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PWO QB FTW. Well, it was a mild surprise when it was announced that former walk-on Davis Warren was named the starting quarterback for the season opener over Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle. Orji had received most of the hype in the off-season, and Tuttle is the most experienced. But Tuttle has been dealing with injuries and soreness, so he wasn't really an option. Rumors started coming out a couple days before the game that Warren would be the guy. He finished 15/25 for 118 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception and graded out as Michigan's #4 offensive player (69.7 on Pro Football Focus). Overall, I thought Warren was mostly accurate. He overthrew a deep shot to Tyler Morris, and he underthrew Fredrick Morris on an open post route that could have been a touchdown but turned into an interception. There were a lot of checkdowns and short throws, probably by design to make things easy for Warren in his first start. But overall, I thought Warren looked composed and accurate.
Hit the jump for more.
Alex Orji is certainly a good runner. Orji played just 9 snaps compared to Warren's 53, and Orji did finish the day as the #5 offensive player (65.2). But he only had 2 passing attempts: a 3-yard completion for a TD to Donovan Edwards and a similar rollout attempt that he turfed in ugly fashion. He finished 1/2 passing for 3 yards and 1 touchdown, and with 5 rushing attempts for 32 yards. Sometimes the Fresno State defense inexplicably forgot about the QB who's known as a freak athlete but hasn't shown that he can pass. And the jury's still out on whether he will be able to figure out the passing accuracy issue.
Is there a running back controversy? I guess I'm perhaps known for "hot takes" when it comes to running back roles, but again, it's worth noting the discrepancy in production by Donovan Edwards and not-Donovan Edwards. Edwards got ranked as a top-50 player in NCAA '25 and landed on the cover of the video game because of some big plays he produced against Ohio State in 2022 and Washington in 2023, but this was another forgettable performance on the ground. He finished with 11 carries for 27 yards (2.45 yards/carry) and looked less able than RB2 Kalel Mullings (15 carries, 92 yards, 6.1 yards/carry) to find the holes and make people miss. Mullings was the #3 offensive player (70.2) while Edwards finished at #12 (60.4).
At least Michigan has Colston Loveland. Other than one drop on a slant route, Loveland was outstanding, finishing as the #1 offensive player (89.4) with 8 catches for 87 yards and 1 touchdown. He also had some key blocks and his touchdown reception was key in helping Michigan separate from the Bulldogs in the second half. Opponents have a tough choice on how to cover Loveland, because he's too big for safeties and too fast for linebackers. Michigan moved him all over the place with 27 snaps as an in-line tight end, 10 snaps in the slot, and 9 lined up as a wide receiver. The other options as receiving targets were pretty underwhelming, though that could have changed with more accurate deep balls to Moore and/or Morris. It was probably not a great sign that Michigan started walk-on receiver Peyton O'Leary, whom I have been "hyping up" as a potential rotation player for a few years . . . but the defending national champions shouldn't be starting a walk-on at receiver. And at quarterback. Both of those things are a little bit alarming. O'Leary finished as the lowest graded offensive player for the game.
Offensive line mehness. Well, if anyone had lightly recruited former defensive lineman Dominick Giudice penciled in as the opening day starter earlier this off-season, kudos to you! Giudice was a defensive tackle earlier in his career before switching to offensive guard a couple seasons ago. I didn't even know he was playing center until about two weeks into camp, and then he beat out Greg Crippen and Raheem Anderson. I have to think Anderson might have been dealing with an injury - even though I pegged him as a backup, anyway - but Crippen has been passed up by Olu Oluwatimi and Drake Nugent the past two years. Now he's been passed by a former defensive tackle. Giudice did get yanked at one point and didn't have a great game, but he was crushing people on occasion and finished #9 on offense (64.5) while Crippen's nine snaps got him graded at #17 (55.2). I thought Myles Hinton played well at left tackle (#2 at 73.2) and redshirt freshman Evan Link (#8, 64.9) was adequate, but the interior didn't get much movement at all and the PFF grades bore that out.
Defensive line awesomeness. On the flip side of that mediocre offensive line showing, the defensive line was great. I thought Rayshaun Benny had a great game, and that indeed turned out to be the case, according to PFF (#3 on defense, 79.8) and traditional stats (5 tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack). Edge Josaiah Stewart (#1, 91.3) had 5 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks. And defensive end Derrick Moore (#2, 90.9) was making a lot of things happen. Redshirt junior Ike Iwunnah finally made his Michigan debut after sitting on the bench for three years, and he got more snaps (4) than Trey Pierce (3), so maybe that shows the pecking order for the Cam Goode role for this season. For all the hype about T.J. Guy in the off-season, he finished #14 with a grade of 61.6 and had a couple stupid penalties, including a roughing the passer penalty that extended a late drive and then a facemask/horse collar tackle penalty. That doesn't mean he's not talented, but he needs to grow up quickly because Michigan doesn't have a ton of capable players at the edge positions.
Jaishawn Barham is a physical specimen. Linebacker is always a tough position to grade out, because they have to play in space against the run and the pass. And a lot depends on how the guys up front get handled. Barham didn't grade out that well (#18, 59.7) but he scared the crap out of 5'11" Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene a few times and finished with 2 tackles and 1 quarterback hurry. While the stats aren't quite there, Michigan's ability to threaten quarterbacks with his blitzes up the middle and/or off the edge should be helpful, especially when the backup edges need to rotate out. Stewart, Moore, and the defensive tackles are going to be able to get after the passer, but Michigan needs to find a couple complementary pass rushers.
I like the defensive backs. Michigan is in a good spot at defensive back, at least with the starters. Will Johnson got beaten a few times but had an 86-yard pick six to seal the game. I think he was being overly aggressive at times because of the competition, but that pick six will be played on highlight reel after highlight reel when he gets picked in the first round next spring. Jyaire Hill (#5, 71.6) and Aamir Hall (#12, 65.4) acquitted themselves pretty well at the other corner spot, and Hall's bugaboo was his tackling (26.9 grade), which might improve as he adjusts to FBS competition. Ja'Den McBurrows (#23, 52.6) finished last on defense and allowed the touchdown pass, where he was just lined up way too far off the receiver and allowed too much space to catch and run. Michigan did that with Mike Sainristil at times and the defense was able to recover, but McBurrows isn't Sainristil, who was an excellent tackler.
Dominic Zvada might be awesome. The real separation through the first three quarters of the game came from Arkansas State transfer kicker Dominic Zvada, who made 45-, 53-, and 55-yard field goals to put Michigan up 16-10 until Loveland and Johnson's late touchdowns. If Zvada wasn't hitting, that would have been a much scarier game. That was an incredible debut. I ranked Zvada #10 in the season countdown because I think he might keep Michigan's season afloat at times.
What does this all mean for Michigan? It's just one week, but we can start to put some of the pieces together. Players are going to improve, and some are going to get benched. The quarterback position is the most important, and there's not much from Saturday night to make us think that's ever going to be a strength in 2024. I do think it's feasible that Warren ends up as a solid game manager type, and Orji is a solid change-of-pace/Wildcat QB. We've all heard the mantra "If you have two quarterbacks, then you don't have a quarterback" but I think two players with distinct roles can work to an extent. I would be very much against a team using two quarterbacks with similar skill sets, but using Warren as the "every down" QB who can hand off, pass, and move in the pocket and then Orji as the gadget/short yardage/goal line guy can work. Ultimately, I think the offense is going to limit the ceiling of this 2024 team, though. There are some good pieces like Loveland, Edwards, and Mullings, but when O'Leary, FCS transfer C.J. Charleston, and redshirt freshman Kendrick Bell - a position-switcher from quarterback - are playing lots of snaps, there's just a dearth of national championship-caliber talent.
I was not able to watch the game, but I saw some chatter about the receivers doing Warren no favors with some drops. Someone suggested five of the incompletions were catchable. If that's true, and they were caught as expected, then Warren is 20/25 and there's a different conversation here. But I don't know, because the YouTube highlight videos don't tend to show incompletions.
ReplyDeleteLoveland and Oleary had clear drops
DeleteMullings - not a known pass catcher - didn't recognize the coverage and get his head turned around in time to see a fastball go right by him
Moore could have slowed down and played the ball, rather than waiting like a Punt Returner, but QB has to put that ball on the EZ letters
Morris maybe could have sped up or done better to track the ball, but Warren overthrew him
The first two were clear drops. The last three are football. Everyone has to do better
je93 kind of accounted for some of the drops/misses, so I won't go into each one. Ultimately, every QB suffers from drops/poor routes, so I don't like to conflate "on target" attempts with "he should have been 20/25." Because for a fair comparison, you have to go through and account for the drops that J.J. McCarthy and Cade McNamara and other QBs suffered to have a good idea of what a completion percentage should be.
DeleteUltimately, the receivers not named Loveland didn't help out Warren a great deal, and he also had a couple errant throws. For example, on the deep pass to Morris, I felt like Warren put it on too much of a line and I thought Morris slowed down coming out of his break.
I'm surprised at crippen's grade. He came in and we moved the ball right away, leading to the first FG. Then he came in for the 7o+ yard drive ending with the Loveland TD. Meanwhile, Guidice was in there for the worst of the night
ReplyDeleteBarham looked like a beast ... Dude is fast and aggressive! The stats will come sooner or later
I didn't like the Warren grade. And even though I've been skeptical about the WR all along, I don't know what Moore, Morgan or Morris can do if QB1 doesn't look their way. Frustrating indeed
What are your thoughts on the rotations? It looked like everyone and their mom got in, but we didn't bother with extra OL against their tiny Front
I've said before, I don't understand the mechanics of PFF ... two things in particular: (1) how they can possibly grade every player for every snap for all the games they do, and get the grades out so quickly; and (2) how they can maintain anything close to consistency of grading across people doing that role. To be honest, I suspect a good deal of what they do is based on how they "feel" about each player based on watching the game, but I doubt they watch each play 22 times to closely observe how each player did on each play.
DeleteI think Crippen came in at a time when Fresno State was probably getting worn down. I think it might be a little unfair to give him credit when we knew that Fresno had a smaller defensive line. It's kind of like bringing in a bulldozer of a running back late in the game and giving him credit for breaking tackles, but it's really about the defense being too tired/beaten up to make tackles. I'm not saying Crippen didn't do a good job, but Michigan typically beats people up in the second half, and I think that you might be attributing the team's superior strength/conditioning to Crippen.
DeleteMoore was only on the field for 3 snaps and got targeted once, so he needs to worry about getting on the field ahead of O'Leary before he can worry about being targeted. I think Morris did fine. We have to keep in mind that Michigan's leading receivers last year had 48, 47, and 45 catches, so that's about 3 receptions per game over a 15-game season. Morris caught 3 passes for 15 yards. Obviously, Loveland is on pace right now to beat that average, but this is just what happens at Michigan. It's not a receiver-friendly offense.
I would have to go back and look at previous years, but anecdotally, I believe Michigan didn't really do the extra OL thing a ton until they got into the meat of the schedule. I'm not sure Michigan felt the need to unveil that package against Fresno State. My guess is that we might start to see a sixth offensive lineman against Texas or one of the other solid teams in the next few weeks.
I didn't really have a problem with the rotations. I kind of wanted to see MORE rotation with the defensive linemen, because I don't want Mason Graham getting worn out. The only one that was questionable to me was Myles Pollard, because I don't think he's very good...but I guess he's CB4 on the outside behind Johnson, Hall, and Hill. I kind of thought Keshaun Harris might be in that spot. I have yet to see Pollard do anything that makes me think he's ready to play.
1) I thought Crippen played better than Guidice. In any case, I do not think either of them are anywhere near the level at which Michigan’s center has been playing in recent years.
ReplyDelete2) Sometimes I wonder if we can just play our best players. Warren at QB. Orji & Mullings at RB. Donovan Edwards at WR. Spread out the field. Does having a RB who can throw give a team a big advantage? Never seen it before…
3) I am disappointed with the guards play. They are supposed to be the strength of the OL, given that the two starters hv locked down their spots for some time. Forget the QB and WR, if the OL does not improve quickly, we can write off this season despite having potentially 4 first round picks.
1. I think Crippen might have LOOKED better because he played in the second half when Fresno was starting to get worn down. Crippen did some good things, but so did Giudice. I want to watch the game some more to keep more of an eye on the OL, so that's just based on the first watch.
Delete2. I think Edwards is best as kind of a chess piece to move around. I think it's pretty obvious at this point that Mullings has better instincts as a runner. He probably doesn't have the same explosiveness for big plays, but nobody can watch those two run and think Edwards has better vision or short area quickness.
3. I agree with the guards. I was particularly disappointed in El-Hadi's play since he's been around for three years and got hyped up. I don't think either one played terribly, but it probably just kind of moves expectations one notch down for this OL. Neither one is Keegan/Zinter and we just have to be okay with that, I guess.
Crippen's first insertion was in the 2Q. We moved the ball to the 3o, more progress than we had seen all night
DeleteI need an OL watch again too. My second look was for Warren & the WRs, and even that was a bit much. I'm guessing Guidice made obvious mistakes, but you're probably right in that the rest of his play was right in line with Crippen's
Interesting. I was thinking Crippen entered in the third quarter.
DeleteIf Mullings is RB1 or even getting the bulk of carries, he doesn't need to be our KR ... maybe Cabana can get it together and find a way to contribute
ReplyDeleteYeah, I agree there. I don't really like putting Mullings back there. I think that speaks to the lack of trusted athletes on the team. There should be at least one guy who can be trusted to return kicks who's not necessarily a key piece of the offense - like an A.J. Henning, a Giles Jackson, etc.
Delete1- Fresno is not a tomato can, they are like a mid level B10 team. A Maryland, a Minnesota when they are good.
ReplyDelete2- DE is DE. WHY! we keep trying to run him between the tackles is now way beyond me, like why are we putting Denard under center.
3- Warren was OK, I don't know if he was checking down on those throws or that was his first read, but the middle of the field was open all night. DW kept dumping it off to his WR at the LOS with 4 people waiting to tackle.
4- The Defense will go down as the best of time at Michigan IF they avoid injuries and IF the Offense doesn't put them in bad positions and IF wink doesn't go cover 0 for whatever reason.
5- This might be a little early for a Texas level game. Need 3-4 more games to sort things out.
Let it rip!
1. I agree about Fresno State. They're a decent program.
Delete2. I think it's necessary to run any back between the tackles, just like it's necessary to run any back outside the tackles. De'Veon Smith got an occasional toss/outside zone play just to keep defenses honest.
3. I think Warren was making some pre-snap reads based on coverage and going where he thought the receiver was going to be open. Honestly, I think he made good decisions MOST of the night. There were a couple bad decisions, but J.J. McCarthy made some bad decisions, too.
4. I hope this defense plays to that level. I don't think they will. They're going to be on the field more, and I don't think they have the depth to be THAT good.
5. I don't love the idea of playing Texas right now, either...but then again, Texas is also just in game two. They have things they need to work out also.
Nice detailed write up. The PFF grades are interesting data points and good for conversation.
ReplyDeleteIf Edwards is only getting 10-15 touches, they should have him return kickoffs.
I don't know if Edwards is the guy to return kicks. He doesn't have the short-area quickness and he's not aggressive enough. I think he would be nervous to get blown up.
DeleteSome kick returns are weaving horizontal affairs with lots of cuts but a lot of them are about finding a seam and running through it fast.
DeleteI haven't seen Don look nervous to take a hit yet in his career. He was criticized for seeking out contact too readily, if anything.
@ Lank 10:50 a.m.
DeleteYou and I have different assessments of Donovan Edwards's running skills and strengths. I'll just leave it at that.
I'm not sure what running skills and strengths you see. The analysis is mostly about production stats and various criticisms.
DeleteIn my mind his skills as a runner are acceleration and speed, but he's capable all around, as he showed as the primary back in late 2022.
@ Lank 1:08 p.m.
DeleteThe issues persist that have been issues for a few years. He's not patient, he doesn't have a jump cut in his arsenal, he goes down too easily on contact, he doesn't drive his feet, he doesn't break tackles, etc. He's very fast can obliterate safeties' angles in open space.
There's a reason he's averaging 2.5 yards/carry and that he was a ho-hum runner in 2023. It's not just luck. There's something he's doing or not doing that is giving him those stats. He was #480 in the country in Elusive Rating in 2023 among running backs. He was #424 in average yards after contact. Your ignoring these things doesn't make them untrue.
I've heard your criticisms many times, I'm trying to understand what strengths and skills you see in him as a runner.
DeleteIf you don't think he offers any why is he ranked in the top 10 again? I asked a similar question in the Countdown thread.
"He's very fast can obliterate safeties' angles in open space" is your answer ... and a quote!
DeleteThanks Jelly - that's impressive for you, but I assume speed isn't the only thing. We know Edwards isn't even the fastest on the team. MIght as well put guys like Eamon Dennis or Kechaun Harris at RB if it's about speed. Is Thunder saying anyone who is fast (like Giles Jackson) can produce 305 carries 1,689 yards at 5.5 ypc, regardless of their vision and ability to break tackles? I don't think Thunder is saying that. Furthermore, Thunder has repeatedly praised Edwards for gaining weight - which generally doesn't help speed.
DeleteSo again, it doesn't make sense if the only thing Edwards is good at is being fast.
Nobody said it was Lank ... but go ahead, make stuff up if that helps your feelings
Delete#n0tBuiLtFoRthIs
I don't see an answer.
DeleteOpen your eyes? Learn to read?
DeleteOr accept it: cognitive dissonance is real
With the exception of Loveland (and maybe Mullings/Edwards), is there anyone on offense who would start for Texas/Ohio/Oregon/Penn St?
ReplyDeleteDoes Zvada count as an offensive player?
DeleteEither way, the answer is Yes. Edwards, El Hadi, Priebe, and Hinton. None are obvious starters on ALL of them like Loveland (an all american who would start anywhere) but each of those teams has some holes or at least positions that are uncertain somewhere on offense.
Bredeson would also play a prominent role as a blocker on some of those teams though it would be hard to argue he's a starter.
Oregon and OSU both have strong OL overall but are filling gaps with portal guys. Oregon's OL struggled and was seen as the weak link in game 1. They are going to be using a transfer from Indiana (injured week 1) who doesn't seem to be as good as Priebe, for example. El Hadi is probably better than both.
PSU hasn't had a real strong OL in a while and turns over 3 guys. PSU had a camp battle at RT that includes a senior backup from Wisconsin which was not exactly a vintage Wisconsin OL either. He seems to have lost the battle which is a good sign for PSU but they're also rotating guys at guard still.
Miles Hinton is a no-brainer starter for PSU at OT, and probably elsewhere. He might even prove to be good enough to be a starter at every school on this list, but that's not a slam dunk yet.
Edwards is starting for Texas (especially with their injuries) and flip a coin with Singleton at PSU. Edwards is generally higher on draft boards, and has outperformed Singleton (albeit with better supporting cast) trough his career as a backup/rotational player.
And even at WR, I know we're not exactly loaded here, but PSU is leaning on a guy who couldn't hack it at OSU and is known primarily as a run blocker even though he has a big recruiting profile. He wasn't even targeted against WVU. Is Julian Fleming a better player than Tyler Morris? I wouldn't be so sure. Is Liam Clifford (the guy who started over Fleming but played fewer snaps)? Morris is probably starting there if you ask me. He might even be their WR1. I didn't include him because it's kind of speculative since Morris hasn't produced much yet through his first 2 seasons - but don't forget he's been backing up two vets who got drafted and playing in a TE-heavy run-heavy offense. He's not a future first round pick but getting to Ronnie Bell levels isn't out of the question.
Our offense looks worse than these elite teams because we lack elite talent at QB and we are thin at WR. Maybe we even lack above above average talent, by Big Ten standards at QB. We've made an identity out of running behind a powerful dominant OL and since we turn over the top 6 OL and best blocking TE, that's a lot of turnover to overcome. That's going to drag down some other good players (though apparently not Loveland). Still - our best individual linemen probably are better than these other teams' worst, and our OL as a whole is probably still better than PSU's.
Have heard very little mention of the terrible decision to not go for 2 on the last TD. That is dead wrong and pretty worrisome that Sherrone missed it. Hopefully something they get addressed, because 2-point decision protocols can be really impactful.
ReplyDeleteWRT to Crippen -- Probably not enough info to say. I wouldn't have had a big issue if the staff had left it as an open competition (kind of like OT spots last year and QB the year before) but I suspect that with Texas coming in week 2 they wanted to have things a little more solid than when it's just cupcakes. Given what we know, Crippen getting passed over twice and then losing the competition to guy who is bordering on walk-on status, I think the coaches see limitations in his game that is keeping him off the field. But I also wouldn't be shocked if he passed over Giudice at some point this year.