NOTE: Unfortunately, I ran out of time to finish the preview this week due to an unexpectedly busy Thursday night and Friday. So I'm posting what I had already written, plus a prediction for the outcome.
RUSH OFFENSE vs. USC RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is #50 in rush offense (176.3 yards/game) after a big week last week against Arkansas State, totaling 301 yards on the ground. The big gainer was RB Kalel Mullings, who had 15 carries for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Wolverines are #42 in yards per carry (5.24), and Mullings is gaining 7.5 yards every time he touches the ball. Meanwhile, Donovan Edwards seemed to run a little harder last week and gained 82 yards on 17 carries with 1 touchdown. The offensive line seemed to gel a little bit against the Red Wolves with RG Giovanni El-Hadi notching the highest PFF run blocking grade. Michigan also introduced its six-lineman package, inserting Andrew Gentry as the extra man. It's rumored there will be a change at center, where Greg Crippen will likely replace Dominick Giudice. Michigan also announced they would be making a change at QB, where 6'3", 235 lb. Alex Orji will put to use his skills that have allowed him to run 10 times for 58 yards so far this year. USC is allowing 100 yards/game on the ground, which is good enough for #33 nationally, but they're #77 in yards allowed per carry (4.17). The leading tacklers are senior LB Eric Gentry (6'6", 215) with 14 tackles, senior LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold (6'0", 231), and redshirt sophomore S Kamari Ramsey (6'0", 204) with 14, 13, and 12 stops, respectively. Mascarenas-Arnold (Oregon State) and Ramsey (UCLA) were both poached this past off-season, with Ramsey having come from defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn's prior stop with the Bruins. In fact, six of USC's defensive starters were playing for other teams last year, including fifth year senior DT Gavin Meyer (6'3", 290) and fifth year senior DT Nate Clifton (6'4", 295). Lynn is from the Ravens coaching tree, just like Wink Martindale, Mike Macdonald, and Jesse Minter.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS OFFENSE vs. USC PASS DEFENSE
We don't really know what the pass offense will look like this week, because Orji is taking over. Orji has not thrown the ball much, completing just 3/6 passes for 15 yards and 2 touchdowns. Michigan needs to take some shots downfield to keep the defense honest, but it remains to be seen whether Orji can complete any passes that are farther than about three yards downfield. Both touchdowns have come to players leaking out of the backfield in Edwards and TE Hogan Hansen. The pass blocking looked better last week, but it was against Arkansas State, so I'm not sure how much that translates. USC is #72 in pass defense (205.5 yards allowed/game) and #51 in yards allowed per attempt (6.2). They're #81 in passing efficiency defense. Both of their opponents have completed at least 66% of their passes, and LSU's Garrett Nussmeier completed 30/39 throws for 308 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Both of USC's interceptions have come from linebackers, and no defensive back has recorded a pass breakup except for third-string CB Marcelles Williams, playing late in a 48-0 blowout win over Utah State. I have questions about how well their secondary can hold up, but I also have questions about whether Michigan can effectively pass the ball. The Trojans are #94 in sacks per game (1.5) with Gentry and Ramsey notching one each.
ROSTER NOTES
- USC players recruited by Michigan include: DT Bear Alexander, WR Zachariah Branch, S Zion Branch, LB Raesjon Davis, WR Kyle Ford, S Marquis Gallegos, WR Makai Lemon, DE Anthony Lucas, OL Jonah Monheim, OL Mason Murphy, DT Kobe Pepe, OL Makai Saina,
- USC players from the state of Michigan include: LB Desman Stephens (Clarkston)
PREDICTION
- USC 31, Michigan 23
I'm not sure how to predict this one. I have NO IDEA what the offense will look like under Orji. Can he be trusted to throw more than 5 passes? What will that look like? Who will he throw to if Loveland is banged up? Where is The Don?
ReplyDeleteWhat is our defense all about? I'm all for aggression, but we can't let the play develop behind us ... don't rush to failure
Fanatical pick coming: 27-24, good guys in a nailbiter? Just as likely a blowout that makes the Texas game seem like a close one, but I'll remain hopelessly optimistic for now
Wow, nice call, JE! Time stamp of your post says Saturday 11:37 am; otherwise the prediction is so spot-on that it’s barely believable.
DeleteHa! All luck, I was mess from start to finish
Delete34-20. tough to not see a rough day for michigan
ReplyDeleteFirst play, Edwards trips over grass ... I hope that's not a thing again
ReplyDeleteUgh, that first pass looked like Orji was bowling
Second drive we lined Bredeson out Wide ... yikes
Mullings is a Homerun Back this year! #playmaker ... get him more than 7 carries please
WRs = zero separation ... need playmakers for Orji
The Don! He fired up our Head Coach! Surprising he has no carries outside
Too many blitzes. D was fine straight up
We desperately need a pass game, but this is much more fun with Orji than with Warren
Was Crippen in on both scoring drives? I think so
*kudos to fans on the Stripeout. I was doubtful
Just a Herculean effort by the Defense ... they just aren't well coached in Zone coverage
ReplyDelete- Makari Page was just bad all day
- On the first TD in 2nd Half, not sure why Zeke went outsiders. Five jerseys, all guarding grass
- Question the coaches: Barham's missed tackles mean he should sit
- Jeez, that botched blitz gets SC another TD
We need a lot more on offense
- no LB or defenders freaking out ... Maaaybe if Orji had some Receivers? That stat on 3Q TOP +11min for SC while under 5 for UM. Too much to ask of the D for a season
- Not gonna scare a defense with Bell, Bredeson & CJ running routes. We need actual playmakers in our WR room. Hopefully some guy is assigned to tampering with the portal
- we missed Loveland, bad. It would have been a tough one, but Klein needs to make that catch on 2nd Down & 8. He's too big & fast to try jumping over a high tackle ... put your shoulder down!
- one hand on the ball for Edwards up the gut on that fumble. A Boom-Bust day for sure
- it's a shame our QBs didn't get playing time during blowouts last year. Orji didn't see a wiiide open Semaj
- Mullings is RB1. Question the coaches!
I think next week Tuttle should start if he is healthy. Orji is not better than Davis. The offense was hard to watch in the second half. If not for the spectacular run from Mullings on that last TD drive, I do not think we we would have scored on that drive. If Tuttle is still not healthy, just teach Davis to throw the football away. 12 out of 15 ain't bad as long as those 3 incompletions are not INTs.
ReplyDeleteMullings is clearly RB1. I am sure the coaches know it. What is most telling is that Mullings was the RB of choice during the last TD drive. I just feel that the coaches is looking at the long game when playing Edwards, making sure he is involved. He has clearly delivered in big games in the past!
I know the defense stood tall today but I thought Lincoln Riley was overly cautious in the first half, keeping the offense vanilla. If he had been attacking the defense (Hill for example) in the first half, I think it would have been a different outcome.
Minnesota is not a gimme. Counting on the long runs to win the game is not something you can count on for the whole season. Today's victory is not last years' victory over Penn State. Last year, the offense can run run run into the end zone because we are capable of gaining that 3 yards when needed. Not this year's team.
We do need Tuttle, but he won't last behind this OL. Link stinks, period
DeleteFor me, I'm just enjoying each win, unsure of how many we'll get this week
Great effort by the Defense, and holy crap Mullings is our own beastmode