Sunday, July 20, 2014

Big Ten Blog: Preseason projections - East Division

Josh Moyer looks at the odds for each team in the East Division. The numbers suggest that Michigan will go 9-3 and have a 12.7% chance of winning the Big Ten.

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12 comments:

  1. I actually agree with their predictions. Good job by ESPN for a change.

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    1. Really? Do you really think Michigan will have a better season than East Lansing? I think they will go for 10+ wins this year...

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    2. MSU takes a step back on defense next year, which is not saying a lot because they had their best defense ever in '13. But I think they'll have trouble replacing Lewis, Dennard, and to a lesser extent Allen. They'll be good again of course, but not lights out. That coupled with a weaker O-Line and I think we'll see MSU in a bunch of tight games in '14. Guessing that both Hoke and Meyer beat Dantonio next year, they lose at Oregon, and then perhaps lose one other game to go 8-4 or 9-3.

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    3. Not sure why its so hard to believe Michigan will have a better season.

      I agree Painter Smurf. That's basically what these predictions are saying. MSU will be in a lot of close games. Their offense isn't good enough to not be.

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  2. These predictions are very well done. Michigan's schedule lays out nicely, home and away and isn't backloaded like it was last year. Despite the offensive struggles, one or two more extended offensive drives in many of our losses would have resulted in 4 more wins. The historical bad luck didn't help either.

    Its between us and Ohio State for the East. The schedules for both Michigan and Ohio State lay out better overall than MSU and these odds confirm it. Indiana is improved and will get their revenge on them from 2012 after blowing a 17 point lead. Penn State has no true bowl game and has been incredibly tough to beat in their last game of the season (2-0 during the sanctions) MSU plays its last game is at Penn State.


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    1. I don't understand why people are underestimating MSU. They have Connor Cook to lead the offense now and they've been reloading on defense for many years now. Their coaching staff obviously knows what they are doing and they just went 13-1.

      I'd be very surprised if Hoke can manage to beat Michigan State this year. I am a Michigan fan and I am expecting a 9-3 type of season in which Hoke does just enough to earn another year and get 10+ win with an easy schedule and his recruits becoming upperclassmen in 2015.

      Hoke will probably go 0-3 or 1-2 against the rivals this year, and I'd be very impressed if he can beat MSU or OSU.

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    2. MSU had a year for the ages last year. Not sure why you would take their best season in 40+ years where everything lined up for them (their best defensive backfield ever, they pull a QB and RB out of their rear ends, etc.), and project it as expected now? Cook was particularly clutch in big games. But the offense was pretty ho-hum statistically last year and that won't cut it again. MSU will have more difficulty running the ball next year and I think they'll be easier to pass on. But I think OSU fixes their defensive problems to some extent and UM will be better all around in '14.

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    3. This is spot on Painter Smurf. I don't understand why people ignore the weak schedule aspect. Their QB has a lot of mechanical flaws that will be exposed this year imo.

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    4. Not really sure if MSU had a weak schedule last year. They played ND (which they lost before figuring out the QB thing), Iowa, Neb and Michigan, before beating OSU and Stanford post-season. Had their staff stuck with Cook in the ND game, they might've been in the national champ game. Cook has some stuff to work out, I agree, but this kid is going to be something special. He still has 2 more years of eligibility and I think he has higher ceiling than Kirk Cousins.

      I agree they lost a number of great players, but they were in this situation before, and their system is fully humming now imo. They will pull another 10+ win season, though they might not make the playoffs. I am thinking 2 losses at max. I just can't understand why ESPN underrates them this much.

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    5. Avoided regular seasons against Ohio State (Columbus), Wisconsin, and Penn State - the three top teams from the other division. Stanford was pretty overrated too, they had the worst losses of all the BCS teams and were probably most favorable matchup imo. I just don't see 10 wins with their schedule.

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    6. Not to make an argument, but no B1G team plays all the conference top dogs in a single season. They had their share of difficult games is what I am saying. Stanford under David Shaw had at least 11 wins every season. Lost a close one against Utah and USC... I don't think Stanford was/is overrated.

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  3. The new division will solve the issue for the most part. It should be a fun season.

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