Preview: Michigan vs. Arkansas State

 

Jaylen Raynor (image via Land Grant Holy Land)

RUSH OFFENSE vs. ARKANSAS STATE RUSH DEFENSE
After two games, Michigan is in unfamiliar territory as the #101 rushing team in the country (114 yards/game) and the #87 team in yards per carry (4.0). The Wolverines are one of just eleven teams in the country with zero rushing touchdowns at this point. Michigan is also tied for #114 in rushing attempts per game (28.0), and that signifies the biggest issue. They have been unable to sustain drives, and Donovan Edwards (8) and Kalel Mullings (6) managed just 14 carries between them against Texas last week. That's not enough touches for two of the three best athletes on the offense. Pro Football Focus ranks Michigan as the #47 run blocking team in the country. LG Josh Priebe and LT Myles Hinton rank as the top two blockers on the line, but there have been some major struggles opening holes. Starting running back Donovan Edwards has managed just 68 yards on 19 carries (3.58 yards/carry) so far this year. Arkansas State is #115 in rushing defense (199 yards allowed/game) and they're #131 in yards allowed per carry (6.22). They've squeaked by Central Arkansas and Tulsa by a combined seven points, but they've given up 235 and 163 yards rushing, respectively, and 5 total rushing touchdowns. Senior hybrid safety Justin Parks (6'0", 197 lbs.) and fifth year senior LB Charles Willekes (6'1", 225) - a former Michigan State linebacker and the brother of former MSU DE Kenny Willekes - are tied for the team lead with 17 tackles, followed by fifth year senior LB Marvin Ham (6'1", 231), a Colorado transfer, with 14 stops. The starting defensive tackles are 288 and 294 pounds, and some of the key backups are in the 270s. If Michigan is going to get back to playing smashmouth football, it needs to start this week against an undersized and less talented defense.
Advantage: Michigan

Hit the jump for more.

PASS OFFENSE vs. ARKANSAS STATE PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is #113 nationally in pass offense (162.5 yards/game) and tied for #121 in yards per attempt (5.4). They're also #112 in passing efficiency. Any way you slice it, the production has been poor. QB Davis Warren is actually Michigan's highest graded offensive player, according to PFF; with a grade of 79.2, he's well ahead of even TE Colston Loveland (71.2). But Warren's passing efficiency hasn't been seen in a "starter" at Michigan since 2017 Brandon Peters, who was a third-stringer and only played after Wilton Speight (injury) and John O'Korn (poor production) ceded their spots. Warren has had some errant throws and has yet to push the ball down the field other than two attempts against Fresno State, one of which was intercepted. Loveland is the obvious #1 target (16 catches, 157 yards, 1 touchdown) with Semaj Morgan (7 catches, 53 yards, 1 TD) the second most productive guy so far. RT Evan Link got run over repeatedly last week and notched a 0.0 pass blocking grade from PFF, but rumors coming from insiders have the staff sticking with Link rather than turning to Jeffrey Persi or Andrew Gentry. Arkansas State is #70 in pass defense (198 yards allowed/game), #82 in yards allowed per attempt (6.8), and #70 in passing efficiency defense. Senior CB Justin Hodges (6'2", 184) and sophomore CB Dontay Joyner (6'0", 174) are the top two graded cover guys on the team other than Ham. The Red Wolves are tied for #97 in sacks (1.0 per game), with one coming from junior DE Jayden Jones (6'5", 262) and then half a sack each for Ham and redshirt freshman DT Ian Jeffries (6'4", 288). The best pass rushing grade comes from 5'11", 294 lb. DT Tim Hardiman, who had 7.0 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks last year but has yet to record a mark in either category this season. While one would think Michigan should have an advantage in this department, I'll start believing it when I see it.
Advantage: Arkansas State

RUSH DEFENSE vs. ARKANSAS STATE RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan is #25 in rush defense (76 yards allowed/game) and #39 in yards allowed per rush (2.81), but they have mostly been solid against the run. Last week's numbers against Texas were heavily affected by WR Ryan Wingo's 55-yard end around, but the top three running backs averaged 2.4, 3.6, and 3.8 yards per carry. The Wolverines need to clean up their tackling - CB Jyaire Hill and LB Jaishawn Barham have both been disappointing in that area - and they need the offense to help keep star DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant off the field for longer stretches so they can get breaks. Safety Makari Paige leads the team with 11 tackles, followed by DE Josaiah Stewart (9) and then six players tied with 7 stops. Arkansas State is #85 in rushing offense (140.5 yards/game) and #103 in yards per carry (3.27). Sophomore QB Jaylen Raynor (6'0", 201) leads the team with 122 yards on 34 attempts and 2 touchdowns. Redshirt junior RB Ja'Quez Cross (5'9", 197) has just 55 yards on 17 attempts, while senior Zak Wallace (6'0", 225) has 31 carries for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns. Somewhat surprisingly, the Red Wolves have a sizeable offensive line, led by junior RT Elijah Zollicoffer (6'5", 345) and redshirt junior LG Mehki Butler (6'3", 320). However, Zollicoffer and redshirt junior LT Noah Smith (6'7", 315) have really struggled this season. Zollicoffer gets off balance way too easily, and Smith can get overpowered. Michigan's starting edges should have a very good day on Saturday.
Advantage: Michigan

PASS DEFENSE vs. ARKANSAS STATE PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #98 in pass defense (240.5 yards allowed/game) and #81 in yards allowed per attempt (6.7). They're also #89 in passing efficiency defense. Texas QB Quinn Ewers tore them apart pretty effectively (66.7% completions, 246 yards, 3 TDs), largely because the pass rush couldn't get home against a quality offensive line. CB Will Johnson wasn't tested - except when he chased down Wingo's 55-yard run to save a touchdown - but CB Jyaire Hill and the safeties were tested, and it didn't go well. Hill allowed 8 receptions on 11 targets and gave up 105 yards and 1 touchdown. Unlike last week (Michigan had 5 QB hurries but 0 sacks), the Wolverines should be able to put significant pressure on Raynor. Whether they can bring him down quickly is a different question since he's so quick, but the offensive line is shoddy at best with injuries and poor players at the tackle positions. Arkansas State is #57 in passing offense (286 yards/game), #71 in yards per attempt (7.2), and #91 in passing efficiency. Raynor is the only player who has attempted a pass this year (57% completions, 572 yards, 3 TD, 2 INT) and his leading receiver is redshirt junior Corey Rucker (6'0", 216), a South Carolina transfer who has 13 catches for 239 yards and 2 TDs. Fifth year senior WR Courtney Jackson (5'11", 189) had a punt return touchdown last week and is tied for #2 in receiving with 8 catches for 89 yards. Senior WR Reagan Ealy (5'9", 178) has a matching line with 8 catches for 89 yards.
Advantage: Michigan

ROSTER NOTES

• Arkansas State players from the State of Michigan include: LB Marvin Ham (Belleville), P Ryan Heicher (Walled Lake Northern), K Clune Van Andel (Forest Hills Eastern), LB Charles Willekes (NorthPointe Christian)

LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...

• These two teams have never played
• Despite spending a lot of his time in Michigan (at Ferris State and Central Michigan), Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones has never faced Michigan as a head coach

PREDICTION

• Michigan 34, Arkansas State 13