RUSH OFFENSE vs. MINNESOTA RUSH DEFENSE
Michigan is now #31 in rushing offense (205 yards/game) and tied for #33 in yards per carry (5.57) with UNLV. The breakout star of this year's team has been RB Kalel Mullings, who had 17 carries for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns against USC last week, including a 53-yard touchdown, a 63-yard run to set up the winning score, and the game-winning 2-yard score on 4th down. Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact that the all-new offensive line has struggled. Michigan received just a 57.5 run blocking grade against the Trojans. There has been some platooning going on at center between Dominick Giudice and Greg Crippen, but the personnel at the other spots has been steady. RB Donovan Edwards broke out with a 41-yard touchdown last week, and new starting QB Alex Orji ran 13 times for 43 yards and averages 4.4 yards/carry for the year. Defensively, Minnesota is #56 in rushing defense (123.5 yrds allowed/game) and #62 in yards allowed per carry (3.81). Last week Iowa's Kaleb Johnson ran 21 times for 206 yards and 3 touchdowns, and North Carolina's Omarion Hampton put up 129 yards in week one, albeit on 30 carries for a so-so 4.3 yards/carry clip. Redshirt sophomore MLB Maverick Baranowski (6'2", 230) leads the team with 27 tackles, followed closely by fifth year senior WLB Cody Lindenberg (6'3", 240) with 26 stops. Baranowski and fifth year senior nickel Jack Henderson (6'2", 215) lead the team with 2.5 tackles for loss each, chased by fifth year senior OLB Danny Striggow (6'5", 255) with 2.0 TFLs. The middle of the line features fifth year senior DT Jalen Logan-Redding (6'4", 290) and redshirt junior NT Deven Eastern (6'6", 310); Eastern has only graded out on PFF higher than 57.0 when he played against FCS Rhode Island, while Logan-Redding has a couple grades in the 70s balanced with sub-60 scores against the two Power 4 opponents.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. MINNESOTA PASS DEFENSE
What pass offense? Michigan is #129 nationally with just 123 yards/game and things were even worse last week when Orji completed just 7/12 passes for 32 yards. On the plus side, he didn't throw any interceptions after Davis Warren threw 6 in the first three games, but there isn't much to the passing game at this point. Tight end Colston Loveland was off to a pretty good start with 19 catches for 187 yards and 1 touchdown in the first three games, but he was injured against Arkansas State and did not play last week. His return is uncertain. Wide receiver Semaj Morgan has 12 catches for a paltry 62 yards, because Michigan only really throws screens to him, but the defenses won't back off to give him space because they don't respect the passing game. Also, Michigan's offensive line has been terrible in pass protection, especially at right tackle, where redshirt freshman Evan Link has scored a 0.0 in pass protection against both Texas and USC. Minnesota is a surprising #2 in pass defense (99.5 yards allowed/game) and they're tied at #4 in yards allowed per attempt (4.2). They have yet to allow a passing touchdown and have made 7 interceptions. Six different players have made at least one pick, led by redshirt freshman safety Kerry Brown (5'10", 190) with 2. Henderson returned an interception 25 yards for a touchdown against Rhode Island. Brown, Henderson, and senior CB Bucknell transfer CB Ethan Robinson (6'0", 190) are the three highest graded defenders to PFF. The Gophers are tied for #48 in sacks (8.0), led by Striggow and Henderson with 1.5 each.
Advantage: Minnesota
RUSH DEFENSE vs. MINNESOTA RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan has been doing a pretty solid job against the run. They're #11 in yards allowed per game (76.5) and #26 in yards allowed per carry (3.06). Other than a 65-yard run by USC's Woody Marks last week, the vast majority of runs have been tamped down after short gains. Weakside LB Ernest Hausmann and MLB Jaishawn Barham lead the team with 19 and 18 tackles, respectively. Barham has not played up to my expectations after getting such rave reviews in the off-season, but he has star defensive tackles Mason Graham (15 tackles) and Kenneth Grant (5 tackles) in front of him. Michigan needs to try to keep those DTs fresh so they can still be ready in the third and fourth quarters. Minnesota's top two runners happen to be guys Michigan tried to recruit in sophomore Darius Taylor (6'0", 215) and Oklahoma transfer Marcus Major (6'0", 220). Taylor has 35 carries for 222 yards (6.3 yards/carry) and 3 touchdowns, while Major has 40 carries for 162 yards (4.0 yards/carry) and 2 scores. Overall, though, Minnesota is #108 in yards per game (117.3) and #99 in yards per carry (3.78). They have managed just 79 yards in each outing against Power 4 teams, including just 2.39 yards per carry against North Carolina, which just got roasted 70-50 by JMU. The offensive line is large, averaging just over 6'6" and 319 pounds. They also have two sixth-year seniors and one fifth-year guy. But they're not very good. Michigan should be able to handle the offensive line pretty well, so it will be a matter of tackling Taylor and Major if they get any open space.
Advantage: Michigan
PASS DEFENSE vs. MINNESOTA PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #101 in pass defense (246.5 yards allowed/game) but #31 in yards allowed per attempt (5.9). They're also #57 in passing efficiency defense. Those numbers are all over the place. Basically, they've been all over the place after Texas's Quinn Ewers and his OL/WR had their way. Texas didn't throw at CB Will Johnson at all, which was probably a good decision, considering Johnson now has two pick-sixes this season and is Michigan's all-time leader in that category. Redshirt freshman CB Jyaire Hill played his best game last week, while senior safety Makari Paige got lost a few times. Michigan OLB Josaiah Stewart won some weekly awards last week after making 5 tackles, 3 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks against USC, and both Graham and Grant terrorized USC QB Miller Moss last week. Minnesota is #82 in passing offense (217.8 yards/game) and #75 in yards per attempt (7.3). They're #64 in passing efficiency. Sixth year senior New Hampshire transfer QB Max Brosmer (6'2", 225) is completing 65.8% of his passes for 7.3 yards/attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. His favorite target is fifth year WR Daniel Jackson (6'0", 195), who has 21 catches for 268 yards and 0 touchdowns. Senior WR Elijah Spencer (6'2", 200) has 12 receptions for 153 yards and 1 score. Jackson is a good receiver, but the movement of RT Quinn Carroll (6'7", 315) is downright gross, and RG Ashton Beers (6'6", 320) isn't much better. Stewart and DE Derrick Moore should have a good day coming off Minnesota's right side. The bright spot on the offensive line for Minnesota is fifth year senior LT Aireontae Ersery (6'5", 330), who has good feet and scored a 78.1 against Iowa last week, according to PFF, including an 89.4 in pass blocking. If I'm Michigan, I'm putting Stewart over Carroll most of the game and letting Will Johnson follow around Daniel Jackson.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Minnesota players offered by Michigan include: OT Quinn Carroll, WR Cristian Driver, DL Adam Kissayi, RB Marcus Major, S Koi Perich, DL Hayden Schwartz, RB Darius Taylor
- Minnesota players from the state of Michigan include: RB Jaren Mangham (Cass Tech), RB Darius Taylor (Walled Lake Western)
- Minnesota WR Cristian Driver is the son of former NFL WR Donald Driver
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED . . .
- On October 7, 2023, Michigan beat Minnesota by a score of 52-10
- Michigan defensive backs Will Johnson and Keon Sabb each scored pick-sixes
- Minnesota QB Athan Kaliakmanis (now at Rutgers) completed just 5/15 passes for 52 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs
- Michigan defensive linemen Josaiah Stewart and Mason Graham combined for 9 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, and 2 sacks
- Michigan RB Kalel Mullings ran 8 times for 59 yards, and Donovan Edwards ran 4 times for 20 yards
PREDICTION
- Michigan 38, Minnesota 13
I'll be interested to see if Michigan stays in their comfort zone -- paving Minnesota with the run game -- or if they try to exercise a passing game that Orji is capable of doing at this point. At some point they have to utilize Orji in passing; they can't just resign themselves to run virtually all the time. Will they take the opportunity to practice some passing?
ReplyDeleteI think Michigan will have to take some downfield shots this game. Not necessarily in order to win, but to give Orji some practice throwing the ball under live fire. I think this is a game where Michigan can probably afford to eat an INT or two or perhaps a forced fumble in the dropback game and still win. Last week Michigan needed everything they could to beat that USC team, but with some room for error this week (I think), they need to unleash Orji at least twice to throw it deep. I'm guessing they'll take at least one shot in the first half and then another in the second.
DeleteOrji has the arm strength to throw it deep. He just has to connect on one or two to loosen up the defense.
To throw deep you need time to throw deep so maybe a max protect situation (so fewer receivers downfield) with a limited number of reads and then scramble if it's not there.
DeleteI don't know if Loveland has been announced as starting, or if he's sitting out another to fully heal. But if he's 100% and he's there, there some passing targeted at him in the 5 to 10 yards downfield might be nice to get Orji a bit more confident.
DeleteIf by some miracle Michigan's pass-pro holds up against Minnesota, *and* they're seeing some receiver separation ... then yeah, chuck one and see what happens.
Pass Offense section might as well read: "N/A"
ReplyDeleteJust kidding...sort of.
I don't see us getting anywhere close to 38 points on offense. That would have been a reasonable expectation for the 2023 offense, but I think we're well off that.
23-9 good guys
bonus prediction: more than 35 passing yards!
So my gut tells me either (a) Orji is going to throw for 22 yards, or something, or (b) he'll go over 100. I'm just sensing a boom (it's a relative term), or bust. My heart wants a nice 110 yard day, or something like that.
DeleteLOL. relative to what? Everybody is boom/bust.
DeleteEspecially the Michigan offense -- if it's going to score 38 points this week. I'd be interested in Thunder's thinking after ragging them all week to expect 38. Not trash talking - legitimately curious because I don't see it.
Relative to a 21-for-25, 312 yard day for Orji. That's a boom, and that ain't happening. But a day where he puts up a modest 110 or so would be satisfying, because it shows progress.
DeleteMy point is I don't see a 54 yard day, which is middling type outing. Either he struggles and pitches for 20 or so, or he does okay and gets a bit over a hundred.
@ Lank 10:09 a.m.
DeleteWell, I thought Michigan's defense would dominate the offense. I thought Josaiah Stewart was going to be a huge mismatch for Minnesota's tackles. I didn't know Stewart wouldn't play. Add in the fact that Will Johnson didn't play at all, and Myles Hinton finished the game on the bench, and it wasn't the game I expected.
For what it's worth, I posted on Twitter prior to the game that I didn't feel good about my blowout prediction in light of the injury report. Stewart is WAY better than T.J. Guy and Derrick Moore. Brosmer would have had a significantly worse day with Johnson and Stewart on the field.
Oh well.
@Thunder
DeleteAgree that Stewart and Johnson are impact guys. But the defense DID still dominate Minnesota through the first 3 quarters. It was 24-3 entering the 4th. And that 24 points was in large part thanks to Michigan have 2 INTs, stripping a ball from Minnesota, and blocking a punt, to create two TD drives of 16 and 11 yards.
I would argue the defense largely did it's part, more than one could reasonably expect, to help the offense out (all but gifting them 14 points). Still did not get anywhere close to 38 points. That's the part I find to be a head-scratcher.
OTOH if the 4th quarter had continued on the way the first 3 had - your prediction would have come to be. I'm just surprised you feel like this is a offense that can drive a team to putting up 38 points against a non-cupcake.
If Loveland plays, 27-1o
ReplyDeleteWithout Loveland, 2o-17
Coaches would rather have Mullings out there with a broken helmet than Edwards? RB1 change ... question the coaches!
ReplyDeleteMore questioning the coaches: I think it was the third drive, but Don is out for 1st Downs, then Mullings for 3rd & Long ... reverse that!
Too many snaps for Bell ... we need playmakers for Orji
Mullings just draggggging defenders (or running them over) on that second TD drive ... not all yards are equal! #harball
Derek Moore is the Makari Paige of our DL: so much 'almost'
The Left side of our OL is solid; the Right side sucks
Not sold on Barham, at all. He's a blitzer, and not much more. Doesn't seem to have been coached at Maryland
When thunder called for patience regarding Hill, I didn't expect it to come in September! Dude gets better every week
4th & 1, the Right side of the OL gets caved. Mullings cuts to the Left, where there's just enough room
DeletePlease no more Bredeson in the Slot. Please, I'm begging
But still, I might take our 2o17 WR group of Grant Perry and some TrFR over this room
An 8min drive to midfield for a FG is so B1G
I appreciate having both RBs out there, but Edwards was wiiide open on that INT!
3rd &1 with 9 to play, the OL creates no hole, but Mullings bullies forward for 5yds. Later on 2nd & 11, it looked like a rugby scrum. In three of five games, Mullings has carried us to a finish. #RBsMatter
Zone coverage still a problem for our D. Tempo is not our friend against Oregon
Boring 3Q; fresno & ArkSt vibes. Even the fans emptied out. Other than some practice for Orji & the swap at LT, we basically mailed it in
Mullings on the Hands team says something about our WR room ...
Said this last week, but with bad pass pro, no WRs and crap QB play, every game is up for grabs. Enjoy each W. Oward to Seattle!
I agree with almost everything you said. I do think putting Mullings in that spot makes sense. You want someone on that front line who's both tough and has good hands. Sometimes those guys up front get blasted, and you don't want a skinny WR right there. That's a place where we (in high school) usually put a FB, TE, RB, etc. Wideouts shy away from contact and get hamblasted.
DeleteWell, ideally we'd have more than skinny Bell/Walker or Short CJ in our WR room
DeleteWhoever questioned our identity needs to learn the game: we just run the ball. Close games, blowouts, doesn't matter
ReplyDelete#runfirstrunoften
#smash
Wisconsin & their backup QB making SC defense look baaad ...
ReplyDeleteAs the season progresses, our 0 is looking worse than we thought
Enjoy every win like it's the last!
Stink Martingale was getting diced up by some New Hampshire FBS jabrodie. His blitzes fools no one. He never gets a free blitzer. The QB always knows where to go with ball. In the NFL good DC Cannot just blitz, they have to disguise it, hide it.
ReplyDeleteHe is washed up. Washed.
I didn't love Martindale going to man coverage in the red zone toward the end of the game, but I thought the defense had a solid game overall. The lack of depth on the DL hurts, not having Stewart hurt, not having Johnson hurt, and sucking on offense hurts. Michigan has to dominate possession time to keep Grant and Graham fresh. We've seen that in a few games now.
DeleteThis is a classic case - and it will likely last all year - of a poor offense making a defense look worse than it is.
Defense was dominant most of the game. Late 3 drives were bad.
DeleteFirst one -- should have ended but for the dubious penalty on Graham. Gave up to many yards though.
Second one - short field set up by special teams, following a 3 and out by the offense - this one was excusable IMO.
Third one - with a 10 point lead and time being an issue it felt like they were playing soft. This is the drive where I think Stewart and Johnson would have been most effective. Converted a few 4th downs barely while taking a lot of time off the clock.
I think it felt worse than it was.
Before that Minny had 4 punts, 3 turnovers, and 2 FG attempts. That's good stuff.
Earlier in the game they had the graphic about Wink blitzing far less often than he started off blitzing. It seems like he might be adapting, so I think we shouldn't write him off.
I'm really interested in Thunder's game analysis on this one. I'm seeing reviews all over the map. I didn't watch the game, and I don't know what really happened.
ReplyDeleteOrji's stats were okay ... not great, but okay. It seems he's improving somewhat.
Orji was asked to do a lot more and was generally successful. The glimmers of balance were encouraging.
DeleteUnfortunately he threw and INT, and it was a bad read with a bad throw, and the game turned on that play. The two plays before were nice chunks by the offense and Don was wide open for TD if Orji had thrown it to him -- instead it's an INT and then Minnesota scores 3 TDs in a row to turn a feel good romp into something that is going to make a lot of fans complain.
I have seen enough of Orji at QB. If Tuttle is healthy, play him. If not, let’s go back to Warren. Orji did not get much yards rushing the ball. I would rather have Warrren at QB. At least he looks decent throwing the football. Just ask him not to press.
ReplyDeleteThe offense is doing better with Orji. That seems pretty obvious to me. If nothing else they have cut down turnovers and we saw yesterday how impactful they could be.
DeleteWarren is the right choice if you want to finish 7-5. Orji is the right choice if you want to cross your fingers and hope there's a path to 9-3.
I agree that the offense has hints of improvement
DeleteI'm not sure that it's Orji though. Our pass production has taken a step back, while our run game has made some strides despite the same challenges from the OL
What else changed? Our new RB1 has nearly twice the snaps and 3x the carries as the guy who was benched ... not better runs from Kalel, but more
A QB change isn't going to change outcomes this season. Orji is probably better than Warren but it's close enough that a change won't matter. Do you want the inexperienced walk-on 22 year old or the inexperienced 3-star 20 year old?
DeleteEither way you've got a struggling OL with 5 new starters, no real In-Line TE, and a subpar receiving corps. Putting Jake Rudock or Wilton Speight or even Shea Patterson back there would be an upgrade but it probably takes you from the 60th best offense in the country to the 40th best offense in the country at best, given all the other issues in the lineup. A JJ McCarthy level talent isn't available on this roster.
With this OL playing like it's playing you're probably going to see QB1 get hurt and QB2 need to come in. When it does there should be a short-term bump because the stylistic difference is so large between Orji and Warren, but in the long-run you'll see a lot of limitations either way.
I for one am all for putting in Warren at some point later this season. It's just a change of pace -- a pass package - similar shifting of gears to the Orji/McCarthy/McCaffrey run package that was used the last few seasons to keep defenses off balance. Go in there and let Warren work with 4 receiving targets and throw that defense a curve ball. Then go back to the fastball (Orji Smash).
I'm not sure rotating QBs at this point would be any worse. I know the 2 QB thing often isn't successful because it means you don't have one quarterback . . . but it's true! Michigan doesn't have a quarterback! We all know this now.
DeleteIf Michigan were to continue to rotate the QBs, they could at least keep defenses off balance a little bit and force them to prepare for both a passer and a runner. Orji isn't a good passer when he's the guy, and he's not a good passer coming off the bench.
Neither of these guys will be the starter in 2025.
more concessions from the know nothing poster:
Delete- QB room is the problem some of us predicted back in April
- WR room lacks playmakers (now they're even subpar)
- OL is not guys who would start at other programs, and at least two shouldn't be starting here
#iwasright
LOL. The fantasies never stop.
Delete1. Please find the quotes where I stated "QB room is not a problem"
2. Please find the quotes where you said "backup OL would not start at other programs"
I stand by WR room having playmakers. As was covered in the spring, that doesn't mean the WR room is a strength. Different issues that you conflate because #2ooDuMb
ThunderSeptember 29, 2024 at 11:19 PM
DeleteI disagree with you about the rotation. I think it would be worse. It's bad enough that they changed course after 3 games. That probably set back progress substantially for Orji.
I'd like to see a change of pace package. I don't want a rotation.
You can keep defenses guessing with a package. With a rotation you keep your own offense guessing too.
it was in April liar ... if you were confident, YOU would find it. Considering the Ls you've racked up this Fall, it's not surprising you won't even try
DeleteYou're mistaking "playmakers" with guys who have made a play ... Hogan Hansen made a play a few weeks ago, but he's no "playmaker" ... our PFF Receiving Grade is #1o8 of 133, and that includes Loveland, Edwards & Hansen's sole catch ... our WRs have sucked, period
maybe if you understood sports you'd get it. Maybe. Or you would lie, dodge & otherwise drag out another obvious L
@Jelly
Delete1. Please find the quotes where I stated "QB room is not a problem"
2. Please find the quotes where you said "backup OL would not start at other programs"
I'll add
3. Please find the quotes where you said "WR is a team strength"
I can't find the quotes you fantasize about because they are fantasies.
Neither can you. Another DODGE! Hold it up.
You disagreed with my concerns on QB ... started a month long debate because I said we have a 7 or 8 win season with Orji-Warren. It was in April ... now it's widely accepted
Deletehttps://wolverineswire.usatoday.com/gallery/espn-updates-michigan-football-win-chances-for-remaining-2024-games-after-week-5/
I disagreed with your takes that our backup OL would start elsewhere because we never know until they play ... it was over the last two years
I never said WR was a team strength
You either lie or reframe statements. Try harder Lank
@jelly93
DeleteI'll repeat
1. Please find the quotes where I stated "QB room is not a problem"
2. Please find the quotes where you said "backup OL would not start at other programs"
3. Please find the quotes where you said "WR is a team strength"
Try.
You won't! I know it. You know it.
Why? Not even you believe you.
I won't even bother ...
DeleteI've provided quotes
I've provided data
I've proven you wrong, repeatedly ... you pretend denying these facts make you right (they don't)
It's your turn ... you won't. Even pretending this didn't happen is conceding that I was right about our QB room, right about WRs, and you were wrong about OL
You lose. Again
You have not. Not one quote.
DeleteYou are making things up. You are arguing with ghosts and then claiming you are right.
Have fun in fantasy land amigo.
Here in real life you have been asked to provide proof and no matter how many times you dodge and duck and you are STILL standing there, empty handed.
Except for your L's.
No numbnuts. On numerous occasions I have provided quotes. I have provided data. I prove you wrong repeatedly. You can only deny
DeleteYour turn. Go to April OPs ... they are all there
Don't think I forgot about that dollar you owe ...
This is the 3rd game in the row where Michigan is outplayed in the second half. In the game against Minny and USC, the offense becomes predictable and the defense tires. This has to fall on the coaches not able to adjust after halftime. It has been a while since we are outmatched on the coaching front.
ReplyDeleteI'm becoming convinced two things are going on:
Delete(1) Sherrone Moore truly is in over his head at present, trying to learn the HC role on the fly, and
(2) The current coaching staff was assembled somewhat hastily, and is sub-optimal.
I'm sure Thunder can elaborate with more personal insight, but coaching football is more than just X and O plays on paper, and that the leadership element of a HC is a fine, delicate balance. Too much "Do as I say!" and you lose the coaches and team; too little and the staff becomes unfocused and pursuing their own view of how things should go.
The offense looked the most interesting it has looked all season in the 2nd half of Minny. It didn't turn into a lot of results, but it wasn't just a bunch of conventional run plays. You saw some bits of balance in pass/run and you saw an exciting (to me) use of Edwards/Mullings package where Edwards was used as WR, Mullings as a blocker, and Orji as a runner while the D flipped out about our 2 RBs going the other way.
DeleteThe offense has not been good this year obviously, but if you're looking for glimmers of hope there are a few there.