Fresno State transfer quarterback Mikey Keene has committed to Michigan. He has one season of eligibility remaining.
Keene is a 5'11", 200-pounder who spent two years at UCF before transferring to Fresno for the 2023-2024 seasons. When he was at UCF with Gus Malzahn as head coach, new Michigan offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey was his offensive coordinator for one season, a 2022 campaign that saw Keene complete 60/83 passes (72.3%) for 647 yards, 7.8 yards/attempt, 6 touchdowns, and 1 interception.
Hit the jump for more.
This past season, Keene went 6-6 as the starting quarterback for the Bulldogs (they finished 6-7 after a bowl loss without Keene), who faced a bit of adversity when head coach Jeff Tedford stepped down over the summer due to health issues. They opened the season with a 30-10 loss to Michigan in which Keene completed 22/36 passes for 235 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, including a pick-six to Will Johnson. Overall, though, Keene put up decent numbers in 2024 with 70.5% completions (277/393 passing), 2,892 yards passing, 18 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.
For his career, Keene has completed 793/1170 passes (67.8%) for 7.0 yards/attempt, 65 touchdowns, and 28 interceptions. He's not much of a rushing threat, with just 2 rushing touchdowns in four years and a career average of -3.1 yards per attempt (including sacks).
As a high school player coming out of Chandler (AZ) Chandler in 2021, he was a 3-star, the #57 quarterback, and #819 overall. Along with UCF, he had offers from the likes of Coastal Carolina, Hawaii, Iowa State, Nevada, Tulane, and Yale. Keene never lost a game as a starter in high school and led Chandler to two straight state championships in Arizona in 2019 and 2020.
Diehard Michigan fans are probably more intimately familiar with Keene than they should be, because we spent all off-season looking forward to the season-opener for 2024 and wondering how the small but efficient QB for Fresno would play. He threw for 366 yards and 4 touchdowns against Purdue in 2023, so there was a healthy bit of respect for how he might perform on a big stage. And while Fresno State lost to Michigan by 20 points, I thought Keene acquitted himself fairly well. He just was playing with one hand tied behind his back against a talented Michigan defense.
As a thrower, Keene has a little bit of Russell Wilson moonball in him. Since he's a short quarterback, he has to try to find passing windows, and his lack of great arm strength requires him to be accurate and put air under the ball. The numbers show that he can be accurate and efficient. When given a throwing lane, he has a quick release and can put the ball on the money on short throws with a little bit of zip.
Obviously, Keene is not a runner; he can move around in the pocket a little bit and can get on the edge with some boots or sprint-outs, but he's not going to add anything in the run game - much like Davis Warren and Cade McNamara in recent years. He is also not someone who is going to be able to push the ball downfield on long-developing deep routes. If he hits deep throws, they're going to have to come on short drops where he can toss up 50/50 balls against press man coverage.
Overall, I'm a little disappointed but not surprised that Michigan took someone like Keene. It's a plus that he has experience with Chip Lindsey and his coaching points, but the athletic limitations put a cap on what the offense can do. It was always going to be a long shot that any noteworthy transfer QB would want to come to Michigan, considering the #1 overall recruit in the 2025 class will be waiting to take over at some point. If a quarterback has one or two years left to make an impact, does he want to spend that time looking over his shoulder at Bryce Underwood? In the cases of Miller Moss (USC to Louisville), Billy Edwards (Maryland to Wisconsin), and Brendon Lewis (Nevada to Memphis), they all chose to play for inferior programs rather than risk losing playing time to Underwood.
Michigan's quarterback room for 2025 now consists of Keene, Underwood, Davis Warren, Jadyn Davis, and Chase Herbstreit; both Jayden Denegal (San Diego State) and Alex Orji (destination TBD) have entered the transfer portal. I suspect Keene probably jumps to the top of the depth chart for the season opener, but by the end of the year, it would not be surprising at all to see Underwood take over the starting job.
Very disappointed & but not at all surprised. Moore needed better
ReplyDeleteIf he wins the job, my too early guess is that he loses it by the open week
Moss was the one needle-mover I heard about. Some of the dual threat guys were intriguing but, well, that doesn't seem to fit the direction of Moore and company. I find it hard to get too worked up about the difference between say Edwards and Keene. Edwards would have been preferred but they both feel like placeholders.
ReplyDeleteThe mgoblog guys talked about setting up the offense for Underwood and question the fit for Keene. I agree that the offense should be geared toward Underwood but I think that you want to bring him along pretty slowly (like they did with JJ and McNamara early in 2021). So if the offense is leaning into the short stuff a bit more (to fit Kenne) I don't see a conflict for Underwood, at least early in his career. You can expand the playbook later but you don't want to put too much on a freshman's plate.
As far as the run element goes -- you can put in an Underwood package (a la Orji and various others) if you want to do that for a change of base. But they are probably never going to run a ton with Underwood as there is perceived risk to him being exposed to injury that way. I'd be OK with doing away with the package entirely (or handing over the wildcat stuff to skill position guys like McCulley, Semaj, etc.) Moore and Lindsay don't have to continue this Harbaugh tradiiton.
Obviously Underwood is going to play but I think it's possible he could be used more or less like a conventional backup in 2025. I think Keene should be solid and likely a substantial upgrade to the Tuttle/Warren/Orji show. Hopefully if Underwood passes him (not a sure thing) it is because of merit, not need.
I look forward to seeing it play out.
I'd prefer that we just run the kid out there and take our lumps ... or not. Spoon feed him the offense that he can handle with a few elements that he can't ... yet, and let the chips fall where they may.
ReplyDeleteHis history indicates to me that he can get it done as a freshmen maybe more so than as an upper classman.
Would like to hear your thoughts on Daman Payne if you get a chance. I was told, "run thumper".
How much of an upgrade is this over Warren Davis?
ReplyDeleteSorry, meant Davis Warren
ReplyDeleteI think it's a pretty significant upgrade. We're talking about a guy with almost 1,200 pass attempts, compared to a guy who has just about a half season of starts under his belt. He's been under fire and performed adequately, whereas Warren was about as likely to bust as he was to make a decent throw. Again, I do think Warren improved throughout the season and will be better in 2025, but he won't be to Keene's level.
DeleteHopefully Underwood is even better.
Thanks Thunder!
DeleteI agree with Thunder's comment here.
DeleteI'll add that with a better supporting cast, you can see a guy like Keene elevate substantially - it worked for Rudock and you've seen other guys like Speight and McNamara fall off when not surrounded by the same level of supporting cast elsewhere.
But what's our supporting cast looking like? OL is anywhere from big question mark to concerning. No playmakers at WR. Small, noodle arm QB. I think we'd all welcome an experienced TE who can block
DeleteAfter the Haynes addition, our best or at least most promising unit is probably ... RB?
A valid question Jelllly our offense still looks pretty mediocre by Michigan standards let alone a national contender, but I think we can still confidently assert that the supporting cast for Keene will be better at Michigan than it was at Fresno State.
DeleteEven if it's just the guys they return. Marshall is a 4-star recruit who emerged into the rotation by the end of the season, McCulley was an all big ten HC WR a couple years ago, Klein is a proven starter, Morgan has made some big plays while at Michigan -- if those guys were transferring to Fresno, they would be pretty dang excited.
Keene has got to be pretty happy about the upgrade in talent he is about to experience. As for us, we already had a small noodle arm QB and a weak WR room in 2024. Things should be better if our new small noodle arm QB is throwing INTs half as often. It's a talent upgrade on our end as well (at QB).
It's all relative.
"better at Michigan than it was at Fresno State ... "
DeleteOof. Memories of the "loser thinking" remark last off-season
But again, it's like you sensed agreement and had to pivot: ...Marshall "emerging" is a gross exaggeration. He got seven garbage time carries in our biggest blowout victory, followed by ONE carry after our RB2 was injured & RB1 was run for +3o attempts in the final game
Your memories suck jelly. The quote you won't link to because you are desperate for someone to bet you about something you did (or didn't say) -- but no one cares? Loser thinking indeed! The "thinking" part is generous , but the other part is spot on. #still so thirsty
DeleteThanks for bringing up the 2024 OSU game -- Our starting RB going down didn't seem to matter against OSU yet again. No Edwards no problem - Mulling and Marshall take over, just like in 2022 when it was No Corum no problem.
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Marshall didn't play early in the year so yeah "emerging" to get meaningful snaps against OSU and 8 carries in the last 2 games is a pretty big departure from early in the year. He's also expected to start in the bowl game, so there's that.
Meanwhile Justice Haynes had 10 carries in his last 2 games and won't play in the bowl game. What's the opposite of emerging?
Haynes is like Hall - a junior who has never been a feature back.
He's all of 1 class ahead of Marshall. That appears to be a big deal to Thunder but not to me. I would expect a heavy rotation next year and would not be remotely surprised if Marshall gets more carries than Haynes by the end of the season.
But that's all tangential because somebody just likes to argue.
"The supporting cast for Keene will be better at Michigan than it was at Fresno State."
You don't even disagree but here you are thirsty AF
Hold it up
HA, no disagreement ... just another rambling essay, desperate to argue with je93. White flag accepted
DeleteIs Marshall emerging yet?
DeleteHold it up jellllly
FWIW, Haynes had a higher rushing grade and a higher overall grade on PFF than Jam Miller. Not sure what was going on with the snaps/carries in the last couple games, but you never know if there was an injury or some other sort of issue holding him up.
DeleteYES ... Marshall emerged and was the OMVP as a result of proving that RBs do matter
DeleteInterestingly, the long line of edge rushers has continued at Michigan for much longer than the running back success. When it wasn't Taco Charlton, it was Chase Winovich. And when it wasn't Winovich, it was Uche. And when Uche moved on, it was Paye. Then Hutchinson and Ojabo. Then Morris and Harrell and Stewart. And when Stewart opted out, it was Derrick Moore getting 2 sacks in the bowl game.
DeleteThe argument about "running backs don't matter" has often cited Donovan Edwards replacing Blake Corum at the end of 2022, so surely a new argument titled "edge rushers don't matter" will center around Derrick Moore replacing Josaiah Stewart at the end of 2024.
When it comes to defensive ends, people talk about the development of those players through S&C/coaching and the expertise of Lou Esposito, Greg Mattison, Mike Elston, etc. and a knack for scouting the right players and deploying them properly.
It's weird that the same logic isn't applied to running back...