RUSH OFFENSE vs. TEXAS RUSH DEFENSE
After one week of the 2024 season, Michigan is tied for #79 in yards per game (148.0) and #72 in yards per carry (4.35). Kalel Mullings kinda sorta seemed to take the lead running back role with 15 carries for 92 yards against Fresno State, passing up #1 RB Donovan Edwards (11 carries, 27 yards) in both attempts and yards. Michigan finished #22 in run blocking according to Pro Football Focus, but there were definitely some struggles. New LG Josh Priebe scored the highest in run blocking among offensive linemen (69.9) while new starting center Dominick Giudice was the lowest graded run blocker on the entire team (57.4). On the Texas side, fifth year senior DT Vernon Broughton (6'4", 305) graded out the highest among defenders against Colorado State with a grade of 89.8, but he was just a 56.8 against the run and made 2 tackles. Junior nickel Jaylon Guilbeau (6'0", 190) led the team with 8 tackles, followed by sophomore LB Anthony Hill, Jr. (6'3", 235) with 5 stops. Texas allowed 118 yards on the ground (#66 in the country) and ranked #70 in yards allowed per carry (3.69). I think Michigan will be able to run the ball, but the speed and size on defense is going to limit big plays.
Advantage: Michigan
Hit the jump for more.
PASS OFFENSE vs. TEXAS PASS DEFENSE
Michigan is currently #120 in passing, almost matching their total yards through the air from week one. Redshirt junior walk-on Davis Warren threw for 118 yards on 15/25 passing, and redshirt sophomore Alex Orji - used essentially as a Wildcat QB - completed 1/2 throws for a 3-yard touchdown to RB Donovan Edwards. Altogether, Michigan's 4.5 yards per attempt ties them for #125 and they're #100 in passing efficiency. Junior TE Colston Loveland (8 catches, 87 yards, 1 touchdown) was the star of the passing game, and by that I mean he was the only other relevant pass catcher during week one. Unless Michigan's play designs improve or the running game improves the play action, the receivers are going to have a difficult time separating from Texas's defensive backs. Giudice was the top pass blocker (82.4) while his backup, Greg Crippen, got a paltry 25.9 for pass blocking last week. Defensively, the Longhorns lost a lot last year, including two very good defensive tackles, and they're starting four transfers on D. Nobody recorded a sack last week despite winning 52-0. Broughton got the best pass rush grade (93.8), which is pretty darn good for an interior lineman. Senior DE Barryn Sorrell (6'4", 260) scored a 70.8 and redshirt junior DE Trey Moore (6'3", 245) notched a 70.7. Former Michigan commit Ethan Burke had 5.5 sacks to lead the team last year, but his 63.5 pass rush grade in week one was just so-so. Overall, Broughton might be one to watch, but he has just 2.5 career sacks and was pretty mediocre prior to this year, so he might not play like that again. Until Davis Warren proves otherwise, I think this is going to be a positive matchup for Texas, though.
Advantage: Texas
RUSH DEFENSE vs. TEXAS RUSH OFFENSE
Michigan held a pretty solid team to 9 total rushing yards last week, which ranks #3 behind Kentucky (who held Southern Miss to 5 rushing yards) and Arkansas (who held Arkansas-Pine Bluff to 7 yards). The Wolverines made just 6 tackles for loss; that's a number they topped seven times in 2023, but they never held a team to 7 rushing yards or fewer. Michigan arguably has the best defensive tackle duo in the country with Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham, who both graded out pretty poorly according to PFF but didn't let Fresno gain many yards. OLB Josaiah Stewart, DT Rayshaun Benny, and S Makari Paige each notched 5 tackles to lead the team, with Stewart (3.0 tackles for loss) and Benny (2.0 TFLs) leading the way in getting into the backfield. Texas junior LT Kelvin Banks, Jr. (6'4", 320) is a potential first rounder, but his run blocking grade last week was just 56.3. Overall, it's a huge offensive line with the lightest player being fifth year senior C Jake Majors (6'3", 315) and the heaviest being junior RT Cameron Williams (6'5", 335). The Longhorns did lose a couple of their top runners to injury during fall camp, so the bell cow needs to be RB Jaydon Blue (6'0", 200), who had 11 carries for 57 yards last week. Last season he ran 65 times for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns as the #3 back. The backup appears to be sophomore Quintrevion Wisner (6'0", 200). Texas runs a lot of RPOs, which seem to be head coach Steve Sarkisian's specialty, so redshirt junior QB Quinn Ewers (6'2", 210) will often pull the ball out of a running back's belly and throw to a receiver. Because those take time to read, Texas runs the ball laterally quite a bit to prevent linemen from getting downfield, so they're less of a mauling offensive line than their size would indicate. I'm a little worried about Michigan's linebackers getting RPOed to death, but if they can hold in coverage long enough for the defensive line to take care of the run, Michigan should be able to tamp things down. I'm less worried about the "R" of RPO and more worried about the "P."
Advantage: Texas
PASS DEFENSE vs. TEXAS PASS OFFENSE
Michigan is #99 in pass defense after giving up 235 yards to Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene. They were better when it comes to passing efficiency defense (#72) and yards per attempt (#79) at 6.5, but it still wasn't a great game. Stewart made 2 sacks and Benny made 1. Cornerback Will Johnson allowed a couple more catches than most people expected, but he also made up for it with an 86-yard interception return for a touchdown to cap off the scoring. New nickel Zeke Berry made 1 interception in his starting debut, and redshirt freshman CB Jyaire Hill held up pretty well opposite Johnson. Thankfully, Texas lost WR Xavier Worthy to the NFL, and he was replaced by Alabama junior transfer Isaiah Bond (5'11", 180) and junior Houston transfer Matthew Golden (6'0", 195), who combined for 8 catches, 111 yards, and 3 touchdown receptions last week. Texas is #21 in passing offense (355 yards last week), #21 in yards per attempt (10.8), and #17 passer rating. Ewers has excellent arm talent and can throw the ball from all angles, but sometimes he has a low release over the line, and someone like DT Kenneth Grant might be able to bat down a ball or two. The backup QB is redshirt freshman Arch Manning (6'4", 225), who went 5/6 for 95 yards and 1 touchdown.
Advantage: Michigan
ROSTER NOTES
- Texas players recruited by Michigan include: OL Malik Agbo, OL Brandon Baker, RB Jaydon Blue, DE Ethan Burke, OL Hayden Conner, WR Johntay Cook II, OL Daniel Cruz, QB Quinn Ewers, S Xavier Filsaime, DE Justice Finkley, LB David Gbenda, CB Jaylon Guilbeau, S Jordon Johnson-Rubell, WR Parker Livingstone, QB Arch Manning, DT Sydir Mitchell, CB Malik Muhammad, DE Zina Umeozulu, DE Connor Vasek, WR Ryan Wingo
- DE Ethan Burke was committed to Michigan at one time (LINK)
- Texas LB Brady Sarkisian is the son of Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian
- Texas OL Brooks Kieschnick, Jr. is the son of former MLB player Brooks Kieschnick
LAST TIME THEY PLAYED...
- On January 1, 2005, Michigan played Texas in the two teams' only meeting, a 38-37 victory for the Longhorns
- Freshman QB Chad Henne completed 18/34 passes for 227 yards and 4 touchdowns
- WR Braylon Edwards caught 10 passes for 109 yards and 1 touchdown
- LB Prescott Burgess made 1 interception, which he returned for 23 yards
- Texas QB Vince Young completed 16/28 passes for 180 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception while also running 21 times for 192 yards and 4 touchdowns
- Texas K Dusty Mangum hit a 37-yard game-winning field goal in the final seconds
PREDICTION
- Texas 24, Michigan 17
Good pick on the score. I'll flip it, for a MICHIGAN dub
ReplyDeleteThunder, I was a little surprised to see you give Michigan the advantage on pass D vs Texas and Texas the advantage on their rush O vs Michigan. The data you present suggest otherwise. Was this an inadvertent switch?
ReplyDeletea) I think Michigan will be able to run the ball. I think we're going to see the OL improve and I also think we'll see a little more creativity. Texas didn't do that great against CSU, which is not a strong program. I don't think Michigan will run all over Texas, but I think they'll have a decent day.
Deleteb) When I talk about the pass, I'm factoring in RPOs into the run game. I guess I should have made that clear. I don't know that Texas can sit back and throw the ball all over the place unless it's in the RPO game, which I categorize as part of the running game, if that makes sense.
So...not necessarily mistakes, but I definitely didn't make myself clear in the second case.
I like your optimism on the run game Thunder. I hope it comes to pass. errr, to be.
ReplyDeleteI won't pretend to have any idea what is going to happen tomorrow. My gut says we'll either get sliced up by Ewers and get blown out like Oregon in '07
OR
We'll muck things up, turn it into a BIGTEN field position slog, use a couple of gimmick/gadget/trick plays for big gains, maybe get a turnover or two to turn it into a coinflip.
One way or another, we'll learn more about this 2024 team. I'm excited for that and (win or lose) happy we are playing competitive football games in September. There's a lot of things I hate about how college football has evolved in the last 5 years, but it seems like we're moving towards more marquee matchups, so there are good things too.
The note on Giudice's pass blocking is interesting. I was under the impression from various player and coach comments that Crippen was strong at pass blocking but Giudice was more of a brute who was making himself known in the SMASH run game. Did not really see that in Game 1 though.
ReplyDeleteThe Wink Martindale experience got off to a rocky start. Wink was directly responsible for most of the poor place by stupid blitzes leaving those easy slant passes.
ReplyDeleteOverall, you can say ranked 99, but the scored 7 and set the offense up for another 7.
They outscored the offense.
More complaining:
I thought Will got cooked that fade TD play that was dropped BUT, he had the whole field and could not give up the easy slant inside. He jumped that because we didn't have any safety help and did not disguise the coverage. #$%# Idiot.
That dude is going to coach us into some loses unless he tightens it up.
Whatever the score, I hope Michigan plays tough, competitive, and at the end -- win or lose -- the consensus is it was a great game between to very good teams.
ReplyDeleteWelp ... I didn't get what I'd hoped for.
DeleteMichigan will lose because:
ReplyDelete1) Offense will press and will therefore have a few costly turnovers.
2) Defense will be solid but will still leak points because we no longer have Mike Sainristil and Rod Moore to counter Texas RPO
3) Edwards will have one highlight play because the coaches scheme for it. But otherwise he will be the usual Edwards we see in Game 1.
Texas 27 Michigan 16 (Hope I am wrong)
Well, these turned out to be pretty good predictions. I thought the absence of Rod Moore was particularly glaring yesterday.
DeleteTuttle may play ...
ReplyDeleteI keep hearing the MCU "Agatha All Along" music, but maybe it's Tuttle who was QB1 all along?
Tuttle is the best QB on the roster. Unfortunately, he always seems to be hurt.
DeleteWe should be meddling guys into the portal
DeleteUnfortunately it does look like Tuttle might be the best QB we have. That kind of says a lot when the guy who beat him out for a starting job at Indiana is now at...Bowling Green.
DeleteAnd to everyone saying nobody was available to go portal shopping -- Hogwash. Post spring we addressed a need for kicking and a need in the secondary and knocked both out of the park. They tried at DT and whiffed but QB? Nothing, not even rumors.
They liked who they had. And that was all fine if Orji was making a leap and the O was going to be able to SMASH down their throats but if Orji is THIS FAR from being able to beat out Warren, they evaluated very badly. The talent is deficient and the contrast between what Texas and Michigan have at the QB position is so enormous that it's going to be tough to overcome even if everything else is in your favor (which it clearly was not).
It seems like they are saying NEXT MAN UP with the QB spot but Warren is not anything like McCarthy. That's just not gonna work. Certainly not at the same time that the personnel around QB is taking a big step back as well.
Yep. As I say, sometimes it's okay to question the coaches, even on PT/personnel matters
DeleteInept Offense leaving our D with 3osec rest
ReplyDeleteThe Don planted his left foot, and made the LB commit ... BOOM, he gets a lane
ReplyDeleteHill is overwhelmed at CB2
ReplyDeleteBarham thinks he's at Maryland still, looking for a big hit. WRAP UP
DL is gassed, backups gettin bullied
Offense has nothing. Play calling, no WR, hitching QB. All bad ... no play action with Mullings in on 3rd & short is criminal
Even at my most pessimistic, I didn't think QB & WR rooms were this bad ... 88yds at the Half is nightmare worthy
You can see flashes with Hill. I feel like he's playing kind of like a freshman right now (technically, he's a redshirt freshman, I guess), but he's making the types of plays that make me think he'll be pretty darn good in 2025.
DeleteThe offense is terrible for lots of reasons. It's very frustrating.
Yes - spot on with Hill looking like a freshman. Gotta recognize that in today's world there are kids coming in as freshman who are hyper-prepared. Prep schools, academies, camps, clinics, extra years, early graduation, early enrollment, NIL deals, parents functioning like agents, personal trainers, nutrition guidance, physically mature, etc. Some are given EVERY opportunity to succeed from the jump. Tate Forcier is an example but there are many more. Then there are kids who are NOT doing all that - kids coming to football late or coming from backgrounds where camps and all that aren't an option. Maybe they've got family issues that take up time, or playing multiple sports, or changing positions or whatever else. Old school - 18 as a freshman and decidedly NOT a kid groomed for the NFL. Raw. Lots of development needed or maturity needed or both. College level S&C is a big level up. Etc. That still happens with a lot of kids.
DeleteThe latter group isn't new and at this point neither is the former that new anymore either. I'm just saying the gap is wider than ever and likely will continue this way with how youth athletics is trending and especially with football continuing to grow in popularity and influence.
Flip-flop time: if Warren is gonna have bad footwork, zero explosives as a passer, turn it over once a game and not be able to move the offense ... F it. Go with OrjiCat and be one dimensional. One is more than none, right?
ReplyDeleteOof ...
ReplyDeleteNeed a Stallions ... a guy who specializes in tampering with the Portal. QBs, WRs, TE, OL, DL, LB, Secondary ... all positions up for battle after losing our entire D next year
Our last run was the first play of the 4Q ... this turned into a practice session for Warren (but not Orji), because our QBs only got five pass ATT last year. None are game ready
Don ran more patiently. MOVED a pile once, Harball style. That Ben Hall got a series was surprising. Hope Mullings is fine
Priebe is a clear downgrade at Guard. Link got abused in the 2nd Half. We did not reload at OL as hoped
Five wide sets with so little WR production is troubling ... CJ Charleston was out top WR until the garbage time TD
Etta is not a DT yet. Getting bullied at +3oolb makes him an overweight DE, playing out of position
Brandt got worked at DE ... Whole backup D is really bad
Back in April I thought the QB room was empty and WR room was a big question mark ... that was far too optimistic. How many games can our Defense hold onto?
Most disappointing aspect of today’s debacle is the performance of the defense. The defense is supposed to be good. Wink is supposed to be OG of the amoeba defense. We have potentially 3 future first rounder. Texas walked all over us. I was not a fan of Wink’s hiring. I thought we hired him because of the Ravens connection and familiarity with the system and not because he was the brightest defensive guy. Still early days for Wink but the early returns are not good.
ReplyDeleteIf we indeed stumble to a 7-5 season (or worse), I wonder how long Moore will last.
I'm not ready to say the Martindale hire was a bad one yet. I think he needs to make some adjustments (maybe simplifying some things), but this Texas offense is very good. Ewers might be QB1 in the 2025 draft, and he plays for one of the best offensive minds in college football in Sarkisian. Texas's OL is also better than I thought they would be. This was a good team.
DeleteYou also have to play complementary football, and the offense hung the defense out to dry way too often. You can't score 12 points against Texas - including just two field goals until the very end of the game - and expect to win. Honestly, allowing *only* 31 points when the offense stunk that much was kind of a win for the defense. It probably should have been worse.
The commercial breaks have the defense more rest than our offense
DeleteDepth is a huge problem up front. Agree on Hill; had to be tough getting singled out. He'll improve. Still not okay with with the tackling; no wrapping up is maddening
The open question is whether Martindale will make those adjustments. I'm not so sure. We'll see.
DeleteThere are some things to clean up on Defense but I think Thunder's take here is spot on. When your offense sets up the other team 3 times at midfield or better in the first handful of drives AND it's not putting points on the board -- you're not going to shut down an offense like Texas that brings elite experience and talent.
DeleteThe tackling issues have to get cleaned up. No question there. Even some vets like Paige looked off.
Hill got hit a few times but he also battled and fought back and made some plays. He might be a weak spot on the defense so he needs to keep his head up, get better, and just keep battling. I'm not worried long-term about HIll, but there are some bumps to be expected and Texas used that.
Credit Texas for executing a great game plan all around. Not many teams are going to be able to do what they did. Part of it was having the depth at WR and QB recognition to exploit matchups in the secondary. Part of that was exploiting our lack of depth on the DL. That's, again, a spot where your offense can put you in a position to succeed or fail.
I wouldn't give up on Wink. Maybe he's got some learning to do about the level of play in college, but the defense wasn't why we got blown out yesterday. In that sense maybe there's a lot to be gained from getting worked by a team like Texas. Take that and learn from it because USC, Oregon, and OSU are going to be challenges and they will definitely try to do the same stuff until Michigan can prove they can defend it.
And let's just give credit to Ewers for playing an excellent game. A 5-star talent, a senior multi-year starter, in a stable system with coaching and scheme continuity, throwing to bunch of veteran receivers and TE. The OL too - to stand up to our DL the way they did was very very impressive. Maybe the best OL we see this year. We'll see.
So yeah, they got worked and you would have wanted to see a score in the teens or 20s and a few more stops by our guys. But defensively, it's a fall off, not a disaster.
Offense is whole other matter...
Ewers was a lot more fluid in the pocket than I expected. Great job sliding & stepping up
DeleteTheir OL was top notch. Sarkisian pumped the breaks, and it could have been a lot more ugly
There are certainly some busts at times at QB, but Ewers is definitely a guy where you can tell why he was the #1 QB recruit a few years ago.
DeleteYes - the 5-star talent was evident as was his comfort in executing their offense. Which makes sense with coaching stability, a lot of OL returning, and veteran WRs.
DeleteExact opposite for Michigan. A walk-on QB, new HC/OC, 5 new starters on OL, and an unexceptional and young WR rotation.
247's Zach Shaw was making a big deal in the lead-up to this season about Texas bringing back its HC, OC, DC, QB, and strength coach. I guess that correlates to having success, just like it did at Michigan in 2023 when Michigan retained Harbaugh, Moore, Minter, McCarthy, and Herbert.
DeleteBowling Green. NIllinois! sFlorida. Lots of teams closed the talent gap today, outplaying expectations
ReplyDeleteWatching Boise now, with their tiny QB completing less than half his passes at less than 4ypa, but taking it to The Ducks in Auzten ... any other big school and that tiny RB Jeanty would be a Heisman frontrunner
Our boys have their work cut out for them, but all goals are still within reach
I am sorry but I cannot give the defense a pass because our offense sucks.
ReplyDeleteFirst drive: 51 yard (defense is still fresh)
Second drive: 56 yards (defense is still fresh)
Michigan offense then went on a 5 minute long FG drive.
Third drive: 76 yards
Based on the first 3 drive alone, how can you say that the defense is done in by the tepid offense. Joel Klatt said during the game that Texas went more conservative in their playcalling in the second half because they know our offense cannot do anything. That is why they scored less points in the second half. It is not because our defense suddenly toughened up.
I don't think anyone's asking for a pass
DeleteOn that first 3rd Down conversion, Hill got beat. On the first TD, Hill got turned. While Texas did let up, Hill didn't lose composure, he cleaned up. Overwhelmed but not defeated. He'll improve
That first drive was long (6min). So yeah, our D got tired. They only got a four play break before going right back out there ... backups got worked, and that was that
Falloff from last year is accurate. Lacking depth is accurate ... no help from offense is blatantly obvious, and costly
I'm not giving the defense a pass. There is obviously less depth, and we've known that since the off-season began. It's been much discussed that Grant/Graham/Benny are very good, but last year Kris Jenkins and Cam Goode made for 5 solid defensive tackles. Last year Stewart and Moore were backing up McGregor and Harrell. That was a great top four edges.
DeleteJosaiah Stewart and Derrick Moore were the #4 and #11 graded defensive players to PFF last year as backups. Moore was #11 and had a grade of 77.8. This year Guy is #11, but his grade is 63.1 . . . and Cameron Brandt is #19.
HOWEVER, the offense couldn't do anything. We know this because they only scored 3 points in the first half. Michigan had only run something like 11 offensive plays halfway through the second quarter. They were on pace for about 30 offensive snaps for the entire game, which is pitiful. Michigan has to find a way to extend drives, get Graham/Grant off the field so they can rest, etc.
The starting defense is pretty good, and then things get iffy pretty quickly. Texas's offense is pretty good, and they're still going to be good when a team goes to its backups, because Ewers, the OL, and their receiving targets don't need to come off the field as much.
Losing Jenkins and Barner were underplayed issues in the off-season. Because we have elite talent at DT and TE these were generally glossed over but we really did not have replacements lined up at all.
DeleteJenkins was a 2nd rounder and the assumptions was that Graham/Benny/Grant were just going to take on more snaps and be OK. But all 3 of those guys were already playing a lot - they need a 4th (not to mention a 5th). We tried to get another DT in the portal for a reason. Pierce and Etta aren't there and Iwunnah isn't it.
Barner was a 4th round pick. I talked about it in the off-season but Loveland is not an in-line TE. He can't do everything and can't be expected to thrive as a blocker when We also need him to be a WR for us. As with DT you can't have one guy doing multiple people's jobs. Barner was functioning as the in-line TE and a critical component of the run game last year (like Schoon the year before). He played more snaps than Loveland. There is no replacement for him. Loveland is improved as a blocker but got pushed back a few times and is not Barner. Klein maybe someday can get there, but Klein didn't play at all last year and they were already thin at TE. A couple mediocre players were ahead of him, and leap or no leap, that meant it was going to take him time to be there as a blocker.
Two guys who just flat out were not replaced and are missed.
There are other issues of course, but most of those were known and discussed in detail. I feel like with all the star power out the door and the context of the star power returning, Jenkins and Barner didn't get the attention they deserved. A second round pick and a fourth round pick, respectively. But because those positions are ones where we had stars returning we didn't fully account for the losses.
FWIW, Iwunnah is currently the #2 overall player on defense, according to PFF. He's only had 10 snaps, so I'm not saying he's a star or anything. But I'm not sure how you're reaching the conclusion that he's not it. Maybe he's good enough to be this year's Cam Goode.
DeleteMostly because he was behind Pierce last year as a senior, barely plays now (as you note) despite the need, and got no meaningful hype about making a leap in the offseason.
DeleteCam Goode did a whole lot more than Iwunnah. At UCF before he transferred, and in 2022 (9 games played including meaningful downs against TCU).
So no, Iwunnah isn't this year's Goode. That's not realistic.
@ Lank 2:34 p.m.
DeleteWell, there was some talk about Iwunnah back in the spring having moved up in the rotation, and he's #2 on the team when it comes to PFF grade. We can talk about the past, or we can talk about right now. RIGHT NOW he seems to be doing okay.
Cam Goode had a PFF grade of 69.3 and 61.2 in the first two weeks last year, which were games against ECU and UNLV. Iwunnah is at 67.0 against Fresno State and 82.6 against Texas in 2024.
Goode earned playing time when Michigan didn't need him. Iwunnah is barely playing when Michigan does. That's very different.
DeleteHe is not Goode. He has not played, in a single game, for 3 years. He is being trusted with just 10 snaps through the first 2 games when DT depth is noticeably an issue. These datapoints trump whatever PFF says about 6 snaps against Texas.
There was SOME talk in Spring about Iwunnah, yes, but by default. When there's no other candidates of course there's some talk. We lost Jenkins and Goode from the rotation. Pierce was next man up and then it's.... Iwunnah and Etta. There's no competition here, the guys who are there all will get talk.
I think a grade based on 10 snaps is irrelevant. The fact that a senior has just 10 snaps when Etta and Pierce are not looking good tells you all you need to know.
But OK - I take your point and will hope for a senior year leap from Iwunnah. I will not hold my breath.
@Thunder September 8, at 8:03 PM, it's not just PFF. The MGo crew is high on Ike on their podcast, and this week's UFR has him with one of the more favorable grades & reviews ... Etta on the other hand is added to the pile of evidence confirming it takes more than weight to convert a DE or tweener to DT
DeleteYeah, I rewatched the game, and I thought Etta played pretty well. It surprises me a little bit that he didn't get a little more playing time maybe last year to get him ready, because he looks decent. Perhaps there are injury/discipline issues that have had an effect, I guess, but he didn't look out of place.
DeleteIke got most of his 6 snaps on garbage time. The top 2 backups at edge got 25+ snaps.
DeleteIt's great that he played well in his 6 snaps at the end of the game and I guess this is moving the needle for some folks. I'm going to say it's not that relevant... and hope I'm wrong.
Prediction: Pierce will remain ahead of Ike and Etta in snap count for the rest of the year - because he's the better player.
Clipped from the middle of the 2Q ...
Deletehttps://youtu.be/vOlp2UJRPPA?si=01vZXdk1Zu10q7AN
Snap count notes from Saturday:
DeleteBrandyn Hillman - 27
Jimmy Rolder - 26
Ike Iwunnah - 26
TJ Guy - 25
Trey Pierce - 24
Rayshaun Benny - 22
Cameron Brandt - 21
Wesley Walker - 21
Enow Etta - 20
Iwunnah got 2 more snaps than Pierce. Unfortunately both show up on the list of the 5 lowest PFF scores on the day.
Worst
Derrick Moore - 57.3
Quinten Johnson - 59.0
Jaishawn Barham - 61.0
Trey Pierce - 62.1
Ike Iwunnah - 64.0
Seems like the PFF score Iwunnah landed during his 6 snaps against Texas might not be a great indicator. Not that Pierce was better against Arkansas state, but he's a sophomore.
It seems both are going to see meaningful downs with Jenkins and Goode gone from the 5-man rotation on the inside. We need at least one of them to step up and play well enough to avoid being overwhelmed when Grant/Graham/Benny need a breather.
FWIW, MGo was high on Ike again. I only noticed him the first half, and it was pushing the line back. I'd have to look again for the 2nd, but I'm assuming the entire D got cooked on the field & in scoring
DeleteMoore was high on on Ike too, in his press conference
Basically, someone has no idea what they're watching ... let the lies continue
By the way, I noticed up above that I said I thought "Etta" played pretty well against Texas. I meant Ike Iwunnah. Etta got pushed around.
DeleteAnd yes, again I thought Iwunnah looked decent. Had a TFL. Cam Goode had 3.5 TFLs as a sixth year senior (including 1.5 against UNLV/BGSU), so Iwunnah isn't far behind that pace, even though he never stepped on the field until a couple weeks ago.
I hope Iwunnah proves my skepticism wrong. His snap count vs Ark State did not indicate to me the 6 snap performance that PFF and Mgoblog liked is a needle-mover. But I hope it is.
DeleteTFLs aren't much of an indicator for nose tackle. Bryan Mone had 5 in his entire career but still played in the NFL.
from what i saw yesterday, our defense was closer to #20 in the country than top 5. not saying it is a terrible defense. just below pre-season expectation.
ReplyDeleteThis is possible. Also possible they are still top 5, Texas was THAT good, and Hill, Berry, and a few others (like ahem, Wink) need a little more time to settle in.
Delete