Name: Davis Warren
Height: 6’2″
Weight: 195 lbs.
High school: Suffield (CT) Suffield Academy
Position: Quarterback
Class: Redshirt junior
Jersey number: #16
Last year: I ranked Warren #70 and said he would be a backup quarterback (LINK). He completed 0/5 passes for 1 interception.
TTB Rating: N/A
Warren was a walk-on quarterback in the 2021 class - the same class as J.J. McCarthy - and he might be closer to the starting quarterback position than any other walk-on since Nick Sheridan in 2008. After overcoming a serious illness in high school, he was probably written off by many people. But his talent has always been there, and he looked decent in 2022. Unfortunately, an undisclosed injury seemed to sap him a little bit in 2023, and he did not perform well. Going 0-for-5 with 1 interception for the season is . . . well . . . there's really no way to gloss over it: it's about as bad as it gets.
But that 2023 performance was probably the pendulum swinging a little too far in the negative direction. Warren was back to looking pretty good in the 2024 spring game, throwing two touchdown passes - one a deep ball to Kendrick Bell and one a scrambling dart to Frederick Moore that Moore turned into a touchdown. Spring games aren't the same as fall Saturdays in the Big House - or the Horseshoe - but there's no getting past the fact that Warren has the physical talent to perform.
Word coming out of practices is that Warren is the best passer on the team. What he lacks is experience and playmaking ability with his feet. He's a decent athlete and more mobile than Cade McNamara, but he's not a runner. Michigan's offense will look much different with Warren behind center rather than Orji. All signs seem to be pointing toward Orji to be the starter in 2024, but if he falters or gets injured, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Warren getting a shot. Seventh year senior Jack Tuttle is also in the mix, but Tuttle has supposedly been dealing with an injury during camp - and he's often been injured in his career - so it seems like Warren has taken control of the #2 spot.
Prediction: Backup quarterback
Well I think I disagree on just about everything here. The ranking, the assessment, and the logic to get there.
ReplyDeleteI had to chuckle about "that's about as bad as it gets". I've seen it get far far worse, like QB crying on the table after losing to OSU in 2017.
The 0-5 performance in garbage time in 2023 is irrelevant and so are the 9 pass attempts in 2022. Big shrug on all of that. The more relevant bits for Warren in 2024 are that Warren wasn't seeing the field in either season because he was, at best, QB4. That's at age 20 and 21, not exactly a rosy cheeked freshman. Warren has been around campus a long time, longer than either Orji (who is 2 years older than) or Tuttle (who he is 2 years younger than). He's had PLENTY of chances to assert himself as JJ's heir, but....that never happened. And no reports that it was particularly close to happening either.
TBF to Warren, there's no shame in sitting on the bench behind JJ McCarthy but when it appears you're ALSO behind Jack Tuttle and Alex Orji and Cade McNamara whenever those other options are available -- well that doesn't seem so great for your prospects of being a starting QB at Michigan.
"Warren has the physical talent to perform" and "his talent has always been there". I'm curious about the basis for these statements. What is the evidence for this talent? With Orji -- we've seen his talent on the field. With Warren - not so much. If Warren's talent is so obvious, why was he not offered any notable scholarships out of high school (even Jayden Denegal and Kendrick Bell were more pursued)? Why has such a secret talent spent 3 years at Michigan hardly playing or even threatening to, or being recruited by other programs? If guys with physical talent are handed starting jobs at Michigan and Tennessee without merit and drafted into the NFL without merit (as has been asserted by some in this space) well then you have to wonder why Warren hasn't threatened anyone's position on the depth chart through his first 3 seasons.
"Michigan's offense will look much different with Warren behind center rather than Orji." Curious on the basis of this assertion also. Sam Webb seems to be saying the play calling would not be much different whoever the starter is (sorry, Rich Rod offense fans, Calvin Magee ain't walking through that door) and the players seem to be saying that passing performance is similar. Rumblings have been inconsistent to the point that I wonder if the competition isn't manufactured, for either Orji's benefit or the public's, or maybe Longhorn scouts.
It's clear there's a competition at QB though, manufactured or not. All the latest reports back up Thunder in ruling out Tuttle due to consistent injury concerns, at least to start the year, and Orji has not been named the starter yet. So Warren is the #2 at this time and Davis is not nipping at his heels just yet.
I'm at a point where I just simply have not seen enough from Warren, as a recruit, on the field, or in how the coaching staff values him on the depth chart through 3 seasons, to think that it would be anything other than a disaster if he is the starting QB. It would be an indictment of Alex Orji, Sherrone Moore, and the entire coaching staff if a 22 year old nobody walk-on was deemed the best option for Michigan.
But I've been wrong many times before on my guesses of how the season will play out. NOTHING can top the jaw-dropping shock of seeing freshman Chad Henne coming out and starting game 1 ahead of Guttierez and Richard in 2004. So if Warren Davis wants to go off on some sort of story book Kurt Warner trajectory or game-manage this offense to a big ten championship like Cade McNamara did, I'll gladly tip my cap and start eating crow.
DeleteUntil then, I still think Warren is probably back to being QB4 by the end of this season once Davis' red-shirt is ensured. Something between Malzone and O'Korn's talent level is all I can see at the moment. I'd rank him a lot lower than this on the countdown as a result, but I appreciate Thunder's different perspective here. This would be no fun if everyone just thought the same thing.
Lank, for as big of a Michigan fan as you are, the story of Davis Warren (not Warren Davis) should be at least somewhat familiar to you. A little thing called leukemia and another little thing called COVID interrupted his high school career.
Deletehttps://247sports.com/college/michigan/longformarticle/michigan-qb-davis-warren-cancer-story-walk-on-wolverines-football-192830102/
Man I just can NOT get "Warren Davis" out of my head. My bad. That said - I'm already aware of the leukemia situation. I'm not sure why you are asserting otherwise.
DeleteHe's an impressive young man to overcome that, and (as I said above) it would be a cinema worthy story book story if he thrived as a starter at Michigan. If it happens, I'll be rooting for him.
BUT -- None of that story changes the fact that he was never considered a top talent. Per Warren, the schools recruiting him were Ivy League caliber going through the end of his junior year when he was healthy.
"I had played at that point my junior year of high school football and was getting recruited by some schools — no schools like Michigan, but some smaller Power Five schools, a lot of Ivy League schools. I'm from Southern California, so kind of like a high school football Mecca, in a sense. "
By that point, most kids are well scouted and power 5 recruits are getting boatloads of offers. Not for all, but for most top players, senior years are formalities and many players are committed. If there is talent, people are going to find it - especially in SoCal and especially for a kid whose going to a high school that costs north $25K in tuition.
"Warren played three seasons as a backup at Loyola High in Los Angeles before transferring twice and eventually settling on Suffield."
He got to play only a little bit of his senior year but did get out there.
" I was able to play in the last game of the year, led a big two-minute drive at the end of the half to get us going. "
The lukemia is a unique situation, so he did an extra year in prep school, which explains why he is a year older than other seniors. But COVID affected everyone, not just Warren, and most guys are NOT getting that extra year of Prep School anyway. Bottom line - Warren lost his senior year due to health, but (according to the article) he still had a strong support and he was fully recovered by the time he arrived at Michigan.
"His trainers had connections to Coach Josh Gattis and Steve Casula and Grant Newsome at Michigan. They pressed Jim Harbaugh until the Michigan coach connected with Warren in the fall of 2020: Three of them, along with along with my coaches in Southern California, were definitely in Coach Harbaugh’s ear: ‘You gotta take a look at this kid.’ "
So he got the chance and at Michigan, he has been a deep bench guy through 3 seasons.
So where is the evidence of all this obvious untapped talent?
"Orji said of Warren: “I mean, you saw Davis’ deep ball today [a 42-yard TD to Kendrick Bell]. He’s the guru of all things QB mechanics and awesome to talk to.”"
Given all the support he's gotten and his dedication to football and being 22 years old, he should be. Sounds like a future coach to me.
It sounds like you maybe thought Warren had missed his junior and senior seasons but that was not the case Thunder.
DeleteSometimes you ask questions while pointing out the answer:
DeleteWarren was being recruited by "Ivy League" and "Smaller Power 5" schools. He said so himself in the article you quoted. He also has been around for a few years, so we have spring game and high school highlights to see. If you don't agree that he's talented...that's fine.
Obviously, other people see it. And if you're in "trust the coaches" mode, you know that he's been competing for the backup job for a couple years. You could even argue that a year ago, Michigan thought he was better than this year's presumed starter (Orji), since Warren was actually able to attempt passes.
This is going to put you in a bind, Lank, but if we get to the Alex Orji post and you don't question Orji's talent, you're not being clear-headed about it. The only talent Orji has displayed so far is his running ability. He's less accomplished and he's been less trusted than Warren when it comes to passing the ball. The depth chart and the stats bear this out.
@ Lank 11:12 a.m.
DeleteI implied no such thing. I've looked at his story a few times. But he went from 185 to 150 pounds. He had to deal with COVID. He dealt with leukemia. Etc.
You asked why he wasn't better known in the scouting process. There are several pretty glaring reasons: leukemia, lost weight, less preparation time, COVID messing with camps/evaluations, etc. If leukemia doesn't count as a mitigating factor, then there's really nothing else I can tell you that's going to change your mind.
Warren is talented - anyone playing QB at Michigan is talented. Nick Sheridan is talented. Alex Malzone is talented. Dan Villari is talented. This is Michigan. Getting recruited by Ivy Leagues does not mean you're a "talent" by Michigan standards.
Delete----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regarding Orji comparisons. Orji is more talented.
DeleteWarren has been "competing for a backup job" for 3 years but he never won a backup job. Orji was put on the field to play quarterback against Alabama.
You can play the passer vs runner distinction game all you want, but Orji is a quarterback that Michigan coaches put on the field with a national title on the line, at quarterback. That speaks to his talent, as a quarterback.
If you want to quibble on that front, well then you can look at the recruiting rankings to compare the high school offer lists for Orji (Michigan, VaTech, Oklahoma, etc.) and Warren (Ivy Leagues) through their junior seasons to compare. It's Orji by a landslide.
Orji has more talent than Warren and is more accomplished than Warren and is 2 years younger than Warren.
I have plenty of questions about Orji's ability as because I haven't seen him throw much in games but I would have those same exact questions if he had 8 more attempts or whatever in garbage time. Those aren't needle movers to me. I trust the coaches who gave him the opportunity to throw against Alabama. I trust the coaches who started him at QB in the highest level of Texas football.
I have fewer questions with Orji than I would have if he was a 22 year old who never started in high school and had only 14 career attempts in garbage time at the college level.
Lank, you have stated your opinion over and over than Warren has no chance of even being the backup QB on this team. Many of us disagree, admittedly based on a small sample size. But it seems to be trending that Warren will in fact be the backup QB and is likely to get some meaningful snaps this year. I personally think he is at least talented enough to let Michigan beat that teams that they should (i.e. unranked teams) and potentially give them a chance in the other games. Let's hope that Orgi is outstanding and stays healthy so we don't have to find out.
DeleteSo are we to "trust the coaches" who didn't try to bring in any transfers over the off-season because they believed in Orji/Warren/Tuttle?
DeleteAre we to "trust the coaches" who seem to have Warren as the #2 QB ahead of Jadyn Davis, Jayden Denegal, etc.?
Are we to "trust the coaches" who let Warren throw the ball but didn't let Orji throw the ball?
Or is this just one of those random situations where we throw the coaches' thoughts/actions out because we disagree with their conclusion?
I never know when to trust these damn coaches...
@Kurt
DeleteWarren appears to be the QB2 going to the season. So I don't think he has no chance of doing that. I just think it is temporary.
I think he might be able to do a reasonable Cade McNamara impression if handed the reigns, but that says more about what I think of McNamara and his talent level than Warren.
I hope we don't find out. In Orji we trust. Or at least hope.
@Thunder
DeleteAbsolutely. Trust the coaches on playing time decisions. They are meaningful.
I trust the coaches the coaches if they name Warren the #2. They haven't done that yet. If they do (and I expect they will) I trust that they are making the right call for right now. If Tuttle gets healthy (I assume he will), I think that might change. If Davis gets up to speed (I assume he will), I think that might change.
I trusted the coaches in 2021 when they put McNamara ahead of McCarthy. I still think they made the right call there. Doesn't mean I thought McNamara would be the starter at Michigan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 as well. I trust the coaches to make the right call at the right time. And they did.
I'm making guesses about how the season plays out. I could be wrong. What I'm not wrong about is the timeline of Warren's high school career and that the lack of offers does not indicate an under the radar talent whose stock was spoiled simply because he missed his senior year and prep year. The explanation fails the sniff test.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
The coaches let Orji throw the ball in 2022 and in 2023. He chose not to throw it against Alabama -- which showed maturity and restraint IMO. Mistake avoidance is a critical skill for the MIchigan QB job.
Trust the coaches for sure. Orji played the majority of his snaps against OSU, Iowa, Alabama, and Washington, in high leverage situation. Orji was trusted to play QB, for Michigan, with a national title on the line. This is a fact. Trust the coaches.
Warren was "trusted" to play snaps against ECU, UNLV, and (after Tuttle and Denegal were "trusted to throw") on the final series of a 45-7 game. The same coaches trusted Andy Maddox and the freshman version of Alex Orji to throw in meaningless situations in 2022. Trust the coaches -- those guys weren't ready for critical snaps and weren't competing for a starting job.
I agree with the coaches. I trust the coaches.
"So are we to "trust the coaches" who didn't try to bring in any transfers over the off-season because they believed in Orji/Warren/Tuttle?"
DeleteYes, probably but this one is easier. As explained a thousand times, the context of my "trust the coaches" statement is in regard to playing time decisions and the depth chart hierarchy. It's not a blanket statement that covers everything.
The context of this particular offseason makes it possible that the coaches did not make the right call about the QB and the portal. Specifically -- Harbaugh left after most of the portal cycle was done at QB, Moore was brought on and had to build a staff up. It was not a "normal" situation. The Portal was underutilized, IMO.
So I would hold off on assuming that the coaches did the optimal thing with QB position in Portal. But generally speaking, I trust the coaches enough to think QB might be alright in Orji's hands, given that they didn't panic in the offseason or prioritize QB the way they did safety after Rod Moore was hurt, QJohnson declared, and Sabb transferred. QB wasn't as dire, clearly.
That's nuance. Sorry not sorry. I've been critical of Harbaugh several times on here as well with how he treats medical issues (e.g., Pipkins, St Juste, the kid that ended up playing OT at Oklahoma, etc.). I'm critical of Denard for getting a DUI. I'm critical of Harbaugh for hiring Schemy. I'm critical of Harbaugh for keeping in the starters too long sometimes.
I'm NOT critical of their decisions on playing time, who starts over who else, or how they decide to use the depth chart because they are at practice every day, talking to each other and their players, and they want to win more than any fan does and they know more than any fan does.
Trust the coaches.
Lack of consistency = lack of principle ... it's a road to dishonesty
DeleteTrust the coaches on playing time, but question them regarding leaving starters in ... that's playing time Lank
Medical issues? How is that any different than your take on playing time? "because they are at practice every day, talking to each other and their players ... " And their team Doctors Lank; the coaches are also talking to the team Doctors
GTFO already
Medicine is different than football coaching. Hot take alert!
DeleteLOL. I don't know Jelly is there any reason why someone might doubt the UM athletic department medical staff? Let's check on the Anderson lawsuits.
DeleteShould players ignore their Doctors? There's plenty of smoke around situations like All, McNamara, Pipkins, St.Juste not having a clear consensus. I'm not a doctor and neither are the coaches. I trust football coaches to coach football and doctors to do medicine. I don't trust doctors or Al Bundy 2024 edition to evaluate depth charts.
WAIT ... did you just reference a decades old incident to not trust Doctors? Wtf man, didn't peg you as one of those antiscience types
DeleteWhere do the coaches get their information from numbnuts? THE DOCTORS ... it's so obvious you never played the game. When coaches go against the doctors it's typically to keep a guy playing - not to lose talent. Learn the game Lank!
Ha! The victim card
DeleteWhite flag accepted
#trustthedoctors
Desperate. So thirsty. But just tasting sand.
DeleteLook up how much money Ben St Juste would have not made in the NFL he medically retired. Talking about M's.
DeleteDesperate!
Uh oh facts got in the way. Time to wave the white flag.
DeleteLOL just kidding it's time to fantasize about winning in jeLLLyLand
You playing the victim card ... classic Lank
DeleteWhat "facts" got in the way?
You haven't answered the question, only dodged: should the coaches weigh doctor's recommendations against some financial advisor's projections? Yes or No Lank
Victim? I think it's amusing you keep fantasizing about me.
DeleteLook up how much money Ben St Juste would have not made in the NFL. Let me know when you found it and put it together. I won't hold my breath.
Facts vs fantasies. Hold it up.
That he was actually trusted to pass - despite looking lost out there - says a lot about the QB room, in terms of our potential passing game
ReplyDeleteJayden Denegal was also trusted to pass 5 times and he's not even in the conversation. It can be easy to read too much into limited garbage time snaps. I would not hold "looking lost out there" against Warren even though he was a junior. Alan Bowman didn't look so hot in his limited reps in 2021 either -- and he's proven to be a capable starter (not only since joining OK State but before at Texas Tech).
DeleteI'll just proactively state here for anyone with a black and white mindstate that I'm not saying this as an endorsement of Warren. There are plenty of reasons to doubt him but I don't think going 0-5 in 2023 is a very good reason.
This would be sound logic if applied consistently and with some context. Warren has been on the roster and not played much, but he's been behind a B1G Championship QB and a stud who won a National Title ... he still went in, and was trusted to pass
DeleteContrast this the conversation we had pre- spring concerning Orji. That he has been there through 29 Games in two seasons (including garbage time) and thrown one pass is telling. We saw a lot of sloppy footwork in spring, resulting in inconsistent accuracy. While we've heard he busted his butt all off season and improved, that "could" be chalked up as manufactured hype pointed out in the Klein post. Let's hope not
*Orji was a Wildcat last year. A QB throws the ball ... in the case of Bama, people who know the game understand that the ball should have been thrown away, avoiding the
Andy Maddox was trusted to pass in the same context. So was Denegal. So was Alex Orji... in 2022. You're drawing big conclusions based on garbage time snaps, when Warren was "trusted" to be the 4th QB in the last drive of the game against Nebraska. In other words, that's not exactly a lot of trust.
DeleteBut if they did trust him at that point, perhaps they lost that trust after he threw an INT. He was never trusted to see the field against after Nebraska.
Spring game is a great thing to bring up. Orji was trusted to throw twice as many passes in the spring game and completed more than twice as many passes as Warren. Does "trust" not hold there?
It shouldn't LOL. It's a spring game. A practice. Low stakes. Not Alabama. Where the coaches trusted Orji to throw.
There's no conclusion Lank. QB is one big question mark
DeleteOf course it is. You're over here asserting the coaches trust one guy and not the other. Somehow NOT the one that was playing against OSU, Alabama, and Washington but the one playing against ECU. Listen to yourself.
Delete"he's been behind a B1G Championship QB and a stud who won a National Title"
You may have forgotten this applies to Orji just as it does Warren. But Warren also sat behind McNamara.
"29 Games in two seasons (including garbage time) and thrown one pass is telling."
43 games in 3 seasons and throwing 14 passes (all in garbage time) is more telling
Meanwhile
Who said the coaches don't trust their players? ALL THE FACTS liar, not just the narrative you want to debate. The coaches did not let Orji pass all season, despite plenty of garbage time. The trust was lined to his strength, running the ball
DeleteHe was our wildcat. Learn the game Lank
I see you're struggling to follow along again. Oh well.
DeleteOrji was trusted to play meaningful snaps at quarterback and to throw against Alabama. Warren was not. These are facts. You don't like them so you call them lies.
"Warren has been on the roster and not played much, but he's been behind a B1G Championship QB and a stud who won a National Title ... he still went in, and was trusted to pass"
Now replace Warren for Orji. Is the statement still true? Yes, yes it is.
Hold it up high.
Replace Davis with Orji? Okay ... but Davis was trusted to pass. Orji was NOT. That's the fact you're dodging ... or lying against
DeleteOrji was trusted to pass against Alabama. Warren vs cupcakes in garage time. Orji is a QB. The truth hurts. Trust the coaches!
DeleteNot the best example here. It was a trick play. Roll out, and if it's there, take off. If the pass is open, pull the trigger
DeleteBama wasn't fooled by a trick play where the "QB" actually throws, so we took a sack
He was trusted to pass against Alabama. Trick play or not that's something, and directly contradicts the lie that he was not trusted by the coaches to pass.
DeleteHe was also trusted to pass in garbage time of non-conference in 2022, like Warren.
If you're going to read into things and try to make projections of the future based on small samples of what has happened in the past, it's usually not a good idea to take the garbage time stuff that seriously. Davis Warren going 0-5 with 1 INT -- don't take it seriously. Davis Warren going 7-9 with 1 TD -- don't take it seriously. If these things were happening in competitive situations -- OK, take them a little more seriously. Garbage time is garbage time. It's tangential, small sample size, and it doesn't really matter.
Orji was playing real meaningful QB snaps in Michigan's rush package. Could Donovan Edwards or Semaj Morgan taken those snaps instead -- perhaps! But the QBs who have that role typically become starters (e.g., Milton, McCarthy) although McCaffrey did not.
It's far more meaningful that Warren and Orji both played in the Spring Game and neither looked like they were the next coming of JJ McCarthy or Chad Henne or Denard Robinson (the 3 best QBs at Michigan IMO, since Tom Brady).
Desperate is not trusting program Doctors because decades ago one was a pig ... but go ahead, pretend
DeleteI'll just sit here and be right
*Anon, that's called a "gimmick" Lank knows, but needs disagreement in his life ... Donovan Edwards threw a pass in The Game. He's no QB, but was entrusted with a pass that did not include a run option
**how does one differentiate between gimmick and philosophy? The former comes out on the rarest of occasions ... once in a 15game season qualifies
Those of us who know the game understand. Lank does not know the game
Look up Ben St Juste's career earnings in the NFL Jelly.
DeleteYou're not built for this.
WtF does his career earnings have to do with trusting the doctors?
DeleteQuit dodging: should the coaches trust the doctors or not? Maybe weigh doctor's advice against a financial planner's projections?
You're awful at this
*I'm built like a Greek statue; peak masculinity. Regularly outsmart you; just superior in every way
The Michigan coaches (presumably on the direction of Michigan doctors, who you view as interlinked) told St Juste to medically retire from football.
DeleteSt Juste didn't trust the coaches. He didn't trust THOSE doctors. He trusted other doctors.
St Juste has earned over $3M by disregarding them and will earn over $3M more this year. Over $6M and counting because St Juste decided not to #trust the coaches# on their medical judgements.
Medical decisions are different than playing time decisions. This isn't complicated, but you've wrapped yourself up into equating two different things.
Hold it up high for everyone to see.
DeleteYou're still not answering the question Mr Dodge: should the coaches trust the Doctors or some financial projection?
DeleteDon't be scared Lank, you should be used to being outsmarted here
Didn't realize you got inside intel to know what the doctors say to the coaches. Or are you just fantasizing again?
Delete"WtF does his career earnings have to do with trusting the doctors?"
Figure it out yet?
What's a bit surprising to me is that he's figured as the backup quarterback *and* he's ranked as low as #29. I guess if all the starters -- including specialists like K, P, and LS -- ahead of any backup, you quickly get to a number near 29. But still, given how easy it is to lose a QB to injury, a backup QB would seem to me a bit more valuable.
ReplyDeleteWith Jack Tuttle on the roster, it's hard for me to argue that Warren should be any higher. Tuttle is a seventh year senior with starting experience. Some people thought he would beat out Orji or at least be the #2. How big would the drop-off be if Warren were to get hurt and Tuttle had to step in?
DeleteI could see a case for all 3 in the top 50. I have Davis ahead of Warren by seasons end so I included him in my top 50. I also have Tuttle in the top 50 because I'm not assuming he will stay hurt all year and I think he's probably getting under-discussed because he has missed spring and a big chunk of fall camp.
DeleteBut the most conventional take here is to assume Orji will be the starter, Warren is the backup (for now), and Tuttle or Davis may pass Warren as the season goes depending on health (in Tuttle's case) or development (in Davis'). It's not like Warren is an proven performer waiting in the wings.
While my rankings would be very different than Thunder's and I have a different read of the QB room, I think the perspective is reasonable.
Guess I will be more positive than most- DW is better than McNamara and we went 11-2 with Cade.
DeleteI will buy Warren can do better than McNamara before I will buy that Warren is more talented than Orji. Hope you are right Anon.
Delete@ Lank 11:11 a.m.
DeleteI think if Michigan has to use a 6'1", 200 lb. true freshman quarterback who can't run particularly well, things are going to go south pretty quickly. Jadyn Davis isn't that important to this year's team, IMO. The team will probably sink against decent competition if he's needed at QB.
I agree with you Thunder. If Orji fails, none of the options are pretty.
Delete1. A 24 year old backup transfer from Indiana who keeps getting hurt
2. A 22 year old senior walk-on who hasn't seen a meaningful down
3. A 19 year old true freshman
Davis seems to have leadership traits and demonstrated good accuracy in high school so once he's up to speed he might be the best of a set of bad options. He probably isn't yet - it took a minute even with McCarthy.
I don't know why you discount someone who is who is 6'1 and 205 pound and hype up someone who is 6'2 and 195 pound. Care to elaborate? Davis was a near 5 star who produced a boatload in high school but you keep bringing up size as a limitation. Warren is roughly the same size and you keep alluding to his (unproven) talent without mentioning size as a limiting factor. Neither appears to be much of a run threat.
The difference I see is that one guy is 22 and has 3 years in the program and the other is 19 and arrived in January. The longer the freshman is in the program the more that gap narrows.
If you are into recruiting rankings, Davis is the most talented option. But obviously he's also the least experienced.
@ Lank 5:21 p.m.
DeleteJadyn Davis was a 4-star who wasn't anywhere close to being a 5-star. He was ranked #112 overall in the 247 Composite and #105 in the On3 industry ranking. That's about 80 spots away from being a 5-star.
I'm not hyping up Davis Warren. He's ranked #29 and is the backup QB (presumably). Someone else on here said they think I ranked him too low. By all accounts, he's ahead of everyone except Orji.
I've said before that I wanted Michigan to go after someone in the transfer portal. I don't think Orji is the answer. Nor do I believe in Tuttle or Warren as elite players. But this is who Michigan has on its roster.
And Davis
DeleteSo Moore says Orji & Warren are splitting 5o-5o, and no starter has been picked. It's Game Week ... it's this a good thing or bad thing?
ReplyDeleteI think it's not a great thing. We saw in the spring that Orji does not look polished as a passer. Everyone knows that's problematic. Not in the sense that 3-9 is inescapable, but that there's a cap on what the offense can do. I do think the QB will be Orji because he can run, but there's also a world where he struggles to throw the ball and needs to be replaced.
DeleteI thought Warren threw a pretty ball in spring, and was okay last year's edition. But when the lights came on, I just got Russell Bellamy vibes. It's just a big difference that I am hesitant about in a tough road environment
DeleteI think Orji is such a strong runner, we just need his decision making to make a leap and some cleanup on the pass. Don't take the 4yd sack when you can throw it away. Don't err on the side of pulling (and taking extra hits) when you have a stable of Backs. He doesn't have to be elite, just not bad when it comes to passing. And that starts with decision making ... the competition limited 1st team snaps, and I worry that could be costly in his development with our early season schedule
I agree with your QB assessment here Thunder. I just also don't think anybody else looks like a polished passer either. Starting a walk-on or a guy who lost his starting job to Connor Bazelak is also problematic. Our best hopes lie with Orji it seems and he is too unproven to be confident in yet. We can only hope.
DeleteI think who ends up at QB will also depends on how well the OL turns up. There is a world where the OL can protect the QB and gives him plenty of time to throw. In this case, there is a case of starting Warren. He is after all the most accurate of the three (players and coaches have said so in interviews).
DeleteI agree the OT is critical to team success but....Orji is going to need pass pro just like Warren. I don't see the run pass mix being that affected that much by the QB decision. If Orji is there he is probably stealing carries from the RBs. Furthermore, accuracy is affected by pressure so if accuracy is wobbly, avoiding pressure becomes more important.
DeletePlus, although it's one play, Orji did show reluctance to throw the ball away (when he should have) against Alabama -- which also increases importance of protection.
Here's some possible explanation for why a "talent" like Warren might not have played much his sophomore year -- he was on a loaded squad that pushed him to JV.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.latimes.com/sports/highschool/story/2020-08-11/loyola-high-los-angeles-six-talented-quarterbacks-2017
I don't know what happened his junior year in 2018. That's the critical part of the story to determine why Warren might have been under the radar as a recruit.
That would have been the point where college recruiters evaluated him and before he got leukemia in 2019 leading up to his senior year.
It does not seem like he earned the starting job but Miller Moss was gone and the team went 1-9. So maybe he sat behind another elite QB prospect again, but I can't find any evidence that's what happened.
Well there's a whole lot of smoke that Davis "Warren Davis" Warren is going to be your starter.
ReplyDeleteI am not optimistic about what this means for the 2024 season, but let's all hope my assessment of his untapped talent is as wrong as my speculation of his position on the depth chart.
It's a great story and I hope he thrives. Let's do that 2021 season thing again!
Agree, but if true it's probably as much about Orji as a passer than all of a sudden Warren is a playoff QB. The hype around Orji always seemed a bit unrealistic, especially given how recent the spring game was
DeleteI admit to hoping based off that hype. If he can't meet the low expectation of "hover around 6o% & 3:2 TD:INT ratio" it forces Warren into the starting job, keeping Orji as a gimmick
Is that you Jelly? Have you been hacked again? Well, since whoever is posting this is here to talk about football I'll reciprocate.
DeleteI agree. This appears to me to be first and foremost about Orji not being ready to run the entire offense. I trust the coaches and the coaches are not sure, at best, and downright don't believe at worst, in Orji to be that guy right now.
We know Orji's that guy in the run game. We have strong confidence he is that guy in the locker room. So it's clear he is NOT that guy with his ability to execute the passing game. That's a bummer, to me at least.
The hype for Orji was always about hope but the hype for Warren or Tuttle was also about hope.
I wish I had the confidence in Warren that others had but I just don't see the same arc some people are seeing here. This guy has sat the bench the last 5 years. I admire patience but that's a long time for a guy to wait who has options.
For now, it feels like Warren got this job because Orji didn't have it. But preseason speculation is worth only so much (not much) so we'll just have to wait and see how Warren and Orji play. They'll both get a shot.
I hope Warren wins the dang heisman, it would be quite the tale.
Just say it ... "you were probably right about Orji JE. You're right a lot in fact"
DeleteI'd say it if it was true but only you believe your lies.
DeleteJust today YOU gave up on Orji while I see a role for him
Deletefantasizing 4eva. Nobody buys it.
DeleteFantasy? The guy using nicknames gets booty tickled when it comes back at him ... that's a victim mentality. Soft
DeleteYou're still dodging. Should Harbaugh & staff followed medical advice for a health issue, or consulted with a financial advisor on projected earnings?
YOU CAN DO THIS, just set aside the narrative!
#n0tbUilTf0rtHiS