Michigan 27, USC 24

 

Kalel Mullings (image via ESPN)

A win is a win. I always try to keep things in perspective. Herm Edwards famously said "You play to win the game," and Michigan won the game. The Wolverines are 3-1 and their primary goals are still within play: win the Big Ten, beat your rivals, make the College Football Playoff, and win a national championship. Sometimes you win ugly, and sometimes you win pretty. It might help put things in perspective that star tight end Colston Loveland missed the entire game with an arm injury and Will Johnson was absent at the end of the game. This just happened to be an ugly victory, but oh well.

Hit the jump for more.

The Alex Orji offense is exactly what we thought it was going to be. I'll be the first to admit that I predicted Orji to be the starting quarterback with 1,900 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. It's right there in the season countdown post. But then the season started with Davis Warren getting the nod at QB, and Michigan didn't trust Orji to throw the ball more than about 3 yards downfield at any point in the first couple games. And this game looked exactly like a coaching staff who went into the second half of Penn State in 2023 and ran the ball 32 straight times. The issue with that was PSU had to respect J.J. McCarthy's passing ability, because he was on his way to being a first round NFL draft pick. Against USC, the Trojans had zero reason to respect the throwing ability of Orji, so they could commit their resources to stopping the run. Luckily, USC is soft. But this was as paltry a passing effort as you get in college football. Orji completed 7/12 passes for 32 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He ran 13 times for 33 yards, which is fine, but he's a bruising runner and not a breakaway guy. There are no Denard Robinson-like runs coming, just some 5- to 15-yarders on occasion.

Kalel Mullings is a beast. You watched the game. I don't even need to say this. After a 15-carry-, 153-yard, 2-touchdown performance against Arkansas State last week, Mullings ran 17 times for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns this week. He had a 53-yard breakaway touchdown to open the scoring, on which he showed incredible vision to squeeze through the hole. And then he had what will go down as a classic Michigan run when he dragged a defender five yards, spun out of a couple tackle attempts, and ran 63 yards before being pushed out of bounds. He also lined up in the I-formation and squeezed through a tiny hole made by backup tight end Zack Marshall and fullback Max Bredeson for the game-winning touchdown.

Donovan Edwards is still fast. For as much as I like Mullings as RB1 at this point, the speed of Donovan Edwards is impressive. With the ball in his hands, he just glides so smoothly in the open field. Mullings has been tracked down from behind a couple times in the past couple weeks, which is expected for someone who's 6'2" and 233 pounds. But there aren't many guys who have the extra gear of Edwards. He broke away for a 41-yard touchdown in this one, which would have been good from 300 yards because he has great long speed, and finished with 14 carries for 74 yards and the 1 score. I'll be interested to see how fast he times at the NFL Combine next year.

Michigan's OL made USC's DL look good. I think Michigan's offensive line has taken baby steps to getting better over the past couple weeks, but the linemen look downright confused sometimes by some pretty simple looks. For the second time in the past three games, right tackle Evan Link took a 0.0 in pass protection from PFF, and it was well deserved. He's absolutely lost when it comes to pass protection. He did have some nice blocks in the run game, but he came out of the wash as Michigan's lowest graded player, and starting center Dominick Giudice was just one spot ahead of him. It makes it even more impressive that Mullings can be this successful as a runner when two of his starting linemen are literally the two worst graded players on the entire offense.

Michigan's DL made USC's OL look silly . . . to start. Early in the game, the Michigan defensive linemen - especially Josiah Stewart - made USC's offensive line look totally overmatched. Stewart had 4 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks in this game. His speed and power are very impressive for someone listed at 6'1" and 245 pounds. He and bookend edge Derrick Moore were the top two graded players according to PFF, and they were living in USC's backfield. But depth, conditioning, and time of possession continue to catch up to Michigan. If the offense can't sustain drives, the starting defensive linemen get tired from being on the field. There was a notable difference as the game wore on how much USC's running game started to pick up. Both of USC's running backs ended up averaging 7.7 yards per carry, with starter Woody Marks going for a 65-yard touchdown on his way to a 100-yard day. On a side note . . . I really like Marks as a running back. He's tough, he can catch the ball, he can break tackles, and he made a really great play chasing down Michigan DT Kenneth Grant and ripping the ball out of Grant's hands after Grant recovered a fumble.

Michigan's secondary is alternately great and terrible. I don't know how to feel about Michigan's secondary at this point. Will Johnson had his second pick-six of the season with a 42-yard return on which he again jumped a short route, just like he did against Fresno State. Opposite corner Jyaire Hill graded out as Michigan's third-best defender with a score of 85.5. Nickel corner Zeke Berry ranked 20th out of 21 defenders despite making a couple very nice plays; at one point, though, he was lined up over the #2 receiver to the field and blitzed, leaving no one to cover his man for an easy Miller Moss-to-Jay Ford touchdown pass. There wasn't even a safety anywhere close to pick up Ford, so it was obviously a bust . . . but was Berry supposed to blitz, or was a safety not lined up correctly? My guess is that bust was on Berry. The combo of Hill and Makari Paige was beaten by a hole shot in cover two for a touchdown, and Paige played the ball terribly; he should have destroyed the ribs or raked the arms of Ja'Kobi Lane as the ball was completed, but neither happened and Paige was just way too slow reacting to the route. To top it off, Johnson ran up the tunnel at one point and did not return to the game.

What does this mean going forward? Michigan can't expect to go the rest of the season while throwing for 32 yards in a game, at least not if they want to win. The passing effort was abysmal, and so was the pass blocking. It should be somewhat embarrassing for the program that the best guys they can throw out there at quarterback are a walk-on who throws 3 interceptions against Arkansas State and a guy who's not allowed to throw the ball downfield. That being said, if Orji is the guy going forward - and these two quarterbacks aren't just stand-ins for the injured Jack Tuttle - then Michigan needs to incorporate more option elements with Orji. There needs to be a triple option package, more RPOs, etc. I was surprised to see the Wolverines come into this game with a game plan that didn't involve more opportunities to put defenders in a bind. It will probably be enough to beat Minnesota - which lost by two touchdowns to Iowa yesterday - but the better teams down the stretch are going to take advantage.