?
Yes - yes they were.
Was the defense worried about getting beat by the Tuttle pass on the Edwards TD?
No - no they weren't.
Not even you believe you.
Hold it up.
For the record. Jelly is trying to distract from the point that he got his ass handed to him on the debate of what happened on the Edwards TD. He doesn't know the game.
DeleteHere's my statement:
"LankOctober 7, 2024 at 1:05 PM
@Thunder
The Edwards TD run was opened by the QB run threat.
Not a pass threat."
This is true and correct. The defense is focused on the run and aggressive on stopping the run on this play. They are going 1 on 1 with the outside receivers and playing cover zero, with the deep safety screeming down to the zone read mesh point. They are and not remotely worried about getting beat deep by Tuttle passing the ball deep down field. They ARE in position to defend both sides of the zone read run play that features a QB threat. They burn an unblocked safety on defending the edge that the QB would run if he kept.
Jelly knows this. He took the L on his garbage analysis of the play. He dodges every question about the safeties because he doesn't want to show his ass yet again.
Instead he's deflecting, making a statement that argues with ghosts
.
"Brian already agreed with Thunder in that the threat of passing changed the way Washington defended Tuttle."
Nobody said Washington didn't react to Tuttle jelly. This is your fantasy. This is your lie to yourself.
Nobody argued that Washington saw Orji and Tuttle as equivalent pass threats. But that's the fantasy jelly wants to engage in. Because he's not built for this.
Jelly loses argument after argument and then tries to move the goalposts to lies and fantasies. It's intentional of course, he's just trying distract from all his Ls. Insults, lies, fantasies. Easily avoided if he just could admit he was wrong and knows zilch about football.
This is more fun though.
So back to the topic at hand and not Jelly's fantasies --
The Edwards TD is a CREDIT to Tuttle - he presents a run threat that the defense has to respect, which opens lanes for the RB.
That's something that a one dimensional passing QB (like Warren) cannot do. It is something a one dimensional running QB (like Orji) can do. Tuttle is not good at either thing, but he's good enough at both to not be dismissed as one dimensional.
A good passing QB who is one dimensional (Tom Brady say) could do a similar thing with the pass game. None of our QBs can pass like Tom Brady or anything close. They will all largely be ignored in pass game because none of them are scaring anyone as passers. This is true for ALL of them. So the ability to threaten as a runner is important and valuable, chiefly because of what it does for the RBs.
"Was the defense worried about the QB run threat on the Edwards TD?
DeleteYes - yes they were"
https://youtu.be/ImtcOTRXni8?si=UcnbuGLIp_WY5TU6
As someone who actually knows the game, I can assure you the defense must account for all eligible skill players, on every play
Edwards TD was on 2nd & THREE. Six defenders lined up behind the 1st Down line, a Safety 13yds deep. Two defenders took themselves out of position, chasing our WRs, while another is following our other big play threat, Bredeson
The ball was at the top hash, but at the mesh point the high Safety, Nickel & LBs are headed towards that hash, not in what would be Tuttle's path. All we see in that gap is the Edge (lined up pre-snap), and a blitzing Safety who would be responsible for Edwards popping to the Left as much as a QB keep (never on his heels)
We don't know the play calls, but judging by the positioning, numbers & player movement, the priority was 1) Edwards; 2) pass. Tuttle run was third at best. With Orji in, the pass isn't much a consideration
*two weeks earlier against SC, we let Orji(!) pass on 2nd & Goal from the 3, w/the game on the line. Moore later said 2nd Down is the down to pass
Trust the coaches: once Tuttle went in, Jedd had his team respecting the pass. TOO EASY
✅ quotes
✅ data
✅ links
TAKE THE BET BOY!
ALL THOSE WORDS! Just to agree with Lank in the first place.
DeleteWas the defense worried about the QB run threat on the Edwards TD?
"Yes - yes they were"
That is the point you were arguing with in the first place.
--------------------------------------------------------
"We don't know the play calls, but judging by the positioning, numbers & player movement, the priority was 1) Edwards; 2) pass. Tuttle run was third at best. With Orji in, the pass isn't much a consideration"
False. They were playing cover zero with man to man outside. The deep safety headed straight for the mesh point at the snap. Definitely focused on Edwards but he gets to close to the LOS and can't recover -- why? because he's worried about the zone read that could go anywhere.
"a blitzing Safety who would be responsible for Edwards popping to the Left as much as a QB keep (never on his heels)"
The safety scraping to the field side is, as you admit, there to stop the QB keep. He is not defending any pass. He is the guy that Tuttle is reading on the read play that is called a read by people who understand football.
The play design is to leave the edge player unblocked, and that's exactly what happens.
https://www.coachup.com/nation/articles/the-basics-of-the-zone-read-offense
You assert that the scraping safety is worried about the pass (but he isn't) and the deep safety is worried about the pass (but he isn't really, he's going to the LOS from the snap...maybe with the assignment to cover Don but that's not affecting his ability to defend the RB run). Meanwhile you still ignore the fact that Tuttle is reading the unblocked defender to make him irrelevant. The unblocked defender is a DB playing on his heels at the LOS because if he isn't the QB keep is gashing the defense. No such mitigation is evident for the pass.
With Tuttle in the pass isn't much consideration (2 CBs burned on 2 WRs plus a 1 on 1 matchup with Bredeson LOL). It's one on one with no deep safety help. Same coverage you get with Orji.
Look at the screen. Watch what the defense does. Learn the game.
--------------------------
Mgoblog is Xs and Os to jelly until jelly knows he's about to get called out in the UFR.
Already knows he's taking the L and trying to dodge distract and lie like usual.
#caseclosed
The Don TD against Washington is a classic zone read which is based on the QB being a run threat. Washington reacts aggressively to stop it, scraping to stop the QB run and bringing the safety upfield at the snap. They can't because it's blocked too well and Don makes a good cut and deep safety is out of position (which seems to happen a lot more, coincidentally if you're jelly, when the QB is a run threat).
DeleteMost of Michigan's long runs this season have come on plays where the defense is overly worried about the QB running the ball.
Facts:
Long run against fresno was 21 yards. Tuttle no threat to run.
Long run against texas was 12 yards. Tuttle no threat to run.
Long run against Ark State was 38 yards (with Orji at QB).
Long runs against USCs were 41, 53, and 63 yards (all with Orji at QB)
Long runs against Minn was 27 yard TD (with Orji at QB).
Long run against Wash was 39 yards (on Tuttle zone read)
The QB run threat has been responsible for most of the long gains by Michigan RBs this season. The 63 yarder by Mullings was all credit to him but it was a split zone that was effective on converting 3rd and 1 even if Mullings hadn't gone beast mode on it. The other 30+ yard runs on the season all featured the defense reacting to QB run threat and being out of position as a result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HD8T3xeBbow
Ark State defense has 2 safeties deep here. More worried about the pass than Washington was on the Don TD run here, even with Orji in. Both edges and MLB are attack the QB even as Mullings moves outside at the snap.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXD2ox37OBI
Next we have Mullings 53 yarder against USC. Covered by Mgoblog in UFR. "Mullings rips by, and then the USC safety puts in a -3 by sucking up to the LOS in some sort of quasi QB contain on a scrape exchange. He’s out of position and Mullings hits the jets." This is split zone again a run spread classic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ks-VUQd0E-w
Edwards big run against USC was with Orji of course but not as obvious to credit to the QB run threat. Still, the edge is tearing after Orji off the edge and mgoblog concludes "this got both the LB and the S out of position " -- and that's true even with Orji hardly throwing.
https://www.foxsports.com/watch/fmc-zecs0n1by9aa7nif
The 27 yard TD by Mullings is an inside zone. Again you see multiple defenders watching Orji (who doesn't pass much) and doing things other than paying attention to the RB anyway. They get out of position because of the dual threat QB and blocking execution creates a huge hole and an explosive run by a RB running straight untouched while guys look at the other side of the LOS for something else.
@LyinLank 3:43:
Delete"Worried?" Prove it, LIAR
"That is the point you were arguing with in the first place"
FALSE. You argued against thunder crediting the Pass with loosening up for the Run. I agreed and provided quotes from MGo, Doug Skene, Jon Jansen and BOTH team Head Coaches
"why? because he's worried about the zone read that could go anywhere"
It's got to hurt to assume & insist so stubborly, yet not prove a dang thing. No wonder you lied about Due's Twitter post
"He is the guy that Tuttle is reading on the read play"
Prove that it's a Read. Maybe email the coaches?
"The play design is to leave the edge player unblocked, and that's exactly what happens"
You're either lying or quoting some internet definition without watching THIS play. The Edge (#5) is blocked by Bredeson
"You assert that the scraping safety is worried about the pass"
When did I do this? Prove it, LIAR
No one is on their heels, LIAR
You ask for quotes, and get quotes. You ask for data, and get data. You ask for X&O guys, and you get Head Coaches for the teams playing. It's all a delay tactic and opportunity to keep arguing. Big L
Stop dodging ... take the bet BOY!
@LyinLank 4:27 (two posts an hour apart = RENT FREE)
Delete"They can't because it's blocked too well and Don makes a good cut and deep safety is out of position"
That's what I said in my first video breakdown, if you'd only scroll up ... it's not the Tuttle run, but the murderous blocks by Crippen & ElHadi opening a giant hole for Edwards to race through
Keep this fool posting and soon enough he'll concede his point
White flag accepted
What murderous blocks are deployed on the two unblocked safeties not bothering to defend the pass?
DeleteGood blocking will get a RB a nice gain but on a traditional QB to RB handoff there two unblocked defenders. What happens with those two unblocked defenders is the difference between a conventional gain and a TD. Can get a TD from a great play by a RB - making tacklers miss, or it can be caused by those defenders being out of position (due either to pass threat, QB run, or a bust.) In this case it was the scrape to contain the QB run threat eliminating one guy and the deep safety charging at the mesh point to put him out of position.
Of course you want to see it as all about the RB but it's not. Xs and Os -- not your strong suit. You don't know the game.
all you've got is fantasies ('white flag" LOL)
---------------------------------------------
"You argued against thunder crediting the Pass with loosening up for the Run"
Did I -- or are you spinning? fantasizing? lying? misrepresenting?
Every accusation is a confession!
I didn't argue anything about Tuttle creating a spark against Washington. I didn't argue against Tuttle being more of a pass threat than Orji. He did and he is. The surprise worked for a few series!
What I did do was argue that Tuttle presented a valuable RUN threat which you could see on the Edwards TD. What I did argue about was the sustainability of Tuttle as a pass threat - because he sucks and isn't good enough to scare anyone off of focusing on defending the Michigan run offense.
---------------
You're boring JE. A broken record.
I'll be back after the UFR is posted. Looking forward to you disavowing the Xs and Os analysis you just celebrated earlier in the thread.
#not built for this.
That would be none.
Hold it up.
I think people may have more disagreement with how Wink blitzes. He runs zero blitzes in the red zone and on 3rd and long, all while four-man fronts seem to generate plenty of pressures on their own.
ReplyDeleteI forgot to put in the post that I knew Michigan was doomed when I saw their alignment on that Will Johnson PI call. It's the same exact alignment they showed when Ja'Den McBurrows got burned for that late TD against Fresno State. Michigan was blitzing and just left way too much space out there.
DeleteYes, it's not the blitzing or even the frequency of blitzing, it's the timing and execution of the blitzes that seems to be an issue.
DeleteCan be fixable. Perhaps...
I remember the 1984 season ... Michigan went 6-6. Yeah, injuries: most notably, QB Jim Harbaugh out for the season. The point being, the world kept turning, and life went on.
ReplyDeleteI'm pulling for Sherrone Moore. I think he's a good man. He's got a tough road ahead of him. He has to get through this season without too much damage, and then he has to retool his machine over the winter. It's probably not stretching things too far to say that what he does over this off-season will determine his coaching future. Status quo won't do it. But first he has to figure out where the problems are, then fix those problems.
I congratulated every WA fan I talked to and slept just fine. Michigan is still defending national champs until the calendar says 2025.
DeleteI know Tuttle is not a good QB but in my opinion he is the best of the three. Yes he had a fumble. But fumbles are kind of forgivable for someone who has not been hit for a few months.
ReplyDeleteIn defense to the 2 3andouts. I thot both running backs slipped on first downs. Definitely Edwards when he had a wide hole. Change those and we might have a different ball game. By the way, why are our players slipping so much in this game? From my memory, Jyaire Hill, Edwards, Mullings. Is it because they are pressing?
As far as slipping, I think it just takes time to get used to a surface. Sometimes it's the cleat length, and sometimes it's just know the surface. When Edwards slipped, it was just flat-out poor technique, because he was trying to cut on his inside foot. If he wanted to make that cut, he needed to take shorter, choppier steps and lower his center of gravity and then plant off his right foot.
DeleteThe thing is...Edwards has never made that cut. I don't think he has that cut in him. He was going 45 degrees right of center and needed to cut to 45 degrees left of center - altogether 90 degrees to the left. He's not that guy.
As for Hill, I think he slipped on the first or second drive. The TD he allowed was just when he accidentally stepped on the receiver's foot/ankle and fell down. With that one, you kind of just chalk it up to bad luck.
You've got to protect the ball. Denard Robinson got KILLED by the fan base, for not protecting the ball -- and he threw for 8.4 YPP and Ran for 6.2 YPC. Tuttle isn't doing either good thing, and he's far worse at turnovers.
DeleteTurnovers are forgiveable if they are rare and offset by getting the job done otherwise. Warren and Tuttle have not done that. Orji certainly wasn't getting the job done otherwise but lack of turnovers was something he had been good at in his 2 starts. Something tells me the coaches didn't necessarily expect that to last however.
Turnover avoidance is the key to winning ballgames. Single turnovers against USC and Minnesota almost caused us to lose those games. The two against Washington did.
@ Lank 1:27 p.m.
DeleteAny number of things might have caused the loss to Washington. A loss by two scores doesn't come down to two plays.
Yes, Denard got killed for turnovers. Over a large sample size, he was bad at turnovers. He was not "turnover avoidant."
In this case, we're talking about three below average-to-bad quarterbacks (for Michigan). Every single one has warts. Michigan doesn't have a guy on the roster who's not going to turn over the ball. They all are.
Washington has the #1 pass defense in the country when it comes to passing efficiency, #1 in yards allowed per attempt, and #3 in yards allowed per game. That's not an easy opponent to come back against by throwing the ball. If we're judging Tuttle by how he performed against literally the #1 pass defense, I think that's a little harsh.
Now if Tuttle were turning the ball over left and right against Arkansas State, Fresno State, etc. and we put him in the same bucket as Warren, then okay. The proof would be in the pudding at that point.
But we've had 2+ games of Orji being unable to complete anything more than 3 yards down the field other than 1 intermediate route against Minnesota. It's absolutely awful.
@Thunder
DeleteYes, I mean you are right that you can't JUST put it on the turnovers entirely. But if those turnovers don't happen we probably win, or at least take it to OT with a chance to win against UW. If Orji is turning it over a single extra time against Minny or USC, we lose those games, like we lost to Washington.
By FEI rankings we are talking about comparing similar defenses in Washington (#22), Minnesota (#26), and USC (#30). Turnovers have been an issue in every game but USC and Minny are the two games where they were limited (to 1 by the offense) which seems to be enough to win those 2 games.
Your approach for evaluating Tuttle (excuses, clean slate) is very different than your approach for evaluating Orji. Tuttle is in his 7th year of college football - I'm not going to sit here and pretend like he is a blank slate and Washington is the only game he's every played. He also fumbled and threw INTs when he was started his first games of his career at Indiana 4 years ago. He also threw 2 INTs in 2021 against MSU
I think it would be different if they were just great plays by the defense but Tuttle's INT was a flat out bad throw - not a great play by the DB of the best defense in the country (which UW is not). And the fumble did not seem like a fluke thing either. This is a 7th year player at his 3rd school, not a true freshman playing his first ever game.
I don't think the turnover issues are going to disappear. I'd love to be wrong.
Tuttle is starting the next game. I am not sitting here arguing he shouldn't. I'm simply arguing that he's not a savior because he is not good and we may not be better off offensively than the guy who can't pass effectively. Because that guy at least avoided turnovers and helped the run game. If Tuttle can do those 2 things he is an upgrade because he is a functional passer. If he can only do one of those 2 things he's not an upgrade.
While I maybe wrong in assuming Tuttle will keep turning it over, I am not wrong on acknowledging Tuttle's track record of being not very good didn't just start Saturday.
"Michigan doesn't have a guy on the roster who's not going to turn over the ball. They all are."
DeleteIf you're going to be a "proof is in the pudding" guy - Orji has 1 turnover on the season in a total of about 3 games. Warren had 6 turnovers over 3 games. Tuttle has 2 turnovers in about 2/3s of a game.
Washington's defense is not an outlier of difficulty that should be expected to create an inordinate amount of turnovers and Orji managed to create none on his 3 drives against them.
Bottomline is that I don't think we can assume all 3 of these QBs are equivalent at turnover avoidance. Nor do I think we can assume that Tuttle's turnover issues are a one-off. Nor do I think we can assume Warren can just play a little smarter or whatever and stop throwing picks.
This offense, if it has any hope of being viable this season, needs to run the ball and avoid turnovers. They have to win ugly. Whoever the QB is should be the guy who can best help them win those ugly games.
This is either misleading or plain ignorant
DeleteOrji's turnovers have been managed by the coaches ... middle school QBs have been trusted with throwing tougher routes
The gimmick failed, period
@ Lank
DeleteIf you're saying Michigan would have won the game on Saturday after being down 14-0 with an Orji-led offense that produced 47 yards on the first three drives, I disagree. And I'm curious how you would reach that conclusion.
At this point Michigan's offense is more Alex Orji than anything else. He leads the team in snaps at the QB position. And the offense stinks. They're #100 in scoring offense and #106 in yards per play. The coaches won't let him run a real offense, because they know what I've been saying for a year now. I said this last year that it was concerning that they wouldn't let Orji throw the ball, and you kept saying it was no big deal, he didn't need to throw the ball, etc.
Now here we are.
This isn't middle school. You have to throw the ball downfield. If you can't, you have to run option.
And if you have a QB who can't do either...you don't have a QB! You have a poor man's Ronnie Brown or Hassan Haskins.
@Thunder
DeleteI didn't say they would have won keeping Orji in the game. I said they would have won, probably, if Tuttle hadn't committed those 2 turnovers.
I think the element of surprise at QB, the change itself, helped Michigan on Saturday, but it didn't have much shelf life.
"At this point Michigan's offense is more Alex Orji than anything else"
This is laughable Thunder. Blaming it on one guy who has taken less than half of the snaps is laughable.
There's a whole faction of the fanbase crying about how the offense hasn't been changed for Orji. But that's beside the point... the point is this:
The offense stunk with Warren.
The offense stunk with Orji.
The offense stunk with Tuttle.
You can't pin it on one guy when all 3 guys suck.
"And if you have a QB who can't do either...you don't have a QB! You have a poor man's Ronnie Brown or Hassan Haskins."
I don't think Tuttle is like either guy. Nor is Warren. Those guys have not thrown the ball down the field. I don't know why you insist on pretending that is the choice that Michigan has.
I dunno if you've noticed this or not Thunder but the passer ratings for our 3 QBs are indistinguishable. 101, 109, and 111. So the idea that Orji is vastly inferior to the others doesn't hold up to the production side of things. They all stink! They all lack talent to play QB at Michigan.
You're acting like there's a massive difference between a guy going 10/18 for 86 yards and a guy going 10/18 for 98 yards and I'm not seeing it. You're acting like one guy is Denard Robinson and the other is Tom Brady. But that's not happening here. Orji isn't Robinson. Tuttle isn't Brady. In this offense, Orji and Tuttle are ALSO similar threats on the ground. Closer to say you're choosing between Dan Villari and John O'Korn.
PS. Orji didn't need to throw the ball last year! We won the national title. It didn't matter then. It doesn't matter now.
The number of Orji pass attempts last year matters about as much as it matters how many pass attempts Tuttle and Warren had last year. Not at all.
"Orji didn't need to throw the ball last year! We won the national title. It didn't matter then. It doesn't matter now"
DeleteThis is a completely different take than arguing against why the coaches didn't trust Orji to pass ... It's something we can all agree on! Klein & Guidice don't need to pass either. Kenneth Grant & Jimmy Rolder as well ... Lots of guys fit in that bucket
Finally, a case is closed
Know who the coaches don't trust to throw the ball? Davis Warren.
Delete"Orji's turnovers have been managed by the coaches"
DeleteYes! Effectively! You're starting to get it jeLLLLY.
Now the next step is to identify which QBs have NOT been effectively managed to limit turnovers.
So close...yet so far.
Nope, nor should they have ever trusted Warren. Or Orji. I warned against this back in spring ...
DeleteBut let's break this down with data:
- Attempts: Warren 62 > Orji 43
- Completions: Warren 48 > Orji 23
- Avg: Warren 6.2 > Orji 3.4!!!
The only thing keeping Orji turnovers down was just how little the coaches trusted him to even pass
Perhaps you're right. "Managed" is what the staff tried with Warren. Damage control is what they tried with Orji. Neither worked out. Hey look, we're comparing sh:t again!
LOL are you back to arguing for Warren as the starting QB.
DeleteYou may have forgotten that we beat Minnesota and USC with Orji as QB1. Seems like it worked out alright in those 2 games.
You are right that not passing helps to limit turnovers.
So close...yet so far.
Who said Warren should start? I've argued against going back to Warren, as recently as last week. Making stuff up doesn't help with your rep as a liar ...
DeleteAgainst SC & Minnesota, we won in the back of one Kalel Mullings, period!
You liar, YOU used a period not a question mark. And, they each started three games ... or, is that two high for you to count?
DeleteThree starts ea, orji less than half the completions, and nearly half the attempts & average ... who did the coaches trust LESS with PASSING?
That's an actual question ... don't hurt yourself dodging Lank
Somebody call the punctuation police! jeLLLy would like to report a crime. A question mark has been omitted. Alert the authorities.
Delete"Who did the coaches trust LESS with PASSING?"
They trust Orji more. Orji has attempted 37 passes in the last 3 games while Warren has been seated on the bench, attempting 0 passes. I think the 6 INTs that Warren threw were kinda not so good on the trust side of things.
Any other ?s
Oh shoot I messed up the punctuation again.
Hold that L!!!!!
Congrats on not dodging Lank
DeleteBut you're either lying or not good at math ... they EACH started THREE games. They entrusted Warren almost twice as many passes
lyin or just dumb?
You asked a question and I answered directly.
DeleteHad you asked who the coaches trusted more 3 weeks ago, I'd have answered differently. It's not 3 weeks ago. It's also not 1993.
Not built for this.
So because Warren is not CURRENTLY throwing passes, the coaches don't trust him? Agree
DeleteBut that means I was right about Orji LAST year
#caseClosed
Yes. The coaches don't trust the guy they benched for throwing INTs.
DeleteWarren: 154 snaps and 6 turnovers
Orji: 165 snaps and 1 turnover
Orji replaced Warren because the coaches did not trust Warren to not hand the ball to the other team. And the offense got better overall.
This is not hard. Some people's heads are.
P.S.
Tuttle is on pace to be even worse than Warren's level of turnovers.
Tuttle: 46 snaps and 2 turnovers
Perhaps that's because the Washington defense is an outlier level of difficulty. We'll see...
I mean, you're dodging on the point that I've been right about last year's coaches not trusting Orji with passing ... fine, your concession was enough
DeleteBut to your new point, they benched Orji too. Why? Because the gimmick was inept!
Is your assertion that you are right a question?
DeleteIt wasn't.
Is your lie about me conceded a point to you worth responding to?
No.
But if you want me to talk about it, I'll oblige.
You are NOT right. The coaches have trusted Orji to pass this season - he has 43 attempts in fact. You said they didn't trust him to pass and they have trusted him to pass. In every games except Texas (where Michigan was playing from behind all game). Warren threw more pass attempts than Orji last year (5 to 0 LOL) and yet the coaches have asked both of them to pass, and they benched Warren for Orji after 3 games.
Warren threw more and ran less than Orji per game in his 3 starts but both have been trusted to pass. So -- you were wrong. Obviously.
Moreover, the coaches seem to trust Orji to pass more than they trust Warren to pass for one simple reason -- you have to play to pass. Warren is the 3rd stringer. That "gimmick" didn't work. Having a normal QB - who presents a run threat and a pass threat - is what Michigan is going with at QB1 and QB2 and the one-dimensional guy is QB3.
You were wrong.
Let's do a little quick math about who's most trusted to pass:
DeleteWarren: 24 attempts/game
Tuttle: 18 attempts/game
Orji: 7.2 attempts/game
Orji in the two full games he played: 15 attempts/game
So...yeah, the coaches trust Warren and Tuttle to pass more than they do Orji. If you're arguing otherwise, it's a disingenuous argument.
Another disingenuous argument is to compare snaps and turnovers. If Alex Orji is handing off the ball 90% of the time and Warren is handing off the ball only 60% of the time, there are a lot more opportunities for that ball to end up in the opponents' hands. We all know taking a snap and handing off the ball is a much safer proposition than throwing the ball downfield.
DeleteOrji still wins when it comes to turnover rate, but it's not as drastic of a difference as you're making it out to be, Lank.
@Lank 1:33PM, the debate on trusting Orji to pass was about LAST year ... I even put in all caps for you on Oct 9 at 8:o2AM and then again today at 8:o3AM
DeleteYou're either not smart enough to comprehend or LYING through denial (again)
Everything else is your word salad of an excuse ... clearly not built for this
@Thunder, and then there's the type of pass thrown. Orji throws at or around 5yds on most throws. That's not a sign of trust, but part of a gimmick
*if/when Tuttle gets hurt, I still prefer Orji. Not because he's good, but I naively hope we will be run, Run and RUN some more. With Davis, there's a temptation to throw, and we saw how that worked out
@Anon
DeleteYes - running is less likely to create turnovers than passing. That's a feature not a bug. Noting disingenuous about noting the virtue of a run heavy approach. It's how we won big in 2021.
But the simple way to address your challenge Anon is to look at pass attempts rather than snaps. Orji is also avoid interception on pass attempts.
Orji has thrown 1 interception in 48 attempts
Tuttle has thrown 1 interception in 18 attempts
Warren has thrown 1 for every 12 attempts
This is pretty drastic Anon. Warren is throwing INTs four times as often as Orji and Tuttle is throwing them more than twice as often. Limited sample size, so take it with a grain of salt but it's a fact -- Orji has been far better at avoiding turnovers than the other 2.
Because not only is Orji avoiding turnovers by being more of a run threat than the other QBs, he's also actively avoided making very bad throws that wind up in the other teams hands.
Again, nothing disingenuous about the fact that Orji has been vastly better at avoiding turnovers than the other QBs.
Turnover avoidance isn't the only consideration obviously, but it's a pretty big one.
@Thunder
DeleteThis IS disingenuous. You are holding it against Orji that he had a limited role in 4 of 6 games and crediting Warren for having no role in 3 of 6 games.
To tell this story, pass attempts per snap is the metric you are looking for. Orji surely ranks below the others.
But if we are talking about TRUST the fundamental issue is that you have to PLAY to pass the ball. If you aren't trusted to play you aren't trusted. Warren was benched for throwing 3 INTs against Arkansas State and hasn't played since. Clearly the coaches trust him to throw the ball least of all at this point.
@Thunder Do you disagree that he has not seen the field in the last 2 games because the coaches don't trust him? If not that -- why is he benched?
Since Ark State (when Warren lost coaches trust), Orji has attempted 37 passes. Warren has attempted none. Levels of trust took a turn right here.
It's not case closed because we have half a season left but Warren got benched for a reason. He is bad.
Orji vs Tuttle we can look at Washington as a direct comparison.
Tuttle attempted 18 passes in 46 snaps. 39% of snaps
Orji attempted 7 passes in 16 snaps. 44% of snaps
Against the best pass defense that ever walked the face of the earth (LOL), Orji was "trusted" to throw passes at a higher rate than Tuttle.
-------------------------------------------------------
To be absolutely clear -- I don't see that as a dig on Tuttle AT ALL. One of the best things about Tuttle is that he is a run threat.
One of the best things about Orji is that he is a run threat too -- that makes the defense focus on stopping QB runs, which opens things up for the pass more than it does for Warren.
Warren is one dimensional so even if he IS the best pure passer, he faces a harder job. Tuttle and Orji present a run threat so their job is easier. Orji isn't respected as a passer so he has the easiest job of all (as a passer) - but since he's the worst passer of the bunch (objectively) he isn't taking advantage of it.
All things considered you go back to a metric like passer rating and you end up with similar level of (in) effectiveness for all 3.
Passer ratings: 109, 1011, and 101. All bad
QBR: 36 Warren, 40 Orji, 55 Tuttle
Tuttle is the only one who has his head above water at the moment. He should start the next game.
All 3 QBs are trusted to pass. Orji is the worst passer. We can split hairs about defining trust but it's beside the point. All 3 QBs have been similarly ineffective as passers. Orji is the safest option - fewest YPA, fewest INTs. Warren is the riskiest option - highest YPA, most INTs. Tuttle is the "dual threat" that maybe somewhere in between.
The real argument here is about the relative impact on the run game because the passing results have not been different enough to choose one guy over the other.
@jelly
DeleteAren't you the one arguing you were right last year?
I already know you were wrong then and now shows it. But you want to keep talking about it. So go ahead and pull that L out of your pocket again and hold it up.
Orji is not a good passer and last year he was not asked to pass in any games. Warren is not a good passer and last year he was asked to pass in games 5 times. Neither is relevant to the Michigan football team -- both guys are getting benched for Tuttle,
And Tuttle threw less often than Orji did and got a lower PFF score than Orji did, in a game against Washington, but he's going to start anyway.
It's almost like what happens in practice matters to coaches....
Learn the game!
I'll ask a simple question that is relevant to both the trust issue and Thunder's stats.
DeleteWhy has Orji played in 6 games while Tuttle has played in 3?
I mean Warren obviously. Tuttle has played in 1 due to health. Warren has been healthy all season, like Orji.
DeletePlease make it stop ...
Delete3 posts in 1o minutes. Not even Lank thinks he's right. Here's why:
DeleteLank: not letting Warren pass anymore makes him a bad passer
me: agree
me: and that applies to our Orji discussion last year. The coaches didn't trust him to pass
Lank: WAAAAH ... but they let him run ... and they started him THIS year ... and his passing sucked. But they did trust him
me: agree, they trusted Orji THIS and he sucked. But they didn't trust him LAST year
LANK: WAAAH "Why has Orji played in 6 games while Tuttle has played in 3?"
me: because Tuttle was injured
#caseclosed
Interesting take from a stat nerd visiting Matt & Seth, regarding our QB situation:
Deletehttps://youtu.be/lUiVnkxOSL4?si=7xq7NXSny3V2us_p
also, not surprisingly, Jansen agrees with Thunder & Brian regarding the Washington Defense response to our QB change:
https://youtu.be/QmIAJg6EW-c?si=msOG9YSTNsW1ZAEE
@JEllly
DeleteBack to obsessing over Lank's posting and making up fake quotes.
#fantasy
Thunder ... so I have two questions: let's say you're the QB coach at Michigan, and you're tasked with getting a QB in the portal.
ReplyDeleteObviously getting a stud QB with 5-star everything is the best option, but that's not my question.
Q1 -- If you had to pick ONE (and only one) QB attribute to list as your "most important," what would that attribute be?
Q2 -- Describe the MINIMUM mix of attributes, in order of importance, that you would need to see to consider (not necessarily select, but to consider) a QB for Michigan.
Everything involves balance and trade-offs, and I'm interested in hearing what you would value if you found yourself in that role.
1. I think leadership is the most important quality, but that's hard to define/scout from the perspective of Hudl highlights or whatever. So I'm not saying I know what it looks like from far away. There's a certain baseline necessary. In other words, you can't be a knucklehead or a selfish prick or a lazy worker. If we're looking for on-field attributes we can see, I would say accuracy is the #1 quality. Inaccurate quarterbacks just don't find success at this level. You can be tall, short, fast, slow, have a strong arm, have a weak arm, etc., but if you can't complete passes to open receivers, there's not much that can be done.
Delete2. If a QB doesn't have leadership, accuracy, and a modicum of athleticism, I probably wouldn't take him at this point. I know Cade McNamara got by with basically just the first two in 2021, but that was behind a Joe Moore Award-winning OL with two NFL running backs and a great defense. If you can't count on that - and I don't think Michigan can count on an elite OL and an elite defense every year - then you have to have a QB who can make some things happen with his legs.
Thanks! This kind of insight is great to read.
DeleteI like everything you said Thunder but I would add another thing that can't be measured through highlights -- decision-making. Elite QBs are processing a lot of info and making decisions very quickly. That's not physical talent, and it can be developed through reps to some degree, but there's that kind of talent matters a great deal. Not everyone can think and process that fast, even if they have a cannon arm and run fast. You don't have to be book smart, but you have to be quick thinking.
DeleteLank @ 7:05 -- I think that ability is what separates the very good QBs from the elite QBs. McCarthy seemed to have this ability, and he'll no doubt get better still. I recall seeing something on Joe Montana (many years ago), and how he was just a master at being able to take everything in and process it very quickly to make a decision.
DeleteDrew Brees is the guy I think of. Short, not fast, decent but not great arm. Process time was off the charts.
DeleteBrady too of course.
There were more physically gifted guys all over the place, but their talent lied elsewhere.
It seems like the defensive backfield has also been hurt by the change in coaching. Last year, we had Clink on DBs, Jay on Safeties, and Minter also had experience as a DB coach. This year, we have Morgan coaching both DBs and Safeties (the extra coach be a special teams coach that was an analyst previously), and Wink's background is with linebackers, not the secondary. This must be playing a role in why our secondary looks lost at times. (Also, the elevating of an analyst into a special teams coach taking away a safeties coach seems like another miss by Moore.)
ReplyDeleteI just spent about ten minutes searching for/deleting the posts where people are calling each other "dumbdumb" and "numbnuts." I'm not against disagreeing, but let's stay away from the childish and personal insults, please.
ReplyDeleteAmen. That stuff is tiresome.
DeleteDenard haters -- sure he produced a ton of yards but the turnovers are disqualifying, he put the defense in bad position time and time again.
ReplyDeleteCade lovers -- sure he isn't producing impressive stats but it's all about managing turnovers, supporting the run game, and not putting your defense in bad position. Gotta consider leadership traits too!
Same dudes flip-flop completely in 2024.
Uhhhh...you do realize that the Denard haters and Cade lovers can easily be the same person, right? There's no flip-flopping necessary to go from disliking Denard's play to liking Cade's.
DeleteYes - the venn diagram probably overlap 90%. That's the point. Same dudes.
DeleteThe flip flop is those people (who valued safety over upside when that was a bug of a dual-threat QB and defended a lack of production/upside as winning football) are now embracing the exact opposite philosophy when the dual threat QB's feature is the safer less exciting option. Orji was winning ball games (2-0 with 2 turnovers with Orji , 2-2 with 8 turnovers with others) with a run-heavy cautious approach (a la Cade) while the passing production is better with other options but turnovers cause losses (a la Denard) Now it's "there's more to QB than avoiding turnovers".
It's almost like the logic is applied inconsistently to support a specific bias....
You're pretending it has to be different viewpoints. Turnovers were a problem with Denard. He has literally thrown more interceptions than any other QB in Michigan history.
DeleteYou also can't have a QB who's not gaining yards, putting up points, keeping the defense fresh, etc.
2021 YPP: 6.39
2024 YPP vs. USC/MINN: 4.73
Look, I could go out there and avoid turnovers by catching the snap and curling up into a ball. There are other elements that go into determining what makes a good QB.
Orji isn't good. That's why he wasn't allowed to throw the ball last year. That's why he's played 164 snaps this season and has only attempted about 4 passes deeper than 10 yards in six games. That's why he initially lost the QB job to Davis Warren. That's why he's now sitting behind Jack Tuttle.
Some of us like quarterbacks who can complete passes. Because that's kind of important in modern football. If you're not into modern football, that's fine. The military academies could use a few more fans.
Lank, you might as well change your stats and say Orji is 2-1 (putting him in a tie with Warren). Team was -14pts with Orji and +4 with Tuttle so Orji take the L on that one.
Delete@Thunder
Delete" Turnovers were a problem with Denard. He has literally thrown more interceptions than any other QB in Michigan history."
Warren averaged 2 INTs per game as a starter. That is substantially more than Denard, whose career high was 15 INTs over 12 games in 2011.
I don't know how many career turnovers Denard had (because I don't know how many fumbles he lost) but I know he produced over 10,000 yards while doing it.
Warren and Tuttle are turning it over twice a game. That's more than Denard.
"There are other elements that go into determining what makes a good QB."
This was NOT the argument made when you said Denard was not a good QB. You found the turnovers to be unacceptable.
With Tuttle and Warren. You are good with it.
According to you, only Orji is bad. Tuttle and Warren are talented.
-----------------------------
"Some of us like quarterbacks who can complete passes."
I like them too. What you're ignoring is that Tuttle and Warren have passer ratings of 111 and 109. That's 10% better than Orji. The cost of that 10% is a couple more turnovers per game it seems.
So it's just interesting how you are choosing to frame things so selectively. Suddenly turnovers aren't everything. Results aren't everything. Everything is having a QB who looks like what Thunder wants him to look like.
You're doing exactly what I said. The criteria flip depending on which side you want to argue.
@Blue in NC
Orji is 2-0 when he has been the primary QB. I think that's notable. Michigan produced fewer turnovers and won games with Orji at QB.
Orji is a bad QB. Warren is worse. Tuttle is a bad QB, but I don't know if he is better or worse than Orji yet.
I think Tuttle outplayed Orji in Washington by a hair. He provided a spark and that's enough to give him the start against Illinois, but Tuttle was also bad and, according to PFF, he was worse than Orji in that game. So I'd use both Orji and Tuttle and see what you get next game.
The passing results aren't that different guys! Orji leads the team in TD passes and has the fewest INTs. Tuttle has a track record that isn't very good and he just lost the Washington game with 2 consecutive turnovers. Warren is a walk-on, and a turnover machine, doesn't present a run threat and has a passer rating of 111.
All 3 are bad! But Orji might be the least bad for this team, that wants to run the ball and avoid putting the defense in bad positions.
@ Lank 12:00 p.m.
DeleteYou're saying I said things I don't think I ever said. I don't like the term "unacceptable" because it doesn't make sense. I don't think I ever used it in reference to Denard. What does it mean? Does it mean that I can't acknowledge his turnovers? Does it mean opponents should not accept the interception-worthy throws he made? Does it mean WE CAN'T ACCEPT THIS AS FANS?!?!?! Does it mean he should be benched?
I don't care about bowl games. They're worthless. They probably shouldn't even be a part of anyone's official record when you have the best players on the teams choosing not to participate so they can prepare for the draft and prevent injury.
I'm not going to rehash the Denard Robinson debate that we've had over and over again. I don't like him as a QB. I would pick a lot of other QBs ahead of him. You are free to choose Denard as your QB if you want or like him or whatever. Nobody's telling you to dislike him.
I'm not really sure what Davis Warren has to do with anything. If I had to pick Denard Robinson or Davis Warren as my QB, I would pick Denard Robinson every time. There are varying levels to everything. Denard Robinson is not the worst QB ever. I've even done QB rankings to show that. We're not picking between Denard and Warren. Or Denard and Tuttle. Or Denard and Orji.
We're picking at this point between Tuttle and Warren and Orji. And Orji isn't my pick. He's not Sherrone Moore's pick at this point, either. He wasn't Jim Harbaugh's pick in 2023, either, because Tuttle was ahead of him; and you could argue Jayden Denegal was ahead of him, too, because Denegal attempted more passes.
Nobody's picking Orji. I don't think you're understanding how bad the coaches must think he is. They picked a walk-on with no FBS offers ahead of him. And when that walk-on failed pretty obviously, they turned to Orji. And it turns out that was only because the guy they really wanted - who also doesn't appear to be great - was recovering from an elbow injury.
The guy you want everyone to like has basically never been above third-string. And that's not coming from me - that's coming from Jim Harbaugh, who is a great coach, and Sherrone Moore. So it's okay for us not to be enamored with him.
bringing up DRob is a misleading distraction by a defeated Liar. It's fun to read the unraveling I missed
Delete@Thunder
Delete"The guy you want everyone to like has basically never been above third-string."
He started 3 games and he is currently second string. You are wrong.
I have said Orji is bad. The guy you want everyone to like got benched for Orji, who is bad. The OTHER guy you want everyone to like had a worse PFF grade against Washington than Orji, who is bad. He couldn't keep the QB job at Indiana, which was a bad program. He was bad.
I don't want everyone to like Orji. I want everyone to acknowledge the reality that Michigan has been at it's best when Orji is the QB this year. That says more about Warren and Tuttle than anything else. Those guys suck. They all suck.
"You're saying I said things I don't think I ever said. I don't like the term "unacceptable" because it doesn't make sense."
You said Denard was a bad QB. I don't know if that's acceptable or not.
"He wasn't Jim Harbaugh's pick in 2023, either, because Tuttle was ahead of him"
Harbaugh and Moore played Orji against OSU, Alabama, and Washington. They did not play Tuttle.
You can argue that Tuttle was the top backup if McCarthy got hurt but you cannot argue that Denegal was ahead of Orji based on pass attempts because of the above, spring games, and 2024.
It's a laughable assertion at face, and speaks to the error in your assumption that passing game is the entirety of the QB considerations.
"Nobody's picking Orji."
I assume you mean over Tuttle? We'll see. You and I are both saying he should play snaps. So maybe everyone is picking Orji?
The fact remains that Orji was the starter for the 2 best games of the season (wins over USC and Minnesota). All the passing stat comparisons or analysis of the 2023 passing stats won't change the fact that Michigan's best 2 games of the 1st half of the 2024 season came with a QB who did not get to 100 yards passing.
You either analyze based on results or you don't.
"Those guys suck. They all suck"
DeleteWhen I pointed this out early, you got triggered. From "loser thinking" to months of debating
#iwasright
Keep having that fantasy buddy. You've argued repeatedly in this space how great everyone said Orji was going to be when nobody here did that. Got any quotes or nah? It's your fantasy.
DeleteThe only argument was if Orji's lack of pass attempts was disqualifying. It wasn't -- Denegal and Warren passed more than he did, and those guys are behind Orji now. Irrelevant. What isn't -- Michigan beat USC and Minnesota with Orji at QB, despite 1 career pass attempt heading into the season. Michigan remains undefeated using Orji as QB1 for a full game. You call that a lie but it's a fact. You and facts don't get along.
I told you that Tuttle was going to be the starter over Orji in the offseason and that Orji would be used also. That's exactly what happened. I told you Michigan should have gone to the portal. I told you to expect 8-4.
#iwasright
And it's pretty easy, if you're built for this, to pull up the quotes to prove it.
"LankAugust 13, 2024 at 1:54 PM
I would put Tuttle in the top 20 and expect him to be the top backup if not a part time starter. The injury concern here is very legit, but so is the uncertainty about Orji."
https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2024/08/2024-season-countdown-53-jack-tuttle.html
You were wrong. You predicted Michigan beating Texas with Warren at Qb. AFTER you watched Warren play behind a patchwork OL you still predicted this. You called Fresno a potential playoff team.
#you were wrong
https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2024/09/2024-season-predictions.html
"je93September 6, 2024 at 9:15 AM
I am leaning toward win v Texas. The defending national champions are in The Big House, with the best D in the nation."
Wants some more jelly?
"je93September 3, 2024 at 7:52 PM
Just today YOU gave up on Orji while I see a role for him"
LankAugust 27, 2024 at 3:02 PM
I agree with your QB assessment here Thunder. I just also don't think anybody else looks like a polished passer either. Starting a walk-on or a guy who lost his starting job to Connor Bazelak is also problematic. Our best hopes lie with Orji it seems and he is too unproven to be confident in yet. We can only hope."
https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2024/08/2024-season-countdown-29-davis-warren.html#comment-form
"LankAugust 26, 2024 at 5:21 PM
I agree with you Thunder. If Orji fails, none of the options are pretty.
1. A 24 year old backup transfer from Indiana who keeps getting hurt
2. A 22 year old senior walk-on who hasn't seen a meaningful down
3. A 19 year old true freshman"
Hope and expectations are different things. But you're so thirsty for one single dang W that you keep conflating arguments, making up fake quotes, moving the goalposts, and arguing with ghosts. But nobody believes you jelllly. Hold up your latest L.
#facts
#evidence
#quotes
vs.
#fantasy
#obsessed
#fakequotes
@ Lank 10:18 p.m.
DeleteQB snaps in 2023:
Tuttle: 55
Denegal: 28
Warren: 19
Orji: 16
Even with Orji taking "wildcat" type snaps late in 2023, Tuttle, Denegal, and Warren all out-snapped him. They also had more passing attempts than he did. Any way you slice it, Orji was playing from behind.
In the spring game, lots of people were talking about Warren looking like he could be the guy.
When the 2024 season started, Orji was behind Warren. And then as soon as Tuttle became available, Tuttle moved ahead of Orji. The coaching staff wanted Tuttle to be the guy, but he was hurt.
This coaching staff - and the last one - has done everything it can to avoid being an Alex Orji offense.
@Thunder
Delete"Any way you slice it, Orji was playing from behind."
I don't think so. A different way to slice it is who played meaningful competitive snaps and ignoring what happens in garbage time. Orji was the only one besides JJ in 2023 who got meaningful QB snaps (cat or no cat).
Another way yet to slice it is the spring game stats. 2023 it was McCarthy, Tuttle, Warren, and Orji getting most of the opportunities. In 2024 (with Tuttle unavailable) the spring game pass attempts were Orji (18), Warren (9), Denegal (6), and Davis (4). Orji, Denegal, and Davis also got carries.
"In the spring game, lots of people were talking about Warren looking like he could be the guy."
Yes some were. Same goes for Orji. what's your point here?
Most of the talk at that point was about Orji.
"The coaching staff wanted Tuttle to be the guy, but he was hurt."
We don't know what the coaching staff wanted. Personally I doubt their Plan A was a 25 year old on his 3rd school who failed at Indiana multiple times and besides that cant stay healthy. You really think they had a burning desire to hitch their wagon to that?
I do not. I also don't think they wanted a 22 year old walk-on with no scholarship offers through his junior year of high school to be the guy either.
I think they wanted Orji to be the guy, but he's just not good as good as they wanted him to be, regardless of whatever leadership traits he may have or how great of a teammate he is, he's not playing well at QB. Maybe they thought they could develop him faster or he had more talent than he had.
We don't know what they really thought but what they SAID was more about Orji than anyone else.
"When the 2024 season started, Orji was behind Warren"
When the Washington game started Tuttle was behind Orji.
Does this logic mean the coaching staff was doing everything they can to avoid being a Jack Tuttle offense?
This coaching staff - and the last one - has done everything it can to avoid being an Alex Orji offense."
Other than starting Alex Orji in the last 3 games?
Are we going to pretend that Warren, Denegal, and Davis aren't available like Tuttle wasn't against USC and Minny? And that Tuttle didn't become available until the 4th drive against Washington?
The coaching staff has options. They are all BAD options, granted, but this coaching staff recruited Tuttle to be a backup just like they recruited Alan Bowman to be a backup.
They didn't even Tuttle was going to be available for the season until February!
I don't know what the coaching staff saw or expected at this point, but the your logic of IT WAS TUTTLE ALL ALONG doesn't pass the sniff test.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Every QB they have is bad so they are grasping at straws, throwing stuff at the wall, etc.
Half way through the 2024 season they are left picking the least bad option. Folks on here are adamant that that is definitely NOT Alex Orji. The results say otherwise.
------------------------------------------------------------
It's GOT to be a team that leans of defense, running the ball, and avoiding turnovers. That's their identify. Tuttle and Orji should both get the opportunity to prove that they can lead the team to victory going forward. If Tuttle can be a veteran who makes good decisions and manages turnovers, he'll get the bulk of meaningful snaps and Michigan has a good chance of getting to 8-4. If he looks like the guy who he was at Indiana, on the last 5 drives against Washington, or he is injured again, he will not last long.
I hope it's the former.
1) Show me where I claimed others said Orji was "great." You can't, LIAR
Delete2) Show me when I said Orji was "disqualified." You can't, LIAR
3) When I said 4 losses (or more) with either Orji or Warren, you said it was "loser thinking"
4) Yes, I was wrong about TEXAS. And FRESNOST. And ArkSt. And FresnoSt. But I was right about USC
5) I was right in that there is a role for Orji
None of these points contradict what I said
On 1&2, same bet as earlier if you can prove it, BOY
On 3, still waiting
On 4, wtf does that have to do with this?
On 5, I was right. So?
You're distracting from being owned, and dodging on the bet ... nothing in your post has any value. Just another big fat L
#outsmarted
#n0tbUiLtf0rtHiS
@jelly
DeleteYou predicted 9-3. You are on record. Maybe 8-4 or 10-2 (hedging is OK) but you did not predict 8-4. That would be a lie.
https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2024/09/2024-season-predictions.html#google_vignette
You WON over the people who predicted great success for Orji. That was nobody. You made up fake predictions. Congrats on your fantasy.
"je93September 6, 2024 at 8:27 PM
"He made QB comparisons to Tebow/Cam (two of the best College QBs of the century), CJ Stroud (one of the best young NFL QBs) and ... wait for it ... Nik MF Stauskas!!! It only took one game, and now numbnuts has given up his misplaced hope, calling for 7 or 8 wins. Pathetic"
Just here fantasizing and now back to namecalling for lil dumbdumb.
The only one you outsmart is yourself because every W is made up. No quotes. No links. No evidence. Just wishful feelings and obsession.
"I said 4 losses (or more) with either Orji or Warren, you said it was "loser thinking"
DeleteNot even jelly believes jelly
je93September 30, 2024 at 8:49 AM
"I know it wasn't pretty, but as stated on Game Day the 2nd Half was more like a practice session than a game. We saw a lot of 21 personnel, and Orji stuff was experimented & repped.
No loss "should" be surprising this year, but I expect them to go to Washington with a full roster and game plan that wins for 4 quarters"
Expecting a win against Washington after 2 games of Orji. Just like expecting a win over Texas after watching Warren.
Nothing but lies and fantasies.
"I told you so!"
Except you did not. Wrong again. Wrong always.
Doesn't know one lick about football post-1993.
Probably none back then either.
@jelly
DeleteDestroyed.
No quotes. No links. No facts. #not built for this
Now go back to counting my posts little boy! That's math even you can handle. Use your fingers if you need the help. #built for that
3 posts = rent free
DeleteThe blocks opened a hole from the top hash to the sideline numbers ... a truck could drive through there
Corners chasing WRs out of the play; Safety running himself out of the play; LBs eating blocks; an Edge getting BLOCKED by bredeson ... that's how our speedy WR takes advantage of a WIIIDE hole created by our OL, and scores a TD
I guess I'm okay with teaching you the game, so go ahead & keep asking. I'm here for you
Soooo ... you don't disagree with Thunder? Okay, case closed then!
*yes, I know you're dodging on the bet. Take the bet BOY!
Denard went 11-2 and won a major bowl. The only other major bowl this century.
ReplyDeleteAnd was entertaining, electric, fun to watch.
Personally, I do not care if Michigan is running the Army offense as long as we are winning. We all enjoyed last year’s win over Penn State right? Winning is the most important thing.
ReplyDeleteNow the issue with selecting the QB going forward is that right now we have a very small sample size. Also, all our 3 QBs are quite bad at QB. (Which is why I am ranting why no portal QB).
Within that context, I think Tuttle has to be the guy going forward. He can run a little. He can pass a little. He is not good but at least he moves the ball. Yes Orji does not turn the ball over but also not effective at gaining yards. Once the defense figured out how to defend the run, it is almost game over for the offense. Run 70% Pass 30% Some gimmick play. I think with Tuttle at QB, we can be a middling Big Ten offense which is the best possible outcome for this season. Middling Big Ten offense does not mean 0 turnover every game but it means we occasionally can top 150 yards passing.
I do realize that Orji is 2-0 (more 2-1 if you count the Washington game) but given that the offense cratered in the second half (defense figured out our run game) and couldn’t score a point against Washington, I think the coaches are right to make the switch to Tuttle and should stick to Tuttle for at least the next 2 games.
The coaches aren't running the Army offense. If they were Orji would clearly be the guy. They aren't. Sam Webb (among others) was telling us they weren't changing the offense to suit the QB back in the spring. The only change is which page of the playbook is getting turned to more often depending on the QB.
Delete----------------------------------------------------
Tuttle should start. He's the only "dual threat" we have.
Orji should be rotated in on some series. That will help keep the defense guessing a bit and reduce the injury risk exposure for Tuttle. He can't just run, he has to continue to mix in pass threats to try to be a dual threat.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
"He is not good but at least he moves the ball. Yes Orji does not turn the ball over but also not effective at gaining yard"
Tuttle offense vs Wash: 8 drives, 17 points, 2 turnovers
Orji offense vs Minn: 11 drives, 27 points, 0 turnovers
Orji offense vs USC: 12 drives, 20 points, 2 turnovers
"Once the defense figured out how to defend the run, it is almost game over for the offense."
Tuttle's final 5 drives produced 3 first downs and 2 turnovers.
Michigan's come from behind drive against USC was 8 runs and 2 passes.
If this offense defines it's success by passing yards instead of points scored, it is doomed.
Thankfully Sherrone Moore does not think that way and is happy to SMASH. That's the only hope for this team. There is no hope for a good passing attack, whether they pass for 150 yards or 80 yards, success will come on the ground.
Correction:
DeleteTuttle offense vs Wash: 8 drives, 17 points, 2 turnovers
Orji offense vs Minn: 11 drives, 27 points, 1 turnover
Orji offense vs USC: 12 drives, 20 points, 1 turnover
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tuttle's TOs led to 10 points so that nets out to +7 for Tuttle offense against Wash. (Orji +0)
Orji's TO vs Minn led to 7 points so that nets out to +20 for Orji offense
Edwards fumble TO vs USC led to 7 points so that nets out to +13 for Orji offense.
Even if you discount Orji offense for two short-field TDs against Minnesota, you still get the offense playing at it's best with Orji at the helm.
The second half of the season could be a different story. But in the first half of the season the team performed best with Orji at QB.