 |
| Southfield (MI) Southfield defensive end Lawrence Marshall |
I wrote up a scouting report on him just . . . uh . . . yesterday. That has pretty much all the information you might need.
As I mentioned in said scouting report, Marshall looks like a guy who could start off at weakside end as a youngster and eventually bulk up into being a strongside end. In my opinion, he's not an elite pass rusher, and he lacks a variety of moves that would help him circumvent college left tackles. Those pass rush moves can be taught, however, and Marshall does have decent athleticism and pretty good straight line speed. People have asked me if I think he can add enough weight to play on the strong side, but current starting weakside end Frank Clark came in at about 6'2" and 215 lbs. and is now almost 280 lbs.; Marshall will be coming out of high school 10-20 lbs. heavier than Clark did and with an added inch or two in height.
You can see that I have some questions about Marshall, and there's also evidence that kids who change their commitments during the recruiting process often struggle to find success at the next level. Maturity and level of commitment come into play when talking about kids who make such big decisions rashly. Hopefully, for Marshall and Michigan's sake, he breaks that trend. In the above linked scouting report, I made comparisons to Craig Roh - who started off at WDE before bulking up to SDE - and Tim Jamison, who remained at WDE throughout his career. Jamison was a better athlete than Marshall coming out of high school, but the weight he added in college seemed to slow him down just enough to prevent him from becoming a top-notch player. However, Jamison has been a fringe NFL player, and Roh signed with the Carolina Panthers as an undrafted free agent, so following in their footsteps would be a pretty decent achievement.
Marshall is the ninth commitment in a class that is probably going to be in the upper teens or maybe even reach twenty, so we're about halfway home. Michigan is also looking to take at least a couple defensive ends in the 2014 class, with guys like Detroit (MI) Loyola's Malik McDowell and Woodbridge (VA) Woodbridge's Da'Shawn Hand still on the board. The only other defensive lineman currently committed is Salt Lake City (UT) Highland's Bryan Mone, a defensive tackle.
TTB Rating: 72 (ratings explanation)
I'm not sure that theory holds up about kids who change their mind. There's anecdotal example of success (e.g., Trey Burke) just like there are examples of failure.
ReplyDeleteI'll reserve judgement and trust the coaches to evaluate character. So far, it seems like this staff has done O.K. on that front. There will always be some problems but this staff's list of questionable character-related events (Kellen Jones, Frank Clark, Chris Barnett, Kaleb Ringer) seems relatively short.
Please explain how Kaleb Ringer was a character issue? By all accounts his transfer is injury and/or depth related, and has always been considered to be a stand-up guy. IDK about Jones (recall him following some coach from Oklahoma to Clemson), but Barnett was too overweight to play (due to injury), and Clark has clearly made-up to the coaches.
DeleteThere's not one rule to define kids who change their minds, but there was an article recently about prospects who change their minds, and the results were not very good.
DeleteKellen Jones was a Rodriguez recruit.
Barnett had issues. It wasn't just about weight.
@Thunder - Haven't seen that article, but I doubt it's persuasive. It seems like one of those judgements people want to make without having much evidence for.
DeleteYou're right about Jones being a Rodriguez commit, but he left and recommitted to Hoke/Matison. You could blame Hoke for taking guys like Jones and Bryant and Posada, but realistically there wasn't time to do full character evaluations on every kid that Rodriguez had recruited. To some extent, the 2011 class is one that shouldn't count against Hoke (or Rodriguez). Just a difficult situation for either coach.
@Anon - it has been written that there were questions about Ringer's work ethic from the day he joined the program, well before the injury. That doesn't mean he's a bad guy, just not a good fit for the program. Barnett had character red flags flying all around him - but the coaches needed a TE and he had talent. A risk worth taking, IMO, but it didn't work out. Clark may have made it up to the coaches but the kids he stole from probably aren't big fans, right? The point is, no coach is right about character every time. Even the best (like Beilein) make mistakes on occasion.
"I haven't read that article, but I'm probably right and it's wrong."
DeleteThen again, it's Lakwonda, so is anyone surprised?
@BB
DeleteBlast away. If your opinion is instantaneously changed by somebody telling you "an article" was written to the contrary - that says something about your intellect.
Boom, Googled!
Deletehttp://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/andy_staples/01/20/commitment.project/index.html
Players who decommited were almost twice as likely to not qualify, transfer or be dismissed.
Lank has time and time again showed us his/her opinion is the only thing that matters.
Delete-JC
@Anon 8:47
DeleteThanks for the link. I checked it out and the article says that if you had a 20 person recruiting class of decommits, 7 would fall under "failed to qualify, transferred or were dismissed", while 4 would do the same for a 20 person class of 'regular' commits. Not a huge difference, especially considering the dataset is only 62 people over 5 years (or less than 3 recruiting classes worth... think about what assertions we could make about Michigan recruiting if we picked 3 recruiting classes and drew conclusions)
Still, clearly there is some evidence the assertion is true, regardless of quibbles or rigor. I wouldn't say it nearly as strong as Thunder did: " kids who change their commitments during the recruiting process often struggle to find success at the next level", but it's not an unreasonable thing to say. Just as my opinion, which, to remind the sensitive folk like @Anon 9:46 out there was: "I'm not sure about that" and "I'll trust the coaches". Way out on a crazy limb there.
@Anon 9:46
The internet is no place for opinions. Besides yours, of course.
I appreciate your not always glowing evaluations. Hypothetically where would you rate a guy like Marshall in a national rating (example top 200, 300. I know this is probably impossible since you have a Michigan focus but how many guys out there do you think are better prospects?
ReplyDeleteThanks
I'll take a stab and say he should probably be in the 200-250 range. I don't know of 200 prospects who are necessarily better than him, but based on past years, that's about where I'd slot him.
DeleteI'm surprised you have him that high. Your evaluation of him doesn't seem like you think he's a top 250 player (which ends up being 4 stars).
DeleteWhat's the likelihood of LM becoming a DT and not an DE/LB?
ReplyDeleteNone?
DeleteHe only weighs 215-225 depending on the site you read; he would really need to pack on the pounds to be a DT. However, Jabrill Black is slated to be the starting 3 Tech for UM this season (I still am not a fan of this move, btw, as I like DT's to be 290-ish), so you never know.
I see you give him a rating of 72 which I think fits pretty well as of right now..Also I see you use Craig Roh as somewhat of an comparison. I would like to know what you would rate Roh now if he was coming outof high school? Would it be a similar ranking?
ReplyDeleteWhen a commitment occurs I think it would be nice to see a list of other recent (1-2yrs back) commits and their TTB rating on the same page for the same position. Just a thought.
ReplyDeleteMaybe - but ratings from previous years are easily accessible by using the offer board tabs at the top of the page.
Delete