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| Michigan commits Michael Ferns III and Chase Winovich |
I wrote a scouting report on Winovich in mid-May, so you might want to check that out for comments on his play.
The other two finalists for him were Pitt and Ohio State, in that order. Michigan was the last of that trio to offer, but he made a few trips to Ann Arbor and felt more comfortable there. His older brother Peter was a quarterback-turned-fullback at Bowling Green from 2004-08.
Winovich was recruited by Michigan for the SAM outside linebacker position, which he fits pretty well at approximately 6'4", 215 lbs. He'll have to add bulk, obviously, but he has good length and skills for the position. Friend and fellow 2014 commit Michael Ferns III was recruited to play middle linebacker, but he also has the size and skill set to play SAM down the road if needed.
When Winovich arrives on campus, Cameron Gordon will have graduated, Jake Ryan will be a redshirt senior, and Mike McCray II will be a sophomore. McCray's size and skills for the SAM are in question, too, so there might be an opportunity to surpass him or bump him over to MIKE.
Michigan is now up to eleven commitments for the class of 2014, a class that should reach 16 or more. They could settle with two linebackers, but they could also take the "best available" guy at any of the three positions, such as Junipero (CA) Gardena Serra's Dwight Williams or Orange Park (FL) Oakleaf's Darrion Owens. With depth and competition somewhat thin at SAM, I would like to see the coaches continue to pursue Owens; Williams, who would play WILL, would just be a luxury at this point.
I'll be interested to see how Winovich performs as a senior once he has presumably added a few pounds, but for now I'll give him a TTB Rating of . . .
TTB Rating: 79 (ratings explanation)
Highlights from Hudl.
He made mention that he will play QB his senior year, with limited time at LB, so I would'nt expect him ratings to change anywhere
ReplyDeleteStar ratings and such aside, if you just sit there and watch the vids, you gotta think that a linebacker class of Ferns, Winovich and Darrion Owens is as good or better than anybody's in the country, I don't care who they are, or get. I'm hoping nobody told Winovich that he's the only SAM this year because as much as I like Winovoch, I'd be taking Owens in a heartbeat.
ReplyDeleteOwens has a very good offer list for a 3-star, but I think Michigan can get more impressive prospects next year. They've taken extra LB's the last couple years, so they can afford to wait IMO.
DeleteWilliams is probably too short to be a SAM, but if a top 5 prospect wants to come, you usually make room.
Again, I understand that these are highlites and as such, missed tackles, assignments and random screw-ups aren't there.
DeleteBut if you watch this kid's highlites, he goes straight to the ball and if you happen to have the ball, he lays you out. Then, when it's time to cover, he gets back there and covers. He's a big strapping kid that can run some, hit and cover and looks to be a man when it comes to taking on a blocker.
He looks to me like a kid who would have played at Miami back in the day when everybody hated Miami (except for those games when they happened to be beating the snot out of Notre Dame).
I'd take him so fast the entire state of Florida's collective head would spin.
I don't think Owens will remain a 3* player. His recruitment is starting to really heat up. I would be very pleased to have him in this class.
DeleteI agree about Owens. I think he'll end up as a 4-star.
DeleteHopefully he can redshirt and then play sparingly / not have to start until he is an upper classman. Starting freshmen and redshirt freshmen the last few years I believe has really hurt, no matter how much raw talent they exhibit, mistakes will be made.
ReplyDeleteCould have all Ohio kids starting at LB soon!
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ReplyDeleteAttractive michigan girl of the week?
I think they should be done at LB and wait till next year to fill out the depth. Last year they were passing on elite LB's (e.g., Levenberry) and given where Ryan and Ross are tracking, Michigan's not going to have any trouble attracting elite prospects in the next few cycles. This year, it just hasn't worked out that way. They got Ferns, but other guys at the top of their list ended up elsewhere (e.g., Berger). Winovich was a 3rd or 4th option at the position, though a pretty darn good one for that.
ReplyDeleteWinovich's offer list is very impressive, far better than a typical 3-star. FSU, Stanford, VaTech, OSU, MSU -- these are defenses that know what they're doing and the geographic spread/national attention is impressive. The offer list is usually the best indicator and his is mid 4-star-level at worst.
Berger sounds like a better prospect on paper, but decision-making is very important for linebackers. Advantage Winovich on that first test.
I don't think Levenberry was an elite linebacker, but that's neither here nor there...
DeleteWinovich's offer list is right in line with the #29 linebacker on Rivals for the last several years, actually.
Levenberry was rated very highly by the recruiting services. I know you didn't like him as much, but I think we can agree Michigan was quite selective the last few years, with Ringer being the only sub-4 star guy to Rivals.
DeleteThough you are right to point out (indirectly) that Winovich is on the high end of the 3-star list, his offer list is more impressive than either guy next to him in the Rival's rankings and more impressive than many guys ahead of him including players of interest like Bullogh and Swain. Even Berger, were it not for the 'Bama offer, wouldn't be as strong. Maybe there are good reasons for it all but nonetheless - Winovich's offer list is quite good especially when you take into consideration the programs defensive coaching. Aned - Rivals isn't the only site calling him a 3-star, they're all doing it.
Some staff's opinion's carry more weight IMO - (e.g., Iowa's secondary recruiting, MSU's RB recruiting, Wisconsin's OL recruiting). If a LB gets offers from VaTech, MSU, and Stanford, plus a host of other higher profile programs (FSU, OSU, Michigan) - he's probably better than your typical 3-star LB.
I very much doubt his offer from FSU was legit seeing the guys they already have committed and they guys they are in on. You've got to be careful about talking about "offer lists." A lot of schools throw out a TON of uncommittable offers.
Delete@MFan4Life 2:58 p.m.
DeleteThe thing with comparing offer lists is that if you question Winovich's, you also have to question those of the guys you're comparing him to.
@MFan
DeleteYeah, there's no perfect measure, but the offer lists seem to be more accurate than rankings unless there is something unusual that would influence it.
Those schools that throw out "uncommitable" offers - their offers wouldn't carry as much weight, though I can't say I know those many are. There is no question that some offers are thrown out to get or gauge interest, especially when distance is a factor, but that is still a positive sign.
On the other end - there's players like Jourdan Lewis and Shane Morris who other schools barely bother to recruit.
Still, when Winovich is getter significant interest from the west (Stanford), south (FSU), east (VaTech) as well as the better programs locally, I'm thinking he's legit, in a way that most unanimous 3-star recruits are not.
Serious question - why do people care about what happens to recruit's rankings after they commit?
ReplyDeleteOur coaches have already decided and the rankings aren't going to affect how well they perform. In no way am I arguing recruiting rankings aren't useful as indicators. Just, once a guy commits, what difference does it make what a handful of evaluators think?
Ok ..... Who the hell are you and what have you done with Lanknows.
Delete"Serious question - why do people care about what happens to recruit's rankings after they commit?"
DeleteI think "bragging rights" is the answer. Ultimately it doesn't matter. I doubt recruits make their decisions based on recruit class rankings. Being a school in the top 10 recruiting no doubt helps, but ultimately the decision to go to, say, a Florida vs. a Michigan is made on things other than recruiting rankings.
The tale of the tape is really the recruit's play on the field and the contribution that recruit makes to the team's goal to win. If we could recruit 2* players that accomplished good things on those two scores ... then fine.
@DonAZ - I suspect bragging rights are part of it - getting the class highly ranked. But to me that's missing the point. You want a highly ranked class because it means you get good players, not vice versa. Again, rankings do matter in aggregate, but an after-the-fact adjustment because a kid got an offer from Michigan or a little more attention is 'politics' more than anything else. Yet you see comments from people (like the recruiting guy at Mgoblog) openly rooting for the recruiting analysts to revise their judgements as if it changes anyone's fate. I find that baffling.
DeleteI want highly rated players at Michigan, and I am interested to read what Rivals thinks about kids objectively. But if the coaches like a 2-star above a 4-star I don't really care if Rivals changes their minds or not after he commits. Doesn't matter if they revise or fix their assessment or keep it the same. The kid is who he is.
I agree about rankings and changes to them. The kid's going to be the same player, regardless of what Rivals or Scout or ESPN or 247 says.
DeleteTrue, but that could be said about ratings in general. They're fun because they provide predictive information.
Delete