Name: Alex Orji
Height: 6’3″
Weight: 235 lbs.
High school: Sachse (TX) Sachse
Position: Quarterback
Class: Redshirt sophomore
Jersey number: #10
Last year: I ranked Orji #50 and said he would be a backup quarterback (LINK). He played in six games and ran 15 times for 86 yards.
TTB Rating: 55
Orji had a really weird odyssey last year as a quarterback, especially for one who is supposedly the heir apparent to the quarterback position. He started off the season as a deep backup who wasn't allowed to pass the ball at the beginning of the season to . . .
. . . well . . .
. . . yeah, he was just never allowed to pass all year. Not even once.
I say that with one caveat, and that's that there was a trick play - a QB pop pass call - against Alabama in the Rose Bowl where it looked like throwing the ball was a possibility, but Alabama covered it well so Orji kept it and ran. But it amounted to zero pass attempts.
Jim Harbaugh did praise Orji in the 2023 pre-season and say that Orji could be an outstanding kickoff returner.
Going into the 2024 season, Orji seems to be the betting favorite to win the quarterback position. As has been discussed here and elsewhere, Orji the freak athlete possesses a potential game-changing skill that nobody else has. None of the other quarterbacks have the arm strength of a Joe Milton or the speed of a Denard Robinson. What Orji has is a Tim Tebow-esque ability to be both a quarterback and a power runner. It remains to be seen whether Orji has the leadership or even the throwing ability of a Tebow.
Normally I would rank a starting quarterback higher than #8, but it's not clear whether Orji will even start the opener, let alone hold onto a starting job. Walk-on Davis Warren has been pushing to start, and the most experienced guy on the roster is Utah/Indiana transfer Jack Tuttle, who was the #2 quarterback in 2023 but who has been unhealthy for the majority of his career. It will be interesting to see who starts at QB and whether that guy can hold onto the job throughout the year. But even if Orji ends up as the backup, he should have a package of plays as a rushing threat.
Prediction: Starting quarterback; 1,900 passing yards, 16 touchdowns; 500 rushing yards, 7 touchdowns
That's just it. Tebow was not a great passer, but an elite athlete and great leader. The bar is not too high for Orji ... just don't look like Milton/okorn/Bellamy as a passer
ReplyDeleteThat's doable, right?
So 2024 is going to be interesting at the QB position, and my reason for thinking about that is who is *not* here -- Jim Harbaugh. I love me some Jim Harbaugh, but it always seemed to me that he was looking for his next Andrew Luck, and until he got that guy, he was going to play a little too tight-reined on whatever QB he had. He finally got his guy in J.J. McCarthy.
ReplyDeleteNow we have Sherrone Moore, who has a philosophy similar to Harbaugh, but I'm wondering if we'll see more creative ways to exploit the talents of the QB, whatever that QB brings to the table. So if it's Orji, then we lean towards X, but if it's Warren, we shade a bit to Y ... and all within a framework designed to flex to each QB's strengths.
I'm hoping. Again, I love me some Jim Harbaugh, but I always had a sense that he could a bit stubborn at times. My sense is Moore is different in this regard.
Sherrone seems, if anything, more run-focused than Harbaugh. If the PSU 2nd half SMASH is any indication... But we're guessing to a large part. Moore is a rookie head coach and Campbell is a rookie OC. We'll just have to wait and see.
DeleteFWIW Sam Webb has repeatedly asserted very strongly that the offense doesn't change for Orji or Warren or anyone else. The fact that McCarthy's arm was used infrequently for a top 10 caliber talent speaks to that. The offense is the offense. It was under Harbaugh and maybe again under Moore. But the playcall mix may change, naturally, to fit personnel.
Sherrone Moore has repeatedly said that the consecutive runs in the PSU game was not planned, but it was something he chose to do given how their ability to move the ball with passing wasn't there, and that the OL was particularly effective in that game of moving their DL. So that second half doesn't necessarily reflect an offensive philosophy on the part of Moore so much as it shows his willingness to take what the opponent gave him.
Delete"Sam Webb has repeatedly asserted very strongly that the offense doesn't change for Orji or Warren or anyone else." I am quite certain Webb did NOT mean "doesn't change AT ALL for ..." I am quite certain Coach Moore and Campbell will absolutely lean the offense one way or another based on who is behind the center. That's not the same thing as radically changing the offense. But it's also not the same thing as no change AT ALL.
Agree Anon. PSU was a unique circumstance, so it's not necessarily philosophical. But it's not unique to have to adapt playcalling as the game goes on. I don't know that that many head coaches have the guts to be so unbalanced in their playcalling and sticking to what is working and not be worried that it will suddenly stop and they'll get skewered for being too predictable and predictable. It's a great sign for Sherrone, IMO. But you know Harbaugh is an influence there and Harbaugh loves nothing more than to call the same play 5 times in a row LOL.
DeleteI agree that the plays called for Orji and Warren won't be the same. But I do think some things (like run pass mix overall and the ability to execute the playbook needed to be successful on 3rd and long as well as the ability to execute an RPO or zone read) are things that will be there regardless of the skillset of the QB. Unlike RB, it's pretty uncommon to be able to sub QBs from play to play -- whoever is back there has to be able to do it all. To me it sounds like Campbell and Moore have a vision for what that offense looks like, regardless of the guy back there.
Put a different way, I think the maize team and the blue team ran the same offense in the spring game, for every guy in the white jersey. That run package we've seen - the package that McCaffrey, Milton, McCarthy, and Orji led over the years - that's not the offense that Moore/Campbell are going to run full time. Even if Orji is QB1.
It's an unknown though because again. Rookie HC. Rookie OC. Rookie OL coach. New RB coach. New TE coach. At least 8 new starters. etc.
I'm remembering back to the Tebow days at Florida, and I recall his passing to be in the "good enough" category, particularly when he had the weapons around him that he did, particularly Percy Harvin. Tebows height/weight is comparable to Orji's, and as I think back to Tebow at Florida, I can recall a lot of 3rd and 4 situations where Tebow just plowed for the 1st down. But that was 15 years ago, and in college. His ability to do that in the NFL was vastly reduced, because the linebackers were just as big and strong as he was.
ReplyDeleteWhich leads me to this question: if we compare today's college linebackers -- at the really good schools, not the Alcorn States and such -- I think they're bigger and faster than they were back then. I just looked at the roster, and Michigan's linebackers are almost exclusively in the 225 to 250 pound range. Is the "QB-as-mooseback" model as workable as it was in 2007 and 08?
Way too high for a backup QB!
ReplyDeleteJust kidding. I thought it would be Tuttle who started, with Orji rotating in, and things playing themselves out as the season progressed but it looks like Warren will be starting instead of Tuttle.
Orji seems to be providing strong leadership and we've seen the rushing ability. His speed isn't touching Denard, but that's enough to give him a huge advantage over the competition at QB. But the coaches did not see him as good enough to win the job out of camp so that means the passing ability is just not there at this point.
So now we have the following QB room:
-A 24 year old who lost his starting job at Indiana to Conner Bazelak (among others) and can't stay healthy.
-A 22 year old walk on who hasn't started since JV football in 2017 and has 15 pass attempts in 3 years of college
-A 20 year old who many projected to change positions and has 1 pass attempts in 2 years of college football
-A 19 year old true freshman
Whoever is at QB...I hope they outplay their resume.
GO BLUE!
If nothing else this season is going to entertaining.
Tebow cannot win a national championship in present day college football. You need to be an accurate passer to win the Natty. It is like trying to win the NBA without shooting 3s in 2020s. It is not enough for Orji to just be a leader and an athlete. He needs to make the defense respect the passing game somewhat.
ReplyDeleteI tend to agree, unless the rest of the team elite in all phases, and then a less-than-elite passer might win the championship. But a run-heavy offense paired with a somewhat porous defense is a problem. Michigan last year was near elite in defense and offensive line play, and the run game was enough.
DeleteIt's important to remember that Michigan did not steamroll their way to a championship like Georgia 2021 and 2022 did. There were some games that might have gone the other way: Penn State, Maryland (in which, I understand, J.J. was playing very banged up), Ohio State, and Alabama. A very good case could be made that Michigan's defense is what carried the day.
I wonder how much of J.J.'s toolbox went unused in 2023 simply because Michigan didn't need to unleash him all the way?
@FT
DeleteTebow completed 66% of his passes over his career. Being "an accurate passer" is a pretty subjective thing because Tebow was not a very good passer objectively (48% in the NFL). He WAS able to execute the playbook. That's what matters.
I don't think Cade McNamara is a very accurate passer. He was at 51% last year and 56% the year before. But he WAS able to execute the playbook his junior year and complete 64% of a his passes in 2021.
Agree with you FT that Orji, to be a successful starter, has to be able to pass well. The thing that we saw with Denard (who completed 63% of his passes in 2010) is that running ability makes passing much easier. Football isn't played like camp drill or like NFL combine. You're not operating in a vacuum. If you can't run it, it's harder to pass accurately. If you can run it, it's easier to pass accurately. It's all about the results.
The analogy to the 3 pointer is spot on except here's the thing -- a covered 3 pointer is a lot harder to hit than a wide open 3 pointer. And a 3 pointer in the corner is easier than a 3 pointer at the top of the key. If you are a threat to drive to the basket, or pass inside to high efficiency scorer -- it's a lot easier to hit those 3 pointers, regardless of who can hit a higher percentage in an empty gym drill.
College football 15 years ago was a lot different than college football is now. People know how to defend zone reads and RPOs. I don't see teams getting flat-out out schemed as much as you used to see in the 2000s. But the fundamental fact that a rushing QB presents a challenge to defenses that makes everything else go more smoothly for RBs, WRs, and TEs. That hasn't changed. Tebow's rushing ability would still be a massive asset in 2024, even if Urban Meyer's playbook would look substantially different today than in 2009.
Jalen Milroe is not an elite passer yet but he was a play away (by his defense) from taking his team to a national championship game and likely (IMO) winning it. He's good enough though as a passer, and excellent as a rusher, so he easily could have defeated an elite passer (JJ McCarthy) if that game was replayed.
The fact that Orji is not starting given the massive benefit his athleticism and leadership offers, speaks to how far his passing skills need to develop further. Fortunately he's still a junior and he's going to see the field this year and grow further.
I don't think Tebow, Milroe, Orji, Denard, or McNamara are going to wow you in any passing accuracy drills compared to most NFL QBs. But 4 of the 5 guys above were able to throw the ball with good enough accuracy to be highly effective in the passing game because of rushing ability.
DeleteTebow had two seasons with a 172 passer rating. Denard had a 150 passer rating in 2010. McNamara had a 142 season in 2021. Milroe had a passer rating of 172 last year. Those are all solid to very good passing efficiency numbers.
McNamara benefitted from other peoples rushing ability (3 NFL RBs and Joe Moore winning OL) while the others exploited their own rushing ability, but they all led excellent offenses. I can't honestly say which of them would win a passing accuracy drill, but it doesn't really matter because that's not football.
"were able to throw the ball with good enough accuracy to be highly effective"
DeleteThis is one of my hobby horses ... the principle of "good enough." There are many things in this world in which "good enough" is just that; that holding out for more is just chasing diminishing marginal returns.
I like your Milroe example: given the totality of the Alabama team in 2023, his passing ability was "good enough" to, as you say, darn near get the job done. My guess is the coaches are looking at Orji and feeling that he's close to "good enough," but not quite there.
It's a multi-factor equation: let's say Donovan Edwards comes out a new man, and just ripping long runs here and there, and Kalel Mullings is a consistent move the chains guy and more. Well, now the "good enough" bar moves, as the coaches don't need to have Orji carry a game on his passing.
I've said before, I'm eager to see how, or if, they test out Jaydn Davis. Yes, a true freshman, and they'll no doubt want to keep his redshirt, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him play in four games fairly early to find out if he's a viable backup "just in case."
I think it would be most wise to only play Davis in like 1 non-conference game, just to get his feet wet. Beyond that you want to save him for later in the year, just in case he ends up being your best option.
DeleteI would not be surprised if Jaydn Davis is seeing meaningful snaps by Ohio State. If you've burned all 4 appearances in the first half of the season, the consequence of a losing an entire season's worth of eligibility becomes tough to sacrifice for one game in the late season.
Get him some snaps against Arkansas State then wait.
Michigan didn't unleash JJ because they could not pass block.
ReplyDeleteHe had the 4th highest pass attempt total in MIchigan history despite the first 9 games being blowout victories. They struggled against PSU sure, but JJ doesn't get to do what he did against OSU and Alabama if the OL can't pass block.
DeleteFor Anon @1139, in addition to FT's take, those Gator teams were STACKED, on both sides of the ball. Not just Harvin, but Hernandez, Caldwell, Ingram, Murphy ... Sooo many WRs & TEs to choose from, a stellar OL, and a Defense that was lights out protected from playing close games. Plus, one of the greatest CFB coaches ever in Meyer
ReplyDeleteNot to take away from Tebow, but dude had way more options than Orji will have this year
McNamara and Tebow were surrounded by NFL personnel.
DeleteLook I just made a comparison!
That's a bad comparison. Cade didn't have a 1st Rd picks; only two overall
DeleteBut let's compare: Tebow had a 7th Rd RB & WR in year1, a 3rd Rd WR in year2, a 1st and a 4th Rd WR, plus a 5th Rd TE in year3, and finished with a 1st Rd Center, 4th Rd TE and 5th Rd WR ... meanwhile, McNamara had 4th Rd Haskins and 7th Round Steuber
#n0tBuiLtf0rtHiS
A dozen players on the 2021 MIchigan offensive were drafted into the NFL (or will be soon)
DeleteRB: Haskins, Corum, and Edwards
TE: All, Schoonmaker
OL: Hayes, Keegan, Zinter, Steuber
WR: Wilson, Johnson, Sainristil*
I didn't even include Bell since he missed most of the season to injury.
The only prominent guy that wasn't an NFL caliber player around McNamara was Vastardis. After that it's guys like AJ Henning on the margins. The 2021 team was loaded with NFL talent. Except at center...and QB.
Corum was drafted two years later ... nobody knows for certain about Edwards
DeleteSchoon was drafted a year after. Hayes too. Keegan & Zinter two years later
Wilson & Johnson two years later
Saint was drafted on D, after establishing himself on that side of the Ball
Maaaybe Zinter could have been drafted in 2o22, after the Cade season ... maybe. Except he would not been eligible numbnuts
MUCH different than EACH of Tebow's four seasons
*I've got you completely off the Orji topic. OBSESSED. Easily manipulated. Big-time L
#n0tbUilTf0rtHiS