NOTE: I want to acknowledge that this post is coming out after Michigan's first game. I usually get this post done prior to the season - for obvious reasons - but I was scrambling to finish the countdown and just couldn't get it all wrapped up. Some of these predictions were already shared in the season countdown posts, but some were not addressed.
LEADING RUSHER
I'm not sure how well this prediction holds up after watching game one against Fresno State, in which Kalel Mullings outgained Donovan Edwards. But I believed Edwards would be the lead back and put up a good chunk of yards.
Prediction: Donovan Edwards, 1100 yards
Hit the jump for the rest of the prognostications.
LEADING RECEIVER
There have been some Ronnie Bell comparisons for Tyler Morris, and Bell was Michigan's leading receiver pretty much whenever he didn't have a torn ACL. Ironically, Morris tore his ACL in high school. Bell had just 13 catches last season, but Michigan needs a new #1 receiver. It might very well end up being Colston Loveland - who had 8 catches for 87 yards in the season opener - but I think teams will tamp down on Loveland and open things up for Morris a little bit.
Prediction: Tyler Morris, 560 yards
LEADING TACKLER
Maryland had a really good linebacker named Jaishawn Barham, and now that really good player plays for Michigan. The Wolverines have poached two good inside linebackers from other Big Ten teams in the past two seasons, and they will both likely be vying for the team lead in tackles. I have Barham edging out former Nebraska linebacker Ernest Hausmann in tackles, 65 to 60.
Prediction: Jaishawn Barham, 65 tackles
LEADING SACKER
Speaking of transfers, Michigan also landed Coastal Carolina defensive end/outside linebacker Josaiah Stewart prior to 2023. Stewart spent that season backing up Jaylen Harrell and steps into a starting role for 2024. I have Stewart getting 7.0 sacks in 2024, and he's off to a good start after one game with 2.0 quarterback takedowns in the bag already.
Prediction: Josaiah Stewart, 7.0 sacks
LEADING INTERCEPTOR
I was right on point last season when I predicted that Will Johnson would get 4 interceptions. Hooray for me! What I didn't predict was that Mike Sainristil would get 6 interceptions and beat out Johnson in this category. So this year I'm going to double down on Johnson, but I figured teams would avoid him a little more since he's an All-American and one of the best players in the country.
Prediction: Will Johnson, 3 interceptions
ALL-BIG TEN FIRST TEAM
Prediction: Mason Graham, Colston Loveland, Will Johnson
ALL-AMERICAN
Prediction: Colston Loveland, Will Johnson
LEADING SCORER (NON-KICKER)
Prediction: Donovan Edwards
BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
After spending time at linebacker in his first few years on campus and then transitioning to running back, I think Kalel Mullings is going to hold off the likes of Jordan Marshall and Ben Hall for the RB2 position. He's shown some nice vision and quickness on his way to 221 yards last year, but I think 2024 is going to be a pretty big year for Mullings. I predicted 750 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns.
Prediction: Kalel Mullings
BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
While there are lots of options on offense since the only returning starter is tight end Colston Loveland, the Wolverines are bringing back several starters or heavy contributors on defense. The starting defensive linemen have already played a ton, and so have the linebackers. The one guy who has barely played that I expect to have a good season is new nickel Zeke Berry, who has played just 45 snaps in his first two seasons. He has a good combination of speed and physicality.
Prediction: Zeke Berry
MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFENSIVE PLAYER
I think people are pretty excited about Semaj Morgan, who had a good finish to the 2023 season. He can help in the passing game, running game, and on special teams. I think he will do some special things, but I have questions about whether Alex Orji and/or Davis Warren can get him the ball consistently enough to match the expectations that might be coming for him from some fans.
Prediction: Semaj Morgan
MOST DISAPPOINTING DEFENSIVE PLAYER
I think the defense is going to be pretty awesome in 2024, so I can't really pick a single starter who I expect to have a poor year. However, there are some backups who have been earning hype. For a few years now, Michigan has had quality edge player after quality edge player. Last year it was Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart backing up Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell, and I think Moore and Stewart will be good as starters. People keep talking up T.J. Guy as a guy standing out in practices, but I'm still not sold on him at this point. I don't think he'll be what Moore and Stewart were in 2023, even though I expect him to be the #3 edge guy.
Prediction: T.J. Guy
THE BIG FINISH
August 31 vs. Fresno State: WIN. I know this happened already, but I did predict a 34-10 victory and it was a 30-10 win, so this isn't hindsight.
September 7 vs. Texas: LOSS. I don't think Michigan has the quarterback play to match up with Texas returning starter Quinn Ewers. Even if Michigan's defense plays well, Michigan has too many question marks on offense.
September 14 vs. Arkansas State: WIN. I don't like Butch Jones, so I hope Michigan crushes them.
September 21 vs. USC: WIN. I think this will be closer than some people expect. Lincoln Riley does a great job with the offense. I think USC will be better on defense, and Michigan will still be figuring things out on offense. If this were at USC, I would probably predict a loss.
September 28 vs. Minnesota: WIN. Michigan typically out-athletes Minnesota even when the Gophers are tough in the trenches.
October 5 @ Washington: WIN. Former Michigan assistant Jedd Fisch is in his first year at Washington after they lost a huge chunk of the team when Kalen DeBoer replaced Nick Saban at Alabama. Michigan's defense will be too strong.
October 19 @ Illinois: WIN. This game scares me a little bit because Bret Bielema is going to have his team ready for a physical battle, and it's also a week after a cross-country trip to Seattle. I think this will be a close victory for the Wolverines.
October 26 vs. Michigan State: WIN. I like Jonathan Smith, Michigan State's new head coach. But Michigan has a better defense than any other unit that will be playing in the game.
November 2 vs. Oregon: LOSS. Michigan has bad mojo when it comes to Oregon, and I also like UCF/Oklahoma transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
November 9 @ Indiana: WIN. The Hoosiers are coached by former JMU head man Curt Cignetti. When Cignetti was introduced at an Indiana basketball game, he said "Michigan and Ohio State suck." I feel like that might have been premature.
November 23 vs. Northwestern: WIN. I'm not sure how Northwestern would move the ball against Michigan's defense.
November 30 @ Ohio State: LOSS. There's been talk about this OSU squad being the most talented NCAA team in years. Maybe that's true. Maybe not. I just think they have too much on both sides of the ball, and Michigan won't have the juice to keep up.
OVERALL: 9-3
Oof, I am leaning toward win v Texas. The defending national champions are in The Big House, with the best D in the nation. Warren can't afford to F up; Mullings needs a day. The Don needs an explosive play (or two)
ReplyDeleteOverall though, I don't know how long we can cover for QB ... 8-4 seems just as likely as 9-3. Outside shot at 1o-2 if Moore can coach around the most important position in sports
I am leaning towards a 8-4 season. The main reason is not QB. It is the C position. Without good/great offensive line play, this team is without an offensive identity. I am surprised Guidice took over the center spot from Crippen (not in a good way). At least Link winning the RT job was kinda surprising in a good way. He can be expected to improve as he is a true freshman. But if this team cannot convert 3rd and short (which is semi-automatic in the last 3 yrs), it is hard to see how we can beat Texas, Ohio and Oregon. I would even predict 1 more loss to a USC/Washington/Minnesota.
ReplyDeletespot on. OC is so important. Probably 2nd after QB at the college level where mistakes are still frequent.
DeleteI'll quibble on one point - 3rd and short has not been automatic last few years. It has been good but we've gotten stubborn many times and had to try repeatedly to convert short distances with multiple plays. Harbaugh went for a lot of his 4th downs after failing on 3rd and short. It felt more automatic when we had guys like Khalid Hill and Ben Mason back there to me. I don't have the stats to prove it though.
(One minor point - Link is a sophomore who red-shirted, not true frosh. But I agree he'll get better and RT is less worrisome than OC.)
I expect 8-4. After game 1 confirmed some of the worries that cropped up when Warren and Giudice were rumored to be starters, I considered revising down to 7-5 if anything. I'll hold for now.
ReplyDeleteI see 6 pretty sure wins (Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois, Ark State, and Fresno State.) I see 3 pretty sure losses (Texas, Oregon, and OSU.) Hopefully we can find an upset there, and if we do, it could mean a playoff berth.
That leaves 3 swing games that are up for interpretation. Minnesota (who I like more than others despite their week 1 loss), Washington (mostly because it's on the road), and USC. I think we'll end up going 2-1: Could be optimistic there.
A 9-3 season could still be good enough to make the playoff if we avoid any blowouts and get help. From there, anything can happen.
My HOPE is we sneak into a playoff berth. My EXPECTATION is fringe top 25. My WORRY is a repeat of 2017 where the D is good but the QB position is a struggle all year, OL fails to gel, WR aren't good enough, and the big talents (Loveland/Edwards) aren't quite good enough to put the offense on their backs.
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on LEADERS:
Rusher: I don't see Edwards or Mullings getting to 1000 yards while splitting carries and Orji taking a chunk as well. Nothing changed for me, personally, based on what we saw in Game 1 although I did expect closer to 60/40 carries than 50/50 between Mullings and Edwards. Lots of season left tho.
Leading receiver: Loveland. Given the writeup in the countdown I'm surprised Morris was Thunder's choice but it's definitely possible. He's clearly WR1, and a lot will be put on Loveland's plate.
Tackler: Hausman
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Breakout: I think Mullings and Berry are excellent choices as they take on much bigger roles. Lot's of candidates.
Disappointment: I dunno if anyone is expecting TJ Guy to be like either Stewart and Moore. That's pretty unrealistic. I was thinking Mangham, because he seems more like a player for 2025. But I was also considering Barham just because there was so much hype in the spring and summer about him. He should be good - I doubt he's an All American type of world-wrecker.
On offense I would have said Mullings a few weeks ago but now it's gotta be Orji for failing to win the job and turfing that first throw LOL.
These depend on individual expectations though.
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HONORS
All America: Graham and Loveland.
Johnson.? Maybe but competition might be stiff.
ABT First Team: I'll add Hinton and Barham in part because they are so big and imposing which will make an impression on coaches and observers both. I think Moore (or Stewart flip a coin) have a decent shot too. I would put the over/under on our defense at 3.5 guys getting first team honors. On offense it's probably 1.0 (Loveland).
Lmao it just doesn't stop with Lank's obsession for debate
DeleteBack in April, I was down on the QB & WR rooms and said we're probably an 8 win team. Lank went nuts, and the debate on Orji began (and insistence that WRs were playmakes). He made QB comparisons to Tebow/Cam (two of the best College QBs of the century), CJ Stroud (one of the best young NFL QBs) and ... wait for it ... Nik MF Stauskas!!!
It only took one game, and now numbnuts has given up his misplaced hope, calling for 7 or 8 wins. Pathetic
If anything, I'm a little more positive than I was in spring. OL will improve. We have Mullings when Edwards plays like a dud (a quote). WR is still unknown and QB is shakey, but at least we're not relying on OrjiCat
Maybe we won't get a playoff spot, but the gimmick will be limited while Harball (and great D) will get us to our ceiling
"Lank went nuts". JeLLy fantasies never stop.
DeleteLoveland, Edwards, and Morgan ARE playmakers.
Orji IS similar to Tebow stylistically. (which was the pont made at the time). Power more than speed, limitations as a passer.
No change in my views from spring at the team level. Individually some battles have played out different - most notably I was expecting Tuttle to start over Orji and Orji to be further along. Neither happened so although Warren lacks talent, he gets the job (by default, IMO). Once that was announced, the hope for 9-3 was further from reality. Still on the table.
My prediction was 8-4 before that but felt maybe a titch pessimistic. Not anymore. HOLD.
Let me know what quotes you have to show a contradiction. My guess is you'll come up empty handed or at best "lie" and "mislead" some single word, asserting it means nothing like what I said (#no quotes).
jeLLy gonna be jeLLy
"If anything, I'm a little more positive than I was in spring. OL will improve. We have Mullings when Edwards plays like a dud (a quote). WR is still unknown and QB is shakey, but at least we're not relying on OrjiCat"
My views on the team went WAY UP after the DB Portalpalazoo and have held steady since until the Giudicice/Link/Warren news the week before the season when it wavered from 8-4 to .... 8-4.
#desperate
Hey jelly can you show where I said " Edwards plays like a dud" or did you make that one up?
DeleteIt was just in the last week (Edwards #5) liar, and you used "dud games" (plural)
DeleteYou hate that you challenge for a quote, and I respond so easily ... go ahead, deny it. Further cement your reputation as Lyinlank
Too easy. Take your L
*debates won in the last month, mostly thanks to LyinLank's concessions:
- Joe is garbage
- RBs do matter
- we under recruited DT under DBrown
- Orji was & is a gimmick
- skipping QB recruiting for two classes after JJ would be costly
- WR room was a big fat question mark
- it's okay to question the coaches
Consistency won. Knowing the game won. Integrity won
LyinLank loses. Again
#caseclosed
Got a quote? Nope.
DeleteJust fantasies and insults. jelly gonna jelly
You aren't built for this.
Shhhh ... you lost. With quotes & data
DeleteDenying it doesn't change a thing. Maybe we can revisit during the off-season ... don't hold your breath, just hold that L up high