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| Quarterback Shane Morris got his first career start and did a solid job. |
No semblance of a running game. Oh, yeah. About that. Well, despite what I think is a mediocre group of interior defenders, Michigan couldn't get any push up front. The young offensive linemen weren't whiffing on blocks like they were early in the season, but the Kansas State defensive tackles were controlling the line of scrimmage and letting the linebackers and safeties clean up. Michigan's coaching staff seemed to realize their struggles up front, and despite having a fair amount of success with the fake bubble screen draw in the previous couple games, the play was basically abandoned for a couple straight-up inside zones and a bunch of reverses, sweeps, touch passes, etc.
Rich Rodriguez stopped by to coach the defense. I like defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, and since I'm not an idiot, I don't think Mattison should be fired. But I thought this was a pretty dismal effort for what is actually a solid defense. The players just didn't seem inspired to dominate, and the game plan was poor. The guy you must stop on Kansas State's offense is Tyler Lockett, and he abused Raymon Taylor time and time again (plus Blake Countess at least once). When he was singled up early in the game, I saw the formation and said "Slant." And there it was. When he was singled up later on the same drive, I saw the formation with Raymon Taylor lined up inside and said "Slant and out." Sure enough, Lockett beat Taylor by faking the slant and then beating Taylor with an out route. Lockett needed to be bracketed, and the corners needed safety help over the top. Elsewhere, guys like Cam Gordon were losing contain on the passing quarterback, as if they didn't know he could run a little bit. When I was watching film leading up to the bowl game, I saw Kansas State as a mediocre power running team with one good receiver, and they were still able to impose their will on Michigan.
Tyler Lockett is good. After seeing Lockett's highlights from the other twelve games and then watching him in this one, I think Lockett (10 catches, 116 yards, 3 touchdowns; 2 kickoff returns for 74 yards) could play for any team in the country. It was frustrating to watch him beat a fairly good duo of corners in Taylor and Countess, but you have to tip your cap to a player like that. Lockett's going to get his yards, but you can't let the other players beat you. Unfortunately, running back John Hubert (15 carries, 80 yards, 1 touchdown), quarterback Jake Waters (21/27 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air, plus 12 carries for 42 yards), and the defense beat Michigan, too.
Ryan Mueller is just a guy. I mentioned this before the game, but I was not impressed with what I saw from Mueller on film. The Big 12's Defensive Lineman of the Year had just 1 tackle against Michigan despite playing against the Wolverines' second-best offensive tackle and chasing a freshman quarterback.
The running back situation. Redshirt sophomore Justice Hayes earned the nod at running back and turned in a nondescript performance. He caught 3 passes for 22 yards and had 1 carry for -1 yard, the latter of which seemed to be him just tripping and falling to the turf of his own volition. I believe Michigan's game plan involved trying to get the edge against a team that the coaching staff felt was too stout up the middle for the interior offensive line to handle. Unfortunately, Michigan has mainly recruited inside runners during Hoke's tenure (Derrick Green, De'Veon Smith, Thomas Rawls). Without a good tailback option, Borges tried to hit Gallon on jet sweeps and reverses, Devin Funchess on a double reverse, etc. When your pocket passer of a quarterback leads the team in rushing, and your running backs combine for 8 carries and 13 yards, that's a terrible recipe for success. It didn't matter whether it was Hayes, Green, Smith, Rawls, or Toussaint running behind that line, though - there was just nowhere to go.
No hurry-up offense. Michigan didn't really go to a hurry-up offense until their final drive, which was extremely frustrating. Would it have made a difference in the final outcome? Probably not. But it seemed like Borges and head coach Brady Hoke had basically decided to give up and try to develop the kids for next year. Maybe they just didn't feel their freshman quarterback could handle running a two-minute drill for such an extended period, but at least give it a shot. Even if you chuck the ball deep and it gets intercepted, at least you tried. The only play where Michigan truly attempted to go over the top was on a pass to Jeremy Gallon where he got interfered with after it seemed like Morris and the receivers thought they had a free play when a Kansas State player jumped (he didn't cross the line of scrimmage). When your quarterback is known for his cannon arm, you would think at least three attempts downfield would be warranted.
Head(s) should roll. Hoke and athletic director David Brandon need to make some tough decisions this offseason, and at least one staff change needs to take place. Hoke is a loyal guy, but I think Brandon will insist because he's a business-oriented guy and needs to make donors happy. Running backs coach Fred Jackson isn't the problem, but he might retire whether he's asked to or not. Offensive line coach Darrell Funk would seem to be the easiest guy to axe, because his position group was the worst on the team. Offensive coordinator Al Borges does things like score 41 points against Ohio State and call plays that result in record-setting performances (Gallon's game against Indiana, Gallon's season receiving record, Gardner's statistics against Ohio State and Indiana, etc.), so he's a tougher choice. I also think a guy like wide receivers coach Jeff Hecklinski might be miffed if he gets passed up for a new offensive coordinator. Rumors are that secondary coach Curt Mallory has been looking for a head coaching job at a smaller school, too. There could be a lot of staff upheaval in the coming months.
Congratulations to Jeremy Gallon. Gallon surpassed former Michigan receiver Braylon Edwards for two records in this game. Gallon caught a pass in 39 consecutive games (Edwards was at 38), and he also set the single-season receiving yardage record with 1,373 yards (Edwards had 1,330 in 2004). He had 9 catches for 89 yards in this game, 1 carry for -5 yards, and a pass to Justice Hayes for a two-point conversion, hearkening back to his high school days as a single-wing quarterback at Apopka High School.
The two-point conversion was a final middle finger to the entire Michigan world. I don't think it's possible to convince me that wasn't in the playbook a month ago without invading Schembechler Hall.
ReplyDeleteI can't rag on Mattison too hard because of the adjustments. After getting Lockett-murdered in the first half, we came out and gave up three meaningful points in the most boring half of football ever. That's the Mattison factor...we saw it most notably at Northwestern in 2011 (0 second-half points after being unable to stop an option in the first half) and OSU 2012 (6 second-half points). At some point, the offense has to at least TRY to do something to kick-start the engine, freshman QB or no freshman QB. Never happened.
Good point about the second-half point production by K-State. But how much of that was truly defensive adjustments, and how much of it was Snyder backing off? My eye is not trained enough to tell.
DeleteWasn't Gallon a HS QB? Wasn't this his first career PA? It does seem like they could used that play earlier.
DeleteGood point about the defense stiffening a bit in the 2nd half. Getting no stops in the first half is pretty awful though.
Disagree about 'kick-start'ing the offense. They tried a lot of stuff but when you can't runblock at all there's not much playcalling can sustain.
Gallon would be gone anyway. It is not a middle finger to the Michigan world, it is just an attempt to make extra points.
DeleteLet's not forget that we tried a halfback pass in the 2012 ND game and it backfired, getting picked off. This play call is awesome if it works and gets ripped to shreds if it doesn't. If he'd called this against Ohio and it'd failed, yikes. Everyone would be upset that he didn't put the game in the hands of his QB who threw for 450 yards that day. Hindsight is 20/20.
DeleteAs for the defense stiffening in the second half, I don't know about that. KSU moved the ball on every possession but was less effective in the red zone for whatever reason. They only punted once, and even then they had driven into our territory.
Delete@Lank: You may be thinking of the immortal Terrance Robinson as the former H.S. QB. Gallon's pass was a huge surprise and a great--albeit wasted--play.
DeleteNo, Gallon was a high school QB, as was Robinson.
DeleteVery nice summary of what was, ultimately, a disappointing game.
ReplyDeleteI am trying to find the bottle of hope for next year. Yes, young players are one year older. But will they be one year *better*?
Re: coaching changes ... we'll see what changes (if any) take place. My sense is the fewer changes that take place the more Hoke is doubling-down on his bet about the 2014 season. I try not to be too pessimistic, but it seems to me anything resembling another year like 2013 is trouble for Hoke. 8-4 is the floor, and only if there's a quality win in there, preferably on the road. 9-3 provides some cushion. 10-2 puts the critics back in their cages.
I think what games you win are more important than the final record. If you finish strong and beat some rivals, fans will be OK with a lackluster overall record. The problem Rodriguez ran into was starting strong, finishing poorly, and losing to OSU/MSU. Did I say Rodriguez....
DeleteAnything equal to or worse than 7-6 in 2014 would make me get a pitchfork to drive Hoke and his chubby assistants out of town.
Delete@Lanknows ... agree, to a point. If Michigan beats MSU and OSU but loses to three or four others, then the pressure is manageable. But beating MSU and OSU but losing to 5 or 6 others would bring a lot of pressure ... mostly because the question would be: "You can beat our rivals but lose to teams we should crush?"
DeleteIf you put things in perspective, I don't see how you you keep Hoke after an 8-4 season, no matter who he beats. That would a one game improvement in 4 years, which could come by sheer luck as much as anything. Even 9-3 is pretty dodgy, unless we start off slow and come on really strong at the end of the year, kicking everyone's ass and winning at least the division, if not the conference. I think any less than 10-2 and a Legends division title and Hoke should be out. Virtually all of the roster will be players he himself signed next year, and with three top recruiting classes in a row, there's no excuse for not doing better than MSU and Nebraska.
DeleteI'd say 9-3 should be the bare minimum in 2014, or Hoke and his staff can go. All of our rival games are away games. Some growth pains are to be expected. I get it. But I can only tolerate 3 losses in 2014. No need to waste this much money on them, as they are just not very good.
Delete7-6 or 8-4? Wow, Michigan has fallen farther than I thought. How does a coach gets to keep his job if he posts (hypothetically) records of 8-5, 7-6, and 8-4? While playing in the 4th (or perhaps 5th) best conference in the country?
DeleteAn 8-4 record would mean, by default, that Michigan lost--again--the majority of its "red-letter" games and wasn't competitive for the B1G championship, let alone the national championship. That kind of performance will send fans and donors away in droves, which is the one thing Brandon won't be able to stand.
Realistically, it's nine wins as the bare minimum next year (and the losses can't be to ND, OSU and MSU). In year four, Hoke has "his guys" -- it's time for them (and the coaches) to step up. And if nine wins is too hard and/or unrealistic at Michigan when you have 5th-year senior starting QB, whoo boy.
Defensive performance was a bummer. They underachieved this year, IMO. Looked solid to strong early in the year but really fell off in the second half of the season and I'm really not sure why. My confidence in this unit being excellent next year took a huge blow this game.
ReplyDeleteOffensively - it's been the same story all year. People have tried to blame the running back, tried to blame the QB, tried to blame the receivers but it's the same problem all year -- the OL can't runblock to save it's life. Borges can bring some tricky stuff to mitigate it, but only for a while. It was fun to watch the first drive. The short-passes and screens was something many fans had been calling for all year, but you still have to be able to run the ball once the defense adjusts and this team simply can't do it.
Looking ahead to next year, there's not much reason to think the OL will be better. We can all hope that it will be, but it's wishful thinking. If it turns out that way, I think the TEs will have a lot to do with it because there will actually be LESS experience next year than this year on the OL and that's scary.
I think Borges will get the axe after next year, which will set up his replacement nicely once the '12 and '13 OL classes enter their veteran years. Like many others, I think Funk should probably be gone now. No OLmen has shown improvement under him and after 3 years that's pretty awful.
On the bright side - Morris did look solid for a freshman and showed nice arm strength and surprising speed as a runner. The OL also did a decent job in pass protection this game.
The story of this season is that Michigan wasn't a strong team in the trenches on both side of the ball. Many will blame Rodriguez for this, but Hoke's guys should be stepping up by now.
That's why heads should roll. As much as I like our linebackers I don't see why we need two LB coaches. Get some good coaches for the OL and DL instead, as our OL and DL are garbage in year three.
DeleteI agree with just about everything here. Funk has to go, and by tomorrow, if Hoke and Borges have any guts. They can't just close their eyes and assign no blame for the kind of offensive performance we had this year. "Youth" just doesn't explain it. But I think that if our offense is still bad enough next year that Borges would be under the axe, it won't matter, because we'll be something shitty like 8-4, and Hoke will be out on his ass anyway, taking everyone else with him.
DeleteI have read on other message boards with "insider information" (take that with grain of salt) that there will be no staff changes. To be honest, I don't think Funk is the problem from what I have read about him. Some part of me wants to keep staff intact for reasons of consistency and accountability. FWIW, my instinct is that Borges is like on of those brilliant college professors who may know a ton but cannot transmit information well with coherence. I also just a fan and know little myself
ReplyDeleteThat wouldn't surprise me, but that kind of complacency really reflects what's wrong with Michigan sports programs in general. They make coaching decisions based on loyalty, sentiment, and who is a Michigan man, not on performance. That we could have such an abyssmal performance on offense, not just in this game, but over and over and over, with no one losing their job over it, is just insane.
DeleteWhat have you read about him that makes you think Funk is not the problem? (honest question)
DeleteOn the coaching changes, I'd probably be okay with Mallory moving on. I feel like our corners have not really come along as much as we'd like in his three years. This was masked by good safety play in '11 and '12 but not this year.
ReplyDeleteWell, frankly, the same could be said about just about every position on the field since Hoke and company have been here. Where have we really seen top-notch player development? RB, Oline, QB, WR, LB, CB, S, Dline…pretty much all have been below expectations. LB has been a particular disappointment. It looked as if we'd have one of the better groups in the Big Ten this year, but Ross, Bolden and Morgan were all very average as playmakers, and RJS was a non-factor. Poor reads, mediocre tackling, and caught out of position regularly. None of those guys showed the slightest improvement from the beginning of the season to the end.
DeleteOline was obviously also a big disappointment, but at least you'd expect them to take longer to reach their peak.
"it seemed like Borges and head coach Brady Hoke had basically decided to give up and try to develop the kids for next year." Eccept for a few isolated games it seemed like they did that early in the season instead of just for the bowl game.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, I'm really gonna miss the kids from "The Muck" every one of them has been a man, a football player and tougher than Hell.
ReplyDeleteOn the issue of toughness, this team ain't. From our jowly Head coach, through our just plain fat OC, our Senior Tackles and all the rest of the way through the roster, this team is soft as pudding. I'm sitting here thinking on it, and with the exception of a Stribling bowling ball hit which was mildly blind side, I can't think of one signature hit for the entirety of this season. There probably is one or two, but they weren't impressive enough to make my RAM.
I also can't think of one instance where of one of our guys just flat took someone on face up and won big. This includes our two Senior and one thought to be All American Tackles.
If this is my team, I'm channeling Bo and The Mellow Men and I'm running this batch of girls until they puke, then tomorrow if they come back, they're gonna puke again.
When Spring rolls around, I'm taking every single allowed minute in pads and we're hitting. When Fall Camp starts, we're doing it again. And I don't give a rat's patootie who I lose to injury as they are all soft anyway.
I might even go all Bear Bryant at Texas A&M on their heads.
I understand young teams and never knowing what team is gonna show up and as everybody around here knows, I have defended this team on that basis all Fall, but ..... FOOTBALL IS A COLLISION SPORT. You gotta hit somebody, or there is no point having your useless ass out there on the field.
There is a five letter word for Team # whatever this team is and it starts with P.
I don't think our S&C staff should be getting a pass on criticism.—Don
ReplyDeleteHeads better roll. We are too easy on the coaches. Consecutive negative yardage... Makes me want to explode at the thought of it. Even horrible bottom feeder teams don't get negative yardage on the ground. This is something that should get people fired by halftime. If people aren't fired after this crap DB and Hoke are idiots.
ReplyDeleteThunder, will you write-up a post-mortem on the season? I've only been reading this blog since after Ohio. I'd love your take on what happened to this season after ND. It seems to me Hoke and Mattison didn't really trust the personnel since they employed a "bend but don't break" D
ReplyDeleteI've said all year long that our D was suspect and each and every game proved my point in spades. Once again when we need Mattison and the D to pitch a complete game they wiffed, big time. They made another avg Offense look like supermen, lost the time of possession battle and basically looked like swiss cheese out there. The K-State D consistently tackled while our D layed down like blocking dummys.
ReplyDeleteI repeat my condemnation of Mattison, the game has passed him by. Not once did he have them jamming a receiver at the line and he had the D playing tentative all game until the outcome had already been determined.
Time to clean house and start over again. Hoke did a great sales job on us but hasnt delivered. What a joke Michigan football has become.... 5 losses or more in 5 of the last 6 seasons now.
Good analysis overall, but I don't understand the RR comment -- it implies there was something unusual about yesterday's performance. Mattison & co in 2013 got bombed against Indiana, Penn State and OSU and gave up critical late drives against Neb (whose offense was horrendous) and Iowa, and barely hung on against Akron. I'm not impressed that they were able to shut down CMU, UConn and a 5-win Northwestern team.
ReplyDeleteThat's the most sobering part of this year -- everyone spent copious amounts of internet ink complaining (understandably) about Borges, but the defense and Mattison faded to blah before our eyes. I realize there is some youth, but there is no excuse for experienced, talent corners like Taylor and Countess to get lit up multiple times and the defense overall to make so few key stops.
I hope everyone can get it together next year and 2014 can be like 2006, where a 7-win season is followed by a national title contender (and 2006 had its flaws, but man were they tiny compared to what we have now), but the D's performance this year made me wonder even more than I would have otherwise.
In any case, thanks for the analysis all year. Here's to a better 2014.
Jehu Chesson III was our biggest hitter this year. Good for him, but damning for the rest of the team.
ReplyDelete