Arkansas safety T.J. Metcalf, a cousin of NFL wide receiver D.K. Metcalf, committed to Michigan on Monday night after visiting over the weekend. He and his younger brother Tevis are both now Wolverines. (I'll address Tevis in a separate post.)
T.J. is a 6'1", 200 lb. safety who made 57 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 3 interceptions, and 7 pass breakups playing a deep safety role for the Razorbacks. He made 2 interceptions against Auburn, which made Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze tear his hair out and publicly call out (former Michigan State) quarterback Peyton Thorne. One interception was a tipped ball that bounced up into the air, and the other was a diving catch. Metcalf's other interception was against UAB.
Metcalf has a strong build and should be an asset both as a tackler and a coverage guy down the road. While his performances have been up and down, he should get better coaching at Michigan than he got at Arkansas. With Michigan losing both Quinten Johnson and Makari Paige to graduation, along with key backup Wesley Walker, there's room for immediate help. I would probably pencil in Metcalf as a starter at free safety, though there is potential for Rod Moore to return in 2025, which could shake up the lineup or the depth chart.
Metcalf was a 3-star, the #51 safety, and #541 overall in the class of 2023. Michigan had offered him out of Pinson (AL) Valley, along with Florida State, Miami, Penn State, and Tennessee, among others.
Best guess at safety rotation could be some combination of
ReplyDeleteMetcalf
Hillman
Curtis
Mangham
No single guy is a sure thing (or even particularly likely) to be an all conference player but that's 4 very good pieces with high potential, talent and at least some meaningful experience. Could take Metcalf a bit of time to settle into Wink's defense, as we saw with Walker, so I would expect the rotation of guys (multiple starters, in-game rotation, movement between positions) to continue as we've come to expect, including overlap with nickel.
The above assumes that, if Rod Moore comes back, he would move back to nickel and be a full time starter there. That does seem like the spot where he can be most impactful.
If Moore is back and safety remains so well stocked, the secondary is probably one starting caliber CB away from looking very very strong. Even without another addition, if they keep Hill and get growth from him, move Berry to CB full time, and let Edmonds and/or any standout freshman rotate behind them (plus portal depth guys like Ricky Johnson and Tevon Metcalf) I would say the secondary would be in great shape.
As these portal additions trickle in, my confidence in the 2025 roster grows.
Hard to project though since there are new faces moving in and out of the portal everyday. Last december we assumed Sabb and Waller would be on the team this year. The portal additions (or even rumors of them) seem to push some guys out the door.
With Moore back, he's a rotation guy
ReplyDeleteStill need QB, more OL & WR, CB & maybe a LB/inline TE ... do we take a RB?
Is Moore confirmed coming back? I think the biggest need is at Tackle (Offense and Defense), maybe even more than QB.
DeleteThere hasn't been any confirmation that Moore is coming back.
DeleteQuarterback is the most important position on the field. I agree that tackle is a big need, but Michigan isn't going to the CFP with who they have at QB in 2025. I like Underwood, but he's a freshman. To make the CFP from a big conference, Michigan's going to need good QB play.
You can make the playoff with a pretty weak QB if you have the supporting cast around him and manage him to avoid mistakes.
DeleteWe made it before with Cade McNamara who very clearly is not a good QB by college standards. Now it's easier to get to playoff than ever before with 12 teams. Indiana made it with a 6th year transfer from Ohio. We would have made it with Speight in 2016. Etc. It can be done.
I don't think very highly of Mikey Keene but he's an experienced vet who will be 22 years old come fall. If he has the right supporting cast he can do better than McNamara. I think a Passer Rating of 140-150 and a QBR of 70-80 is achievable at a place like Michigan, even for a 3-star type of talent who ranks as the 40th best QB in the portal or whatever.
For those impressed by completion percentages on easy throws -- you got your type of guy! LOL.
To me, the key to our QB success in 2025 is you got to have an OL who can protect him and provide a reliable ground game -- we need Grant Newsome, Juan Castillo, and Sherrone Moore to get our OL back closer to 2021-2023 levels than 2024.
And we need Chip Lindsey to put together a coherent offensive strategy built off the SMASH program philosophy.
Keene is the level of portal QB we should expect NEXT year, with Underwood as a shoe-in starter and Davis to compete with at backup. We need better for 25
DeleteIs a guy who threw short passes at the Group of Five level an improvement over a guy who threw short passes for M last year?
Delete@anon
DeleteYes Keene is far better than Warren. That's why they paid to get him.
Despite Warren being a year older than Keene, Keene is vastly more experienced. 8,245 yards vs 1,215 yards passing in their careers.
He also does a far better job limiting turnovers (Keene throws INTs about half as often as Warren).*
You can compare pretty much any stat you want and Keene is clearly superior. Passer Rating 140 vs 110. YPA 7.0 vs 5.8. Completion percentage 68% vs 62%.
You can try to make an excuse about level of competition or Kirk Campbell but these two went head to head in September on the same field and Keene was the better QB. He was the better QB while playing Michigan's defense while Warren played Fresno's with Loveland, Mullings, Edwards, and company on his side.
Neither is very exciting. Neither presents a run threat. Neither was recruited by many schools outside of the Ivy leagues in high school. Neither is going to be in the NFL. But Keene is a legit D1 scholarship QB with a lot of experience. Davis Warren is a walk-on.
*For anyone arguing Warren improved with playing experience over this season, he has thrown an INT every 21 passes over his career. In the last 2 games of the season he threw one every 17 passees. Despite rarely attempting anything downfield, he is an INT machine. Meanwhile Keene throws one every 40 passes or so. Even if those are mostly short passes, it's an upgrade.
A) I agree that Keene is a superior QB to Davis Warren.
DeleteB) Your numbers for Warren are incorrect, Lank. Warren threw 3 INTs in his last two games, on 41 attempts. 41/3 = 13.7
C) I think Warren improved throughout the season and also still kinda stunk. He played the #1, #6, and #9 teams in the country over his final four games. That's a tough slate for anyone, but especially a walk-on-type QB with no receivers.
Interesting. When the stats demonstrate clear upgrade, Lank believes in them ... but when they don't, he wants to talk about HS recruiting rankings
Delete@Thunder
DeleteIt's 51 attempts not 41. Had 35 vs NWU and 16 vs OSU. I think Warren probably improved in some ways, but INTs were still a problem. 51/3 = 17 which is worse than his career number of 21 passes per INT.
Of course you can get a lower number if you add the 3 games before but I think we saw what Warren was against OSU. John O'Korn but worse.
@jellllly
Rent Free
I talk about HS recruiting at QB just like WR.
Nice try but you failed again.
Keene was a legit D1 prospect since he got a scholarship at UCF and Warren was is and will always be a walk-on caliber player. Maybe Warren could have changed that with an impressive senior year after he transferred (in a world without his cancer becoming an issue) but that's a hypothetical and pure speculation - it would have been outside of standard recruiting cycles. Could have been a Herbstreit type of situation perhaps, but that is a counterfactual.
If I really did fail, where are your stats in support of Morris? Why lean on HS recruiting rankings?
Deletehttp://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2024/12/donaven-mcculley-wolverine.html
#exposed
#links
Does paying for Keene make him better? Or is the staff misallocating resources?
DeleteFalse dichotomy.
DeleteHe's better because he's better. They wouldn't pay for him if they didn't see him as an upgrade.
Staff can misallocate resources even if there is an upgrade. That's a different question.
Top outstanding portal needs in order are
ReplyDeleteOL,
OL again,
TE (in-line blocker),
CB (if Hill leaves this moves up), and
WRs who can get open (if Morris doesn't return).
-------------------------------------------
DL: In good shape with projected top 6 (Payne, Benny, Pierce, Moore, Guy, Barham). Youngsters should be knocking on the door to fill out behind them.
LB: In good shape with Rolder and Bowles, assuming Hood (vet) and Sullivan (youngster) are available behind them. Barham returning to play EDGE but that's one hell of an insurance policy at LB.
DB: Top 6 or 7 looks strong (Moore, Hill, Berry, Metcalf, Hillman, Mangham, Curtis) as long as one of the kids behind them can step up in the CB rotation. Edmonds? Earls?
OL: I trust El Hadi to lock up a starting spot. After that it's....TBD.
FB: Gotta get Bredeson back for his last year or hit the portal for an impact blocker.
TE: Klein looks to develop into a solid player but not an all conference type if he's your TE1. Hansen looks promising as a receiver. Marshall can fill a rotational role and Tonelli maybe too? No standouts or impact blockers and not a lot of depth here, so a Portal addition would be nice.
RB: Marshall and Hall seem fine pending their blocking/receiving ability showing up. If Haynes comes through the portal the rotation deepens but don't have to stretch to bring anyone in. Options for an upgrade seem limited for now.
WR: Talent and experience are still pretty questionable even with McCulley added in. Another starting caliber player (or at least Morris back) would be good. If Morgan and O'Leary are your 2 and 3, you're weak, even projecting improvement for Moore, Bell, Walker.
QB: Bridge year. Need to mitigate limitations, be they physical (Keene) or experience level (Underwood). Don't put too much on your QB and you'll be alright.
I forgot Hausman obviously. Oops.
DeleteHe's one of the stars of the defense, along with Benny, Moore, Moore, and Barham.