Bill Connelly previews the 2012 Michigan Wolverines, and he thinks nine wins would be a successful season. That might be a successful year, but that would be a slight disappointment now that Brady Hoke started off with eleven victories in his first season.
Pretty great article IMO, and I love the link to the stats stuff he does.
IMO, this season isn't so much about the overall record (9 wins) as it is about the Conference. It'll be no great disappointment in the non-conference schedule, even if we lose to both ND and 'Bama. But if we can't turn it around against Iowa and especially MSU...if we lose both games in Lincoln and Columbus...that will be disappointing.
Iowa, Nebraska, OSU, MSU: those 4 games, in order of increasing importance, are the ones I want to win. Outside of that, it's a matter of not getting upset or (against 'Bama/ND) not getting embarrassed.
6-2 in conference play - that's the bar for me. Better than that and it's a good year. 3 losses is a bad year, even if they manage to take one of the non-conference games.
I agree. This is the sort of season where we just need to win the B1G, and it's a success. Win the B1G and we're playing in the Rose bowl, our second BCS game in as many years. 2 for 2 in going to BCS games for Hoke will be the narritive, even if we're 9-4 going into it.
That said, I don't think 9-3 is very likely. My expectations for this year are more bi-modal. We're either 7-5 (+- 1 game) or 11-1 (+-1 game) at the end of the regular season. It all comes down to injuries at the places were we lack depth. Denard will halve his interceptions, which will make up for the turnover margin regression. The DL will be ok, while LB and DB are strengths, which is all Mattison needs to keep the D good. If we're healthy, the only team that we shouldn't be favored against is 'Bama, and that's because even healthy, I think they still win in the trenches. On the other hand, we could lose depth on the line in the 'Bama game, and then we're going to struggle as Freshmen are put into service. In that case, watch out, as they will be picked on by every coordinator we face.
Pretty great article IMO, and I love the link to the stats stuff he does.
ReplyDeleteIMO, this season isn't so much about the overall record (9 wins) as it is about the Conference. It'll be no great disappointment in the non-conference schedule, even if we lose to both ND and 'Bama. But if we can't turn it around against Iowa and especially MSU...if we lose both games in Lincoln and Columbus...that will be disappointing.
Iowa, Nebraska, OSU, MSU: those 4 games, in order of increasing importance, are the ones I want to win. Outside of that, it's a matter of not getting upset or (against 'Bama/ND) not getting embarrassed.
6-2 in conference play - that's the bar for me. Better than that and it's a good year. 3 losses is a bad year, even if they manage to take one of the non-conference games.
I agree. This is the sort of season where we just need to win the B1G, and it's a success. Win the B1G and we're playing in the Rose bowl, our second BCS game in as many years. 2 for 2 in going to BCS games for Hoke will be the narritive, even if we're 9-4 going into it.
DeleteThat said, I don't think 9-3 is very likely. My expectations for this year are more bi-modal. We're either 7-5 (+- 1 game) or 11-1 (+-1 game) at the end of the regular season. It all comes down to injuries at the places were we lack depth. Denard will halve his interceptions, which will make up for the turnover margin regression. The DL will be ok, while LB and DB are strengths, which is all Mattison needs to keep the D good. If we're healthy, the only team that we shouldn't be favored against is 'Bama, and that's because even healthy, I think they still win in the trenches. On the other hand, we could lose depth on the line in the 'Bama game, and then we're going to struggle as Freshmen are put into service. In that case, watch out, as they will be picked on by every coordinator we face.