RUSH OFFENSE vs. FRESNO STATE RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan finished #55 in rushing yards (169.1 yards/game) and #52 in yards per carry (4.5) in 2023. Those aren't the world's most impressive numbers, but the consistency with which Michigan pulled off its run game was. Whether it was a good opponent or a bad one, Michigan was willing and able to run the ball. The guy on the cover of NCAA '25 is senior RB Donovan Edwards (119 carries, 497 yards, 5 TD last season), who had 41- and 46-yard touchdowns in the national championship game. He struggled for much of last year and was near the bottom of the Big Ten in yards per carry until the game against Washington. The backup is former LB Kalel Mullings, a 6'2", 233-pounder who ran 36 times for 222 yards and 1 touchdown last year. Up front the Wolverines lost their top six linemen to the NFL (four got drafted, two got signed as UDFAs); the assured starters are OG Giovanni El-Hadi, OT Myles Hinton, who transferred from Stanford prior to 2023, and OG Josh Priebe, who transferred from Northwestern this year. For Fresno State, one of the better players is fifth year senior DE Devo Bridges (6'2", 255), who had 30 tackles, 8 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks last year. The other bookend is former 5-star USC DE Korey Foreman (6'4", 245), who has 24 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, and 1 interception over three years in college. Both starting defensive tackles are sub-300 pounders. The leading returning tackler is weakside linebacker Malachi Langley (6'1", 236), who made 84 tackles and 5 tackles for loss a season ago. The Bulldogs finished #97 in rush defense (166.2 yards allowed/game) and #81 in yards allowed per carry (4.33) last season.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. FRESNO STATE PASS DEFENSE
The passing offense is a giant unknown for Michigan. QB J.J. McCarthy was taken by the Vikings in the first round (though he's out for the season with a meniscus injury), and Michigan also lost its top two wideouts in Roman Wilson (Pittsburgh Steelers) and Cornelius Johnson (cut by the Los Angeles Chargers). While no starter has been announced, everyone assumes it will be QB Alex Orji getting the nod. Orji has attempted just 1 pass in two years on campus and at 6'3" and 235 pounds is known more as a runner than a thrower. The star of Michigan's passing game will be TE Colston Loveland (45 catches, 649 yards, 4 TD in 2023). Junior WR Tyler Morris (13 catches, 197 yards, 1 TD) has been getting talked about like Michigan's #1 wide receiver for 2024, and Semaj Morgan (22 catches, 204 yards, 2 TD) will also be a frequent target. The entire starting line will be new, so how they gel as a pass protection unit will be a key aspect of this year's passing game. Senior CB Cam Lockridge (6'0", 182) is Fresno's top corner and had 12 tackles, 1 interception, and 1 pass breakup last year, but his PFF grade of 59.0 last year (in four games) doesn't instill a ton of confidence. The opposite corner, redshirt junior Al'Zillion Hamilton (5'11", 186), scored 55.8 for the year on PFF. Fifth year senior Dean Clark (6'1", 206) is one to watch after making 3 interceptions in 2023. Junior DT Jacob Holmes (6'3", 297) led the team with 5 sacks last season but had a 43.9 pass rush grade. Overall, the Bulldogs were #16 in passer rating defense after making 17 interceptions and allowing just 19 passing touchdowns, but a lot of that defensive production left at the end of the year.
Advantage: Michigan
RUSH DEFENSE vs. FRESNO STATE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan was #6 in rush defense last year (90 yards allowed/game) and #7 in yards allowed per carry (3.0). That shouldn't change a ton in 2024 because star defensive tackles Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham return. And while both of Michigan's leading tacklers, Michael Barrett and Junior Colson, got drafted into the NFL, they're being replaced by the #3 tackler (Ernest Hausmann) and perhaps Maryland's best player in junior Jaishawn Barham. Additionally, DE Derrick Moore and OLB Josaiah Stewart basically split reps with the starters last year, so they should step in adequately. There are question marks with the backups on the defensive line, so that might be something to watch. Fresno State was #118 in rush offense (105.5 yards/game) and #102 in yards per carry (3.75) last season, but that's largely because redshirt sophomore QB Mikey Keene (5'11", 198) took some huge sacks and is not a run threat. The running backs were actually quite productive and should be again in fifth year senior Malik Sherrod (5'8", 177), who ran for 966 yards on 5.6 yards/carry, and fifth year senior Elijah Gilliam (5'10", 210), who ran for 397 yards on 4.2 yards/carry. They combined for 14 rushing scores, with 9 coming from Sherrod. Senior RT Braylen Nelson (6'6", 320) was the team's highest graded run blocker (70.2), and the solid Mose Vavao (6'3", 317) will move from offensive guard to start at center this fall. It's a veteran group, but they're undersized compared to Michigan and will start a 6'3" left tackle and a 6'1" left guard. Seeing what Michigan did to Washington's Joe Moore Award-winning offensive line last year tells me that Grant and Graham are going to feast up front.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. FRESNO STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan was #2 in pass defense (157 yards allowed/game), #3 in passer rating defense, and #5 in yards allowed per attempt (5.5) during the 2023 season. Only two of Michigan's five starting defensive backs return, but one is All-American CB Will Johnson and another is a captain in fifth year senior Makari Paige. The other replacements are sixth year senior Quinten Johnson at safety, former 4-star recruit Zeke Berry at nickel, and former 4-star CB Jyaire Hill. Michigan also brought in two former starting safeties (Wesley Walker from Tennessee and Jaden Mangham from Michigan State) and an FCS All-American cornerback in Aamir Hall from Albany. The pass rush is a little more of a question mark on paper, but OLB Josaiah Stewart and Moore should be up to the task after finishing #2 and #3 on the team in sacks last year. For the Bulldogs, their big loss is head coach and QB guru Jeff Tedford, who had to resign this summer due to medical issues. He tutored multiple first round NFL draft picks, and even though Mikey Keene isn't heading for the first round, Tedford is well respected as a coach. The Bulldogs were #21 in passing offense (282 yards/game) and #62 in passer rating last season, with Keene completing 67.1% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt. Overall, he threw for 2,976 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The Bulldogs lost their #1 and #3 receivers, so their top returner is redshirt sophomore Jalen Moss (6'1", 175), who caught 55 passes for 706 yards and 5 touchdowns a year ago. Leading tight end Tre Watson transferred to Washington, so up steps senior Jake Boust (6'4", 245), who made 4 catches for 30 yards and 1 score last year. Junior receiver Josiah Freeman was not on Fresno's depth chart but is a 6'3" kid who could be a deep threat. Otherwise, look out for junior Chedon James (5'9", 173), who was #1 in receptions (102) and #4 in receiving yards (1,045) for FCS at Idaho State last year.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- No Fresno State players were recruited by Michigan out of high school
- Fresno State associate head coach/special teams coordinator John Baxter held the same position at Michigan in 2015, Jim Harbaugh's first season in Ann Arbor
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- Fresno State and Michigan have never played before
- The last Mountain West team Michigan played was UNLV in 2023, which Michigan won by a score of 35-7
PREDICTION
- Michigan 34, Fresno State 10
No mention of Davis Warren?
ReplyDelete38-17 good guys
Some stuff to work out, but mostly satisfying
28 - 10 ... and probably something like 14-3 at the half.
ReplyDeleteBoth Orji and Warren will play in the first half. The second half may tilt more toward one or the other based on a lot of things, their first-half play being one factor. Both Orji and Warren will throw the ball a bit. We'll probably see the coaches "trust" Warren a bit more, but Orji will be given his opportunities to establish his passing game.
The rushing game will be good, but not fireworks-spectacular.
Blitz, Michigan BLITZ!
ReplyDeleteUM 38
DaDogs (not those dogs) 3.
This year's offense, statistically, will be better this year.
26-13. Offense struggles early
ReplyDeleteGame 1 result was about at what was expected, once the news dropped that Warren, Giudice, and Link are starters.
DeleteIt's very possible MICHIGAN will want to get the dub, then pack up for Texas
ReplyDeleteBut I think it's just as likely Campbell and Moore want the boys firing on all cylinders, and just assert themselves all over the bulldogs ... it can be done without revealing much
Also, GO ZIPS!!!
ReplyDeleteOL stinks. Benching Guidice was a good call; his play demonstrates the difference between practice & games
ReplyDeleteSeems all we have on O is Loveland & Mullings. Lots to work on. Hope we hang on in 2nd Half
D is elite, but will need help
ReplyDeleteOL had a really bad start. Wore down a much smaller, inferior opponent
No WRs ... lots to work on
The Don needs space or creativity, still.
He had neither tonight
Loveland & Mullings were beasts
WtF was that throw from Orji? The bar is very low, and he missed it ... some good runs though. GADGET
Not sold on Warren. Didn't seem to come off his first read, which was usually short stuff. Not sure if/how much a RSJr improves over the course of a season. With Orji limited to a gadget role, we're about to find out
I don't know how much Warren needs to "improve" in the traditional sense of the word. I mean, I don't think he's great, and I don't think he ever will be. But I do think that nerves have something to do with it. Maybe one week will be enough to get over the butterflies. Maybe not (probably not). Maybe he never will.
DeleteI do know Jake Rudock struggled against Utah in the season opener as a fifth year senior, and he was pretty darn good by the second half of the year. There are different circumstances here (Rudock was a transfer who arrived in the summer; Warren has been at Michigan for four years), but a poor first game doesn't necessarily spell disaster for the rest of the year.
I think Warren made a lot of good decisions and kept the ball out of harm's way most of the night. If the timing with the WRs improves with more reps, they could do some decent things.
Yeah, rudock would be a good comparison. He didn't get help from WRs in Game 1 either
DeleteI actually have stronger feelings against Warren, but it's game night and I am sure a second watch will temper the fanatical emotions that come with a lackluster game
Fresno State’s defense was ranked in the 80s by Bill Connelly of ESPN. And we struggle to score against them. Our OL play is average at best. The fact that the coaches started Guidice was troubling to say the least.
ReplyDeleteGiven what we saw in this game, I still do not understand why our coaches did not pursue a transfer portal QB. Yes we had the JJ and Harbaugh uncertainty and we also won the Natty, but it is Sherrone Moore’s job (he is going to be the OC or HC) to ensure that the cupboard is not bare at the most important position. We couldnt outbid for Grayson McCall? Kyle McCord? Orji the supposed anointed saviour at QB was not even given a drive to see what he can do? The decision not to pursue a portal QB seems baffling to say the least.
Agreed. Michigan should have pursued a portal QB. I think this was obvious back in the winter. I just resigned myself to the idea that Michigan would have pretty poor QB play in 2024.
DeleteFT there's many more names than that. We should have had non-coaches reaching out to QBs stuck in a competition or buried ... call it tampering, but this is happening across the nation and we should have squeezed a guy into the portal. Maybe there no Zvada-like QB out there, but certainly more than a Gadget v a Walk-on
DeleteEveryone active in this space thought the coaches should hit the portal in the offseason. The hopes for Orji were escalated somewhat by the coaches choosing not to go the portal route. But let's keep some perspective here:
DeleteDid anybody serious appoint Orji as the savior? We all (or many of us anyway) HOPED he would be a functioning replacement starter. That's it, but it always came with discussing how he notoriously has just 1 pass attempt on his resume going into the season. We HOPED he could run the offense, backed up by the strength of his rushing abilities, our run game, and Colston Loveland, etc, and overcome his lack of experience to be a *game manager* with benefits. It was more - "can he do the bare minimum as a passer?" - than "this guy is carrying us to a repeat".
It was always unclear. Thunder, rightfully, backed Warren as a strong alternative while others (including me) thought Tuttle would leverage his experience to be the starter. Nobody thought Orji was going to go out there and play like Tim Tebow.
So here we are. Orji isn't ready for the job. It seems clear he CANNOT yet do the minimum as a passer. It remains to be seen if that's just a talent limitation or if it's a matter of time and development. Let's not pretend it's some kind of shocking disappointment.
The hopes in Orji are essentially by default because we know the other options are low level talents or a true freshman that also won't wow you with physical talent.
Should have hit the portal but chose not to. Maybe they overestimated Orji or Warren or Tuttle in doing so, maybe they tried and there really weren't any better options, we don't really know.
Mostly agree, but during the Countdown & in Spring, Tebow comparisons did in fact come up, along with an assumption that D1 LBs might "freak out" over how to defend Orji ... Nomura was not only ready, but attacked with his long hair on fire
DeleteOrji is simply not a long-term answer. Is Warren? On second watch, I'm lowering my thoughts on him, and changing my grade for WRs from F to Incomplete ... Davis stared down every first option, ignoring the open guy. Can't blame the Receivers for that, and it only made Edwards night lol even worse on that STARE DOWN to the Flat
*look* worse, not "lol"
DeleteTebow comparison was stylist (power runner) and hopeful. Not remotely an expectation of Heisman-caliber performance. NOBODY thought that.
DeleteOrji was further away than I thought, but the writing was on the wall when a walk-on was announced as starter. I don't know what constitutes "long-term" in this case but he's got 2 more years after this season to raise his game. He's clearly not ready now. Maybe he never will be. But I've seen a lot of players written off too soon (e.g., Runyan, Q.Johnson, Milton, C.Hinton, Barrett) and then turning into very good college players and onto the NFL and I've seen guys get hyped up to be NFL talents a few seasons into their careers and very much not be that (e.g., McCaffrey, Issac). Let's just see what happens.
Warren was better than I thought. He was composed for a first time starter (although as a 22 year old senior he should be) and avoided mistakes. Short accuracy was respectable. Didn't look overmatched by the moment. The INT was more of a talent limitation than a bad decision - Bell beat his man. I think it's obvious his talent level is much closer to O'Korn than McCarthy, and he's not going to go out and win you a ball game, but he looked like a guy who can avoid losing you one. Maybe a McNamara season in there? That feels optimistic, even as an objectively low bar.
The writing was on the wall LAST year ... Orji looked like a guy who hadn't been trusted to pass in 29 Games
DeleteKeep him as a gadget, with the pass serving as a "Trick Play"
@ Lank 5:07 p.m.
DeleteIt was Fred Moore who was open on the deep INT, not Kendrick Bell. And I don't even know that it was a "talent limitation." Warren underthrew the ball. I think he has the arm strength to get it there. He's not the first QB to misjudge a throw and hang it up for an underneath defender to make a play on the ball. You just have to put it out front where either Moore makes a play or nobody does.
@Jelly
DeleteOrji's use in 2022 was not entirely unlike Milton and Mcarthy who were trusted to go out there and run the ball (mostly) in competitive situations very early in their careers, before ascending to successful power 5 starters and NFL draft choices in time.
Do I think that's happening with Orji? No. But the lack of trust early in career is not a death sentence for Orji. It's not encouraging, but neither was the early career of guys like Jake Rudock and Tom Brady. Doesn't take looking far to understand this -- Warren did even less than Orji his first 2 years on campus and he had both age and experience (at QB) in his favor. Now he's the starter at Michigan. I would not be surprised if Orji was at some point between week 2 of 2024 and week 12 of 2026 either. It takes time sometimes for things to play out.
But go ahead and write him off. It's not like you've ever been dead wrong about a young QB before...
@Thunder
DeleteWell we have different assessment of Warren's talent level. You are right that one underthrown ball isn't everything (far from it), but when you are a 22 year old walk-on with no major college offers through 3 years of high school, your run game is struggling, and you throw downfield twice all game (and both are unsuccessful) -- well, let's just say that the "talent" here is pretty speculative. I hope you are right, but it's possible that that ball was underthrown because it was the QB was not the type of talent to consistently deliver accurate balls deep.
BTW - I don't think you ever answered the question about size WRT to Warren. You've repeatedly raised issue with Jadyn Davis on the basis of size (despite being a highly regarded recruit), and used height to argue Jack Tuttle (who has bounced from Utah to Indiana where he repeatedly got beat out by guys like Connor Bazelak) was talented, -- yet Warren, who is a lightly recruited walk-on and smaller than Davis (though 1 inch taller) has been praised for his talent level.
Is it possible that you're judging talent at QB too heavily based how people look (physical traits) and completion percentage (often driven by easy throws)?
It seems a bit contrarian to argue that Tuttle and Warren are the talents in the QB room while criticizing the talent limitations of Orji and Davis. Tuttle and Warren have a lot of years on Davis and Orji. They are SUPPOSED to win the job, if talent is equivalent. Yet Orji is ahead of Tuttle and went toe to toe with Warren.
Mistake avoidance and reliability are important (especially for a team that wants to win with defense and pounding run game) but closer aligned with experience than talent.
@ Lank 12:21 p.m.
DeleteNo QB at Michigan has ever been 6'0" or 6'1" and 200 lbs. unless they were a running QB like Denard Robinson. That's the basis for it. I think I've already explained that. It's not about ability to throw or whatever. It's that I've never seen it in my lifetime at Michigan. There's a reason Bryce Young was such an anomaly at Alabama...and he's yet to find success in the NFL. Success just doesn't come very often for players who are that size. Then there's Russell Wilson, but Wilson can run...and he's thicker.
Davis Warren is too thin for my liking. I don't love it. I'm concerned for his health if he takes big hits. And yet...these are the choices Michigan has. I also don't like a 6'3", 235 lb. guy - who obviously has plenty of size - who can't complete passes.
Michigan's quarterback room is a weak one. I think everyone in the country knows that now.
I do not believe Warren maxed out his arm on that throw to Moore. Even aside from comments from coaches (his arm strength is on par with J.J. McCarthy's, etc.), if you watch the play, he takes an extra hitch backward and throws off his back foot. I think he was trying to be too precise rather than letting it fly. He didn't climb in the pocket and his momentum wasn't carrying him forward. The ball went about 50 yards in the air. If he throws that ball about 53 or 54 yards, it's a touchdown. Just because a ball is underthrown doesn't mean he lacks the arm strength to get it there.
Just for reference's sake, Warren's overthrow to Tyler Morris went from his own 33 to the Fresno 26, so it traveled 41 yards...and that was from the middle of the field to the sideline. The TD to Kendrick Bell in the spring game was thrown from the 50 yard line and went about 5-6 yards deep into the end zone, so that's a 55-ish yard throw right there.
Warren had the arm strength to get it to Moore on Saturday. It just didn't happen.
@Thunder, on the INT, Link got beat ... for a new QB, that may have hurried his release from bottom up
Delete@Lank, How many times did Milton & McCarthy pass in their first 3o games? Orji? The scenarios are not the same
If you don't think it's happening with Orji, YOU are the one writing him off. At least I acknowledge there is a role for him
@Thunder
DeleteMcNamara was 6'1, same height as Davis, and Michigan won a big ten championship with him. Forcier flamed out with off field stuff but looked pretty good at 6' for a guy who wasn't scaring folks with his legs. Denard, you already mentioned, is a pretty notable exception for stature. The carve out for being able to run is a pretty one and I wouldn't rule Davis out as being capable as a runner yet either.
There's a one inch difference in height between Davis (6'1) and Warren 6'2 -- but he is smaller (considering weight). So "size" here is not a differentiator. You're saying the 1 inch difference in height is what causes you to be so skeptical of Davis vs Warren? Seems like a pretty big STRETCH to assert that 6'2 is a magic number and 6'1 is a problem.
Tua Tagavailoa is another shorter QB who doesn't present a great run threat - and his little brother. Caleb Williams is 6'1 and not known for his running.
If your take is the 6'1 is a problem and 6'2 isn't -- that's a pretty HOT one given history.
-------------------------------------------
On QB room talent -- I agree it's pretty weak which is why I have been surprised at you calling out Warren and Tuttle for being talented players. It stands in contrast with Davis, who, as a freshman, shouldn't be ready yet, but recruiting profile would indicate has plenty of talent (and potential).
On ARM STRENGTH -- I think Warren can make long throws. Many can. But if he isn't very talented (as a QB overall) then you're not going to see a lot of success downfield ont hose higher difficulty attempts, especially without WRs bailing you out. Orji and even Denard had good arm strength but we're getting every sign that Orji isn't trusted to throw deep and Denard wasn't known for being a talented downfield passer either (though he had his moments, especially when he let his WRs make some plays on the ball).
The Michigan coaches threw it deep only twice. I'm not surprised but I think that's telling you something about talent level given this was a close game where the offense scuffled quite a bit
"Caleb Williams isn't known for his running" is a pretty hot take considering he ran for 27 touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards in three years of college. I mean...I guess maybe he's known for his passing (or for writing messages on his fingernails or crying after a loss or something), but anyone who watched Caleb Williams knows that guy can run.
DeleteI agree Caleb Williams can run. It's not why he was drafted #1. JJ can run too. As a guy who discounts rushing ability from QBs - and has been skeptical of players like Hurts and Jackson who bring a lot more to the table with their legs - the carve out is in itself a bit of a head scratcher.
DeleteI remember where some kind of point was made here about importance of passing when Tua replaced Hurts in the championship game. But now they are both in the NFL and both successful at passing the ball and I'm to think here that Tua would have been too short to be a starter at Michigan? (just kidding, sorta).
There's a lot of 6'2 QBs and 6'1 QBs and pretending like one inch is disqualifying isn't an honest argument. Nor is saying that QBs who are over 6'5 are too tall to play in the NFL. There's not many those of that can't run either.
Moving The Target
DeleteLmao, can't make this sh:t up
Lank, please take ownership of your total dismissal of Warren's chances at being the starting QB. You completely dismissed this as even a remote chance and scoffed at those who did. Complete miss on your part.
Delete@Blue in NC. I'll own it. I'm very surprised he is the starter. I ruled him out and I was wrong. I thought it would be Tuttle and Orji rotating but it's Warren and Orji rotating, with Warren getting a much bigger share.
DeleteMoreover, I'll note that it's not the first time. 2024 is not unlike 2021, my preseason assessment of the how the depth chart would end up was totally incorrect. At that time I thought it would be a different veteran (Bowman) chosen ahead of a guy without a ton of talent (McNamara) and a freshman (McCarthy), so there's some parallels. If a similar situation arrives again I'll have to revise my logic and thinking.
I've owned being wrong on Bowman repeatedly. Given how 2021 played out -- I'm very happy I was!
Hopefully 2024 works out as happily
Just checking back on what I wrote in the Warren post:
Delete"LankAugust 25, 2024 at 11:12 PM
But I've been wrong many times before on my guesses of how the season will play out"
Consider yourselves warned!
"So if Warren Davis wants to go off on some sort of story book Kurt Warner trajectory or game-manage this offense to a big ten championship like Cade McNamara did, I'll gladly tip my cap and start eating crow."
The crow tastes OK so far. I'll keep you updated. LOL
"LankAugust 26, 2024 at 2:52 PM
I think he might be able to do a reasonable Cade McNamara impression if handed the reigns, but that says more about what I think of McNamara and his talent level than Warren."
I'll stick to this as well as my disavowal of Warren being some great talent overseen in recruiting circles because of things that happened after his junior season.
BlueinNC may be another of LyinLank's burner accounts. DESPERATE!
DeleteI am not associated with Lank at all and I post on MGoBlog. I had seen enough from Warren to at least consider him an even contender. Lank dismissed this but give him credit, at least he is owning it. Unfortunately, it's unlikely that Warren can really drive us to wins and even with improved OLine play, it's unlikely we have anything more than a slightly better than average offense, but I think Warren has enough to keep us in most games and possibly sniff the playoff.
DeletejeLLy has a lot of fantasies related to me, Blue. Don't take his weirdness personally.
DeleteI don't think Warren is driving us to any wins but I think he can be functional in a McNamarian sense. If they stick with Warren, it's going to come down if the run blocking is there for Edwards and Mullings. The WRs are a factor but Loveland is stellar so Warren should be able to complete the short stuff. As long as they can stay on schedule and he isn't asked to make a lot of big plays himself it could be alright.
Thunder, when you get your post game up, I'm interested in your take on rotations. Lots of guys got snaps, and moved in & out often
ReplyDeleteI'm all for playing time during OOC & 2opt wins, but we reached into the depth chart with the game undecided
Our offense is gonna have to move the ball to keep up with SC ... even a great D is going to cough up points against them
ReplyDelete