On 2nd-and-goal from the 1-yard line, you run the ball with Marshawn Lynch or Russell Wilson. Touchdown? Yay! No touchdown? Call a timeout.
On 3rd-and-goal from the 1-ish-yard line, you pass the ball and tell the quarterback not to take a sack, throw the ball out of the endzone if necessary. Touchdown? Yay! No touchdown? Huddle up if it's incomplete, or have a second play called in the huddle.
On 4th-and-goal from the 1-ish-yard line, you can either run or pass and try to score.
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Some of these statistical arguments lack the common sense factor. In the game of chess or strategy ,Belichick was a step ahead and his players made the play.
ReplyDeleteTo me, this is similar to the NBA Finals 2013 end of Game 6. People already (incorrectly) assumed the game was going to be won (Spurs), just like they assumed the Seahawks would win after getting to the one yard line. You haven't won anything until the final buzzer sounds. Too many assumptions are made that a given result is guaranteed and that clouds peoples' opinions and reactions after the fact.
That's why these games are fun and awesome to watch. They aren't played on some computer or simulated. No one would watch sports if every game result was predicted beforehand.
You can't quantify gut and instinct. Belichick's defense was perfectly aligned to stop the play and he coached up Butler to be ready for it.
Like you said Players make plays - just two plays before, an insane catch was made - that was probably "statistically" unlikely.
Belichick made the correct call - he knew what he was doing, had his players ready, and won the game.
I thought Carroll had a nice play, maybe he should have saved it for third down, but talk is cheap on the sofa.
ReplyDeleteIt took two great defensive plays to make that pick. The first by whichever New England Safety it was that jammed the slot into the route and in so doing picked the outside receiver forcing him to bend the route while preventing the pick that was intended for Butler to happen. it was that play that allowed for Butler's just terrific break on the ball. And of course Butler, who made a very tough catch.
I thought Seattle had a good football play, unfortunately for them, NEW ENGLAND MADE TWO GREAT ONES.
In the end, it's about what works and what wins. If he ran Lynch and NE had stacked him up for a two yard loss, you'd have people saying "Way to be totally predictable, Pete! Like everyone on the planet didn't see that play coming!"
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