Michigan played Arkansas State for the first time last Saturday. Here's a look at the ten longest plays of the day for the Wolverines. (Okay, there are thirteen since there's a six-way tie at 13 yards.)
- Kalel Mullings 38-yard run (2024)
- Davis Warren 33-yard pass to Marlin Klein (2024)
- Kalel Mullings 30-yard touchdown run (2024)
- Kalel Mullings 30-yard run (2024)
- Davis Warren 20-yard pass to Colston Loveland (2024)
- Davis Warren 17-yard pass to Fredrick Moore (2024)
- Benjamin Hall 14-yard run (2024)
- Keshaun Harris 13-yard kickoff return
- Semaj Morgan 13-yard run (2024)
- Alex Orji 13-yard run (2024)
- Davis Warren 13-yard run (2024)
- Davis Warren 13-yard pass to Colston Loveland (2024)
- Davis Warren 13-yard pass to Fredrick Moore (2024)
Hit the jump for a couple clips.
Kalel Mullings needs the most carries on this team. pic.twitter.com/iovPN0BU2N
— Shot of Michigan Sports (@shotofms) September 14, 2024
Loveland is out of the game with what’s hopefully nothing serious.
— Due# (@JDue51) September 15, 2024
In steps Marlin Klein - the pride of…./checks notes…Germany🇩🇪 on a well executed seam route. pic.twitter.com/qZO5sSaq6s
Watch 5 come across the formation and insert to block. I like this kid.
— Due# (@JDue51) September 15, 2024
Bonus OL Andrew Gentry 75 with a key block on the playside LB.
And watch the safety make a “business decision” when faced with Kalel Mullings and a full head of steam. pic.twitter.com/KxdZyNQkGg
Re: the safety making a "business decision" ... yeah, his initial contact is a bit timid, but to his credit he ran Mullings down for the tackle. Sure, it was 20 yards after contact, but bless his heart, he ran after Mullings. :-)
ReplyDeleteRe: Davis Warren ... that pass to Marlin Klein looked pretty good. It's a shame Warren has not developed the ability to avoid some bad throwing decisions. If he were at this point in the season without any INTs, we might be having a different conversation.
Lack of explosive plays is an issue with this offense. 4 plays over 20 yards vs a cupcake is not many. Against Fresno it was just 1. Four against Texas (with a couple 22 yarders) would maybe be OK but two came on the last drive of the game, well after the outcome was decided.
ReplyDeleteSeason long pass play is 31 yards to Semaj (last offensive play against Texas). Season long rush play is Mulling's 38 yarders (vs Ark State arm tackles).
Michigan needs to do better going forward, getting the ball downfield and to it's best playmakers.
Five runs ... no Don ... we need more BOOM
ReplyDeleteSo not boom/bust.
Delete4.2 YPC on the season with a long of 12. Success rate strong at 47%.
Deleteno boom
no bust
Wow...Donovan Edwards is finally a tiny bit better than Ty Isaac!
DeleteTwo more posts ... #rentfree ... hey, there's another quote!
Delete*is Lank implying that while our offense needs more explosive plays, that such plays do NOT need to come from Edwards?
Or is he now conceding that YPC is a good stat to judge RB performance? Yet another self own!
YPC is a good metric of overall team effectiveness. It's one of those numbers that by itself for one game might not tell the story, particularly if turnovers lost is also high, but as games add up, a higher YPC correlates well. It's like 3rd down conversion rate: a team with a season average of 50% will generally fare better than one with a 25% rate.
Delete@Anon, the use of YPC is ironic because our board contrarian has argued against its value for years
DeleteIn this case, sure Edwards 4ypc is okay. But still lower than the team average, or any ball carrier on the team ... and there's no Boom, something this offense desperately needs
It's also the 35th best YPC in the Big Ten conference out of players who are averaging at least 4.0 carries per game. That means MOST teams have at least two players ahead of him.
DeleteI think only Iowa and UCLA don't have at least two players with a higher YPC than 4.2. Kalel Mullings is #7 in the conference at 7.5 YPC.
Ah, context ... yes, context matters
Delete@Anon
DeleteYes.
@Thunder
"Donovan Edwards is finally a tiny bit better than Ty Isaac!"
A guy who lacks vision, balance, and can't break tackles is better than Ty Isaac? You must not think much of Isaac in hindsight.
@jelly
"is Lank implying that while our offense needs more explosive plays, that such plays do NOT need to come from Edwards? Or is he now conceding that YPC is a good stat to judge RB performance? Yet another self own!"
keep the fantasies coming!
My take is the same as it was 3 years ago. Don is not a boom/bust back. Not anymore than other backs. But I welcome evidence to prove it.
Here is a fact, not a fantasy: You cannot be boom/bust if you lack boom.
Own your L.
"the use of YPC is ironic because our board contrarian has argued against its value for years"
DeleteThe board contrarian agrees with Anon not jelly. The carry to carry variance is very high and yards gained is a team stat.
YPC has lots of value! YPC is a useful team metric when used at scale. Team YPC over a season -- useful. Even to assess run game effectiveness in a individual game -- useful. To assess individual ball carriers, particularly for small sample sizes, leads to spurious conclusions though. That's how it's often used. The RB does not determine yards gained alone -- the playcall and the blocking and the defenses response are most of it.
Examples:
Vincent Smith's YPC for 4 consecutive years: 5.8. 4.4, 6.0, 2.5.
Karan Higdon's YPC for 4 consecutive months: 4.1, 6.7, 7.4, 3.8
Ty Isaac's YPC from 4 consecutive games: 10.4, 6.7, 5.6, 2.0
These things might tell you whatever you want them to tell you. Or they are just noise.
"there's no Boom, something this offense desperately needs"
YES! Agree with jelly here. Edwards isn't a boom/bust player. It only took 3 years for jelly to figure it out.
Let's see more big plays from the Don!
so many words, but dodged the context, probably on purpose. Two other RBs and our running QB have higher YPC, behind the same OL and against the same opponents. Edwards is half yard behind The Team average
DeleteMisleading? Or just FoS?
#lyinLank
What's the topic again jelly? I'll give you a hint. "we need more BOOM"
DeleteHow can you be boom/bust without any boom?
A question unanswered.
Dodged.
DeleteSo you agree with my first post, that we need more BOOM from Edwards
I accept your concession. Another W for je
@jeLLLLLY
DeleteRemember who was arguing against the boom/bust accusation?
Nobody believes you - not even you.
You're moving the target again
DeleteThat Edwards is neither Boom or Bust THIS YEAR has nothing to do with the previous three ... FOCUS
Or just agree that I'm right: we need BOOM from Edwards
Oh I see so you admit Edwards isn't a boom/bust player afterall. He just is some years and isn't other years according to you.
DeleteWhen there is no boom he isn't boom/bust. When there is no bust he is boom/bust. Got it -- you're inconsistent AF and make everything up as you go just cuz you want to talk so bad to Lank.
HOLD IT UP and then go back under your bridge
Lank...I think your understanding of boom/bust does not jive with mine, nor je93's. We've seen Edwards boom. We've seen Edwards bust. He doesn't have to hit a home run in the last game or two to be boom/bust. You keep saying "If there is no boom, there is no bust" and that's just not how it works.
DeleteHere's our occasional update:
Edwards is tied at #32 in the conference in yards per carry (4.48) after "booming" on Saturday with a 41-yard touchdown.
Edwards has been Boom-Bust for three years, and again Saturday
DeleteJust admit I'm right. Again
You don't need boom to be boom/bust and you don't need bust to be boom/bust. Boom/bust has no definition that can be documented or tested. You're making it all up.
DeleteI think I'm getting it.
I thought you might have some data to show he wasn't Boom-Bust Saturday, but you dodged
DeleteYet another Dub
I can't provide data for your vague fantasy. But neither can you.
DeleteWhy not? It's easy:
DeleteWhat was Edwards YPC on Saturday?
How many carries went over his YPC?
What happened on the other carries?
What was the result (hint: coaches sat him in favor of Mullings, who then demonstrated Harball)
Conclusion: Boom-Bust, at least on Saturday
#tooeasy
#trustthecoaches
Simple question.
DeleteWhat YPC defines boom/bust?
If it's number of carries over average --
DeleteWhat # of carries over average define boom/bust?
Much like cornography - with a p - when it comes to being boom/bust, I know it when I see it. Edwards doesn't break tackles. He gets what's there, and then if nobody's in front of him, he gets the rest, because he has true breakaway speed.
DeleteEdwards has forced 5 missed tackles this season. He made defenders miss 14 all of last year, so fewer than 1 per game.
Mullings has forced 17 missed tackles in four games this season, and he has basically been splitting carries this year with Edwards (Mullings 53, Edwards 50).
I think we're talking about different things. I agree that Mullings will break more tackles than Edwards per carry.
DeleteEdwards being labeled as boom/bust is a different topic, but I guess this definition just gets more and more slippery. That seems like it would be a results-based measure.
"I know it when I see it" is a dodge that means "I can't define it". Which is the accusation I made in the first place.
This is kind of the crux of it, though. The inability to break tackles, and it's relevant. He doesn't make people miss. He doesn't break tackles. I mean, he *did* make Lathan Ransom miss back in 2022 when he high-stepped over top of Ransom's diving tackle attempt. Like, we have seen him do it, but it's rare.
DeleteBut stats on missed tackles are tough to come by, and they're highly questionable. What exactly is a missed tackle? Does it count if Edwards is just really fast and runs by a guy? Is that a missed tackle? Or does a guy at least have to make contact with Edwards before we can claim that Edwards forced him to miss?
There is no hard definition of boom/bust. Boom/busting is in the eye of the beholder. To me, Edwards is either getting what's blocked for him...or he's going 40+ yards for a touchdown. There is no in between. There is no bulling through tackles. There are no nifty jump cuts in the hole, spin moves, hurdles, etc. He either gets tackled by the first guy who gets to him, or he doesn't get tackled.
Ultimately, he's a lot like Carlos Brown except he has had a competent offensive line rather than playing for Rich Rod.
Lank is dodging ...
DeleteWould you like me to answer? Doesn't matter ... you looked it up, and I'm right, AGAIN. I knew I was right when I made the first statement; as soon as the game was over. You've been played. Outsmarted
#n0tbUiLtf0rtHiS
Again - breaking tackles is a different topic. There are different ways to get results. Deveon Smith broke tackles. Ty Isaac didn't.
DeleteDifferent issue.
Breaking tackles is also different than making people miss tackles - which happens with cuts as well as speed.
"eye of the beholder" is Covered above. You can't define it. You just make it up. So anyone can call anyone boom/bust anytime they want. Blake Corum was boom/bust. Wyatt Shallman was boom/bust. It's all just opinions.
At one point one of you tried to argue that "bust" was the number of carries getting nothing (2 yards or less) or something to that effect but never produced any evidence to back that up. So now it's all just an opinion based on who breaks tackles (or is it makes people miss them).
And the Edwards story continues to change too. It used to be that he lacked balance and just falls over. Then it was he doesn't have vision. Now he can't break tackles.
Edwards doesn't break a lot of tackles. Glad we all agree. Kumbaya.
Thunder says it can't be defined so Go ahead and define it jelly. I'm waiting. You listed a bunch of stuff above - unorganized and incoherent word salad. Some thing about YPC? Something about number of carries? A few other things?
DeleteIt's so simple right? Go ahead and define it.
The narrative on Edwards hasn't changed. He's an elite talent who could be used more creatively. His vision has always been a question, missing cuts that HH, Corum & now Mullings see & take for extra yards. His balance & strength has always been short of what HH, corum and for sure have set up as a Harball standard
DeleteI listed his every carry for the game of his life, ohio 2o22. Your response was "wHat aB0utT c0rUm.
I'll do it here for his touches last week:
5 (tripped on grass)
3 (eh)
-2 (bust)
9 (finally, a pass!)
3 (eh)
3(eh)
-2 (bust)
3 (eh)
41( finally, BOOM)
2 (eh)
4
4
O (bust)
3 (eh)
6
there it is: more carries below YPC than at or above. More carries at or below 0 than above YPC
Boom-Bust: a guy who can hit the homerun, but otherwise won't get you what is needed for a given play, drive, game AND season ... unless used more creatively
#boomBust
The response is still WHAT ABOUT CORUM? How do you define it and does it apply to everyone else. Because...RB production varies from carry to carry.
DeleteSo here you've done it:
"more carries below YPC than at or above."
Mullings against USC? Yep. Check. boom/bust.
Mullings against Arkansas? Yep. Check. boom/bust
Mullings against Texas? Yep. Check. boom/bust.
Mullings against Fresno State? Yep. Check. boom/bust
Corum against Washington? Yep. Check. boom/bust
Please let me know the last game where a RB passed this test and was NOT boom/bust, by your definition.
@jelly. I already know you can't do it.
DeleteYour defense is "I actually gave you 3 different definitions". LOL
Because it's simple right?
"won't get you what is needed for a given play, drive, game AND season"
If only there was a stat that measured this for us. If only...
Lmao, in two posts we have the guy who calls others dumb incapable of addressing 2 of the 3 questions asked ... cherrypicking? ... dodging? ... just not smart (or a liar)?
DeleteWaiting on you to list carries for Corum or Mullings, so that we have those answers to a fairly simple litmus test ... I'm looking forward to your dodge and go with "feelings" (a quote)
(hint: edwards is Boom-Bust, the other two are not
✅ a Quote: "That seems like it would be a results-based measure"
✅ Data (see above)
@ Lank 10:35 a.m.
DeleteYou're finally catching on: Edwards doesn't break tackles and doesn't have great vision. That's why a former linebacker is running for twice as many yards per carry. That's why a former linebacker has passed him on the depth chart. That's why Edwards has never been the #1 back over four seasons, except when the starter got injured.
We've been talking about Edwards being unable to break tackles/make people miss since at least 2022. We (je93 and I, among others) have mentioned he goes down too easy, he needs to get stronger, etc. You kept saying it "wasn't a problem." That we were "making it up."
And yet...here we are in 2024 with him as a senior, and he's not producing at a high level. He's #33 in the conference in yards per carry. He's #174 in the country (among running backs) in rushing grade, according to PFF. He's #395 in yards after contact per carry. He's #134 in forcing missed tackles.
These are objective stats and grades that support the (perhaps) subjective views of myself (and je93 and others), and you refuse to acknowledge the truth here. Unaffiliated commentators/broadcasters talk about it. Your credibility is sinking here. I honestly don't even know of anyone else who is still as firmly entrenched in Edwards's corner as you are.
" #395 in yards after contact per carry" ... so, not a Harball Back
DeleteGet creative and boost his draft stock. Team benefits, and Edwards benefits
"ThunderSeptember 28, 2024 at 7:33 PM"
DeleteI never argued Edwards was great at breaking tackles. I said he was a good all around back with some special traits (namely his receiving skills). I said he could be a good starter and...he has been.
And while I've defended Edwards from your criticisms multiple times, and been proven right multiple times (freshman year running between the tackles against OSU, sophomore year replacing Corum and thriving as a starter through the toughest part of the schedule, and junior year bounding back for a strong close to the season), I've also questioned why YOU predicted he'd have 1000 yard seasons the last two years. I did not think he would in either season. You haven't explained why you go back and forth between criticizing Edwards for everything besides his speed and pass catching and then.... predicting outsized success.
And since you want to talk about my analysis of "it's not a problem" still isn't a problem. RB is in great shape. Mullings looks great. Edwards looks good too. It's not a problem at all. Mullings has outplayed Edwards because Mullings is far better than I expected.
I have admitted to underestimating Mullings several times before and I will do it again here. On that I was wrong. I thought he was unexceptional, something like Tavierre Dunlap or Ben Hall or Karan Higdon. I thought he could be fine, adequate, a guy you can throw in there and plow with as a pairing with Edwards. But I admit I was wrong -- he is much more than that. Yesterday for example he juked a guy (missed tackle, not a broken tackle) one on one at the LOS and made a gain out of that. Last year he earned my respect by stealing away some snaps from Corum/Edwards -- not many but taking ANY from them was an impressive feat. This year he has won the starting job by outplaying Edwards and I tip the cap to him. He is a bigger more agile version of Deveon Smith, and as you know I'm a fan of Deveon Smith. Mullings is cut from the same cloth but better!
That doesn't make Edwards a problem. Edwards is an excellent player and remains a key piece of the offense.
Lmao, someone is BIG MAD
DeleteFootball is nuanced Lank. If you're going to call someone dumb, you should at least learn this game to understand that the points I brought up are all related
YOU are dodging, liar. Look at the questions I asked ... I answered them numbnuts!
Poor attempt at deflecting; so it's still your turn .... I'm waiting Lank!
#outsmarted
#n0tBuIlTf0rThIs
@jeLLLLy
DeleteDodging again. You were challenged to define the thing you said was easy and simple. Now it's nuanced. LOL
I asked you for a definition and you gave 3 things. What if it's 1 of 3? What if it's 2? Can you measure all 3 or are you still just trying to justify your Al Bundy emotions by a bunch of gobblygook?
You can't do even the simple thing you said was easy. I've tried to help you out even. LOL.
I'll just remind you what you wrote.
""more carries below YPC than at or above."
How'd that go?
You got destroyed. #2ooDuMb
I'll give you another chance. Let me know
Delete"YOU are dodging, liar. Look at the questions I asked ... I answered them numbnuts!"
"someone is BIG MAD"
Yes jelly you answered your own questions. But you dodged mine.
Delay tactic ... but I get it, you've been outsmarted (again)
DeleteIt's easy to answer, AND I DID. All carries by Edwards were listed. The result was, he got benched
You know this, because it's right up there ... you want quotes, you get quotes. You want data, you get data ... but it's all a delay tactic
Your turn liar ... $1 says it's another dodge ...
#predictable
#tooeasy
#outsmarted
#n0tBuIlTf0rThIs
You're stalling ... but I get it, you've been outsmarted (again)
DeleteNuanced in that there's more than one way to look at it. You have a history of crying about YPC, so I included other data points. It's easy to answer, AND I DID. All carries by Edwards were listed. The result was, he got benched (HALF the snaps as our new & improved RB1)
You know this, because it's right up there ... you want quotes, you get quotes. You want data, you get data ... but it's all a delay tactic
Your turn liar ... $1 says it's another dodge ...
#n0tBuIlTf0rThIs
@ Lank 11:33 a.m.
DeleteI have explained it before. You just don't like the answer:
I predicted Edwards to have a lot of yards, because that's what Michigan backs do. Especially starters. He was the expected starter this year, and guys like Haskins, Corum, Higdon, etc. have all produced when given the opportunity. You have to go back almost a decade - to 2015, Jim Harbaugh's first year - to find a starter who has a lower yards per carry than Edwards's current 4.37. Coincidentally, that was one of your other favorite guys in De'Veon Smith.
Of course, Edwards probably doesn't even fit in that category (as a starter), I guess, because he's lost the #1 RB job to Mullings.
You keep saying Edwards is a good back, but again, the numbers don't support your conclusion.
Let's put this a different way:
If Edwards played for Illinois or Indiana and was putting up the numbers he is for Michigan over the past year or so, you wouldn't be saying "he's a good back" or defending him so vociferously. You wouldn't bristle at my claims that he goes down too easy, doesn't have good vision, is boom/bust, etc. You would just shrug your shoulders and be like, "Yeah, he has home run speed, but he's not doing anything special."
Inevitably, he's going to hit another home run or two before the end of the season, and we will all be wowed by how fast he runs. And in the meantime, there will be a ton of runs where he plows into the backside of a lineman, misses a hole, gets tackled easily by a less athletic safety/linebacker, etc. He's been doing it for 3.5 years. If the light were going to come on, it would have come on by now.
@Thunder
DeleteWould you like a list of MIchigan RB1s that don't rush for 1000 yards? It's a long list. But not as long as the list of RB2s that don't rush for a 1000 yards. You predicted that for Edwards when he was projected to RB1 and when he was projected to RB2. I disagreed. Both times.
You don't have to go back very far to remember RBs and seasons that didn't produce a 1000 yard runner. I believe there was only 1 between Hart in 2007 and Higdon in 2018?
So if the YPC are subpar...then the 1000 yard season won't be there. And yet you predicted it anyway. How many carries did you think Blake Corum's backup was going to get? How many carries did you think the guy sharing RB duties with Kalel Mullings was going to get?
Kind of ironic when I've been the one defending his skillet and his role on the team, while you do nothing but criticize Edwards, that you go out and predict fanciful 1000 yard seasons anyway.
Like - you watched last year and you assumed Edwards was going to outproduce Mullings? You watched last year and you talk ALL THE TIME about YPC and you went on and on and on about how Edwards produced a subpar YPC and then....1000 yard prediction anyway?
You watched Edwards for 3 years. You saw Edwards last year and saw
"I predicted Edwards to have a lot of yards, because that's what Michigan backs do."
So I guess you don't think RBs matter much eh? Just throw anyone back there, even if they can't break tackles and lack vision and so on. 1000 yard season anyway, no problemo. LOL
PS
I wouldn't be talking about Edwards if he played for Illinois or Indiana. RBs don't matter enough to care about the opposition's.
@jelllly
DeleteSo what's the metric? You didn't answer.
Actually you did: """more carries below YPC than at or above.""
If you want to stick to that one you can. But go ahead take your L because then Mullings, Corum, Haskins and everyone else is boom/bust too.
You failed there but I'm a nice guy and willing to give you a second chance. Take your L or quit. It's up to you.
So what's the metric for boom/bust?
@ Lank 7:09 p.m.
DeleteYou don't have to be a great player to run for 1,000 yards. Michigan is playing like 14 games a year when you include the Big Ten Championship game and a CFP/bowl game. That's like 72 yards per game. Karan Higdon wasn't great and ran for 994 yards and 1178 yards in his two years as a starter.
There were 45 players in 2023 with 1,000+ yards. There were 39 in 2022. There were 53 in 2021.
You're conflating two things. I predicted he would get 1,100 yards in 2024. I never said I expected him to be a great running back.
metricS numbnuts ...
Delete- what was Edwards YPC? (5.3)
- how many carries went over his YPC? two (the TD and a 6yd run)
- what happened on the other carries? a 5yd carry (tripped on grass); two 4yd carries (I'll take it!); four 3yd carries (none for a 1st Down); and then four more runs for 2yds OR LESS (inc two carries for negative yards)
- what was the result? benched, for a non Boom-Bust RB1
Nuanced in that there's more than one piece of data & performance we can look at, but easy to answer ... both can be true ... Last week we saw a Boom, and far too many busts. You can pretend you don't know this or that I didn't provide the raw data Saturday ... just emrace your name of LyinLank!
*as predicted, you continue to dodge. You owe me $1, which I will accept in the form of a donation to TTB for your foolishness
#n0tBuiLtf0rtHiS
@Thunder
Delete"You're conflating two things. I predicted he would get 1,100 yards in 2024. I never said I expected him to be a great running back."
No I'm not. Nobody said a thing about greatness in this thread.
You are talking about Edwards' many flaws and the ONLY good thing you've mentioned about his rushing ability is speed.
I'm saying that it sounds like you don't think Edwards is a good player. How many not good players are rushing for 1000 yards.
Oh and don't gloss over that you ALSO predicted he would run for 1000 yards when he was a backup. That's how good you USED to think Edwards was after watching him for 2 years.
@Jellllly
DeletemetricS numbnuts ...
- what was Mullings YPC? (9.4)
- how many carries went over his YPC? two (the 53 yd TD and the 63 yd run)
- what happened on the other carries? 15 carries for 43 yards, 2.9 ypc. 9 of those for 2 yards or less.
- what was the result? Boom-Bust RB1
That post is putting on my jelly hat.
DeleteEXPOSED
By jellly's definition, Mullings is a boom/bust back.
Want me to run through a Corum game? You'll find the same thing.
Hassan Haskins? You guessed it - also a boom/bust back by Jelllly's definition.
#outsmarted? or just #2ooDuMb
I'd like to take credit here but it's the latter.
@ Lank 5:25 p.m.
DeleteThis is where I have to almost put replies on repeat because you refuse to understand it the first time:
Michigan starting running backs run for ~1,000 yards more often than not. There were four 1,000-yard seasons in Harbaugh's nine years and one 994-yard season, plus 991 yards from Edwards in 2022.
These are not outlandish predictions, nor are they rare occurrences. About one-third of teams have 1,000-yard rushers on a yearly basis.
Do you recognize the names Abram Smith, Sean Tucker, Bryant Koback, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Brad Roberts, B.J. Baylor, Charles Williams, Mataeo Durant, DeAndre Torrey, Marquez Cooper, Jay Ducker, Ellis Merriweather, Nate Noel, Blake Thomas, Greg Bell, Xazavian Valladay, Dylan McDuffie, and Pat Darwo III?
No? They're just some of the 1,000-yard rushers from 2021.
@Lank, you're still missing the nuance ... ironically its while talking about dumb ... not all yards are equal, are they?
DeleteAs stated yesterday, Edwards didn't get us a 1st Down; even his 4yd carry was on 2nd & 11 (keeping us behind the sticks)
Mullings gets us 2yds when we needed 2; 1yd when we needed 1; 3yds when we needed 2; 2yds when we needed 1; 1yd (TD) when we needed 1 ... that's three first downs and the go ahead TD on short yardage plays only one of them was trusted with #trustthecoaches ... he's a Harball RB, but Mullings also had twice as many explosives
This is nuanced in that there's many ways to look at the data, but easy to understand why both PFF and the MGo UFR agree with me
One is a Boom-Bust who was benched, while the latter is the bell cow who can get the explosives AND break tackles for the down & dirty inches that separate wins & losses (not unlike Haskins & Corum)
#youstillowe$1
#outsmarted
#n0tBuiLtf0rThiS
I've asked you to define the simple thing. You did it and when you did it, it defined Edwards, Mullings, Corum and Haskins ALL as boom/bust.
DeleteThank you for making my point for me. Edwards is a not anymore boom/bust than anyone else. The accusation has no merit. You have no evidence to differentiate any amount of boom/bust characteristic from Edwards to another back. You tried. You failed.
You can't define it. You said you could, but you failed.
Just say it: "I can't back up my opinions with evidence because I'm not built for this". You'll feel better being honest with yourself.
So now, tail between legs, you want to talk about nuance? LOLOLOL. The king of black/white thinking calls for nuance. LOLOLOL
Must be playing a lot of dodgeball at your Stockton rec center.
Hold this one up extra high.
@Thunder
Delete"Michigan starting running backs run for ~1,000 yards more often than not. There were four 1,000-yard seasons in Harbaugh's nine year"
So 5 out of 9 years RB1 didn't get to 1000 yards. Starting RBs, more often than not, do NOT run for 1000 yards. Tilde, no tilde, most RBs don't hit 1000 yards under Harbaugh and it was even more rare in the years preceding Harbaugh to hit 1000 yards.
So let's be honest here. You projected Edwards to outproduce a typical Harbaugh RB1 season....twice. Once when he was RB2, coming off a stellar end to 2022. Then, again, when he was projected to RB1, coming off a less impressive season you strongly criticized in 2023, as a backup.
I agree that predicting RB1 to get to 1000 yards is not "outlandish"...
For a starting RB who you think is really good and bound for the NFL, it's optimistic but not outlandish. It IS outlandish for a guy who you don't think is very good AND/OR for a guy who is a backup or splitting carries.
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I don't think predicting 1000 yards in 2024 is outlandish, but I still disagreed with it -- even though I think Edwards is a really good RB. You....do not think that. You watched Mullings and Edwards all year in 2023. I did too, so I assumed that Edwards would share the workload with Mullings, Orji, and others. I didn't expect a repeat of the end of 2022 workload when there was (functionally) 1 back they trusted.
I do think predicting 1000 yards in 2023 is outlandish and I STRONGLY disagreed with it in the preseason -- even though I thought Edwards was a good RB. I didn't expect a repeat of the end of 2022 workload because Corum was healthy in 2023. You never explained if Edwards was going to get to 1000 with a heavier than expected workload or a bigger than expected YPC. Either way it was unrealistic.
Here's a few quotes after you watched Edwards first 2 seasons.
https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/2023/08/2023-season-countdown-13-donovan-edwards.html
"Edwards was a borderline 5-star prospect in the class of 2021, and he has not disappointed"
" Edwards, who has now proven himself on some of the biggest stages of college football"
"While Corum does return and Edwards may be a nominal "backup," he should get plenty of opportunities"
"Edwards is an excellent back in his own right, with game-breaking receiving abilities and big-play speed. There's a good chance that this will be his final season in Ann Arbor, so let's enjoy his wearing a winged helmet as much as we can."
A few games into 2023 and all the quotes above were in the trash can.
A few games into 2024 and again the preseason quotes are in the trash can.
"Edwards should be the unquestioned #1 back"
"He got up to 214 pounds by the spring (now listed at 212) after being right around 200 earlier in his career, and the added weight/strength showed in the spring when he seemed a little more willing to try to bring the contact to defenders. "
But hey - maybe Edwards will get to 1000 yards yet. He's at 258 already and hasn't even broken many big runs yet. We both agree they are coming.
@ Lank 3:58 p.m.
DeleteYou're quibbling about 6-9 yards over an entire season. Over the span of about 13 games, that's about 0.5 yards per game. It's just kind of a silly argument.
Michigan had 6 running back seasons of 990+ rushing yards in his 9 years.
Again, I'm getting a little tired of the running back arguments. This post is two weeks old by now. I'm going to move on.
Lank, you're not contesting the facts, data & assessment I provide, just denying ...
DeleteI did define it
I did provide stats: raw data (ea carry), as well as results
I did provide a contrast, in that even Mullings shorter carries yielded great results: multiple 1st Downs & a game winning TD
Nuance was discussed ahead, and you pretended the topic cannot be nuanced & easy ... but it is, and I demonstrated as much
You can deny it, due to ignorance or lack of integrity ... I think it's the latter, but maybe it's both
You lost. Not smart enough. Not built for this. Too small. Inferior
@Thunder
DeleteEdwards got to 900 yards in 2022 only because Corum got hurt. Again -- if you were predicting a Corum injury your prediction would have made sense, but you didn't.
@jeLLLLy93
You gave criteria. I showed you how using it concludes that Mulling is boom/bust. And Haskins and Corum too.
No denials. Just facts.
By your criteria. Mullings is boom/bust.
Not even you believe you.
Hold it up.
@ Lank 5:58 p.m.
DeleteLet me refresh your short memory:
In 2022 Michigan ran Blake Corum into the ground. Starting with the Big Ten schedule, he averaged 27 carries per game until his body gave out against Illinois. Then he missed basically the final three games of the year (except a couple plays when he tried to go against OSU).
Lots of people - including me - were wondering why Michigan was giving Corum so many carries and worried he wouldn't hold up. And he didn't hold up.
So going into 2023, some of us knew that Michigan shouldn't run Corum into the ground again. And they didn't. He only reached 27 carries one time (as opposed to 5 times in 2022), and that was in game #11 against Maryland. He ended up with 11 more carries in 2023, but that was spread over 15 games (17.2 carries per game) instead of getting 227 carries over 10 full games in 2022 (22.7 carries per game).
So if Corum was going to get about 5 fewer carries per game, it would make sense for Edwards to get ~5 more carries per game. And if Edwards got 5 more carries per game while staying healthy for the entire season, 1000 yards wouldn't have been a huge stretch.
Edwards didn't need to start in 2023 to have a chance to get to 1,000 yards. He just needed to stay healthy (he missed 3 games in 2022), pick up some of Corum's load, and produce at a decent rate.
He didn't do those things. This is obvious. Hindsight is 20/20.
But the rationale was there. Corum needed to run the ball less (he did!) for Michigan to be successful down the stretch (they were!). The real surprise/disappointment was that Edwards played poorly for most of the season.
And now I'm sure we're back to the point where you're going to say Edwards didn't play poorly, even though stats (the #403 rushing grade out of halfbacks in 2023!) and analysts and such disagree.
LIAR: you addressed part of the criteria
DeleteI easily countered, using data & impact from the two players behind the same OL & against the same defense. I can do this because 1) I know the game; and 2) you're a liar
Mullings is ascending to the same level as Haskins & Corum: leading an elite run game. Forcing defenses & defenders to commit. They can only hope to limit his impact, but they don't stop it. He can & has get that last 1, 2 or 3yd run for 1st Downs & TDs ... or hit a Homerun. Every. Single. Game
With Edwards, we don't have that. We have the occasional BOOM, and lots of Bust. Last year it was two of fifteen games (PennSt & Wash), this year it's been one of five (ArkSt)
just face it: you're not able to keep up ... dodging, lying & pretending you've made a point is all you have left
#n0tbUiLtf0rtHiS
wordsalad. You can't define boom/bust. Like always, it's about your emotions. You gave an objective criteria ""more carries below YPC than at or above." and.... it got exposed.
DeleteYou failed.
Surprised? Nobody
I offered you another shot and you duck, dodge, deflect.
Surprised? Nobody.
Back to name-calling and projecting.
I'll say it again. Name your criteria. It's simple right? Or is it nuanced?
Either way, please, have another go! I'm all ears. Patient. Waiting humbly for you to prove me wrong (well really just prove yourself right, but prove me wrong in calling your BS out).
I'm sure you'll fail the test again. You can't do it. You aren't built for.
Hold it up.
@Thunder
DeleteWow. Where to start.
Point 1. The assertion that Corum got hurt because Michigan used him to much is highly highly dubious.
Injuries are part of football - we've had Loveland, Morris, Morgan all miss games this year already, without getting a heavy workload. We've had Ty Isaac get hurt without much workload either. Rod Moore is out for the year without playing a snap. etc.
Corum had 240 carries as unquestioned RB1 in 2022. In 2023 he had MORE workload - 258 carries. Haskins had 270 in 2021. Higdon had 224 in 2018.
I'm not going to go into a deep dive on per game carries in conference play I'll just note that his high number of carries (30 and 33) was also unexceptional. Chris Perry once had 51. Mike Hart had 43. Corum's usage in 2022 was nothing unusual or concerning, especially since he got only 34 carries over the entire non-conference schedule.
Point 2: Expecting Edwards to get 5 more carries a game is dubious.
""So if Corum was going to get about 5 fewer carries per game, it would make sense for Edwards to get ~5 more carries per game.""
Multiple issues here including things you have made a point of discussing. Mullings was expected (by you) to take on a significant role in the backfield, per your comments in the countdown. And Edwards was noted (by you) as a guy who thrives in passing more than running. So expecting 5 carries to just shift directly from Corum to Edwards doesn't track your own logic.
Far more reasonable to assume that Edwards role as a backup in 2023 would look a lot like his role as a backup in 2022. Which it did. Edwards as Corums backup averaged 28 snaps in Big 10 play in 2022 and 25 in 2023. Edwards averaged 9 carries per game as a backup in 2022 and 8 in 2023. Very close to the same.
But let's play this out. If Edwards carries HAD went up by 5 he would have averaged 14 carries per game as a backup in 2023. Almost double what he averaged as a backup in 2022.
Over 15 games, that would have been a record setting 210 carries for a backup RB. Edwards had almost 100 fewer (117) WHILE STARTING 3 GAMES in 2022. He had 70 carries as a backup, so this would have been 3 times as many backup carries as 2022. Corum had 144 in 2021. Haskins and Charbonnet split RB1/RB2 duties and had 121 and 149 in 2019.
Expecting a record breaking 210 carries was not a reasonable expectation. Regardless of whatever assumptions you made, this would have been exceeding Corum's 2021 workload by 50% and Edwards 2022 workload by 90%.
This is all with the best RB of our lifetimes at RB1.
Not impossible - but not reasonable. No.
Edwards was never getting over 200 carries.
That's literally never happened for a backup RB.
Point 3: Your math indicates that Edwards would have a big YPC.
Delete"if Edwards got 5 more carries per game while staying healthy for the entire season, 1000 yards wouldn't have been a huge stretch."
Let's pretend for a minute that Edwards WAS granted a heavy workload that got him to over 200 carries in 2023. Maybe Corum got injured or held out a few games, maybe Mullings wasn't as good as expected, maybe Michigan just decided to run more in 2023. 200 carries.
For 1050 yards, by 210 carries, you've got to average 5 YPC.
A huge stretch? No. Edwards averaged 5YPC in 2021 and better than that in 2022. Expecting 5 YPC is challenging over 200+ carries, but not unreasonable....if you think Edwards is really good.
Edwards averaged 4.2 YPC last year. I got a whole lot of "I told you so's" from you and jeLLy93 when he was averaging fewer than 4 YPC for most of the season. You ragged on Edwards lack of vision and lack of balance and lack of strength and lack of tackle breaking and on and on and on.... you always saw it, you always knew it, etc.
Yet, here you are (seemingly) saying you expected 5 YPC or more from Edwards in 2023 to get over 1000 yards.
So which is it -- were you impressed by Edwards running enough to expect 5YPC or more? Or did you always see a guy who would average closer to 4 YPC?
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If expectations are unreasonable, then the reaction when expectations aren't matched will also be unreasonable. (See 80% of 5-star recruits)
Donovan Edwards yards per carry from 2021-2022: 6.66
DeleteCarries needed at 6.66 yards per carry to reach 1,000 yards in 2023: 150
Some carry totals for backup RBs during Harbaugh era: 144, 140, 135, 121, 119.
So yeah, I thought the 5-star backup running back might garner about 6 more carries than had previously been done during the Harbaugh era. Again, 6 carries spread over an entire season is approximately 0.5 carries per game.
My prediction was wrong. We all know that now.
Your smoking gun is that I was 6 carries (150 instead of 144) and 9 yards (1,000 instead of 991) off of what had previously been accomplished.
Pardon me if I'm not too concerned.
@Lank, I did define it. It's all up there
DeleteI provided a litmus test with MULTIPLE points, not just YPC .. you cherry picking and ignoring the rest YPC is delicious considering the years you argued against it
I did provide data, first for Edwards then for Mullings - in the same game, again the same defense, behind the same OL ... where's your counter? Go ahead, argue against the championship RBs of Haskins & Corum, like YOU offered
Pretend it didn't happen. It's who you are! LyinLank
@Thunder
Deleteso you expected a boom/bust back who lacks balance and can't break tackles to average 6.6 YPC?
This where the logic falls apart. One minute you are saying this guy is lacking and has always been lacking and everyone can see it. The next minute you expect him to put up elite production at high volume.
"Some carry totals for backup RBs during Harbaugh era: 144, 140, 135, 121, 119."
These aren't totals for backups. Edwards had 119 carries while starting 3 games in 2022, where he got most of his carries as the primary back. Haskins had 119 carries because he started 6 games.
You're just listing out the #2 guy in snaps even though that guy was often a starter either due to injury or performance. You were not predicting Edwards would start over Corum in 2024.
It's not about the prediction being wrong it's about you flip flopping on how you see Edwards depending on which way the wind blows.
@ Lank 5:42 p.m.
DeleteThis comment is actually a self-own and you don't realize it. You keep bashing me for predicting that Donovan Edwards would actually improve and, you know, start breaking some tackles or figure out how to read and set up his blocks.
But you're absolutely right.
I shouldn't have predicted he would improve from 2022 to 2023, and he showed on the field that he didn't, because he wasn't good in 2023. So thank you for confirming that my prediction of improvement was incorrect. At least we're now all on the same page that he wasn't good in 2023.
I'm glad we had this talk.