Thursday, May 3, 2012

2012 NFL Mock Draft Review

Dontari Poe is probably going to be a bust
I didn't do that great with my mock draft, but who does?  Thirteen picks were swapped after I wrote up my mock draft, and there were some head-scratchers in there (Dontari Poe? Bruce Irvin?.  I still got the first four picks right (pretty much), along with the eighth pick and the 32nd pick.

1. Indianapolis Colts
My pick:
Andrew Luck
Actual pick: Andrew Luck.
Hooray for the obvious selection!

2. Washington Redskins
My pick:
Robert Griffin III
Actual pick: Robert Griffin III
Hooray for a second obvious selection!

3. Cleveland Browns (from Minnesota Vikings)
My pick:
Matt Kalil
Actual pick: Trent Richardson
The Browns moved up one spot to get the guy they probably could have gotten at #4, although it was rumored that Minnesota was shopping the pick to other teams who were interested in slipping in there to get Richardson.  I think that was probably all smoke and mirrors, which turned out to be good for the Vikings.  Good for them, bad for the stupid Browns.  But the Browns did need a running back.  It's a good pick, but they gave up too much.

4. Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland Browns)
My pick:
Trent Richardson
Actual pick: Matt Kalil
The Vikings moved back one spot, got a few extra draft picks, and still got the left tackle they needed.  Good for them.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
My pick:
Morris Claiborne
Actual pick: Justin Blackmon
I don't think Blackmon is going to be a superstar at the next level, but he's going to be a solid receiver for many years.  The Jaguars probably gave up a little too much to get him, but they needed an infusion of talent at wide receiver and Blackmon probably wouldn't have lasted with the Rams next on the clock.

6. Dallas Cowboys (from St. Louis Rams)
My pick:
Justin Blackmon
Actual pick: Morris Claiborne
The Cowboys needed a second corner to go along with Terence Newman, but they still need to shore up the middle of the defense, too.  I thought getting Alabama safety Mark Barron would be a smart choice here even though I think Barron was a little overrated.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Jacksonville Jaguars)
My pick:
Melvin Ingram
Actual pick: Mark Barron
I like this pick by the Buccaneers.  It's a new regime with Greg Schiano as head coach, but they seem to develop their safeties pretty well.

8. Miami Dolphins
My pick:
Ryan Tannehill
Actual pick: Ryan Tannehill
I hate this pick, but I told a good friend who's a good friend that it was going to happen.  I think he's going to be a bust in the same vein as Ted Ginn was a few years ago.  What a waste.  They would have been better off picking a defensive back like Stephon Gilmore and grabbing a guy like Brock Osweiler later.

9. Carolina Panthers
My pick:
Fletcher Cox
Actual pick: Luke Kuechly
I think the Panthers should have shored up their interior defensive line before picking a middle linebacker, but it's still not a bad pick.

10. Buffalo Bills
My pick:
Riley Reiff
Actual pick: Stephon Gilmore
I've never seen a top ten draft pick be more unhappy about being chosen, other than maybe Eli Manning by the Chargers.  Gilmore either hates the Bills or just hates the cold.  Or he's just not a happy person.  It was weird to watch him approach the podium.

11. Kansas City Chiefs
My pick:
Luke Kuechly
Actual pick: Dontari Poe
Bust.  Good grief, what a horrible pick.

12. Philadelphia Eagles (from Seattle Seahawks)
My pick:
Quinton Coples
Actual pick: Fletcher Cox
This was a good pick.  Lots of people expected Cox to go higher, and the Eagles need help up the middle.

13. Arizona Cardinals
My pick:
David Decastro
Actual pick: Michael Floyd
Floyd is a good possession receiver, but I've never been blown away by him.  I also thought he would drop due to his drunken driving issues, but apparently that didn't sway the Cardinals.

14. St. Louis Rams (from Dallas Cowboys)
My pick:
Mark Barron
Actual pick: Michael Brockers
Brockers seems to be a one-dimensional run-stopper without much of a pass rush, so I'm not a big fan of this pick.

15. Seattle Seahawks (from Philadelphia Eagles)
My pick:
Michael Brockers
Actual pick: Bruce Irvin
This was a major reach by the Seahawks.  He might turn into a decent player, but they could have grabbed Irvin in the second or even third round.  This was the strangest pick of the evening.

16. New York Jets
My pick:
Nick Perry
Actual pick: Quinton Coples
I didn't really expect Coples to still be available, but this pick makes sense . . . because Rex Ryan is a moron.  He's already got locker room problems, so he might as well add a guy who's known for going hard only half the time.

17. Cincinnati Bengals
My pick:
Chandler Jones
Actual pick: Dre Kirkpatrick
I like this pick for the Bengals.  I think Kirkpatrick is a solid player who won't turn into a Hall of Famer but will be good for a long time.  He's a physical corner with good coverage skills.  I was hoping he would be around for the Lions at #23.

18. San Diego Chargers
My pick:
Whitney Mercilus
Actual pick: Melvin Ingram
Same position, but an upgrade in talent.  I thought Ingram would be gone in the top ten, so the Chargers got a little bit lucky here.  We probably won't hear a whole lot about Ingram because he'll play on the west coast, but I think he'll develop into a Pro Bowl player.

19. Chicago Bears
My pick:
Dontari Poe
Actual pick: Shea McClellin
Poe was gone (did I mention the Chiefs made a horrible pick?) and the Bears stayed on the defensive line.  I like the McClellin kid and he should fit in well there in Chicago opposite Julius Peppers.

20. Tennessee Titans
My pick:
Stephon Gilmore
Actual pick: Kendall Wright
Wright is a second round talent, in my opinion.  Maybe even third.  I think he's going to fade into oblivion and/or be a journeyman.

21. New England Patriots (from Cincinnati Bengals)
My pick:
Michael Floyd
Actual pick: Chandler Jones
If Jones can stay healthy, he'll be a good outside pass rusher for a team that's been lacking an edge rusher.  I don't think I would trade up for a guy who's a little injury-prone, so it's a bit of a gamble.

22. Cleveland Browns
My pick:
Stephen Hill
Actual pick: Brandon Weeden
I actually like Weeden as a football player, but I don't think he's the type of quarterback you take when you're rebuilding.  He's the type of player a team should take when they're just one or two players away from making a run at a title.  By the time the Browns get their entire franchise turned around, there will only be a short window for Weeden to play before the 28-year-old starts to go back downhill.  He'll probably be 31 before the Browns are any good.

23. Detroit Lions
My pick:
Dre Kirkpatrick
Actual pick: Riley Reiff
This was a great pick for the Lions.  Reiff could have gone in the top ten or fifteen, but he fell to them because other teams moved up to grab skill players.  I wanted the Lions to grab Kirkpatrick here, but that was before Reiff fell.  Given the choice between the two, I think cornerback was a bigger need . . . but Reiff is a good consolation prize.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers
My pick:
Jonathan Martin
Actual pick: David DeCastro
This is a good pick for the Steelers, who need to get younger on the offensive line.  DeCastro is a better player than Martin, so it's a good thing for the Steelers that he was still available here.

25. New England Patriots (from Denver Broncos)
My pick:
Jerel Worthy
Actual pick: Dont'a Hightower
The Patriots seem to be taking their defensive woes seriously.  With Jones and then Hightower, the front seven issues are getting addressed.

26. Houston Texans
My pick:
Rueben Randle
Actual pick: Whitney Mercilus
With Mario Williams heading to Buffalo in the off-season, the Texans needed another pass rusher.  Mercilus slipped a little bit, so this turned out well for the Texans.

27. Cincinnati Bengals (from New England Patriots)
My pick:
Courtney Upshaw
Actual pick: Kevin Zeitler
This is another good pick by the Bengals, who need interior linemen to help their running game.

28. Green Bay Packers
My pick:
Shea McClellin
Actual pick: Nick Perry
This is essentially the same position, but Perry is maybe a step down from McClellin.  I really like the way the Packers play defense, and I think Perry's going to do well there.

29. Minnesota Vikings (from Baltimore Ravens)
My pick:
Peter Konz
Actual pick: Harrison Smith
Based on recent history, Smith is going to fail in the NFL like virtually every other Golden Domer.  I don't like this trade or the pick for the Vikings, but hey, they're in the NFC North with the Lions, so what do I care if they suck?

30. San Francisco 49ers
My pick:
Kevin Zeitler
Actual pick: A.J. Jenkins
This is a strange pick, because Jenkins isn't a first round talent and the 49ers already have a couple decent wideouts.  It's not a bad idea to plan for the future, but still a little bit of a reach.  I would have taken Rueben Randle over Jenkins, too.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from New England Patriots and Denver Broncos)
My pick:
Don'ta Hightower
Actual pick: Doug Martin
Martin fits in well in Tampa Bay.  He's a power runner with a little bit of burst, and I can see why Greg Schiano would want him - he's a little bit like former Rutgers tailback Ray Rice.

32. New York Giants
My pick:
David Wilson
Actual pick: David Wilson
After the draft, I saw a mock or two that had Wilson going to the Giants here.  But I'm going to pat myself on the back for this one, because I had no idea that he was projected by anyone to go in the first round.  It just seemed to me that he would fit in well with what they like to do and they had an opening at RB with Brandon Jacobs going to the 49ers.


  1. Note: The Vikings and the Lions play in the NFC North.


    1. Sorry, I reverted to the old timey language and called it the "Central" division. It has always made me sad that the Buccaneers were kicked out of a division that also held teams from Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

  2. Not sure if my 1st comment went through. Sorry if this is posted twice. The cowboys need a corner to go along with Brandon Carr. Terrance Newman was released.

    1. Gotcha. I hadn't heard that Newman was released.

  3. Wow, you're pretty confident on Poe. I realize he wasn't good in college, but those combine numbers are pretty outstanding. It's a risky pick, but I'm holding off judgement. People who didn't produce in college can end up having NFL success.

    Do you think the Lions should have taken DeCastro (and found a tackle in the 2nd or 3rd round?)

    What do you think of the Lions taking Broyles?

    1. Lank, you should probably take a look at the All-Combine performers list at some point. Precious few of them did anything noteworthy...and those who did were also monsters in college.

    2. Yeah, I'm pretty confident on Poe. He's not a good football player. He's one of those guys who did great at the Combine and inflated his draft stock. Good for him because he's going to be pretty rich being the #11 pick, but it's not good for the Chiefs.

      I'm not a big fan of the Lions taking Broyles in the 2nd round. They obviously didn't *need* a receiver. They need help in the defensive backfield. But I do think Broyles could be a good NFL player. Good player, bad pick.

  4. I like the Reiff pick. You can always move a tackle inside, whether it's Backus, Reiff, or Cherilus.

  5. I like the Reiff pick, I thought the Broyles pick was good because I didn't see any real second round corners left who could be as good in the NFL as Broyles will be when CJ is triple teamed, and I like the way they addressed their needs at LB and CB. Go out and get 7 of them with potential and see which ones work out. I think the Lions got the best backup QB out of the draft and they didn't even draft him, btw. Lol, Miami.